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Regular Dakkanaut




To clarify this threads title IMO marines are no longer the tier 0 menace this forum and many others have complained about for months (years?) Their decline has been slow due to how many options of units and supplements this army has access to, but with the release of the new DE book I think we’ve finally reached the point where the army as a whole isn’t on a tier of it’s own.

Now to be clear, certain builds like ravenwing heavy DA armies and white scars are still competitive options, but as more and more rules for other armies get released, it’s becoming clear that the base marine dex isn’t that strong. Marines are back to having the same problem they have had most editions. They are good at everything, but not masters of anything. Want a tanky melee unit? Sure bladeguard and DW terminators are good, but DG deathshroud are better. Want efficient shooting? Eradicators have been complained about a ton, but they don’t hold a candle against retributors. Fast melee units? Bikers, vanguard vets, and sang guard are nice, but many Drukhari units have those beat. This issue is compounded by the fact that everything in a marine army is expensive, so marine players are forced to pick and choose what kind of units they want to play. Also many of these units lack good inv saves, so marines die a lot faster than some armies.

Some here won’t notice the armies apparent weakening as marines are still good in certain matchups and in more casual games, but i can bet many DG and sisters players have already starting feeling better playing against them.

Frankly I am relieved the marine era is finally over, as the army was too strong for too long .That said I think many will be surprised by how quickly we see the return of “how do we fix marines/Why are marines so bad? ”threads.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2021/04/07 12:12:58


 
   
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Yep. In the competitive setting, we have entered into something of a 'predatory meta' where a faction or playstyle has been a fixture of the meta for so long that the place of top dog is now a fight between the things that counter the common thing.

In reality, what faction a person is playing is generally secondary to what playstyle they're bringing to the table. A Custodes list, a Necron list, a space marine list and some Death Guard lists all work off of a similar playstyle of mid-toughness infantry with good save values and low points cost per wound locking down and holding objectives while putting out enough offense to disrupt an opponent's scoring.

That playstyle at the peak of marine dominance was 70-75% of the meta, and now sits closer around 40-50% based on fairly recent numbers (lists heavily revolving around Magnus and Mortarion are more superheavy oriented death star setups than true heavy infantry lists, so it's not possible to really say that Death Guard numbers contribute to the numbers of the MEQ oriented playstyle)

The most similar period of time I was involved in the competitive 40k scene was late in 7th edition, when "The Eldar List" had been such a fixture for such a long time that the lists actually winning events were fairly rarely scatterbikes+wraithknights, but Eldar still represented a gigantic chunk of the play base.Instead the top tables were generally a fight between a list that could best prey on Eldar but could also beat the other eldar-killers.

"I can't believe all these tryhard WAACs out there just care about winning all the time when it's supposed to be a game for fun!!!!!!! Also here's my 27 page essay on why marines are OP and Orkz should get a bunch of OP rules so I can win more games

-the_scotsman"

-ERJAK 
   
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Hamburg

Well, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic that the Marine era is over.
Codex creep during an edition is a fact.
However, Marines are so good and versatile in many ways that their competitiveness will not suffer (much).

Former moderator 40kOnline

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Illumini: "And thank you for not finishing your post with a "" I'm sorry, but after 7200 's that has to be the most annoying sign-off ever."

Armies: Eldar, Necrons, Blood Angels, Grey Knights; World Eaters (30k); Bloodbound; Cryx, Circle, Cyriss 
   
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 wuestenfux wrote:
Well, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic that the Marine era is over.
Codex creep during an edition is a fact.
However, Marines are so good and versatile in many ways that their competitiveness will not suffer (much).


Marine overall winrate has been sitting at or around 50% for a while now. They are factually balanced against other competitively viable factions currently. How much of that is due to external balancing from GW or internal balancing from people stacking their lists with marines in mind is not knowable.

"I can't believe all these tryhard WAACs out there just care about winning all the time when it's supposed to be a game for fun!!!!!!! Also here's my 27 page essay on why marines are OP and Orkz should get a bunch of OP rules so I can win more games

-the_scotsman"

-ERJAK 
   
Made in gb
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London

Unless you are a deathwatch marine, in which case your era never started :( (oh woe is my loss of special ammo on my terminators...)
   
Made in ca
Longtime Dakkanaut





I think you may misunderstand the issues people have with space marines.

It doesn't matter if you're not dominating the game; if you have 3-4 x as many models and options than the rest of us and you're still getting new kits, we're still gonna rip on the faction. If I had 100 + Drukhari kits all in plastic to choose from, or 100 + Sisters kits, I think I'd be more likely to be receptive to Space Marine player's complaints about anything.

And yeah, there have been threads complaining about power- mostly Eradicators, but I think there have been far more about the disproportionate amount of model support marines receive. Problem A is getting to be less problematic. Problem B probably isn't going anywhere.

And I'm writing this at a time when we're in a bit of a marine lull; it's been a month or so since the last Marine release, and they've been previewing non-marine models. Sisters are getting four kits including a tank and a walker; it looks like it will be a fair number of kits for Orks too. But not a lot for Death Guard, Drukhari or Admech.

Drukhari's my second army; I'm happy with their dex, I'm happy that our combat patrol box is the best one they've released so far- heck I even like Lelith and I'm grateful for a box set. Not enough to make me forget that Mandrakes, Beasts and the Court of the Archon are still finecast, or that every Space Marine Lieutenant after the fist could have been a plastic Slyth or Lhamaean.

It's fun to search GW's store by unit type and see that sisters don't have an Aircraft, but marines have two dual build kits, a single, and two faction specific flyers. I guess what I mean is it's fun if you're a marine player.

Anyway, it is objectively better that the power gap is closing. But I'd also warn you about picking the best unit in every army and comparing it to a marine unit without looking at the rest of the army. I'm also not sure I buy your comparison between Eradicators and Retributors; when either unit is shooting, they're close; when they are getting shot at, there is 0 comparison.

Still, Marines aren't killing the tournament circuit right now, so Erad vs Ret aside, your point stands; the power gap is not what we once perceived it to be.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/04/07 13:20:45


 
   
Made in us
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Things that still suck still suck however.

"Don't Feed the Troll" 
   
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I also think that, speaking personally, there's a large shift in how to approach space marines that needed to happen post-2.0dex. The additional offensive and defensive tools available to space marines (and other post-2.0 MEQ armies) necessitates treating basic marine infantry units very differently than you did before.

where before, I would think nothing of charging a MEQ unit with a cheap chaff squad to tie them up and prevent them shooting, now I consider it a much better use of that chaff squad to break LOS with the marine squad, hunker down and begin performing an action or stand on an objective. Most marine units will simply be able to punch their way out of any attempt to cause them harm by light infantry, and it's actually now easier for light infantry to meaningfully interact with superheavy vehicles than it is to interact with MEQ elite infantry, because superheavies rarely have the means to wipe them out completely for free outside of their normal activation order, wheras if you charge a 5-man squad of primaris marines, those 16 attacks have a fairly good chance of simply carving up all or most of your light infantry squad.

You can still use light infantry for what their primary purpose in 40k is against MEQs - forcing an opponent to target a cheap, suboptimal target unit instead of the thing in your army that is an actual threat - you just have to take a completely different approach to it now. Flinging a min squad of ork boyz or Kommandos into a squad of primaris marines is not a smart move, even though your unit is a dedicated melee combatant and theirs is essentially a stationary gun turret with a range nearly equal to the board width.

This is very counterintuitive and a lot of people still struggle with it. 2.0dex made the marine army a puzzle for the other player to solve - ideal for an army intended for beginners.

"I can't believe all these tryhard WAACs out there just care about winning all the time when it's supposed to be a game for fun!!!!!!! Also here's my 27 page essay on why marines are OP and Orkz should get a bunch of OP rules so I can win more games

-the_scotsman"

-ERJAK 
   
Made in us
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No that you mentioned they haven't received any new models, they will be receiving a full re-vamp of the Reivers next week.....Thanks!

Not going to lie, I think this is pretty simple. GW is going to flood the market with the faction that people buy and play. The data shows the clear majority of players play some form of Astartes force, either due to product upselling or forcing gak onto customers, doesn't matter. The vast majority of players both common and elite, play power armor. I would honestly love to know where the paints rank in purchases? Obviously Nuln oil and the metal paints would be near the top?
   
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Ladies Love the Vibro-Cannon Operator






Hamburg

the_scotsman wrote:
 wuestenfux wrote:
Well, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic that the Marine era is over.
Codex creep during an edition is a fact.
However, Marines are so good and versatile in many ways that their competitiveness will not suffer (much).


Marine overall winrate has been sitting at or around 50% for a while now. They are factually balanced against other competitively viable factions currently. How much of that is due to external balancing from GW or internal balancing from people stacking their lists with marines in mind is not knowable.

Overall winning rate is not decisive.
GW has little support for tourneys.
Sales (pound signs in the eyes) count and nothing else.
If you look as GW's sale figures, they do everything right atm.
And a big proportion of GW's success comes from the faction of Marines - more than 100 data sheets and still growing (and more than 30 variations of bolters of course).

Former moderator 40kOnline

Lanchester's square law - please obey in list building!

Illumini: "And thank you for not finishing your post with a "" I'm sorry, but after 7200 's that has to be the most annoying sign-off ever."

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Right behind you.

Your post was about competitiveness and then you claim that "winning rate is not decisive"?

I don't understand. What is decisive with regards to competitiveness?
   
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Fixture of Dakka





 wuestenfux wrote:
Well, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic that the Marine era is over.
Codex creep during an edition is a fact.
However, Marines are so good and versatile in many ways that their competitiveness will not suffer (much).


I'm curious to see how marine players react to oncoming changes.

D3+3 is getting quite common. That means a whole attack bike gone shifting people back to Eradicators ( also vulnerable ) or something else. Add on that D2 is getting pushed into lots of places too, it becomes pretty dangerous to be a marine.

Since marines don't have W1 they are going to need to layer W2 / W3. Heavy Intercessors are probably going to be necessary to get there without overspending on specialists.

   
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Title is inaccurate - marines have not been the boogeyman in 9th except in your own imaginations. The whole time it's just been ... sisters/custodes/daemons/quinn.

Marines just get played a lot. If you compare the play rate with expected win rate (top finish) at tournaments - it is fairly average.

8.5 was really problematic but the majority of the 8.5 rules are busted for all armies. Yall just don't know that cause nearly no one played during that period. (see pandemic)

9.0 marines is a little different. Everything costs more points but a few new units and a few got better. A few strats got better. Errads/Attack bikes are quite good but compared to a unit of quinn troopers -1 to hit and wound transport from a free auto include 9" aura....give me a GD break! It is not even in the same ballpark.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/04/07 15:15:12


If we fail to anticipate the unforeseen or expect the unexpected in a universe of infinite possibilities, we may find ourselves at the mercy of anyone or anything that cannot be programmed, categorized or easily referenced.
- Fox Mulder 
   
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 Xenomancers wrote:
Title is inaccurate - marines have not been the boogeyman in 9th except in your own imaginations. The whole time it's just been ... sisters/custodes/daemons/quinn.

Marines just get played a lot. If you compare the play rate with expected win rate (top finish) at tournaments - it is fairly average.

8.5 was really problematic but the majority of the 8.5 rules are busted for all armies. Yall just don't know that cause nearly no one played during that period. (see pandemic)

9.0 marines is a little different. Everything costs more points but a few new units and a few got better. A few strats got better. Errads/Attack bikes are quite good but compared to a unit of quinn troopers -1 to hit and wound transport from a free auto include 9" aura....give me a GD break! It is not even in the same ballpark.


If they're not in the same ballpark, how do we see lists featuring eradicators and attack bikes regularly topping tournaments?

Harlequins as of march 2021 are sitting at a 55% wr, 2% higher than the top performing space marine chapter, 1% higher than Custodes, and 2% lower than Death Guard. Chaos Daemons are sitting at a perfect 50%. It would appear to me that elite infantry armies have found some ways of dealing with the initial wave of MEQ-eaters.

Barring the obvious underperforming factions in desperate need of updates - GSC, Tau, Guard, Eldar, CSM, and the factions hard-screwed by the new secondary mission structure - knights, chaos knights, tsons, GK - the meta is appearing extremely healthy right now. 15 factions have winrates within 5% of 50%, less of a variance than which player goes first/second. One single faction is hitting 60%. Comparing to the wacko world of 65%+ winrate iron hands post 8.5 and harlequins super early in 9th, things are looking extremely good and the only real flop 'dex of the edition so far is deathwatch.

death Guard are hitting a little harder than expected - pulling 57%, but we are still only a month out from their codex and the meta hasn't adapted to them yet, but look at these numbers:

-Space Wolves 52%
-Blood Angels 50%
-Dark Angels 49%
-Necrons 50%
-Space Marines 47%

^THAT's 9th edition encroaching codex creep? That looks to me like an EXTREMELY well balanced release so far.

"I can't believe all these tryhard WAACs out there just care about winning all the time when it's supposed to be a game for fun!!!!!!! Also here's my 27 page essay on why marines are OP and Orkz should get a bunch of OP rules so I can win more games

-the_scotsman"

-ERJAK 
   
Made in gb
Secretive Dark Angels Veteran






I suppose the one advantage of the marine codex if it does in fact suffer from codex creep in the end is that bar one or two units, in theory all are playable with the right price point, their rules aren't being necessarily outclassed (other than the lascannon equivalent change that has come long).

So no big FAQ is needed to amend them at some point (or a new codex), just point cost tweaking which we may see happen more often in 9th and it be more effective also.

I'd also like to caution against the idea of going off of tournaments and win rates at the moment. A hell of a lot of 40k players globally are still not playing at the moment, so the data is likely to be skewed in some respect.

My hobby instagram account: @the_shroud_of_vigilance
My Shroud of Vigilance Hobby update blog for me detailed updates and lore on the faction:
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Made in us
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the_scotsman wrote:
^THAT's 9th edition encroaching codex creep? That looks to me like an EXTREMELY well balanced release so far.


I don't know how things might shape up as we go forward ( and more people can play ), but I really like seeing the variety of armies reaching top tables. Just about every army has had representation in the top 3 ( no GSC or T'au ). Some aren't as frequent, but other than that it really looks like an environment I'd like to play in.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/04/07 16:52:28


   
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"marines just get played a lot" I explained why.

We really need a real stat accumulation center. looking at all of 40k stats data...its saying there are only 8 iron hands list since the start of 9th...that is obviously not true. Where are you getting these stats?


If we fail to anticipate the unforeseen or expect the unexpected in a universe of infinite possibilities, we may find ourselves at the mercy of anyone or anything that cannot be programmed, categorized or easily referenced.
- Fox Mulder 
   
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Longtime Dakkanaut




It's just the effect of codex creep. Necrons went from top-tier to mid-tier as well. GW seems to be doubling down on codex creep in 9th edition, and if you listen to people who playtest, they're subtly telling you it's going to continue (i.e. Brian from TT a few weeks ago was asked whether he thinks codex creep will continue and said yes, it will because for a lot of reasons it suits GW's model).

Space Marines will get a 9th edition Codex 2.0 in a year (probably before some other factions even get a first codex) that will once again put them top of the heap.

   
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NE Ohio, USA

Supreme tourney menace atm or not, ill still see plenty of SMs in my circles & local shops.

And if the Eldar were to get a 100% awesome revamp, with the most beautiful plastics seen to date, tomorrow?
That still wouldn't shut people up from complaining about Marines.
"They've got too much, they're too good, they're too bad, they recieved too much stuff in the past....", etc.
   
Made in us
Fixture of Dakka





 Xenomancers wrote:
"marines just get played a lot" I explained why.

We really need a real stat accumulation center. looking at all of 40k stats data...its saying there are only 8 iron hands list since the start of 9th...that is obviously not true. Where are you getting these stats?



Stats pulled are typically not for small tournaments. Usually on the 28/30 man make the cut for analysis.

   
Made in us
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 Daedalus81 wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:
"marines just get played a lot" I explained why.

We really need a real stat accumulation center. looking at all of 40k stats data...its saying there are only 8 iron hands list since the start of 9th...that is obviously not true. Where are you getting these stats?



Stats pulled are typically not for small tournaments. Usually on the 28/30 man make the cut for analysis.

That is an okay metric I guess if that is what they are doing. I still find it hard to believe only 8 iron hands lists have been played since the start of 9th edition. I wouldn't be surprised if a single 50ish man tournament had 8 iron hands list in it overall. Something is not right with the calculations on their right now. which makes me very skeptical. There has gotta be something better than this site anyways. Why don't the ITC AP collect this data and make it easily accessible and organized.

If we fail to anticipate the unforeseen or expect the unexpected in a universe of infinite possibilities, we may find ourselves at the mercy of anyone or anything that cannot be programmed, categorized or easily referenced.
- Fox Mulder 
   
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NE Ohio, USA

yukishiro1 wrote:
It's just the effect of codex creep. Necrons went from top-tier to mid-tier as well. GW seems to be doubling down on codex creep in 9th edition, and if you listen to people who playtest, they're subtly telling you it's going to continue (i.e. Brian from TT a few weeks ago was asked whether he thinks codex creep will continue and said yes, it will because for a lot of reasons it suits GW's model).


A truly shocking revelation.
Predicting the continuation of Codex Creep is about as hard as figuring out that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow.
   
Made in us
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yukishiro1 wrote:
It's just the effect of codex creep. Necrons went from top-tier to mid-tier as well. GW seems to be doubling down on codex creep in 9th edition, and if you listen to people who playtest, they're subtly telling you it's going to continue (i.e. Brian from TT a few weeks ago was asked whether he thinks codex creep will continue and said yes, it will because for a lot of reasons it suits GW's model).

Space Marines will get a 9th edition Codex 2.0 in a year (probably before some other factions even get a first codex) that will once again put them top of the heap.



I've said it before and I'll say it again - perception is everything.

Necrons falling down to mid-tier isn't a bad thing at all - at least as long as they maintain that level.

DG & DA are armies that if you are unfamiliar with can really take you for a ride. This can result is those armies taking WWWLL or WWWWL more often, because they abuse the more casual players early in a tournament. That doesn't mean they're superior and that the "Tier 2" armies can't beat them. This gives them a good WR, but not necessarily a lot of tournament wins. In fact most Tier 1 armies aren't 9th edition books...

   
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Longtime Dakkanaut





ccs wrote:
Supreme tourney menace atm or not, ill still see plenty of SMs in my circles & local shops.

And if the Eldar were to get a 100% awesome revamp, with the most beautiful plastics seen to date, tomorrow?
That still wouldn't shut people up from complaining about Marines.
"They've got too much, they're too good, they're too bad, they recieved too much stuff in the past....", etc.


A good Eldar revamp would shut me up for a while at least. Heck, if they had given DE just one of plastic Mandrakes, Court of the Archon or Beasts, I'd have been less likely to make the post I made earlier today. But they didn't.

Like I said, glad Sisters are getting 4 units- I'm one of the few who actually likes all four models previewed thus far; glad orks are getting some new models too. By December I think we'll be at a better playing field; by then all the Ork and Sister models should be out, plus a lot of models for other factions- maybe even another big range refresh, like CWE or Guard. Time will tell.
   
Made in gb
Regular Dakkanaut




Whilst global pandemic probably has influenced tournament results, I would say that the results of those tournaments that have been run are probably reasonably representative (so long as they used the GT Mission pack).

On this basis I would be confident that these limited results are way way more representative than most of the information available for 8E given that such data no longer has to transcend the notable differences between vanilla (e.g Eternal War/ Maelstrom of War) Missions and ITC Missions and some of the marked differences in performance observed between these two environments.
   
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ccs wrote:
yukishiro1 wrote:
It's just the effect of codex creep. Necrons went from top-tier to mid-tier as well. GW seems to be doubling down on codex creep in 9th edition, and if you listen to people who playtest, they're subtly telling you it's going to continue (i.e. Brian from TT a few weeks ago was asked whether he thinks codex creep will continue and said yes, it will because for a lot of reasons it suits GW's model).


A truly shocking revelation.
Predicting the continuation of Codex Creep is about as hard as figuring out that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow.


The point is that he in fact knows it will continue, because he's playtesting those books. When he says he thinks it'll continue, he's not predicting, he's telling you what's going to happen with a nudge and a wink.

Space Marines were top dog at the end of 8th and the beginning of 9th because in both cases they had a new book that out codex-creeped the competition. They're falling back to "only good" now because of other, newer books that out-codex-creep them. They'll be back on top when the 9th edition SM 2.0 book comes out (and we all know it will happen, don't kid yourself that they'll actually let SM go a full edition with only one codex).
   
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The drukhari codex is fresh and has imagined possibilities.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out over time and hundreds of competitive games. My opinion- Drukhari will be competitive, but it won't unseat Marines as being tier 0 boogeymen. It will be less of a power gap between the marines and other factions.
   
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blaktoof wrote:
The drukhari codex is fresh and has imagined possibilities.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out over time and hundreds of competitive games. My opinion- Drukhari will be competitive, but it won't unseat Marines as being tier 0 boogeymen. It will be less of a power gap between the marines and other factions.


Marines are basically already unseated. Harlies, Chaos Soup (MW spamming monster mash), Sisters of Battle and Dark Angels are the generally agreed upon best. Death Guard and AdMech are 'maybes' in the S-class.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/04/07 19:29:52


 
   
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DA are marines. That, incidentally, is part of why Marines are the target of so much ire. Because they're all interchangeable, and because they get more frequent codex releases than anybody else, the chance of any one of them being top dog at a given time is extremely high.

There are a ton of Blue Angels going around right now, for example - the chaosy kind, not the vampiric kind.
   
Made in ca
Fresh-Faced New User




FezzikDaBullgryn wrote:
No that you mentioned they haven't received any new models, they will be receiving a full re-vamp of the Reivers next week.....Thanks!

Not going to lie, I think this is pretty simple. GW is going to flood the market with the faction that people buy and play. The data shows the clear majority of players play some form of Astartes force, either due to product upselling or forcing gak onto customers, doesn't matter. The vast majority of players both common and elite, play power armor. I would honestly love to know where the paints rank in purchases? Obviously Nuln oil and the metal paints would be near the top?




So what, what’s wrong with that? Like are trying too make a dig at marine players, or just a dig at people who don’t paint at apparently your master level.
   
 
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