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There have been multiple lore threads on the comparisons. Today, we do a tabletop comparison.

We will be using an Intercessor Squad against an Infantry Squad. The Primaris Space Marine will be armed with a Bolt Rifle and CCW. The Guardsman will be armed with a Lasgun and CCW.

Ranged Combat:

2 Bolt Rifle shots have a 66% chance to hit, 66% chance to wound, and 83% chance to deal an unsaved wound. This means each volley from a Bolt Rifle has a 20/27 chance of damaging a Guardsman. Guardsman only have 1 Wound, so any damage counts as a kill. It takes 2 Space Marines (rounding up) or 27/20 Space Marines to reliably kill one Guardsman in a single Shooting Phase.

1 Lasgun shot has a 50% chance to hit, 33% chance to wound, and 33% chance to penetrate armor. This means each shot from a lasgun has 1/18 chance of damaging a Space Marine. Space Marines have 2 wounds, so there is a 1/36 chance of killing a Space Marine with a rapid fire Lasgun volley. It takes 36 Guardsman at long-range to reliably kill one Space Marine.

Melee Combat:

A Space Marine CCW has 3 attacks with a 66% chance to hit, 66% chance to wound, and 66% chance to pierce armor. That means there is an 8/9 chance of damaging the Guardsman. Guardsman still only have one wound.

A Guardsman CCW has 1 attack that has a 50% chance to hit, 33% chance to wound, and a 33% chance to pierce armor. That means there is an 1/18 chance of damaging the Space Marine. Same sequence as the lasgun.

Orders & Oath of Moment

Guardsman have rapid fire orders that give them up to 3 attacks per lasgun. That lowers the ratio down to 9 Guardsman per Space Marine at half-range. Guardsman also have melee orders that lower the CCW ratio down to 27 Guardsman to kill a Space Marine in melee.

Space Marines have Oath of Moment. If the Guardsman squad is selected, Space Marine Bolt Rifles have an 88% chance to hit, 83% chance to wound, and 83% chance to pierce armor. This gives each shot a 50/81 chance of killing a Guardsman. A 2 shot volley will probably kill 100/81 Guardsman. With the CCW, it becomes 88% chance to hit, 83% chance to wound, and 66% chance to pierce armor. That is only a 40/81 chance to kill, but with three attacks per Space Marine, that also exceeds 1 kill per Space Marine. At this rate, a single Space Marine can reliably kill a Guardsman in one combat phase.

I won't cover subfaction boosts and stratagems, but that can also have an effect.

Conclusion:

It takes 2 Space Marine to reliably kill a Guardsman while it takes 36 Guardsman to reliably kill a Space Marine. There is an 80/3 ratio gap. I wonder how the ratio changes when earlier editions are looked at.

I'll come back later with Computer analysis.

I recommend including how many space marines it takes to kill a space marine.

Edit: Actually do the same for GEQ too.

I'd punch numbers rn but I'm in the car.

I'd also suggest something similar to what medical professionals call LD50 (Lethal Dose for 50% of people or something similar). How many Guardsman can still outnumber how many Marines - its something of an extremely extreme skew. Its probably not as extreme as in other situations - the one I normally use as an example is Grots vs Knights. The Imperial Knight can't kill Grots fast enough to outscore them. 500 Points of Big Knight can only stand on the one objective at a time, 500 Points of Grots can stand on all of them, and it doesn't matter if they can't hurt the Knight.

There will be some point where Intercessors just can't keep up with Guardsman numbers. that point may or may not be found within 2,000 points.

Intercessors have 4 shots each if they all shoot at the same target, so at range the difference will get even bigger.

Here's the computer analysis: https://pastebin.com/2ZAs3yGD

I used Python to simulate basic 40k Combat. I also decided to use Tactical Squad for the comparison instead of Primaris Intercessor Squad now.

The most balanced results were when there were 100 Space Marines and 462 Guardsman. In other words, one Space Marine is worth 4.62 Guardsmen.

The program readout is as follows:

Guardsmen won 50.47% of the time.
Median wounds remaining for the winner: 167.0 (36.00%)
There was a median of 14 rounds.
The first attacker won 91.78% of the time.

=== Code Execution Successful ===

This analysis is identical for the Fight Phase since the profiles for the Bolter & CCW are identical along with the Lasgun & CCW.

If Guardsmen use Volley fire, the ratio drops to 2.68 Guardsmen per Space Marine. If the Guardsmen have Take Cover, it decreases to 4.01 Guardsmen per Space Marine. If the Guardsmen use Take Aim, it decreases to 4.00 Guardsmen per Space Marine. If the Space Marine use Oath of Moment, the ratio increases to 5.98 Guardsmen per Space Marine.

So overall, Space Marine are worth multiple Guardsmen, but not to a ridiculous amount. It's worth noting that points-wise, each Space Marine is worth 7/3 (2.33) Guardsmen. So Astartes are more point efficient when facing Guardsmen even if they have Volley Fire.

I'm not sure we can draw a lot of conclusions from this given:
* Oath of Moment is naturally going to be at its best in a scenario with a single enemy
* To my knowledge, guardsmen don't have pistols by default meaning the intercessors have a huge advantage once they lock the guardsmen in melee.
* Guardsmen are a pretty great target for intercessors, while marines are not an ideal target for guardsmen (even if they did have their special weapons).
* These units arguably have different jobs. Intercessors are kind of expected to pull their weight offensively while guardsmen are kind of just there to take up space/screen/throw meat into the grinder on objectives.

Unless I'm missing something, all this really shows is how efficient intercessors are into a preferred target vs how efficient guardsmen are into a non-preferred target.

What is the preferred target of guardsmen?

 Da Boss wrote:
What is the preferred target of guardsmen?

Something like gaunts I suppose. Lower toughness. Not great armor. But regardless of what the two units are shooting at, there are a lot of other factors that go into how useful they are for their points. Like, we can determine which unit is more cost effective at murdering unit X, but there would still be differences in unit roles that wouldn't be accounted for.

Seeing who wins in a shootout is fine. I'm just not sure what we're supposed to do with that information afterwards given that you're probably not taking guardsmen primarily for their lasguns. Or for their guns in general, really.

If I’m right in thinking, don’t Bolt Rifles now have multiple profiles?

That’s something you’d need to factor in, as they’d have options simply not open to “well, you can rapid fire and that’s about it” Lasguns?

There’s also Potential.

10 Lasguns simply cannot kill 10 Marines in a single turn. Even if everything hits, everything wounds, and no saves are made? You’ve still just those 10 shots, outside of Rapid Fire.

5 Intercessors shooting up Guardsman? Whilst not particularly likely, it’s entirely possible they could gun down a whole squad of Guardsman in a single turn, and the odds really aren’t that slim.

Bolt rifles are down to one consolidated stateline on intercessors.

Not that there aren’t a zillion bespoke types of bolters for different squads, but at least each squad is down to one type again.

 Wyldhunt wrote:

Seeing who wins in a shootout is fine. I'm just not sure what we're supposed to do with that information afterwards given that you're probably not taking guardsmen primarily for their lasguns. Or for their guns in general, really.

Well, until this current Codex it up, I DID take Guard infantry squads for their weapons. Their heavy weapon that is.
EVERY squad from 2e (when I started playing Guard) on was built with a heavy weapon. Often a special weapon as well.
The squads primary function was to KEEP THAT GUN FIRING*.
Between all my infantry squads, my heavy weapon platoons, and assorted tanks? It's been the rare opponent who could silence all my Heavy Weapons.
Maje no mistake, my tanks would die & my HW platoons would be obliterated (they were too juicy of targets not to draw fire) - but I've always had 1 more HW in range/LoS/etc....
Now :(

*When primary objective play became dominant the squads added "WHILE SITTING ON THIS SPOT." to that sentence.

 Wyldhunt wrote:
I'm not sure we can draw a lot of conclusions from this given:
* Oath of Moment is naturally going to be at its best in a scenario with a single enemy
* To my knowledge, guardsmen don't have pistols by default meaning the intercessors have a huge advantage once they lock the guardsmen in melee.
* Guardsmen are a pretty great target for intercessors, while marines are not an ideal target for guardsmen (even if they did have their special weapons).
* These units arguably have different jobs. Intercessors are kind of expected to pull their weight offensively while guardsmen are kind of just there to take up space/screen/throw meat into the grinder on objectives.

Unless I'm missing something, all this really shows is how efficient intercessors are into a preferred target vs how efficient guardsmen are into a non-preferred target.

He said he used Tacs not Intercessors - no clue which/if Special/Heavy Weapons were chosen.
They're both BATTLELINE so they both have more similar jobs than I think you're giving them credit for.
A lot of their job isn't contingent on their offensive firepower.
Its a lot harder to quantify/rate their defensive absorption and Action Monkey skills.