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See look, math works in real life too! Imagine that.

 

Edit:

So, using Colonel Ellios example that we can't play enough games to statistically generate useful data or something to that effect, or we don't roll enough dice...

How do the odds in "craps" work?

Posted By Iorek on 06/29/2007 5:57 AM
I understand your point about not being able to determine one die roll with statistics.  If I were to roll one die right now, and get a 5, and then rolled it again, I'd still have a 1/6 chance of getting a 5.

While it is true, when rolling the die a second time, the probability of rolling a 5 would be 1/6, the probability, however, of rolling a 5 on two consecutive die rolls is still 1/36.

Now how does this "math hammer" apply to a real world game of 40k.  Well, lets apply this to my question above with an IG Grenade Launcher  (a question that I'm still waiting for Soulmage to answer).

During army construction and during game play you are simply a decision engine.  You gather data and make what you believe are the proper decisions to enable you to have your desired goal, i.e. winning the game.

So during a game of 40k, it is my turn.  I have an IG Grenade Launcher in what I believe is range to an opposing Falcon's front armor.  The squad is armed with a GL and 9 Lasguns.  Decision time, using my knowledge of the rules, the strength of a GL, and the front armor value of a Falcon I determine that my GL is indeed capable of killing the Falcon.

So armed with only that knowledge I decide on my tactics.  My GL can kill the Falcon, I am in range, no need to move.  During the shooting phase I will surely destroy the Falcon with my trusty Grenade Launcher.

Shooting phase arrives, I fail to destroy the Falcon, and curse the "Dice Gods" for my bad luck.  My opponent subsequently annihilates the squad on his turn.

Now, if I was also armed with some statistical knowledge when I was thinking about my choices during my movement phase I would see that the odds of destroying the Falcon with a GL are 1/2 chance of hitting * 1/6 chance of glancing * 1/6 chance of rolling a 6 to destroy on glance table * 1/6 chance or re-rolling that 6 to destroy on glance table for a whopping 1/432 chance of actually destroying the Falcon with my GL.

Armed with that knowledge, I decide to not sit and simply shoot at the Falcon and move my squad.  But where do I move it, what do I want it to end up doing?  What odds will I be happy with that will cause me to actually shoot the Falcon?  How can I improve my odds for that matter?

More decisions, man this game is hard.

Point is, you use your knowledge of the rules, your knowledge of your army, your knowledge of your opponents army, the current game state, your knowledge of statistics, etc. and apply all that knowledge to help you make the best decisions during game play and during army construction.

Anyone who ignores statistics could not possibly purposely make the "best"  decisions.  Yes they can stumble onto the correct choices, yes they can be incredibly lucky.  But in this game we strive during competition to determine who is the better player, and the better player is the one who is making the better decisions.

From the guy that caused this thread to metamorph into "I'm smarter then thou".