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Interesting.

Looks like the Brits intercepted ISIL communications about a bomb on board.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/11978749/Sharm-el-Sheikh-flights-shutdown-triggered-when-British-spies-uncovered-Isil-bomb-plot-after-Russian-air-crash.html

The FSB now also got Putin to halt all air traffic to Egypt. The bomb scenario is getting more and more likely.
https://www.rt.com/news/321055-russia-halt-flight-egypt/

Someone help me out, why ISIL? I would think the other elements the Russians are actively bombing would be more likely (or maybe they really are...)

Is ISIL just pulling the AlQaeda playbook and going after the biggest elephant they can to make a name?

If true, what is Russia going to do?

If you look at putins history. His mercy is not exactly very high to anyone who is his enemy. That act just made them a enemy if they where not before

Look at the various wars he fought. This man has a backbone and no hands behind his back.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
How does the UK know it was a bomb?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Troodos

Yeah it hit all the news sites this afternoon. Most likely someone planted a bomb on the plane at the airport.

Which calls into question basically any air traffic into or out of Egypt. I'm not surprised Russia stopped all their flights. I'm also fully expecting a significant crackdown within Egypt from Sisi, but only time will tell.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and give the big two thumbs up to Russia's impending revenge.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Frazzled wrote:
Someone help me out, why ISIL? I would think the other elements the Russians are actively bombing would be more likely (or maybe they really are...)

Is ISIL just pulling the AlQaeda playbook and going after the biggest elephant they can to make a name?

If true, what is Russia going to do?

Propoganda dude!

Fighting Russia was the jihadi thing to do before we ever put boots on the ground in Afghanistan. A symbolic strike like this is a "hearts and minds" move for those sick bastards.

 Peter Wiggin wrote:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and give the big two thumbs up to Russia's impending revenge.

Putin doesnt like egg on face, his power in part depends on his personality cult. In fairness he deserves one Vlad Putin is one of the most impressive world leaders on the stage today, and truly deserves the title 'statesman'. Still he wont take being embarassed easily, IMHO Russia would have been amongst the first to come to the conclusion there was a bomb but insisted it was an accident to save face.
Now Russia has to have payback.

Thing is the Russian air force is more than capable of delivering that. The Western nations might send in some drones and fire a handful of missiles accurately. Russia has no problems with dropping a significant tonnage of ordnance. The military economy works differently over there, there is a huge price tag for every drone missile launched and every airstrike launched by the UK or US. The Russians being still a centralised state with terms of its military has overheads but significantly lower ones. They can drop several hundred tons of bombs and not notice the economic cost. Pissing off Russia is not smart.

Apparently a British jet narrowly evaded a missile just a couple of months before this Russian jet was bombed.

Rocket 'attack' on UK tour jet: Pilot with 189 passengers dodged missile above Sharm El Sheikh with just 'seconds to spare from disaster'

Thomson flight from London took evasive action after pilot spotted missile

Holidaymakers were not told they had been just seconds from disaster

Comes amid claims British jihadists discussed ISIS 'mole' in Sharm el-Sheikh moments after a Metrojet plane crash in Sinai, killing 224 on board

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3307741/Rocket-attack-UK-tour-jet.html

if that daily mail article is true (it is the daily mail after all) it sounds very much as if there should have been a no-fly advisory on Sinai at the very least, and probably Egypt in general some time ago

any county that lets missiles from a 'military exercise' (really) so close to a civilian jet is not somebody to be trusted with any countries civilians

Daily Mail is a better source than given credit for.

The often are the only one telling a story not because its untrue, but because no one else will print it.

The Daily Mail was alone in printing the truth about the Gibraltar sell out. Which was confirmed years later by an ex-government minister in his memoires.

'Daily Fail' often just means, honest articles the rest of the press wont touch. I know of controversial and true stories the Daily Mail was the only paper to be interested in only for the source to get cold feet because the Daily Mail was the only paper interested in it.

Sometimes I feel the Daily Mail doesn't understand its own position in society.

Daily mail is not the best. Many agree here I bet however, on breaking news they get often details and breaking news fast.

It may not be 100% accurate at times but they get the news out there and are pretty brave on reporting some topics.

Cancer scares/cures not included, they are mad there. Somthing will kill and cure you in a few weeks.

It seems pretty certain now that it was a bomb. The secret services must be so angry right now
And not because a Russian airplane was bombed, but because the British found out first

 Iron_Captain wrote:
It seems pretty certain now that it was a bomb. The secret services must be so angry right now
And not because a Russian airplane was bombed, but because the British found out first

UK is very compatent Intel wise, yeah embarrassing but the fact is someone did find it out pretty fast and isolated down and identified the attacker.

 jhe90 wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:
It seems pretty certain now that it was a bomb. The secret services must be so angry right now
And not because a Russian airplane was bombed, but because the British found out first

UK is very compatent Intel wise, yeah embarrassing but the fact is someone did find it out pretty fast and isolated down and identified the attacker.

Pretty sure the Sanai branch of ISIS claimed the attack less than 24 hours after it happened.

 Peter Wiggin wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:
It seems pretty certain now that it was a bomb. The secret services must be so angry right now
And not because a Russian airplane was bombed, but because the British found out first

UK is very compatent Intel wise, yeah embarrassing but the fact is someone did find it out pretty fast and isolated down and identified the attacker.

Pretty sure the Sanai branch of ISIS claimed the attack less than 24 hours after it happened.

OK confirmed. Anyone can claim it on twitter. Proof that is sound is harder to get.

The evidence may be circumstantial, but when you have circumstantial evidence and people claiming responsibility its probably what happened.

 jhe90 wrote:

 Peter Wiggin wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:
It seems pretty certain now that it was a bomb. The secret services must be so angry right now
And not because a Russian airplane was bombed, but because the British found out first

UK is very compatent Intel wise, yeah embarrassing but the fact is someone did find it out pretty fast and isolated down and identified the attacker.

Pretty sure the Sanai branch of ISIS claimed the attack less than 24 hours after it happened.

OK confirmed. Anyone can claim it on twitter. Proof that is sound is harder to get.

Point taken.

All I'm saying is that in spite of being sheep loving, slave taking, ancient ruins destroying terrorists, the ISIS/ISIL brand doesn't have a track record of claiming attacks that they didn't carry out. They're quite proud of their atrocities and use each one as a PR building block to attract more crazies to their cause.

I believe this is where I start saying "told you so" about it being a bomb and not some ridiculous sabotage plot.

If I was a Russian Intel officer, I would be wondering why the USA had a satellite focused above Sharm El Sheikh. To observe the flash, when it happened.
GCHQ had heard chatter about it, but was that before or after.

 loki old fart wrote:
If I was a Russian Intel officer, I would be wondering why the USA had a satellite focused above Sharm El Sheikh. To observe the flash, when it happened.
GCHQ had heard chatter about it, but was that before or after.

I'd posit that it was likely trained on that general vicinity as it is on the Red Sea, and in a strategically significant location as you will note that it allows access to several countries.



I do not believe that the satellite was there ""[t]o observe the flash, when it happened". That sounds like you are suggesting a conspiracy theory that the US knew in advance that a device was going to be planted, had enough time to verify the information through other sources, brief senior staff at the CIA, compile a dossier on the incident, brief staff at the Pentagon, arrange to have the Air Force move a satellite from it's orbit over a strategically significant area to Sharm El Sheikh and wait.

Its a important area, it could also monitor if any of the nations in region re looking like moving on others lands,

keep a eye on folks and have early warning if theirs potential for trouble. be it nations or groups like isis.

better to see a potential issue coming than have to react after on the knee jerk. .

 Peregrine wrote:
I believe this is where I start saying "told you so" about it being a bomb and not some ridiculous sabotage plot.

Challenge accepted.

Actually I kept an open mind and didnt claim it was one particular option. You should try it sometime.

People said it wasn't a bomb because there was no reported explosion, that meant mechanical sabotage was an option to be considered .

Point was appear to be on track, someone on the ground staff of Sharm el Sheik airport was radicalised and recruited by ISIS. How they used their access to the aircraft to sabotage it, bomb or other means is not as relevant.
Also from the links given aircraft being brought down by sabotage is a major statistical cause in aircrashes. So that is hardly ridiculous, I prefer the word factual. Here is the link again if you missed it last time:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-sabotage-most-common-factor-in-en-route-accidents-396830/




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 loki old fart wrote:
If I was a Russian Intel officer, I would be wondering why the USA had a satellite focused above Sharm El Sheikh. To observe the flash, when it happened.
GCHQ had heard chatter about it, but was that before or after.

Unless the satellite is in geosynch, its constantly moving relative to the position on the ground. Ultimately a satellite will go over most of the globe. This is why they need so many, to have coverage of a specific spot at a specific time.

I can't speak for intel satellites, but at least most meteorological satellites are geosynch'd. Granted, our polar orbiters have better resolution, but we get much fewer shots from them.

You don't think the Russians are wondering IF the west knew beforehand.

It's probable the West and the Russians knew before hand. But knowing someone wants to blow a plane out of the sky and exactly which plane on which day at what time they plan to do it are entirely different matters.

 loki old fart wrote:
You don't think the Russians are wondering IF the west knew beforehand.

The plane wasn't brought down by the West. I guess we all know who was responsible.



KYLE !


Back on topic, there's satellites looking everywhere anyway.

The terrorist groups are not dumb as two rocks, there not likely to tell over a easily tapped mobile when, where and such the attack is going to be and give you flight and seat numbers.

They may have said, this attack may take place x week. But that's alot of flights to cover, thousands of people on the off chance they are.

They cannot be everywhere, watching everything and such.

 Frazzled wrote:
Someone help me out, why ISIL? I would think the other elements the Russians are actively bombing would be more likely (or maybe they really are...)

Is ISIL just pulling the AlQaeda playbook and going after the biggest elephant they can to make a name?

If true, what is Russia going to do?

ISIS theologically need someone like the US or Russia to come to Syria and fight them. The US has mostly denied them but with Russia committing in the area they are the next best choice.

Part of the crazy of ISIS is that they are a doomsday cult. They use 'prophecies about the caliphate being defeated in Syria sparking the end of days to recruit. Oddly, ISIS wants some one non Muslim to come into Syria and defeat them. Once this happens they believe it will be the sign for Muslims all over the world that the caliphate is legitmate and they need to swear alligence.

Sounds like a comic book plot but ISIS is full fundamentalist crazy pants.

So I see them trying to goad Russia into their signature retaliation for aggression against them....scorched earth.

 djones520 wrote:
I can't speak for intel satellites, but at least most meteorological satellites are geosynch'd. Granted, our polar orbiters have better resolution, but we get much fewer shots from them.

Meterological and communications satellites are geosynched.

Comms sats need to be reliably found in one place to aim a satellite dish at. They are also sufficiently distant from the earth to communicate with each other without the planet getting in the way. Though you don't need geosynch distances to do that.

Most other satellites are in lower orbits. Its cheaper for a start and the closer they are the clearer the images. You can see weather patterns perfectly well from geosynch, if you want to have a satellite able to look for missile launchers in a forest then you need a closer orbit passing satellite. A satellite cant retain a relative static position except at geosynch orbit, which means the satellite needs to be over the equator and a set distance away, approx 36,000 km altitude.