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My Japanese supplier, is happy . because of the stuff i order that i read on the news and rumor thread. there are more systems than ever before!

GW’s influence may be waning but the hobby of wargaming is as strong as ever. When I first got into the hobby in the mid 90’s it was far more difficult to get into than it was now.

I’ve no idea about FLGS as I’ve never had one, but both my local clubs are at their busiest in years.

I think there is a minor squeeze on local retailers to fight against online retailers and even amazon. But the most of the Game / Comic stores I remember closing are from poor management. They are fan boys that get a little money and decide to open a store. There is very little pre planning and no idea to run a business. Just a few years back a local comic store opened up and it was months before he got a credit card machine. Very little people carry cash any more and you are taking a large gamble by taking a check from a college student. The guy was a very nice and knew a ton about his products but most of his merchandise was display only or stuff that didn't sale out. Most new items he had "just sold out" and could order it for you. When someone enters a store, they want to walk out with the item they where looking for. This is where online has helped the market, you can get what you want, when you want it.

As for the War gaming dying out.. Everything goes in phases, Tomorrow there may be a new game that everyone loves, that would cause sales to go down in other items. But once the new wears off people will return to what they played before normally. But back to local retailers if people have no place to meet up, the games in the area start to die out, because of no support or unable to find players. This causes a new phenomenon where people buy online cheap and then go to the FLGS to play causing the retailer to now have to charge to play.

I would have to also say wargaming is not dying.

In my area of Michigan I have seen a rise of Warmachine, Infinity, Malifaux, FoW, and many others. What you might be notcing is the rise of other compaines, like the ones I mentioned, catching up to GW and it is giving the illusion that GW is dying faster then it really is. GW is here to stay, for a long while...but their reign as the miniatures wargame has been shaken with some good solid companies and their games.

These new companies that have come out have made great games that show innovative thinking behind them and a good sense of balance for what a wargame should be.

I guess you could say the future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.

I think a lot of people are seeing doom and gloom in the industry, but I think its because they aren't looking at the bigger picture.

So lets break it down.

There are more start-up gaming companies than at any other time, and they are producing some tremendous stuff. This includes home based designers who have access to rapid prototyping equipment who are able to produce "bits" and gaming companies in their own right.

There are more options available for people with a cool idea to take their product to market, and, thanks to crowd sourcing. Which means that they can produce the game they want to produce as opposed to something their investors think will sell.

Rule of Cool just went mainstream Ladies and Gentlemen, please fasten your safety belts and keep your arms inside the vehicle at all times.

When you combine this with the fact that the old guard (myself included) are getting more and more disillusioned with GW and their policy of price hikes rather than engaging with their customers. If they don't change this policy I can see them going down the tubes and becoming a pure production/distribution company, however, thats a long way off.

IMHO the state of the hobby is looking pretty good. There are more companies, making more toys than at any time than I can remember.

And the quality of their product just keeps getting better. DZC from Hawk Wargames is stunning.
Malifaux from Wyrd is just the coolest (I got my FLGS to agree to stock it before they realised that one of the gangs had Zombie Hookers, you have to watch one of those intro games, its the funniest thing you've ever seen)
Infinity is still producing awesome models and has just put out a campaign system
Battlefront is going from strength to strength
Privateer press is looking to expand its range (sci-fi board games anyone, who knows where that could go.....)

And then there is the new batch of things coming out of Kickstarter, some of it looks Meh, but theres a lot of it that looks tremendous.

As for FLGS, in my neck of the woods and within easy travel range I've got about 6.

Tournaments, well in my spare time I run 2-4 events per year, my local gaming club runs another 4 a year. then there's all of the other events, a friend of mine almost ended up getting divorced last year when his lady realised he'd been away playing in tournaments 3 weekends out of every 4 for the whole year.

"The hobby" is looking pretty healthy from where I'm sitting and I believe that its only going to get better and better.

Not dying, but the business Model is changing in such a way that the future of Miniature Wargames reminds me a bit of the Napster-Era Record Companies.

Are Record Companies dead? Hardly, they are still very powerful, but they make their money differently than they did in the late 80's and early 90's.

I've only been in the hobby for four years, however I've been on the outskirts of it looking in since the 90's and I can honestly say that it's bigger now then I have ever known it.

York only ever used to have a GW store with no outside FLGS, however in the four years I've been wargaming a comic store has started stocking various GW and non-GW models and the section has grown and grown.

With the quality of the models being made now and the variety of different systems and manufactures I think we are in a great age of wargaming. However as some above said it's possible this bubble of Kickstarters and GW alternatives may burst. Who bursts with it is the real question.

Kaptajn Congoboy wrote:
Are LGS'es dying? Our local ones are expanding again, after an overenthusiasm of establishments in the nineties and early noughties that saw twice as many as we needed locally.

Are LGS'es being replaced by gaming clubs? Locally, the gaming club is the tournament organizer and the LGS is expanding its gaming areas.

Average age might be getting higher, but at the same time all my gaming pals with kids are bringing them into wargaming.

I shall echo this statement.

The days of several games stores in every town is over, the internet killed that. The bonus is the one store that may survive is a good store. One that builds and supports its customer base. Its a store that supports its gaming community, who in turn support the store financially.

I like the trend of gamers ages rising. I dont like the GW model of catering to kids with too much money. It leads to stores, clubs, etc full of arrogant and idiotic teenagers. I like it much better when gamers bring other gamers into the hobby, it tends to lead to a better quality of people filling the hobby. Id rather have people in the hobby who are there because they enjoy it, not because its the popular thing to do.

 BobbaFett wrote:
Hello. Today I feel pessimistic.

But I've been thinking about the latest movements of the wargaming industry and I think that these are signals of a dying hobby.

The Local Gaming Stores are dying because of the Online Stores and an aggresive offer war.
The Kickstarter innitiatives are not helping because game and miniatures producers are skipping the middlemen. So this means, less profit from miniature games, less local stores, less attention from business moguls.
Local Game Stores are being replaced by gaming clubs. And that means that it will be more difficult to get into wargaming if you are an outsider.
The average age of the wargamer is getting higher, we are loosing teens because they prefer their videogames.

Let me put this scenario.
Right now, if a russian multimillionaire is studying where to invest a mountain of money, and if he has the chance of investing in the most profitable succesfull miniature game, their advisors would tell him not to do it because the miniature gaming industry is dying and has no future.

What I want from you is... give me arguments to prove me wrong. I need that point of view. Please.

More or less I would have to agree with this assessment as the data I have been collecting (in the US in general) points to that general direction).
I also know that in Europe is in a general Recession at this moment. England does not look so good economically as well. (had a great time gaming there with great gamers overall).

Other posters has sited the changes in the demographics of the customer base and that seems to be correct as well.

The real question is disposable income. These articles below
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-15/wal-mart-executives-sweat-slow-february-start-in-e-mails.html
http://icv2.com/articles/markets/25062.html
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2415482,00.asp?kc=PCRSS03069TX1K0001121

Tells me we are going to have a stagnant type of growth this year. I see less disposable income on on luxury items.

Wargaming, a luxury item will decline until the global economics improve.

As far as I can see the Wargaming industry is expanding. We have more LGS than before and most of them seem to be doing quite well.

The Industry is changing to a far more specialised cottage industry with lots of little companies doing their own thing which does shut out the LGS but what you tend to see is a dozen or so strong ranges in the retail shops which gamers buy again and again such as Malfaux, Infinity, Flames of War, Warmachine, Hordes, WWII (bolt action or Rules of engagement) plus the Napoleon era and ACW and of course GW and then gamers get their short term fixes with the kickstarters for the extras. Internet discounters come and go all the time not many survive for that long even the big one's like Maelstrom go down eventually as they just don't have a proper business model. These are just short terms glitches, long term the hobby is doing OK.

As far as I can see from the local Gaming club and LGS our hobby is growing. It is changing however to mean we'll have less long term game ranges and more short term little companies - which could cause problems down the line.
The main point i would make is that there are a lot of other good games and companies that have been around for several years and who are continuing to grow - that disproves the decline.

I have seen less new people coming into the Hobby as a whole as they are getting priced out or bored by GW, many gamers are switching from GW to other games but I don't know if the newer companies have the pull to get new hobbyists into the hobby, whereas GW always did. Now with their expensive prices and not so great models GW are not bringing in as many people as they used to so whilst I'm seeing lots of new guys playing my sort of games - they aren't "new" to the hobby they've just go a bit fed up with GW and want to play other systems.

in Summary from talking to our LGS and other guys at shows the Hobby is growing still, the shops that stock the strong ranges as core systems are doing well, clubs are getting more attendees (if they play the right core games) Kickstarters are just a short term impulse purchase and don't have any major effect on the core ranges BUT on the other hand we're not seeing lots of "new" people coming into the club they are disenchanted GW'ers. This isn't a problem for now as the current generation of gamers will support the industry for another 20-30 years but after that we could see things dwindling down.

As long as the major companies such as Wyrd, Warlord, Battlefront, Privateer etc all keep people interested and their games are stocked in the LGS then people will continue to buy and play.

I don't have any FLGS's near me. Only a tiny one man GW. *sniff* However, there are so many 8 year-olds there it is like swimming through a sea of them trying to get to the Space Marines section.

Ever since I got into wargaming with Battletech 3rd Edition at the age of 12 (it was 1992 dude!) there were no gaming clubs to my knowledge back then near my podunk town. The store I bought the game from has long been closed down, but I still remember where it was.

It's like the Transformers' motto: more than meets the eye. It may look like the wargaming industry is dying on the surface, but underneath it's thriving, even growing. I'm sure there are more than a few fathers and grandfathers on here that've exposed their kids/grandkids to the wargaming hobby. Those kids that liked it will probably get into it. Those that don't, well, meh *shrugs.*

Given that GW are the biggest wargaming company by far, and they've had years of increasing profits during a recession that's hit the buying power of their customer base, I think we can say...no.

 BryllCream wrote:
Given that GW are the biggest wargaming company by far, and they've had years of increasing profits during a recession that's hit the buying power of their customer base, I think we can say...no.

They are seeing increasing profits because they raise prices and cuts costs, they have been losing sales for a while now and there is only so long they can make up for it. Yes they are still the biggest and will still be for a few years but in the face of other companies that are quickly catching up they are simply ignoring them and using the term "the Games Workshop hobby" more and more.

All of that actually is a good thing for the wargaming industry though since it is allowing other companies to thrive.

 jonolikespie wrote:

 BryllCream wrote:
Given that GW are the biggest wargaming company by far, and they've had years of increasing profits during a recession that's hit the buying power of their customer base, I think we can say...no.

They are seeing increasing profits because they raise prices and cuts costs, they have been losing sales for a while now and there is only so long they can make up for it. Yes they are still the biggest and will still be for a few years but in the face of other companies that are quickly catching up they are simply ignoring them and using the term "the Games Workshop hobby" more and more.

All of that actually is a good thing for the wargaming industry though since it is allowing other companies to thrive.

That post could have been made at any point in the past 15 years. I'll believe that GW are dying when I see a)GW stores declining in number (they are currently increasing, albeit in one-man format which seems to enrage dakka-ites no end) and b)declining profits.

The old style of gaming and stores may be dying but with change is huge opportunity:

My kids love "Skylanders" they want the models, a physical thing they can touch a play with. They LOVE my 40k stuff and already are making marines at the age of 7 and 9 respectively. Easy entry into any social gaming system people are drawn to.

Notice almost all coffee shops and fast food places are looking to have a "boutique" or higher end look. Imagine if a gaming store has space set out to play with comfortable surroundings, sell coffee / soda / snacks with long hours and a big online presence to help with "match-making" players.

Adding an on-line and bricks based store will help with the bottom-line as well.

Birthday-party / gathering facilities always do well. Imagine selling a space to play like a club with the added benefit of selling product. Money is found in "micro-transactions" and sold "services". Are there holes in this buisness model?

I want to go to the place I outlined here so it is worthy of investment.

From my perspective, I'm far more inclined to do war gaming related activity (modelling, painting, playing) than play computer games, but this could be my age (36). Computer games don't really offer me the same sense of accomplishment that the war gaming hobby does.

i'm sure it's not dying, it's just taking time to find a nice dice to reroll it's armour save after all it's 3+

Now, here's the thing with Wargaming (esp 40K and Fantasy but also other mass battle games). They take a huge amount of time. And often a huge amount of money. Let's say I want to play a 2000pt game of 40K. I can't just play as you could with a console or computer game. I have to:

1 - assemble the minis

2 - paint the minis

3 - read and understand the rules (takes more time than you think when you have to keep up with the latest releases for the rulebook, associated errata, your codex's latest release, your opponents' codices, and their errata.)

4 - come up with a strategy and fine tune an army list
* note - if I want to change my strategy this often involves assembling and painting additional minis

5 - I need time to pack the models if I am playing somewhere other than my own house

6 - I have to commute to the other location (may not seem like much, but with a console game that time is essentially zero)

7 - and obviously, playing the game takes time.

8 - Cleanup. If you have a hundred models this may take time to re-pack them and ensure that none are missing before heading out

--------------------------

So if wargaming is on the decline it might have something to do with the reduction of time that the players have. For those that have tons of time this is not an issue (ie single people or people without kids or people who only work 40 hours or fewer per week).

Don't get me wrong - console games or computer games can take a lot of time, too. But there are quite a few time consuming steps required for a game that does not come "ready to play." For those that have more time my list will seem laughable. But I can assure you that it does become a factor when one has less time - even to the point where one's ability to play at all is challenged.

Console games allow a way to continue gaming beyond 40K where all the playing pieces are immediately available, where you can save the game when you run out of time, and where you can still play even if you don't fully understand the game rules (the computer does much of it for you). Finally, you don't even need an opponent.

Is Wargaming dying? I think that if society as a whole has less free time than the answer might be yes... for the reasons shown here.

 SoulDrinker wrote:
The Industry is changing to a far more specialised cottage industry with lots of little companies doing their own thing which does shut out the LGS but what you tend to see is a dozen or so strong ranges in the retail shops which gamers buy again and again such as Malfaux, Infinity, Flames of War, Warmachine, Hordes, WWII (bolt action or Rules of engagement) plus the Napoleon era and ACW and of course GW and then gamers get their short term fixes with the kickstarters for the extras. Internet discounters come and go all the time not many survive for that long even the big one's like Maelstrom go down eventually as they just don't have a proper business model. These are just short terms glitches, long term the hobby is doing OK

I've noticed this at my FLGS. There's a giant wall with half GW, half PP. There's another wall with WW2 and Historicals. Between them is a divider rack, one side is Malifaux, Infinity and Confrontation (store owners personal old supply of pre plastic Rakham metals), the other side is Dystopian Wars, Firestorm Armada and Dropzone Commander, plus Raging Heroes, Avatars of War and more GW blisters/boxes. All of this seems to sell. Then scattered around are more products from even smaller companies. Then the ubiquitous CCG displays around the counter.

When I look for people gaming, I see all different games. Some days the FoW players swarm the store and take all of the tables. Other days, GW and PP players are fighting over tables. Some days I see huge Dystopian Wars games going.

Anecdotally, I don't see the industry dying, but it's definitely getting more diverse. If you only play one game, it may seem like its dying as people aren't just playing that game. Some days it's not getting played at all - but other games are.

I love playing wh40k but i really do hope they get a rude wakeup call by their competitors. Yes, i hope they take a finacial hit from other games doing it better than them. That said, i hope they learn and adapt so war gaming and especially 40k become better and yes im going to say the impossible cheaper for everyone to play. Regardless im going to continue until its no longer fun and hope for that under dog company to really shake GW enough for them to clean house and try fixing their business model.... I love the game but they ARE price gouging plain and simple.

Around here wargaming has always been more an issue of private gameclubs and social circles than of LFGS. Online shops seem to push the hobby even more than to restrain it, for there is such a vast range of beautiful minis to stir the urge to buy. At the local shop your impulse buys are filtered through the seller's selection.

I believe I read somewhere that there was a 20% growth in the industry last year? If so that's pretty remarkable, and a good sign for the industry going forward.

GW's virtual monopoly, at least at the end of the 90's and early noughties(?!) meant that they have got a little bit fat and lazy of late. But, this has had a two-fold knock on effect for the rest of the industry. Firstly, they have acted as a training ground for some of the most talented rules writers and sculptors in the industry. FoW, Mantic, Studio McVey, to name but 3 (there are a lot more!) have been founded or else supported by ex-GW employees. Secondly, the lack of change within GW's games, and risk aversion to trying anything new (including ignoring some of their past triumphs) have left the door open to other, smaller companies capitalising on those omissions. If GW wanted to, they have the economic muscle (buying power and production facilities, good logistics) to produce a product far cheaper and of than anything else on the market. But they don't, and companies such as Mantic (and a host of smaller, 'garage' companies) have sprung up like mushrooms in the shadow of the giant.

And let's not of course discount the way that GW's stores act as recruiting centres for new players. And in the currently retailer-hostile economic climate in the UK's shopping centres, it would be extremely difficult for any independents to step in. Pick one that has opened over the last decade that has chosen an inner-city location, and the likes of Wayland Games and Total Wargamer have gone to suburban or rural locations in order to get a rates level that is feasible in this kind of economic situation.

Although I don't think we should take it for granted - with wealth of options comes the possibility of the overall marketplace becoming diluted. I can understand people saying 'don't restrict yourself to one system', but the counter argument to that is that, by and large, wargaming and miniature building is a very time consuming pastime. I probably donate more time to it than is healthy, but still I try and stick to a maximum of 2 systems at any one time, usually changing after 6 months or a year. Some fanboyism in that sense I think is permissible - and I can completely understand people not wanting to look at another system, even if they might know within their heart that its probably better, just because they have spent so much money and effort on what they have.

Finally, I don't think we should just be talking about GW though here - I think its important that the industry as a whole tries to move forward. Yes I think it's always going to be a niche industry in the grand scheme of things, but that can be changed to an extent. I really wanted Rick Priestly's Gates of Antares to succeed, not just out of some kind of loyalty to someone who is really one of the fathers of the modern industry, but because I thought that game had the potential to move wargaming up another level - massive developer to player interaction, a living and evolving game universe, all done via new technologies that simply weren't possible even 3 or 4 years ago. Perhaps the methods of the Kickstarter were flawed, but as usual Rick has shown that he is a master of ideas, and no doubt has something more to give to the wargaming world yet - the hobby is going to need that kind of innovation, rather than just sitting back on its haunches, going in ever tightening circles, if it is to remain a valid and appealing pastime to younger people in amongst the ever increasing number of distractions for their money and time.

 SoulDrinker wrote:
As far as I can see the Wargaming industry is expanding. We have more LGS than before and most of them seem to be doing quite well.

That's true, but after a spate of a load of them opening (at least here in the South West of the UK) there have been some casualties - Cut'n'thrust for one. AFAIK, its now in the slightly crazy situation of such a massive city not having a FLGS.

Although that store, as cool as it was, I don't think did anything to help itself. Not having a web shop in 2013, and having to pay the rents & rates of Bristol (which even at their cheapest are absolutely fething horrendous) means that you have to do everything possible to help yourself.

Certainly I think the next couple of years will be interesting.