Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Aerethan wrote:

 nectarprime wrote:
Duurrrrr of course in the future it will be doable. Do you all want to argue about hoverboards too? I am talking about NOW. God, you guys sometimes.

So companies should only concern themselves with where technology is NOW? Tell me more about how that is a sustainable concept.

Companies must adapt to changes in the market. If the model industry sees a change from traditional manufacturing and distribution(just like the music industry did) then those companies MUST adapt their methods of monetizing their companies and products accordingly.

What happened to all the companies that made audio cassette tapes? They either adapted to the market and started making CD's or they went under.

What happens to a company like GW when anyone at home can do the manufacturing process themselves? They need to adapt to that and find a new way to make money from it, an example of which would be the personal use licensing.

Why on earth would I pay GW for their models if I can print my own for virtually nothing? Even if they are public domain sculpts or custom sculpts? Anyone can learn to create a 3D object and then print it. So you'll end up seeing a gak ton of garage outfits that just create 3d files and sell those to people with printers.

Just like how iTunes sells digital media instead of physical. Why buy the physical product at massive mark up when you can do it yourself for half the cost?

Price of an average album at a store: $15-20. Price of it on iTunes: $7-10+ price of a CD-R which is pennies.


It would be financially irresponsible for a company to ignore the writing on the wall when it comes to this dramatic shift in technology.

To be perfectly frank, I hope they don't adapt. I hope all companies continue trying to enforce their Jurassic business models via the law, refusing to acknowledge that the world is changing around them. Why? Because if they do adapt, if they all start figuring out how to "monetise" every new bit of technology as it arrives, we might end up with a society where we have the technical capacity to move to a post-scarcity resource management system, and instead find that technology being used against us by corporations to create a labour market with a power dynamic so imbalanced in their favour that a really nasty and violent event is the only thing that would end their dominance.

one day, i will be very happy to buy a file from GW, PP, or any other legit design firm, download it, and run a print off in my house...
until that day, i'm still here, perturbed, waiting for the jetpack we were all promised in the 80's...

cheers
jah

 Yodhrin wrote:

 Aerethan wrote:

 nectarprime wrote:
Duurrrrr of course in the future it will be doable. Do you all want to argue about hoverboards too? I am talking about NOW. God, you guys sometimes.

So companies should only concern themselves with where technology is NOW? Tell me more about how that is a sustainable concept.

Companies must adapt to changes in the market. If the model industry sees a change from traditional manufacturing and distribution(just like the music industry did) then those companies MUST adapt their methods of monetizing their companies and products accordingly.

What happened to all the companies that made audio cassette tapes? They either adapted to the market and started making CD's or they went under.

What happens to a company like GW when anyone at home can do the manufacturing process themselves? They need to adapt to that and find a new way to make money from it, an example of which would be the personal use licensing.

Why on earth would I pay GW for their models if I can print my own for virtually nothing? Even if they are public domain sculpts or custom sculpts? Anyone can learn to create a 3D object and then print it. So you'll end up seeing a gak ton of garage outfits that just create 3d files and sell those to people with printers.

Just like how iTunes sells digital media instead of physical. Why buy the physical product at massive mark up when you can do it yourself for half the cost?

Price of an average album at a store: $15-20. Price of it on iTunes: $7-10+ price of a CD-R which is pennies.


It would be financially irresponsible for a company to ignore the writing on the wall when it comes to this dramatic shift in technology.

To be perfectly frank, I hope they don't adapt. I hope all companies continue trying to enforce their Jurassic business models via the law, refusing to acknowledge that the world is changing around them. Why? Because if they do adapt, if they all start figuring out how to "monetise" every new bit of technology as it arrives, we might end up with a society where we have the technical capacity to move to a post-scarcity resource management system, and instead find that technology being used against us by corporations to create a labour market with a power dynamic so imbalanced in their favour that a really nasty and violent event is the only thing that would end their dominance.

Post-scarcity will not happen in the next 3 generations if it happens at all. Perhaps once there is no longer a "3rd world" on our planet we can make serious progress towards abolishing scarcity, but we are decades away from even considering that option.

Stranger83 wrote:
Whilst this is possible it is also easy to avoid, simply set up a system where by you have to approve something before it goes up for sale - job done, now people cannot put copyrighted items up for 3d print as you would simply disapprove them.

Your system works, if the administrator has an encyclopaedic knowledge of every copyrighted and patented object in existence. Which is to say, it doesn't work.

 AlexHolker wrote:

Stranger83 wrote:
Whilst this is possible it is also easy to avoid, simply set up a system where by you have to approve something before it goes up for sale - job done, now people cannot put copyrighted items up for 3d print as you would simply disapprove them.

Your system works, if the administrator has an encyclopaedic knowledge of every copyrighted and patented object in existence. Which is to say, it doesn't work.

Whilst true it will pick up most things, and the rest could be removed pretty quickly once reported. If we go with the music and film example, the "governing bodies (I can't remember the actual names of them) tend to be fairly lenient on companies that unwittingly OK files not knowing it was infingeing on copyright - as long as they play ball and remove stuf quickly once informed that it infringes. What they don't like is sites that allow a free for all or simply ignore take down requests. There are plenty of sites that operate this way now and I fail to see why adding a 3D version of it is any different.

Really this is no different to what the likes of Shapeways are doing - except instead of them printing it and sending it to you you instead buy the file and can print it yourself, if Shapeways can do this and not infringe copyright then so can anyone else.

EDIT: And to use the example given in the OP - if you tried to upload a "Leman Russ Tank" then a quick google search, all of 1 minute of the admins time, would show that such a thing already exists. Now granted if they instead uploaded "Futuristic tank" this is harder to find and they may OK it. But a "futuristic tank" would be more difficult for the user of said site to find, meaning that when it is found it's likely that it'd make it's way onto forums such as this as "Have you seen this - you can 3D print your own Leman Russ?" type posts. Anyone working in the industry should be keeping a close eye on forums within that industry and - when they see their item for sale under a different name - could issue a take down notice, if the company agrees to the take down then 99/100 times everyone is happy with that.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Or, to use a larger more recognised company.

Amazon allow you to self publish eBooks, now I could take an existing book, change the name and load it up for sale. Unless the person who works for Amazon and “approves” my book has an encyclopaedic knowledge of every book ever written then they are not going to stop it. Yet you don’t seem book publishers demanding the shut down of Amazon. What you do see is Amazon immediately remove any book that gets asked to be taken down (ala Spot The Space Marine) and then (I presume as Spot the Space Marine went back up for sale) get someone who is an expert to review if they can sell it or not.

To answer some the questions that have come up in this thread.

The makerbot 2 is 2200 dollars.

It prints in 100 micron or 0.1mm layers which is about as thick as a sheet of copy paper once painted I think you would have a hard time telling the difference between that and a GW finecast model.

File sharing is alive and well.

3d printing will be used for piracy, however think of the ramifications to the environment if you no longer have to make and ship parts for cars, tools, appliances etc. It can be printed locally with absolutely zero fuel consumption.

3d printing will also be used to revlutionize the world where certian printable objects are forbidden or illegal.

Anyone that thinks they can stop the 3d revolution is just living in a mild self-dillusion.

Back on the evironmental kick, if you no longer need giant factories, the concept of a large city also becomes less necessary allowing people to dedensifiy. Cities put major stresses on local resources.

Another good step in debunking the illusion that one can chain down an idea.

The pirate bay is already the 'pirate bay of 3d printing'. They have a special physibles tag set up for it and everything.

tgf wrote:
To answer some the questions that have come up in this thread.

The makerbot 2 is 2200 dollars.

It prints in 100 micron or 0.1mm layers which is about as thick as a sheet of copy paper once painted I think you would have a hard time telling the difference between that and a GW finecast model.

File sharing is alive and well.

3d printing will be used for piracy, however think of the ramifications to the environment if you no longer have to make and ship parts for cars, tools, appliances etc. It can be printed locally with absolutely zero fuel consumption.

3d printing will also be used to revlutionize the world where certian printable objects are forbidden or illegal.

Anyone that thinks they can stop the 3d revolution is just living in a mild self-dillusion.

Back on the evironmental kick, if you no longer need giant factories, the concept of a large city also becomes less necessary allowing people to dedensifiy. Cities put major stresses on local resources.

These are great points. The applications are endless. People in remote areas will be able to print out replacement parts for vehicles and damn near anything without having to have it flown in. 3D printing offers a massive reduction in commercial gasoline usage as the parts industry basically goes green. The only parts you'd really need to ship would be metal or organic items and liquids. Anything plastic could be printed at zero fuel cost.

The potential is massive, and people will make good use of the technology.


Also, yes the PirateBay has 3D files up. Even if they didn't have a tab for it, the files have been there for a while and more will pop up.

 Aerethan wrote:

tgf wrote:
. Anything plastic could be printed at zero fuel cost.

Not quite, the raw materiels would still need to be shipped. The supply chain would be a lot less complex and more efficent though.

tgf wrote:
To answer some the questions that have come up in this thread.

The makerbot 2 is 2200 dollars.

It prints in 100 micron or 0.1mm layers which is about as thick as a sheet of copy paper once painted I think you would have a hard time telling the difference between that and a GW finecast model.

File sharing is alive and well.

3d printing will be used for piracy, however think of the ramifications to the environment if you no longer have to make and ship parts for cars, tools, appliances etc. It can be printed locally with absolutely zero fuel consumption.

3d printing will also be used to revlutionize the world where certian printable objects are forbidden or illegal.

Anyone that thinks they can stop the 3d revolution is just living in a mild self-dillusion.

Back on the evironmental kick, if you no longer need giant factories, the concept of a large city also becomes less necessary allowing people to dedensifiy. Cities put major stresses on local resources.

While you make some good points, it's hilarious you think 3D printing will replace every type of production. Tools? Until they start 3D printing things like tempered steel, you won't see much useful in the way of tools and random household or automotive bits come out of 3D printing. Unless you think putting a resin bearing in your car is going to do something.

 -Loki- wrote:

tgf wrote:
To answer some the questions that have come up in this thread.

The makerbot 2 is 2200 dollars.

It prints in 100 micron or 0.1mm layers which is about as thick as a sheet of copy paper once painted I think you would have a hard time telling the difference between that and a GW finecast model.

File sharing is alive and well.

3d printing will be used for piracy, however think of the ramifications to the environment if you no longer have to make and ship parts for cars, tools, appliances etc. It can be printed locally with absolutely zero fuel consumption.

3d printing will also be used to revlutionize the world where certian printable objects are forbidden or illegal.

Anyone that thinks they can stop the 3d revolution is just living in a mild self-dillusion.

Back on the evironmental kick, if you no longer need giant factories, the concept of a large city also becomes less necessary allowing people to dedensifiy. Cities put major stresses on local resources.

While you make some good points, it's hilarious you think 3D printing will replace every type of production. Tools? Until they start 3D printing things like tempered steel, you won't see much useful in the way of tools and random household or automotive bits come out of 3D printing. Unless you think putting a resin bearing in your car is going to do something.

Yeah, I think it's getting a bit overexcited. Most the parts I've replaced on my cars in the past 4 or 5 years have been extremely large for household 3D printing and/or made from materials that could not be easily 3D printed in the near future.

I'm sure 3D printing will be a step forward when it becomes mainstream, but I'm not wetting my pants over it just yet. I think it will be a big step forward for industry if they can get 3D printed parts that match the quality of traditionally manufactured parts (ie. matching or exceeding high tensile steel, carbon fibre composites, kevlar composites, ceramics, rubber, etc). But I clearly have a lack of vision because I don't see why most people would want/need one in their houses of a scale and ability to print things that are actually useful and not just trinkets.

Stranger83 wrote:
Amazon allow you to self publish eBooks, now I could take an existing book, change the name and load it up for sale. Unless the person who works for Amazon and “approves” my book has an encyclopaedic knowledge of every book ever written then they are not going to stop it.

A book is made up of words, which means that a word-based search is far more capable of automating the process than for a three dimensional object.

What you do see is Amazon immediately remove any book that gets asked to be taken down (ala Spot The Space Marine) and then (I presume as Spot the Space Marine went back up for sale) get someone who is an expert to review if they can sell it or not.

And this "guilty until proven innocent" approach is something you think is a good thing? Especially when the whole reason for the site's existence is that Thingiverse folded to these sorts of demands for censorship?

Maybe the dying photo print shops can switch to 3D printing?

 judgedoug wrote:

 nectarprime wrote:
Oh no now everyone will use their $30k 3D printers to make stuff!

someone in the late 1970's wrote:Oh no now everyone will use their $30k laser printer to print books!

someone in the mid 1980s wrote:Oh no now everyone will use their $3k VCR to copy and sell movies!

someone in the mid 1990s wrote:Oh no now everyone will use their $300 1xspeed CD burner to copy and sell music!

Technology gets exponentially cheaper...

Yet people still buy lots of DVDs, Blu-Rays, Books...

I don't see Pirate Bay isn't the Pirate Bay of anything. You could share 3D files there if you wanted to ?

 AlexHolker wrote:

Stranger83 wrote:
Amazon allow you to self publish eBooks, now I could take an existing book, change the name and load it up for sale. Unless the person who works for Amazon and “approves” my book has an encyclopaedic knowledge of every book ever written then they are not going to stop it.

A book is made up of words, which means that a word-based search is far more capable of automating the process than for a three dimensional object.

True, but the point is still valid, Amazon miss stuff every now and then, as will any company that sells other peoples works, the important thing is how they react to it more than that they do it.

 AlexHolker wrote:

What you do see is Amazon immediately remove any book that gets asked to be taken down (ala Spot The Space Marine) and then (I presume as Spot the Space Marine went back up for sale) get someone who is an expert to review if they can sell it or not.

And this "guilty until proven innocent" approach is something you think is a good thing? Especially when the whole reason for the site's existence is that Thingiverse folded to these sorts of demands for censorship?

Actually, no I don't think it's good. I'm just saying that having a site like this and staying on the right side of the law is pretty easy to do

The current 3D metal printers are called CNC machines, and they actually don't print, the do the opposite they mill. It is not far fetched to think that in our life time someone will figure out a way to print metal rather than mill it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Welding is in a way printing metal or a similar concept to how 3d printers work layering material.

tgf wrote:
The current 3D metal printers are called CNC machines, and they actually don't print, the do the opposite they mill. It is not far fetched to think that in our life time someone will figure out a way to print metal rather than mill it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Welding is in a way printing metal or a similar concept to how 3d printers work layering material.

Yes, 3D printing metal is certainly possible, but you still ain't gonna get good material properties and it's still going to require post machining and more specialised equipment than just blobbing out a strand of metal and hoping it is strong enough to work as a part on a car.

You also already have machines that (basically) work like 3D printers of composites, you put in a reel of, say, carbon fibre, poor in some resin and it will weave you carbon fibre part. It still needs to be cured under pressure in an autoclave and woven on to a mould, though, so still not all that practical for home use.

CNC machining is certainly getting cheaper, but a good mill/lathe is still expensive regardless of whether it's CNC or not.

That's why I think the digital 3D part making business is going to be big for, well, businesses. as computer controlled machinery gets cheaper and faster and reliable enough to replace traditionally made parts, it becomes more practical to make the shapes that are required for good stress transmission and thus planes will get lighter, cars will get lighter, buildings will get bigger and the ability to produce them for lower cost will increase.

But as far as having one in my home to make cheap plastic trinkets, I'm not seeing the 3D revolution, perhaps I just don't have the vision to see it