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gorgon wrote: Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys base this on? Do you think any percentage would be fanatical (and perhaps make the occupation/reunification resemble Iraq in 2006?)
I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
Every time a terrorist dies a Paratrooper gets his wings.
2013/03/29 14:11:57
Subject: Re:North Korea "combat posture to hit US"
North Korea has now threatened Austin, Texas. Undoubtedly Dear Leader has learned of the hidden Wiener Dog headquarters located there. The Wife was not impressed. And I quote "Bring it, we are locked and loaded here." Thats my baby!
Plus she can rest, safe and assured that Wiener Dog Command has more than adequate protections against the NK menace.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
gorgon wrote: Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys base this on? Do you think any percentage would be fanatical (and perhaps make the occupation/reunification resemble Iraq in 2006?)
I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
Knowing for a fact that people get smuggled out because they know they're living in a hellhole is part of it. Recognizing that the DPRK relentlessly crafts its propaganda to suggest that every man, woman and child there is a fanatic is another part. Being a human being and understanding human motivation fills in most of the rest.
To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying that some fanaticism and resistance wouldn't exist, just that it's likely that most North Koreans realize that they're being oppressed, and that they'd likely be fine to see their dictator go as long as their family's basic needs were still met or improved (which didn't happen in Iraq). There will be those who get disenfranchised and won't like it very much. But that's not going to happen down ethnic and religious fracture lines and stir up ancient grudges in Korea. I also think that China and Iran have very different motivations regarding their respective neighbors.
Even the Russians are worried nwo and call for talks. I guess they don't want that Siberia be nuked too.
The universe has many horrors yet to throw at us. This is not the end of our struggle. This is just the beginning of our crusade to save Humanity. Be faithful! Be strong! Be vigilant!
gorgon wrote: Agreed that the people there aren't and won't be fanatical about defending the Kim regime.
Just out of curiosity, what do you guys base this on? Do you think any percentage would be fanatical (and perhaps make the occupation/reunification resemble Iraq in 2006?)
I am curious what sources you base your analysis on.
Knowing for a fact that people get smuggled out because they know they're living in a hellhole is part of it. Recognizing that the DPRK relentlessly crafts its propaganda to suggest that every man, woman and child there is a fanatic is another part. Being a human being and understanding human motivation fills in most of the rest.
To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying that some fanaticism and resistance wouldn't exist, just that it's likely that most North Koreans realize that they're being oppressed, and that they'd likely be fine to see their dictator go as long as their family's basic needs were still met or improved (which didn't happen in Iraq). There will be those who get disenfranchised and won't like it very much. But that's not going to happen down ethnic and religious fracture lines and stir up ancient grudges in Korea. I also think that China and Iran have very different motivations regarding their respective neighbors.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Russia during WW2 after Stalin had already starved millions to death and killed millions others in camps or purges.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Soviet Union during WW2...
Little correction, Russia was only one country of the Union - the Union was composed of 14 other countries, each of them contributed soldiers to the Red Army.
And back then you didn't have Nukes and advanced technology like today, to wage the same war like that would be suicide.
The best one small country can do today is guerrilla warfare ( Afghanistan and Vietnam are excellent examples of this ), and even then it really depends on the people.
The universe has many horrors yet to throw at us. This is not the end of our struggle. This is just the beginning of our crusade to save Humanity. Be faithful! Be strong! Be vigilant!
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Soviet Union during WW2...
Little correction, Russia was only one country of the Union - the Union was composed of 14 other countries, each of them contributed soldiers to the Red Army.
And back then you didn't have Nukes and advanced technology like today, to wage the same war like that would be suicide.
The best one small country can do today is guerrilla warfare ( Afghanistan and Vietnam are excellent examples of this ), and even then it really depends on the people.
The fact remains the there was a fairly determined defense by the Soviets that is pretty widly achknowledged to have been the big reason for Hitler's defeat. Who really knows what China will do in all of this? One thing I've learned from reading history is that the most reasoned and logical supposition of what someone may or may not do can go out the window in events like this.
2013/03/29 18:35:20
Subject: Re:North Korea "combat posture to hit US"
North Korea has no capacity to do anything beyond lob a few missiles in the general direction of South Korea (or China if it was feeling really stupid).
This all about making the Kim look tough in the eyes of his people.
I'm still given to thinking that its posturing, but it would be interesting for all this nonsense to end.
Yeah. "Hey, guys, soooo, just wanted to repeat for the 12th time this month, we really hate you, and we want to bleed you dry, m'kay? Cool, bye bro!!'' It get's old after a while.
[...] for conflict is the great teacher, and pain, the perfect educator.
2013/03/30 05:09:55
Subject: Re:North Korea "combat posture to hit US"
whembly wrote: We wouldn't have to nuke 'em.... just bomb the gak out of them via the B-2 and sub-launched cruise missiles.
How many targets are there? Pyongyang and the military installations on the DMZ sites?
After NK is dealt with, the biggest concern is the aftermath... we'd need to be prepared along with SK, Japan and China for the influx of refugees.
In response to frazzled's scenarios and th above.....
15 successful trades as a buyer;
16 successful trades as a seller;
To glimpse the future, you must look to the past and understand it. Names may change, but human behavior repeats itself. Prophetic insight is nothing more than profound hindsight.
It doesn't matter how bloody far the apple falls from the tree. If the apple fell off of a Granny Smith, that apple is going to grow into a Granny bloody Smith. The only difference is whether that apple grows in the shade of the tree it fell from.
2013/03/30 05:13:55
Subject: Re:North Korea "combat posture to hit US"
As the BBC news Seoul correspondent put it, "everyone's just waiting for the North Koreans to blink (* now where's my coffee)". I doubt that the current government of the DPRK will be removed via military action. More likely for the people (or more like the middle class black marketers) to eventually get fed up enough with them to enforce some change.
One thing to remember in this, also, is the historical precedant of people seeing their homeland attacked and springing to it's defense in spite of an oppresive government. A good example of this is Russia during WW2 after Stalin had already starved millions to death and killed millions others in camps or purges.
There are some interesting cases in history. 1956 October revolution. The Russians crashed the Hungarian party. The army says, " you don't want out of the soviet bloc, but you just want your won democratically elected communist party? Uh. I'm actually fine with that". Then the Russians sent a second crew to crash the party again and recover the military equipment that had wandered over to the other side....
15 successful trades as a buyer;
16 successful trades as a seller;
To glimpse the future, you must look to the past and understand it. Names may change, but human behavior repeats itself. Prophetic insight is nothing more than profound hindsight.
It doesn't matter how bloody far the apple falls from the tree. If the apple fell off of a Granny Smith, that apple is going to grow into a Granny bloody Smith. The only difference is whether that apple grows in the shade of the tree it fell from.
Hardly a media creation. Those ranges are estimates made by our intelligence services based on what they know about the missiles.
But given that we are aware of every time they fire a missile, and they haven't even tried another test of the Taepodong 2 in 7 years, just shows how little threat their really is of them striking US soil.
Now... on the other hand, I was there in Japan when back in the 90's they flew one of their missiles directly over our base, just showing that they do have the capability of still striking at American assets.
Breotan wrote: Here's the main issue. NK has a lot of artillery along the border that can reach Seoul. That's a lot of damage and a lot of dead South Koreans. Were I PoTUS, I'd have a coordinated "first strike" of cluster munitions, artillery and naval gunfire to shock & awe the DMZ and areas north where their artillery and big guns are. Then I'd have airstrikes and naval gunfire bomb/shell hardened targets and that nuke plant they're using as well as the NK capital. Then the Marines would head up from the south and land along the coast and move inland, killing anyone who doesn't surrender. The push to the Chinese border should take less than a day. Chinese who move into NK would be legal targets and I'd have them hit hard.
I'd save the nukes for China in case a bloody nose doesn't convince them to choose their fights better.
The real trick is, that's pretty mountainous terrain and the NK have had a LOT of time to dig in. "Bunkers" doesn't begin to describe it. "Maginot Line" is proably closer... without the pesky exposed flank to run around.
There are other weapons, not relying on brute force, you can hardly run or hide from that are devastating not only due to their deadliness but also in regard to the effect on the enemy's moral but are generally frowned upon...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/02 07:53:18
I thought their only "successful" cruise missile tests had crashed into the sea of Japan? Where are they getting these range estimates from?
I'm thinking that this is just the usual media nonsense exacerbating a threat to make for better ratings...
No, they got a satellite into orbit successfully. The US confirmed it. This has to be like the third time I've told you when you've posted something similar.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
The universe has many horrors yet to throw at us. This is not the end of our struggle. This is just the beginning of our crusade to save Humanity. Be faithful! Be strong! Be vigilant! 
