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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/15 22:53:19
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Lieutenant Colonel
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from http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/05/14/disarming-realities-as-gun-sales-soar-gun-crimes-plummet/
Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
Larry Bell, Contributor
A couple of new studies reveal the gun-control hypesters’ worst nightmare…more people are buying firearms, while firearm-related homicides and suicides are steadily diminishing. What crackpots came up with these conclusions? One set of statistics was compiled by the U.S. Department of Justice. The other was reported by the Pew Research Center.
According to DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. gun-related homicides dropped 39 percent over the course of 18 years, from 18,253 during 1993, to 11,101 in 2011. During the same period, non-fatal firearm crimes decreased even more, a whopping 69 percent. The majority of those declines in both categories occurred during the first 10 years of that time frame. Firearm homicides declined from 1993 to 1999, rose through 2006, and then declined again through 2011. Non-fatal firearm violence declined from 1993 through 2004, then fluctuated in the mid-to-late 2000s.
And where did the bad people who did the shooting get most of their guns? Were those gun show “loopholes” responsible? Nope. According to surveys DOJ conducted of state prison inmates during 2004 (the most recent year of data available), only two percent who owned a gun at the time of their offense bought it at either a gun show or flea market. About 10 percent said they purchased their gun from a retail shop or pawnshop, 37 percent obtained it from family or friends, and another 40 percent obtained it from an illegal source.
While firearm violence accounted for about 70 percent of all homicides between 1993 and 2011, guns were used in less than 10 percent of all non-fatal violent crimes. Between 70 percent and 80 percent of those firearm homicides involved a handgun, and 90 percent of non-fatal firearm victimizations were committed with a handgun. Males, blacks, and persons aged 18-24 had the highest firearm homicide rates.
The March Pew study, drawn from numbers obtained from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, also found a dramatic drop in gun crime over the past two decades. Their accounting shows a 49 percent decline in the homicide rate, and a 75 percent decline of non-fatal violent crime victimization. More than 8 in 10 gun homicide victims in 2010 were men and boys. Fifty-five percent of the homicide victims were black, far beyond their 13 percent share of the population.
Pew researchers observed that the huge amount of attention devoted to gun violence incidents in the media has caused most Americans to be unaware that gun crime is “strikingly down” from 20 years ago. In fact, gun-related homicides in the late 2000s were “equal to those not seen since the early 1960s.” Yet their survey found that 56 percent believed gun-related crime is higher, 26 percent believed it stayed about the same, and 6 percent didn’t know. Only 12 percent of those polled thought it was lower.
The Pew survey found that while women and elderly were actually less likely to become crime victims, they were more likely to believe gun crime had increased in recent years. On the other hand, men, who were more likely to become victims, were more likely know that the gun rate had dropped.
Those gun crime rates certainly aren’t diminishing for lack of supply…at least not for law-abiding legal buyers. Last December, the FBI recorded a record number of 2.78 million background checks for purchases that month, surpassing a 2.01 million mark set the month before by about 39 percent. That December 2012 figure, in turn, was up 49 percent from a previous record on that month the year before. FBI checks for all of 2012 totaled 19.6 million, an annual record, and an increase of 19 percent over 2011.
Firearms sellers can thank the gun-control legislation lobbies for much of this business windfall. Marked demand increases have been witnessed over the past five years thanks to the 2008 and 2012 elections of U.S. history’s most successful, if unintentional, gun salesman as president. The firearms market got a huge added boost after the tragic shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newton, Connecticut activated a renewed legislative frenzy.
If that gun-purchasing fervor has abated with the defeat of several congressional regulation proposals, as I’m sure it has, you surely wouldn’t have known it by witnessing the overwhelmingly enormous annual NRA convention in Houston earlier this month. Attendance was estimated to be more than 70,000 people from all over the country.
Those attendees weren’t all guys either…not by a long shot. Last year, the National Shooting Sports Foundation reported that participation by women increased both in target shooting (46.5%) and hunting (36.6%) over the past decade. Also, 61% of firearm retailers responding to a NSSF survey reported an increase in female customers. A 2009 NSSF survey indicated that the number of women purchasing guns for personal defense increased a whopping 83 percent.
Is John Lott, the author of “More Guns, Less Crime” right? Does the rapid growth of gun ownership and armed citizens have anything to do with a diminishing gun violence trend? His expansive research concludes that state “shall issue” laws which allow citizens to carry concealed weapons do produce a steady decrease in violent crime. He explains that this is logical because criminals are deterred by the risk of attacking an armed target, so as more citizens arm themselves, danger to the criminals increases.
Whether or not you buy that reasoning, and it does make sense to me, what about the notion that tougher gun laws have or would make any difference? With the toughest gun laws in the nation, Chicago saw homicides jump to 513 in 2012, a 15% hike in a single year. The city’s murder rate is 15.65 per 100,000 people, compared with 4.5 for the Midwest, and 5.6 for Illinois.
Up to 80 percent of Chicago murders and non-fatal shootings are gang- related, primarily young black and Hispanic men killed by other black and Hispanic men. Would tightening gun laws even more, or “requiring” background checks, change these conditions?
Gwainevere Catchings Hess, president of the Black Women’s Agenda (BWA), Inc., an organization that strongly advocates strict gun-control legislation, rightly points out that “In 2009, black males ages 15-19 were eight times as likely as white males the same age, and 2.5 times as likely as their Hispanic peers to be killed in a gun homicide.”
Those are terrible statistics, but here are some others. Today, 72% of black children are born out of wedlock, as are 53% of Hispanic children and 36% of white children. Back in 1965, 25% of black children were born out of wedlock, nearly one-third fewer. As a result, promiscuous rappers, prosperous dope peddlers and street gang leaders are becoming ever more influential role models. It’s probably no big stretch of imagination to correlate such grossly disproportionate crime and victimization rates with comparably staggering rates of single-parent families, those without fathers in particular.
Yet in the general population, and although the agenda-driven media hasn’t noticed, we can be grateful that gun violence has been trending downward since 1993 when it hit its last peak. Don’t want to credit a rise in gun ownership and concealed carry by law-abiding citizens for this good news? Fine. But then, don’t imagine that gun legislation is the reason or answer either. Leave that illusion to gun-control cheerleaders in the media.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/15 23:05:39
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Blood Angel Captain Wracked with Visions
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An interesting read, thanks for sharing.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/15 23:16:57
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Member of the Ethereal Council
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Could it not be that crime itself is diminishing? Correlation des not equal causation
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/15 23:33:11
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Lieutenant Colonel
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hotsauceman1 wrote:Could it not be that crime itself is diminishing? Correlation des not equal causation
overall crime is diminishing, of all kinds, hence why the uber media hype is absurd and fear mongering.
the author simply quoted DOJ and pew research statistics.
He stated that the fact is gun crimes are going down, and more people have more guns then ever before. The author does not actually say more guns = less crime, he simply states those two facts and leaves that conclusion up to the reader.
It is also true that in this case there actually is a very solid case for causation if you want to get into that, but the article is mostly about the complete disconnect between reality (gun crime is much lower now, and is still decreasing) then the perceived reality (OMG rewrite the 2nd amendment and ban stuff cause gun crime is increasing)
where as all the talking heads on tv and gun control activist telling everyone that gun crime is rampart/increasing and that "more guns = more crime" as pure fact, fooling most people to the point where Pew researchers observed that the huge amount of attention devoted to gun violence incidents in the media has caused most Americans to be unaware that gun crime is “strikingly down” from 20 years ago. In fact, gun-related homicides in the late 2000s were “equal to those not seen since the early 1960s.” Yet their survey found that 56 percent believed gun-related crime is higher, 26 percent believed it stayed about the same, and 6 percent didn’t know. Only 12 percent of those polled thought it was lower.
it about the media purposely misinforming the public, with an agenda, that should be obvious.
simply saying causation=/=correlation is a cop out catch all answer that sounds like you did not read to the end with an open mind. if you actually read the whole thing
Yet in the general population, and although the agenda-driven media hasn’t noticed, we can be grateful that gun violence has been trending downward since 1993 when it hit its last peak. Don’t want to credit a rise in gun ownership and concealed carry by law-abiding citizens for this good news? Fine. But then, don’t imagine that gun legislation is the reason or answer either. Leave that illusion to gun-control cheerleaders in the media.
because he ADMITS there is not definet causation, and uses that very point to point out there is 0 causation between more guncontrol and less gun crime.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/15 23:38:17
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 00:17:03
Subject: Re:Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Fixture of Dakka
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Random semi-related trivia: Violent crimes peaked in 1993. In 1994 the first-person shooter game was born in the form of DOOM. Ever since then gun crimes have been decreasing.
Causation? Who knows. But it certainly makes the theory that violent video games CAUSE violent crimes to be highly suspect.
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CHAOS! PANIC! DISORDER!
My job here is done. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 00:25:50
Subject: Re:Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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5th God of Chaos! (Ho-hum)
Curb stomping in the Eye of Terror!
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Vulcan wrote:Random semi-related trivia: Violent crimes peaked in 1993. In 1994 the first-person shooter game was born in the form of DOOM. Ever since then gun crimes have been decreasing.
Causation? Who knows. But it certainly makes the theory that violent video games CAUSE violent crimes to be highly suspect.
Along the same vein that sex crimes are down... Pr0n is easily accessible ya know. Not that I would know!
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Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 00:31:14
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Hallowed Canoness
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Bottom line is that we are safer then we have ever been at any point in U.S. history crime wise. (as far back as we have records any way) so why in the world would people be freaking out and trying to push "crime control" bills constantly?
Simple. Control. Not of crime, but of you.
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I beg of you sarge let me lead the charge when the battle lines are drawn
Lemme at least leave a good hoof beat they'll remember loud and long
SoB, IG, SM, SW, Nec, Cus, Tau, FoW Germans, Team Yankee Marines, Battletech Clan Wolf, Mercs
DR:90-SG+M+B+I+Pw40k12+ID+++A+++/are/WD-R+++T(S)DM+ |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 00:50:49
Subject: Re:Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Vulcan wrote:Random semi-related trivia: Violent crimes peaked in 1993. In 1994 the first-person shooter game was born in the form of DOOM. Ever since then gun crimes have been decreasing.
Causation? Who knows. But it certainly makes the theory that violent video games CAUSE violent crimes to be highly suspect.
yes also very true, I think it was very silly to attribute any act of violence to a video game, nice factoid about doom there
where I am from,a serial killer literally copy cat-ed dexter down to a T, plastic wrap knifes, even the hair cut, so what?
dexter didnt cause the murder, some crazy guy did. blaming made up fantasies for peoples actions is just silly
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 01:22:06
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Hangin' with Gork & Mork
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The invention of the smart phone is responsible for the drop in crime.
Or maybe it was the steady proliferation of the internet.
I think it was Seinfeld going off the air, which left all the criminals depressed, and thus less likely to leave the house and commit crimes.
Or maybe it was the original 1994 Assault Weapons Ban that began the trend of lower gun crimes.
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Amidst the mists and coldest frosts he thrusts his fists against the posts and still insists he sees the ghosts.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 02:00:18
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Posts with Authority
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Ahtman wrote:The invention of the smart phone is responsible for the drop in crime.
Or maybe it was the steady proliferation of the internet.
I think it was Seinfeld going off the air, which left all the criminals depressed, and thus less likely to leave the house and commit crimes.
Or maybe it was the original 1994 Assault Weapons Ban that began the trend of lower gun crimes.
Nope. It was Aliens.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 02:26:37
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Hallowed Canoness
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According to DOJ and the CDC the '94 AWB had no discernible impact on crime.
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I beg of you sarge let me lead the charge when the battle lines are drawn
Lemme at least leave a good hoof beat they'll remember loud and long
SoB, IG, SM, SW, Nec, Cus, Tau, FoW Germans, Team Yankee Marines, Battletech Clan Wolf, Mercs
DR:90-SG+M+B+I+Pw40k12+ID+++A+++/are/WD-R+++T(S)DM+ |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 02:29:43
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Nigel Stillman
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hotsauceman1 wrote:Could it not be that crime itself is diminishing? Correlation des not equal causation
Forbes wrote:
more people are buying firearms, while firearm-related homicides and suicides are steadily diminishing.
Reading comprehension does wonders :3
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 02:29:48
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Mutilatin' Mad Dok
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easysauce wrote:
Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
the Pew Research Center
.
This part here here made the article take a bit longer to read
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/16 02:30:07
WAAAHG!!! until further notice
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 02:32:04
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Hangin' with Gork & Mork
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But gun crime went down since it was implemented, so it has just as much relationship and scholarship behind it as saying that people buying more guns lowered the crime rate. The only connection is the timing.
I personally don't think the AWB did anything, and was a bad bill, but the article above is a silly bit of agit-prop for the the more extreme gun advocates. The kind that confuse any regulation or even discussion of regulation as a total ban on all weapons with government round up.
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Amidst the mists and coldest frosts he thrusts his fists against the posts and still insists he sees the ghosts.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 02:57:25
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Death-Dealing Devastator
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Ahtman wrote:But gun crime went down since it was implemented, so it has just as much relationship and scholarship behind it as saying that people buying more guns lowered the crime rate. The only connection is the timing.
I personally don't think the AWB did anything, and was a bad bill, but the article above is a silly bit of agit-prop for the the more extreme gun advocates. The kind that confuse any regulation or even discussion of regulation as a total ban on all weapons with government round up.
Whether the conclusions drawn are correct or not, nobody's disputing the statistics. Gun crime is way down. The moral panic of the past six months has had as much basis as all other moral panics.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 03:18:22
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Hangin' with Gork & Mork
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Valion wrote:Whether the conclusions drawn are correct or not, nobody's disputing the statistics. Gun crime is way down.
Except that really isn't what the thread is about; it is about drawing a conclusion and saying it is correct. Even the title of the thread says it is about saying that higher gun sales = lower crime.
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Amidst the mists and coldest frosts he thrusts his fists against the posts and still insists he sees the ghosts.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 03:20:51
Subject: Re:Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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Issue is though for that. The masses are not informed....nor keep track of.....or listen to 2rd sources. Look how strong the Ban Assualt weapons, high capacity mag, and new background check started. Emotions rode hard on that one and politicians jumped to lead it. Action first before thought. If they thought first before action then I'm sure something would have been passed as in enforcing the current laws on the book...finding the stop gap and fixing it. Or mental health records are available to clear someone to purchase a weapon...just throwing it out there....besides they're already covering those of us with PTSD to allowed to purchase weapons...well...easier for us.....now we need to get the ammo shortage squared away lol. I burnt up four boxes of .30 on my M1 Carbine teaching a kid how to shoot a weapon before he is shipped off to San Diego Recruit Depot. I though made sure he was able to burn out 120 rds on my M4 using iron sights. Of course I had quite a bit of people looking at us.....on one 30 round mag I had him wear my body armor and ACH hehe
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Proud Member of the Infidels of OIF/OEF
No longer defending the US Military or US Gov't. Just going to ""**feed into your fears**"" with Duffel Blog
Did not fight my way up on top the food chain to become a Vegan...
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Once you pull the pin, Mr. Grenade is no longer your friend
DE 6700
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RIP Muhammad Ali.
Jihadin, Scorched Earth 791. Leader of the Pork Eating Crusader. Alpha
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 03:32:58
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Terminator with Assault Cannon
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KalashnikovMarine wrote:Bottom line is that we are safer then we have ever been at any point in U.S. history crime wise. (as far back as we have records any way) so why in the world would people be freaking out and trying to push "crime control" bills constantly?
Simple. Control. Not of crime, but of you.
Exactly.
Legal and responsible gun owners stop/prevent/mitigate crime all the time, but the only place you'll read about it is the local paper or newstation where the event happened. The MSM refuses to run those stories, huh, wonder why?
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SickSix's Silver Skull WIP thread
My Youtube Channel
JSF wrote:... this is really quite an audacious move by GW, throwing out any pretext that this is a game and that its customers exist to do anything other than buy their overpriced products for the sake of it. The naked arrogance, greed and contempt for their audience is shocking. = Epic First Post.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 04:30:45
Subject: Re:Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Nurgle Predator Driver with an Infestation
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Jihadin wrote:Issue is though for that. The masses are not informed....nor keep track of.....or listen to 2rd sources. Look how strong the Ban Assualt weapons, high capacity mag, and new background check started. Emotions rode hard on that one and politicians jumped to lead it. Action first before thought. If they thought first before action then I'm sure something would have been passed as in enforcing the current laws on the book...finding the stop gap and fixing it. Or mental health records are available to clear someone to purchase a weapon...just throwing it out there....besides they're already covering those of us with PTSD to allowed to purchase weapons...well...easier for us.....now we need to get the ammo shortage squared away lol. I burnt up four boxes of .30 on my M1 Carbine teaching a kid how to shoot a weapon before he is shipped off to San Diego Recruit Depot. I though made sure he was able to burn out 120 rds on my M4 using iron sights. Of course I had quite a bit of people looking at us.....on one 30 round mag I had him wear my body armor and ACH hehe
Thats pretty Moto man, Oo Rah. I hope that young Devil Dog has a hell of a good time in service.
SickSix wrote: KalashnikovMarine wrote:Bottom line is that we are safer then we have ever been at any point in U.S. history crime wise. (as far back as we have records any way) so why in the world would people be freaking out and trying to push "crime control" bills constantly?
Simple. Control. Not of crime, but of you.
Exactly.
Legal and responsible gun owners stop/prevent/mitigate crime all the time, but the only place you'll read about it is the local paper or newstation where the event happened. The MSM refuses to run those stories, huh, wonder why?
Very true.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/16 04:31:20
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 04:41:38
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Ahtman wrote: Valion wrote:Whether the conclusions drawn are correct or not, nobody's disputing the statistics. Gun crime is way down.
Except that really isn't what the thread is about; it is about drawing a conclusion and saying it is correct. Even the title of the thread says it is about saying that higher gun sales = lower crime.
exccept thats not what he is saying at all, he simply stated facts such as gun crime is down, and gun ownership is up, he has made his own conclusion but he does not assert it as some kind of "100% proven double blind study". unlike all the more guns = more crime crowds
simply saying causation=/=correlation is a cop out catch all answer that sounds like you did not read to the end with an open mind. if you actually read the whole thing
Yet in the general population, and although the agenda-driven media hasn’t noticed, we can be grateful that gun violence has been trending downward since 1993 when it hit its last peak. Don’t want to credit a rise in gun ownership and concealed carry by law-abiding citizens for this good news? Fine. But then, don’t imagine that gun legislation is the reason or answer either. Leave that illusion to gun-control cheerleaders in the media.
because he ADMITS there is not definet causation, and uses that very point to point out there is 0 causation between more guncontrol and less gun crime.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/05/16 04:45:01
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 04:45:34
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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The Dread Evil Lord Varlak
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Valion wrote:Whether the conclusions drawn are correct or not, nobody's disputing the statistics. Gun crime is way down. The moral panic of the past six months has had as much basis as all other moral panics.
Yes, it's down, but it's still really, really high. I mean, 10,000 firearm related deaths a year isn't something to just write off as 'in decline'. It's a big fething number.
Now, whether a total ban on guns could resolve that is, frankly, a completely academic issue, because the basic political realities of the US mean that any legislation that gets across the line is going to be so compromised that it places not one useful control on the purchase of guns (does anyone think the 'gun show' exemption to background checks was an accidental oversight? - it was a deliberately included exemption that made the whole process completely useless).
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“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 04:50:09
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Nurgle Predator Driver with an Infestation
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Banning guns wouldn't solve it, the day of the newtown shooting didn't some guy in china stab like 25 people in some kinda asian enduced rage?
Quick google search and this came up
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2248054/China-stabbing-22-children-elderly-woman-stabbed-outside-primary-school-Chinese-knifeman.html
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 05:25:28
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Death-Dealing Devastator
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sebster wrote:Yes, it's down, but it's still really, really high. I mean, 10,000 firearm related deaths a year isn't something to just write off as 'in decline'. It's a big fething number.
Now, whether a total ban on guns could resolve that is, frankly, a completely academic issue, because the basic political realities of the US mean that any legislation that gets across the line is going to be so compromised that it places not one useful control on the purchase of guns (does anyone think the 'gun show' exemption to background checks was an accidental oversight? - it was a deliberately included exemption that made the whole process completely useless).
Deliberately included or not, it's an exemption that provides a hilariously small amount of access to guns to criminals, according to statistics.
The bogeymen of the anti-gun movement simply aren't based in reality, is what these numbers show. It's not people getting around background checks through private sales, it's straw purchases and outright illegal acquisition. It's not AR-15s with high (or "standard," if you're using correct terminology) capacity magazines, it's cheap-ass Saturday night specials.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 05:42:48
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Lord Commander in a Plush Chair
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easysauce wrote:
Yet in the general population, and although the agenda-driven media hasn’t noticed, we can be grateful that gun violence has been trending downward since 1993 when it hit its last peak. Don’t want to credit a rise in gun ownership and concealed carry by law-abiding citizens for this good news? Fine. But then, don’t imagine that gun legislation is the reason or answer either. Leave that illusion to gun-control cheerleaders in the media.
because he ADMITS there is not definet causation, and uses that very point to point out there is 0 causation between more guncontrol and less gun crime.
He wants there to be causation. Saying 'don't believe me? Fine!' Seems to show where his opinion lies, as does the continual juxtaposition of putting the cause and effect alongside each other in the text. Also I thought it would have been a bit better had he not wandered off topic and started blaming 'promiscuous rappers', declining marriage, or kids being born 'out of wedlock' for being the root of crime, and on the back not no real evidence at all. His argument is that it's not a 'big stretch' to link these two sets of 'terrible statistics'.
In the UK crime is also decreasing, but of that violent crime is an increasing proportion. You're safer than ever in the UK and we've made it harder to get guns. But of all crimes committed, they are more frequently likely to be violent. Would be interesting to see how this compares to the US. I think crime is decreasing largely because society is improving, if you have better and wiser accessibility to healthcare and education, you'll be less likely to want to steal and rob people. You can say that violent crime has decreased in the US, you can't say if that's due to or in spite of the proliferation of guns. I'd say there are better ways of turning parts of society away from violent crime than arming the rest.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 06:27:50
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Heroic Senior Officer
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sebster wrote: Valion wrote:Whether the conclusions drawn are correct or not, nobody's disputing the statistics. Gun crime is way down. The moral panic of the past six months has had as much basis as all other moral panics.
Yes, it's down, but it's still really, really high. I mean, 10,000 firearm related deaths a year isn't something to just write off as 'in decline'. It's a big frakking number.
Now, whether a total ban on guns could resolve that is, frankly, a completely academic issue, because the basic political realities of the US mean that any legislation that gets across the line is going to be so compromised that it places not one useful control on the purchase of guns (does anyone think the 'gun show' exemption to background checks was an accidental oversight? - it was a deliberately included exemption that made the whole process completely useless).
It would help if useful ways to curb gun violence were brought up in the first place. Banning a certain model of handgun or rifle doesn't mean jack when we have literally hundreds of millions of firearms in the country. You also have to wonder how effective any major ban would "really" be. Places like England and Chicago have pretty serious bans in place already, and yet their police forces pull hundreds of firearms off the street every month, from the people that the bans are supposed to stop in the first place. If we want to curb gun violence in America, we have to treat the real problem of America, which is crime in general. Pulling random crap like the "War on Drugs" and gun bans is just avoiding the issue and is equivalent to slapping a bandaid on a gaping chest wound. You want to REALLY stomp out gun violence? Get better mental healthcare for people like the next would-be Newtown shooter. Clean up the slums that are rampant with crime in cities like Chicago. Figure out a way to actually recondition people to society while in prison instead of turning them into even worse offenders, where they're almost guaranteed to be back in a year. Figure out ways to help get families out of the ghettos, so that instead of resorting to prostitution, drug dealing, and other crime, they have an honest chance at living crime free lives like everyone else. Get people off of horrible substances like Heroin and Meth which can literally destroy your brain, etc. If you could figure out ways to fix these issues, America's gun violence issue would drop like a rock almost over night.
You also have to consider that the 10,000 deaths a year may not just be "illegal" homicides, but "legal" ones as well. Whether a gangbanger shoots a bum on the corner, a cop shoots an armed robber, a woman shoots an attempted rapist, a man shoots an intruder breaking into his home, a guy who blows his brains out after a bad divorce, or Dick Cheny mistakes his pal for a pheasant, if they're all showing up on that 10,000 homicides a year, it's going to skew things a bit. I'd have to check those statistics to find out for sure though, since the article quoted in the OP doesn't say, but if that is the case (where literally any death involving a firearm is counted as a homicide, which tends to be the case in America) instances where a gun was used in a "legal" way to kill someone would probably take up a decent percentage. I may be wrong there, I'd have to really dig into it to find out for sure.
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'I've played Guard for years, and the best piece of advice is to always utilize the Guard's best special rule: "we roll more dice than you" ' - stormleader
"Sector Imperialis: 25mm and 40mm Round Bases (40+20) 26€ (Including 32 skulls for basing) " GW design philosophy in a nutshell |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 07:53:58
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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The Dread Evil Lord Varlak
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Valion wrote:The bogeymen of the anti-gun movement simply aren't based in reality, is what these numbers show. It's not people getting around background checks through private sales, it's straw purchases and outright illegal acquisition. Sort of. But keep in mind a lot of killings are also done with legally purchased, legally possessed guns. There's also something of a myth that gun violence is purely a scumbag, career criminal thing (to which the implied answer is having a gun of your own). Lots of gun deaths are the product of otherwise law abiding citizens having a gun on hand at the wrong time. It's not AR-15s with high (or "standard," if you're using correct terminology) capacity magazines, it's cheap-ass Saturday night specials. Absolutely. If the focus was on guns that killed people, they'd look to ban handguns. But instead the focus is on guns that look scary, and so they look to ban whatever the hell 'assault weapons' are. Automatically Appended Next Post: MrMoustaffa wrote:It would help if useful ways to curb gun violence were brought up in the first place. Banning a certain model of handgun or rifle doesn't mean jack when we have literally hundreds of millions of firearms in the country. You also have to wonder how effective any major ban would "really" be. Places like England and Chicago have pretty serious bans in place already, and yet their police forces pull hundreds of firearms off the street every month, from the people that the bans are supposed to stop in the first place. If you look at the UK, their firearm death rate is much, much lower per capita than yours. It's also a bit screwy to talk about hundreds of guns being taken off the streets in England - there is a population there of more than 50 million - you think the guns taken from the streets is anywhere near a sixth of the guns taken off the streets in the UK? Point is, the plain and simple reality is that the US stands out as having a gun problem. Once we accept that, well then it's a whole issue to ask if there's anything that can be done to solve the problem, and whether those solutions have a hope in hell of getting passed. I've not seen any really good proposals that sound like they'd actually limit the problem, so I kind of doubt there's a legislative fix to the issue. And then you look at the pathetic, do-nothing legislation that's actually put up and generally shot down, and I'm left to conclude that even if good, clear solutions existed, they'd have feth all chance of being passed . Honestly, the issue is cultural. Guns are like drugs in a way - if enough people want them they're going to get them, no matter what laws you put in place. Basically, if the gun culture ever changed and you saw an actual decline in the demand for guns, well then you'd likely see a decline in gun violence. But just banning weapons, or worse putting in half measures that sort of ban some weapons... well that's not going to change anything. If we want to curb gun violence in America, we have to treat the real problem of America, which is crime in general. Not really. The rest of the developed world has drug use, gangs and all that stuff. We have equal or greater rates of crime in all sorts of categories, except murder and gun violence and all that. There the US stands apart by like a factor of 10. You also have to consider that the 10,000 deaths a year may not just be "illegal" homicides, but "legal" ones as well. Whether a gangbanger shoots a bum on the corner, a cop shoots an armed robber, a woman shoots an attempted rapist, a man shoots an intruder breaking into his home, a guy who blows his brains out after a bad divorce, or Dick Cheny mistakes his pal for a pheasant, if they're all showing up on that 10,000 homicides a year, it's going to skew things a bit. A homicide isn't legal by definition. That's what it means - illegal killings. The deaths by guns rate is even higher (as there are a lot of suicides).
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This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2013/05/16 08:25:47
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 08:12:14
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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[MOD]
Anti-piracy Officer
Somewhere in south-central England.
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Since gun sales aren't recorded, it's impossible to know the opening statement is factual.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 08:40:59
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord
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easysauce wrote:He stated that the fact is gun crimes are going down, and more people have more guns then ever before. The author does not actually say more guns = less crime, he simply states those two facts and leaves that conclusion up to the reader.
Yeah, Whembly makes disingenuous implied correlations like that all the time, too.
For example, since 1990, the level of religiousity in America has been steadily declining, just like the level of gun violence. Now, I'm not saying gun violence is caused by religion; I'm simply stating those two facts and will leave the conclusions up to the reader.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 08:44:35
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Hallowed Canoness
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Kilkrazy wrote:Since gun sales aren't recorded, it's impossible to know the opening statement is factual.
Sales are actually meticulously documented by FFLs. Just not who they go to, at least not in permanent records like the FFL's bound book. So numbers would actually be obtainable.
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Lemme at least leave a good hoof beat they'll remember loud and long
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/05/16 08:47:58
Subject: Disarming Realities: As Gun Sales Soar, Gun Crimes Plummet
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Bounding Ultramarine Assault Trooper
Chandler, Arizona
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Kilkrazy wrote:Since gun sales aren't recorded, it's impossible to know the opening statement is factual.
Form 4473.
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"You are judged in life, not by the evil you destroy, but by the light you bring to the darkness" - Reclusiarch Grimaldus of the Black Templars |
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