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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/13 00:30:02
Subject: Probability tables
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Wicked Canoptek Wraith
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I was wondering if anyone had made probability tables for the game. Like one for the probability of a given mat/rat hitting a given defense, and one that gives average points of damage for a given power hitting a given armor. I did a google search but didn't find anything.
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The key to strategy is not to choose a path to victory, but to choose so that all paths lead to a victory.
War is beautiful because it establishes man’s dominion over the subjugated machinery by means of gas masks, terrifying megaphones, flame throwers, and small tanks. War is beautiful because it initiates the dreamt-of metalization of the human body. War is beautiful because it enriches a flowering meadow with the fiery orchids of machine guns. War is beautiful because it combines the gunfire, the cannonades, the cease-fire, the scents, and the stench of putrefaction into a symphony.
-Filippo Tommaso Marinetti |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/13 00:33:54
Subject: Probability tables
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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There's an app named Hit Chance that does it for you. You input the stats for each time, though.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/13 00:44:10
Subject: Probability tables
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~leif/FRP/probability.html
or you can do basic math
Each d6 is worth 3.5
Def or Arm subtracted by Attack or P+S
So if you are Def 14 vs Mat 6
14 - 6 = 8
Rolling 2d6 = 3.5*2 = 7, Is 8 above 7? You have a below average chance to hit
Rolling 3d6 = 3.5*3 = 10.5, Is 10.5 above 7? You have a above average chance to hit
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/08/13 00:47:07
6+ = 6/36 | Reroll 1s = 7/36 | Reroll Misses = 11/36 ||||||| 5+ = 12/36 | Reroll 1s 14/36 | Reroll Misses = 20/36 ||||||| 4+ = 18/36 | Reroll 1s 21/36 | Reroll Misses = 27/36
3+ = 24/36 | Reroll 1s 28/36 | Reroll Misses = 32/36 ||||||| 2+ = 30/36 | Reroll 1s 35/36 ||||||| Highest of 2d6 = 4.47 |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/13 08:45:01
Subject: Probability tables
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Longtime Dakkanaut
Brisbane, Australia
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkGYclg97v2ydHhjVnNDWDJqVUszcW8wdDlLUV9IVEE&authkey=CPKM2_kC#gid=0
There ya go. Provided by some kind soul on the PP forums, who I forget the name of. Edit just the 5 spaces next to where it says (Defenders DEF, ARM and wounds, attackers MAT and POW).
It'll give you probabilities to hit, expected damage (Including for special rules such as Decapitation and Armor Piercing), and the expected number of attacks to kill the target on average.
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This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/08/13 08:47:05
Looking for a club in Brisbane, Australia? Come and enjoy a game and a beer at Pubhammer, our friendly club in a pub at the Junction pub in Annerley (opposite Ace Comics), Sunday nights from 6:30. All brisbanites welcome, don't wait, check out our Club Page on Facebook group for details or to organize a game. We play all sorts of board and war games, so hit us up if you're interested.
Pubhammer is Moving! Starting from the 25th of May we'll be gaming at The Junction pub (AKA The Muddy Farmer), opposite Ace Comics & Games in Annerley! Still Sunday nights from 6:30 in the Function room Come along and play Warmachine, 40k, boardgames or anything else! |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/14 03:58:38
Subject: Re:Probability tables
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The Conquerer
Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios
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The average roll on 2d6 is 7. Each additional dice adds 3.5.
Note this is still just a little over 50/50.
There are 36 possible results on 2D6, 216 IIRC on 3D6. To figure out the probability, you add all the results that add to the desired amount(or greater) and divide by the total possible results.
On 2D6, there are 21 results that total 7 or greater. So a 21/36 chance(or 58.3333%)
Here is a simple 2D6 grid
1,1 - 1,2 - 1,3 - 1,4 - 1,5 - 1,6
2,1 - 2,2 - 2,3 - 2,4 - 2,5 - 2,6
3,1 - 3,2 - 3,3 - 3,4 - 3,5 - 3,6
4,1 - 4,2 - 4,3 - 4,4 - 4,5 - 4,6
5,1 - 5,2 - 5,3 - 5,4 - 5,5 - 5,6
6,1 - 6,2 - 6,3 - 6,4 - 6,5 - 6,6
You can do a similar grid for 3D6, although it would be 3 dimensional.
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Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
MURICA!!! IN SPESS!!! |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/14 06:40:03
Subject: Re:Probability tables
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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6+ = 6/36 | Reroll 1s = 7/36 | Reroll Misses = 11/36 ||||||| 5+ = 12/36 | Reroll 1s 14/36 | Reroll Misses = 20/36 ||||||| 4+ = 18/36 | Reroll 1s 21/36 | Reroll Misses = 27/36
3+ = 24/36 | Reroll 1s 28/36 | Reroll Misses = 32/36 ||||||| 2+ = 30/36 | Reroll 1s 35/36 ||||||| Highest of 2d6 = 4.47 |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/15 04:48:44
Subject: Re:Probability tables
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[DCM]
GW Public Relations Manager (Privateer Press Mole)
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Here you go:
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/08/15 10:23:21
Subject: Re:Probability tables
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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Great Chart, tho I dont think it needed the section of "If your Pow is 120 over Arm"
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6+ = 6/36 | Reroll 1s = 7/36 | Reroll Misses = 11/36 ||||||| 5+ = 12/36 | Reroll 1s 14/36 | Reroll Misses = 20/36 ||||||| 4+ = 18/36 | Reroll 1s 21/36 | Reroll Misses = 27/36
3+ = 24/36 | Reroll 1s 28/36 | Reroll Misses = 32/36 ||||||| 2+ = 30/36 | Reroll 1s 35/36 ||||||| Highest of 2d6 = 4.47 |
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