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If they are, we'll be ready:

I hate math, which is apparent since I'm in the major with the least amount of math possible On a serious note about the equation, the values of each very from person to person as you said right? Which means 1 thing to me, the equation in itself may be valid but the values of each letter leave too much open to assumption to be accepted into a valid hypothesis about life on other worlds or "goldielocs planets" (not too hot, not too cold, just right to be able to sustain life as we know it) but that's just my opinion based on my belief in Occam's razor. On a side note, we have only found 1 possible goldielocs planet in 20 years of searching

Yes, they are out there. The universe is too vast to not hold other intelligent species, it would be arrogant to think we are the only ones.

 chapgrimaldus wrote:
On a side note, we have only found 1 possible goldielocs planet in 20 years of searching

I count quite a few ;

The moons around Gliese 876 b & c
Upsilon Andromedae d
HD 28185 b
HD 69830
55 Cancri A
Gliese 581 c (I assume this is the one you are talking about)
Gliese 581 d
Gliese 581 g
HD 85512 b
Kepler-22 b
Gliese 667 Cc, Cf & Ce
Gliese 163 c
HD 40307 g
Tau Ceti e & f
Kepler-69c
Kepler-62e & f

And 20 years of searching is very short. And we've found all of these from here. Imagine what we can find once we have searching capabilities that are much greater than what we have right now.

 Kovnik Obama wrote:

 chapgrimaldus wrote:
-snaps fingers- a part of me was hoping some believer would come in so I can use logic and facts to ground his/her imaginary aliens to make my bread

Here ya go



N (and pretty much all the other values) will vary a lot depending on who you ask, and the original estimate by Drake (and the Order of the Dolphin, which Sagan was part of ) was between 1000 and 100,000,000. for the Milky Way.

On a similar note, Stephen H. Dole adapted the equation to estimate the number of currently humanly habitable planets in the Milky Way. The figure given was above 36 millions.

As much fun as it is to speculate the sheer number of alien civilizations using the Drake Equation, at the end of the day it is still just speculation.

To quote Enrico Fermi, "Where are they?"

Great post Kovnik, I think the equation makes some pretty big assumptions--but it does illustrate how likely (imo) there is life throughout the universe.

Sadly though, I'm not as optimistic as others about actually seeing them. The speed of light barrier seems to be pretty much a brick wall--and I can't recall exactly off the top of my head--but if memory servers, 40 light years would take something along the lines of 300,000 years to traverse with fairly optimistic technological advancements. So, star travel would take as long or longer than our entire species has been around and I would bet more on us blowing each other up with technology before utilizing it in that manner.



All that said, it's an interesting though experiment. What (should) trouble us the most is--it appears at least from our one example--evolution favors aggressive clamoring for natural resources. Take us for example--even though we are sentient--anytime we have 'explored', in reality we were seeking resources and colonizing. And if the laws of physics actually allowed intelligent beings to travel light years in a manageable time frame, if they showed up--it would be doubtful it was a visit of simple curiosity.


As an aside, I'll post one of the cooler images I've ever seen. This is a matrix of the 'dark' energy and matter in our universe;






...and this is a mapping of clusters of neurons;







So, does information/complexity lend itself to cluster and map---just like our universe seems to cluster information/complex structures/elements around stars? Don't know but it's sure neat to think about




Could be coincidence, could be pointing to some kind of mathematical constant that determines how entropy forms--or? Pretty cool though.

Holy dinosaur-headed Jesus, batman!

I think the likeliest possibility is communication (over a very long period of time).

 AgeOfEgos wrote:
All that said, it's an interesting though experiment. What (should) trouble us the most is--it appears at least from our one example--evolution favors aggressive clamoring for natural resources. Take us for example--even though we are sentient--anytime we have 'explored', in reality we were seeking resources and colonizing. And if the laws of physics actually allowed intelligent beings to travel light years in a manageable time frame, if they showed up--it would be doubtful it was a visit of simple curiosity.

Using game theory, biologists found evolution actually "favors" altruism as opposed to selfishness, which is not evolutionarily sustainable.

I would argue that it is reasonably safe to say that any organism that has evolved to the point that it has mastered the technology required for reliable interstellar travel would not travel to a backwoods star system in the outer suburbs of a nondescript galaxy just to take our stuff.

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:
As much fun as it is to speculate the sheer number of alien civilizations using the Drake Equation, at the end of the day it is still just speculation.

To quote Enrico Fermi, "Where are they?"

Of course, this entire thread is filled with speculations based on assumptions, with a few scarce badly-understood facts. Asking about aliens forces you into the realm of speculation. The Drake Equation gives the essential numerical data necessary to give an informed guess, and the specific numbers beleived to be correct at a given point by the experts in the field/needing a new grant. That is important data.

You guys should check out Seth Shostak's (S.E.T.I. veteran and popular TV personality in science documentaries) "Confessions of an Alien Hunter" book. I read it when it first came out and it basically discusses, in great detail and with professional accuracy and credibility, exactly what we are talking about in this thread. The Fermi paradox, the Drake equation, the extraordinary efforts of humans made thus far to listen in and contact E.T. It's just a great book written by an authority on the search for extraterrestrials.

It's available in e-format as well for you tech-heads. Honestly, it's a fantastic/interesting read.

Really? IIRC, the game theory studies Dawins/group did showed that Tit for Tat was the most favored trait--which is really just reciprocal/selfish altruism. Again though, IIRC--as I'm on an ipad and am too lazy to Google .


Anyways--I don't think they would specifically make a stop to our planet (although, until we get better at finding planets--it might be such a thing that 'life' is a pretty rare resource others might be interested in if they stumbled across us). Not that I really think that will ever happen.


But it is a good discussion and an interesting thought debate (good aliens vs. colonizing aliens). Spawned a few movies too .

If aliens ever did stumble upon earth, chances are we would be in big trouble. Human history has us treating different cultures with extreme prejudice and extermination, and we are the same species. Imagine an ultra-advanced race finding us and deciding they want something from us. We lose.

It's in our best interest to keep a low profile on the galactic scene. Too late though, we've been shooting our mouths off for too long with radio signals and broadcasts and SATELLITES CONTAINING PLAQUES WITH OUR EXACT LOCATION, PHYSIOLOGY, AND BIOLOGICAL COMPOSITION!!! I'm aware the purpose of those packages was to preserve our legacy in some small way, but it was probably a bad idea. LOL.

Nice post K.O. though its our perception and stop ruining it for us

Though we never know in our life time if there is a Prime Directive (version)

 AgeOfEgos wrote:
Really? IIRC, the game theory studies Dawins/group did showed that Tit for Tat was the most favored trait--which is really just reciprocal/selfish altruism. Again though, IIRC--as I'm on an ipad and am too lazy to Google .


Anyways--I don't think they would specifically make a stop to our planet (although, until we get better at finding planets--it might be such a thing that 'life' is a pretty rare resource others might be interested in if they stumbled across us). Not that I really think that will ever happen.


But it is a good discussion and an interesting thought debate (good aliens vs. colonizing aliens). Spawned a few movies too .

It came from a paper published in August that says selfish behavior can benefit an organism on the short term, but in the long run it would not be evolutionarily sustainable; individuals don't have to survive, just their genes.

If aliens ever did stumble upon earth, chances are we would be in big trouble. Human history has us treating different cultures with extreme prejudice and extermination, and we are the same species. Imagine an ultra-advanced race finding us and deciding they want something from us. We lose.

It's in our best interest to keep a low profile on the galactic scene. Too late though, we've been shooting our mouths off for too long with radio signals and broadcasts and SATELLITES CONTAINING PLAQUES WITH OUR EXACT LOCATION, PHYSIOLOGY, AND BIOLOGICAL COMPOSITION!!! I'm aware the purpose of those packages was to preserve our legacy in some small way, but it was probably a bad idea. LOL.

Some people (Stephen Hawking among them) do think that letting the universe know where we are is a "bad idea" but I agree with Carl Sagan in thinking that a technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilization would also be advanced ethically. Not only would they not be aggressive, we would recognize their technological prowess and respond in kind.

Think about the kind of energy that would be required for reasonably fast and reliable interstellar travel for a moment. Any civilization that can produce and harness that kind of energy would probably be utilizing some kind of stellar megastructure (like Dyson sphere/shell/ring or some other stellar engine) and wouldn't need anything we have to offer on this planet (coal, oil, nuclear fuel, etc.).

 PrehistoricUFO wrote:
If aliens ever did stumble upon earth, chances are we would be in big trouble. Human history has us treating different cultures with extreme prejudice and extermination, and we are the same species. Imagine an ultra-advanced race finding us and deciding they want something from us. We lose.

Any species with the capabilty of travelling to another solar system cannot possibly lack for anything that is on this little planet.

You're all so sure they wouldn't want anything from Earth, even if it were a marginal boost to their needs. To use us as slaves, test subjects, test a weapon out designed to destroy M-class worlds, or to turn our planet into a zoo or amusement park. I hope you're correct, believe me.

 sebster wrote:
Any species with the capabilty of travelling to another solar system cannot possibly lack for anything that is on this little planet.

A light snack on the way to greener pastures? We have significantly better technology than, say, ants; but we don't treat them with altruism just because we don't need anything they have. We have no qualms about wiping them out just because they are a nuisance, or hell, if you're a child, simply because you're bored.


I think I stole this analogy from Contact.

You got it from Avengers. Samuel L Jackson convo with Loki when they first met I believe. Underground Science Lab with Hawkeye taking over by the "Love Tap"

 PrehistoricUFO wrote:
You're all so sure they wouldn't want anything from Earth, even if it were a marginal boost to their needs. To use us as slaves, test subjects, test a weapon out designed to destroy M-class worlds, or to turn our planet into a zoo or amusement park. I hope you're correct, believe me.

A civilization that advanced wouldn't need anything from us, our fuels wouldn't offer nothing to a truly space-faring civilization. If they can get here, they don't need what we have; our resources aren't that special.

A light snack on the way to greener pastures? We have significantly better technology than, say, ants; but we don't treat them with altruism just because we don't need anything they have. We have no qualms about wiping them out just because they are a nuisance, or hell, if you're a child, simply because you're bored.


I think I stole this analogy from Contact.

Yeah, it's from Avengers. The aliens in Contact are the kind I was describing earlier (it was written by Carl Sagan, after all), they don't threaten us and and instead want to help us by giving us the the stepping stones into intergalactic citizenship. There is no reason to assume that we would be a "nuisance" to a technologically superior civilization, especially when their ethics have advanced in pace with their technology.

 Ouze wrote:
A light snack on the way to greener pastures? We have significantly better technology than, say, ants; but we don't treat them with altruism just because we don't need anything they have. We have no qualms about wiping them out just because they are a nuisance, or hell, if you're a child, simply because you're bored.


I think I stole this analogy from Contact.

My point isn't a claim that aliens must be altruistic, but if they're not they're unlikely to expend the resource to come to this little planet. To extend your analogy, no-one would fly to South America just to jump up and down on some ant nests. It's just a really long way to go, and a huge investment of resources, for little purpose.

It would be a tremendous waste of space to have no other life in the universe.

Of course, I think it would also be interesting if there wasn't any.

Can you imagine being so alone?

 xole wrote:
It would be a tremendous waste of space to have no other life in the universe.

Of course, I think it would also be interesting if there wasn't any.

Can you imagine being so alone?

Yes, we've spent the last 200,000 (or 50,000 if you only count our development of behavioral modernity) years doing it.

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 xole wrote:
It would be a tremendous waste of space to have no other life in the universe.

Of course, I think it would also be interesting if there wasn't any.

Can you imagine being so alone?

Yes, we've spent the last 200,000 (or 50,000 if you only count our development of behavioral modernity) years doing it.

But we believe there is something beyond us. And we will continue to believe so.

I admit to being quite interested in the Ancient Astronaut Theory and Ancient Aliens is a favorite show of mine. That being said when I ask myself "What do I actually believe?" I am unable to come up with a definitive answer. I do think there is something to it because of the ammount of evidence put forth that at least shows a possibility. If it were only one or two things that could easily be dismissed but this much requires a further look. If the powers that be are so sure they are right then why not investigate and prove the fringe groups wrong.

 xole wrote:

 ScootyPuffJunior wrote:

 xole wrote:
It would be a tremendous waste of space to have no other life in the universe.

Of course, I think it would also be interesting if there wasn't any.

Can you imagine being so alone?

Yes, we've spent the last 200,000 (or 50,000 if you only count our development of behavioral modernity) years doing it.

But we believe there is something beyond us. And we will continue to believe so.

Some of us believe that there is life somewhere, but humanity as a whole understands that we are in it alone. Believing something is true is not the same as knowing for fact that it is.
I am a firm believer in the mediocrity principle and I agree that given the vast size and age of the universe, and the fact that all physical laws are consistent with everything we obverse, it is improbable for life not exist elsewhere. However, everywhere we have looked we have found nothing.

As Carl Sagan said:

Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

Guys, please don't use the word believe. It implies there's no logic or reasoning involved. Why do you think people believe in God and not think God exists?

Fluxator wrote:
Guys, please don't use the word believe. It implies there's no logic or reasoning involved. Why do you think people believe in God and not think God exists?

How does it imply no logic or reasoning? For instance, if I believe that the sky is blue, because of X, Y, and Z then there is logic and reasoning. If I believe that my vehicle is better than a buddy's vehicle, because it has better fuel mileage, better safety ratings, and a better pricepoint, then there is a certain level of logic and reasoning.

If anything, believe is the much better word to use, as opposed to saying something like "I have FAITH that there are aliens out there" as faith is the belief in something that cannot be proven.

I found this mildly interesting - although the title doesn't seem to have much to do with the article. Stupid hyperbole.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10321227/Alien-life-found-living-in-Earths-atmosphere-claims-scientist.html

 sebster wrote:

 PrehistoricUFO wrote:
If aliens ever did stumble upon earth, chances are we would be in big trouble. Human history has us treating different cultures with extreme prejudice and extermination, and we are the same species. Imagine an ultra-advanced race finding us and deciding they want something from us. We lose.

Any species with the capabilty of travelling to another solar system cannot possibly lack for anything that is on this little planet.

Hot babes.