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2014/02/13 01:20:51
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
AegisGrimm wrote: Global Warming is a completely made up term, and really doesn't have anything based in fact about it.
Every term gets made up at some point or another, the days of God sending his angels from heaven down just to give us new words has long since passed.
And there is a vast amount of science behind climate change. I agree that there are lots of other environmental issues that also need to be addressed, but climate change is definitely the most important right now.
As for climate change, have a look at global average temperature estimates, such as
You should have read the thread. Issues with the temperature measures, specifically that they don't capture the areas that are most expected to have increased in temperature, and only measure surface temperature, have already been mentioned.
And it is still showing a temperature increase!
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/02/13 02:06:51
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2014/02/13 10:38:28
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Minx wrote: As for climate change, have a look at global average temperature estimates, such as
And it is still showing a temperature increase!
That was my point. The graph clearly shows the increase, and it is even more pronounced with the newer estimate (C&W hybrid) using satellite data to cover more of the globe. And even though the multi-model-average overestimates the increase the measurements are all well within the 2-sigma band. I wouldn't discard all of them just yet.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/13 10:38:54
2014/02/14 01:47:15
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Minx wrote: That was my point. The graph clearly shows the increase, and it is even more pronounced with the newer estimate (C&W hybrid) using satellite data to cover more of the globe. And even though the multi-model-average overestimates the increase the measurements are all well within the 2-sigma band. I wouldn't discard all of them just yet.
Ah fair enough. Your graph was very similar to the OP's, so I thought you were making the same point (over-estimate of surface temperature therefore discard).
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2014/02/14 06:47:43
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Medium of Death wrote: Don't you know, all Americans are gifted with an innate and complete understanding of all weather patterns throughout history?
It's like science or something!
Or I've just been forecasting the weather over the UK for the last 5.5 years...
Meteorologists claiming to be authorities on the science of climate change and peddling the "we just don't know" spiel is akin to engineers claiming to be experts on high energy particle physics insisting that the LHC was going to cause black holes; there's some overlap between both fields, but they are not equivalent.
"Your society's broken, so who should we blame? Should we blame the rich, powerful people who caused it? No, lets blame the people with no power and no money and those immigrants who don't even have the vote. Yea, it must be their fething fault." - Iain M Banks
-----
"The language of modern British politics is meant to sound benign. But words do not mean what they seem to mean. 'Reform' actually means 'cut' or 'end'. 'Flexibility' really means 'exploit'. 'Prudence' really means 'don't invest'. And 'efficient'? That means whatever you want it to mean, usually 'cut'. All really mean 'keep wages low for the masses, taxes low for the rich, profits high for the corporations, and accept the decline in public services and amenities this will cause'." - Robin McAlpine from Common Weal
2014/02/14 12:01:22
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Met Office: Evidence 'suggests climate change link to storms'
Climate change is likely to be a factor in the extreme weather that has hit much of the UK in recent months, the Met Office's chief scientist has said.
Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms.
"But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.
"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events."
More than 130 severe flood warnings - indicating a threat to life - have been issued since December. In contrast, there were only nine in the whole of 2012.
More than 5,000 properties have been flooded over this period, although the Environment Agency says investment in flood defences over the past decade has protected a further 1.3 million properties.
'Exceptional'
Speaking ahead of the launch of a Met Office report - produced by the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology - into recent climatic events, Dame Julia said the UK had seen the "most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years".
Unsettled weather at this time of year was not unexpected - but the prolonged spell of rain, as well as the intensity and height of coastal waves, was "very unusual".
"We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this," she said. "We have seen some exceptional weather. We can't say it is unprecedented but it is exceptional."
The report links the recent extreme weather in Europe and North America to "perturbations" in the North Atlantic and Pacific jet streams, partly emanating from changing weather patterns in South East Asia and "associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region".
"The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic [caused by humans] global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall," it says.
'Makes sense'
"Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences."
David Cameron has said the UK must be prepared for more extreme weather.
At Prime Minister's Questions last month, Mr Cameron said he "suspected" that the recent storms to batter the UK and the extreme weather in North America were connected to global temperature changes - an argument challenged by some Conservative MPs and peers.
He subsequently clarified the remarks, saying that although "you can't point to one weather event and say that is climate change", many scientists were talking of a link between the two.
"The point I was really trying to make is, whatever you think - even if you think that (climate change) is mumbo-jumbo - because these things are happening more often, it makes sense to do all you can to... prevent these floods affecting so many people and that is exactly what we are doing."
Friends of the Earth climate campaigner Guy Shrubsole said this assessment was a "warning sign that cannot be ignored".
"By appointing an environment secretary who doesn't take climate change seriously this government has turned its back on the science and cut flood defence spending when it should be cutting emissions."
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2014/02/14 12:41:30
Subject: 95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
China, the original Hive City, complete with hostile environment.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
2014/02/14 13:10:02
Subject: 95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Frazzled wrote: China, the original Hive City, complete with hostile environment.
Ha ha ha seems we are going that way
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2014/02/15 01:30:45
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Medium of Death wrote: Don't you know, all Americans are gifted with an innate and complete understanding of all weather patterns throughout history?
It's like science or something!
Or I've just been forecasting the weather over the UK for the last 5.5 years...
I'm actually kind of fascinated by your posts djones, and I don't mean that in a facetious/sarcastic way.
As someone who has worked in meteorlogy for years, firstly I assume you think that climate change/global warming is happening at a much lower rate than forcast, or do you contend that it's not happening (or not due to human input) at all?
I'm not a climatologist, or anyone with a background in science beyond reading. Like many things in life I trust established scientific opinion, that when there is consensus about a topic (and this can be about absolutely anything) that that, most likely, is our best guess at something at that time.
The prevailing scientific opinion is that human-instigated global warming is a reality. I'm genuinely interested to know why someone who works in the field might think otherwise, and how you have come to form this opinion?
I'm a meteorologist, with very limited training in climatology. I don't claim to be an expert on this. Just someone who has a better founding in the subject then most.
I also don't know for sure what is happening. I have a gut feeling (and with my experience over the last 12 years, I've learned to trust it) that humans impact is overstated.
What I do know for sure though, is that we don't know enough to be saying beyond a shadow of a doubt that we are a major player in what is going on in the atmosphere. There are still to many variables uncounted for. The simple fact that the forecasts were off on a drastic scale (yes Sebster, .3c is drastic considering the levels of change that was being discussed) shows that. That being said, I work with forecast models day in and day out. I know how to "correct" the data the provide when they are wrong. The IPCC failed to do that to the extent they probably should have when they released their latest study.
Things like that, Al Gore, the findings of potentially fudged data to scew results, and a myriad of other things have led me to believe that a large part of the "concensus" is fiscally and politically driven. AGW causes sensation, which leads to hysteria, which leads to funding. If there is nothing to worry about, then there is nothing to spend money on. Being a government employee I'm also very familiar with that school of thinking. We go through it every year around the end of the Fiscal year. How can we continue to justify our budgets? How can we get them expanded?
I see it all as a money game. And the fact that to date, very little of the doom and gloom has been right, nothing has yet swayed my view on it.
Full Frontal Nerdity
2014/02/15 02:06:37
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
I always figured that instead of Global Warming, we need to worry more about air, water and ground quality, as those are things where we are making vast, measurably bad effects to the environment, that even normal laymen can observe with the naked eye. They are also the things that *should* be easiest to enact change upon.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/15 02:07:18
"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
2014/02/15 02:08:48
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
It is kinda dumb. Global Warming can be argued till the cows come home, but one look at a smoggy city or garbage-choked river and you instantly go "Eww, that's not healthy for ANYONE".
I mean, my god what about that dam in China that was threatening to fail because of the weight of the garbage up against it?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/02/15 02:15:49
"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
2014/02/15 02:17:13
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Most of that is probably just wood that is caught up by the dam, and would normally never be noticed without the dam there.
Edit: Excuse my typos. Multi-tasking between the nor'easter that's gonna mess with New England tomorrow, some Severe Turbulence of the Southern States, and ferrying a bunch of jets over some oceans. Busy night...
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/02/15 03:53:11
Full Frontal Nerdity
2014/02/15 03:59:36
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios
Yeah, the trash might get through if it wasn't for all those sticks.
Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
djones520 wrote: Most of that is probably just wood that is caught up by the dam, and would normally never be noticed without the dam there.
Edit: Excuse my typos. Multi-tasking between the nor'easter that's gonna mess with New England tomorrow, some Severe Turbulence of the Southern States, and ferrying a bunch of jets over some oceans. Busy night...
And posting on DakkaDakka...
That's some serious multi-tasking folks!
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2014/02/15 04:16:14
Subject: 95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
Personally, I think Kaku should stick to quantum physics and let actual meteorologists handle the since of the weather.
Warner Todd Huston wrote:CBS Blames Global Warming for Bad Winter
During the February 13 broadcast of CBS This Morning, host Charlie Rose and his guest turned to the topic of this year's harsh winter, calling the extreme cold an example of global warming.
Guest Michio Kaku, a physics professor from New York City College--not a climatologist, but a physicist--claimed that the "wacky weather" could get "even wackier" and its all because of global warming. "What we're seeing is that the jet stream and the polar vortex are becoming unstable. Instability of historic proportions. We think it's because of the gradual heating up of the North Pole. The North Pole is melting," professor Kaku said.
"That excess heat generated by all this warm water is destabilizing this gigantic bucket of cold air... So that's the irony, that heating could cause gigantic storms of historic proportions," the prof explained.
This was all because of global warming, Rose insisted.
Kaku went on to say that the weather "instabilities" we are seeing are because of the "erratic nature of the jet stream" and the "polar vortex."
Kaku also said that it is too late to change any of this:
Well, the bad news is that the north polar region continues to rise in temperature, it seems to be irreversible at a certain point, so we may have to get used to a new normal. That is, a north polar region that is melting, causing more instability in this bucket, causing more things to spill out, which means more extremes. Some winters could be very mild, other winters could be horrendous.
According to The Weather Channel, the Polar Vortex is not the sort of weather system that directly affects the surface. In fact, the polar vortex is an upper atmosphere system, not one that impacts directly on the surface of the earth.
Further, the idea that the polar vortex has become "unstable" is not necessarily true.The Weather Channel notes that the upper atmosphere system sometimes shifts, helping to sweep weather systems in the lower atmosphere to drift far afield from more common patterns.
CBS Host Norah O'Donnell also took the occasion of the discussion to claim that 2014 will be the hottest summer ever.
Ouze wrote: Lily Cole has weird yet pleasing features.
I should find it sexy because I like faces with big eyes, small noses maybe her mouth is too small for her face I can't put my finger on it but there's something odd about her face.
2014/02/15 06:52:10
Subject: 95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
djones520 wrote: Edit: Excuse my typos. Multi-tasking between the nor'easter that's gonna mess with New England tomorrow, some Severe Turbulence of the Southern States, and ferrying a bunch of jets over some oceans. Busy night...
I hope you lied and told them it was balmy. Nothing sucks worse than a drysuit.
2014/02/15 15:28:03
Subject: Re:95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
I should find it sexy because I like faces with big eyes, small noses maybe her mouth is too small for her face I can't put my finger on it but there's something odd about her face.
She seems angry about climate change.
"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
