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How many of these doom and gloom threads we need a month? Hell how many we need per week? News flash gents if you predict the end of the world for the next 7 billion years guess what you'll be right.... Eventually. Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.

Did you read the OP? This is a "GW is fine guys, lay off!" thread.

 Yonan wrote:
Did you read the OP? This is a "GW is fine guys, lay off!" thread.

Hush sweet prince, reading is for those who want to contribute something useful.

I don't think GW is going under. I think they are just going to lose their position as the dominant wargaming company.

 lobbywatson wrote:
How many of these doom and gloom threads we need a month? Hell how many we need per week? News flash gents if you predict the end of the world for the next 7 billion years guess what you'll be right.... Eventually. Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.

Is that hobby purchasing things from Games Workshop by any chance?

 lobbywatson wrote:
How many of these doom and gloom threads we need a month? Hell how many we need per week? News flash gents if you predict the end of the world for the next 7 billion years guess what you'll be right.... Eventually. Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.

Yet another person who hasn't bothered to read the article.

 lobbywatson wrote:
Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.

Ya know, it's totally optional to come in to threads like this. You really don't have to endure it, you can just not come in at all.

If people do not like reading this kind of thread, please do not read this kind of thread.

I personally do not like reading threads about WHFB, as I gave up that game in the mid-1980s. I only read them if someone hits the Moderator alert button.

Hint.

I spent the day painting some more gants and building the models for my first 50pt Steamroller tournament tomorrow. Had lots of fun building Nightmare but 20 Bane Thralls?... phew. Glad that I'll never need to build another unit again (unless I want 30 Bane Thralls?!).

So I'm enjoying my hobby while still saying GW ain't doin' hot and is probably going to tank given their current trajectory; more so than the "past 20 years" or "stopped clock" because we have actual facts that say so this time. And there isn't a "Lord of the Rings" bail out coming down the pipes that we know of this time.

 TheKbob wrote:
I would say not price, but value. The rulebooks go up in price without offering anything significant in terms of actual game worth. The models are being cut in numbers and raised in price; stealth price increases such as the massive Stompa being cheaper than the Imperial Knight. Stupid rules releases like codex pricing on a book containing 1 units with 2 wargear options, etc. etc. etc.

The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.

Value is in the eye of the beholder.

Personally I also feel that GW stuff is now far too expensive for what you get. However there clearly are lots of people who love it, or GW would not be selling £130 million a year.

GW essentially are becoming a boutique wargame company that issues a very extensive range of products for two games at very high prices.

I hesitate to use words such as naive as I have been criticised for it before, however it seems to me that people who are "naive" in the sense that their first and only exposure to tabletop wargames is GW may not see any problem with the pricing or value for money. After all, such people have nothing to compare with GW and GW only seem expensive by comparison with the broad range of wargaming.

Do such people even exist in this digital age?

It may depend on your country's gaming culture, but since a lot of gaming here in Holland happens either in FLGS or clubs, I've yet to meet any 40k player that hasn't at least 'seen' dozens of other systems.

Yet these people still buy GW produce (and often play other systems too).

Does there really exist a market somewhere where GW is the only choice and the internet doesn't exist?

10 years ago maybe, but maybe I'm naive for thinking these naive customers don't exist anymore.

Why would you go on the internet and look for wargames sites if you weren't interested in wargames?

If your first exposure to wargames is GW, because your older brother or schoolfriends play it, or because there is a GW in your town, you might easily just get into it without realising about the wider hobby until later on.

 Shandara wrote:
It may depend on your country's gaming culture, but since a lot of gaming here in Holland happens either in FLGS or clubs, I've yet to meet any 40k player that hasn't at least 'seen' dozens of other systems.

READ: 'Holland' a small, densely-packed country (to my knowledge).

Over across the pond in the expansive U.S.A, there are still many areas where if you don't play the local game you're out of luck. And even some areas where gamers sit alone in the middle of nowhere, with no like-minded wargamers in many miles. There are environments over here in the US where the competitors are virtually unknown, at least I think so.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Why would you go on the internet and look for wargames sites if you weren't interested in wargames?

If your first exposure to wargames is GW, because your older brother or schoolfriends play it, or because there is a GW in your town, you might easily just get into it without realising about the wider hobby until later on.

So if someone becomes interested thanks to their friends/family/etc.. they would go on the internet with their interests (especially since it's cheap and kids don't have infinite money). This isn't the 90s anymore.

I still don't have an issue with the price mainly because it's cheaper to buy a new codex and rule book every 2 years and a new model when I get bored with what I have than it is to start a whole new game system. It doesn't hurt that I have a thriving GW 1/4 mile from my house and all the local FLGS kind of suck for wargaming. Then again I play space wolves who seem to be a fairly stable army. All the guys I bought when I was in 7th grade still work in my army today.

Toofast wrote:
I still don't have an issue with the price mainly because it's cheaper to buy a new codex and rule book every 2 years and a new model when I get bored with what I have than it is to start a whole new game system. It doesn't hurt that I have a thriving GW 1/4 mile from my house and all the local FLGS kind of suck for wargaming. Then again I play space wolves who seem to be a fairly stable army. All the guys I bought when I was in 7th grade still work in my army today.

This is part of the problem, it has actually reached the point where this is no longer the case. The new rulebook ($85) and a new codex ($50) runs you $135. Figure in the "upgrades" they try to force you into at around $150, and you're now at $285 (minimum) just to "keep up". Add in the recent changes with getting DLC or supplements to have something competitive, plus the new models escalating in price quickly, and you'll see its reaching the point where keeping up is fast approaching $450-$500 an army.

• Bolt Action - Rule book and Two Starter Armies runs $112. Most 1,000 point army sets (with a ton of minis and vehicles) run $128. With rules and full new army, you are at $163.

• Dropzone Commader Starter Box with rules and two starter armies is $75. Round out forces to have full armies and you're at about $160.

• Infinity Force Boxes are approx. $50. Rules are free (in entirety), but even then you can buy rulebook (for some added background) for $45. So $95 total. Add in enough miniatures for a "full army" in the game and you're at about $135.

It has in fact reached the point where "keeping up" with the game costs more than just going to a new game itself. This is why you now see so many veterans migrating - it is cheaper to start an entirely new game now. Not to mention, almost every manufacturer above offer fairly low cost "entry sets". Infinity will have one starting at GenCon with Operation: Icestorm. GW, on the other hand, just came out with one and made it in such limited quantities that it is sold out already. So they have little to attract the new players to the hobby.

Every wargame needs new blood to survive. When you look at startup costs for a GW game running $400-$500 dollars (and that is without really having a competitive army where to do that will easily cost more than $1,000 now), whereas for $130-$170 range for fully competitive armies with any other game, 40k is just not attracting much new blood. Obviously for good reason. Just as a final point of reference. For Infinity you can buy the base rulebook, two supplements and fully competitive, 300 point armies for ALL 8 factions for just over $900. With 40k, spending that much, you probably still don't have a single fully competitive 40k army.

So GW now faces this dilemma - for veterans, it is cheaper to switch games than maintain 40k; for newbies, they could get started with several other game systems for under $100 (or a little over that) whereas getting started with GW is going to cost them 5 times than amount. Is 40k really 5 times better than all the other systems on the market? No. In fact, in many cases, 40k is worse than many of the systems on the market today. So, in effect, you are paying 5 times more for a system half as good. Thus why most new blood is going for any system but 40k.

Finally, one last observation. Infinity has already been growing very well year over year. Since the beginning of this year though, it seems to be really going mainstream. It caused Corvus Belli to decide to delay the Archeon Falls supplement so they could write the Third Edition rules to be better translated and more approachable for new blood. They also decided to come up with a "starter set" in Operation: Icestorm and do resculpts for some of the more dated troop types. In my neck of the woods alone, I watched Infinity go from maybe two or three players just before Christmas last year to more than 20 players now (all of them ex-40k BTW). Not to mention, Infinity seems to be in gaming news and blogs everywhere all of the sudden, including taking over as game of choice for some previously well known 40k bloggers. In other words, I believe 40k now has some competition for those who like more of a sci-fi bent in their gaming.

 Shandara wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Why would you go on the internet and look for wargames sites if you weren't interested in wargames?

If your first exposure to wargames is GW, because your older brother or schoolfriends play it, or because there is a GW in your town, you might easily just get into it without realising about the wider hobby until later on.

So if someone becomes interested thanks to their friends/family/etc.. they would go on the internet with their interests (especially since it's cheap and kids don't have infinite money). This isn't the 90s anymore.

Then they probably go to Warseer or Bolter and Chainsword which are specific 40K forums. The kind of place they won't go is The Miniatures Page, where 40K is a very small minority interest compared to historicals.

 Wayshuba wrote:

This is part of the problem, it has actually reached the point where this is no longer the case. The new rulebook ($85) and a new codex ($50) runs you $135. Figure in the "upgrades" they try to force you into at around $150, and you're now at $285 (minimum) just to "keep up". Add in the recent changes with getting DLC or supplements to have something competitive, plus the new models escalating in price quickly, and you'll see its reaching the point where keeping up is fast approaching $450-$500 an army.

• Bolt Action - Rule book and Two Starter Armies runs $112. Most 1,000 point army sets (with a ton of minis and vehicles) run $128. With rules and full new army, you are at $163.

• Dropzone Commader Starter Box with rules and two starter armies is $75. Round out forces to have full armies and you're at about $160.

• Infinity Force Boxes are approx. $50. Rules are free (in entirety), but even then you can buy rulebook (for some added background) for $45. So $95 total. Add in enough miniatures for a "full army" in the game and you're at about $135.

It has in fact reached the point where "keeping up" with the game costs more than just going to a new game itself. This is why you now see so many veterans migrating - it is cheaper to start an entirely new game now. Not to mention, almost every manufacturer above offer fairly low cost "entry sets". Infinity will have one starting at GenCon with Operation: Icestorm. GW, on the other hand, just came out with one and made it in such limited quantities that it is sold out already. So they have little to attract the new players to the hobby.

Every wargame need new blood to survive. When you look at startup costs for a GW game running $400-$500 dollars (and that is without really having a competitive army where to do that will easily cost more than $1,000 now), whereas for $130-$170 range for fully competitive armies with any other game, 40k is just not attracting much new blood. Obviously for good reason. Just as a final point of reference. For Infinity you can buy the base rulebook, two supplements and fully competitive, 300 point armies for ALL 8 factions for just over $900. With 40k, spending that much, you probably still don't have a single fully competitive 40k army.

Wargaming is expensive no matter the system. The prices for X-Wing are ridiculous for what you are actually getting [tiny little painted ship and some cards]. Model by model Infinity are just as expensive as GW, but you need less of them, although admittedly the free rules are a nice touch. The thing driving up GW prices for me are all of the limited edition codexes with very little actually added, which sends a message to GW that we will pay a big premium for very little added value. However if you wargame, your wallet is going to take a bashing.

Back to the OP, ever since I've been on 40k forums [probably around 10 years] there have always been posts predicting GW's financial collapse. I'm sure there are people who can remember even further back. Losing market share, yes, on the verge of collapse, very very unlikely. On the verge of a sale is a different matter as lots of the moves seem to be sort term strategies, designed to get the books looking healthier [7th, which pissed loads of people off but will generate sales, Stormclaw for a financial boose etc].

Toofast wrote:
I still don't have an issue with the price mainly because it's cheaper to buy a new codex and rule book every 2 years and a new model when I get bored with what I have than it is to start a whole new game system. It doesn't hurt that I have a thriving GW 1/4 mile from my house and all the local FLGS kind of suck for wargaming. Then again I play space wolves who seem to be a fairly stable army. All the guys I bought when I was in 7th grade still work in my army today.

I agree with Wayshuba on this point.

I have two armies for 40K, Tau and Tyranids.

I didn't buy the 6th edition codexes although I have the rules. If I want to upgrade to 7th edition, I am faced with a bill of £110 for the core rules and the two codexes. The codexes are out of date. The rules may for all I know be replaced in two years, and I don't want the fluff and art books. The new models like the Riptide which are the key features of the new books are an extra expense.

If I decided to spend that money on X-Wing, I could get the starter set and six or seven add-on boxes for the same money. I would have a complete new game with rules, ready painted models, and two decent sized fleets. Then I might add another ship each month, or a big box for birthday and Christmas.

OTOH if GW would issue the rules only book for say £25 and softback codexes for £15, I could get the new rules, both codexes, and a Flyrant, and be back in the game with my Tyranids. Once playing again, I would probably become enthusiastic about a Riptide, and so on.

 tyrannosaurus wrote:
Wargaming is expensive no matter the system. The prices for X-Wing are ridiculous for what you are actually getting [tiny little painted ship and some cards]. Model by model Infinity are just as expensive as GW, but you need less of them, although admittedly the free rules are a nice touch. The thing driving up GW prices for me are all of the limited edition codexes with very little actually added, which sends a message to GW that we will pay a big premium for very little added value. However if you wargame, your wallet is going to take a bashing.

You're correct here. But there is expensive and then there is being ludicrous. When GW starts putting out bundles for wargame minis that are more than the price of cars, you have gone from expensive to completely looking like idiots. Additionally, most wargaming is not expensive on the initial entry ramp (around the $100 mark) and thus can attract new players. When that initial entry ramp is the $500+ range, you are not going to get the players period as they are going to go for less expensive hobbies like chucking Ferraris off cliffs.

 tyrannosaurus wrote:
Back to the OP, ever since I've been on 40k forums [probably around 10 years] there have always been posts predicting GW's financial collapse. I'm sure there are people who can remember even further back. Losing market share, yes, on the verge of collapse, very very unlikely. On the verge of a sale is a different matter as lots of the moves seem to be sort term strategies, designed to get the books looking healthier [7th, which pissed loads of people off but will generate sales, Stormclaw for a financial boose etc].

Most of that kind of chatter comes from more emotional reactions to changes in the game, pricing, etc. That aside, strictly looking at GW from a business perspective, they have never been in the precarious business situation as they are now. Very precarious. They have just about become a one product line company based around 40k, and if that one product has a mass exodus (which could potentially be happening now), they are done as a company (and they will be done very fast). This is why most 30 year old companies actually diversify product lines, too keep away from this potential cliff of collapse.

 Mysterious Pants wrote:

 Shandara wrote:
It may depend on your country's gaming culture, but since a lot of gaming here in Holland happens either in FLGS or clubs, I've yet to meet any 40k player that hasn't at least 'seen' dozens of other systems.

READ: 'Holland' a small, densely-packed country (to my knowledge).

Over across the pond in the expansive U.S.A, there are still many areas where if you don't play the local game you're out of luck. And even some areas where gamers sit alone in the middle of nowhere, with no like-minded wargamers in many miles. There are environments over here in the US where the competitors are virtually unknown, at least I think so.

That definitely does happen. In the USA since the majority of gaming takes place in game stores, and nearly every game store that has miniatures has a sort of clique that's formed among the regular people there (and sadly there are a few times when said clique is cold and unfriendly to "outsiders"), you are kind of at the mercy of whatever the local clique plays; if you go to a new game store and try to sell them on another game, there's just as much chance that the local clique will react with hostility to some outsider trying to get them to change as having a few catchers-on.

So if the store has a healthy 40k community, then people are going to play 40k and even if they do know about other games, they choose not to play them because everybody else plays 40k, so 40k = guaranteed games, others = you'd have to convince others to play and hope they stick with it. Nobody wants to take the risk of being the one guy who shows up to "minis night" with a game that nobody else is interested in, because then you've just wasted your time and walked away with nothing. Also, if people are devoting time to 40k that's time they can't devote to another game, depending on the level of commitment as speaking from experience it's hard to balance multiple collecting/assembling/painting games at one time.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Wayshuba wrote:
You're correct here. But there is expensive and then there is being ludicrous. When GW starts putting out bundles for wargame minis that are more than the price of cars, you have gone from expensive to completely looking like idiots. Additionally, most wargaming is not expensive on the initial entry ramp (around the $100 mark) and thus can attract new players. When that initial entry ramp is the $500+ range, you are not going to get the players period as they are going to go for less expensive hobbies like chucking Ferraris off cliffs.

This is true as well. I commonly see the price argument, and it's almost never in the right context. I was actually talking with someone at one of the local game stores last night who was looking at starting Warmachine; he played 40k some years ago. We inevitably got to talking about price. I flat out told him that Warmachine does cost comparable to GW, the difference is that it's a much slower pace; you don't have to drop a couple of hundred immediately just to start playing at the entry-level. Figure per figure is generally in the same ballpark, so is unit per unit and some PP units are crazy expensive too (Iron Fang Pikemen @ $85 for 10), but it's offset by the fact that you typically don't want to buy a bunch of the same unit at expensive prices (some exceptions, still IFP ) and every unit you buy represents a significant tactical choice for your army and can sometimes change the entire way you play, where in 40k most units are cannon fodder or for objectives.

As someone also looking at Bolt Action, I think that's the right way for GW to go, even if they charged a bit more for the "brand". A full 1,000 point army should be no more than $150. The rules should be $35. The Codexes don't need to be hardback, and should be small format (A8? I forget the designation) softcover with good paper for $25. Units are a bit trickier since Bolt Action tends to have a generic sprue and then weapons are the extras (not that GW couldn't do that, but they usually don't it doesn't look like), but they should be reasonably priced for a complete, normal-sized unit, none of this 5 for $50 crap. 10 figures for $30 should be right (within reason e.g. Terminators might be 5 for $30 since 5 is the normal size). Tanks should be around $40 but be limited in the rules for normal games. You get the picture. Warlord Games is basically GW done right (not a surprise seeing as it's Rick Priestly), Mantic could be seen similarly, as a Kings of War army of normal to good size (depending on which one) is under $200 and the units are priced correctly for Fantasy.

That's what GW should be doing. They could charge a little more for the brand, but what they're doing is a few notches short of price gouging.

The big problem in general is that GW and 40k hit a lot of really bad points all at once:

* Clunky, unintuitive rules that are confused (skirmish level rules in a regiment-level game, basically; for any historical players could you imagine if you were doing that with say Napoleonics? It would be insane!)
* Little or no balance, with the goalposts constantly changing
* Very expensive for no reason other than just because
* Games take a very long time due to clunky rules

and that's not even getting into the face GW's marketing isn't suited for a tabletop game (e.g. impulse buys) and the fact that they consider their paying customers to be little more than rubes and marks ready to be taken for all they're worth.

WayneTheGame wrote:
but what they're doing is a few notches short of price gouging.

I agree with everything you said in your post except this last statement. GW is well into price gouging, to the point of actually being highway robbery. No plastic 28 mm, none for whatever reason, is worth $30 or more. That almost borders on being criminal for what they charge sometimes.

But, then again, there is no law about taking people to the cleaners with your pricing who do not know any better.

 CalgarsPimpHand wrote:
- you don't really seem to understand 3D printing, the costs and limitations of the various printing technologies available, or how miniatures design/manufacturing companies actually use them; ditto for 3D scanners (3D printing as a manufacturing process is not a threat to high quality mass produced miniatures and won't be for many, many years, if ever)

I know the thread has largely moved on, but I wanted to chip in on this point.

We know that some companies in the industry use computer modeling and high end 3D printing to produce their master models. I have personally dealt with miniatures that were 3D printed at 32mm scale (not my own, I'm strictly hand sculpting). They were masters that were being used to make moulds for conventional casting, not for 3D printed distribution. The quality was definitely there, but (as it as relayed to me at least) the machine it was printed on was extraordinarily expensive itself, and the printing process/materials cost a similar amount as it can cost to have a professional sculptor hand-sculpt a master. And that does not include paying the computer 3D modeler to make the original files, who (I am under the impression) takes roughly as long to create a digital model as it takes the hand sculptor to create a green-stuff master.

So, yeah, digital sculpting & 3D printing; not really/maybe barley competitive as a development* tool at the moment, and nowhere near being useful for digital distribution/personal manufacturing of miniatures yet, and not anytime soon. That tech is years away, and it will be years after that before it reaches the required saturation point for it to be a threat.

*At least when it comes to resin or metal casting - I don't presume to speak about it's use for plastic/injection moulding.

 Wayshuba wrote:

WayneTheGame wrote:
but what they're doing is a few notches short of price gouging.

I agree with everything you said in your post except this last statement. GW is well into price gouging, to the point of actually being highway robbery. No plastic 28 mm, none for whatever reason, is worth $30 or more. That almost borders on being criminal for what they charge sometimes.

But, then again, there is no law about taking people to the cleaners with your pricing who do not know any better.

I'll add that there are tolerable levels of gouging depending upon what the market will bear and I think we've hit that point for GW products.

I dipped a toe into Warmachine and bought the MKII rulebook for about $30, the Cryx faction book (which you don't need, you can play off of the cards alone) for $30, I forget what I paid for the card deck. All of these were digital purchases through the PP apps; the cards in particular are brilliant because they're auto-updated and have all the rules that I need to play that unit. With GW, I need to look at 4 or 5 different entries for each unit because all of the rules are in different locations between the big rulebook and the codex which just slows the game down.

Modelwise; the starters are similar to GW in that you don't get enough points to try an average size game but the faction starters seem to mostly be balanced against each other even at different point levels.

Where WM/H shines is in game scaling. You can literally spend about $100 and have a tournament pt level list. I bought the Cryx starter, a unit of mechnithralls, a stitch surgeon and a solo; at online discount prices that came to a total of about $100 and is a fairly competitive force.

So, for the price of updating to the 7th edition rulebook and one or two new army books with GW, I'm into a new game with a not-terrible army and can just build out from here. It's been said before and it's worth repeating, GW sets the barrier too high for entry. This applies to veterans like myself as much as newbies because you can't recycle rulebooks (unless you have a local club that decides to do so). For me, it's a no-brainer that if I can start a new game with a nearly complete or complete army for the price of a GW rulebook and army book....why go to GW at all? Sacaling is a huge issue with GW as well since they don't have skirmish options that allow people to start small and build up to normal-sized games.

7th killed 40k for me; I'll keep the forces that I currently own (Tau, Grey Knights, Ultras and Dark Eldar) and I might continue to work on my DE over time but that's it. I have no plans to buy another codex or rulebook as the value just isn't there anymore for me; I've got plenty of disposable income but I'm not going to be ripped-off to support GW's failed business model.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 TheKbob wrote:
I would say not price, but value. The rulebooks go up in price without offering anything significant in terms of actual game worth. The models are being cut in numbers and raised in price; stealth price increases such as the massive Stompa being cheaper than the Imperial Knight. Stupid rules releases like codex pricing on a book containing 1 units with 2 wargear options, etc. etc. etc.

The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.

Value is in the eye of the beholder.

However, it is not when you can objectively prove that, without even comparing Games Workshop products to other games, that the value has dropped. I can post again the first case of Dire Avengers and proceed through the entire model line (Finecast, many other plastic anomalies, etc.) and the rules, which shouldn't need a further explanation. All with cited sources.

Value is a measurable thing. Whether or not you then want to pay the cost of said value is an entirely different matter. Simply put, the value of Games Workshop products have measurably and objectively dropped.

... and please people, stop being so rational and using logic and reasoning. We have to be more irrational with a heavy dash of Whinging and Moaning™. I have my first Steamroller today. I play Cryx, so I can appreciate expensive units... two sets of Bane Thralls...

Value clearly has dropped but if enough people don't care, or think it is still good enough, or are too new to know that the value has dropped, it doesn't matter.

I am a good example of a long term player for whom the value for money has fallen below the threshold at which I will participate. I dropped out of buying models three years ago, except I said I would buy an awesome new Tau model if they made one. By the time they made it (Riptide) I had dropped out of buying the codexes, them having doubled in price, and did not buy any books or a new model.

However GW still sold £130 million of product in 2012-13. People are still buying.

What will be interesting to see is what they have sold in 2013-14.

Whoops... there doesn't seem to be anything here.

 Wayshuba wrote:
GW is well into price gouging, to the point of actually being highway robbery.

No they are not. Price gouging by definition involves products that you have to buy and limited access to them. For example, selling bottled water for $100 after a natural disaster contaminates the local water supply. GW can not be price gouging because there is no artificial scarcity or dire need for their products to take advantage of. They're simply charging more for their products than you want to pay.

No plastic 28 mm, none for whatever reason, is worth $30 or more.

That is your personal opinion, not objective truth. If you don't want to pay $30 for a 28mm miniature then don't pay it, just don't complain about how it's "criminal" when there is nothing even close to illegal about GW's price choices.

This has nothing to do with 40k general, and is also a copy of this active thread:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/596875.page

And the answer, there as here, is that people who want to be vindictive about GW not doing things the way they want will always project a perceived failure in their products or business practices as an imminent failure of the business itself.

And it never happens. At which point, like people predicting the second coming of Jesus, the goalposts get moved again, and THIS time it's totally going to happen for real this time. A newly divined prophecy. The heavens themselves predict GW's failure!

And yet the person who writes the articles linked to knows more about business than likely any one of us, and says that things are likely to go bad for GW.

But what does he know, he's probably just a hater...