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 agnosto wrote:
And in the world of giant boneheaded business moves...
GW, why would you not sell more of something so popular as to sell out? Stupid.

It could be because they have to gauge interest far in advance when they decide how many units to produce, based on factors that can change in the time between ordering the production and shipping the boxes. It could be due to limitations in their manufacturing capacity. It could be that they didn't want to take sales away from the new Dark Vengeance box. I can think of any number of reasons why it would happen, and none of them are "GW execs are stupid and hate money."

I think you'll find it a more profitable exercise to try to understand why they make the decisions they do rather than just assume everything comes back to incompetence and/or malevolence. We can safely assume that they're fairly good businessmen/women and that they're genuinely trying to make money and please their customers (if only because happy people spend more money).

And it's somehow impossible to make more of these sets? They are regular kits after all..

Most companies would do their damnedest to fulfill orders not tell a company who ordered 200 sets, "Sorry, you only get 5." (Or whatever they wound up with)

Since they closed down the production facility in Memphis and accelerated the release schedule, they don't have the capacity to make infinite amount of each kit any more. They have to balance their production and try to make sure they make just enough of each kit but don't waste production on too many units that will sit around taking up warehouse/floor space. It's a delicate balance that is impossible to get right every time when you don't have unlimited production/storage capacity and don't do market research to approximate how many of each kit will sell in the first 1-2 weeks of release.

Toofast wrote:
Since they closed down the production facility in Memphis and accelerated the release schedule, they don't have the capacity to make infinite amount of each kit any more. They have to balance their production and try to make sure they make just enough of each kit but don't waste production on too many units that will sit around taking up warehouse/floor space. It's a delicate balance that is impossible to get right every time when you don't have unlimited production/storage capacity and don't do market research to approximate how many of each kit will sell in the first 1-2 weeks of release.

Toofast wrote:
Apparently every CEO in the country follows GW financial reports and posts on dakka.

Apparently all the production managers do, though they don't seem too good at their job.

Toofast wrote:
Apparently every CEO in the country follows GW financial reports and posts on dakka. I don't know how they have time to run their own companies when they're so busy playing armchair CEO for GW.

Basically here you insulting us for having an opinion and calling everyone an Armchair CEO.

I agree that a 9% loss in revenue is scary and needs to be turned around immediately.

Here you agree it's not good but

However, when you close 20%~ of your stores and make 60%~ of your revenue from said stores, it's not all that surprising.

Here you are saying it's ok because of an excuse.

So if we are just armchair CEOs and our opinions don't count, why does your opinion count then? What makes you so special to call us names, but you are not? You just had an opinion as well. Funny you are not calling yourself an Armchair CEO now.

 agnosto wrote:
And it's somehow impossible to make more of these sets? They are regular kits after all..

Most companies would do their damnedest to fulfill orders not tell a company who ordered 200 sets, "Sorry, you only get 5." (Or whatever they wound up with)

I don't know why they don't make more, it might have something to do with the "limited edition" that they stamped on the characters that come in the box or it could be that they think the several-months-long time delay they'd need to get more boxes out wouldn't be worth it and would create a greater backlash. But I honestly don't know, I'm not a businessman and I don't run a production line so I'm not really in a position to give a definitive or even a terribly informed answer. I just don't think it's reasonable to assume stupidity or malice, and I'm offering reasonable-sounding explanations for their actions as an illustration.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Davor wrote:

Basically here you insulting us for having an opinion and calling everyone an Armchair CEO.

I'm sorry you're offended Davor. I don't think the idea is to call anyone names or insult anybody. It's just to say that second-guessing GW's business decisions or assuming they're bad at their jobs is probably not the best starting point for an argument. They have experience as CEOs and business executives, and we don't, so even if they are bad at their jobs and have just been muddling through and getting lucky so far, it's unlikely we'll be the ones to notice or call them on it, much less for the right reasons.

It's just that answering the question "Is GW financially viable long term" with "no, they're all incompetent and they're driving the company into the ground" isn't really a good answer, unless it comes from someone with the expertise and experience to back it up. And I include myself among the people who are not qualified to assess GW's business decisions.

I didn't say it was ok, I said it wasn't surprising. It's still bad because if they were healthier as a company and better at marketing, they wouldn't have needed to close those stores and their revenue would've been at least flat or increased slightly. You're twisting my words and interpreting them in a way that was not intended.

I am not insulted or offended my friend. I should have made it more clear, sorry, but when you say Armchair CEO it seems like you are demeaning other peoples opinions it's hard to take what you say at face value then.

You are correct, most of us except a few people on here are really competent on making actual facts. Thing is, this is how we feel because how we or should I say a lot of people fell like they have been slated by GW.

Thing is, you are correct. GW still made 10 million in profits, so I believe they are not going under anytime soon.

Do I like seeing GW eating crow? Yes. Do I want them to go under? No. Pretty bad when your view of a company or the head of the company you want to see gone and sing "Ding dong the witch is dead"

No disrespect was intended. I didn't actually use the phrase "armchair CEO" but I felt obliged to apologize for the offense on behalf of Toofast, since he's making substantially the same point that I am (though not in the manner I would have done). More broadly, I'm not trying to belittle anyone's intelligence or opinion, and if that was the impression I gave then I hope I have cleared the air somewhat.

The ill feeling GW has engendered among its fanbase doesn't speak well of their community engagement, I will certainly give you that.

Toofast wrote:
They do this to avoid a TSR type situation where they have massive amounts of unsold inventory on hand which they are forced to take a loss on.

Well, except that's not what happened to TSR. TSR took a hit from a sale or return policy with major booksellers being activated. I don't know what GW's policy is with FLGS, but this can easily be prevented by limiting the amount that any store (including their own, just to avoid inventory build up) can have on hand at any one time.

None of which makes leaving money on the table (by making it LE) or taking money out of their market (people spending money they could have given GW on ebay etc to get hold if it, but not just the sale GW lost, the additional erosion of hobby budgets for the scalper's premium).

office_waaagh wrote:
It's just to say that second-guessing GW's business decisions or assuming they're bad at their jobs is probably not the best starting point for an argument. They have experience as CEOs and business executives, and we don't, so even if they are bad at their jobs and have just been muddling through and getting lucky so far, it's unlikely we'll be the ones to notice or call them on it, much less for the right reasons.

It's just that answering the question "Is GW financially viable long term" with "no, they're all incompetent and they're driving the company into the ground" isn't really a good answer, unless it comes from someone with the expertise and experience to back it up. And I include myself among the people who are not qualified to assess GW's business decisions.

It's not the starting point of the argument, it's based on a succession of activities carried out over several years. And there are people in the topic who know what they're talking about.

If GW keeps releasing things like the gaudy Space Viking hover longboat chariot pulled by wolves then yeah, I really think they're going under. Surely there can't be enough people that like that sort of thing to pay off the mould cost, especially if you take into account the people (and their dollars) chased away by seeing that junk.

The reaction to that has actually been mostly positive among the SW players. If someone who only plays eldar and necrons hates it, that doesn't really effect the sales at all. I think the current SW releases have a lot more people excited than any other releases in recent memory. I'm just not sure why. I play SW exclusively and I think the flyer looks like a shipping container with little t Rex wings, murderfang is a CC only dreadnought in an edition where CC is an afterthought and dreads are mediocre at best, with a silly name and even worse fluff (ice claws that never melt, huh?), they've turned our most feared character into Santa clause with an axe, and the LE codexes were overpriced for what you get compared to past LE books.

Toofast wrote:
The reaction to that has actually been mostly positive among the SW players.

*boggle* are we reading the same threads? The recent models have been very polarising, even just among SW players with less SW players being able to rationalise them as they get more insane.

 Yonan wrote:

Toofast wrote:
The reaction to that has actually been mostly positive among the SW players.

*boggle* are we reading the same threads? The recent models have been very polarising, even just among SW players with less SW players being able to rationalise them as they get more insane.

A good bit of the SW players at my FLGS have been chomping at the bit to pick one up, not everyone hates it. Personally? I like it, but I think (and I said the exact same thing about the taurox) that it would look better with a different paint job than the box art. I think something that rugged and borderline industrial looking would benefit from a gritty, rusty and worn looking paintjob.

I actually think the Space Wolf Flyer isn't bad. It's not the best miniature I've seen, but it's not bad. Santa's Sleigh, though...

Addressing the OP:

Yeah. I think they're in a lot of trouble. I think good management would have a chance to turn things around, maybe. I doubt there's any good management in GW's future, though.

On the topic of armchair CEOs and the like there is some merit to it but the guy who wrote these articles was in charge of Aldi during a period of massive growth for them across Europe so his opinion counts for a hell of a lot more than anyone in this thread, and his opinion is that things are looking terrible:
http://masterminis.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/the-future-of-games-workshop-bugman-or.html
http://masterminis.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/the-future-of-games-workshop-part-13.html
http://masterminis.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/the-future-of-games-workshop-part-14.html
http://masterminis.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/the-future-of-games-workshop-part-15.html

So yes, once again I am linking these. He guessed 42% down in profits and he was actually right.

Part 15 wrote:Instead of growing your business and our community you are now talking about survivability of GW.

This is the point we are at, GW is in a death spiral and we aren't talking about growth or long term viability, we are talking about them surviving the next three years.

You can talk all you like about Stormclaw selling out and 7th being the best edition ever and restructuring costs but GW just had a truly terrible year while what evidence we have (Google trends is evidence of nothing) is that the entire market and the majority, if not all, GW's competition are growing.

I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

No, all you really can use is sales data, which we don't have but we know the general trend is that sales are falling.

Toofast wrote:
I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

It looks negative in the warseer thread, looks negative in the BnC thread, even BoLS is pretty negative and the reddit 40k thread on them also lambasted it.

If you think Dakka is negative, you might need to change that to "all 40k discussion forums on the the internet are negative".

Toofast wrote:
I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

Given you have only been a member for six weeks your experience is pretty limited. The "DakkaDakka haets all of GW" argument is old, tired and false.

DakkaDakka is one of the largest GW and 40K focussed forums around. DakkaDakka's increasing complaints in recent years about the low quality of (some, not all) GW kits and rules have coincided with GW's worst financial performance in 10 years.

Correlation does not prove causation of course.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

Toofast wrote:
I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

Given you have only been a member for six weeks your experience is pretty limited. The "DakkaDakka haets all of GW" argument is old, tired and false.

DakkaDakka is one of the largest GW and 40K focussed forums around. DakkaDakka's increasing complaints in recent years about the low quality of (some, not all) GW kits and rules have coincided with GW's worst financial performance in 10 years.

Correlation does not prove causation of course.

If only there was some way for GW to found out if there was a link between customer satisfaction and reduced sales. Bah who am I kidding, we'll buy what they make because that's our hobby, buying their stuff. /facepalm

 Yonan wrote:

Toofast wrote:
I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

It looks negative in the warseer thread, looks negative in the BnC thread, even BoLS is pretty negative and the reddit 40k thread on them also lambasted it.

If you think Dakka is negative, you might need to change that to "all 40k discussion forums on the the internet are negative".

Warseer is a lot more positive than dakka. Sure there are lots of people with a negative opinion, but the difference between warseer and dakka is that over there you could post a positive opinion about a 40k product or gw and not be flamed out of the thread.

KommissarKarl wrote:

 Yonan wrote:

Toofast wrote:
I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

It looks negative in the warseer thread, looks negative in the BnC thread, even BoLS is pretty negative and the reddit 40k thread on them also lambasted it.

If you think Dakka is negative, you might need to change that to "all 40k discussion forums on the the internet are negative".

Warseer is a lot more positive than dakka. Sure there are lots of people with a negative opinion, but the difference between warseer and dakka is that over there you could post a positive opinion about a 40k product or gw and not be flamed out of the thread.

And here you can post a negative one without fear of MODs deleting it.

 jonolikespie wrote:

KommissarKarl wrote:

 Yonan wrote:

Toofast wrote:
I was speaking more about local SW players and those in the SW facebook groups I'm in. I have definitely seen how much the dakka community hates the new releases, but from my limited experience, dakka hates anything GW makes. You can't really use this forum as a metric for reception of new releases or GW wouldn't have released a "good" kit in the last 5 years.

It looks negative in the warseer thread, looks negative in the BnC thread, even BoLS is pretty negative and the reddit 40k thread on them also lambasted it.

If you think Dakka is negative, you might need to change that to "all 40k discussion forums on the the internet are negative".

Warseer is a lot more positive than dakka. Sure there are lots of people with a negative opinion, but the difference between warseer and dakka is that over there you could post a positive opinion about a 40k product or gw and not be flamed out of the thread.

And here you can post a negative one without fear of MODs deleting it.

You can do that on warseer too. It's just that over there, relentlessly driving a thread off-topic by bashing gw is considered spam. Check out the GW annual report thread. The first page is full of people bashing and laughing at GW.

KommissarKarl wrote:
dakka... flamed out of the thread.

[citation needed]

 Yonan wrote:

KommissarKarl wrote:
dakka... flamed out of the thread.

[citation needed]

I have posted how many threads have been closed by GW supporters vs critcs. 5-0.

Do you think Kirbys "yes men" recruiting philosophy trickles down to (some of) the players? Some seem to say yes no matter what happens. If it does, maybe they'll keep taking the price increases from behind while Kirby laughs all the way to the bank to don his golden parachute and all will be well.

KommissarKarl wrote:
Warseer is a lot more positive than dakka.

A lot more positive? You've never used that scrollbar down to "GW General Discussion", right?

Spend some time there, and Dakka will just look like a shining beacon of positive feelings toward GW.

office_waaagh wrote:

 agnosto wrote:
And it's somehow impossible to make more of these sets? They are regular kits after all..

Most companies would do their damnedest to fulfill orders not tell a company who ordered 200 sets, "Sorry, you only get 5." (Or whatever they wound up with)

I don't know why they don't make more, it might have something to do with the "limited edition" that they stamped on the characters that come in the box or it could be that they think the several-months-long time delay they'd need to get more boxes out wouldn't be worth it and would create a greater backlash. But I honestly don't know, I'm not a businessman and I don't run a production line so I'm not really in a position to give a definitive or even a terribly informed answer. I just don't think it's reasonable to assume stupidity or malice, and I'm offering reasonable-sounding explanations for their actions as an illustration.

Labeling something "limited edition" is all well and good and so is actually making a limited run of it. The problem here is that they made it so "limited" as to only satisfy a fraction of demand. This is what most people would call "a missed opportunity". It also illustrates what GW management refuses to see; a reasonable price for products bundled together will sell, and sell in volumes high enough to offset any loss of margin due to the bundle price. Just use the Discount Games example, the pre-ordered 200 copies and received "less than 10". Most companies use pre-orders as a way to help gauge demand and to do some really cheap market research, I know it's an evil phrase at GW corporate but thriving businesses use it every day. What GW calls a "pre-order" is barely that since there's only a week from pre-order to delivery. This means that GW has already pre-determined volumes of product based upon some arcane hand-waving (for all we know). Ideally, you would lead your pre-orders out far enough that you'd be able to supply enough to meet initial demand and, in the case of a limited run, stop there. You can't do that unless you ask people how many they want and then deliver it.

GW has lost out because of their practices on several fronts. They lost potential sales, they further damaged their reputation with sell-through partners and they missed the opportunity to gauge actual demand for their product. In the business world, this is generally bad.

I think part of this attitude comes from corporate management's view that GW is the Apple of table-top gaming (Kirby's continued references to Steve Jobs and Apple in preambles). The difference here is that Apple has a much MUCH larger market presence than GW could ever dream of; there are more people interested in and buying Apple products because it's not a niche market. When you self-admit that you are a part of a niche market, you can't operate your business like Apple, you have to increase appeal for your product as broadly as possible not assume people will buy it or "If we build it, they will buy it". Alan Merrett said in a court of law, under oath, that GW believes that the hobby of GW's customers is "buying GW products." The problem with this attitude is that people change their hobbies all the time and if there's nothing stronger keeping people around than buying your stuff, when you actively make it impossible for them to do just that.

Sorry for the wall of text.

Yonan wrote:If GW keeps releasing things like the gaudy Space Viking hover longboat chariot pulled by wolves then yeah, I really think they're going under.

Hhhhhahaha! Oh man. I can imagine rhinos churning through the mud, (just about) imagine stormfangs hurtling through the air, but I imagine a couple of wolves with legs flailing and tongues lolling, trying to haul this flying viking bathtub but falling far behind the (almost) proper vehicles and transports, and I crack up. The one thing it does leave far behind, IMO, is the 'drive me closer' meme.

I'm sorry. I know we're supposed to realise that these things are subjective, and live and let live and all that junk; but if you look at this thing, get enthused by it, think it's a sign that GW is going in a good direction, and not a sign that 40K is aimed at children, then I have to think that something's gone very, very wrong.

On a slightly more serious note, I've been reading Wayshuba's descriptions of death spirals and how they apply to GW, for a while. Is this not an example of a desperate, rushed release, in that context?

jonolikespie wrote:And here you can post a negative one without fear of MODs deleting it.

Ay-men.