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Backfire wrote:

 Retrogamer0001 wrote:
Companies that operate at a loss do tend to go out of business rather quickly, especially when share values drop significantly over consecutive years...

GW does not operate at loss. Share value has no effect on bankruptcy: share value might drop in expectation of a bankruptcy. GW share, despite dropping after poor January report, is still pretty high, roughly at same it was in 2012. This tells us that the investors, while having lost some optimism about company's future financial performance, do not expect it go bankrupt anytime soon.

Even if Wayshuba is correct in his gloomy prediction and GW posts a loss next year, that STILL does not drive the company anywhere close to bankruptcy. Why? Because GW has cash, and even with a loss they still would have money on hand and don't have to take on debt to maintain their operation. A company which has both cash reserves and no debt is not that easy to drive under. Look at Nokia: mismanaged horribly for years, revenue shrank year after year, constantly posting a loss, share price plummeting to tiny fraction of former glory. Yet they were not actually anywhere close to bankruptcy, because the company had built up so strong financial position in its good years.

What COULD happen to GW in 2 years is that their revenue shrinks so bad, that investors lose confidence that the company could be turned around, shares plummet and somebody buys the company (which atm, is much too expensive). However, that is not the same as actual bankruptcy.

Just FYI, GW does not have a lot of cash on hand for a company with their tenure of existence - only £17.5m. That is absolutely terrible for a thirty year old company. They have chosen to pay out an enormous amount of cash in dividends rather than maintain that cash on hand. See my example above for just how fast that cash can be eaten up. A 20% percent or more decline and all that cash is almost bye-bye and does not even give them enough to survive the twelve months after that. So, the possibility of bankruptcy in two years is actually extremely high following the trending data. Might even be as high as 71%.

Edit: For a quick follow on where I come up with this with the growth numbers. 2012 +6%, 2013+3% (down 3), 2014 -8% (down 11 or 4x), 2015 est. -24% (down 8x last growth year of 2013 and 3x prior year). Trend line continues down similar drop rate, not flat revenue decline. At 24%, GW is filing bankruptcy.

The loss of money isnt as important as the loss of players. (Although i wouldnt surprised at all if the 4mil website designation was so high because they wanted to make and excuse for a drop off in online purchasing)

This is GW's MO really...

Warhammer online: made more than enough money to survive... couldnt keep players in game due to bugs/terrible patches/no improvement of rules. Axed when player pool dwindled to low.

Dawn of war (all of them): made more than enough money to survive... couldnt keep players interested due to bugs/terrible patches/no improvement of rules. Axed when player pool dwindled to low.

Specialist games (BFG, EPIC, necromunda, inquisitor, blood bowl, etc: made more than enough money to survive... couldnt keep players in game due to bugs/terrible patches/no improvement of rules. Axed when player pool dwindled to low.

Hobbit: made more than enough money to survive... couldnt keep players in game due to bugs/terrible patches/no improvement of rules. Axed when player pool dwindled to low.

warhammer fantasy: made more than enough money to survive... couldnt keep players in game due to bugs/terrible patches/no improvement of rules. soon to be axed when player pool dwindles to low.

The plain and simple fact is that whereas for the past 10-20 years the people playing the game were the primary advertisers... now most of us dont even try to sell the game to fresh blood.

this game is like golf without any of the positive stereotypes: expensive, time consuming, most of peoples enjoyment is derived from thinking about it rather than actually experiencing it. Wargaming in general is viewed as childish and archaic, and generally a negative light by most of the modern world, and thats a hard stigma to overcome just to get abused fiscally by the same company that adult society mocks you for enjoying.

EDIT:
1. i know that the vidja games arnt necessarily in GW's control... but they were the owners of the IP. And greenlit the developers who were to blame
2. most of the specialist games were fairly solid, holistically.

Backfire wrote:

 Boggy Man wrote:

Quite right, if anything the "71% chance of bankruptcy in 2 years prediction" is optimistic, as it is looking at statistics and perhaps a rough rundown.

I'm sorry, it is complete fantasy that GW will go bankrupt in 2 years. There is zero chance for it. Zero. ...

They're not my numbers, they're from Google Finance's professional analytical matrix. Professional investors aren't exactly known for their whimsical flights of fancy.

Backfire wrote:
GW does not operate at loss. Share value has no effect on bankruptcy: share value might drop in expectation of a bankruptcy. GW share, despite dropping after poor January report, is still pretty high, roughly at same it was in 2012. This tells us that the investors, while having lost some optimism about company's future financial performance, do not expect it go bankrupt anytime soon...

A closer reading of their balance sheet shows you that they've been inflating their profit margin by cutting operations to the bone despite sales collapsing. Why does that matter?
To put it in layman's terms;
You can pay your mortgage by selling your body for sex. As long as someone's paying for what you're doing you'll be all set.
You can pay your mortgage by selling your body for parts. This works precisely for as long as it takes you to run out of kidneys.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I agree. One of the key selling points of 40K and WHFB is how widely it is played.

Once that goes into reverse you get a situation where one of the key points is how many people are abandoning it for other games, and persuading potential new recruits to follow suit.

IDK if GW are at that point now, but I believe that they are close.

I believe they would be at that point much after than previously thought chief.
In a close group of friends were there were 6 die hard fans it took two to become disenchanted with GW,
Out of the other four two were only casual to begin with and the other two found gaming only together tedious and looking for a new group diffuicult.

Anecdotally speaking of course, but the story is repeated on forums and in the different groups that I know personally within the different clubs/ stores, its even happening with my group now.
In short, I've found it only takes about half the group to become disenchanted before the others find it unplayable,
So the decline in the older population at least will become rapid once the player base becomes so-so.
I believe although this point is defined locally, we've begun to see that this last financial year. Both statistically and anecdotally.

 Wayshuba wrote:

Backfire wrote:

 Retrogamer0001 wrote:
Companies that operate at a loss do tend to go out of business rather quickly, especially when share values drop significantly over consecutive years...

GW does not operate at loss. Share value has no effect on bankruptcy: share value might drop in expectation of a bankruptcy. GW share, despite dropping after poor January report, is still pretty high, roughly at same it was in 2012. This tells us that the investors, while having lost some optimism about company's future financial performance, do not expect it go bankrupt anytime soon.

Even if Wayshuba is correct in his gloomy prediction and GW posts a loss next year, that STILL does not drive the company anywhere close to bankruptcy. Why? Because GW has cash, and even with a loss they still would have money on hand and don't have to take on debt to maintain their operation. A company which has both cash reserves and no debt is not that easy to drive under. Look at Nokia: mismanaged horribly for years, revenue shrank year after year, constantly posting a loss, share price plummeting to tiny fraction of former glory. Yet they were not actually anywhere close to bankruptcy, because the company had built up so strong financial position in its good years.

What COULD happen to GW in 2 years is that their revenue shrinks so bad, that investors lose confidence that the company could be turned around, shares plummet and somebody buys the company (which atm, is much too expensive). However, that is not the same as actual bankruptcy.

Just FYI, GW does not have a lot of cash on hand for a company with their tenure of existence - only £17.5m. That is absolutely terrible for a thirty year old company. They have chosen to pay out an enormous amount of cash in dividends rather than maintain that cash on hand. See my example above for just how fast that cash can be eaten up. A 20% percent or more decline and all that cash is almost bye-bye and does not even give them enough to survive the twelve months after that. So, the possibility of bankruptcy in two years is actually extremely high following the trending data. Might even be as high as 71%.

Edit: For a quick follow on where I come up with this with the growth numbers. 2012 +6%, 2013+3% (down 3), 2014 -8% (down 11 or 4x), 2015 est. -24% (down 8x last growth year of 2013 and 3x prior year). Trend line continues down similar drop rate, not flat revenue decline. At 24%, GW is filing bankruptcy.

Cash on hand doesn't mean you're successful. The fact they don't have any debt is huge is a better indication as to how well they operate. They grew slowly and not through debt. From what I can tell, they seem to be running leaner and have few production issues. Their operations in the second half of the year are trending better than the first half. Who knows, maybe they will show a turn around.

They have a couple of issues with stuff not being available day 1 but it's nothing like the PP issue back in 2010 when you couldn't order half of their model range unless it was a new release.

boyd wrote:


Cash on hand doesn't mean you're successful. The fact they don't have any debt is huge is a better indication as to how well they operate. They grew slowly and not through debt. From what I can tell, they seem to be running leaner and have few production issues. Nothing like the PP issue back in 2010 when you couldn't order half of their model range unless it was a new release.

A problem which GW (indirectly) caused. Nothing like sending your customers in droves to one of your biggest competitors by dictating where they can buy their products from.

"Sorry guv, you're from Australia. Can't buy our products from Wayland..."

 Wayshuba wrote:

Debt is a fallacy about bankruptcy. Wang Computer, for example, filed for bankruptcy protection on August 18, 1992 and had zero bank debt when they did so. But, like any business, they still had other obligations. GW has a series of costs required to operate the business - currently sitting at around £108m. If revenue declines much faster than costs can be cut, you can quickly end up in trouble if you cannot cut costs fast enough, nor recognize savings for 30 months after obtaining "exceptional" costs.

It's a fallacy to think that GW can not cut costs further if it absolutely requires to. Sure enough, they probably can't cut costs much anymore if they want to maintain their current level of production. However, if the demand drops as dramatically as you suppose, then they can easily simply cut from production. After all, if there is no demand, there is no need to produce that much either. As I recall, Nottingham facility is running in three shifts, so you cut the night shift. Or cut design costs. Give up the plans for Dreadflee...ok, that joke is dead. Say, give up the plans for Mordheim mk2 or whatever they might be drafting up.

Again, there does not seem to be much evidence about such a collapse of sales. Kirby reported that the last quarter was better than the third one (although it better be with the huge website promotion campaign and first weeks of 7th edition), so it does not seem they're in a middle of quick collapse.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Boggy Man wrote:

Backfire wrote:

 Boggy Man wrote:

Quite right, if anything the "71% chance of bankruptcy in 2 years prediction" is optimistic, as it is looking at statistics and perhaps a rough rundown.

I'm sorry, it is complete fantasy that GW will go bankrupt in 2 years. There is zero chance for it. Zero. ...

They're not my numbers, they're from Google Finance's professional analytical matrix. Professional investors aren't exactly known for their whimsical flights of fancy.

So, you are they more believable than the professional investors who buy and hold GW stock for living and who presumably have acquinted themselves with company's financial shape.

 Inquisitor Bob wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I agree. One of the key selling points of 40K and WHFB is how widely it is played.

Once that goes into reverse you get a situation where one of the key points is how many people are abandoning it for other games, and persuading potential new recruits to follow suit.

IDK if GW are at that point now, but I believe that they are close.

I believe they would be at that point much after than previously thought chief.
In a close group of friends were there were 6 die hard fans it took two to become disenchanted with GW,
Out of the other four two were only casual to begin with and the other two found gaming only together tedious and looking for a new group diffuicult.

Anecdotally speaking of course, but the story is repeated on forums and in the different groups that I know personally within the different clubs/ stores, its even happening with my group now.
In short, I've found it only takes about half the group to become disenchanted before the others find it unplayable,
So the decline in the older population at least will become rapid once the player base becomes so-so.
I believe although this point is defined locally, we've begun to see that this last financial year. Both statistically and anecdotally.

Well that's the thing; anecdotes aren't evidence all by their lonesome, but a few hundred make for a damn insightful market study. It's very weird, I got into the game seriously about 2 years ago. We went from 2 players to 6 players to 12 players, to 1 or 2 this past month. The people who got me into the game (and warmed me up to it despite my problems) just abandoned it. 7th came in without much drama, but it seemed to be the final straw for the diehards. (Even people who didn't worry about daemon spawning or titan first strikes told me the shifting objectives killed the whole game for them.)


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Backfire wrote:

So, you are they more believable than the professional investors who buy and hold GW stock for living and who presumably have acquinted themselves with company's financial shape.

Am I? Not particularly. Is the opinion of professional analysts more believable than people betting on GW?
Abso-fething-lutely.
Enron had investors right up till the end. As noted previously, most private investors abandoned the stock causing its crash months ago. The current investors are large firms who often divest a small fraction of funds in high risk stock, as the turn around for such often negates and surpasses the funds lost on failed companies. (Junk bonds for example are sort of the instant scratch tickets of the investment world.)
As you are fond of noting, the stock situation really doesn't prove anything. Look at the balance sheet, then read between the lines.

 Boggy Man wrote:

Backfire wrote:

So, you are they more believable than the professional investors who buy and hold GW stock for living and who presumably have acquinted themselves with company's financial shape.

Am I? Not particularly. Is the opinion of professional analysts more believable than people betting on GW?
Abso-fething-lutely.
Enron had investors right up till the end. As noted previously, most private investors abandoned the stock causing its crash months ago. The current investors are large firms who often divest a small fraction of funds in high risk stock, as the turn around for such often negates and surpasses the funds lost on failed companies. (Junk bonds for example are sort of the instant scratch tickets of the investment world.)
As you are fond of noting, the stock situation really doesn't prove anything. Look at the balance sheet, then read between the lines.

Macroaxis prediction doesn't come from "professional analyst": it comes from a formula to where some basic financial data is entered and then it calculates "probability of bankruptcy", often with quite hilariously high results. Last year it predicted that Sony will go bankrupt with 79% chance.

Enron was engaged with various criminal accounting practices (and not only accounting...). Investors believed in it because they were lied about company's financial state. Of course it cannot be completely ruled out with GW, but seems unlikely.

 Grimtuff wrote:

boyd wrote:


Cash on hand doesn't mean you're successful. The fact they don't have any debt is huge is a better indication as to how well they operate. They grew slowly and not through debt. From what I can tell, they seem to be running leaner and have few production issues. Nothing like the PP issue back in 2010 when you couldn't order half of their model range unless it was a new release.

A problem which GW (indirectly) caused. Nothing like sending your customers in droves to one of your biggest competitors by dictating where they can buy their products from.

"Sorry guv, you're from Australia. Can't buy our products from Wayland..."

Ahh, I don't seem to have the same problem the Australians have. My issue with PP was I got out of GW for a year and stated playing Hordes. After getting into that game, PP had troubles with their supply chain and I couldn't order anything that wasn't a new release from my FLGS or directly from PP's website. As a result, I quit playing the game, cancelled my orders with PP and went back to GW. The only benefit was 10 months later I got my entire order from PP. One max sized beast handler unit. Can't play skorne well without them. With GW, hey seem to be able to back fill their product rather quickly. The most I've waited was an extra 3 days for something and they always sent me an "I'm sorry for the delay gift" that goes with my purchase.

boyd wrote:

 Grimtuff wrote:

boyd wrote:


Cash on hand doesn't mean you're successful. The fact they don't have any debt is huge is a better indication as to how well they operate. They grew slowly and not through debt. From what I can tell, they seem to be running leaner and have few production issues. Nothing like the PP issue back in 2010 when you couldn't order half of their model range unless it was a new release.

A problem which GW (indirectly) caused. Nothing like sending your customers in droves to one of your biggest competitors by dictating where they can buy their products from.

"Sorry guv, you're from Australia. Can't buy our products from Wayland..."

Ahh, I don't seem to have the same problem the Australians have. My issue with PP was I got out of GW for a year and stated playing Hordes. After getting into that game, PP had troubles with their supply chain and I couldn't order anything that wasn't a new release from my FLGS or directly from PP's website. As a result, I quit playing the game, cancelled my orders with PP and went back to GW. The only benefit was 10 months later I got my entire order from PP. One max sized beast handler unit. Can't play skorne well without them. With GW, hey seem to be able to back fill their product rather quickly. The most I've waited was an extra 3 days for something and they always sent me an "I'm sorry for the delay gift" that goes with my purchase.

No, you missed his point. He was point out you couldn't get PP product becouse Australians where buying them all at that time. Why becouse GW priced them out then stopped them ordering over sea for cheaper and a bunch went to PP games instead. Buying basical all of PP stock at the time.

It not that they under produced stock, it that they honestly had no idea GW would just hand them so many new player for their games.

Noir wrote:

boyd wrote:

 Grimtuff wrote:

boyd wrote:


Cash on hand doesn't mean you're successful. The fact they don't have any debt is huge is a better indication as to how well they operate. They grew slowly and not through debt. From what I can tell, they seem to be running leaner and have few production issues. Nothing like the PP issue back in 2010 when you couldn't order half of their model range unless it was a new release.

A problem which GW (indirectly) caused. Nothing like sending your customers in droves to one of your biggest competitors by dictating where they can buy their products from.

"Sorry guv, you're from Australia. Can't buy our products from Wayland..."

Ahh, I don't seem to have the same problem the Australians have. My issue with PP was I got out of GW for a year and stated playing Hordes. After getting into that game, PP had troubles with their supply chain and I couldn't order anything that wasn't a new release from my FLGS or directly from PP's website. As a result, I quit playing the game, cancelled my orders with PP and went back to GW. The only benefit was 10 months later I got my entire order from PP. One max sized beast handler unit. Can't play skorne well without them. With GW, hey seem to be able to back fill their product rather quickly. The most I've waited was an extra 3 days for something and they always sent me an "I'm sorry for the delay gift" that goes with my purchase.

No, you missed his point. He was point out you couldn't get PP product becouse Australians where buying them all at that time. Why becouse GW priced them out and a bunch went to PP games at the same time.

Oh, their forums said they were retooling and had machines breaking down. They didn't indicate anything about Australians buying all of their products for 10 months. Heck, the feedback I got from PP reiterated they were in the process of revamping their production which coincided with what their forums said. Then I'm sorry but PP is a much much smaller company than GW because if people from Australia can suck all of their product they make then hey really had no supply chain to begin with. If my order was on back order for 10 months because that's how long it took to cast every order in front of me, they must have very little equipment or it was in horrible shape and nobody was willing to work with them.

The simplest way to really get to the point on bankruptcy is this:

Imagine a 2yr contract, starting Aug 1, 2014 and ending Aug 1, 2016. If GW goes bankrupt in that time, you owe $1,000 to whomever bought it from you.

How much would you charge to sell that if I wanted to buy it from you? Backfire?

Edit: assume an enforceable legal contract where you actually have to pay.

Ugh.

Enough with the orange text already!

You might actually have something interesting and/or informative to say, but I find myself skipping right past your posts.

Noir wrote:

boyd wrote:

 Grimtuff wrote:

boyd wrote:


Cash on hand doesn't mean you're successful. The fact they don't have any debt is huge is a better indication as to how well they operate. They grew slowly and not through debt. From what I can tell, they seem to be running leaner and have few production issues. Nothing like the PP issue back in 2010 when you couldn't order half of their model range unless it was a new release.

A problem which GW (indirectly) caused. Nothing like sending your customers in droves to one of your biggest competitors by dictating where they can buy their products from.

"Sorry guv, you're from Australia. Can't buy our products from Wayland..."

Ahh, I don't seem to have the same problem the Australians have. My issue with PP was I got out of GW for a year and stated playing Hordes. After getting into that game, PP had troubles with their supply chain and I couldn't order anything that wasn't a new release from my FLGS or directly from PP's website. As a result, I quit playing the game, cancelled my orders with PP and went back to GW. The only benefit was 10 months later I got my entire order from PP. One max sized beast handler unit. Can't play skorne well without them. With GW, hey seem to be able to back fill their product rather quickly. The most I've waited was an extra 3 days for something and they always sent me an "I'm sorry for the delay gift" that goes with my purchase.

No, you missed his point. He was point out you couldn't get PP product becouse Australians where buying them all at that time. Why becouse GW priced them out then stopped them ordering over sea for cheaper and a bunch went to PP games instead. Buying basical all of PP stock at the time.

It not that they under produced stock, it that they honestly had no idea GW would just hand them so many new player for their games.

Finecast played a huge part too. It was all part of GW's "summer of terror" in 2011 IIRC.

 Alpharius wrote:
Ugh.

Enough with the orange text already!

You might actually have something interesting and/or informative to say, but I find myself skipping right past your posts.

On the flip side, I find the orange text useful as it allows me to quickly identify a post that is usually worth reading. Otherwise I have to scan for usernames or avatars

 Alpharius wrote:
Ugh.

Enough with the orange text already!

You might actually have something interesting and/or informative to say, but I find myself skipping right past your posts.

Reinholt has a good reason for using orange. He used it all the time over at Warseer, it makes his post unique I feel and he always has a good contribution to the discussion.


Hey Rienholt, good to see you here!

Nevertheless it is technically breaking forum rules, and is one of my pet hates. I started writing a post similar to Alph's a couple of days ago, but changed my mind as he is a new user with something intelligent to say and I didn't want to risk scaring him off!

 Azreal13 wrote:
Nevertheless it is technically breaking forum rules, and is one of my pet hates. I started writing a post similar to Alph's a couple of days ago, but changed my mind as he is a new user with something intelligent to say and I didn't want to risk scaring him off!

Az, with the utmost respect I would like to point out to you that it says DCM under your name, not MOD.

You are helpful in your reminders, but it isn't your job.

BTW, I got my markups to work right, thanks!

Its still well within the right of any forum member to point out when any other member is in violation of the rules.

The less work the mods do, the better the community is. A friendly reminder from a friendly user beats a red text edit and warning any day.

xraytango wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
Nevertheless it is technically breaking forum rules, and is one of my pet hates. I started writing a post similar to Alph's a couple of days ago, but changed my mind as he is a new user with something intelligent to say and I didn't want to risk scaring him off!

Az, with the utmost respect I would like to point out to you that it says DCM under your name, not MOD.

You are helpful in your reminders, but it isn't your job.

BTW, I got my markups to work right, thanks!

With similar respect, I wasn't moderating, I was merely stating a fact (it's against forum rules) and an opinion (I don't like it, I find it distracting)

EDIT
You mean spoiler tags etc? That's great, although be careful with he IMG tags, I get more red text and post deletes through ,issues of those than anything!

How about a little more life, and a little less enslavement?

This my friends is Reinholt, this is how he does things. He adds value to the discussion and posts in orange for his own reasons, accept it, benefit from it, and move on.

Don't be too impressed by the technicalities of your forum, they are insignificant when compared to the power of the force?

 Grimtuff wrote:


Finecast played a huge part too. It was all part of GW's "summer of terror" in 2011 IIRC.

This was one of the biggest reasons I gave it all up; at least, this is where my separation with GW really started. I know it may seem petty to many, but I was being sold an inferior product at an increased price and, when there were problems, instead of acknowledging them, they tried to sell me patch-up kits for the new model I might have just purchased. Talk about pissing on your leg and telling you it's raining.

They would have won back a lot of my loyalty had they simply acknowledged the fault in their product, told us that they were working toward a plastic solution. Instead, it was more of the "nothing to see here" mentality which made me feel like they couldn't care less about me as a customer. That was the first time in my long history with GW that I felt like nothing more than dollar signs to them.

xraytango wrote:
How about a little more life, and a little less enslavement?

This my friends is Reinholt, this is how he does things. He adds value to the discussion and posts in orange for his own reasons, accept it, benefit from it, and move on.

Don't be too impressed by the technicalities of your forum, they are insignificant when compared to the power of the force?

I dare say he could get special dispensation if his reasons are good, he'd probably need to prostrate himself before The Emperor Yakface or one of his cronies henchmen moderators though...

Well played sir, well played

Ok guys, let's ease up on the OT stuff. To the thread in general, if you think someone is breaking rules, just hit the triangle and let the mods sort it out, rather than dragging a thread off topic. Thanks.

Okay, getting back on topic....

I think that two years may be too pessimistic - GW can slow the rate of decay, even if they lack the means to halt it.

I agree that GW may not be able to lower the current prices without ticking off the folks that bought despite the prices (mentioned on another thread) - but that they can add value for money without lowering prices. Putting the variants for the tanks into the boxes is a good start - but being GW they would then go and add to the price, which would miss the point!

There are some exceptions - the Dire Avengers at five for the same price as the box of ten.... Dire avengers just aren't that good.... Some prices need to come down.

But at this point they need to do a lot of fence mending. Kirby and the Kronies have ticked off a large percentage of their fanbase, which is a bad idea when the entirety of your advertising is word of mouth from that same fanbase.

They really need to start advertising.

And they really need to work on the cost of entry into the hobby.

Right now Deadzone is doing very well - good rules, and a low entry point into the game.

I know several people that have more than one force each.

Entry is less than 50 quid - whether two people buy and share the starter box or get a faction starter and booster each.

WH40K... has a much higher entry point - and GW needs to lower it if they want to stay competitive.

I think that GW will stave off the final collapse for more than two years... but I still see that collapse happening.

They need to start thinking about how to mend fences and fix the broken relationship with their customers.

The Auld Grump

Yeah, i have been saying GW is playing it dumb for a while, but 2 years seems a rather steep curve to me. They do have the money to stave off disaster for a while. Should things not change, i think we are witnessing the beginning of the end, but i am think in terms of a decade, not a couple of years.

2 years seems steep to me too, but to be honest, I thought GW would do way better this half than they did. I was expecting Knights and the new edition and all that DLC to really improve their sales and profits. I thought unbound would spur purchases. And it did stem the trend some what, but not enough, not enough by half.

So I dunno. I Wayshuba's numbers are not outside the bounds of possibility if play communities are collapsing the way I think they are. Perhaps GW can combat it by closing their retail arm in the states or something- but that's going to dip revenue too. The gamble is whether that would save them more money than it lost them.

The flip side of that is all the things they need to do to fix the game and make it more attractive. My worry there is, they had the chance to do that in 7th edition, and they totally fluffed it. It seems like they don't have the vision or the talent any more to pull off a dramatic turn around of the type they need to improve their systems. It's my subjective opinions that recent releases have been bloated trash that I will not pay that money for, and the most recent release (space wolves, with Murderfang of the Murder-rage and Murderclaws) doesn't convince me otherwise.

It's a shame to be labelled as a hater for these opinions. I've been into GW since I was 12, and I'm 29 now. I've got much more disposable income than I ever have in my life, and I'm still a diehard nerd. But GW aren't selling much that I want to buy at the prices they're charging, and my favourite line that they produce (LOTR) has been hit with the steepest and most unsustainable price rises of all.
I hope they can turn it around, but I'm not optimistic.

And for any who think we're cheerleading GW's demise- I got 3 cases of GW miniatures and a pile of unassembled gak that will tank in value if the company goes belly up, so I got a really strong reason to want them to succeed. I think they're just incompetent though, and while heckling them for that is satisfying, I'd much rather be praising them.

Hell, if GW would turn their retail arm in the US into a general gaming store chain....

Carry non-GW products, promote gaming, and regularize the supply chain!

Let us look at Paizo (admittedly, just an online retailer) - they produce one of the most popular RPGs around (maybe second to 5e D&D, maybe not) - but they carry everyone, including their largest competitor!

Heck, in one of their adventure path scenarios they even give a plug for a competing product over one of their own!

And as a game publisher they have built their reputation around open playtests and listening to their customers. (Heck, on their forums I have had questions answered by the CEO of the company! (Hi Lisa!))

The net result is brand loyalty that GW has not seen in years.

The odds of this happening... Hell will freeze solid first....

The Auld Grump