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Experiment 626 wrote:

And Mount Rainier to blow its top...

And we're still waiting this whole "Global Warming is going to Kill US ALL!!!!" non-sense that the eco nutters have been preaching endlessly since 2000 or so...

According to the geology course I just took (and we can stare at Rainier any day that's clear enough), Rainier isn't really "overdue". At least not for the 1 in 10,000 year event.

And where I live, I'm good on both the Tacoma Fault for quakes, and it's high enough that I'm nowhere really close to the Lahar "danger zone" for when Rainier goes up.


Anyhow, all these volcanoes that are due, or coming up due, are actually really good for us, on the "global warming" front because of all the crap they put out has a long term cooling effect (obviously, there's a major drop in temperatures short term because ash is blocking everything out)

As for Seattle, and the Seattle fault... I don't really have much sympathy for whatever happens in the down town area, because even after all the information about tectonics and fault shapes and everything that goes with quakes that's been put out in the last 100 or so years, they STILL build really tall crap directly on top of the fault


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Ohh.... and we all know that the Seattle quake will be caused by ISIS (there, not we're on topic!!!)

 Ensis Ferrae wrote:


You didn't have the system in place, like today where Lettuce is grown mostly in California and Arizona, and then shipped across the entire country.

Yes, it was. How do you think New York got fresh vegetables in winter in the old days? (See above 1920 produce crate label)





Where it was more limited was outside major metropolitan areas or someplace with a major train depot.. New York ice went to California, and California fruit came to New York.

Yup, of course they didn't quite have the same standards as we do today. They would have accepted produce in much worse condition than we do today.

 Grey Templar wrote:
Yup, of course they didn't quite have the same standards as we do today. They would have accepted produce in much worse condition than we do today.

The Pure Food and Drug act was in 1906. Admittedly, the standards have changed, but selling spoiled food was out a LONG time before the interstate highways.

Also, I'm surprised how slow you all seem to think train travel is. Trains were doing 75 when trucks still had wooden wheels.

As the song says...

"You leave the Pennsylvania Station 'bout a quarter to four
Read a magazine and then you're in Baltimore
Dinner in the diner
Nothing could be finer
Than to have your ham an' eggs in Carolina"

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 Grey Templar wrote:
Yup, of course they didn't quite have the same standards as we do today. They would have accepted produce in much worse condition than we do today.

The Pure Food and Drug act was in 1906. Admittedly, the standards have changed, but selling spoiled food was out a LONG time before the interstate highways.

Also, I'm surprised how slow you all seem to think train travel is. Trains were doing 75 when trucks still had wooden wheels.

As the song says...

"You leave the Pennsylvania Station 'bout a quarter to four
Read a magazine and then you're in Baltimore
Dinner in the diner
Nothing could be finer
Than to have your ham an' eggs in Carolina"

Only with only 10% of the population, we won't be able to run those trains, or the trucks needed.

That is an extinction level event at this point.

The USA, Western Europe, and MOST of East Asia cannot survive on the 3,000,000; 4,000,000; and 200,000,000 people, respectively, that would be left in each region.

China and India could, (with roughly 100,000,000 each) but they would be IT. Their populations would drop to roughly the density of the USA.

But, the USA.

The NYC Area would go from 12 million to 20 million people to having 1 million to 2 million people. NYC itself would drop to just 200,000 people, which would be insufficient to manage the infrastructure.

Buildings would start falling over on people after 10 years.

In the rural areas, towns that were of 10,000 people, ALL needed to grow food would drop to just 1,000 people, and they would not have the equipment needed to do the farming to create the food required to support their own population, much less the people remaining in the urban areas.

The production of Fossil Fuels would be impossible, and there ARE NO REPLACEMENT tools available to provide for the population until such a time as they could be created, and organized.

There would be no cars, trucks, trains, etc. moving after a week or so.

And, NO, we would not be able to use Steam Engines.

There are maybe two dozen such engines left running in the USA, and they have no spare parts, or means to make spare parts, much less new Steam Engines, to use for nation-wide use.

I suspect at this point you are just trolling.

The alternative is .... well....

MB

Well naturally people aren't going to stay where they were before. They'll consolidate.

BeAfraid wrote:


Buildings would start falling over on people after 10 years.

Wait... what??? Fething seriously?

Empire State Building was built what... 100 years ago or so? It's still standing with no truly extensive maintenance. I mean, it's not like they have to replace each and every I-Beam every 30 years or some crap. Hell, it's been the site of terrorist attacks, and it's still standing.

Sorry, but unless there's a seismic event, most buildings are going to stand, and be usable for a lot longer than 10 years.

 Grey Templar wrote:
Well naturally people aren't going to stay where they were before. They'll consolidate.

How?

Unless that consolidation is perfectly adjusted, and people go EXACTLY where their skills will be needed (and NO, the Internet is NOT built to function without support), then all they will be doing is moving somewhere else to wait and die.

How will they know WHERE to consolidate?

Which cities will be kept functioning, which will be abandoned, where will food production be supported (AND HOW will it be supported??? - remember, no gasoline after about two weeks).

China would have a population large enough to continue infrastructure support (because they still have a significant portion of their population working with pre-industrial tools). Same thing with India. Rural Africa would survive (because they still remain pre-industrial sustenance farmers). Some of the Amazon basin would (as would the South Pacific Islands).

But the USA, Mexico, Canada, and all of Europe would die off, because our societies are so dependent upon IT networked technologies, and post-Industrial Technologies that without the population to support these technologies, we simply cannot support the population.

Far, far more than 90% would wind up dying off. It would look like Cormac McCarthy's The Road.

MB

BeAfraid wrote:


How?

Unless that consolidation is perfectly adjusted, and people go EXACTLY where their skills will be needed (and NO, the Internet is NOT built to function without support), then all they will be doing is moving somewhere else to wait and die.

How will they know WHERE to consolidate?

Well, there are many low tech means by which people might do so. Radio does still exist in your world, right? Tune your handset to 640 and 1240 CONELRAD.

BeAfraid wrote:

Which cities will be kept functioning, which will be abandoned, where will food production be supported (AND HOW will it be supported??? - remember, no gasoline after about two weeks).

You keep saying that, and I keep laughing. Remember, you only have 10% of the current population. That '2 weeks worth of gas' is at current rates of consumption. Also, you do realize that horse drawn farm equipment is still produced in bulk, and some of it takes a LONG time to break down...

As far as which cities would be maintained, that would depend on the natural flow of people and material. Major ports would likely survive, though reduced in number. Cities like Pittsburgh, where several types of overland and water transport converge would also likely see continued survival. Boise, Idaho, however, would likely no longer be a going concern. You'd most likely see a handful of interior cities survive, with most people migrating to the coast.

BeAfraid wrote:

But the USA, Mexico, Canada, and all of Europe would die off, because our societies are so dependent upon IT networked technologies, and post-Industrial Technologies that without the population to support these technologies, we simply cannot support the population.

I'm not sure if I should break down laughing at this point or not. You REALLY think that the loss of hte Internet would doom all those people. HOW THE HELL do you think people survived before 1984???? Actually, how the hell fo you think that a lot of them survive now??? You do realize that the Internet is still not Universal even in the US and Europe, and that libraries are filled with these things called 'books'.

And, I dunno if you've ever been to Mexico, but, just.... no.

BeAfraid wrote:

Buildings would start falling over on people after 10 years.

That would depend on their construction. Steel frame buildings can take about 50 years to reach that point, assuming that no human beings perform any maint at all. Wooden fram houses, assuming that again, no one doesany maintanece at all, most certainly would start fallign on that timescale.

BeAfraid wrote:

In the rural areas, towns that were of 10,000 people, ALL needed to grow food would drop to just 1,000 people, and they would not have the equipment needed to do the farming to create the food required to support their own population, much less the people remaining in the urban areas.

I might read that one to some Amish I know. They'd find that pretty funny.

BeAfraid wrote:

The production of Fossil Fuels would be impossible, and there ARE NO REPLACEMENT tools available to provide for the population until such a time as they could be created, and organized.

The production of petroleum has been going on since the US only had a population of 17 million. I grant it would have to be organized, however....

BeAfraid wrote:

There would be no cars, trucks, trains, etc. moving after a week or so.

You do realize that it's unlikely that a population reduced to 10% would consume fuel at the rate of a population at 100% right?

BeAfraid wrote:

And, NO, we would not be able to use Steam Engines.

There are maybe two dozen such engines left running in the USA, and they have no spare parts, or means to make spare parts, much less new Steam Engines, to use for nation-wide use.

Wrong. Interestingly, on both counts. Yes, parts are available, and, yes, you can build new ones. Unless you're assuming that factories can't work at that level of population, which, again, i have to point out, the US had factories before it had a Civil War. But, no, you don't need steam engines.

 BaronIveagh wrote:

BeAfraid wrote:


How?

Unless that consolidation is perfectly adjusted, and people go EXACTLY where their skills will be needed (and NO, the Internet is NOT built to function without support), then all they will be doing is moving somewhere else to wait and die.

How will they know WHERE to consolidate?

Well, there are many low tech means by which people might do so. Radio does still exist in your world, right? Tune your handset to 640 and 1240 CONELRAD.

BeAfraid wrote:

Which cities will be kept functioning, which will be abandoned, where will food production be supported (AND HOW will it be supported??? - remember, no gasoline after about two weeks).

You keep saying that, and I keep laughing. Remember, you only have 10% of the current population. That '2 weeks worth of gas' is at current rates of consumption. Also, you do realize that horse drawn farm equipment is still produced in bulk, and some of it takes a LONG time to break down...

As far as which cities would be maintained, that would depend on the natural flow of people and material. Major ports would likely survive, though reduced in number. Cities like Pittsburgh, where several types of overland and water transport converge would also likely see continued survival. Boise, Idaho, however, would likely no longer be a going concern. You'd most likely see a handful of interior cities survive, with most people migrating to the coast.

BeAfraid wrote:

But the USA, Mexico, Canada, and all of Europe would die off, because our societies are so dependent upon IT networked technologies, and post-Industrial Technologies that without the population to support these technologies, we simply cannot support the population.

I'm not sure if I should break down laughing at this point or not. You REALLY think that the loss of hte Internet would doom all those people. HOW THE HELL do you think people survived before 1984???? Actually, how the hell fo you think that a lot of them survive now??? You do realize that the Internet is still not Universal even in the US and Europe, and that libraries are filled with these things called 'books'.

And, I dunno if you've ever been to Mexico, but, just.... no.

BeAfraid wrote:

Buildings would start falling over on people after 10 years.

That would depend on their construction. Steel frame buildings can take about 50 years to reach that point, assuming that no human beings perform any maint at all. Wooden fram houses, assuming that again, no one doesany maintanece at all, most certainly would start fallign on that timescale.

BeAfraid wrote:

In the rural areas, towns that were of 10,000 people, ALL needed to grow food would drop to just 1,000 people, and they would not have the equipment needed to do the farming to create the food required to support their own population, much less the people remaining in the urban areas.

I might read that one to some Amish I know. They'd find that pretty funny.

BeAfraid wrote:

The production of Fossil Fuels would be impossible, and there ARE NO REPLACEMENT tools available to provide for the population until such a time as they could be created, and organized.

The production of petroleum has been going on since the US only had a population of 17 million. I grant it would have to be organized, however....

BeAfraid wrote:

There would be no cars, trucks, trains, etc. moving after a week or so.

You do realize that it's unlikely that a population reduced to 10% would consume fuel at the rate of a population at 100% right?

BeAfraid wrote:

And, NO, we would not be able to use Steam Engines.

There are maybe two dozen such engines left running in the USA, and they have no spare parts, or means to make spare parts, much less new Steam Engines, to use for nation-wide use.

Wrong. Interestingly, on both counts. Yes, parts are available, and, yes, you can build new ones. Unless you're assuming that factories can't work at that level of population, which, again, i have to point out, the US had factories before it had a Civil War. But, no, you don't need steam engines.

So much wrong with this.

To begin with, we no longer have a horse population either large enough, nor located where it could be used for transportation. Like EVERYTHING ELSE PRE-INDUSTRIAL.

http://www.humanesociety.org/assets/pdfs/hsp/soaiv_07_ch10.pdf

Most horses in the USA are not draft horses, we have no harnesses readily available (it would take months to create just the harnesses.

As for your thinking about Steam Engines... Who is going to make these parts? Where are the plans and specs for them? Will the people who know how to both read the specs and operate the machinery still be alive? Will the people who even know how to operate the Steam Engines still be alive? There are only about 400 - 600 such people in the USA, a 90% reduction in population would leave 4 - 6 such people... It that, as the margin of error on a 90% reduction in population is such that ALL of them could be in the 90%.

I can't take this seriously any longer, since you do not seem to understand what is meant by "Infrastructure" nor that it is now wholly different than what was in place even just as late as 1990, never mind 1900 - 1920. Nor do you seem to be aware of the consumption of natural resources that has occurred since then, and how that affects reverting to a pre-industrial infrastructure (which does not exist).

MB

Can we please get back and stay on topic here?

Thanks!

Thankfully, our wonderful NATO Ally, Turkey, has joined the fray and stepped up bombing:

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-turkey-bombing-kurds-20150729-story.html#page=1

 CptJake wrote:
Thankfully, our wonderful NATO Ally, Turkey, has joined the fray and stepped up bombing:

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-turkey-bombing-kurds-20150729-story.html#page=1

Too bad they're also still bombing our allies, last I heard.

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 CptJake wrote:
Thankfully, our wonderful NATO Ally, Turkey, has joined the fray and stepped up bombing:

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-turkey-bombing-kurds-20150729-story.html#page=1

Too bad they're also still bombing our allies, last I heard.

Yeah, bombing the Kurds. Turkey...

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 CptJake wrote:
Thankfully, our wonderful NATO Ally, Turkey, has joined the fray and stepped up bombing:

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-turkey-bombing-kurds-20150729-story.html#page=1

Too bad they're also still bombing our allies, last I heard.

Even without a sarcasm icon, or without reading the article i linked to, the title of the article visible in the link should have given that away.

BeAfraid wrote:


So much wrong with this.

To begin with, we no longer have a horse population either large enough, nor located where it could be used for transportation. Like EVERYTHING ELSE PRE-INDUSTRIAL.

http://www.humanesociety.org/assets/pdfs/hsp/soaiv_07_ch10.pdf

Most horses in the USA are not draft horses, we have no harnesses readily available (it would take months to create just the harnesses.

As for your thinking about Steam Engines... Who is going to make these parts? Where are the plans and specs for them? Will the people who know how to both read the specs and operate the machinery still be alive? Will the people who even know how to operate the Steam Engines still be alive? There are only about 400 - 600 such people in the USA, a 90% reduction in population would leave 4 - 6 such people... It that, as the margin of error on a 90% reduction in population is such that ALL of them could be in the 90%.

I can't take this seriously any longer, since you do not seem to understand what is meant by "Infrastructure" nor that it is now wholly different than what was in place even just as late as 1990, never mind 1900 - 1920. Nor do you seem to be aware of the consumption of natural resources that has occurred since then, and how that affects reverting to a pre-industrial infrastructure (which does not exist).

MB

So much that we can't be bothered to refute anything that was said, other than to ask if people know how to work a steam engine.

Yes, if they passed high-school science in the state of Pennsylvania in the last 20 years, yes, they at the very least understand how it works. As far as manufacturing the parts goes, if you've ever fabricated machinery parts, you can probably do this. If you wonder how ot do it, the Pennsylvania railroad museum has both books and demonstration videos on how to fabricate parts and restore rail cars and engines.

On the horse thing, you might want to read the part where it admits that the surveys are wildly inaccurate, due to the fact that they're mostly done via registered horse associations. If your horse is not a registered purebread XYZ, it does not count. They brign this up in the 'Invisible' horse population section. And, even if they're very much low-balled estimate is right, in 1910, when the horse was still pretty much king, the ratio between people and horses was 1 horse to 3 (ish) people. If you were to dial back the number of people to 10%, that's 10 million horses to 30 million people. Huh. 1:3.

And you keep using 'Pre industrial' to mean anything before 1990. Let me let you in on something; In the area I'm in, your supposedly non existent infrastructure still exists. I admit, I'm not sure what you mean at this point by infrastructure, because around here, it hasn't changed a whole lot since before 1990. Other than they paved the roads.

I have, however, started a new thread for us to discuss this further, over here:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/658394.page

Won't this just provoke direct retaliation and terror attacks by the more militant Kurds?

But of course, thats probably exactly what Erdogan wants...

 CptJake wrote:
Even without a sarcasm icon, or without reading the article i linked to, the title of the article visible in the link should have given that away.

Didn't read that one, saw it on BBC.

And another win for the US fight against DaIsh (THIS IS SARCASM)

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/31/world/middleeast/us-trained-islamic-state-opponents-reported-kidnapped-in-syria.html?_r=0

Pretty decent article about the DoD program to train Syrian fighters to take on DaIsh and the troubles the program is facing.

The leader of the tiny group to have already been trained has been nabbed by the Nusra Front (Al Queda affiliated).

The biggest kidnapping prize on Thursday was a leader of the trainees, Nadeem Hassan. When the Pentagon announced the program last year, Mr. Hassan helped to gather several groups totaling 1,200 insurgents, who were already fighting in Syria and willing to join the training. They began fighting together as a unit called Division 30. Also abducted were at least six other fighters from Division 30, but an American official said they were not among the graduates.

A nice video of his beheading or otherwise unpleasant death will go far towards discouraging others to work with the US.

 CptJake wrote:
A nice video of his beheading or otherwise unpleasant death will go far towards discouraging others to work with the US.

I doubt they kidnapped him for that. They've had a shortage of trainers.

And supposedly atm Al-Nusra Front's commanders are telling Al jazeera that they want to play nice with the US.

Can we just roll out the B-52s already?

 Grey Templar wrote:
Can we just roll out the B-52s already?

On it's face... that is appealing.

But, can you look in the mirror knowing that'll destroy the non-ISIS folks?

How do you combat against this?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3181164/Yazidi-boy-four-forced-join-ISIS-terror-camp-learn-Sharia-Law-Koran-given-sword-behead-MOTHER.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

I'm sure we'd cope. Just like everyone did when we did the same in WW2 to far far more people.

 Grey Templar wrote:
Can we just roll out the B-52s already?

Can't
Sequester cuts

 Jihadin wrote:

 Grey Templar wrote:
Can we just roll out the B-52s already?

Can't
Sequester cuts

We could if we dropped the F-35... hell, we could save the A-10 while we're at it

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 CptJake wrote:
A nice video of his beheading or otherwise unpleasant death will go far towards discouraging others to work with the US.

I doubt they kidnapped him for that. They've had a shortage of trainers.

And supposedly atm Al-Nusra Front's commanders are telling Al jazeera that they want to play nice with the US.

BS.

They are not 'short on trainers'. And Nusra Front has been very deliberately and systematically taking out or taking over groups with US ties.

 CptJake wrote:


BS.

They are not 'short on trainers'. And Nusra Front has been very deliberately and systematically taking out or taking over groups with US ties.

Well, we'll see. If his head gets lopped off on youtube, then we'll know which it was.

Not necessarily, and you know that.

 whembly wrote:

 Grey Templar wrote:
Can we just roll out the B-52s already?

On it's face... that is appealing.

But, can you look in the mirror knowing that'll destroy the non-ISIS folks?

How do you combat against this?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3181164/Yazidi-boy-four-forced-join-ISIS-terror-camp-learn-Sharia-Law-Koran-given-sword-behead-MOTHER.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline

Honestly, the majority of the Middle East has become such a massive cesspool of racial intolerance & religious stupidity, that a "reset button" wouldn't bother me much... Egypt if it can crush the Muslim Brotherhood, and the likes of Tunisia & Jordan are solid examples of how we can have modestly successful, liberal Muslim democracies.
The majority of the region though is still too busy playing 'Conquest version 999AD', and/or slaughtering each other because they're worshiping 'wrong'. Let alone the massive human rights issues towards women in general, (cows have higher social standing ffs!), never mind how they treat other those of other religions, or gays, etc...

Really, the current Middle East is a textbook lesson in why a church run state is among the worst types of government in human history.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/01/world/middleeast/nusra-front-attacks-us-backed-syrian-rebel-group.html

Follow up on CptJake's article.


1) It would seem that US command had heard the same things I did, and acted on them without really following up on the intel first.

2) Ryder needs to extract his head from his ass. One of the last things Nadeem did before being captured was explain how hard it was to recruit anyone, and why, in an interview.

Surprise, surprise, part of it was an unwillingness from Washington to recruit anyone that would not foreswear continuing the war against Assad as well as fighting ISIS.