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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:05:17
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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Some people say Thousand Sons are actually okay and fair value, some don't. And after this relatively simple math (with no mistakes to armour saves), I hope you will understand why they are good against MEQs and for their cheap sorcerer.
For this scenario I've picked CSMs to fight them in a stand up firefight with NO close combat, which is the Thousand Sons' niche, as the CSMs power armour will be as useful as the IGs much-lauded wet cardboard flak jacket. I've chosen to drop the Sorcerer and instead add 6 Rubric Marines, making them 230 points for 10 Thousand Sons. The Sorcerer ads too much variability and makes the math impossible, but if you want to take Thousand Sons for the 58 point sorcerer, that's fair. For the CSMs I've, for simplicity's sake, picked 14 CSMs with 2 plasma guns. Let's also assume, again for simplicity's sake, everyone's at almost max range with no cover, so only firing one shot each, and at the same time.
I've got both squads shooting at the same time and assuming the bolter-wielding CSMs have dubious role of meat-shield, normally an honour reserved for Cultists.
For Thousand Sons:
10 bolters = 10(2/3) shots = 20/3 hits. 20/3(1/2) = 20/6 or 3 1/3 or 3.33 wounds in the first round.
This means the CSMs are taking 3.33 wounds in the first round, or 3.33*0.083 as of bolter percentage output.
81.11%(20/6) = 2.7 wounds in the second round. Total of 6.04 wounds caused.
65.91%20/6) = 2.2 wounds in the third round. Total of 8.23 wounds caused.
53.7%(20/6) = 1.79 wounds in the fourth round. Total of 10.02 wounds caused.
43.93% (20/6) = 1.46 wounds in the fifth round. Total of 11.49 wounds caused.
38.91% (20/6) = 1.3 wounds in the sixth round. Total of 12.79 wounds caused.
35.51% (20/6) = 1.18 wounds in the seventh round. Total of 13.97 wounds caused.
For CSMs:
12 bolters = 12(2/3) shots = 8 hits. 8(1/2) = 4 wounds. 4(1/3) =1 1/3 or 1.34
2 plasmaguns = 2(2/3) shots = 4/3 hits. 4/3(5/6) = 10/9 wounds. 10/9(1/2) = 5/9 or 0.55 wounds per round.
Plasmagun explosion: 1/6(2/3) = 1/9 or 0.11 chance of unsaved wound per shot, translating into 2/9 or 0.22 wounds per round, meaning 4 rounds of "unharmed" shooting. I could alternatively recalculate by dropping their firepower by 2/9 every round.
4/3 + 0.55 = 1.89 in the first round.
72.33%(1 1/3) + 0.55 = 1.52 wounds in the second round. Total of 3.41 wounds caused.
49.89%(1 1/3) + 0.55 = 1.22 wounds in the third round. Total of 4.63 wounds caused.
31.66%(1 1/3) + 0.55 = 0.98 wounds in the fourth round. Total of 5.62 wounds caused.
16.8%(1 1/3) + 0.28 = 0.5 wounds in the fifth round. Total of 6.11 wounds caused.
4.65%(1 1/3) + 0.28 = 0.34 wounds in the sixth round. Total of 6.45 wounds caused.
0.28 wounds in the seventh round. Total of 6.73 wounds caused.
At the end of turn 7, the CSMs are all dead at the hands of the Thousand Sons, the last plasmagun-wielding CSMs killed by Inferno bolts a turn before his hands get melted.
Some changes that could be made to the maths is incorporating all the CSM firepower into one statistic and dividing the wounds thusly. That I’ve taken the plasmagun firepower to suddenly change isn’t necessarily consistent with my methods, but it is more realistic rules-wise.
An argument can of course be made for the sorcerer being well worth his 58 points, but the added Thousand Sons at 23 points a pop for what is a 13 point CSM with VotLW (+1 point), 4++ (Aura of Dark Glory and Mark of Tzeentch) and AP 3 (Inferno bolts) is not worth the points unless fighting MEQs. If you drop the Rubric Marine to 22 (or 21) points, they may be more universal. I might even do the maths to figure out at what point cost Thousand Sons beat non-MEQs in a firefight now I have an Excel spreadsheet with no mistakes!
*I was obviously wrong and apologise profusely to Ailaros and anyone else misled by my erroneous numbers!
If my maths are off, or I've done something else stupid, let me know and I'll redo the maths later.
*Maths were off as there was a mistake in Rubric Marine saves. Apologies.
Kudos to Moar Wargames on Twitter who was the only one who discovered my mistake (though I did realise it seconds before he did)!
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This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2014/11/05 01:06:22
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:06:06
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Cosmic Joe
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Who doesn't like troops that die as easily as regular marines but cost the same as terminators?
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Also, check out my history blog: Minimum Wage Historian, a fun place to check out history that often falls between the couch cushions. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:07:31
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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MWHistorian wrote:Who doesn't like troops that die as easily as regular marines but cost the same as terminators?
That's actually what was saving them from being utterly smashed. Their 4++ against the plasmaguns. The bolters don't do much, but the plasma guns whittle them down.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:19:08
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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ChazSexington wrote:If my maths are off, or I've done something else stupid, let me know and I'll redo the maths later.
Your math is correct, but you're looking at a single tree and calling it the forest.
You're taking 1ksons and comparing only killing power compared to regular CSM. Meanwhile, as you yourself note, you're flat-out ignoring that part where they have a sorcerer (for both psychic phase stuff and force weapon), and you're partially ignoring their invul save (throw them both up against an opponent with a power fist and you'll see what I mean), and you're ignoring fearless too, and votlw.
Yes, of course, 1ksons don't bolter stuff to death as efficiently as CSM. CSM are nearly uniquely good at this. You're comparing the best strength of a unit against only one of the strengths of another unit and declaring the first one the victor. In these circumstances you've set up, of course 1ksons are going to look bad.
But I could come up with any set of circumstances this narrow that make anything look bad. Mutilators will kill a riptide in close combat, but does that mean mutilators are great and riptides are garbage? No, it just means on that particular metric, ignoring everything else, mutilators are better.
Same thing here. 1ksons aren't "objectively" worse so much as they are "specifically" worse, depending on what you specify.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/11/04 20:19:39
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:26:54
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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Ailaros wrote:ChazSexington wrote:If my maths are off, or I've done something else stupid, let me know and I'll redo the maths later.
Your math is correct, but you're looking at a single tree and calling it the forest.
You're taking 1ksons and comparing only killing power compared to regular CSM. Meanwhile, as you yourself note, you're flat-out ignoring that part where they have a sorcerer (for both psychic phase stuff and force weapon), and you're partially ignoring their invul save (throw them both up against an opponent with a power fist and you'll see what I mean), and you're ignoring fearless too, and votlw.
Yes, of course, 1ksons don't bolter stuff to death as efficiently as CSM. CSM are nearly uniquely good at this. You're comparing the best strength of a unit against only one of the strengths of another unit and declaring the first one the victor. In these circumstances you've set up, of course 1ksons are going to look bad.
But I could come up with any set of circumstances this narrow that make anything look bad. Mutilators will kill a riptide in close combat, but does that mean mutilators are great and riptides are garbage? No, it just means on that particular metric, ignoring everything else, mutilators are better.
Same thing here. 1ksons aren't "objectively" worse so much as they are "specifically" worse, depending on what you specify.
I'm comparing Thousand Sons' killing power in their niche against allrounders. Their killing power should be much higher vs CSMs as killing MEQs is their niche. I'm aware that for example against gunline IG or a Landraider this wouldn't have been a fair gauge of their killing power to point ratio, but they should definitely take down CSMs.
I'm arguing their 23 point cost per Rubric Marine rather than their squad starting cost though. Thousand Sons/Rubric Marines are simply not worth the point cost, however, the Sorcerer is likely to be worth the cost. Drop the Rubrics a point or two so they can outgun MEQs and you've got a good, well-balanced unit.
I do however realise that maybe it would make more sense to have them all fire two shots each - that might change the maths in their favour.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/11/04 20:27:53
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:29:07
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Stitch Counter
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Ailaros wrote:ChazSexington wrote:If my maths are off, or I've done something else stupid, let me know and I'll redo the maths later.
Your math is correct, but you're looking at a single tree and calling it the forest.
You're taking 1ksons and comparing only killing power compared to regular CSM. Meanwhile, as you yourself note, you're flat-out ignoring that part where they have a sorcerer (for both psychic phase stuff and force weapon), and you're partially ignoring their invul save (throw them both up against an opponent with a power fist and you'll see what I mean), and you're ignoring fearless too, and votlw.
Yes, of course, 1ksons don't bolter stuff to death as efficiently as CSM. CSM are nearly uniquely good at this. You're comparing the best strength of a unit against only one of the strengths of another unit and declaring the first one the victor. In these circumstances you've set up, of course 1ksons are going to look bad.
But I could come up with any set of circumstances this narrow that make anything look bad. Mutilators will kill a riptide in close combat, but does that mean mutilators are great and riptides are garbage? No, it just means on that particular metric, ignoring everything else, mutilators are better.
Same thing here. 1ksons aren't "objectively" worse so much as they are "specifically" worse, depending on what you specify.
I agree with this. Plus other factors like Soul Blaze.
Generally I run my Thousand Sons in a rhino transport too so they're not out in the open and they gang up on other units
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Thousand Sons: 3850pts / Space Marines Deathwatch 5000pts / Dark Eldar Webway Corsairs 2000pts / Scrapheap Challenged Orks 1500pts / Black Death 1500pts
Saga: (Vikings, Normans, Anglo Danes, Irish, Scots, Late Romans, Huns and Anglo Saxons), Lion Rampant, Ronin: (Bushi x2, Sohei), Frostgrave: (Enchanter, Thaumaturge, Illusionist)
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:30:32
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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Wulfmar wrote: Ailaros wrote:ChazSexington wrote:If my maths are off, or I've done something else stupid, let me know and I'll redo the maths later.
Your math is correct, but you're looking at a single tree and calling it the forest.
You're taking 1ksons and comparing only killing power compared to regular CSM. Meanwhile, as you yourself note, you're flat-out ignoring that part where they have a sorcerer (for both psychic phase stuff and force weapon), and you're partially ignoring their invul save (throw them both up against an opponent with a power fist and you'll see what I mean), and you're ignoring fearless too, and votlw.
Yes, of course, 1ksons don't bolter stuff to death as efficiently as CSM. CSM are nearly uniquely good at this. You're comparing the best strength of a unit against only one of the strengths of another unit and declaring the first one the victor. In these circumstances you've set up, of course 1ksons are going to look bad.
But I could come up with any set of circumstances this narrow that make anything look bad. Mutilators will kill a riptide in close combat, but does that mean mutilators are great and riptides are garbage? No, it just means on that particular metric, ignoring everything else, mutilators are better.
Same thing here. 1ksons aren't "objectively" worse so much as they are "specifically" worse, depending on what you specify.
I agree with this. Plus other factors like Soul Blaze.
Generally I run my Thousand Sons in a rhino transport too so they're not out in the open and they gang up on other units
I can add in Soul Blaze and pull them closer. A Rhino wouldn't make sense in testing their firepower against CSMs though - they would normally do the same and charge ( MoK or MoS and power weapons).
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:36:52
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Regular Dakkanaut
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While we all know certain things are over- or undercosted I'm not sure what this simulation is trying to prove. The same unit can perform very differently depending on what it's facing.
With particular reference to TS, you are paying for things (mainly their 4++) which really aren't useful to them. A 4++ is far more valuable on a model without an armour save than a marine with a 3+, but who knows how GW calculates these things? Seeing as TS are also paying for AP3, your simulation does suggest that they are overcosted since they didn't even win what they were supposed to be good at. However, they are also paying for Fearless and you didn't take morale tests into account in your simulation.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 20:52:09
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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ryuken87 wrote:While we all know certain things are over- or undercosted I'm not sure what this simulation is trying to prove. The same unit can perform very differently depending on what it's facing.
With particular reference to TS, you are paying for things (mainly their 4++) which really aren't useful to them. A 4++ is far more valuable on a model without an armour save than a marine with a 3+, but who knows how GW calculates these things? Seeing as TS are also paying for AP3, your simulation does suggest that they are overcosted since they didn't even win what they were supposed to be good at. However, they are also paying for Fearless and you didn't take morale tests into account in your simulation.
I'm trying to show that Thousand Sons aren't necessarily worth the outlay in their niche.
However, I realised I'd made a mistake in calculating the chance of a wound going unsaved. Correcting it now, I'll change the top post. It might change things quite a bit.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 21:29:44
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot
On moon miranda.
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AP3 is something GW consistently sees as this amazingly powerful ability that is worth a ton of points. There's a reason why IG Stormtroopers (or Scions or whatever they are now) and Thousand Sons and Vespid Stingwings have been very absent on most tables and practically extinct in competitive events for, well, several editions at this point.
AP3 is useful when you're wounding on 2's and ID'ing T4 characters and doing it from across the table with a pieplate, or are wounding on 2's and ignoring cover saves on a supremely fast and hard to kill machine. Not so much on close range small arms on slow infantry.
Likewise, that 4++ is nice on paper, but if they're not being shot by anything that forces it to be taken, it's pointless, and for those attacks that do make it useful, well, if cover is in the equation then it's value is seriously decreased and even if not, the increased cost of the unit is not offsetting the same relative points value of what you'd otherwise lose. Losing 3 guys instead of 6 is awesome, except when those 3 guys cost more than the 6 would have.
The Sorceror is kinda neat, but in most cases you'd rather have a powerfist than a force weapon, and typically won't have a power that synergizes with the rest of the units firepower well.
on top of that, their CC capabilities are thoroughly mediocre, and far less capable than what a basic CSM squad can do with the same numbers (and even less capable if you start looking at equivalent points investment).
To top it all off, they're Slow and Purposeful as well, which is now purely a hindrance with the changes to Rapid Fire weapons rather than something useful as it was in 4th and 5th editions.
You're just better off with a greater number of basic CSM's and coordinating them. If they dropped S&P and took say, 35pts off the cost of a 10man unit, they'd be solid. As is, they're unfortunately only really there to be taken for their cool-factor.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/11/04 21:30:19
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 21:35:04
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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ChazSexington wrote:Their killing power should be much higher vs CSMs as killing MEQs is their niche.
Which, as your math shows, isn't.
That doesn't mean that 1ksons are bad, it's just that you were misinformed about 1ksons.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/04 23:32:17
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Killer Klaivex
The dark behind the eyes.
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Vaktathi wrote:AP3 is something GW consistently sees as this amazingly powerful ability that is worth a ton of points. There's a reason why IG Stormtroopers (or Scions or whatever they are now) and Thousand Sons and Vespid Stingwings have been very absent on most tables and practically extinct in competitive events for, well, several editions at this point.
AP3 is useful when you're wounding on 2's and ID'ing T4 characters and doing it from across the table with a pieplate, or are wounding on 2's and ignoring cover saves on a supremely fast and hard to kill machine. Not so much on close range small arms on slow infantry.
So much this.
I especially hate seeing AP3 on power weapons - especially when it's on an expensive, Relic item.
Vaktathi wrote:
Likewise, that 4++ is nice on paper, but if they're not being shot by anything that forces it to be taken, it's pointless, and for those attacks that do make it useful, well, if cover is in the equation then it's value is seriously decreased and even if not, the increased cost of the unit is not offsetting the same relative points value of what you'd otherwise lose. Losing 3 guys instead of 6 is awesome, except when those 3 guys cost more than the 6 would have.
I think the other aspect is that a 4++ save doesn't really mesh with their role.
- Is this a unit that's likely to draw a lot of AP2/3 fire? Well, not really. Maybe someone will fire plasma or a battlecannon shell at them, but it seems like they'll be hard-pressed to actually draw it. I mean, they fall just as easily to basic weapons as standard marines, and aren't even particularly threatening (so, in terms of heavy weapons, they'll probably only get hit if there are no other targets around).
- Is this a unit that will struggle to find cover? A fast unit with short-ranged weapons might benefit more from a 4++ save (since it may well have to abandon cover to get into range). But, Thousand Sons are not fast and their weapons have a decent range. Maybe if they have a transport, but even then you're not really making the most of their save.
- Is it a melee unit? Nope. Obviously cover can't help you in combat, so a 4++ would come in handy for a melee unit. Sadly, Thousand Sons aren't even remotely good in melee (At the very least, they don't want to be there).
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blood reaper wrote:I will respect human rights and trans people but I will never under any circumstances use the phrase 'folks' or 'ya'll'. I would rather be killed by firing squad.
the_scotsman wrote:Yeah, when i read the small novel that is the Death Guard unit options and think about resolving the attacks from a melee-oriented min size death guard squad, the thing that springs to mind is "Accessible!"
Argive wrote:GW seems to have a crystal ball and just pulls hairbrained ideas out of their backside for the most part.
Andilus Greatsword wrote:
"Prepare to open fire at that towering Wraithknight!"
"ARE YOU DAFT MAN!?! YOU MIGHT HIT THE MEN WHO COME UP TO ITS ANKLES!!!"
Akiasura wrote:I hate to sound like a serial killer, but I'll be reaching for my friend occam's razor yet again.
insaniak wrote:
You're not. If you're worried about your opponent using 'fake' rules, you're having fun the wrong way. This hobby isn't about rules. It's about buying Citadel miniatures.
Please report to your nearest GW store for attitude readjustment. Take your wallet. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 00:33:18
Subject: Re:The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Wing Commander
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On the subject of AP3 being over-valued on infantry, I'd make a counter-arguement that, in fact, it's that AP3 is undercosted on, well, everything else. It's no secret that 3+ armour is of dubious value with the creep in AP values, and Stormtroopers and 1ksons are an example of a unit which once upon a time had clear niche, but as everything else become much better at killing power armour, they've remained largely unchanged. 115 points for 5 1ksons who, if the number gods are with them, kill 3 or four marines in the open a turn at 12'' or less, or 150 points for an AV 14/13/10 tank with a St 8 Ap3 pieplate which can kill half a dozen marines in the open a turn from across the table, and inflict buckets of wounds on guys hiding in cover as they bunch up, or glance away light vehicles, and the Leman Russ is hardly the best Ap3/2/1 delivery tool out there.
Even then, the way cover works further decreases the value of Ap, armour and invulnerables; my 5 point Guardsman in a ruin has just about the same survivability as a 1kson, and has better than a Terminator's when shot at by Ap1/2 weapons.
There's a confluence of factors in the game's core rules that make 1ksons, amongst other units with a similar role, undesirable; prevalence of high strength, low AP blasts or high volume of fire weapons, particularly vehicle/MC mounted, and the fact that cover is a saving throw, both increasing their targets survival chances markedly, while also reducing their own highly costed 4++ and 3+.
Put 1ksons in an environment where, like say almost every other tabletop game in existence, cover is a modifier to hit and the game isn't dominated by big stompy robots/tanks/gribbly beasts who are both cheaper and better armed than the rest of the game put together, and they'd become a good unit without a single points change. Heck, they're downright lethal in Kill Team; cover saves are harder to get, and 3+ is kind of the be-all-end-all in protection, which they laugh maniacally at (or more realistically, whisper all is dust while gunning down foolish loyalists).
That fact that a unit with a 3+ 4++, Ap3 bolters, fearless, a sorcerer and the ability to charge after firing their Ap3 bolters for 10 ppm over a normal Chaos marine is mediocre at best says to me that there's a problem with the wider game more than the 1ksons themselves. Granted, this is all terribly biased by own perceptions of what I'd like 40k to be, coloured by Bolt Action and desiring the game to somewhat resemble the fluff in some vague form.
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Therefore, I conclude, Valve should announce Half Life 2: Episode 3.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 00:59:32
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are bad.
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Purposeful Hammerhead Pilot
Newcastle, NSW ,Australia
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I see TS as a really good unit, especially against my Tau army.
For their points your getting a MEQ state line with extra LD and an Invulnerable save of 4+. They have AP 3 weapons which ignore 5/6 of the SV values (3+ to -) , they don't need cover so they can walk around in the open, instead of leap frogging it from cover to cover like other units might. Their squad leader is a psyker with three powers, an AP 3 pistol and a force weapon. They are fearless and they have Hatred against marines, their only drawn back is slow and purposeful which stops them running and overwatching, but they can shoot and charge.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 01:00:44
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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I have now updated both thread and OP. I was wrong, Ailaros was right. However, I disagree that killing MEQs isn't their niche!
Again, apologies for any confusion caused
Edit - I just did the numbers for when rapid firing. CSMs are gone by turn 3-4.
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This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/11/05 01:27:48
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 01:38:51
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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ChazSexington wrote:However, I disagree that killing MEQs isn't their niche!
The problem here is that 1ksons are a complicated unit. They don't have just a, one, single special niche they fill.
They're an expensive, but versatile superscoring unit. In a way, you've almost got to think of them as terminators in a 'wing list. If you put terminators in a direct matchup against CSMs with bolters, they would likewise look bad when just comparing their killing power against each other, but, likewise, terminators are a more complex unit than just what their small arms can deliver.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 02:37:03
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot
On moon miranda.
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Ailaros wrote:ChazSexington wrote:However, I disagree that killing MEQs isn't their niche!
The problem here is that 1ksons are a complicated unit. They don't have just a, one, single special niche they fill.
They're an expensive, but versatile superscoring unit. In a way, you've almost got to think of them as terminators in a 'wing list. If you put terminators in a direct matchup against CSMs with bolters, they would likewise look bad when just comparing their killing power against each other, but, likewise, terminators are a more complex unit than just what their small arms can deliver.
They're *potentially* superscoring, they're Elites without taking a Tzeentch sorceror. The value of which is also highly situational.
One must remember that people generally aren't very impressed with Tactical Terminators either these days, the overwhelmingly vast majority of the time you see them is with TH/ SS setups. They don't lose any firepower you're going to miss but gain a lot of survivability. CSM termi's are likewise rare, still being most popular as 3man suicide combi-melta units.
The problem is that not only is their killing power disappointing with regards to their AP3 guns, but there's nothing about them that is in fact particularly impressive. Their raw CC stats aren't any better than a naked CSM's, and they're a whole lot slower to get there or avoid it, on top of S&P mucking with attacks on a charge. The only place they're better in in CC is against a unit with AP2/3 power weapons, and that just makes them an expensive tarpit, because they're not going to win any such combats. When it comes to survivability, their 4++ only really matters against heavy weapons fire while in the open, or against the handful of AP3 cover save ignoring weapons out there (the most prominent of which is another CSM unit), in most cases a far cheaper CSM unit getting a cover save is coming out on roughly equal terms for far fewer points.
They're an interesting concept, and I really like their imagery, but they suffer the same problems that Vespids and Stormtroopers do, which is that they lack the capability to truly effectively make best use of their most prominent advantages. With Stormtroopers they've got armor piercing wet-noodle guns limited to spitting range on dudes that die and break largely the same as 5pt putz guardsmen while costing as much as Space Marines, Vespids lack the volume of fire and survivability to function, while Tsons pay for a large number of advantages that don't particularly complement each other and are really poor at responding to counterattacks in the rangeband they're most effective.
If a unit of Tsons isn't shooting at anything with a 3+ or 4+ armor save in the open, it's killing power advantage is not being put to use. If it's not taking AP3/2 fire in the open, it's invul isn't being put to use. You can look at something like Plague Marines on the other hand, where their survivability bonuses apply, in at least some level, regardless of whether they're being hit with, be it a lasgun or a lascannon, and against all but the absolute most devastating of weapons (demolisher cannons, D weapons, etc). They're effectively "always on". Tsons on the other hand, are far more situational (if somebody is just shooting lots of Lasguns at them, that 4++ is rather pointless, likewise if they're fighting Orks or IG or the like, that AP3 is rather pointless) with far less flexibility in what kind of targets they can engage successfully.
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IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 02:48:14
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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Vaktathi wrote:They're *potentially* superscoring, they're Elites without taking a Tzeentch sorceror.
So? They're troops when you do.
Vaktathi wrote:One must remember that people generally aren't very impressed with Tactical Terminators either these days
Well, if all the cool kids say they're lame...
Vaktathi wrote:They don't lose any firepower you're going to miss but gain a lot of survivability.
Wait, so now you're saying that having a better ++ is a good thing? A 4++ would be almost as good.
And of course you're losing firepower going from guns to no guns, silly.
Vaktathi wrote:The problem is that not only is their killing power disappointing with regards to their AP3 guns, but there's nothing about them that is in fact particularly impressive.
Except for...
Vaktathi wrote:Their raw CC stats aren't any better than a naked CSM's
The fact that they're much better against MCs, what with their ++ and fearless for tarpitting and their force weapons. They're not better against light infantry than naked CSM, but so what?
Are CSM better at charging across the field on foot and getting something into close combat? Of course they are. So are khorne berzerkers. So are a lot of things. So what? Kroot are a lot better at getting into close combat than anything else in the tau codex. Does that mean kroot are the best unit in the codex, or that they're the best the codex has to offer in a particular role achieved in a particular way?
Vaktathi wrote:When it comes to survivability, their 4++ only really matters against heavy weapons fire while in the open, or against the handful of AP3 cover save ignoring weapons out there
Oh, nevermind, I guess you think ++'s are bad again. That was fast.
And cover saves only work when you're in cover. Other squads will cower in fear while 1ksons take their cover (in non-ignorable form) with them.
Vaktathi wrote:They're an interesting concept, and I really like their imagery, but they suffer the same problems that Vespids and Stormtroopers do, which is that they lack the capability to truly effectively make best use of their most prominent advantages.
"I can't make use of their advantages" is not a synonym for "their advantages can't be taken advantage of".
Making a list of certain times where you can't use certain abilities is rather meaningless here. At most you're only saying that either you're a bad player or that limited circumstances are limited. So what if they are?
So what if FRF lasguns can't hurt tanks? So what if plasma sternguard chew terminators to pieces? So what if flamers liquefy tightly-packed infantry? Having a weakness does not make something weak.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/11/05 02:52:44
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 02:55:25
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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Ailaros wrote:ChazSexington wrote:However, I disagree that killing MEQs isn't their niche!
The problem here is that 1ksons are a complicated unit. They don't have just a, one, single special niche they fill.
They're an expensive, but versatile superscoring unit. In a way, you've almost got to think of them as terminators in a 'wing list. If you put terminators in a direct matchup against CSMs with bolters, they would likewise look bad when just comparing their killing power against each other, but, likewise, terminators are a more complex unit than just what their small arms can deliver.
Terminators can at least take killing weapons at range, and they're still not impressive.
The issue is that Rubrics are too expensive for their job when cover mitigates most of their potential damage output. AP3 is cool, but it's STILL only S4, and since they're so expensive you notice less results when your regular Bolter Vanilla Marines (who aren't impressive, either, in any sense of the word) give the same results against more numerous opponents. The extra Warp Charge is nice, but I could simply do a CAD and, for 10 more points, get a Sorcerer and 2 minimal units of Cultists, which covers more area for more potential scoring, all while not having to roll on that terribad Tzeentch table. Speaking of MoT, they can be super-scoring, but require a REALLY bad HQ to do so, in the form of either a regular MoT Sorcerer or Ahriman, neither of which are really worth the points (the vanilla option less so).
So we could take them as a -Wing army, but it underperforms even against those armies, and underperforms as a -Wing army in general.
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CaptainStabby wrote:If Tyberos falls and needs to catch himself it's because the ground needed killing.
jy2 wrote:BTW, I can't wait to run Double-D-thirsters! Man, just thinking about it gets me Khorney.
vipoid wrote:Indeed - what sort of bastard would want to use their codex?
MarsNZ wrote:ITT: SoB players upset that they're receiving the same condescending treatment that they've doled out in every CSM thread ever. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 04:15:58
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot
On moon miranda.
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Ailaros wrote:Vaktathi wrote:They're *potentially* superscoring, they're Elites without taking a Tzeentch sorceror.
So? They're troops when you do.
Right, but it's not automatic. X only hold's true when Y hold's true, it's not an inherent unit property. You have to commit to another army choice, that otherwise you might not want to, for this to hold true.
Wait, so now you're saying that having a better ++ is a good thing? A 4++ would be almost as good.
With Terminators, you're generally running far fewer numbers. Even just a couple casualties that another unit can shake off will critically deplete the capability of the unit. The 3++ invul on *top* of the 2+ armor makes them much harder to kill in general, and even just one or two saves made can make all the difference in the world on a unit like that which relies on much smaller numbers typically. The invul on these units is worth a whole lot more as a result.
A typical TH/ SS squad is also cheaper than a typical Tsons squad on top of that to boot
And of course you're losing firepower going from guns to no guns, silly.
I'm pretty sure I addressed that, but that's 10 boltgun shots on a unit that's largely paying for that A2 stat and a Powerfist/hammer, that enhanced invul is going to be of greater value than the 10 bolter shots.
The fact that they're much better against MCs, what with their ++ and fearless for tarpitting and their force weapons.
If your Tsons are in combat with an MC, it's almost certainly on the MC's terms, not to the Tsons advantage. The Tsons are going to be relying almost entirely on that single Force weapon getting Force activated and trying to wound on 5's or more probably 6's (and hoping the Sorc doesn't get challenged out if it's a Character MC). If you're having to rely on a unit like Tsons to tarpit, well, that's a real expensive tarpit that probably costs more than the MC they're tarpitting. I'd much prefer a powerfist and BP/ CCW combo that's likely to stick just as much damage and save myself 50-80pts.
As an opponent, I'd be 100% ok Trading a 150-200pt MC for a 265pt squad of Troops.
They're not better against light infantry than naked CSM, but so what?
Again, not just light infantry, even other heavy infantry like other MEQ's. Again, a situations where a cheaper unit would serve better in a majority of situations. Furthermore, most CC situations will probably be on an opponents terms given that your Tsons are most effective at shooting and are S&P and thus can't run away from (or run down) opponents easily.
Are CSM better at charging across the field on foot and getting something into close combat? Of course they are. So are khorne berzerkers. So are a lot of things. So what? Kroot are a lot better at getting into close combat than anything else in the tau codex. Does that mean kroot are the best unit in the codex, or that they're the best the codex has to offer in a particular role achieved in a particular way?
Red herring alert. No, it's simply explaining one of many areas where Tsons simply aren't capable of competing despite costing far more than their more capable counterparts. Mechanized, charging on foot, whatever, doesn't matter.
Oh, nevermind, I guess you think ++'s are bad again. That was fast.
Stop intentionally misrepresenting what I'm saying and putting words in my mouth. I said nothing of the sort. What I *am* saying is that that 4++ invul is close enough to most cover saves that the extra cost the unit pays for it is out of proportion with its usefulness. I'm not saying that a 4++ invul save is worthless, just not as spectacularly useful as it seems to be given the nature of the unit.
And cover saves only work when you're in cover. Other squads will cower in fear while 1ksons take their cover (in non-ignorable form) with them.
Yes, that invul is better than cover, the issue is that it's still very close to most cover saves, cover isn't spectacularly hard to get, and they're 77% more expensive than their basic counterpart.
"I can't make use of their advantages" is not a synonym for "their advantages can't be taken advantage of".
Ho boy, look at that, a badly disguised "L2P" response, haven't seen that before!
Again, you're putting words in my mouth and misrepresenting what I'm saying.
Yes you can take advantage of their advantages. The issue is that, even when doing so, there are other things that can do the same job often equally well or well enough, often more flexibly, and usually much cheaper, providing greater value for the resources invested or similar value for a smaller investment.
Making a list of certain times where you can't use certain abilities is rather meaningless here. At most you're only saying that either you're a bad player or that limited circumstances are limited. So what if they are?
No, I'm pointing out that their advantages are far more situational than other units, highly dependent on specific factors, and thus in the majority of situations, you're better served by taking other units that *can* do the same jobs, and do others at the same time, and often do it for a far smaller points investment. As I pointed out above, the big reason why Plague Marines are so popular is that their resiliency is in play almost all the time against almost anything thrown at them and can't be replicated as easily by other units by simple positioning or extra wargear.
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IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 07:09:19
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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Vaktathi wrote:in the majority of situations, you're better served by taking other units that *can* do the same jobs, and do others at the same time, and often do it for a far smaller points investment.
And this is the crux of it. If you can think of a unit that can do a few things better than 1ksons, it doesn't really matter, as most units can do a few things better than most units. What you're talking about there is units being different, not one being straight better than the other.
But there is nothing that does everything that 1ksons do better than 1ksons, which means there are times when 1ksons are better than other units. Which means, once again, we're talking about units that are different, not better.
You can't, as the OP did, look at only one metric and say that because in that one thing something is better than 1ksons, that therefore 1ksons are bad. You can't even do this by looking at a few metrics. If all you needed was to be better at one or two things to make them good, and the other bad, then you would exactly get those "red herring" arguments, which shows just how bad the idea that being better at one thing means being better in general really is.
It's this same kind of broken reasoning that makes people greatly under-rate versatility, which is one of the strong points of 1ksons and tac terminators alike. Instead of looking only at the strengths of specialist units against versatile ones, look at the relative strengths of versatile units against the weaknesses of specialist units, and you see a very different story from the one being told here.
And you're going to disregard the fact that it's a strategy game where some things are harder than others as "mere L2P?". If you don't want to learn how to play a game better, why bother with a strategy game in the first place?
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 07:21:31
Subject: Re:The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Beautiful and Deadly Keeper of Secrets
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And you're going to disregard the fact that it's a strategy game where some things are harder than others as "mere L2P?". If you don't want to learn how to play a game better, why bother with a strategy game in the first place?
So what about those players who have learned the In's and out's of the game to the point who 'still' don't use them.
Does that mean you are now some bastion of hidden knowledge?
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 07:55:03
Subject: Re:The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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!!Goffik Rocker!!
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I've used 1000 sons in a few fun games in 6-th.
6-7 t-sons, t-sons sorc with a staff, rhino with a havok launcher.
In one game vs tau they just lost a rhino and than died to fire warriors in one turn. But the caused distraction allowed possessed with sorc and the prophet (yep, really fun games) to close the gap with crysis suits and a forgeworld riptide and tie them up for long enough to distract the army from cultists that just picked up a relic and hid behind a building. Though, i must say i've rolled invuls and fnp from endurance on possessed like a boss.
Another game was vs a dark angel player with a venerable landraider with combatsquadded vanguard vets + interrogator chaplain , dread, predator and some troops. I got lucky with a single combi-melta shot from a single combi-melta that i had in list. And it was on an aspiring champion that rolled +1 BS from gift of mutation - that was the theme of the lists - everyone possible was blessed with gift of mutation. And yep, the guy hit on a 2 and exploded the landraider. Later on, thousand sons bolter-drilled and finished off the combat squad of vanguard vets in mellee. 4 s6 attacks are nothing to sneeze at. Than they marched forward and tied up a dreadnought for the rest of the game thanks to fearless and 4++.
The conclusion is they're somewhat fine for regular relaxed games. And actually fall in the categorie of being "so bad - they're good". Noone expects them to do anything. And than suddenly this fearless 4++ guyz with a sorcerror happen to kill something valuable or tie up the flank. With 7-th psy phase, +1 dice to deny and a free primaris + perilless 50% cast on one dice, they've become slightly better than before. Clearly, not a tournament-winning choice but 1 mid sized squad of this guyz in a rhino could be fine for providing an unexpected aid and not being too much of a point waste.
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This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/11/05 07:59:21
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 13:18:20
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* worth it.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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Ailaros wrote:ChazSexington wrote:However, I disagree that killing MEQs isn't their niche!
The problem here is that 1ksons are a complicated unit. They don't have just a, one, single special niche they fill.
They're an expensive, but versatile superscoring unit. In a way, you've almost got to think of them as terminators in a 'wing list. If you put terminators in a direct matchup against CSMs with bolters, they would likewise look bad when just comparing their killing power against each other, but, likewise, terminators are a more complex unit than just what their small arms can deliver.
I completely agree they're expensive, but killing MEQs is their main niche and they're not that versatile. They're way too expensive to tarpit, but they do have some added survivability out in the open. Their Aura of Dark Glory and MOT gives them survivability against AP3 stuff, which there's not much of, and 4++ can be gotten through taking cover anyway. Problems with Vespids and Stormtroopers have already been mentioned, so their 4++ is mostly moot.
As was suggested earlier, and confirmed by my maths, if you drop them even closer to MEQs, the MEQs get shredded. Running the same loadout as before, 13.43 dead CSMs by end of turn 3, with the Rubrics taking 6.91 in return. So taking 2 squads of them against MEQs, in Rhinos (as has been mentioned), and just start gunning down their more valuable units to make your Inferno Ammo really count, would be playing to their niche. Add in VoTL (Hatred against SMs) and you've got a CSM unit tailored for slaughtering SMs.
Giving them Soul Blaze seems like a waste of points though, as it's not going to do much against MEQs (3+ and all that). If you're hellbent on using them against DE or IG, take it.
All in all, I'd drop their points by 1, but keep the original squad at the same price.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/11/05 13:29:18
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 13:51:23
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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Isn't the main problem with 1ksons that, if they face anything av11 or more they suddenly do nothing for a ton of points per squad, while the csm have their melta or plasma that deal with vehicles?
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 14:20:54
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Committed Chaos Cult Marine
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Makumba wrote:Isn't the main problem with 1ksons that, if they face anything av11 or more they suddenly do nothing for a ton of points per squad, while the csm have their melta or plasma that deal with vehicles?
Dealing with vehicles is definitely not what you want Rubrics for, true. But it's not what you take them for; you don't take a lascannoned-out Predator to kill Cultists.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 15:59:35
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Decrepit Dakkanaut
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This thread is literally the first time I heard someone call Rubrics versatile. Not even the most obsessed Rubric fans use that word!
In what way are they versatile, again?
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CaptainStabby wrote:If Tyberos falls and needs to catch himself it's because the ground needed killing.
jy2 wrote:BTW, I can't wait to run Double-D-thirsters! Man, just thinking about it gets me Khorney.
vipoid wrote:Indeed - what sort of bastard would want to use their codex?
MarsNZ wrote:ITT: SoB players upset that they're receiving the same condescending treatment that they've doled out in every CSM thread ever. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 16:09:37
Subject: Re:The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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Dealing with vehicles is definitely not what you want Rubrics for, true. But it's not what you take them for; you don't take a lascannoned-out Predator to kill Cultists.
yes, but if 10x1 and 1x5 csm with 3 plasmaguns rubrics kill meq/ geq the same and teq and vehicles better, and they don't cost more then the 1ksons, then the 1ksons make no sense as a unit. 1ksons are like falcons, yes they kill stuff and even have some special rules, but in the end it is just more viable to spam serpents.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 16:14:11
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Killer Klaivex
The dark behind the eyes.
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ChazSexington wrote:
Dealing with vehicles is definitely not what you want Rubrics for, true. But it's not what you take them for; you don't take a lascannoned-out Predator to kill Cultists.
But, this is an edition where your opponent's army can be made up exclusively of vehicles.
So, spending a lot of points on a squad that can only hurt infantry may well seem like a dubious investment (unless, of course, you're lucky enough to have a group that doesn't go in for that kind of crap).
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blood reaper wrote:I will respect human rights and trans people but I will never under any circumstances use the phrase 'folks' or 'ya'll'. I would rather be killed by firing squad.
the_scotsman wrote:Yeah, when i read the small novel that is the Death Guard unit options and think about resolving the attacks from a melee-oriented min size death guard squad, the thing that springs to mind is "Accessible!"
Argive wrote:GW seems to have a crystal ball and just pulls hairbrained ideas out of their backside for the most part.
Andilus Greatsword wrote:
"Prepare to open fire at that towering Wraithknight!"
"ARE YOU DAFT MAN!?! YOU MIGHT HIT THE MEN WHO COME UP TO ITS ANKLES!!!"
Akiasura wrote:I hate to sound like a serial killer, but I'll be reaching for my friend occam's razor yet again.
insaniak wrote:
You're not. If you're worried about your opponent using 'fake' rules, you're having fun the wrong way. This hobby isn't about rules. It's about buying Citadel miniatures.
Please report to your nearest GW store for attitude readjustment. Take your wallet. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2014/11/05 16:21:35
Subject: The Math Behind Why Thousand Sons are (not) bad* and worth it.
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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It could be good if chaos has some realy awesome anti tank units. People stoped playing csm here after the drake nerf and I don't know what FW units they have. Maybe if there are some realy good and cheap anti tank support unit it is possible to run 1ksons.
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