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The parallels are astounding, Guitar Center is much further down a failed path but the decisions and outlook are the same.
"The objective truth is that the growth of the last decade was financed by banking fraud, and that financial trickery of this sort only fools people in the short-term. Eventually, you must have a product people demand, sold by competent people who care about the business, financed in a way that makes sense."
But GW is pubically owned and ultimately accountable to shareholders not a cash milking PE firm.
There is no PE firm running GW and no rumours to state they will be bought by one in any distant future.
I dont quite see the analogy other than "they are both declining".
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/02/04 18:47:43
Dman137 wrote:
goobs is all you guys will ever be
By 1-irt: Still as long as Hissy keeps showing up this is one of the most entertaining threads ever.
"That time I only loaded the cannon with powder. Next time, I will fill it with jewels and diamonds and they will cut you to shrebbons!" - Nogbad the Bad.
No, but there is a substantial equity holder in a position of ultimate power.
The comparison could be drawn.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
However its fair to assume that equity holder isnt actively trying to run Gw into the ground nor milk it as a cash cow to be sold on for some minor profits.
And no bad rules dont = actively running it into the ground
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/02/04 21:02:01
Dman137 wrote:
goobs is all you guys will ever be
By 1-irt: Still as long as Hissy keeps showing up this is one of the most entertaining threads ever.
Kinda does when your company's income revolves around selling a game and the accessories necessary to play it....
It is absolutely NOT fair to assume that it isn't being run as a cash cow however. It's one of the few narratives that really fits, given Kirby is almost at retirement age.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
There are very different levels of cash cows though.
PE fims usually have a single goal in mind, get in for cheap, milk it to death and get out with a slim profit.
Despite Kirby et al, GW is still running as a Games Company. Otherwise they'd have converted their moulds to tuppawear and got out years ago.
Dman137 wrote:
goobs is all you guys will ever be
By 1-irt: Still as long as Hissy keeps showing up this is one of the most entertaining threads ever.
Yeah, I guess that's the contrast between a PE firm with the resources that they likely command and one individual who found himself in the right place at the right time and decided to extract as much as possible from the situation.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
As much as I hate GW I don't think the two situations are even close to the same. Two reasons:
1) GW's problems are primarily the result of high prices combined with declining quality in a market where their competition is not making the same mistakes. Guitar Center's problem is bad finances arranged by people who don't care if a company goes bankrupt as long as they make short-term profit on the deal. They owe too much money and now the market is losing faith in their ability to ever repay those debts. GW, on the other hand, doesn't have this problem. They don't owe tons of money, they make a profit every year, and there's no sign that they're going to suddenly find themselves in a financial crisis. GW's future looks more like a steady decline in market share rather than an overnight collapse.
2) GW has valuable IP and its own product lines that a potential buyer might be interested in. Guitar Center, on the other hand, is just a retail store with little or no inherent value. They don't make their own products, they don't have any IP besides the store name, and they don't really do anything unique. If they go out of business some other store will sell the things they used to sell and the average customer won't notice any difference. So why even consider buying a company in serious financial trouble when you can just open your own retail store with a fresh start? So it's a lot more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy someone would be interested in saving the company, or at least taking over its IP.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
Peregrine wrote: As much as I hate GW I don't think the two situations are even close to the same. Two reasons:
1) GW's problems are primarily the result of high prices combined with declining quality in a market where their competition is not making the same mistakes. Guitar Center's problem is bad finances arranged by people who don't care if a company goes bankrupt as long as they make short-term profit on the deal. They owe too much money and now the market is losing faith in their ability to ever repay those debts. GW, on the other hand, doesn't have this problem. They don't owe tons of money, they make a profit every year, and there's no sign that they're going to suddenly find themselves in a financial crisis. GW's future looks more like a steady decline in market share rather than an overnight collapse.
2) GW has valuable IP and its own product lines that a potential buyer might be interested in. Guitar Center, on the other hand, is just a retail store with little or no inherent value. They don't make their own products, they don't have any IP besides the store name, and they don't really do anything unique. If they go out of business some other store will sell the things they used to sell and the average customer won't notice any difference. So why even consider buying a company in serious financial trouble when you can just open your own retail store with a fresh start? So it's a lot more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy someone would be interested in saving the company, or at least taking over its IP.
So did Guitar Center. Then they were purchased by a PE after they went public.
Hence Guitar center being much further down the road.
The path GW have started is earily similar.
1. Small company has fantastic idea and marketing, is around forever.
2. Goes public.
3. Sales dip due to changing market conditions.
4. Drastic changes are needed but are ignored.
Steps five and on are where Guitar Center went wrong.
Doom and gloom this is not, it may be the Fender story instead Of Guitar center.
sfshilo wrote: So did Guitar Center. Then they were purchased by a PE after they went public.
Hence Guitar center being much further down the road.
But again, you're assuming that they're on the same road at all. I just gave you two reasons why they aren't.
The path GW have started is earily similar.
Only if you look at it in very superficial terms. GW has been public for most of its existence, and the "drastic changes" required aren't at all the same. The only thing they have in common is that they're both companies that experienced a drop in profit, and that's way too general to draw any useful conclusions from Guitar Center's fate.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
sfshilo wrote: Eventually, you must have a product people demand, sold by competent people who care about the business, financed in a way that makes sense."
GW is fine, for now, but so was Guitar Center.
Mind you I haven't stepped foot in a GC in probably 6 or 7 years now... but when I used to go their somewhat regularly (my younger brother, a drummer was CONSTANTLY heading in for new heads, sticks or pieces of kit) I always got the impression that they had exactly what I had highlighted: a competent and caring staff. Hell, before he passed, the Store Manager, Regional Manager, Percussion section manager and EVERY employee in that store knew my brother by name and by sight. They also knew my parents by name, as they were the prime financiers of my brother's playing . We could seriously spend hours just talking "shop" with the guys who worked there (all the percussion section guys were drummers for bars/pubs or local small time bands, etc), each learning from the other, etc. It got to the point where they were able to time out when we were heading up there, and had the heads my brother used ready and waiting behind the counter, just so they all had more time for shootin' the gak with each other.
If GC has really gone into a decline, AND there's a perception that the staff dont give a rats behind about the store/stuff in the store, etc. then there could be a couple things at work here. Firstly, I think that there's potential that the CEO or the head person changed, and they went with a Home Depot route... Getting rid of the "old timers" with all the expertise, in order to get cheaper know-nothing labor. Secondly, and IMO, more tragic, could be that quite simply, fewer people are picking up instruments and playing them. I know that every year I was in school, music was one of the programs constantly near the top of the list for cuts. In my high school, the one saving grace that kept the music program were all the awards and accolades that the various bands and choirs and orchestras brought through their competitions. (more trophies and recognition brings in more money and such, I guess)
Peregrine wrote: 2) GW has valuable IP and its own product lines that a potential buyer might be interested in. Guitar Center, on the other hand, is just a retail store with little or no inherent value. They don't make their own products, they don't have any IP besides the store name, and they don't really do anything unique. If they go out of business some other store will sell the things they used to sell and the average customer won't notice any difference. So why even consider buying a company in serious financial trouble when you can just open your own retail store with a fresh start? So it's a lot more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy someone would be interested in saving the company, or at least taking over its IP.
Have to disagree with the first part of this one: the value of their IP isn't quite what i'd call valuable. Remember, they operate within a niche within a niche. Part of the value of an IP is public awareness and interest, which gw might have in the uk but everywhere else they're not really known. EG i can talk to anyone about 'dungeons & dragons' and they'll know the name. Same with 'world of warcraft'. Most people i know have never heard of gw, and have less interest (other than me having brought it up). That doesn't strike me as particularly valuable. I think it's more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy they would simply disappear quietly into the night.
Have to disagree with the first part of this one: the value of their IP isn't quite what i'd call valuable. Remember, they operate within a niche within a niche. Part of the value of an IP is public awareness and interest, which gw might have in the uk but everywhere else they're not really known. EG i can talk to anyone about 'dungeons & dragons' and they'll know the name. Same with 'world of warcraft'. Most people i know have never heard of gw, and have less interest (other than me having brought it up). That doesn't strike me as particularly valuable. I think it's more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy they would simply disappear quietly into the night.
I personally think that there is some company out there that would buy up much of GWs IP. At the very least, there's a few companies that I think would give strong consideration to it. IMO, a company like FFG would be among that group that I think would buy or seriously consider buying GWs "stuff" as they already have a hand in the IP through various RPGs and some of the random card/board games. FFG is showing though, that they can't entirely handle the logistics of a product "blowing up" though, since I can't recall the last time my FLGS had X-Wings or Y-Wings (they have a butt load of TIE Fighters, a couple of the Hawk freighter thing, but that's about it) How long has it been since a normal gaming outlet has had the Slave 1, or Millenium Falcon models? BUT, for that hiccup, I will say that FFG does make tight rules, and tight games overall, so if they figured out their logistics, AND had 40k or WHFB, they'd probably surpass many other gaming companies.
Torga_DW wrote: Have to disagree with the first part of this one: the value of their IP isn't quite what i'd call valuable. Remember, they operate within a niche within a niche. Part of the value of an IP is public awareness and interest, which gw might have in the uk but everywhere else they're not really known. EG i can talk to anyone about 'dungeons & dragons' and they'll know the name. Same with 'world of warcraft'. Most people i know have never heard of gw, and have less interest (other than me having brought it up). That doesn't strike me as particularly valuable. I think it's more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy they would simply disappear quietly into the night.
Of course GW's IP isn't all that much compared to business values in general, but within their niche they're still valuable. And remember, GW isn't going to be bought by Walmart or a similar huge company, the most likely buyer would be a company that already has a stake in the tabletop gaming industry and could benefit from GW's IP and product lines. Companies like FFG or WOTC have the ability to make GW's assets a profitable addition to their own business, and that means they'd have to at least be interested in GW if the price is right. Contrast this with a generic retail chain like Guitar Center that has absolutely no value to anyone once it gets into serious financial trouble because it has no unique assets to offer.
Also, I disagree with the idea that GW's IP isn't very well known. The average person might not have ever heard of it, but if you only look at the kind of people who buy tabletop games most of them have at least heard of GW's games. And that's the target market that matters, not some random person whose idea of "gaming" is watching football every weekend.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
Can they afford to buy out another company, though? That's my thing with this "oh someone will buy them out" mentality - who, exactly? A short list would be nice. Hasbro would be on it, they might do it, but then they might look at the books and decide it's too much money/effort/risk to be worth it. As i said, D&D is a household name, GW isn't.
Also, I disagree with the idea that GW's IP isn't very well known. The average person might not have ever heard of it, but if you only look at the kind of people who buy tabletop games most of them have at least heard of GW's games. And that's the target market that matters, not some random person whose idea of "gaming" is watching football every weekend.
Thats the thing about IP strength - the awareness of the average person is what matters, not the fans within the niche-niche. It's not a strong IP, not outside the UK anyways.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/02/05 06:39:33
Peregrine wrote: 2) GW has valuable IP and its own product lines that a potential buyer might be interested in. Guitar Center, on the other hand, is just a retail store with little or no inherent value. They don't make their own products, they don't have any IP besides the store name, and they don't really do anything unique. If they go out of business some other store will sell the things they used to sell and the average customer won't notice any difference. So why even consider buying a company in serious financial trouble when you can just open your own retail store with a fresh start? So it's a lot more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy someone would be interested in saving the company, or at least taking over its IP.
Have to disagree with the first part of this one: the value of their IP isn't quite what i'd call valuable. Remember, they operate within a niche within a niche. Part of the value of an IP is public awareness and interest, which gw might have in the uk but everywhere else they're not really known. EG i can talk to anyone about 'dungeons & dragons' and they'll know the name. Same with 'world of warcraft'. Most people i know have never heard of gw, and have less interest (other than me having brought it up). That doesn't strike me as particularly valuable. I think it's more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy they would simply disappear quietly into the night.
Eh, I wouldn't say it's as famous as DnD, but between Dawn of War, the expansions, DoW 2, 40k SPEHSS MEHREEN, and some of the mobile games, the 40k IP is somewhat known. Granted, people may not know GW or even what the 40k fluff is, but I would say a large amount of video games have probably played or heard of one of these games.
Sadly, the gamers are not necessarily the same market of customers as the miniatures niche.
Torga_DW wrote: Can they afford to buy out another company, though? That's my thing with this "oh someone will buy them out" mentality - who, exactly? A short list would be nice. Hasbro would be on it, they might do it, but then they might look at the books and decide it's too much money/effort/risk to be worth it. As i said, D&D is a household name, GW isn't.
Also, I disagree with the idea that GW's IP isn't very well known. The average person might not have ever heard of it, but if you only look at the kind of people who buy tabletop games most of them have at least heard of GW's games. And that's the target market that matters, not some random person whose idea of "gaming" is watching football every weekend.
Thats the thing about IP strength - the awareness of the average person is what matters, not the fans within the niche-niche. It's not a strong IP, not outside the UK anyways.
Hasbro might, but it would depend on their desire to expand into this type of market. Wizards I would give a large nod too or possibly PP or FFG, although I don't know if the last two would have the capital/desire to buy out GW.
Torga_DW wrote: Can they afford to buy out another company, though? That's my thing with this "oh someone will buy them out" mentality - who, exactly? A short list would be nice. Hasbro would be on it, they might do it, but then they might look at the books and decide it's too much money/effort/risk to be worth it. As i said, D&D is a household name, GW isn't.
Who could buy GW depends on the price to buy GW, and we won't know that until someone decides GW's stock price has dropped low enough to make an offer. And the point isn't that someone will inevitably buy GW, it's that, unlike Guitar Center, GW has inherent value even if the company goes bankrupt and therefore the two situations aren't really comparable.
Thats the thing about IP strength - the awareness of the average person is what matters, not the fans within the niche-niche.
No, the awareness of the average person is not what matters because the average person is not the target market. Who cares if some random non-gamer has heard of 40k? It's not like they're going to be buying it even if they know it exists, because they have no interest at all in tabletop games. The awareness that matters is the awareness among potential customers, and GW has that.
It's not a strong IP, not outside the UK anyways.
Again, I disagree with that. Most people in GW's potential customer pool at least know that GW's games exist. Every MTG player that comes into the card shop sees the display case of space marines, everyone who participates in scifi forums has at least seen someone post about 40k, etc. And among people who play miniatures games awareness of GW's brand is pretty much universal.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
I just don't understand how being known by a small niche of people with a smaller niche being fans/customers leads it to being a strong IP? Unless we're talking about the protectability of the IP in a legal sense, in which case it's still not strong. The only inherent value i see in games workshop is its production equipment.
Torga_DW wrote: Have to disagree with the first part of this one: the value of their IP isn't quite what i'd call valuable. Remember, they operate within a niche within a niche. Part of the value of an IP is public awareness and interest, which gw might have in the uk but everywhere else they're not really known. EG i can talk to anyone about 'dungeons & dragons' and they'll know the name. Same with 'world of warcraft'. Most people i know have never heard of gw, and have less interest (other than me having brought it up). That doesn't strike me as particularly valuable. I think it's more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy they would simply disappear quietly into the night.
Of course GW's IP isn't all that much compared to business values in general, but within their niche they're still valuable. And remember, GW isn't going to be bought by Walmart or a similar huge company, the most likely buyer would be a company that already has a stake in the tabletop gaming industry and could benefit from GW's IP and product lines. Companies like FFG or WOTC have the ability to make GW's assets a profitable addition to their own business, and that means they'd have to at least be interested in GW if the price is right. Contrast this with a generic retail chain like Guitar Center that has absolutely no value to anyone once it gets into serious financial trouble because it has no unique assets to offer.
Also, I disagree with the idea that GW's IP isn't very well known. The average person might not have ever heard of it, but if you only look at the kind of people who buy tabletop games most of them have at least heard of GW's games. And that's the target market that matters, not some random person whose idea of "gaming" is watching football every weekend.
GW's IP is much more than miniatures. If GW went banktrupt, I think it is likely they would actually be bought by SEGA so that they can continue making their Warhammer videogame. Tabletop miniatures may be a niche market, but Warhammer and especially 40k are hardly niche IPs. Most people that play videogames or have a Steam account will at the very least have heard of it. The Dawn of War games especially gave 40k a lot of mainstream exposure.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/02/05 07:23:08
Torga_DW wrote: Have to disagree with the first part of this one: the value of their IP isn't quite what i'd call valuable. Remember, they operate within a niche within a niche. Part of the value of an IP is public awareness and interest, which gw might have in the uk but everywhere else they're not really known. EG i can talk to anyone about 'dungeons & dragons' and they'll know the name. Same with 'world of warcraft'. Most people i know have never heard of gw, and have less interest (other than me having brought it up). That doesn't strike me as particularly valuable. I think it's more likely that if GW was facing bankruptcy they would simply disappear quietly into the night.
Of course GW's IP isn't all that much compared to business values in general, but within their niche they're still valuable. And remember, GW isn't going to be bought by Walmart or a similar huge company, the most likely buyer would be a company that already has a stake in the tabletop gaming industry and could benefit from GW's IP and product lines. Companies like FFG or WOTC have the ability to make GW's assets a profitable addition to their own business, and that means they'd have to at least be interested in GW if the price is right. Contrast this with a generic retail chain like Guitar Center that has absolutely no value to anyone once it gets into serious financial trouble because it has no unique assets to offer.
Also, I disagree with the idea that GW's IP isn't very well known. The average person might not have ever heard of it, but if you only look at the kind of people who buy tabletop games most of them have at least heard of GW's games. And that's the target market that matters, not some random person whose idea of "gaming" is watching football every weekend.
GW's IP is much more than miniatures. If GW went banktrupt, I think it is likely they would actually be bought by SEGA so that they can continue making their Warhammer videogame. Tabletop miniatures may be a niche market, but Warhammer and especially 40k are hardly niche IPs. Most people that play videogames or have a Steam account will at the very least have heard of it. The Dawn of War games especially gave 40k a lot of mainstream exposure.
That might actually be a big win for SEGA. I hear that they're in trouble. With the Warhammer Sci and Fantasy IP's in their portfolio they could milk it for all its worth. Its a rich IP for video games with a large established fan base, and very wide brand recognition. Creative Assembly is working on a Warhammer Total War.
Torga_DW wrote: I just don't understand how being known by a small niche of people with a smaller niche being fans/customers leads it to being a strong IP? Unless we're talking about the protectability of the IP in a legal sense, in which case it's still not strong. The only inherent value i see in games workshop is its production equipment.
It's valuable for two reasons:
1) If you're another company in GW's niche it represents a huge increase in the value of your company. The entire value 40k might be a rounding error in Walmart's annual sales, but for FFG it would be a massive increase in market share followed by a massive increase in profit if they can manage the IP properly. GW's IP doesn't need to get attention from the biggest "mainstream" companies to find a buyer.
2) The IP is more than just a few plastic model kits and some rulebooks that aren't worth the paper they're printed on. It's a huge and well-established fictional universe that happens to have a product line attached to it already. The books are a profitable side business with a solid presence in "mainstream" bookstores, there's an established video game series waiting for a sequel once the licensing rights are dealt with, etc. And despite GW's best efforts to throw it away they still have a majority of the market share in the tabletop industry, so any buyer would instantly have ownership of that market advantage and a big head start over the competition. If you're interested in the miniatures niche then you'd be absolutely insane to ignore that kind of opportunity if the price is right.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
FFG would not be buying GW. FFG is about 1/5th the size of GW. Yes, they now have massive financial backing from Asmodée Éditions, but it would be far more likely that they would become a brand of Asmodée Éditions rather than FFG buying them. IF they went that far, and given that GW are still making a profit and they have no debt, they are not a bankruptcy risk. They do seem to be, accounting wise, a well run company. Sales, marketing, products, PR etc is a different matter.
Profits may be down, but they are nothing like most companies that go bust. They have little debt, their liabilities seem manageable and they own much of their own facilities. The biggest risk they have is the shops with the rent, but since they keep retail, PLC and manufacturing as separate entities GW retail may go bust but its unlikely to take the rest of the company with it. They are in a prime position to re-structure if they need to rather than go bust.
Having said all of this, their IP is valuable. It is as well known as many major game franchises. They have sections of books in major bookshops, multiple games, many of which have sold very well. Many people may not know who GW are but they will know warhammer. To say the IP is not valuable is silly. They are as well known as brands like Zelda or Metal Gear. They are better know than brands like X-Men or the Avengers were before the films. My mother wouldn't have a clue about any of them, but your average gamer/geek/nerd would at least know the name.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/02/05 13:29:04
insaniak wrote: Sometimes, Exterminatus is the only option.
And sometimes, it's just a case of too much scotch combined with too many buttons...
sfshilo wrote: ...The objective truth is that the growth of the last decade was financed by banking fraud...
Remind me again how this applies to Games Workshop?
A public company's auditors scrutinize the financial statements more so than for a private company (Guitar Center). I believe our financial reporting checklist for a private company was around 100 pages but a private company was well over twice as long. Also, you can get JimBob, CPA to do a private company's audit but for a public company, share holders prefer Big 4 and depending on the size of the company the next largest (Grant, McG, BDO, Crowe, etc).
. We could seriously spend hours just talking "shop" with the guys who worked there (all the percussion section guys were drummers for bars/pubs or local small time bands, etc), each learning from the other, etc. It got to the point where they were able to time out when we were heading up there, and had the heads my brother used ready and waiting behind the counter, just so they all had more time for shootin' the gak with each other.
~1.5k
