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"I still think the IP is a bit overrated by the fans"
Fans have this idea that GW should fail so that someone else can pick up the IP (or the company as a whole) because it's such an awesome IP that surely someone would snap it up and turn it around.
I tend to disagree and think fans overestimate the value of the 40k to other companies. Even if they are the biggest fish in the wargaming world, they aren't a big fish in the wider picture of available IP's. Even The Witcher 3 sold many times more copies than GW has active customers, by at least an order of magnitude.
It is an awesome IP, it's only rivalled in depth by the big hitters like Trek and Wars, LotR and the MCU movies. Warhammer in both its guises (although biased heavily towards 40K) is way deeper than whatever tween trilogy that the kids are foaming over the latest movie adaptation of.
I think you're right in that perhaps some overvalue its worth in the sense of what it would cost to buy right now, but there's a line to be drawn between what Warhammer is and what it could be. The marketing potential has massive scope, just Space Marines alone (which, to be fair, is the spine of any 40K value) could carry all sorts of diversification.
The question is always would we like what a new owner of Warhammer decided to do with it, of course, and that's something we can only speculate about unless it happened.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Fans have this idea that GW should fail so that someone else can pick up the IP (or the company as a whole) because it's such an awesome IP that surely someone would snap it up and turn it around.
If the price was right GW would be snapped up very quickly. Would someone pay £500 million for GW? Not a chance. £100 million? Maybe. £10 million? It would be an absolute bloodbath. Its inconceivable that GW's IP would be allowed to die, its just too valuable.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: Lets just be clear, the vast majority of "sheer volume" are just cheap throw away games that don't have the budget/quality/scope of the older THQ games like DoW or Space Marine.
Most have been shovelware but not all. Thats not really the point though; people are still willing to buy licenses from GW, including Creative Assembly.
Games Workshop is not a household name. If you parcel the Western World down into a "gamer" subset, you might get to more than 50% knowing who they feth they are. If you parcel the "gamer" subset to "tabletop miniatures", then you're probably pushing 80%. In the "gamer" subset, I know people that have played D&D since 2nd edition who didn't have a fething clue who Games Workshop was.
Saying GW is a household name is just silly.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/06/10 17:30:32
In the US, probably. In the UK not really. In the UK its common, in my experience at least, for women in their 50's to be at least aware of Games Workshop, I think that qualifies as a household name. After all there is, or at least was, a GW on most high streets.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/06/10 17:34:27
Silent Puffin? wrote: Its inconceivable that GW's IP would be allowed to die, its just too valuable.
I definitely don't mean to say it definitely won't be picked up, but I also definitely don't think it's as inevitable as many other fans seem to think. Especially as GW have milked the core game of 40k so much now. A few years ago I might have agreed.
At this stage IMO the core game of 40k is a burden more than it is benefit for new companies and likewise I think a large slab of 40k's market share is due to their stores which would also be a huge burden on someone looking to take over GW.
If there's value in 40k (and I'm not saying there's *none*) I think it'd be more in offshoot games like FFG is producing than in maintaining and supporting the core game.
Most have been shovelware but not all. Thats not really the point though; people are still willing to buy licenses from GW, including Creative Assembly.
That's a largely irrelevant statement unless we know the agreement between GW and Creative Assembly and/or the actual development resources Creative Assembly is putting in to the game.
Games Workshop is not a household name. If you parcel the Western World down into a "gamer" subset, you might get to more than 50% knowing who they feth they are. If you parcel the "gamer" subset to "tabletop miniatures", then you're probably pushing 80%. In the "gamer" subset, I know people that have played D&D since 2nd edition who didn't have a fething clue who Games Workshop was.
Saying GW is a household name is just silly.
In the UK, Games Workshop was the largest high street games shop chain for RPGs and stuff, and also the biggest publisher of rules and games, between the late 70s and the mid-90s after which it gradually became the Warhammer-only shop we all know and love now. There was also the White Dwarf magazine, which followed a similar path of glory or degradation depending on your viewpoint.
So there is a substantial awareness of GW but not actually in the form it has now assumed.
I don't think this helps them at all, though. Any nostalgic ex-GW games fan stepping into a shop now to introduce his son to the delights of Judge Dredd, Talisman, Runequest, Space Hulk, BFG or boxes of Space Marines costing less than £1 a figure is confronted with a desert landscape of almost zero games surrounded by a tall barrier of price stickers.
It isn't Coke, The BBC, Ford or anything on that scale. It's near total saturation amongst enthusiasts, it's well known enough thanks to its High St presence in the UK to have a respectable recognition amongst people who walk around with eyes, but it isn't a household name.
However, I do believe it's got the legs to become a household name, should the decision be made to do so and intelligent choices made.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
I really don't think so. 'Almost a household name' is really stretching it.
Everyone that I have mentioned wargaming to over recent years has at least been vaguely aware of Games Workshop, and that includes various female colleagues in their 50s. In fact the only person who didn't have a clue was from Zimbabwe. In the UK at least GW is a household name (or very close to it). GW has even found its way onto mainstream television (usually as a joke but at least people are expected to know whats funny).
Thats not really the point though; in the 'young(ish) and geeky' demographic 40k has a lot of weight.
Anecdotal evidence. Means less than you think.
There's five people in my work who are aware, or played the game-only two of us are current players. Another dozen know what we do, and that's from us talking about it. The other eighty? We might as well be talking Dutch.
I'd say one person in ten is aware of games workshop and less than half of them would know what it's all about. Talk about the football, and you find where most people's interests lie.
In the UK, Games Workshop was the largest high street games shop chain for RPGs and stuff, and also the biggest publisher of rules and games, between the late 70s and the mid-90s after which it gradually became the Warhammer-only shop we all know and love now. There was also the White Dwarf magazine, which followed a similar path of glory or degradation depending on your viewpoint.
And the gaming market in the eighties and nineties was quite small. Being the biggest high street games shop for RPGs and stuff means very little when the player base is in the five-figure range...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/06/10 17:50:34
In my experience it is though. All kinds of people who are entirely unaware of wargamings existence know at least roughly what GW is. GW has a lot of brand recognition in the UK, its probably not far behind D&D.
Being the biggest high street games shop for RPGs and stuff means very little when the player base is in the five-figure range...
Every town of any size in the UK has, or at least had, a GW in a prominent location. They don't need to have any interest in it to know what it is.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/06/10 17:55:18
Everyone knows the games and wargames markets have been expanding significantly in the past ten years.
The old style GW was ideally placed to capitalise on this; locations, tradition, range of stock, and familiarity to the people in the know who recruit new players by word of mouth. Not the new one.
Even the name is a great match, and they are dumping that too!
In my experience it is though. All kinds of people who are entirely unaware of wargamings existence know at least roughly what GW is. GW has a lot of brand recognition in the UK, its probably not far behind D&D.
Sadly, your experience won't really count for much in this instance. It would take a proper, scientifically valid, survey to prove it, but frankly I don't need one to understand that my gut reaction is likely the correct one.
It's unquestionably the most recognisable brand in Tabletop Gaming, far more non-gamers will know GW in comparison to the likes of PP, Corvus Belli, FFG etc, but it is nowhere near as recognisable as Cadburys, Sony, Ferrari, Apple etc.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/06/10 18:17:01
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Guildsman wrote: Household name? Every male in the West under 30? You're kidding me. Here in the U.S., I've barely met anyone who knows about tabletop wargaming at all, let alone GW. There's probably a significant segment of nerds who haven't heard of it. D&D and Pokemon are household names. Magic is too, to a lesser degree. Unless you've been in an FLGS or have a sibling or parent who's involved, you've more than likely never heard of Warhammer.
People who think that GW is a "household name" really don't have an understanding of what that term means.
That term refers to "a person or thing who is well known to the public."
As such, if someone's "heard of it," that doesn't qualify. Those people have to "know it well."
International household names are things like Coca Cola, Apple, IBM, Jaguar, BMW, or Harvard University. You can have regional household names like the local university hospital, the local community college, or local government figure. I honestly doubt that Games Workshop is a true household name outside of Nottingham. Other than there, I'm sure there are a lot of people in England who have heard of Games Workshop, but they don't really know much of anything about the company or their products.
Outside of England, Games Workshop is a niche product that appeals to a minority of the overall number of gamers. There are more players of computer games, for starters. There are more CCG players than GW players. Heck, I'd argue that there are more pen and paper RPG players than GW players. And gamers as a whole are a minority of all people. Honestly, to assert that Games Workshop is a household name "in the West" is pure fantasy.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Howard A Treesong wrote: Investors are happy as long as GW keep paying out. The last dividend they declined resulted in a drastic drop in stock value. No one seems interested in the long term, only from one report to the next and will drop them like a hot potato once they aren't in a position to keep paying out.
This.
As long as GW keeps paying a dividend, there are entities that will value the stock simply for that. (Though, I'm not sure why they think the value is "charging" anywhere...it's under $10.00 USD per share and has been for several years now. Right now, it's trading at 500p, or $7.73.)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/06/10 18:22:25
doktor_g wrote: This is from the Motley Fool UK site. From an article dated May 22. Discuss.
Games Workshop Group
Goblin emporium Games Workshop (LSE: GAW) is one of the leading chargers in Friday trade and was recently up 3.6% on the day. And with good reason, in my opinion, as the gamesmaker’s painful cost-cutting measures paves the way for solid earnings growth. The company’s products have a fierce following amongst fantasy lovers the world over, and with Games Workshop stepping up new product roll-outs I reckon the stage is set for revenues to gallop higher.
This view is shared by the City, and analysts expect the business to follow an 8% earnings rise in the year concluding May 2015 with extra advances in the region of 6% and 5% in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Consequently Games Workshop changes hands on a P/E rating of 12.4 times for the forthcoming year — comfortably below the value threshold of 15 times — and which drops to 11.8 times in 2017.
But it is in the dividend stakes where the niche gamebuilder really sets itself apart, and Games Workshop’s terrific cash generation is expected to drive an estimated payment of 32p per share for fiscal 2015 to 35p in 2016, and again to 40p the following year. As a result the company boasts enormous yields of 6.9% and 7.8% for 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Got a link?
Tried looking for "Games Workshop" on the site search and they've got nothing listed since last year.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
I agree, that's what makes the Space Hulk limited edition so stupid. Lots of nostalgic gamers going into GW stores after 20 years to give Space Hulk a go only to be told it's sold out and not coming back.
Nostalgia has an impact, sure, but obviously not enough as most of the ex-gamers are still ex-gamers.
Would they be gamers if they could have bought that copy of Space Hulk? The barrier of entry for GWs games is far, far too high, very few people want to spend hundreds of pounds to paint dozens and dozens of models to play a game they enjoyed a decade ago.
They might do, but without the gateway we'd never know. They'd likely come back and buy each specialist game re-release even if they didn't get into the wider hobby.
I mean, I'd totally buy a re-released Blood Bowl or Hero Quest if they brought them out. I've got a 2014 Space Hulk in the cupboard, bought for nostalgia sake, because I happened to know it was coming and managed to pre-order it.
I agree, that's what makes the Space Hulk limited edition so stupid. Lots of nostalgic gamers going into GW stores after 20 years to give Space Hulk a go only to be told it's sold out and not coming back.
Nostalgia has an impact, sure, but obviously not enough as most of the ex-gamers are still ex-gamers.
Would they be gamers if they could have bought that copy of Space Hulk? The barrier of entry for GWs games is far, far too high, very few people want to spend hundreds of pounds to paint dozens and dozens of models to play a game they enjoyed a decade ago.
They might do, but without the gateway we'd never know. They'd likely come back and buy each specialist game re-release even if they didn't get into the wider hobby.
I mean, I'd totally buy a re-released Blood Bowl or Hero Quest if they brought them out. I've got a 2014 Space Hulk in the cupboard, bought for nostalgia sake, because I happened to know it was coming and managed to pre-order it.
You do know that there is another Heroquest coming right? From a company called Gamezone.
I think you're right in that perhaps some overvalue its worth in the sense of what it would cost to buy right now, but there's a line to be drawn between what Warhammer is and what it could be. The marketing potential has massive scope, just Space Marines alone (which, to be fair, is the spine of any 40K value) could carry all sorts of diversification.
The question is always would we like what a new owner of Warhammer decided to do with it, of course, and that's something we can only speculate about unless it happened.
I'm not sure there's anything so unique to Warhammer that you'd need to buy the license rather than just create your own distopian future with bio-engineered supersoldiers fighting various space monsters.
There's some buy in from the name, but you'd probably be better starting from scratch using some of the bigger sci-fi worlds as you're starting point.
Which has already been snatched up. If the Halo space combat game goes well, we may see more licensed games in the future.
I'm definitely not convinced that 40K really has that much value as an IP outside of the tabletop community. A couple novel series and a few moderately successful video games doesn't make for a hugely desirable IP. If it does get picked up, it'll be like D&D, where a long-time fan in a position of power was able to step in and save the game.
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." -Napoleon
I think you're right in that perhaps some overvalue its worth in the sense of what it would cost to buy right now, but there's a line to be drawn between what Warhammer is and what it could be. The marketing potential has massive scope, just Space Marines alone (which, to be fair, is the spine of any 40K value) could carry all sorts of diversification.
The question is always would we like what a new owner of Warhammer decided to do with it, of course, and that's something we can only speculate about unless it happened.
I'm not sure there's anything so unique to Warhammer that you'd need to buy the license rather than just create your own distopian future with bio-engineered supersoldiers fighting various space monsters.
There's some buy in from the name, but you'd probably be better starting from scratch using some of the bigger sci-fi worlds as you're starting point.
That's much more of a roll of the dice though, no pun intended.
Many of Jes Goodwin's designs, Marines included, are exceptional, plus the background has at least something approaching a fan base and some semblance of public recognition.
That's an awful lot more traction to get going than a standing start and an unproven concept.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
That's an awful lot more traction to get going than a standing start and an unproven concept.
You'd get an awful lot of bad to go with the good if you brought the IP though. For every 3rd war for Armageddon there is a Murderfang murdering with his murderclaws on planet (h)Omicide.
I know just from looking at the RPG books that trimming the stupid fanfiction esque fluff from the good stuff is a daunting task, and not everyone will agree on what should stay and what should go so the decision often ends up change nothing so no one can complain that they want to play a centuion, but then everyone loses interest and plays D&D instead.
Fafnir wrote: Oh, I certainly vote with my dollar, but the problem is that that is not enough. The problem with the 'vote with your dollar' response is that it doesn't take into account why we're not buying the product. I want to enjoy 40k enough to buy back in. It was my introduction to traditional games, and there was a time when I enjoyed it very much. I want to buy 40k, but Gamesworkshop is doing their very best to push me away, and simply not buying their product won't tell them that.
The bad is irrelevant if you're talking about expansion, the people who know about it will ultimately reflect a tiny portion of the market you're shooting for, and those who have a problem with it (those outside the 14 yo pew pew crowd) will be a smaller subdivision of that.
No, at this point i still believe the IP has real potential, I even believe that correctly handled the game could be turned around massively in very short order.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
That's an awful lot more traction to get going than a standing start and an unproven concept.
You'd get an awful lot of bad to go with the good if you brought the IP though. For every 3rd war for Armageddon there is a Murderfang murdering with his murderclaws on planet (h)Omicide.
I know just from looking at the RPG books that trimming the stupid fanfiction esque fluff from the good stuff is a daunting task, and not everyone will agree on what should stay and what should go so the decision often ends up change nothing so no one can complain that they want to play a centuion, but then everyone loses interest and plays D&D instead.
That has to be the funniest thing I have seen this month (maybe this year - I will have to go back and check)
. . .there is a Murderfang murdering with his murderclaws on planet (h)Omicide.
THAT was priceless...
And sad at the same time, because it is pretty much true.
MB
Automatically Appended Next Post: And I agree with Azreal.
The 40K IP could produce some of the best gaming material ever produced.
I should probably think about how to capitalize on that...
MB
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/06/11 03:18:53
lord marcus wrote:how is the core game a burden? if they take over the IP, they will most likely buy the molds, meaning maintaining the core game is irrelevant.
The game is *huge* now as far as the range is concerned and it's profitability in GW's hands is largely driven by new releases every month and the size of the community base is in large part driven by the stores which no longer have good turnover.
Fixing the actual "game" part of it would actually be quite difficult given what 40k has become. Shrinking the game or reducing the scope would be what a lot of old gamers would like, but then a lot of current gamers wouldn't want that.
It's not a game you can just sit on and expect it to make you money and I think a lot of the ideas for fixing things that would have worked several years ago wouldn't work now, and even less likely in a few years time when GW has milked the IP to the point where they want to (or have to) sell it.
BeAfraid wrote:. . .there is a Murderfang murdering with his murderclaws on planet (h)Omicide.
THAT was priceless...
And sad at the same time, because it is pretty much true.
It's not "pretty much" true, it's ENTIRELY true. In fact you left out the part about Murderfangs Murderlust which he achieves through his Murderclaws on the planet of Omnicide. Not to mention they gave it a head that looks remarkably similar to the character Murderface...
AllSeeingSkink wrote: . Not to mention they gave it a head that looks remarkably similar to the character Murderface...
That would be a coincidence. GW's designers don't have any outside influences... Everything they make comes completely out of their own heads. They said so in court, so it's true.
I agree, that's what makes the Space Hulk limited edition so stupid. Lots of nostalgic gamers going into GW stores after 20 years to give Space Hulk a go only to be told it's sold out and not coming back.
Nostalgia has an impact, sure, but obviously not enough as most of the ex-gamers are still ex-gamers.
Would they be gamers if they could have bought that copy of Space Hulk? The barrier of entry for GWs games is far, far too high, very few people want to spend hundreds of pounds to paint dozens and dozens of models to play a game they enjoyed a decade ago.
They might do, but without the gateway we'd never know. They'd likely come back and buy each specialist game re-release even if they didn't get into the wider hobby.
I mean, I'd totally buy a re-released Blood Bowl or Hero Quest if they brought them out. I've got a 2014 Space Hulk in the cupboard, bought for nostalgia sake, because I happened to know it was coming and managed to pre-order it.
You do know that there is another Heroquest coming right? From a company called Gamezone.
And it looks bloody fantastic..
I still find it hilarious that Gamezone snapped the rights up.
Cannot wait to add that to my growing Boardgame collection.
You do know that there is another Heroquest coming right? From a company called Gamezone.
And it looks bloody fantastic..
Yup, and I'll be snapping that box up as soon as it hits retail.
Azreal13 wrote: The bad is irrelevant if you're talking about expansion, the people who know about it will ultimately reflect a tiny portion of the market you're shooting for, and those who have a problem with it (those outside the 14 yo pew pew crowd) will be a smaller subdivision of that.
If the people that already know about the IP are a tiny portion of your market, then that's not a great reason to buy it. GW's IP has some recognition (mostly positive but with plenty of negative) but that seems to mostly be with people who have been put off from GW. Is that recognition worth, say, £10m? Would it be better to use the same £10m to expand on something like Heinleins Starship troopers IP? Or one of HG Wells settings? Or something from 2000AD?
For £10m, you could easily construct a totally legal not-40K almost in its entirety, without having to take on any of it's baggage or retconning. You'd have to change the names and words but the concepts already exist out there.
& 
