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At my FLGS there is a small, but dedicated group of 40k players. Unfortunately for me they don't show up that often, making it hard to get games in. So is 40k dying? No. But it's certainly not doing great.

My area had a GW--sorry, Warhammer store open up recently so... I'm not sure. I haven't been there yet (might go this weekend, since I've never been inside a "real" GW shop before). There's another store that has a 40k community after one shop closed up last year, but the other shops in the area tend to focus more on Warmachine (which is good because I play Warmachine currently).

 Tinkrr wrote:

 pumpinchimp wrote:
Nah, there are loads of "Getting started" topics on here and reddit all the time.

Eh, those threads are a very bad way to base your statistics of how the game is going. Yes, many people are starting, but this isn't like other games where you just dive in, you have to do a lot of work just to get to the play part of it, and how many of those people drop out long before that point?

Let me put it this way, I just returned to the game and I won't have an army ready to go for almost a year after I've started back due to how long it takes to paint, now how many people will drop out in that year? Let's add a little to this puzzle, my friend and I got back into the game at the same time, he's already given up and I'm going glacially slow, while I know multiple people who started and quit simply because there isn't a big 40k scene near Boston, and it's been dwindling each year.

With the investment time of getting an army ready, 40k needs substantially more players joining than leaving each year, just to stay stable. Growth is another issue altogether.

Yes there is...

I live in Boston...

Pandemonium in Cambridge, battleground games on the south Shore, you soldier in the north shore..

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Tinkrr wrote:

 pumpinchimp wrote:
Nah, there are loads of "Getting started" topics on here and reddit all the time.

Eh, those threads are a very bad way to base your statistics of how the game is going. Yes, many people are starting, but this isn't like other games where you just dive in, you have to do a lot of work just to get to the play part of it, and how many of those people drop out long before that point?

Let me put it this way, I just returned to the game and I won't have an army ready to go for almost a year after I've started back due to how long it takes to paint, now how many people will drop out in that year? Let's add a little to this puzzle, my friend and I got back into the game at the same time, he's already given up and I'm going glacially slow, while I know multiple people who started and quit simply because there isn't a big 40k scene near Boston, and it's been dwindling each year.

With the investment time of getting an army ready, 40k needs substantially more players joining than leaving each year, just to stay stable. Growth is another issue altogether.

Yes there is...

I live in Boston...

Pandemonium in Cambridge, battleground games on the south Shore, you soldier in the north shore..

I've heard on multiple occasions that Panda is a dwindling community for 40k, and that a lot more of it is shifting towards NH. Haven't heard a word about those other two stores from about a dozen or so people who play or have played 40k in recent history, so can't make any opinion on those.

Though TTA did close and it was trying to foster a 40k community that didn't do too well.

Edit: Most people don't even bring 40k stock to conventions as it just doesn't do well, maybe at Connecticon but even then it's so-so.

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:
I notice TONS of people quitting, and Dakka is at an all time low from an activity standpoint it seems...

You're going to get tons of anecdotal evidence. There will be people leaving and starting all the time.

However, in my experience, yes, its dying, we have turnouts that are a third of what they were for events in 4E and 5E locally. People were asking if Fantasy was dying and there were people ardently denying it even after it was very clearly dead, much like AoS now, you have people fervently saying it's going strong, when major independents are dumping it and starter sets can be had for firesale, at-cost prices that you could never have found for previous starter sets.

Looking at GW financial data, their revenue is declining every single year, particularly adjusted for inflation, and has been since 2004.


I would say that, even if 40k isn't "dying", it's contracting. To my eyes, it's following much the same path as fantasy. I know my local store isn't moving the volume of product it used to, that's for sure.

This is something people need to understand, 40k needs more people joining than leaving, to stay at a stable player base because of how much time it takes to build an army in comparison to the instantaneous nature of quitting.

The statements of Rick Priestley are not very promising:
- Creativity is lacking in the creativity department.
- GW is a miniature producing company for collectors.
The gaming aspect vanishes more and more in the background.
This is the wrong way to go but the road is paved by issueing crappy rule sets.

Looking at GW financial data, their revenue is declining every single year, particularly adjusted for inflation, and has been since 2004.

This is what tells me (and has been telling me for years) that it's dying. All anecdotal evidence aside, one way or another, the hard numbers reported by GW are evidence of a steady decline in the number of players.

 Psienesis wrote:

Looking at GW financial data, their revenue is declining every single year, particularly adjusted for inflation, and has been since 2004.

This is what tells me (and has been telling me for years) that it's dying. All anecdotal evidence aside, one way or another, the hard numbers reported by GW are evidence of a steady decline in the number of players.

Let's wait for the next half year report by January 12, 2016.
It incorporates sales up to November 29, 2015.

Again? Why? Do we expect it to be significantly better than the 2014-2015 half-year results report? Or the 2013-2014 half-year report?

The 2015 annual report sure doesn't look good, either.

 Psienesis wrote:
Again? Why? Do we expect it to be significantly better than the 2014-2015 half-year results report? Or the 2013-2014 half-year report?

The 2015 annual report sure doesn't look good, either.

Well, don't know.
The sales of the AoS starter set and subsequent products belong to this period. Now AoS seems to be largerly dead but this will hardly be reflected.

My point being, a single report, even if it shows positive gains, doesn't mean anything, not when the reports over the last several years have all been trending downwards. Two good quarters does not make up for 16 bad ones if such gains cannot be sustained.

If GW is going to pull itself out of its death-spiral, it is going to need to start trending upwards, and continue trending upwards, quarter after quarter, year after year. These gains do not need to be massive, 50% increases in total sales or something of the sort, of course. Even a 2% uptick, sustained, quarter after quarter, indicates a growing market, a growing customer base.

Its not dying but it is much worse off. A lot of people are leaving gw as their reports show each year. 40K wont just disappear but it will get smaller and smaller unless GW fix it

The health of 40K can be judged partly by the sales statistics.

If sales are falling -- and they have been -- it doesn't mean the game is dying, but it would be a lot healthier if sales were growing.

 Motograter wrote:
Its not dying but it is much worse off. A lot of people are leaving gw as their reports show each year. 40K wont just disappear but it will get smaller and smaller unless GW fix it

Okay if you say so.
I guess UK has a much different GW community as in the rest of Europe.
GW is not very popular here.

Given that GW is a UK company and enjoys a much higher degree of "man on the street" name recognition there than it does anywhere else in the world, that would not surprise me in the slightest.

 Tinkrr wrote:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

 Tinkrr wrote:

 pumpinchimp wrote:
Nah, there are loads of "Getting started" topics on here and reddit all the time.

Eh, those threads are a very bad way to base your statistics of how the game is going. Yes, many people are starting, but this isn't like other games where you just dive in, you have to do a lot of work just to get to the play part of it, and how many of those people drop out long before that point?

Let me put it this way, I just returned to the game and I won't have an army ready to go for almost a year after I've started back due to how long it takes to paint, now how many people will drop out in that year? Let's add a little to this puzzle, my friend and I got back into the game at the same time, he's already given up and I'm going glacially slow, while I know multiple people who started and quit simply because there isn't a big 40k scene near Boston, and it's been dwindling each year.

With the investment time of getting an army ready, 40k needs substantially more players joining than leaving each year, just to stay stable. Growth is another issue altogether.

Yes there is...

I live in Boston...

Pandemonium in Cambridge, battleground games on the south Shore, you soldier in the north shore..

I've heard on multiple occasions that Panda is a dwindling community for 40k, and that a lot more of it is shifting towards NH. Haven't heard a word about those other two stores from about a dozen or so people who play or have played 40k in recent history, so can't make any opinion on those.

Though TTA did close and it was trying to foster a 40k community that didn't do too well.

Edit: Most people don't even bring 40k stock to conventions as it just doesn't do well, maybe at Connecticon but even then it's so-so.

Where about I'm mass are you? Maybe we could get a game in.

If you wanna pm me your Facebook I can add you to a very active group. They're a secret group on FB

 Psienesis wrote:
Given that GW is a UK company and enjoys a much higher degree of "man on the street" name recognition there than it does anywhere else in the world, that would not surprise me in the slightest.

Even in the UK I think GW is declining.
There was a time when the GW retail empire had crushed all the independents. Now, there's a growing amount of independent shops initially supported by Magic organised play, and more recently FFG's Star Wars games organised play.

It's plain less people are playing 40K. Sales are down year on year. Tournament attendance is down. Less people are talking about the game - posts on the major 40k forums are all down.
Most of the stuff announced this year - AoS, Plastic HH, Specialist Games etc isn't going to change things. They're trying to appeal to the customers left behind, and slow the death spiral as much as possible.

I wonder if GW is actually interested in attracting new miniature buying customers any more ?
Marvel for example doesn't really sell that many comics. It's IPs in TV, film and merchandising are far more profitable for them.
GW have been trying to protect their IP as much as possible, but don't seem to have done much with it outside of the odd mobile game. Perhaps no one is really interested in their IP either ?

Bartali wrote:

 Psienesis wrote:
Given that GW is a UK company and enjoys a much higher degree of "man on the street" name recognition there than it does anywhere else in the world, that would not surprise me in the slightest.

Even in the UK I think GW is declining.
There was a time when the GW retail empire had crushed all the independents. Now, there's a growing amount of independent shops initially supported by Magic organised play, and more recently FFG's Star Wars games organised play.

It's plain less people are playing 40K. Sales are down year on year. Tournament attendance is down. Less people are talking about the game - posts on the major 40k forums are all down.
Most of the stuff announced this year - AoS, Plastic HH, Specialist Games etc isn't going to change things. They're trying to appeal to the customers left behind, and slow the death spiral as much as possible.

I wonder if GW is actually interested in attracting new miniature buying customers any more ?
Marvel for example doesn't really sell that many comics. It's IPs in TV, film and merchandising are far more profitable for them.
GW have been trying to protect their IP as much as possible, but don't seem to have done much with it outside of the odd mobile game. Perhaps no one is really interested in their IP either ?

So when they fold, no one will pick up the IP, and our models will be useless?!

I though they had good sales in UK. I think the dieing aspect is made a bit over the top, by people. Sure in some places, like for example where I play, the game is stagnant and it may even die in places where there is no shops or clubs near by. But it seems, to me at least, that it is still doing ok in some parts of the world. It sure isn't at the level WFB was, even if some armies are starting to have an entry cost just as bad as some WFB armies.

I can only speak of the smallish area I play at. I attended an 18 player, 1 day event in Colombia, SC and then a 34 player, 1 day event in Aberdeen, NC. For what is essentially an RTT, those are good showings. I typically will game on a Saturday, and the FLGS will have 3-4 tables where 40K is played and a few folks hovering around the tables discussing 40K.

So, from my perspective, 40K is doing just fine.

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

Bartali wrote:

 Psienesis wrote:
Given that GW is a UK company and enjoys a much higher degree of "man on the street" name recognition there than it does anywhere else in the world, that would not surprise me in the slightest.

Even in the UK I think GW is declining.
There was a time when the GW retail empire had crushed all the independents. Now, there's a growing amount of independent shops initially supported by Magic organised play, and more recently FFG's Star Wars games organised play.

It's plain less people are playing 40K. Sales are down year on year. Tournament attendance is down. Less people are talking about the game - posts on the major 40k forums are all down.
Most of the stuff announced this year - AoS, Plastic HH, Specialist Games etc isn't going to change things. They're trying to appeal to the customers left behind, and slow the death spiral as much as possible.

I wonder if GW is actually interested in attracting new miniature buying customers any more ?
Marvel for example doesn't really sell that many comics. It's IPs in TV, film and merchandising are far more profitable for them.
GW have been trying to protect their IP as much as possible, but don't seem to have done much with it outside of the odd mobile game. Perhaps no one is really interested in their IP either ?

So when they fold, no one will pick up the IP, and our models will be useless?!

Useless in the sense that there will be no official support for the game, yes. Fan-written content will probably continue to exist for another fifty years or more, but that will be basically fragmented groups of players playing their own, home-baked versions of the game.

If GW goes under, I expect that someone will buy the rights to the IP. However, I expect that "someone" to be someone like Zenimax, Electronic Arts, Sega, Sony or some other company interested in the IP as a source for video games and other digital entertainments, not as a tabletop wargame played with plastic soldiers.

 Psienesis wrote:

 Dalymiddleboro wrote:

Bartali wrote:

 Psienesis wrote:
Given that GW is a UK company and enjoys a much higher degree of "man on the street" name recognition there than it does anywhere else in the world, that would not surprise me in the slightest.

Even in the UK I think GW is declining.
There was a time when the GW retail empire had crushed all the independents. Now, there's a growing amount of independent shops initially supported by Magic organised play, and more recently FFG's Star Wars games organised play.

It's plain less people are playing 40K. Sales are down year on year. Tournament attendance is down. Less people are talking about the game - posts on the major 40k forums are all down.
Most of the stuff announced this year - AoS, Plastic HH, Specialist Games etc isn't going to change things. They're trying to appeal to the customers left behind, and slow the death spiral as much as possible.

I wonder if GW is actually interested in attracting new miniature buying customers any more ?
Marvel for example doesn't really sell that many comics. It's IPs in TV, film and merchandising are far more profitable for them.
GW have been trying to protect their IP as much as possible, but don't seem to have done much with it outside of the odd mobile game. Perhaps no one is really interested in their IP either ?

So when they fold, no one will pick up the IP, and our models will be useless?!

Useless in the sense that there will be no official support for the game, yes. Fan-written content will probably continue to exist for another fifty years or more, but that will be basically fragmented groups of players playing their own, home-baked versions of the game.

If GW goes under, I expect that someone will buy the rights to the IP. However, I expect that "someone" to be someone like Zenimax, Electronic Arts, Sega, Sony or some other company interested in the IP as a source for video games and other digital entertainments, not as a tabletop wargame played with plastic soldiers.

That would be a massive bummer...

Let's hope GW doesn't go under!

As far as I'm concerned, 40K already has no official support.

Martel732 wrote:
As far as I'm concerned, 40K already has no official support.

Nonsense! You're just a GW hater!

I mean, think of all the FAQs they released this ye... well, alright, bad example.

Well, anyway, think of all the time they spend answering questions on their forums... okay, another bad example.

Look, just think about how they... um...

...

I'll get back to you.

As far as the IP is concerned, GW is a miniature producing company and the miniatures are made for collectors.
This is what Rick Priestley said in a thread recently.
Not sure if a company is interested in an IP like this.

With regards to who buys them out, I don't see EA or similar taking them purely for the IP. Given the number of game rules and so forth covered in the copyright, and the molds and such that GW owns are wasted if no tabletop game is produced. There's also some difficulty involved when acquiring a company internationally. Not a lot, but enough to deter purchase if you're only planning to use some of the assets. More likely some UK-based toys company will pick it up, and if not them I'd imagine it would be Hasbro, which has shown in the past its willingness to distribute niche content with its purchasing of Wizards of the Coast.

Do people think there's money in large scale miniature games going forward ?
Where you need large(er) sales to justify the cost of the the moulds for plastic multi-part kits ?

Despite there being a lot of skirmish sized games with
metal/resin figures, no one is doing a GW in respect to larger scale games with multi-part plastic kits.
Not profitable enough for other companies to try ?

Hasbro would probably pick them up for cheap. As for the IP, we have a ton of video games coming out soon set in the WH or 40k universe, tons of books, specialty games and new campaigns every few months. GW is smart in one sense, they are diversifying.

I don't think 40k is dying. I think it's shrinking and as it shrinks the problems will only get worse.
I do think the company is dying, but it could hold on for quite a while.