Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Blimey gents, this is all getting a bit much isn't it? Let's leave the viva la revolucion until after the vote? You're all making us start to sound like a third world South American country!

 Ketara wrote:
Blimey gents, this is all getting a bit much isn't it? Let's leave the viva la revolucion until after the vote? You're all making us start to sound like a third world South American country!

I dunno, I find it a refreshing change from the similarly huge levels of 'Vote Remain' hype I get from being an avid Twitter user. Every third tweet is someone retweeting a complaint about Leave voters or making comments about how anyone voting Leave must be delusional.

EU commission staffer caught tweeting pro-remain tweets? Surely not.

Just hope this is one man's "enthusiasm" with the EU (especially as his job is on the line).

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
More and more papers are running the story that MPs would try and keep Britain in, even if we voted to leave. Well, if it ever came to that, I'd stay out of London this June - we could end up witnessing the House of Commons being stormed by the British Public.

That will not happen, at least in any numbers which would approach anything like representing the british public.

 Ketara wrote:
Blimey gents, this is all getting a bit much isn't it? Let's leave the viva la revolucion until after the vote? You're all making us start to sound like a third world South American country!

It's British tradition to storm the house of commons every hundred years

Chartism, suffragettes, New Model army...l

On a serious note Ketara, if Britain votes to stay, I'll be unhappy, but I'll accept the result and defend that result, because I'm a democrat, but if these reports are true, and I hope to God they are not, and MPs defy the will of the British people...

It could turn ugly...

UKIP's support will skyrocket...

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
More and more papers are running the story that MPs would try and keep Britain in, even if we voted to leave. Well, if it ever came to that, I'd stay out of London this June - we could end up witnessing the House of Commons being stormed by the British Public.

That will not happen, at least in any numbers which would approach anything like representing the british public.

Not least because most of the British public wouldn't be able to get there easily; imagine how packed the trains would be, if they even turn up on time or you can afford to get one into London at all.

 Avatar 720 wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
More and more papers are running the story that MPs would try and keep Britain in, even if we voted to leave. Well, if it ever came to that, I'd stay out of London this June - we could end up witnessing the House of Commons being stormed by the British Public.

That will not happen, at least in any numbers which would approach anything like representing the british public.

Not least because most of the British public wouldn't be able to get there easily; imagine how packed the trains would be, if they even turn up on time or you can afford to get one into London at all.

Exactly. And then most of the tickets people bought wouldn't work when they tried to get through the barriers so they have to all queue up for the single barrier with a member of staff on checking tickets. It'll make the Munich Putsch seem like a roaring success!

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
More and more papers are running the story that MPs would try and keep Britain in, even if we voted to leave. Well, if it ever came to that, I'd stay out of London this June - we could end up witnessing the House of Commons being stormed by the British Public.

That will not happen, at least in any numbers which would approach anything like representing the british public.

I hope to God it doesn't happen, but if that scenario ever played out, there would be a lot of angry people. Who knows what would happen...

If they do this; a general election should be called so people can say if they're happy with their MP ignoring their decision. If not...I think we'll be within our rights to get a bit more 'forceful' with them.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
If they do this; a general election should be called so people can say if they're happy with their MP ignoring their decision. If not...I think we'll be within our rights to get a bit more 'forceful' with them.

You beat me to it. We would need a snap General Election to sort this out. Only then would MPs have the blessing of the British public to do this, if they were elected on that pledge.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
You beat me to it. We would need a snap General Election to sort this out. Only then would MPs have the blessing of the British public to do this, if they were elected on that pledge.

There is the risk of 'voter fatigue' but that's the MPs fault for ignoring the voters.

[starts hoarding glass, plywood, scaffold poles, brick bats, empty milk bottles and petrol]









Roll Up, Roll Up, getchya window protection and replacement here.......


[Next Street}



Roll Up, Roll Up, getchya democracy brand emergency window breakers and yer bottles o' Freedom Fire here.......




Should be the start of November by time things get going - Perfeck!

 notprop wrote:
[starts hoarding glass, plywood, scaffold poles, brick bats, empty milk bottles and petrol]
Roll Up, Roll Up, getchya window protection and replacement here.......
[Next Street}

Roll Up, Roll Up, getchya democracy brand emergency window breakers and yer bottles o' Freedom Fire here.......

Should be the start of November by time things get going - Perfeck!

A quote Napoleon made about Britain and shopkeepers springs to mind.....

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:It's British tradition to storm the house of commons every hundred years

I dunno, the whole 'storming thing' seems very...well, continental. The Bastille, the Reichstag, the Winter Palace, and so forth. I'd much rather just lob a half eaten chip butty/half a dozen eggs at my local MP's house and key his tyres every other week, you know? Perhaps push him off the train and back onto the platform during rush hour?Or, if we get really serious, get a group of old ladies to hit him with handbags and scold him angrily. You know, that sort of thing. I'm sure Gillian Duffy needs something to do.

Avatar 720 wrote:Not least because most of the British public wouldn't be able to get there easily; imagine how packed the trains would be, if they even turn up on time or you can afford to get one into London at all.

Okay, that I laughed at.

if Britain leaves the Euro it will cause sconomical disturbances of which Europe will suffer the hardest with Euro dropping in value being potentially disastrous, but now if Greece left the Euro the Euro might go up in value but this stems from an economic strength, the UK is one of the strongest economical links in the EU, without it, the EU will suffer.

Asterios wrote:
if Britain leaves the Euro it will cause sconomical disturbances of which Europe will suffer the hardest with Euro dropping in value being potentially disastrous, but now if Greece left the Euro the Euro might go up in value but this stems from an economic strength, the UK is one of the strongest economical links in the EU, without it, the EU will suffer.

The UK is not part of the Eurozone and there is little reason to a Brexit will effect the value of the Euro other than some short term fluctuations. Currency value is primarily driven by exports and fiscal policy, neither is likely to change overnight.

Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

A weaken'ed Euro... would that necessarily be a bad thing?

That means, the current debt would be cheaper to pay off... no? Such that, it may be the lifeline to get the other member states back on more solid grounds...

Which would mean that the UK Sterlings would be stronger, hypothetically... which, may depress UK exports a bit (UK goods/services being more expensive).

Please note that this isn't an endorsement nor rejection of a Brexit... I'm not confident that I know the particulars to make an informed decision.

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

The EU contribution is a trivial amount on national budgets, most members spend more on development aid. Trade might be negatively affected a bit depending on what political arrangement is decided upon post exit , but even in a worst case scenario, only Ireland is exposed to the UK to any significant degree. An emotional response to a member leaving the Eurozone could lead to some short term volatility in the markets but can't effect the economic fundamentals. So yeah, virtually no effect at all.

 whembly wrote:

A weaken'ed Euro... would that necessarily be a bad thing?

That means, the current debt would be cheaper to pay off... no? Such that, it may be the lifeline to get the other member states back on more solid grounds...

Which would mean that the UK Sterlings would be stronger, hypothetically... which, may depress UK exports a bit (UK goods/services being more expensive).

Please note that this isn't an endorsement nor rejection of a Brexit... I'm not confident that I know the particulars to make an informed decision.

No, it wouldn't be a bad thing for a while as it improve exports which could help the recovery (even though it negatively affects purchasing power over time). However it's unlikely to happen as the Euro remains very stable even with the ECB hitting full QE as most countries have chosen austerity programs instead of deficit spending to deal with the down turn.

 Antario wrote:

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

The EU contribution is a trivial amount on national budgets, most members spend more on development aid. Trade might be negatively effected a bit depending on what political arrangement is decided upon post exit , but even in a worst case scenario, only Ireland is exposed to the UK on any significant degree. An emotional response to a member leaving the Eurozone could lead to some short term volatility in the markets but can't effect the economic fundamentals. So yeah, virtually no effect at all.
.

The current contribution to the EU budget is around 1.8% of what the UK spends in a year. Not a vast amount on a national level for us, but certainly not a negligible sum in total. It would be a far higher proportion of a less wealthy countries income.

 Ketara wrote:

 Antario wrote:

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

The EU contribution is a trivial amount on national budgets, most members spend more on development aid. Trade might be negatively effected a bit depending on what political arrangement is decided upon post exit , but even in a worst case scenario, only Ireland is exposed to the UK on any significant degree. An emotional response to a member leaving the Eurozone could lead to some short term volatility in the markets but can't effect the economic fundamentals. So yeah, virtually no effect at all.
.

The current contribution to the EU budget is around 1.8% of what the UK spends in a year. Not a vast amount on a national level for us, but certainly not a negligible sum in total. It would be a far higher proportion of a less wealthy countries income.

Even so, a roughly 10 billion pound reduction of the EU budget isn't going to affect the value of the Euro in the slightest. It just means some farmers will miss out on a bit of subsidy, poor regions will receive less infrastructure, and some conservation projects will be scrapped.

 Antario wrote:

 Ketara wrote:

 Antario wrote:

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

The EU contribution is a trivial amount on national budgets, most members spend more on development aid. Trade might be negatively effected a bit depending on what political arrangement is decided upon post exit , but even in a worst case scenario, only Ireland is exposed to the UK on any significant degree. An emotional response to a member leaving the Eurozone could lead to some short term volatility in the markets but can't effect the economic fundamentals. So yeah, virtually no effect at all.
.

The current contribution to the EU budget is around 1.8% of what the UK spends in a year. Not a vast amount on a national level for us, but certainly not a negligible sum in total. It would be a far higher proportion of a less wealthy countries income.

Even so, a roughly 10 billion pound reduction of the EU budget isn't going to affect the value of the Euro in the slightest. It just means some farmers will miss out on a bit of subsidy, poor regions will receive less infrastructure, and some conservation projects will be scrapped.

but when you combine it with the economical issues going on in Greece or Spain or France even, it could be enough and most likely will be enough to destabilize the Euro as a whole.

Asterios wrote:


but when you combine it with the economical issues going on in Greece or Spain or France even, it could be enough and most likely will be enough to destabilize the Euro as a whole.

Depends on what you mean by 'destabilise'. Currencies 'destabilise', in that they lose value, about as easily as my downstairs bog toilet seat, namely every other week. Markets get jittery all the time.

We're not part of the EU, so us leaving won't have a direct impact on the Euro, it's still being used in just as many countries as it was before, and still guaranteed by just as many governments as it was before. It might lose some minimal (and it will be minimal) value on a longer term basis due to the indirect effect of Brexit reducing the size of the common economic trade area (and all that entails), but as a currency, it's still as stable as it was before. The Euro has massive problems, but brexit isn't particularly one of them.

Asterios wrote:

 Antario wrote:

 Ketara wrote:

 Antario wrote:

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

The EU contribution is a trivial amount on national budgets, most members spend more on development aid. Trade might be negatively effected a bit depending on what political arrangement is decided upon post exit , but even in a worst case scenario, only Ireland is exposed to the UK on any significant degree. An emotional response to a member leaving the Eurozone could lead to some short term volatility in the markets but can't effect the economic fundamentals. So yeah, virtually no effect at all.
.

The current contribution to the EU budget is around 1.8% of what the UK spends in a year. Not a vast amount on a national level for us, but certainly not a negligible sum in total. It would be a far higher proportion of a less wealthy countries income.

Even so, a roughly 10 billion pound reduction of the EU budget isn't going to affect the value of the Euro in the slightest. It just means some farmers will miss out on a bit of subsidy, poor regions will receive less infrastructure, and some conservation projects will be scrapped.

but when you combine it with the economical issues going on in Greece or Spain or France even, it could be enough and most likely will be enough to destabilize the Euro as a whole.

The only reason why Greece was a danger to the Euro was because a lot of EU commercial banks were exposed to Greek banks and/or Greek government debt and a default could bring down the whole banking system. That risk is gone now permanently whatever happens to Greece in the near future. France and Spain face painful reforms of their labor markets in the coming years but that is nothing new.

For the same measure I can't see much happen with the UK economy and pound sterling in case of a Brexit. The UK was already on the periphery of the EU as it's not part of Schengen or the Euro so little changes there. The only two major headaches are services and the legal status of UK residents in the EU and vice versa but there is two years to reach some form of agreement anyway.

 Antario wrote:

Asterios wrote:

 Antario wrote:

 Ketara wrote:

 Antario wrote:

 notprop wrote:
Other than the imminent loss of revenue for the the EU, loss of trade, reduced confindemce in the Euro because a major backer of it's parent entity has withdrawn.

Yeah, virtually no effect at all.

The EU contribution is a trivial amount on national budgets, most members spend more on development aid. Trade might be negatively effected a bit depending on what political arrangement is decided upon post exit , but even in a worst case scenario, only Ireland is exposed to the UK on any significant degree. An emotional response to a member leaving the Eurozone could lead to some short term volatility in the markets but can't effect the economic fundamentals. So yeah, virtually no effect at all.
.

The current contribution to the EU budget is around 1.8% of what the UK spends in a year. Not a vast amount on a national level for us, but certainly not a negligible sum in total. It would be a far higher proportion of a less wealthy countries income.

Even so, a roughly 10 billion pound reduction of the EU budget isn't going to affect the value of the Euro in the slightest. It just means some farmers will miss out on a bit of subsidy, poor regions will receive less infrastructure, and some conservation projects will be scrapped.

but when you combine it with the economical issues going on in Greece or Spain or France even, it could be enough and most likely will be enough to destabilize the Euro as a whole.

The only reason why Greece was a danger to the Euro was because a lot of EU commercial banks were exposed to Greek banks and/or Greek government debt and a default could bring down the whole banking system. That risk is gone now permanently whatever happens to Greece in the near future. France and Spain face painful reforms of their labor markets in the coming years but that is nothing new.

For the same measure I can't see much happen with the UK economy and pound sterling in case of a Brexit. The UK was already on the periphery of the EU as it's not part of Schengen or the Euro so little changes there. The only two major headaches are services and the legal status of UK residents in the EU and vice versa but there is two years to reach some form of agreement anyway.

The UK leaving would see the EU project vulnerable to further referenda. Something EU leaders have publicly been dismissive of.
Recent talk of reform would have to be backed up by deeds. Which is a PR nightmare for the EU as it is tantamount to admitting the project has been flawed from the start. They would be fire fighting as far right and left parties are further guaranteed to gain ground on the back of the UK leaving.
The TTIP will still be a bone of contention and with more recognition of its prospective regulatory changes the EU will have to battle to keep it on track - The UK leaving could actually see the EU "put to the back of the que" as growing concern for the somewhat closed negotiations grows.
There are a lot more problems that The EU faces as the UK negotiates its exit. These are going to be problematic for the the performance of the Euro..

And Greece is a danger for the EU as saving Greece goes against EU rules regarding how much government debt a country may have...60% of GDP was the rule...
Italy is running at an unsustainable 160% or so of GDP and could be the next country needing a financial bailout...these were verboten under EU law too....

but you are looking at each instance by itself, you pick up a rock and put it in your pocket,you don't really notice it and it does not effect you, you pick up another rock and put it in your pocket, now you notice they are there, but not really effecting you, then you put another rock in your pocket and so on and so on until it becomes noticeable and effects you. you get enough incidents happening and things will take notice, then there is the VAT situation, how will VAT be handled between Europe and the UK now? how will trade and travel be handled? how will the Chunnel be effected? so many questions all of which can effect things.

Asterios wrote:
but you are looking at each instance by itself, you pick up a rock and put it in your pocket,you don't really notice it and it does not effect you, you pick up another rock and put it in your pocket, now you notice they are there, but not really effecting you, then you put another rock in your pocket and so on and so on until it becomes noticeable and effects you. you get enough incidents happening and things will take notice, then there is the VAT situation, how will VAT be handled between Europe and the UK now? how will trade and travel be handled? how will the Chunnel be effected? so many questions all of which can effect things.

Trade can carry on relatively unchanged. Making items for the EU means adhering to certain regulations. the same regulations which other trading blocks have to adhere to as well.
It is in the EU and UKs interests to change very little regarding trade and travel.

As a Brit I don't expect my travel to EU countries to change that dramatically.

Asterios wrote:
but you are looking at each instance by itself, you pick up a rock and put it in your pocket,you don't really notice it and it does not effect you, you pick up another rock and put it in your pocket, now you notice they are there, but not really effecting you, then you put another rock in your pocket and so on and so on until it becomes noticeable and effects you. you get enough incidents happening and things will take notice, then there is the VAT situation, how will VAT be handled between Europe and the UK now? how will trade and travel be handled? how will the Chunnel be effected? so many questions all of which can effect things.

What do you mean the 'VAT situation'? What rate our Government chooses to set Value Added Tax at after Brexit will have absolutely no impact on the Euro, and neither will an extra twenty minute wait time at the Channel.

I appreciate you are interested to see how things will impact on other things, but what rate we set VAT at will affect the value of the Euro about as much as that bottle of cider I had to drink last night. The two are really not related beyond the concept that they both have something to do with money. If we were still in the EU, the European set rate of VAT would have slightly (and really, slightly) more relevance, but our VAT after brexit would have nothing to do with it.

 Mr. Burning wrote:

Asterios wrote:
but you are looking at each instance by itself, you pick up a rock and put it in your pocket,you don't really notice it and it does not effect you, you pick up another rock and put it in your pocket, now you notice they are there, but not really effecting you, then you put another rock in your pocket and so on and so on until it becomes noticeable and effects you. you get enough incidents happening and things will take notice, then there is the VAT situation, how will VAT be handled between Europe and the UK now? how will trade and travel be handled? how will the Chunnel be effected? so many questions all of which can effect things.

Trade can carry on relatively unchanged. Making items for the EU means adhering to certain regulations. the same regulations which other trading blocks have to adhere to as well.
It is in the EU and UKs interests to change very little regarding trade and travel.

As a Brit I don't expect my travel to EU countries to change that dramatically.

but you do not know for sure.

 Ketara wrote:

Asterios wrote:
but you are looking at each instance by itself, you pick up a rock and put it in your pocket,you don't really notice it and it does not effect you, you pick up another rock and put it in your pocket, now you notice they are there, but not really effecting you, then you put another rock in your pocket and so on and so on until it becomes noticeable and effects you. you get enough incidents happening and things will take notice, then there is the VAT situation, how will VAT be handled between Europe and the UK now? how will trade and travel be handled? how will the Chunnel be effected? so many questions all of which can effect things.

What do you mean the 'VAT situation'? What rate our Government chooses to set Value Added Tax at after Brexit will have absolutely no impact on the Euro, and neither will an extra twenty minute wait time at the Channel.

I appreciate you are interested to see how things will impact on other things, but what rate we set VAT at will affect the value of the Euro about as much as that bottle of cider I had to drink last night. The two are really not related beyond the concept that they both have something to do with money. If we were still in the EU, the European set rate of VAT would have slightly (and really, slightly) more relevance, but our VAT after brexit would have nothing to do with it.

trade between European countries usually avoided VAT import taxs and such because it was part of the Euro agreement, without that, people on both sides of the channel could see an increase in product costs.

Asterios wrote:

trade between European countries usually avoided VAT import taxs and such because it was part of the Euro agreement, without that, people on both sides of the channel could see an increase in product costs.

With all due respect, and in the spirit of friendliness (I really don't want this to sound condescending, even though I know it probably will), the way you just phrased that shows that you're not very familiar with how currency fluctuations work, or what financial factors impact upon what economic factors. That's not a bad thing (God only knows, most people don't know their Adam Smith from their John Keynes), and I make no pretence at being the world's greatest expert on these matters. But please accept my most sincere assurance however, that our VAT rate post Brexit will not cause the euro to lower in value.

 Ketara wrote:

Asterios wrote:

trade between European countries usually avoided VAT import taxs and such because it was part of the Euro agreement, without that, people on both sides of the channel could see an increase in product costs.

With all due respect, and in the spirit of friendliness (I really don't want this to sound condescending, even though I know it probably will), the way you just phrased that shows that you're not very familiar with how currency fluctuations work, or what financial factors impact upon what economic factors. That's not a bad thing (God only knows, most people don't know their Adam Smith from their John Keynes), and I make no pretence at being the world's greatest expert on these matters. But please accept my most sincere assurance however, that our VAT rate post Brexit will not cause the euro to lower in value.

didn't say VAT would by itself, but it will be one of a hundred factors with a split that will effect it.