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Witzkatz wrote: Are you guys keeping Germany with its major North Sea ports of Bremerhaven, Wilhelmshaven and so on out of your North Sea Economic Area on purpose?
Witzkatz wrote: Are you guys keeping Germany with its major North Sea ports of Bremerhaven, Wilhelmshaven and so on out of your North Sea Economic Area on purpose?
Nobody should let their vote, be it in or out, be decided on the basis of what might happen in another country after the referendum.
My number 1 concern is the future of this island.
What about indirect impacts on our island? If we allow Eastern Europe to destabilize (because Putin clearly wants it back), what's the fall-out going to be? How long before we have all of those refugees to house as well as the current flood? What if we get dragged into it?
What might happen in other countries will affect the future of this island.
Even with BREXIT, Britain will still be in NATO. Putin's not daft enough to take on NATO - nobody wins. Eastern Europe will be fine.*
Hopefully, they won't be famous last words
but the point remains. I'm not worried about Russian sabre rattling. If anything, I'd be more worried if they went quiet.
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
Channel 4 has confirmed its line-up of the final televised EU referendum debate on Wednesday night with an audience of 150 public figures split between remain, leave and those still undecided.
Former Newsnight presenter Jeremy Paxman will host the 90-minute broadcast featuring revolving panels on topics such as the economy, immigration, and security chosen from the audience made up of “well-known and passionate guests”.
Those representing remain include MPs Alex Salmond and Yvette Cooper, presenter June Sarpong, musician Rick Astley and celebrity chef Delia Smith.
Those in the leave part of the audience will include Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, former Tory MPs Louise Mensch and Ann Widdecombe, presenter Ulrika Jonsson and columnist and author Toby Young.
One can only assume we are all suffering from some evil curse or something.
Nothing else makes sense.
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
Mandorallen turned back toward the insolently sneering baron. 'My Lord,' The great knight said distantly, 'I find thy face apelike and thy form misshapen. Thy beard, moreover, is an offence against decency, resembling more closely the scabrous fur which doth decorate the hinder portion of a mongrel dog than a proper adornment for a human face. Is it possibly that thy mother, seized by some wild lechery, did dally at some time past with a randy goat?' - Mimbrate Knight Protector Mandorallen.
Excerpt from "Seeress of Kell", Book Five of The Malloreon series by David Eddings.
"You need not fear us, unless you are a dark heart, a vile one who preys on the innocent; I promise, you can’t hide forever in the empty darkness, for we will hunt you down like the animals you are, and pull you into the very bowels of hell." Iron - Within Temptation
Yes, yes it is. The "confronting reality with utopias" can be read two ways, he's either arguing, as you claim, that the EU needs to remain true to its goals and push on, or he's arguing that the "we" in the speech are the ones responsible for having pushed these ideals of utopia despite reality, and that they might have to stop and take notice of context in order to do better. Sure, he's not arguing for the abandoning of the goal of European unity, you're right on that point, but he is (at least I'd argue he is) calling for a pause to review and reflect over the way things have been done so far.
I think you're right - he realized it was moving too fast, the plan got noticed, and as soon as we drop our guard he'll be back at it.
I don't know what to think of the house of lords. I like the idea that theres some stopping points if parliamentary legislation gets out of hand, but looking back through the motions which were blocked by the house of lords there are a few things which i disagree with.
[sarcasm]And i love the deliberately obtuse wording of what each document is about. [/sarcasm]
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-px27tzAtVwZpZ4ljopV2w "ashtrays and teacups do not count as cover"
"jack of all trades, master of none; certainly better than a master of one"
The Ordo Reductor - the guy's who make wonderful things like the Landraider Achillies, but can't use them in battle..
Turns out that it lost out to the EEC, which back then was pretty much the same thing but on a larger scale. But of course since then the EEC has mutated into the EU and well, here we are.
In the event of Brexit, this should be revived as the North Sea Economic Area.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/20 18:54:34
Future War Cultist wrote: I want to build this North Sea Economic Area group myself. The UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland. Even better with Greenland, Holland and Ireland too.
And how long would it be before the UK started dictating to the other members what to do? At least there's not one power in the EU that has the same clout as everyone else put together.
It would be an economic trade zone, not a political union.
And who would be setting the agenda for such a Free Trade Zone? It sure as hell isn't going to be Norway or Finland.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
The agenda would simply be, no tariffs on each other's goods, possible visa free travel (travel, not work or residence) and coming together when dealing with outside nations. So if the EU comes after Norways oil for example we can stand in solidarity with them.
But we can cross that bridge if and when we come to it. Several countries would need to get out of the EU first to do it.
Future War Cultist wrote: I want to build this North Sea Economic Area group myself. The UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland. Even better with Greenland, Holland and Ireland too.
And how long would it be before the UK started dictating to the other members what to do? At least there's not one power in the EU that has the same clout as everyone else put together.
It would be an economic trade zone, not a political union.
And who would be setting the agenda for such a Free Trade Zone? It sure as hell isn't going to be Norway or Finland.
Future War Cultist wrote: I want to build this North Sea Economic Area group myself. The UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland. Even better with Greenland, Holland and Ireland too.
And how long would it be before the UK started dictating to the other members what to do? At least there's not one power in the EU that has the same clout as everyone else put together.
It would be an economic trade zone, not a political union.
And who would be setting the agenda for such a Free Trade Zone? It sure as hell isn't going to be Norway or Finland.
Why are you so sure there would be an agenda?
Because Britain would be as big as everyone else in the bloc together. It'd become "Great Britain and friends", because when one member has so much more power than everyone else that member is going to be calling the shots. Considering how worried you are about your own sovereignty, I'm surprised this is controversial to you.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
Future War Cultist wrote: I want to build this North Sea Economic Area group myself. The UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland. Even better with Greenland, Holland and Ireland too.
And how long would it be before the UK started dictating to the other members what to do? At least there's not one power in the EU that has the same clout as everyone else put together.
It would be an economic trade zone, not a political union.
And who would be setting the agenda for such a Free Trade Zone? It sure as hell isn't going to be Norway or Finland.
Why are you so sure there would be an agenda?
Because Britain would be as big as everyone else in the bloc together. It'd become "Great Britain and friends", because when one member has so much more power than everyone else that member is going to be calling the shots. Considering how worried you are about your own sovereignty, I'm surprised this is controversial to you.
No, I don't accept your premise - that anybody would be calling the shots. We're not advocating a European Union Mark 2 with intrusive regulations and laws that member states must follow and supra national organisations with the powers to interfere in the domestic affairs of member states, all of which is dominated by and therefore biased to the largest member state (I.e. Germany / UK)...we're literally just advocating a free trade zone with no tarrifs etc. There'll be no body calling the shots because there'll be nothing to call the shots over.
We're arguing past each other here.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/06/20 23:01:13
British steel taking a beating. ATMEU membership is providing them with a bit of a cushion against cheap Chinese steel. After BREXIT England will be slightly more limited as far as how it can protect it's industries via tariffs.
Scotland moving to exit the UK in favor of the EU. No, seriously. A lot of the reasons the Leave campaign has been waiving about also would apply to Scotland leaving the UK. Talk about free advertising.
Increased tariffs on goods going to the EU. I predict that England will find it much more difficult to get a good deal than they seem to think, given tightening belts in Europe, and the stigma that will stick to the UK on the continent after BREXIT.
The lack of legal means by which England can seek extradition of criminals who escape the UK to the Continent will lead to a good deal of public frustration as England's criminals escape justice. ATM the UK depends on it's EU membership as it's prime means to work closely with EU member police. Many of it''s previous extradition treaties have been allowed to lapse or be annulled, as they were unneeded. It could be Bloody Jack all over again, and there's not a damn thing that could be done as long as he makes it to France.
In the flip side, Englishmen can go back to committing all the crimes in France they like, there won't be any extradition heading in the other direction, either.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/21 00:51:41
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
Extradition treaties don't completely break down if we leave the EU, we have treaties with countries all around the world. We're still in Interpol, criminals would have to run to South America still to hide.
And the steel industry was killed by the UK government. Three decades of british governments have dismantled it piece by piece, the latest closures and job losses are actually in part because our government opposed the EU tariffs in cheap chinese steel flooding the market. They would rather international corporations operating in the UK used cheap foreign steel than be encouraged to use products of our own national industries. The current government's policies cut the throat of the steel industry.
Howard A Treesong wrote: Extradition treaties don't completely break down if we leave the EU, we have treaties with countries all around the world. We're still in Interpol, criminals would have to run to South America still to hide.
And the steel industry was killed by the UK government. Three decades of british governments have dismantled it piece by piece, the latest closures and job losses are actually in part because our government opposed the EU tariffs in cheap chinese steel flooding the market. They would rather international corporations operating in the UK used cheap foreign steel than be encouraged to use products of our own national industries. The current government's policies cut the throat of the steel industry.
that is all pretty much true. China is dumping steel, France and Germany have managed to control it more than the UK last time I looked.
I don't think I've ever seen the Brexiteers describe what economy they'd want, post EU. For the public record, there are two Brexit economists - both fairly well-respected.
One is Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School.
The second is Andrew Lilico, who is Chairman of the IEA/Sunday Times Monetary Policy Committee.
They have two very different visions.
Minford would cut immigration. He thinks prices will go down. But he sees the end of all manufacturing in the UK. He thinks this is a price worth paying.
Lillico says there will be a symbolic cut in immigration, for one or two years. Then back to pretty much open borders. He thinks manufacturing will continue.
Both somewhat belittle the other's theories which are, in truth, incompatible with each other.
Below are Munford and Lilico's visions. I offer them because, given the paucity of information offered by the Brexit campaigners for how a post-EU economy would work, these are the most rational visions. So with one alternative, there's no manufacturing. With the other, immigration is just a totem and there will be minimal difference.
They've' both been interviewed on the BBC's excellent More or Less: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd/episodes/player Minford:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/…/brexit-will-boost-our-economy-a…/ Lilico:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/…/Britains-work-in-the-EU-is-don…
The UK is currently part of the EU wide Common Arrest Warrant Framework. This enables any EU member to issue arrest warrants that have the practical effect of extradition without the diplomatic procedures.
On leaving the EU we would also leave this as it's part of the overall structure. We would still be part of Interpol and the European Court for Human Rights. These do not carry out extradition functions, though.
We therefore would have to re-establish treaties with all the EU countries, and go down the normal diplomatic route whenever we wanted to make an extradition. Alternatively, we could simply apply to rejoin the Common Arrest Warrant Framework.
This obviously would make a nonsense of leaving the EU, but that is true for a number of different points of international relations which is part of the weakness of the Leave case.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/21 07:18:22
No, I don't accept your premise - that anybody would be calling the shots. We're not advocating a European Union Mark 2 with intrusive regulations and laws that member states must follow and supra national organisations with the powers to interfere in the domestic affairs of member states, all of which is dominated by and therefore biased to the largest member state (I.e. Germany / UK)...we're literally just advocating a free trade zone with no tarrifs etc. There'll be no body calling the shots because there'll be nothing to call the shots over..
I get that you think in an ideal world, no-one would be calling the shots, but particularly with the clause about mutual support in Europe, you'd have countries interacting in ways that aren't initially expected and some sort of shot calling will be happeing. If there's no agenda/common statement then there's nothing to control that..
You'd be relying on everyone agreeing unanimously to all suggestions, but if there's ever a difference of opinion how is it going to be resolved? The bigger countries threatening to leave?
In a captivating interview with Iain Dale, Chancellor George Osborne admitted that there is "no plan" in place if Britain votes to leave the European Union.
You can hear the full interview above - including Osborne's tribute to Jo Cox and his claim that if Britain votes out on Thursday, the economic hit would begin on Friday.
"It wouldn't just be when we left in two years time that the economic hit would come," said Osborne. "It would start to come this coming Friday.
"That's when the uncertainty would start."
"I see a country that would be permanently poorer because we would not be trading as much with our European neighbours as we do today."
Asked by Iain if there would be redundancy notices on Friday, Osborne said: "That will start to happen very quickly, sadly."
"I have to tell you that you cannot protect people from the economic shock that leaving the EU would bring about."
"Presumably you have been planning for a Leave vote because the polls are so close," said Iain.
After admitting there were contingency plans for the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote, Osborne added: "We have not got plans for what you then do."
"Really?" asked Iain. "I'm astonished. The polls are neck and neck, surely a responsible government would be planning for what would happen."
Osborne said: "No we haven't...we're arguing the country should remain."
Iain continued to put the Chancellor on the spot about the lack of plans, forcing Osborne to admit: "Britain does not have a plan for Brexit.
"And do you know what? It would take years and years...I could come on this show in ten years and we'd still be talking about how we re-establish a trade deal with France and Germany.
"It's not for me to come up with [Leave's] plan."
Oh well, that's fine then.
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
If you hate the Tories vote to leave, the party will have destroyed itself by the end of the year.
Labour Leave already have it covered
Spoiler:
Though, I will say again, don't vote Remain or Leave because of a dislike of our current government or personalities. They'll be gone in a few years, the EU is ever present.
If you hate the Tories vote to leave, the party will have destroyed itself by the end of the year.
yes, it will be led by Gove and Johnson, Priti Patel will remove all workers' rights, they will have performed a right-wing coup and we will be the far-right elite's slaves.
Permanently leaving a Union that (albeit imperfectly) protects workers' rights, in order to get rid of the present government, is insanity - which is why all the main unions are part of Leave. And that's why "Labour Leave" is funded by Tory donors.
.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/06/21 08:49:19
Honestly, should Leave prevail, I think we'd be having a general election within 12 months. Someone will call a no confidence vote and I reckon there'd be enough Conservative rebels to tip it over. Even more so if the two lame ducks refuse to budge.
In a captivating interview with Iain Dale, Chancellor George Osborne admitted that there is "no plan" in place if Britain votes to leave the European Union.
...
...
Iain continued to put the Chancellor on the spot about the lack of plans, forcing Osborne to admit: "Britain does not have a plan for Brexit.
"And do you know what? It would take years and years...I could come on this show in ten years and we'd still be talking about how we re-establish a trade deal with France and Germany.
"It's not for me to come up with [Leave's] plan."
Oh well, that's fine then.
To be fair to Osborne (and Cameron) much though I dislike and distrust both of them, official government policy is not to leave the EU, and it doesn't happen on Friday afternoon.
If there is a referendum vote to leave, it does not bind parliament. The government would have to consider what to do. It could simply disregard the vote, especially if it is very close, and wait to be punished at the polls in 2020.
I think most likely the government would start work on a bill to initiate the process of unwinding the key EU treaties. This would need to go through parliament with no certainty that it would pass, if it failed, IDK what would happen, perhaps the government would resign and call a general election. Once the election was settled (and the EU would be a factor in the campaign) the situation might be that the people had changed their mind and didn't want to leave after all.
At the same time as developing this bill, the government would need to be working on unwinding all the various commitments to the EU and developing replacements for them. For example, the EU Arrest Warrant System I mentioned earlier would need to be replaced. Obviously there would need to be new trade treaties with the EU and these would need to cover all the standards and so on so that we would be in compliance with EU law. A lot of this would trigger changes to domestic policy legislation, such as s new agricultural policy to replace EU grants. And so on and on.
Clearly all of this is a metric fuckton (0.98 Imperial fucktons) of expensive work. It would be stupid to start it when there is no certainty it will be needed. It is very unlikely all this could be achieved in the nominal two years that leaving the EU is supposed to take.
At this stage a well prepared foreign office should have a list of all the work that would need to be done, and that's all.
OTOH as Osborne says, the economic impact of a vote to leave will start on Friday morning. We have already seen significant volatility in the foreign exchange markets in the past couple of weeks, the GBP weakening as the Leave campaign gained ground, then strengthening again as the Remain campaign resurged over the weekend.
No, I don't accept your premise - that anybody would be calling the shots. We're not advocating a European Union Mark 2 with intrusive regulations and laws that member states must follow and supra national organisations with the powers to interfere in the domestic affairs of member states, all of which is dominated by and therefore biased to the largest member state (I.e. Germany / UK)...we're literally just advocating a free trade zone with no tarrifs etc. There'll be no body calling the shots because there'll be nothing to call the shots over..
I get that you think in an ideal world, no-one would be calling the shots, but particularly with the clause about mutual support in Europe, you'd have countries interacting in ways that aren't initially expected and some sort of shot calling will be happeing. If there's no agenda/common statement then there's nothing to control that..
You'd be relying on everyone agreeing unanimously to all suggestions, but if there's ever a difference of opinion how is it going to be resolved? The bigger countries threatening to leave?
This. It is beyond naïve to think that a free-trade zone where one member dwarfs everyone else wouldn't become a political tool for that member. All the Scandinavian countries, for example, are rather left of the UK politically; in Sweden the unions have power that would make Mrs. Thatcher rotate in her grave. Sooner or later there's going to be a conflict between free trade and the power of the unions.
You're also assuming that these other countries would want to throw away the biggest trade bloc in the world in favour of the UK. Why would that be the case?
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
If you hate the Tories vote to leave, the party will have destroyed itself by the end of the year.
As much asI hate the tories, that's a terrible idea. The tories will tear themselvs apart anyway, but whilst labour continues to have no directin theres no real alternative. We should be voting based on the bigger picture and the future and whatever happens we'll have crap, innefective, corrupt self serving politicians.
