EU referendum June 23rd

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**Do_I_Not_Like_That**

alanmckenzie wrote:
As long as it's well behaved.

If there's any trouble, it'll be in Yorkshire. Apparently, there's an old law that lets farmers bring their cows and sheep to the polling stations

**alanmckenzie**

**Skullhammer**

All those in favour of staying jean claude junker has said there is no more reform and the uks got all its going to get.

So much for reform from the inside.

http://news.sky.com/story/1715890/eu-chiefs-referendum-warning-out-is-out

**BigWaaagh**

Within 24 hours the financial markets will make their statement on the result of the vote, whatever it is. That's going to be the opinion that matters.

**Avatar 720**

Skullhammer wrote:
All those in favour of staying jean claude junker has said there is no more reform and the uks got all its going to get.

So much for reform from the inside.

http://news.sky.com/story/1715890/eu-chiefs-referendum-warning-out-is-out

Reading the article, it's a bit of a push to suggest no renegotiating anything ever. To me, at least, he clearly just means that there'll be no renegotiating to keep the UK in the EU.

**Hivefleet Oblivion**

It's inescapable - if the UK defects, they won't treat us nicely as it will encourage others.

This story is very poignant. I doubt we will ever read as insightful a piece in an English newspaper about another European country.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-brexit-cover-story-please-don-t-go-a-1099070-3.html

**Mr. Burning**

Avatar 720 wrote:
Skullhammer wrote:
All those in favour of staying jean claude junker has said there is no more reform and the uks got all its going to get.

So much for reform from the inside.

http://news.sky.com/story/1715890/eu-chiefs-referendum-warning-out-is-out

Reading the article, it's a bit of a push to suggest no renegotiating anything ever. To me, at least, he clearly just means that there'll be no renegotiating to keep the UK in the EU.

I thought that, but his quote as saying Cameron got everything we could give is pretty solid regarding no more negotiating for exemptions.

If we vote to stay then we need to be more proactive and call the EU on any amendments they give to other members. Staying in means we need to be active in these 'reforms' that have conveniently been talked about.

Cameron today: '..We are all saying the same thing - we are stronger, we are better off, we are safer in a reformed European Union...." It hasn't reformed yet.

**zedmeister**

Mr. Burning wrote:

Cameron today: '..We are all saying the same thing - we are stronger, we are better off, we are safer in a reformed European Union...." It hasn't reformed yet.

That's why I don't buy the reform from within argument. The whole mindset of the bureaucracy seems geared towards closer integration and following the ever closer union agenda. As I said earlier in the thread, the EU is a ratchet democracy. They march ever onwards with their vision and no going back, ever. Little concessions and tweaks are made but nothing that could disrupt the overall plan.

**Steve steveson**

So, this happened... I wasn't sure which thread to put it in, EU or Jo Cox, so I plumped for the EU one, as it seemed more appropriate.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-brexit-leave-plane-banner-jo-cox-memorial-trafalgar-square-brendan-cox-disgusting-a7095796.html

EU referendum: Pro-Brexit campaigners branded 'disgusting' as plane carrying banner flies over Jo Cox memorial

The Labour MP's husband was making a speech on what would have been her 42nd birthday

A plane carrying a banner displaying the slogan “Take Control #VoteLeave” has repeatedly flown over Trafalgar Square as Jo Cox’s husband gave an emotional speech at a rally in her memory.

Brendan Cox was telling crowds how the killed Labour MP “lived for her beliefs” and would have been spending the day campaigning for Britain to remain in the European Union.

Thousands of people were gathering at events in London, across the UK and around the world to pay tribute to Ms Cox's life and legacy on what would have been her 42nd birthday.

Many of those rallying in Trafalgar Square condemned the appearance of the pro-Brexit plane as “disgusting”, saying the banner flew over the rally several times as the memorial continued.

One person called the appearance “unbelievably tasteless”, while another said it was “completely disrespectful”.

Stella Creasy, the Labour MP for Walthamstow, wrote a tweet to the official Vote Leave campaign saying: “Flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!”

She added: “It's been over twice now - that isn't coincidence @voteleave , that's just sickening disrespect!”

Vote Leave said it did not organise the plane, which had been dispatched by British aircraft manufacturer Britten-Norman as part of its own pro-Brexit campaign.

a press release announcing the stunt, the firm said its banner would be flown around the UK between 9 June and the day before the referendum from a turboprop Islander aircraft.

"We understand that, during a pre-planned photo opportunity over Westminster today, we were visible from Trafalgar Square and that our flight coincided with an important memorial service,” a spokesperson said.

"The timing of our flight was determined by weather, air traffic control and the prior approval of the the Diplomatic Protection Group and required the consent of the Metropolitan Police.

"We are clearly very disappointed that the timing of the service and our flight have overlapped but there was no NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) requesting the avoidance and the coincidence of timing could not have been known by the crew flying the sortie.

"Our sincere apologies to anyone present who has been offended by the overflight. We would also like to take the opportunity to advise that the flight was a private one and was not sanctioned by the official Vote Leave campaign.”

The plane's engines could be heard as Mr Cox fought against tears in an emotional tribute to his late wife.

Your support and your love has helped us all,” he told the crowds. “Today would have been Jo’s 42nd birthday and she would have spent it dashing around the streets of her hometown trying to convince people that Britain is stronger in Europe.”

He said the Labour MP would have been “amazed, baffled and humbled” at the global reaction to her death and the “outpouring of love from around the world”.

A minute’s silence was held during the hour-long celebration of her life, which was also attended by her three-year-old daughter Lejla and son Cuillin, five.

Malala Yousafzai, the education campaigner who was shot in the head by the Taliban for her activism, was among the guest speakers at the rally.

Events were being held in a variety of locations in tribute to Ms Cox's “love, energy, passion, flair, Yorkshire heritage and belief in the humanity of every person in every place”.

Bill Nighy was due to give a reading, while U2 had recorded a musical tribute in Los Angeles.

It may well be a mistake, and apparently nothing to do wth the leave campaign, but what poor timing.

**Herzlos**

zedmeister wrote:
Mr. Burning wrote:

Cameron today: '..We are all saying the same thing - we are stronger, we are better off, we are safer in a reformed European Union...." It hasn't reformed yet.

That's why I don't buy the reform from within argument. The whole mindset of the bureaucracy seems geared towards closer integration and following the ever closer union agenda. As I said earlier in the thread, the EU is a ratchet democracy. They march ever onwards with their vision and no going back, ever. Little concessions and tweaks are made but nothing that could disrupt the overall plan.

The thing is, we can always stay in now and then leave in the future if no reform happens or something else happens we dislike. If we leave now, it's going to be an uphill struggle to get back in, and we'll be given absolutely no special treament. So leaving now because of something that may/may not happen seems a bit short sighted.

**Orlanth**

A low flying plane has to follow the flight plan it is given.
This is doubly so over London which is very closely watched airspace. The plane could have been booked some time in the past to be available possibly before the Jo Cox murder and its transit path was not looked at in minuitae.

The Brexit campaigners cane be expected to cancel the whole flight, and it would be difficult to divert. It is an unfortunate coincidence of cuircumstances and should be seen as such.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

The thing is, we can always stay in now and then leave in the future if no reform happens or something else happens we dislike.

No. We can't.
That is a Salmondism, the idea that you can have repeated referenda at will. The idea of multiple Scottish referenda is very unpopular with the rest of the UK as it is seen as both fickle and a demand for special treatment or the rattles get thrown out of the pram.
Whether Westminster has the balls to stand up to Holyrood is one thing. Brussels will stand up to the UK. We need to leave under Article 50, the article can actually make it difficult for us to leave. Though the EU would be very foolish to hold the UK against its will. However once we confirm a Remain vote, assuming that happens, the Brussels lawmakers can hold to that and if a sec ond referenda is held its results could be voted down on the grounds that we have already had a fair and democratic choice and we chose as a nation to remain.
If we vote in we are IN. If we vote out we are OUT.

Herzlos wrote:

If we leave now, it's going to be an uphill struggle to get back in, and we'll be given absolutely no special treament.

If the EU fails and the UK also fails as a result of Brexit, we might be invited to amend the mistake for everyojnes sake. This is a tactical reason for voting Brexit right up to the point that you are calculating on a lose/lose to get the second chance.
If the UK fails and the EU doesnt, we wont get in easily and will have to make concessions. If the EU fails and the UK doesnt, we wont want to. and if it works out for the EU and UK then Brexit was the right move.
We dont know.

Herzlos wrote:

So leaving now because of something that may/may not happen seems a bit short sighted.

To be fair to the Brexit argument what they are primarily arguing is fairly certain. If we are out we wont be dictated to by unelected Brussels bureaucrats. All other Brexit arguments, and all aerguments for remain are all based on guesswork. Will be we better off in or out. Frankly nobody knows for absolute certain, we just have different preferred guesses and vested interests,

**zedmeister**

Herzlos wrote:

The thing is, we can always stay in now and then leave in the future if no reform happens or something else happens we dislike. If we leave now, it's going to be an uphill struggle to get back in, and we'll be given absolutely no special treament. So leaving now because of something that may/may not happen seems a bit short sighted.

That argument can be easily be spun about for Remain: Why remain in a bureaucracy that is so fundamentally resistant to reform? If we remain now, it'll be a bigger struggle to Leave in future. So remaining now because of the promise of reform that may/may not be achievable seems a bit short sighted. That's assuming that our elected representatives aren't secretly forging ahead with more integration. Cameron's duplicitous Turkey accession debacle and Heseltine's "we will join the euro" car crash LBC interview are good reasons to not trust what they have to say.

Besides, should we leave and get through the short term shock, get everything in order, I can't see a good reason at present on why we'd want to rejoin?

**Herzlos**

Orlanth wrote:

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

The thing is, we can always stay in now and then leave in the future if no reform happens or something else happens we dislike.

No. We can't.
That is a Salmondism, the idea that you can have repeated referenda at will. The idea of multiple Scottish referenda is very unpopular with the rest of the UK as it is seen as both fickle and a demand for special treatment or the rattles get thrown out of the pram.
Whether Westminster has the balls to stand up to Holyrood is one thing. Brussels will stand up to the UK. We need to leave under Article 50, the article can actually make it difficult for us to leave. Though the EU would be very foolish to hold the UK against its will. However once we confirm a Remain vote, assuming that happens, the Brussels lawmakers can hold to that and if a sec ond referenda is held its results could be voted down on the grounds that we have already had a fair and democratic choice and we chose as a nation to remain.
If we vote in we are IN. If we vote out we are OUT.

So the only reason we can't leave later is fear of having a 2nd referendum?
I agree we don't want to do it constantly, but we shouldn't rule it out if the situation changes. I'd have been all for a few more options "In, Leave now, Potentially Leave later"

To be fair to the Brexit argument what they are primarily arguing is fairly certain. If we are out we wont be dictated to by unelected Brussels bureaucrats. All other Brexit arguments, and all aerguments for remain are all based on guesswork. Will be we better off in or out. Frankly nobody knows for absolute certain, we just have different preferred guesses and vested interests,

I might be totally wrong here, but aren't all of the EU beaurocrats elected by someone? To say we need to get away from unelected decision makers whilst we still have the House of Lords (which I fully support - they provide a good set of balances) and civil servants, seems a bit bizarre.
Even if ithat is the premise; what problem are we trying to solve? That we don't get our own way often enough?

Automatically Appended Next Post:

zedmeister wrote:
Herzlos wrote:

The thing is, we can always stay in now and then leave in the future if no reform happens or something else happens we dislike. If we leave now, it's going to be an uphill struggle to get back in, and we'll be given absolutely no special treament. So leaving now because of something that may/may not happen seems a bit short sighted.

That argument can be easily be spun about for Remain: Why remain in a bureaucracy that is so fundamentally resistant to reform? If we remain now, it'll be a bigger struggle to Leave in future. So remaining now because of the promise of reform that may/may not be achievable seems a bit short sighted. That's assuming that our elected representatives aren't secretly forging ahead with more integration. Cameron's duplicitous Turkey accession debacle and Heseltine's "we will join the euro" car crash LBC interview are good reasons to not trust what they have to say.

Why would it be a bigger struggle to leave later? Because we'd (potentially) be more integrated? I can't see us integrating further or joining the euro.

Besides, should we leave and get through the short term shock, get everything in order, I can't see a good reason at present on why we'd want to rejoin?

Agreed. If we leave, and everything works out, we still have some industry and get all of our trade deals up and running without any overbearing compromises, then there'd be absolutely no reason to join the EU; it clearly isn't needed.
However, I'm not sure the odds of that happening are high enough to gamble with my sons future.

**zedmeister**

Herzlos wrote:
I might be totally wrong here, but aren't all of the EU beaurocrats elected by someone? To say we need to get away from unelected decision makers whilst we still have the House of Lords (which I fully support - they provide a good set of balances) and civil servants, seems a bit bizarre.
Even if ithat is the premise; what problem are we trying to solve? That we don't get our own way often enough?

First, I'll state that I agree with you on the Lords somewhat - they're a useful blocking mechanism. However, the recent reforms have reduced their effectiveness in that regard and they seem filled with placemen these days.

From how I understand things, it is the commission he is referring to amongst others and they're not directly elected. They're nominated by EU heads of state and voted in by the MEP's. So there is a deficit there in that we can't vote on, for example, who the EU president is and their manifesto for their term. I'd argue that the Commission and the modern house of lords share many similarities - they're all political appointees.

**godardc**

I wish you the best, be it in Europe or on your own !

**zedmeister**

Herzlos wrote:
Why would it be a bigger struggle to leave later? Because we'd (potentially) be more integrated? I can't see us integrating further or joining the euro.

And it's the potentially bit that makes me want to vote Leave. The more integrated we become that harder it is to leave. As mentioned above, there's plenty of characters who want to take us in further.

**Orlanth**

Herzlos wrote:

So the only reason we can't leave later is fear of having a 2nd referendum?

Yep, that basically covers it. But it is a very rational concern, not a scare.

Herzlos wrote:

I agree we don't want to do it constantly, but we shouldn't rule it out if the situation changes. I'd have been all for a few more options "In, Leave now, Potentially Leave later"

From the point of view of people outside the ballot but effected by the outcome anything more than once is 'constantly'. I will apply the argument against the Uk that I used for the Scottish indyref.
- You get one partisan choice of IN or out. Once that is done its final, because if there is to be a second ballot we (those outside the ballot area) want to be balloted.

The French for instance have good reason to be concerned at Brexit. Even if Brexit is good for the UK (let us assume it is); is it good for France? Does it effect France? Most certainly, and possibly very heavily just as iScotland would effect me in London.
We can get away with one Brexit vote, IN or OUT, with sole concern of what is best for the UK.
If we ever demand a second one we are asking for special status within Europe. Aka "Give us what we want or we demand another Indyref."
Brussels will be well within its means and rights to demand that our previous vote is binding.

Perhaps in another fifty years, or if the EU disintigrates by itself then the UK can ask out again.

Please note that just having this ballot has done damage to the EU, in terms of economic uncertainty damage the rest of the voters in the EU have no say over. That is just not fair on them. Yet 'will a Brexit damage the French/German/Italian/Spanish etc etc economy' is just not on the agenda here. We could only rightfully get away with that the once.

From a UK perspective we see this first hand with the constant murmuring of a second Scottish independence referendum, which would damage the English economy yet Englishmen presumably have no ballot over. Therefore it is in the interests of the 90% of Britons who don't vote in Scotland not to allow the other 10% to dictate terms, beyond the single solitary privileged referendum, which has now already happened.
There are already been speculations for London to seceed from the UK, kid you not, goodle it,for reason for London not therefore needing to share its vast wealth with the rest of the UK. This however ias just a culture of 'i'm alright jack' where only the welfare of one subcommunity matters. Where does it end?

**welshhoppo**

I think my Facebook has a war going on tonight. Both sides are ripping into each other.

**Orlanth**

godardc wrote:
I wish you the best, be it in Europe or on your own !

Thank you.

**notprop**

godardc wrote:
I wish you the best, be it in Europe or on your own !

Well said that man.

But whatever the vote we will still be 21 miles away if you need us, we have t changed the phone number just moved some furniture.

Just watching the Paxo debate on C4. Absolutely terrible. It's like the Jeremy Kyle programme with Celebs, talking heads and ex-politicians. They all want their say no matter how banal. Half of which are bemoaning the tone of debate while shouting across everyone else. Paxo is useless in a group situation, said the actress to the.......

**Compel**

welshhoppo wrote:
I think my Facebook has a war going on tonight. Both sides are ripping into each other.

Yup, ditto. Been seeing some real gems, myself.

Meanwhile, I'm still reading my ways through the 5 EU Presidents Report.

**welshhoppo**

It's a good read. Terrible, but still good.

**Frozocrone**

welshhoppo wrote:
I think my Facebook has a war going on tonight. Both sides are ripping into each other.

Same. Nothing short of a Facebook-off.

Mind, I'm participating in these because some of the things I'm seeing (such as Turkey's visa-free travel and the notion that we will make new trade agreements) is ludicrous. As an EU member, we can block Turkey as and when we like. As for new trade agreements, we'll have to start from scratch, since all our trade agreements were done through the EU - and we don't have much to offer, what we mostly do now is bargain off the services of other EU countries.

I'm hoping Friday will be good to me.

**Tamereth**

In the last 48 hours this has become a huge thing, it's all my friends and family can talk about. And some people are very passionate about it. Friends I've know for years have had full blown rows about it face to face, because their on different sides. Nobodies ever given this much of a don't bypass the language filter like this. Reds8n about a general election.

The way I see it the EU is failing. Things are going to get worse in the next couple of years. Expect Greece to be all over the news next month as their next quest to borrow more money from the rest of Europe is due again. The real stupid thing is their borrowing money from the IMF and European central bank not to improve their country, but to repay debts to the IMF and ECB? Work out the logic there.

So do we jump ship now and forge our own way ahead, or wait for it all to fall apart, drag us into recession and then go our own way to try to recover?

My main frustration is the constant calls to listen to the experts. The same ones that did such a bang up job of avoiding the crash in 2008. And have done such a great job since. (I've helped out at the local food back, it's scary how many people need it. We didn't have one 10 years ago)

I've worked in the financial services industry since the early 2000's. I can assure you nobody has a clue what will happen whether we vote in or out.

**Orlanth**

Tamereth wrote:

I've worked in the financial services industry since the early 2000's. I can assure you nobody has a clue what will happen whether we vote in or out.

I expected as much, but m ost pundits have not enough integrity to say this but have to load their comments.

We don't know the outcome financially, but both options have pitfalls. We have to go with what we want.
This vote really is a leap in the dark, the only certainty that brings is stock market chaos. The UK is being urged to vote Remain because it will prevent a market jitter. Ok fair enough, that makes sense from the point of view in Wall St etc. But market jitters happen, they happen after earthquakes or after elections. This is just another one. If the Uk votes Leave the Pound will fall as will the Euro. Some people will panic and lose money, some people will be unlucky when they speculate and try to make a personal profit and lose money. Some people will make a killing. But the sky will not fall in. We will still be here and the markets will normalise over time.
Frankly I dont give a rodents rectum about the stock market jitters, because they don't matter half as much as people think. Markets are fluid, they got up and down like the tide, and suckers and incautious players drown.. Don't vote leave because it might upset my share portfolio doesn't cut it when the issue is whether or not the UK wants to be a part of a European centralised state.. The political ramifications though, they are clear, we are safer out because the EU is progressing into an anti-democratic state, and the UK delegates have long been shown to be outside the de facto power structure despite being a major contributor.

**TheMeanDM**

Didn't the UK have to vote to enter the EU in the first place?

**Sarouan**

Whatever you guys decide, we should respect it.

Remember, divided you will fall. You're all in the same country, you have the right to decide for your own future.

**Kilkrazy**

Orlanth wrote:
Tamereth wrote:

I've worked in the financial services industry since the early 2000's. I can assure you nobody has a clue what will happen whether we vote in or out.

I expected as much, but m ost pundits have not enough integrity to say this but have to load their comments.

That's possibly because 90% of economists and business leaders know that Brexit will be bad. No-one can say exactly how bad, but there isn't any possibility that it will be good. Anyone assuring you they have no clue is just clueless.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

TheMeanDM wrote:
Didn't the UK have to vote to enter the EU in the first place?

This is the second referendum. No reason why there couldn't be a third.

**messhallcook**

Frozocrone wrote:

As for new trade agreements, we'll have to start from scratch, since all our trade agreements were done through the EU - and we don't have much to offer, what we mostly do now is bargain off the services of other EU countries.

Ugh.. I hadn't even thought of that.

What time is this big vote/decision in UTC time? or maybe GMT? (most folks use GMT right? I'm so used to UTC from my time at the undersea cable station).

EDIT... haha Title of thread says what date... 23rd... okay so its about 6:30AM there now right? is it gonna be like a noon thing?

**Frozocrone**

Voting polls open at 7am for us and will close at 10pm. Counting the votes goes through the night and should be done by 7am.

EDIT: That's UTC time. For the US, voting occurs between:

Eastern: 2am to 5pm
Central: 1am to 4pm
Mountain: 12pm to 3pm
Pacific: 11pm to 2pm

I hope I got that right. Having only one time zone to convert to is confusing.

EDIT 2: I did not. Amended.