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I am interested to see the turnout. There 46.5 million people eligible to vote, which is quite a logistical task to manage, however turnout for referendums is often fairly low -- 42%. I think it will be higher today.

Yesterday's private advert in The Metro rightly IMO has drawn plaudits from all sides.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-brexit-immigration-what-it-means-facts-live-updates-newspaper-advert-leave-remain-a7095191.html



I am afraid some of the UK's problems are due to failure of government. This is a factor that is likely to stay with us within or without the EU.

 notprop wrote:
That just means you know/knew allot of racists. Personally I've not seen any such thing.

You're lucky.

I've also pruned a good number of people with appalling spelling.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I am interested to see the turnout. There 46.5 million people eligible to vote, which is quite a logistical task to manage, however turnout for referendums is often fairly low -- 42%. I think it will be higher today.

Yesterday's private advert in The Metro rightly IMO has drawn plaudits from all sides.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-brexit-immigration-what-it-means-facts-live-updates-newspaper-advert-leave-remain-a7095191.html



I am afraid some of the UK's problems are due to failure of government. This is a factor that is likely to stay with us within or without the EU.

There is doubt on whether those stats are accurate. The ONS released figures that showed that 257,000 EU nationals came to Britain from Jan to Sept 2015. However 630,000 NI numbers were issued to non EU citizens over the same period. Again more spin.

And, if the 630,000 figure is accurate, then after two years, that is 1.2m then after 4 years, 2.5m and so on. Do we have the infrastructure and ability to cope with those numbers? Failure of government indeed...

Daily Mail is reporting that the population increased by 5 million in the last decade.

There isn't any doubt. The ONS stats can be found here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration

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 zedmeister wrote:

And, if the 630,000 figure is accurate, then after two years, that is 1.2m then after 4 years, 2.5m and so on. Do we have the infrastructure and ability to cope with those numbers? Failure of government indeed...

That's all as maybe, and of course it's been a potent argument in this referendum.

But folks are voting on this basis when there's no real evidence the situation will be any different out of the EU. Leave are telling voters there will be more immigration from Pakistan. Andrew Lilico, one of the two leading Leave economists say there will be no real reduction - perhaps a symbolic one.

We can argue the merits of immigration forever and doubtless never agree, perhaps it's just a gut feeling. But what I'm saying is, Out only registers a protest, it won't change the situation.

I understand that people are voting this way - it's a vote against globalisation. But globalisation will roll on, whether we like it or not, however we vote.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There isn't any doubt. The ONS stats can be found here.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration

Indeed, here's the report that produced that 'doubt':

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/noteonthedifferencebetweennationalinsurancenumberregistrationsandtheestimateoflongterminternationalmigration/2016


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 Hivefleet Oblivion wrote:
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 zedmeister wrote:

And, if the 630,000 figure is accurate, then after two years, that is 1.2m then after 4 years, 2.5m and so on. Do we have the infrastructure and ability to cope with those numbers? Failure of government indeed...

That's all as maybe, and of course it's been a potent argument in this referendum.

But folks are voting on this basis when there's no real evidence the situation will be any different out of the EU. Leave are telling voters there will be more immigration from Pakistan. Andrew Lilico, one of the two leading Leave economists say there will be no real reduction - perhaps a symbolic one.

We can argue the merits of immigration forever and doubtless never agree, perhaps it's just a gut feeling. But what I'm saying is, Out only registers a protest, it won't change the situation.

I understand that people are voting this way - it's a vote against globalisation. But globalisation will roll on, whether we like it or not, however we vote.

Just for the record: immigration in general doesn't concern me. I was trying to highlight the muddiness of the campaign and the questionable figures used on both sides.

I disagree that voting Out registers a protest. I didn't tick the Leave box in order to make a point or stick two fingers up.

The ONS wrote:NINo registrations data are not a good measure of LTIM, but they do provide a valuable source of information to highlight emerging changes in patterns of migration.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

The ONS wrote:NINo registrations data are not a good measure of LTIM, but they do provide a valuable source of information to highlight emerging changes in patterns of migration.

Yes, I have read it and I get the point you are trying to make. However:

As the March report set out, one of the main reasons for the divergence between LTIM and NINos is likely to be that LTIM does not (and is not intended to) pick up short-term migration. Consequently, when we add STIM data to LTIM data we can see that there is a much closer parallel between measured immigration and the numbers of NINo registrations, which is shown in figure 2 above.

For those staying less than a year, they still need services, a place to live, maybe medical help if they get in trouble, etc, etc.

Yes, and so NiNos are issued, resulting in a large number of NiNos than the actual number of long term immigrants. Short term immigrants typically do not require much in the way of public services, live in privately rented accommodation and so on.

Also note we are concerned with net migration, and issuance of NiNos tells us nothing about people leaving the country.

I live just across the road from the local polling station and have been disappointed with the attendance so far, very few people turning up compared to a general election or even local council ones

Henley seemed busy this morning, and it's market day so a lot of people will be in town for that. The polling station is in the town hall in the middle of the market place.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I live just across the road from the local polling station and have been disappointed with the attendance so far, very few people turning up compared to a general election or even local council ones

Day's not over yet. Plenty of time to get your vote in.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I live just across the road from the local polling station and have been disappointed with the attendance so far, very few people turning up compared to a general election or even local council ones

Give it time. It's a Thursday and halfway through the working day. It will probably pick up steam after 6pm and have queues forming around 9pm.

Also I have been asked/canvassed by three different people while going from my home to the polling station to the local station.

If there is a low turnout it will be from stay-at-homes. Commuters like me are likely to vote on their way home. (I usually vote first thing.)

I voted too. Was in and out in no time.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Yes, and so NiNos are issued, resulting in a large number of NiNos than the actual number of long term immigrants. Short term immigrants typically do not require much in the way of public services, live in privately rented accommodation and so on.

Aye, but they will need access to services - they'll still need a place to live, may need medical care, etc all creating pressure. Add the extra number of short term migrants to the population increase figures release today, and you're getting close to 750-800,000 new bodies that need accommodating for the year.

Voted a couple of hours ago was fairly busy i hope turn out is high.

leave for me simply because of info from the five pres report, hesiltine's comments, paxman in brussels, and other sources but finally junker saying theres no more reform advailable. Sure it could mean for now but if we are out we wouldnt care about eu reform so it (to me) means thats it. And thats not good enough.

Short term migration is not cumulative. The majority of such people are students and seasons workers, who pay their way in college and accommodation fees and taxes on their earnings. They do not create massive demand for public services.

By the criterion of someone comes to the UK and might need to go to hospital, we should ban all tourists. There's about 36 million of them a year.

Just had an eventful walk down to the polling station at the bottom of the road from where I live...and ended up following a stray dog around for 5 min making sure it got home.

We don't have a lot of stray dogs round where I live but we get stray geese.



Note these are immigrants from Canada!

#CapTheGeeseMigrants

 zedmeister wrote:


Aye, but they will need access to services - they'll still need a place to live, may need medical care, etc all creating pressure. Add the extra number of short term migrants to the population increase figures release today, and you're getting close to 750-800,000 new bodies that need accommodating for the year.

They benefit us. Figures show that EU people working or studying here contribute more than Brits do. Without them, public services will suffer. Overseas students, too, are vital to our economy.

The figures seem to indicate that out-of-EU migrants don't make a positive contribution, but they still on average contribute more than average Brits - who cost more than they contribute, mainly because the whole economy is in deficit.

Most out of EU migrants are admitted through the points based system introduced in the late 2000s, which pretty much guarantees they have good jobs to do and will be paying taxes.

As well as that there are foreign spouses, who don't get admitted unless the British partner is earning over £18,000 (this may have gone up since I imported my own wife.)

Problems with flooding in the South East of England. Given that is where the bulk of the UK's population lives, I wonder what effect it will have on the vote.

You can be assured that Leave voters will climb mountains and swim rivers to get to the polling station

Just got back from voting 'out'.
There were some older peeps hanging around outside talking about anything but the referendum, inside three people behind the desk, but otherwise i was the only person there when i went (~12 noon)

chose out based on many things - the lack of trust i have in the EU as it stands (negotiating with genocidal despots, breaking their own rules while insisting absolute compliance from others, making threats to coerce a nation, megalomaniac leaders, creation of a new nuclear armed super-state on russias border, hypocritical claims of being an organisation of 'peace' while trying to create an EU military), the fact we get our seat on the World Trade Organisation back again, we get control of our own fishing and import quotas, no more "financial bullets aimed at the heart of london" (thanks, Osbourne!)

My entire life i've been used to being the outsider and alone, it's comfortable for me - so voting out isn't a 'leap in the dark' for me; as i found in the rest of my life, it's a step forward into boundless opportunity, the only limit being ourselves.

I believe that there is a maximum size for any government to be before it becomes a parasite on it's people - Westminster is dangerously close to this size and the EU has past that size and is seeking even more power and control.

I really hope we gtfo, some of my friends are from india; because of the lop-sided migration policy we're left with after EU shenanigans, we're kicking them out if we stay in, despite the linked history.

Just getting ready to go down to make my vote. Not that I think the uk will be waking up to a leave vote tomorrow mind.

I too, have ENGAGED IN DEMOCRACY. The power is real. After all the lead up, the ballot paper was disappointingly small, really.

I'm hoping for a last-minute major swing to Remain, and a sufficiently strong result that we can avoid a neverendum situation; however, the chance of that seems relatively low. While playing a friend at 40k this morning, he commented that, "With a referendum, you have to accept the chance of it being a dominant political issue for twenty years afterwards, unless you get a strong result one way."

I'm also hoping to stop rolling 1s on my Terminator armour saves, by the way. That's not happened yet...

 Charles Rampant wrote:
I'm also hoping to stop rolling 1s on my Terminator armour saves, by the way. That's not happened yet...

Bloody immigrants, stealing our 2+s!

The Daily Mail is reporting on a funny conspiracy theory with Brexit voters calling for people to take pens into the voting booths instead of pencil so their votes can't be changed.

I didn't do that...though I admit that there was a pen already in the booth which I used instead of the pencil.