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Its not really surprising to see xwing in this position, it has 3 cross overs for its buy in, hobbyist of wargaming, general board gamers (as its easy to play n relatively cheap to start up), model collectors or just people who want a cheapish star wars item (im sure loads of people have bought xwing that never intend to play the game they just want a space ship from star wars). GW doesnt have that cross platform appeal to the same extend.

It's not like GW have had over 30 years to build that sort of cross platform appeal is it?

Perhaps they don't have an IP with quite the same weight behind it, but there's absolutely no reason they couldn't have very firmly made in roads into 3 of the 4 customer types you mention. (One could even argue that SW fans are predisposed to have a little interest in 40K items, correctly marketed.)

FFG had a head start in IP terms, but they've taken GW to school in terms of how you leverage that IP into a successful product.

GW had a few great opportunities to draw in the videogame crowd with Dawn of War, DoW2, and Space marine, but they totally failed to leverage that too. I mean we finally got a Sternguard kit that could make the characters from the Space Marine game what, three or four years after the game came out and the studio making it had to shut down?

And of course there is now (finally, I've wanted this for YEARS now) a Total War: Warhammer game coming. It looks amazing, and a great way to get people into the game, Total War is a popular, long running serious with so much more reach to introduce new people to Fantasy than GW's 'advertizing'.

And it is set in the world GW recently destroyed, based on a now discontinued game.

 Azreal13 wrote:


A distinction without a difference?

Growth is growth, we might be seeing a SW bubble, but when/if that bursts, there'll still be a greater number of people exposed to the wider tabletop gaming hobby than previously.

Except that do we want a situation where there is only one single dominant game at the stores and clubs? People have been stating in the past how the decline of GW is a good thing as it allows diversity into the hobby and that there isn't a single dominant game that overshadows all other games anymore? Now that X-wing is surging, will we be replacing every table with 40k on it with X-wing instead? Would like to see the hobby grow across the board, not have a single limited game just overtake everything instead and smothering other games.

Having x wing in the lead does not equal x wing having 99% market share.

Another of the good things about X WIng is that because it's pretty easy and cheap to pick up and play, it's pretty easy to put down again and play a different pretty easy and cheap game.

You mean like how the Wii outsold the PS3 and 360 by being every hardcore gamers 2nd system, and every family's only one?

Small buy in and smaller total purchases mean that X-Wing must have a lot more buyers than 40k.

Honestly, I think that X-Wing has taken over the 12 year olds crowd- a market that GW hasn't been getting of late, since the buy in for 40k or even AoS is still very high compared to other miniatures games.

Kilkrazy wrote:Remember that the ICV2 survey doesn't include any of GW's own sales results through their shops or web site.

However if the market as a whole has experienced further growth, it seems likely that GW has been slipping bacl again, given their static results.

Sure, ICv2 represents North American retailers.

GW stores are not very common in North America. I could drive for nine hours to the closest one to me, for example (whereas, my town has four game stores within a fifteen minute drive). I went ahead and tried out GW's store finder, and put in a 50 mile radius. It did let me know about the store that is a days' drive away, but it also gave me fifteen independent retailers within 50 miles of me (there were even some on the list that I haven't been to).

I honestly doubt that including them would make much difference -especially since GW has reported large losses in their retail arm for the time frame we're dealing with, a time in which independent hobby retailers are reporting their seventh year of growth (meaning their exclusive products might be doing worse than the industry as a whole).

GW online sales might actually make a difference, that one is harder to tell.

The big news here is that ICv2 has gathered this data twice a year for many years now- and every time they've done it in the past, 40k has been at the very top.

This number might not represent 40k slipping, because there is plenty of reason to believe that X-Wing sales shot up alongside the movie buzz. It might also represent 40k slipping, though.

This isn't the End of GW, by any stretch. But it is a sign that they need to try something new.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
ANOTHER HUGE THING:

These numbers DO NOT INCLUDE KICKSTARTER!

If KS is taking sales away from hobby retailers, it isn't showing in the 7th year of consecutive growth (with some KS projects making the top 10 board games).



edit- added my GW store finder experiment.

I think we are past Peak Kickstarter, but there's no doubt it grew quickly from nothing and soaked up a lot of hobby dollars over the past seven years.

What I'm saying is, I think that Kickstarter has helped grow the industry rather than sink it. Some retailers keep bemoaning KS as if company's are stealing from them by seeking funding this way, but it turns out that:

1- The retailers report growth for every year in which KS has existed.
2- At least some KS games do sell through retail channels just fine (I noticed Blood Rage on the top 10 this year, and I've seen Boss Monster and Zombicide make it in the past).

CMON games seem to be selling just fine through retail channels- despite their being the most KS exclusive and KS discounts company out there.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Another of the good things about X WIng is that because it's pretty easy and cheap to pick up and play, it's pretty easy to put down again and play a different pretty easy and cheap game.

One of my players pointed out that because the models are prepainted, he doesn't have the attachment to them that he does for a game like Warhammer - so swapping to another game would be easier. (That wouldn't work for me - I'd still end up painting them....)

The Auld Grump, more of a Star Trek TOS man, me....


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 odinsgrandson wrote:
What I'm saying is, I think that Kickstarter has helped grow the industry rather than sink it. Some retailers keep bemoaning KS as if company's are stealing from them by seeking funding this way, but it turns out that:

1- The retailers report growth for every year in which KS has existed.
2- At least some KS games do sell through retail channels just fine (I noticed Blood Rage on the top 10 this year, and I've seen Boss Monster and Zombicide make it in the past).

CMON games seem to be selling just fine through retail channels- despite their being the most KS exclusive and KS discounts company out there.

Part of that also depends on the retailer - I know of at least one retailer that refuses to carry any product that was launched through Kickstarter. (Because... he is... an idiot. Making a potential customer go online to look for products online does not help his bottom line.)

Another joined in and promoted the original Bones Kickstarter - picking up the retail pack that was offered, way back then, and selling the bits off before the package even came in.

Both have been in the business for decades.

One is struggling, the other is booming.

Strangely enough, the one that supports Kickstarter is the one that is booming....

The Auld Grump - not just because of Kickstarter, mind....

Being good to your customers makes a huge difference, and part of that is stocking things that they like. I've seen game store owners refuse to order in things that customers are willing to pre-pay for because they don't like that particular rules system.

For my part, I don't feel like I owe anything to someone just because they own a store. To be an FLGS you must at least be:

Friendly- part of being a decent human being, and goes a long way to illicit my support
Local - You need to be near enough to me that it isn't a huge hassle to go to your store
Game- you need to stock the games that I play. I mean, really.
Store- you need to be willing to sell me the things that I want to buy.


I've seen combinations such as:
FGS - fifty minute drive
FLS - won't stock games that I want to play
LGS -not friendly
FLG - won't keep stock of anything- we're just supposed to order everything from them as if we were ordering online- but great gaming space

Maybe that last one has a better business model than I expect, because they seem to stay open with no stock.

 odinsgrandson wrote:
Being good to your customers makes a huge difference, and part of that is stocking things that they like. I've seen game store owners refuse to order in things that customers are willing to pre-pay for because they don't like that particular rules system.

For my part, I don't feel like I owe anything to someone just because they own a store. To be an FLGS you must at least be:

Friendly- part of being a decent human being, and goes a long way to illicit my support
Local - You need to be near enough to me that it isn't a huge hassle to go to your store
Game- you need to stock the games that I play. I mean, really.
Store- you need to be willing to sell me the things that I want to buy.


I've seen combinations such as:
FGS - fifty minute drive
FLS - won't stock games that I want to play
LGS -not friendly
FLG - won't keep stock of anything- we're just supposed to order everything from them as if we were ordering online- but great gaming space

Maybe that last one has a better business model than I expect, because they seem to stay open with no stock.

Oh, he's definitely an FLGS - except when he gets a chip on his shoulder.

He refuses to carry Kings of War, Reaper, and Games Workshop. He will special order them, but will complain about the companies when you ask him to.

But he is the place to go for WARMACHINE.

Or was, now that Privateer Press has a Kickstarter... that may change....

The new Warhammer store, on the other hand... is not doing so well.... People come in, look at the stuff, go 'oohhh!' then look at the prices and go 'noooo!'

The Auld Grump

Over the past 26 years due to mergers and distributors going out of business, the distribution business of selling games (and comics) are a select few. Kickstarter And other crow sourcing groups are more or less a direct result of this consolidation of the "middle man". There are a lot of games that do not make it to the retailers because of the demands that are placed coming from the distributors (and publishers) of today.

What iTunes did to the music industry, Crowd source is doing to the entertainment industry. Overall I think it is a good thing.

If you want to succeed in this world you must know everything about "your sphere of influence" and what can you influence. A successful retailer will know what sells in his area and what does not. He will also try out new possibilities to increase sales. One that does not stagnates and eventually over time will fail.


For the average person who wants an alternative to video games we are having a renaissance with options. Whether it comes from a brick&mortar, internet business, or crowd sourcing, we now have choices of games that we did not have 12+ years ago.

And again that is a good thing.

I would also like to point out "shapeways" or 3D printing has an effect.
I am supplementing many miniatures games with creations from there.
I think it does not have a huge impact now, but I can see it being more telling in the future.

 Adam LongWalker wrote:
Over the past 26 years due to mergers and distributors going out of business, the distribution business of selling games (and comics) are a select few. Kickstarter And other crow sourcing groups are more or less a direct result of this consolidation of the "middle man". There are a lot of games that do not make it to the retailers because of the demands that are placed coming from the distributors (and publishers) of today.

What iTunes did to the music industry, Crowd source is doing to the entertainment industry. Overall I think it is a good thing.

If you want to succeed in this world you must know everything about "your sphere of influence" and what can you influence. A successful retailer will know what sells in his area and what does not. He will also try out new possibilities to increase sales. One that does not stagnates and eventually over time will fail.


For the average person who wants an alternative to video games we are having a renaissance with options. Whether it comes from a brick&mortar, internet business, or crowd sourcing, we now have choices of games that we did not have 12+ years ago.

And again that is a good thing.

Heh, I have made some amazingly similar posts.

In addition, a lot of smaller game companies used to rely on getting loans from banks in order to produce more product.

Then the banks changed the way they handled business loans, causing a lot of the smallish, or even not-so-smallish game companies to fold.

An example is what happened to West End Games.

Kickstarter is picking up where the banks left off, again allowing smaller companies the cash flow that they need to produce product.

The Auld Grump

 Talizvar wrote:
I would also like to point out "shapeways" or 3D printing has an effect.
I am supplementing many miniatures games with creations from there.
I think it does not have a huge impact now, but I can see it being more telling in the future.

Shapeways is interesting because it's allowing a lot of small creators to make and sell unusual models like modern warships, that aren't being done by any large companies. Such people could also make conversion parts and even complete figures. However, I don't see it growing beyond a boutique industry.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Shapeways is interesting because it's allowing a lot of small creators to make and sell unusual models like modern warships, that aren't being done by any large companies. Such people could also make conversion parts and even complete figures. However, I don't see it growing beyond a boutique industry.

I agree at the moment the models tend to cost more than if the original manufacturer were to get around to selling the product.
For my ground-war X-wing project I have been doing, the creator is even providing the cards and stand stat-card for printing out if wanted.

It would be conceivable to have "made to order" games.
I would say that a game could start as a 3D printed game and if demand ramps up alarmingly, then classic injection mold dies may be required (luckily they already have a 3D model to work with).

Shapeways is already printing in colour and in metals so there are few limitations there.
I think the only limitation is how the technology progresses and if it can catch up to the economy of scale injection molds provide.

What makes all this very exciting is that various publishing middle-men are bypassed which is what makes kickstarter a similarly compelling platform of it's own.

To me, the 3D printing is like a desktop printer. Resin and metal is like a sheet-fed printing press, and injection moulding is like web offset litho.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
To me, the 3D printing is like a desktop printer. Resin and metal is like a sheet-fed printing press, and injection moulding is like web offset litho.

Or, for the inexpensive at home 3D printers, like a lightbox, Linotype machine, straight rules, razor blades, and beeswax. (Yes, I have done work that way... about the time that Star Wars was amazing audiences.)

Which is not to say that I do not lust after a 3D printer... but then I also enjoyed working with a lightbox, Linotype machine, straight rules, razor blades, and beeswax....

The Auld Grump

I just think hardly anyone will have a need for a home printer. If you are a keen modeller and convertor like Insaniak, it will make sense as long as you also are good at 3D modelling. For everyone else, just take your model data file, bought off the internet or made for you by a 3D artist, down to the nearest print shopand have them print it for you.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I just think hardly anyone will have a need for a home printer. If you are a keen modeller and convertor like Insaniak, it will make sense as long as you also are good at 3D modelling. For everyone else, just take your model data file, bought off the internet or made for you by a 3D artist, down to the nearest print shop and have them print it for you.

Me, I look at the home 3D printers, and think 'Terrain', not 'Miniatures'.

Inorganic shapes help mitigate the weakness of the medium - and I am a heck of a lot better modeling 3D inorganics than I am at modeling, oh... hands, for example....

The Auld Grump, Lord and Lady, I suck at making hands....

Yeah, terrain is a great place for print your own stuff. I don't see them taking all that much business away from larger companies (and at the moment, an affordable home printer can't keep up with industry standards for quality).

3D printers are changing the industry, but it is mostly on the designers end of things. And by that, I mean it is easy to tell that all of GW's kits for the past few years have been digitally sculpted (there are signs).

Look all the good things FFlight is giving as prices for xwing tournaments.

https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/2016/1/27/system-open-spoils/