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AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I hadn't actually considered Citadel dropping by 12%, that actually paints a much poorer picture of AoS because it's not like they managed to maintain sales with AoS, they actually lost quite considerable sales and FW picked up the slack.

That makes me wonder where the "boxed games" element of revenue is sitting.

I assume that it's with FW (I remember rumours that the boxed games were being produced/managed by FW - but I'm not 100% on that), if that's the case then it's difficult to compare revenue streams to prior year, as a lot of "standard" 40k stuff will be mixed in with FW. It could be that 40k is far stronger than previous with AoS tanking, or it could be that AoS is relatively strong but "standard" 40k sales have tanked with people switching to boxed games & "proper" FW stuff? Or it could be that both are roughly in line with prior year...

 Russell's teapot wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I hadn't actually considered Citadel dropping by 12%, that actually paints a much poorer picture of AoS because it's not like they managed to maintain sales with AoS, they actually lost quite considerable sales and FW picked up the slack.

That makes me wonder where the "boxed games" element of revenue is sitting.

I assume that it's with FW (I remember rumours that the boxed games were being produced/managed by FW - but I'm not 100% on that), if that's the case then it's difficult to compare revenue streams to prior year, as a lot of "standard" 40k stuff will be mixed in with FW. It could be that 40k is far stronger than previous with AoS tanking, or it could be that AoS is relatively strong but "standard" 40k sales have tanked with people switching to boxed games & "proper" FW stuff? Or it could be that both are roughly in line with prior year...

It might explain the numbers better if the boxed games are falling under FW, however on the webstore it says under the BAC description....

...command a force of beautifully detailed Citadel miniatures...

An impressive selection of detailed Citadel miniatures, including;

Silver Tower boasts a similar description.

Looking at a picture of the back of the box, it also claims they are "Citadel".

So they probably don't come under the FW heading unless there's some inconsistency in the labelling.

It's done by channel, so I think it's safe to say that FW only actually covers stuff sold via forgeworld.co.uk, the FW store, and any FW stalls/events.

The boxes sold via normal retail channels would be recorded against the channel.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I hadn't actually considered Citadel dropping by 12%, that actually paints a much poorer picture of AoS because it's not like they managed to maintain sales with AoS, they actually lost quite considerable sales and FW picked up the slack.

It could just be that the plastic HH has moved everyones spending over to FW (upgrade kits, filling out armies, general HH addiction) so aren't currently spending on AoS as much as they'd like.

It could also be indicative of pricing; quite a lot of FW stuff is cheaper than Citadel, especially if you're in a trade embargo country (DKK infantry being cheaper than Cadians in Japan, for instance).


On the AoS front, I think what isn't said is important - if AoS was doing well by any objective standard, or met expectations, they'd have said so. The annual report would have been the perfect place to trumpet how AoS is exceeding expectations and how they are seeing great things happen. In reality, all they've said is some vague statement about it doing better than a game that was canned for not doing well enough.

I just heard matt wards coming back that's terrible news for 40k, only thing worse than a Matt codex is a rulebook.

Expect another bad year for GW.

hobojebus wrote:
I just heard matt wards coming back that's terrible news for 40k, only thing worse than a Matt codex is a rulebook.

Expect another bad year for GW.

There's a line in Good Morning Vietnam that covers this. It starts "In more dire need of a..."

In other news, GW has just ensured the demise of yet another game system and fictional universe. But will somehow chug along as usual by doubling prices.

Collectors say that a £70 Leman Russ Battle Tanks with no in-game capability is still worth it, because GW is just so amazing.

 TheAuldGrump wrote:

The Auld Grump - at this point if they had a Getting Started bundle for Tomb Kings... I would be a happy Grump.

This any interest to you?



But yeah, I think GW are making the right moves now. It does mean that I'm going to be having a harder time finding some oppnents for alternative games though.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It is the shops which are Games Workshop's main means of marketing and promoting Teh HHHobby. That's why GW are prepared to spend so much on their retail network when from an accounting angle, the web and indy shops look much more successful.

Very good point but also an example of an anachronistic approach to business. That almost 36 million in operating expenses on their retail chain could be partially redirected into a more successful marketing strategy. Rather, than hoping someone walks by these out-of-the-way stores and happens to walk in and buy something, they should, in my opinion, spend some money advertising and drumming up interest in their products.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

frozenwastes wrote:
Agnosto, the more I read the report, the more I'm coming around to your way of thinking on this. While I still think a good portion of the new stores will become profitable, it seems like a good bet that the existing stores are going to decline in profitability at an even faster rate.

I wonder if there's a saturation point. GW sets up a store and maybe 2-5 years later everyone in that particular neighbourhood who is interested in the sort of thing GW sells has checked it out and either bought or not and there's not much more in the way of people to reach. And if in that time a critical mass of customers hasn't formed to drive sales by word of mouth (which GW still relies on to a huge degree) the sales flat line and drop off.

It's all my opinion but what you've outlined is mirrored in other industries. In my area, every time a new restaurant is opened, they have lines for a few months but then the curiosity is satisfied and the lines disappear with business normalizing. GW's niche market would have a higher chance of this type of experience occurring while the drop-off in interest would happen much sooner.

Generally what GW does, is they'll enter a local market where FLGSs already exist and attempt to draw customers to their store through events and other means (short of discounting). A strategy that seems to have served them well in the UK, in the past, but doesn't fit with the NA market, the large territory involved, and the strength of local stores in population centers. Applying a UK model to NA won't necessarily be as successful for a number of reasons but that doesn't seem to stop them from trying.

 agnosto wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It is the shops which are Games Workshop's main means of marketing and promoting Teh HHHobby. That's why GW are prepared to spend so much on their retail network when from an accounting angle, the web and indy shops look much more successful.

Very good point but also an example of an anachronistic approach to business. That almost 36 million in operating expenses on their retail chain could be partially redirected into a more successful marketing strategy. Rather, than hoping someone walks by these out-of-the-way stores and happens to walk in and buy something, they should, in my opinion, spend some money advertising and drumming up interest in their products.

I agree they should advertise more, however the thing is that Teh HHHobby is a very experiential sell. In the modern world children (I would say boys but it's a bit sexist) don't grow up building model kits, playing face to face board games, or creating model railway terrain, like they used to. WHFB and 40K also have particularly complicated rules to learn. All this means that the GW shop is not just a place to catch the eye of someone wandering past, it is a place where prospective customers can be taught the necessary hobby and game playing skills, and introduced to other players.

The network of veterans and clubs used to help with this by world of mouth, but GW did a lot to piss them off during the past 10 years, and I think this has had some effect on recruitment.

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frozenwastes wrote:
Agnosto, the more I read the report, the more I'm coming around to your way of thinking on this. While I still think a good portion of the new stores will become profitable, it seems like a good bet that the existing stores are going to decline in profitability at an even faster rate.

I wonder if there's a saturation point. GW sets up a store and maybe 2-5 years later everyone in that particular neighbourhood who is interested in the sort of thing GW sells has checked it out and either bought or not and there's not much more in the way of people to reach. And if in that time a critical mass of customers hasn't formed to drive sales by word of mouth (which GW still relies on to a huge degree) the sales flat line and drop off.

It's all my opinion but what you've outlined is mirrored in other industries. In my area, every time a new restaurant is opened, they have lines for a few months but then the curiosity is satisfied and the lines disappear with business normalizing. GW's niche market would have a higher chance of this type of experience occurring while the drop-off in interest would happen much sooner.

Generally what GW does, is they'll enter a local market where FLGSs already exist and attempt to draw customers to their store through events and other means (short of discounting). A strategy that seems to have served them well in the UK, in the past, but doesn't fit with the NA market, the large territory involved, and the strength of local stores in population centers. Applying a UK model to NA won't necessarily be as successful for a number of reasons but that doesn't seem to stop them from trying.

The mystery of GW is why they stopped helping FLGSs to help themselves. Mikhaila, who owns two shops in the US, used to be full of praise for the stuff he got from GW, racks, shelf-talkers, posters and kits for display or promotion. It pretty much vanished during Kirby's Crunch Time of the late 2000s. That can't have helped things. The US is simply too large and diffused for GW to be able to plant their own shops near all the FLGSs and take over their trade, like them managed in the UK.

Do we actually know US stores are doing worse than other countries, has it actually been stated somewhere? They specifically said European stores weren't doing great.

It seems they closed a bunch of stores and now under new management they are opening more, hopefully with a better strategy for it. GW obviously aren't entirely convinced the store method won't work in the US. You don't have to completely cover a country in GW's for it to be a good idea, you just have to focus on the areas of high population density and let FLGS's and mail order deal with the smaller towns.

Didn't the guys on Big Bang Theory play Settlers of Cataan on the show? Pay to have them play 40K, instant advertising. OR on a Nickelodeon teen show.

Or televise a tourney on ESPN2, like they did with M:TG back in the day. Rather than try to sell the same people redone versions of the same models and books, get it right and bring your product into the light. Make Space Hulk and Mordheim cheaper and stick them in standard stores with flyers inside advertising the main line games. Too easy.

hobojebus wrote:I just heard matt wards coming back that's terrible news for 40k, only thing worse than a Matt codex is a rulebook.

Expect another bad year for GW.

Really bringing in Matt hate that has nothing to do with him?

 Just Tony wrote:
Didn't the guys on Big Bang Theory play Settlers of Cataan on the show? Pay to have them play 40K, instant advertising. OR on a Nickelodeon teen show.

Or televise a tourney on ESPN2, like they did with M:TG back in the day. Rather than try to sell the same people redone versions of the same models and books, get it right and bring your product into the light. Make Space Hulk and Mordheim cheaper and stick them in standard stores with flyers inside advertising the main line games. Too easy.

For whatever reason GW doesn't believe in advertising outside of their stores and word of mouth. It doesn't make sense to anyone but them

I guess you could argue that it's the sort of game you want an enthusiastic vet sitting opposite you who knows the rules so a new player doesn't have to get bogged down reading rules and painting and whatnot before they even touch a game.

The best thing might be to give local stores an advertising budget and maybe a marketing person who is in charge of advertising for a handful of stores for the purpose of local level advertising to get people through the doors. But even that's difficult to do with 1 man stores.

 Selym wrote:

 TheAuldGrump wrote:
I would be a happy Grump.

Oxymoron.

You're an oxymoron!

Footdar starter kit would have been nice. Much less likely to induce rage against new Eldar players.

Grump is Scots dialect for Grey Haired Man, so, no, it really isn't as much of an oxymoron as you might think. (I am an old grey haired man, go figure.... )

The Auld Grump, who has been a Grump since his thirties, but grumpy his entire life.


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 Compel wrote:

 TheAuldGrump wrote:

The Auld Grump - at this point if they had a Getting Started bundle for Tomb Kings... I would be a happy Grump.

This any interest to you?



But yeah, I think GW are making the right moves now. It does mean that I'm going to be having a harder time finding some oppnents for alternative games though.

Heh, yes it does, and I had it preordered about a week after first seeing the pretty pictures.

But they are lacking the serpent surfers and chariots that I want.

(I have been playing Kings of War since the first beta - and have my name in the first edition Kickstarter list.)

The Auld Grump

Dang, I read it all wrong these years. I thought it was The Auld Group. I thought you were a business.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
Do we actually know US stores are doing worse than other countries, has it actually been stated somewhere? They specifically said European stores weren't doing great.

It seems they closed a bunch of stores and now under new management they are opening more, hopefully with a better strategy for it. GW obviously aren't entirely convinced the store method won't work in the US. You don't have to completely cover a country in GW's for it to be a good idea, you just have to focus on the areas of high population density and let FLGS's and mail order deal with the smaller towns.

I believe US retail is the only sector that grew last year in their retail chain; that still doesn't make it a winning strategy, especially when trade sales make retail look sad and pitiful.

Closing stores in one location and opening more in another is a hackneyed approach that shows poor corporate planning. I agree that they should focus on dense population centers but such stores should be in nice locations with ample display/gaming space, a real model approach as in the old battle bunkers. If you're going to lose money, you might as well present something nice to your customers and give those driving through from other locations a reason to stop in and look around rather than just buying from their local game store or ordering online. Seriously, why in the blue blazes would I walk into a tiny GW, 1/2 the size or smaller than every other FLGS in my city and pay full price when I can get a discount and better experience elsewhere? There is no benefit to visiting a GW branded store in most places. It's an antiquated approach to doing business in my opinion.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Just Tony wrote:
Didn't the guys on Big Bang Theory play Settlers of Cataan on the show? Pay to have them play 40K, instant advertising. OR on a Nickelodeon teen show.

Or televise a tourney on ESPN2, like they did with M:TG back in the day. Rather than try to sell the same people redone versions of the same models and books, get it right and bring your product into the light. Make Space Hulk and Mordheim cheaper and stick them in standard stores with flyers inside advertising the main line games. Too easy.

For whatever reason GW doesn't believe in advertising outside of their stores and word of mouth. It doesn't make sense to anyone but them

I guess you could argue that it's the sort of game you want an enthusiastic vet sitting opposite you who knows the rules so a new player doesn't have to get bogged down reading rules and painting and whatnot before they even touch a game.

The best thing might be to give local stores an advertising budget and maybe a marketing person who is in charge of advertising for a handful of stores for the purpose of local level advertising to get people through the doors. But even that's difficult to do with 1 man stores.

I've always suspected the reason GW doesn't advertise is because the past couple decades of leadership has been ashamed of running a toy company. Reading their financial reports I get a real strong vibe of people who'd much rather be working in something they could be taken seriously for at the rich people parties they probably attend.

"Hi Harry, this is Tom. Harry runs an oil conglomerate over in Sweden, Tom. They're doing quite well." Bob says, introducing two of his friends to each other.
"Nice to meet you Tom, so what company do you run?" Harry says as he tosses his top hat aside and smokes his big cigar while fingering his monocle.
"Its a uh, a retailer, distributor, and manufacturer group," Tom says with a slight stutter.
"Oh really? Vertical integration! Very impressive. What do you sell?" Harry says with a nod as he grabs a glass of 10,000 champagne from a gold plated robot server.
"Uh, well, they're little plastic jewels of wonder. . . .you use them to play this uh, game. . ." Tom says as he starts to sweat in his fake silk suit.

 Compel wrote:

 TheAuldGrump wrote:

The Auld Grump - at this point if they had a Getting Started bundle for Tomb Kings... I would be a happy Grump.

This any interest to you?



But yeah, I think GW are making the right moves now. It does mean that I'm going to be having a harder time finding some oppnents for alternative games though.

Are those models all hard plastic or are they metal add-on kits?

Back on topic, GW have me actually buying their stuff again.
I've picked up pretty much every boxed game they've made since Execution Force (only skipped Lost Patrol).
AoS also is a solid rule set that we've had fun playing.

 privateer4hire wrote:
Are those models all hard plastic or are they metal add-on kits?

They're Mantic "Empire of Dust".

http://www.manticgames.com/mantic-shop/kings-of-war/empire-of-dust.html

In general I don't like Mantic models, but the Empire of Dust actually looks pretty nice.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I hadn't actually considered Citadel dropping by 12%, that actually paints a much poorer picture of AoS because it's not like they managed to maintain sales with AoS, they actually lost quite considerable sales and FW picked up the slack.

It could just be that the plastic HH has moved everyones spending over to FW (upgrade kits, filling out armies, general HH addiction) so aren't currently spending on AoS as much as they'd like.

I was thinking about this again, it could be that BAC saved them twice, boosting both Citadel sales and FW sales.

 privateer4hire wrote:

 Compel wrote:

 TheAuldGrump wrote:

The Auld Grump - at this point if they had a Getting Started bundle for Tomb Kings... I would be a happy Grump.

This any interest to you?



But yeah, I think GW are making the right moves now. It does mean that I'm going to be having a harder time finding some oppnents for alternative games though.

Are those models all hard plastic or are they metal add-on kits?

Back on topic, GW have me actually buying their stuff again.
I've picked up pretty much every boxed game they've made since Execution Force (only skipped Lost Patrol).
AoS also is a solid rule set that we've had fun playing.

The basic skeletons and the catapult are hybrid kits using Mantic existing plastics with metal components, and the rest should be all metal (heroes, swarms, not-ushabtis)

For me what i took from this without things such like total war and even with price rise they are making a lot less money, nearly a 3rd of the profit came from Royalties. I mean GW is literally throwing out new release after new release and people are simply losing interest and/or not willing to invest in the hobby these days.

I always find this investors articles very interesting.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/344389/can-we-trust-board-healthy-games-workshop

 itsonlyme wrote:
For me what i took from this without things such like total war and even with price rise they are making a lot less money, nearly a 3rd of the profit came from Royalties. I mean GW is literally throwing out new release after new release and people are simply losing interest and/or not willing to invest in the hobby these days.

I always find this investors articles very interesting.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/344389/can-we-trust-board-healthy-games-workshop

Good read and some very astute points made. If their goal is to sell miniatures but they're dependent upon royalties to earn a profit, that should be telling them something.

 itsonlyme wrote:

I always find this investors articles very interesting.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/344389/can-we-trust-board-healthy-games-workshop

I don't know how to take it. He seems like he is a gamer and loves 40K but hates the management as most 40K/Fantasy gamers have the love/hate relationship but loves collecting the money.

If he is not a gamer at all, not sure how he really knows how the Management team really is then and how he can't trust them. He sure trusts them enough to have GW stock. He sure trusts them enough when they are giving him money. Something about his article is off.

Not in the slightest.

If some faceless entity kept handing you money, would you accept the money, or hand it back n case it needed it later?

As an investor it makes perfect sense, holding onto stock while it's making you a return and getting out before you incur a loss is pretty much the whole game. Accepting a dividend from GW while being acutely aware that the current trends mean it can't last forever and keeping a weather eye out for when it comes to time to bail out seems like perfectly sensible behaviour to me, and has nothing to do with trust.

 agnosto wrote:


Good read and some very astute points made. If their goal is to sell miniatures but they're dependent upon royalties to earn a profit, that should be telling them something.

Couldn't agree more however I don't feel the current management really understand the markets. At the moment they seem to be flinging sh*t at the wall hoping it will stick. What's very evident is that the IP in the right hands can make a lot of money. Sadly the old management made one good decision (buy the rights for lotr) and basically got lucky, sense the buzz of the film died down they have been slowly killing the business (very slowly). GW isn't a clothes store, you can't dictate the trends, you have to actually find out what people like and stop deciding you know what your core customer is.

Davor wrote:
I don't know how to take it. He seems like he is a gamer and loves 40K but hates the management as most 40K/Fantasy gamers have the love/hate relationship but loves collecting the money.

If he is not a gamer at all, not sure how he really knows how the Management team really is then and how he can't trust them. He sure trusts them enough to have GW stock. He sure trusts them enough when they are giving him money. Something about his article is off.

He's not a gamer but one of the investors. I would read some of his other articles, they are very good reads mate.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Not in the slightest.

If some faceless entity kept handing you money, would you accept the money, or hand it back n case it needed it later?

As an investor it makes perfect sense, holding onto stock while it's making you a return and getting out before you incur a loss is pretty much the whole game. Accepting a dividend from GW while being acutely aware that the current trends mean it can't last forever and keeping a weather eye out for when it comes to time to bail out seems like perfectly sensible behaviour to me, and has nothing to do with trust.

Indeed. I've owned GW stock during three separate periods and dumped it twice so far when it benefited me to do so.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 itsonlyme wrote:

 agnosto wrote:


Good read and some very astute points made. If their goal is to sell miniatures but they're dependent upon royalties to earn a profit, that should be telling them something.

Couldn't agree more however I don't feel the current management really understand the markets. At the moment they seem to be flinging sh*t at the wall hoping it will stick. What's very evident is that the IP in the right hands can make a lot of money. Sadly the old management made one good decision (buy the rights for lotr) and basically got lucky, sense the buzz of the film died down they have been slowly killing the business (very slowly). GW isn't a clothes store, you can't dictate the trends, you have to actually find out what people like and stop deciding you know what your core customer is.

This is something that the writer discussed in his article the whole apparent mindset at GW HQ that either there is no competition or the completely dismissing any competition that they deign to recognize. I recall the insane ramblings of Kirby decrying the passing fad that is Pokemon...yeah, how's that working out?

I've said this several times in previous threads. GW, whether they admit to it or not, is facing identity crisis wrapped in internal conflict. They seem to not be able to move beyond themselves and examine who they are and who they are trying to attract as customers. You read statements from upper management about how 70%-ish of their customers never play their games but just collect and then other statements that they're targeting children with their products. Though children do collect, they generally don't collect things that they don't use. I myself had a hat collection when I was younger but guess what? I wore hats.

I think they'll continue to experience slowly declining profits until they either are unable to pull out of their death spiral or manage to turn things around by a shift in corporate philosophy. This is not them suddenly dying off but rather the death of a thousand cuts as they lose market share to more progressive competitors (whether they admit they exist or not).

http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop-agm%3A-relentless-profit-machine

Its also worth comparing to one of his older articles about GW.

Excuse the threadromancy - I can separate off if desired, but a new Trading Update just posted:

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=GAW&ArticleCode=jqjxxbjo&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Statement

06 October 2016

PRESS ANNOUNCEMENT



GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC



6 October 2016


TRADING UPDATE



Games Workshop Group PLC announces that sales and profits in the four months to 2 October 2016 are ahead of the Board's original expectations.

Over the four month period of the year to date we have seen sales growth in constant currency terms. Sales have further benefitted from the favourable impact of a weaker pound. These have resulted in growth in reported sales for the period.

However, the Board is aware that this is early in the 2017 financial year and that there are a number of key challenging trading periods ahead.

A nice (for me at least) 5% share price jump on the news. Hopefully shows that the changes in direction Kevin Rountree has been making are bearing fruit.

richred_uk wrote:
Excuse the threadromancy - I can separate off if desired, but a new Trading Update just posted:

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=GAW&ArticleCode=jqjxxbjo&ArticleHeadline=Trading_Statement

06 October 2016

PRESS ANNOUNCEMENT



GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC



6 October 2016


TRADING UPDATE



Games Workshop Group PLC announces that sales and profits in the four months to 2 October 2016 are ahead of the Board's original expectations.

Over the four month period of the year to date we have seen sales growth in constant currency terms. Sales have further benefitted from the favourable impact of a weaker pound. These have resulted in growth in reported sales for the period.

However, the Board is aware that this is early in the 2017 financial year and that there are a number of key challenging trading periods ahead.

A nice (for me at least) 5% share price jump on the news. Hopefully shows that the changes in direction Kevin Rountree has been making are bearing fruit.

KR should send a thank you note to everyone who voted Brexit 'Yes'. That currency windfall is going to be bigger than anyone expects.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Just Tony wrote:
Didn't the guys on Big Bang Theory play Settlers of Cataan on the show? Pay to have them play 40K, instant advertising. OR on a Nickelodeon teen show.

Or televise a tourney on ESPN2, like they did with M:TG back in the day. Rather than try to sell the same people redone versions of the same models and books, get it right and bring your product into the light. Make Space Hulk and Mordheim cheaper and stick them in standard stores with flyers inside advertising the main line games. Too easy.

They were playing 'Talisman' on one episode.

I wonder if that 4 months starts just before or just after the brexit vote.

They say sales are up even at constant currency which is good.

For a company that gets roughly two thirds (from memory) of its revenue overseas, the drop in the pound was going to be a huge boost. They're making roughly 16% more on each overseas sale than they were last year.