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Made in gb
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Herzlos wrote:
I'm not sure. I think without TW or WHQ, they'd be making a loss (or negligable profit). We'll never get figures for WHQ though, but I suspect the royalties will be a significant proportion of the profits.

My prediction will be ~£4.5m profit, of which ~£2m is licensing.


You might want to check the half year report. They made £6.2m up to November 2015, the big issue was they wouldn't make the £16m target. They're now saying they've done marginally better than expected so think your £4.5m might be a little low...
   
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Frostgrave

Yeah, you're right. My numbers don't make any sense.
   
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Ramsden Heath, Essex

Herzlos wrote:
I'm not sure. I think without TW or WHQ, they'd be making a loss (or negligable profit). We'll never get figures for WHQ though, but I suspect the royalties will be a significant proportion of the profits.

My prediction will be ~£4.5m profit, of which ~£2m is licensing.


GW are consistently returning £12M-£15M in profit per annum.

I would be surprised if the TW licence was more than £5M for a 5 year period. Historically GW have spread their licence payments over the period so I would suspect they have maintained this (its also good practice) so their stated slight increase might be circa £1M over their prediction on the basis of the licence bucket payment dropping in..hey could have had the money for some time in accounts.

To be clear GW are know where near a loss. I know few companies that would not want to be in the position of posting 10%+ year to year for a decade. GW are in good shape from that stand point.

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[MOD]
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Somewhere in southern England.

That's exactly right.

GW's problem is a long term one of falling sales. Obviously if that continued their irreducible cost base would eventually come to exceed their income, and they would start to post actual losses.

However if GW can stem and reverse the tide, they are looking good thanks to the efficiencies they have made in the past 8-10 years.

Even if they just hold steady where they are now, they are still a profitable company.

Everything is better with a huge wig. I thought that was common knowledge.

We should always remember that behind every social movement, every political ideal, and really anything worth doing at all, there is basically one thing that makes it function: work.

We're not very big on official rules. Rules lead to people looking for loopholes. What's here is about it.

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 Kilkrazy wrote:
That's exactly right.

GW's problem is a long term one of falling sales. Obviously if that continued their irreducible cost base would eventually come to exceed their income, and they would start to post actual losses.

However if GW can stem and reverse the tide, they are looking good thanks to the efficiencies they have made in the past 8-10 years.

Even if they just hold steady where they are now, they are still a profitable company.


Is holding steady going to be good enough, though?

Their rivals produce paint, models, and games, which match and often excel, GW's product, and often at a lower price.

In this internet age, their rivals can also match their exposure and publicity.

Interesting times ahead.

"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd 
   
Made in jp
[MOD]
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Somewhere in southern England.

Holding steady won't kill GW. They probably would like to expand to take more advantage of their reduced cost base and more efficient production.

Everything is better with a huge wig. I thought that was common knowledge.

We should always remember that behind every social movement, every political ideal, and really anything worth doing at all, there is basically one thing that makes it function: work.

We're not very big on official rules. Rules lead to people looking for loopholes. What's here is about it.

Forum posting guidelines, please learn them! You will be tested. 
   
Made in gb
Lieutenant Colonel




If GW plc are only holding steady in terms of profit, while still loosing market share and sales volumes.
It may not lead them into bankruptcy any time soon.But just lead them into being insignificant in terms of the gaming market.

Which could potentially be just as bad.

   
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Chicago

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Total War:Hammer is getting a lot of good press and seems to be genuinely a great game.
Given the pedigree of the Total War series that's not surprising.
It's all the more disappointing that GW canned WHFB the year before this potential big boost to recruitment came on stream.
I'll put that down to the tail end of the baleful Kirby era.


Personally I think a lot of people would look into WHFB after playing this game... then they would find out how much it costs to get into, then go right back to playing. Thats what sweet about AoS, around $70 per person and you can start playing smalelr games.

 
   
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Santa Clara County

Just imagine if they opened TW:WH up to Console/IOS users...

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 Snoopdeville3 wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
Total War:Hammer is getting a lot of good press and seems to be genuinely a great game.
Given the pedigree of the Total War series that's not surprising.
It's all the more disappointing that GW canned WHFB the year before this potential big boost to recruitment came on stream.
I'll put that down to the tail end of the baleful Kirby era.


Personally I think a lot of people would look into WHFB after playing this game... then they would find out how much it costs to get into, then go right back to playing. Thats what sweet about AoS, around $70 per person and you can start playing smalelr games.


Except it's not WFB, is it?
   
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It wouldn't surprise me if GW do do better, even discounting the whole shotgun licencing thing. Though it might be more to do with the next report. I was one of those predicting doom for GW unless they made major changes.

To be quite frank... Well, they are making changes, despite me being loathed to admit it.

The whole release a new "game" every few months seems to be working, for now at least. Plus the other various changes and improvements.
   
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 Uriels_Flame wrote:
Just imagine if they opened TW:WH up to Console/IOS users...
This is the first Total War game I've played, so maybe old school TW players don't feel the same, but I find the game has a terrible interface. If the interface sucks this bad on PC I'd hate to see what it's like on consoles.
   
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Boston

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
 Uriels_Flame wrote:
Just imagine if they opened TW:WH up to Console/IOS users...
This is the first Total War game I've played, so maybe old school TW players don't feel the same, but I find the game has a terrible interface. If the interface sucks this bad on PC I'd hate to see what it's like on consoles.


The UI is pretty much par for the course as far as Total War games. I remember it being cumbersome when I first began to play Total War games in... 2004-5ish? At this point I'm used to it but I could definitely see how it might feel clunky to a newcomer.

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Frostgrave

I think it's always been a bit clunky, but there's a lot to do. I can't see it translating well to a console or phone. I remember trying to play Red Alert on the PS1 and it was awful (I loved it on the PC), and it doesn't have the control depth of TW.


 Snoopdeville3 wrote:

Personally I think a lot of people would look into WHFB after playing this game... then they would find out how much it costs to get into, then go right back to playing. Thats what sweet about AoS, around $70 per person and you can start playing smalelr games.


But since it bears as much resemblance to TW:Warhammer as a potato, why would they want do to that? Bear in mind that whilst you can start playing AoS with a lower model count, some of those model boxes cost more than TW:Warhammer does.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/08 07:51:03


 
   
Made in gb
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 Kilkrazy wrote:
Total War:Hammer is getting a lot of good press and seems to be genuinely a great game.
Given the pedigree of the Total War series that's not surprising.
It's all the more disappointing that GW canned WHFB the year before this potential big boost to recruitment came on stream.
I'll put that down to the tail end of the baleful Kirby era.


Yup that's why I keep saying imagine if Kevin was in charge before hand? I feel he would of done the necessary changes to improve the product. Well what's done is done.
   
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Boston, MA

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
 Uriels_Flame wrote:
Just imagine if they opened TW:WH up to Console/IOS users...
This is the first Total War game I've played, so maybe old school TW players don't feel the same, but I find the game has a terrible interface. If the interface sucks this bad on PC I'd hate to see what it's like on consoles.

It would be unplayable on consoles altogether. It's a capital P capital C "PC" game. Warhammer: Battle March was like a poor man's Total War back on the 360, and that game wasn't so hot itself.

I'd expect sales of Total War to keep going on into the new financial year and feeding them more money, I'm adoring the game and the word of mouth is altogether really positive.

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 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
That's exactly right.

GW's problem is a long term one of falling sales. Obviously if that continued their irreducible cost base would eventually come to exceed their income, and they would start to post actual losses.

However if GW can stem and reverse the tide, they are looking good thanks to the efficiencies they have made in the past 8-10 years.

Even if they just hold steady where they are now, they are still a profitable company.


Is holding steady going to be good enough, though?

Their rivals produce paint, models, and games, which match and often excel, GW's product, and often at a lower price.

In this internet age, their rivals can also match their exposure and publicity.

Interesting times ahead.


Well depends how long they have and do they dare to keep prices fixed for a a long time After all if they would decide to stop increasing prices eventually their prices would become cheap again.

But do they have time/interest in not hiking prices up...

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 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:
That's exactly right.

GW's problem is a long term one of falling sales. Obviously if that continued their irreducible cost base would eventually come to exceed their income, and they would start to post actual losses.

However if GW can stem and reverse the tide, they are looking good thanks to the efficiencies they have made in the past 8-10 years.

Even if they just hold steady where they are now, they are still a profitable company.


Is holding steady going to be good enough, though?


No, it would be very risky. LOTR and WHFB both dropped from strong bringers of revenue to almost nothing in about 5 years or even less. Same could just as well happen to 40k and in company's present situation, would spell doom for them.
This is why they are attempting to diversify their catalogue - release board games, reset WHFB, bringing back Specialist Games.

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 Kilkrazy wrote:
 KiloFiX wrote:
Yeah, it was always profitable, every year.

It's just that profit was getting smaller year over year.


They haven't always been profitable and profits have been increasing for a few years as sales declined. This is because the company has got more efficient.

Their Cost of Goods (cost of making things to sell) has gone down from about 25% of retail price to about 20%. This creates a situation in which you can sell less stuff and make more profit.

I mention these points because there is no use discussing the company's financial position if we are not clear about their financial history.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Toofast wrote:
What will be interesting is their profit and revenue compared to last year without the licensing included. Royalties are supposed to be the icing on the cake, not the only reason you don't slowly starve to death. If they aren't growing their miniature and rulebook sales, it's still a downward spiral. What happens next year when you don't have a huge game like that to keep the profits up? And the year after? This is slightly optimistic news, especially compared to the dismal report right after 8th WHFB and 6th 40k dropped.


They also will have been helped by the weakening of the GBP in foreign exchange markets.

I agree it's hard to see how they can licence the IP without having core games that make it popular. Perhaps GW can transition to a purely digital company, designing 3D models and writing scenarios for computer games. Where would that leave the rest of the company, though?


It's the Marvel approach. I haven't bought a Marvel Comic Book in years, but come Birthday or Christmas I always seem to get given some licensed Marvel pants, t-shirt, wallet, socks etc

With GW they probably hope the video games keep the franchises going while miniature sales are decreasing. In much the same way the films kept Marvel going whilst comic book sales drop off.
It wouldn't surprise me if GW took videogame production in house at some point
   
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Bartali wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if GW took videogame production in house at some point
It would surprise me because video game development is a cutthroat industry, extremely risky (large amounts of money required up front hoping for a pay off down the road) and a video game design studio is made up of a large number of people relative to a table top wargame design studio.
   
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Japan

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
Bartali wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if GW took videogame production in house at some point
It would surprise me because video game development is a cutthroat industry, extremely risky (large amounts of money required up front hoping for a pay off down the road) and a video game design studio is made up of a large number of people relative to a table top wargame design studio.


I agree, licensing is the safest route, would like to see them expand in other area's though.

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It seems to be that they are addressing their model price issue. The start collecting and renegade knight box sets and kits like the terminator command box are a way to get a reduced price on models without GW actually lowering the prices of models. The fear is probably that if they lower prices, they 'devalue' the models and make them less desirable.

So, whilst they won't lower the cost of a terminator box, they realise they're expensive and want to offer us some terminators in a special deal.

It seems like good business practice to me. It makes me want to buy more models, that's for sure!

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 corpuschain wrote:


It seems like good business practice to me. It makes me want to buy more models, that's for sure!


That seems to be the beauty of the Start Collecting boxes.

"I'd really like a Dunecrawler. £40!!!! Oh wait for £50 I get the Dunecrawler AND troops AND a character. Here GW (or favourite FLGS/ Online retailer), have more money than I was originally going to spend".

I don't know how much profit they make with that extra £10 offset against the extra models you get but it must make sense to someone.

   
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London

 corpuschain wrote:
It seems to be that they are addressing their model price issue. The start collecting and renegade knight box sets and kits like the terminator command box are a way to get a reduced price on models without GW actually lowering the prices of models. The fear is probably that if they lower prices, they 'devalue' the models and make them less desirable.

So, whilst they won't lower the cost of a terminator box, they realise they're expensive and want to offer us some terminators in a special deal.

It seems like good business practice to me. It makes me want to buy more models, that's for sure!


What if I only want terminators and think they are too expensive?
   
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Really great to hear that GW is doing well.

Like what's been said, a little sad to hear that TW warhammer has been turning a great profit despite the old world's destruction but not surprised that it wasn't predicted by GW back in 2013 when the franchise seemed through.

Lord knows that the early reception by the TW fanbase would've made anyone think it was a failure in the making. (Seriously, we're talking almost-death threats sent to CA for not working on medieval 3. Those fans are savage...)

I think videogame licenses and board games are the best bets for GW. The 3D printer press madness of the future can ruin model sales without good IP but board games with good model deals and awesome rules are far harder to rip-off than singular models and videogames are on a whole other level of protection.

Here's hoping GW can roll with the punches and win out in the end.
   
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Frostgrave

 corpuschain wrote:
It seems to be that they are addressing their model price issue. The start collecting and renegade knight box sets and kits like the terminator command box are a way to get a reduced price on models without GW actually lowering the prices of models.


Only if the buyer (1) has the money to buy the bundle and either (a) wants most of the stuff in a box or (b) has contacts to swap out the rest.

Take the Knights box; great deal if you want 2 Knights, as the 2nd one was virtually free, but it was still the fat end of £100, and I only actually want 1.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Baron Klatz wrote:
The 3D printer press madness of the future can ruin model sales without good IP but board games with good model deals and awesome rules are far harder to rip-off than singular models and videogames are on a whole other level of protection.


3D printed models will likely never be able to compete with mass produced PVC. Even at perfect resolution, it'd take so long to make it wouldn't be worth it. Just like home printers never killed the printing industry.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/10 08:30:57


 
   
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 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:
 corpuschain wrote:
It seems to be that they are addressing their model price issue. The start collecting and renegade knight box sets and kits like the terminator command box are a way to get a reduced price on models without GW actually lowering the prices of models. The fear is probably that if they lower prices, they 'devalue' the models and make them less desirable.

So, whilst they won't lower the cost of a terminator box, they realise they're expensive and want to offer us some terminators in a special deal.

It seems like good business practice to me. It makes me want to buy more models, that's for sure!


What if I only want terminators and think they are too expensive?


Probably buy the combined box set and sell off everything but the terminators at a profit...

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Value sets are great and all, but the way to address the high prices complaint isn't to say "spend even MORE money". That's a marketing move that distracts from the issue instead of trying to actually do anything about it.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/06/11 03:38:09


   
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Simply put, companies do not go out of their way and make announcements like that if their results are going to disappoint. It's a very big and positive statement to actually come out and say something like this rather than just wait and post up their year end results, as they normally do, with the "trading is in line with expectations" comment they've thrown out to the investment community for the last several years. They must be very happy with the results they're tabulating.
   
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Bartali wrote:

It wouldn't surprise me if GW took videogame production in house at some point


GW used to publish computer games, including the original Chaos, so its possible that they may go this route again with small GW related games although probably not.

Baron Klatz wrote:
but not surprised that it wasn't predicted by GW back in 2013 when the franchise seemed through.


I am . The TW series are definitely in the AAA realm and a Warhammer TW game has been much sought after for years, it was obvious that this would have been GW's biggest licensing opportunity by far, even more so than Dawn of War.

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