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Dice are not actually random, they obey the laws of physics and two perfectly identical dice-casts will always result in two perfectly-identical results. They are simply beyond the human mind's ability to predict.

Yes, and if we were super computers this would be an issue. However, for all intents and purposes, to the average human a die roll is random enough.

(Of course, that's not taking into account various methods of rolling which your dad could be doing, or defects in the dice that cause one side to pop up more often.)

I believe in Chaos Theory.

As in my dice rolls will be better the happier my patron god is at the time.

Time to go sneeze in more people's coffees!

 Pouncey wrote:
Dice are not actually random, they obey the laws of physics and two perfectly identical dice-casts will always result in two perfectly-identical results. They are simply beyond the human mind's ability to predict. Usually.

This is true, but it's not a very relevant fact. "Two identical dice casts" is something that is beyond our ability to do (at least short of designing a carefully controlled die rolling machine), so for all practical purposes a die roll is completely random. The variation in forces applied to a die in normal use is sufficient to make any attempt at prediction impossible.

There are occasionally people like my dad who have been known to call their dice rolls at random moments and have never been wrong when they do so, regardless of how favorable or unfavorable the result was.

Confirmation bias, nothing more. If your dad did have any talent for calling his dice rolls, beyond guessing and remembering only the interesting successes, he would be obscenely wealthy because he went to every casino in the country and cleaned them out.

 Wolfblade wrote:
Yes, and if we were super computers this would be an issue. However, for all intents and purposes, to the average human a die roll is random enough.

There's a billionaire personally funding a long-term research project whose eventual goal is to provide humans with the option to replace our fleshy meatsack bodies with robot bodies for the equivalent cost of a new car. He's hoping to have those bodies being mass-produced for everyone who wants one in about 60 years.

So one day, our brains might just be super computers instead of human brains.

For now, yes, I agree, they function properly as random number generators, even though they're not actually random.

(Of course, that's not taking into account various methods of rolling which your dad could be doing, or defects in the dice that cause one side to pop up more often.)

He described it as simply knowing what the result would be when he picked up the dice. No special rolling technique needed. I had a similar, but less-specific feeling back in a game in 3e. My Rhino took 4 Penetrating Hits, and I picked up the dice and instantly just KNEW that the Rhino would survive. So I rolled the dice like I always do. And it survived.


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 Peregrine wrote:
Confirmation bias, nothing more. If your dad did have any talent for calling his dice rolls, beyond guessing and remembering only the interesting successes, he would be obscenely wealthy because he went to every casino in the country and cleaned them out.

It happened at random and wasn't limited to rolls that were good for him. If he'd gone to a casino and played for hours, he might've had one instance where he was able to call one of his rolls, or none at all. It wasn't something he could turn on or off at will.

if he's not able to do it at will, how can you be sure it's anything other than chance?

Anyway, dice are for all intents and purposes random.

 Pouncey wrote:
He's hoping to have those bodies being mass-produced for everyone who wants one in about 60 years.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA NO.

Sorry, but this is just science fiction. It may happen someday in the distant future, but any claim of "within 60 years" is laughably optimistic.

He described it as simply knowing what the result would be when he picked up the dice. No special rolling technique needed. I had a similar, but less-specific feeling back in a game in 3e. My Rhino took 4 Penetrating Hits, and I picked up the dice and instantly just KNEW that the Rhino would survive. So I rolled the dice like I always do. And it survived.

Like I said, confirmation bias. You remember the time you "know" your Rhino is going to survive and roll well because it's an awesome experience, you forget all the times where you don't roll as well and the Rhino you "know" is going to survive explodes. Same thing with your dad. If he truly has the ability to pick up dice and know the result then he should be a billionaire. If he hasn't been taking his "talent" to every casino in the country and winning huge amounts of money it's a pretty clear concession that the "talent" does not exist.


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 Pouncey wrote:
It happened at random and wasn't limited to rolls that were good for him. If he'd gone to a casino and played for hours, he might've had one instance where he was able to call one of his rolls, or none at all. It wasn't something he could turn on or off at will.

Yep, confirmation bias. It happens "randomly" because his guesses are random and he only remembers the ones that are correct.

Confirmation bias. You're taking all the times he was right and ignoring the many times he wasn't.

 Griddlelol wrote:
if he's not able to do it at will, how can you be sure it's anything other than chance?

Anyway, dice are for all intents and purposes random.

Because he never picked up the dice, got that feeling, called his roll and then was wrong.

It used to freak people out at the strategy club at his college.

Also as he got older it eventually stopped happening.

That's not a reason. A story about how in the old days he could do magic is not evidence of magic.

I'll drop it now.

 Pouncey wrote:

It happened at random and wasn't limited to rolls that were good for him. If he'd gone to a casino and played for hours, he might've had one instance where he was able to call one of his rolls, or none at all. It wasn't something he could turn on or off at will.

'It happened at random...'

'Was able to call one of his rolls, or none at all.'

You do understand how probability works, right? Because I can do the exact same thing as your dad. Roll a die and I will guess the resulting number with perfect accuracy... 1 time out of 6.

*edit*

 Pouncey wrote:


It used to freak people out at the strategy club at his college.

Also as he got older it eventually stopped happening.

So, confirmation bias, or 'it made for a good story, so it really used to happen, but can't do it anymore, so just take me at my word. Oh well.'

 Peregrine wrote:
Like I said, confirmation bias. You remember the time you "know" your Rhino is going to survive and roll well because it's an awesome experience, you forget all the times where you don't roll as well and the Rhino you "know" is going to survive explodes. Same thing with your dad. If he truly has the ability to pick up dice and know the result then he should be a billionaire. If he hasn't been taking his "talent" to every casino in the country and winning huge amounts of money it's a pretty clear concession that the "talent" does not exist.

Incorrect. It only happened the one time to me. On no other occasion have I picked up dice and had that same certain feeling of the outcome.

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 Pouncey wrote:
It happened at random and wasn't limited to rolls that were good for him. If he'd gone to a casino and played for hours, he might've had one instance where he was able to call one of his rolls, or none at all. It wasn't something he could turn on or off at will.

Yep, confirmation bias. It happens "randomly" because his guesses are random and he only remembers the ones that are correct.

Look, I'm going off the story he told me of events that happened before I was born, and frankly, you weren't there either and you're just assuming things you can't possibly know.

 Pouncey wrote:

He described it as simply knowing what the result would be when he picked up the dice. No special rolling technique needed. I had a similar, but less-specific feeling back in a game in 3e. My Rhino took 4 Penetrating Hits, and I picked up the dice and instantly just KNEW that the Rhino would survive. So I rolled the dice like I always do. And it survived.

Anyone who knows how to roll a die to get certain results will claim that, rather than claim they can cheat. Anecdotal experience is not evidence. Everyone remembers the awesome stuff like calling a 6, not the mundane stuff, like calling a 6 and getting a 2.

 Pouncey wrote:

Look, I'm going off the story he told me of events that happened before I was born, and frankly, you weren't there either and you're just assuming things you can't possibly know.

Err, yeah, see my edit to my above post. It 'worked' because it makes for a good story now.

 Pouncey wrote:
Because he never picked up the dice, got that feeling, called his roll and then was wrong.

It used to freak people out at the strategy club at his college.

Also as he got older it eventually stopped happening.

Alternatively, nobody remembered that time he guessed wrong, and he only did it a couple of times (making it lucky, but not unbelievably lucky). And the casino example still works just as well even if he personally lost the "talent" for guessing dice. If it is possible to predict dice then casinos would not be a profitable business. Someone with the magical ability to predict dice would come in and bankrupt the casino, and repeat the process over and over again. The obvious conclusion is that it isn't possible, and any stories of predicting dice are either confirmation bias or poor memory.


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 Pouncey wrote:
Incorrect. It only happened the one time to me. On no other occasion have I picked up dice and had that same certain feeling of the outcome.

At least that you remember. I'd bet that you've had feelings like that plenty of other times, you just immediately forget the feeling because you see your bad dice results before you really have time to think about it or commit it to memory. The one time you rolled amazingly well was just the one time that it was memorable enough to stick with you.

Look, I'm going off the story he told me of events that happened before I was born, and frankly, you weren't there either and you're just assuming things you can't possibly know.

I don't need to know the details because casinos exist as a profitable business. Something about the story must be wrong, because the alternative is simply not plausible.

I'm not sure what the great revelation here is supposed to be. Anyone who's spent any time rolling dice is aware of how they work, and that a poorly balanced die has predictable results - loaded dice are nothing new. Good dice are going to be as close to balanced as possible, and a good toss that gets them rotating on several axis will account for most minor deficiencies.

 Peregrine wrote:

 Pouncey wrote:
Because he never picked up the dice, got that feeling, called his roll and then was wrong.

It used to freak people out at the strategy club at his college.

Also as he got older it eventually stopped happening.

Alternatively, nobody remembered that time he guessed wrong, and he only did it a couple of times (making it lucky, but not unbelievably lucky). And the casino example still works just as well even if he personally lost the "talent" for guessing dice. If it is possible to predict dice then casinos would not be a profitable business. Someone with the magical ability to predict dice would come in and bankrupt the casino, and repeat the process over and over again. The obvious conclusion is that it isn't possible, and any stories of predicting dice are either confirmation bias or poor memory.

Poor memory's a possibility. He did say he had some memories he knew for a fact were things that never happened, and he apparently remembered reading a science article in the 1990s about a successful orbital plasma weapon test that he was never able to find any trace of again.

And no, the casino thing's not a good example. If you can only predict one in a thousand rolls (random number, he never actually told me how often he called his rolls and I can't ask him anymore) and you have no idea whether this will be the one you can predict until the dice are in your hand and it's time to roll, how does that let you bankrupt a casino?


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 Peregrine wrote:

 Pouncey wrote:
Because he never picked up the dice, got that feeling, called his roll and then was wrong.

It used to freak people out at the strategy club at his college.

Also as he got older it eventually stopped happening.

Alternatively, nobody remembered that time he guessed wrong, and he only did it a couple of times (making it lucky, but not unbelievably lucky). And the casino example still works just as well even if he personally lost the "talent" for guessing dice. If it is possible to predict dice then casinos would not be a profitable business. Someone with the magical ability to predict dice would come in and bankrupt the casino, and repeat the process over and over again. The obvious conclusion is that it isn't possible, and any stories of predicting dice are either confirmation bias or poor memory.


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 Pouncey wrote:
Incorrect. It only happened the one time to me. On no other occasion have I picked up dice and had that same certain feeling of the outcome.

At least that you remember. I'd bet that you've had feelings like that plenty of other times, you just immediately forget the feeling because you see your bad dice results before you really have time to think about it or commit it to memory. The one time you rolled amazingly well was just the one time that it was memorable enough to stick with you.

Look, I'm going off the story he told me of events that happened before I was born, and frankly, you weren't there either and you're just assuming things you can't possibly know.

I don't need to know the details because casinos exist as a profitable business. Something about the story must be wrong, because the alternative is simply not plausible.

Maybe we should just drop this argument. It's only going to consist of you calling me a liar and/or cheater while I assert things that are completely impossible to prove one way or the other.

I'll give a counter example here: some people I play X-Wing with will swear that I have amazing dice. But you know what? I really don't. They just forget all the times when I roll average or worse because it just isn't as interesting as the time I annihilate their ship with perfect dice. And they overlook the fact that I usually have lots of effects that modify my dice results, making the average of my modified rolls way higher than the average of unmodified dice. So most of my "exceptional" luck comes down to the fact that I play strong lists and I don't often make piloting mistakes that cost me my ability to modify my dice.


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 Pouncey wrote:
And no, the casino thing's not a good example. If you can only predict one in a thousand rolls (random number, he never actually told me how often he called his rolls and I can't ask him anymore) and you have no idea whether this will be the one you can predict until the dice are in your hand and it's time to roll, how does that let you bankrupt a casino?

Because the difference from "one in a thousand and don't know until you touch the dice" to "one in ten and you know it a minute in advance" is much smaller than the difference from "not possible" to "one in a thousand". Even if you somehow aren't creative enough to find a way to win money with your dad's claimed version of the "talent" it's incredibly likely that, if predicting dice is possible at all, someone else is better at it and can win all the money. Essentially you're forced to claim that the whole thing is literally magic, and must obey these particular arbitrary rules about how the magic works.

Maybe we should just drop this argument. It's only going to consist of you calling me a liar and/or cheater while I assert things that are completely impossible to prove one way or the other.

You're free to stop posting about it at any time, though I'd question what exactly you thought would happen when you made this thread. And you're still clearly wrong about this, even if you don't want to defend it anymore.

 Peregrine wrote:
I'll give a counter example here: some people I play X-Wing with will swear that I have amazing dice. But you know what? I really don't. They just forget all the times when I roll average or worse because it just isn't as interesting as the time I annihilate their ship with perfect dice. And they overlook the fact that I usually have lots of effects that modify my dice results, making the average of my modified rolls way higher than the average of unmodified dice. So most of my "exceptional" luck comes down to the fact that I play strong lists and I don't often make piloting mistakes that cost me my ability to modify my dice.

I remember a guy on the Dakka forums a number of years ago who claimed to have really poor dice rolls. Every opponent he had, even ones from out of town who just stopped in for a pick-up game, would inevitably comment on how poorly he was rolling. If other people used his dice, they'd roll normally. If he used other people's dice, he'd roll just as poorly as he had with his own dice. He'd roll low for things he needed high rolls, but high when he needed to roll low. He also said he wasn't using any particular rolling technique to try to roll as badly as he was.

He compensated for it by playing infantry horde IG so that at least some attacks would go through by sheer weight of dice.

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove with that story, except yes, confirmation bias is a big thing in the gaming community. Maybe you should start a thread about dice superstitions. Those are always interesting.

 Pouncey wrote:
If you can only predict one in a thousand rolls

Again, do you understand how probability works? Because the one time I said, 'watch me fail all my saves on my terminarots,' and subsequently had all four terminators die was not me showing amazing predictive skills, but being lucky in guessing I was about to hit the 1 in 1,296 chance of rolling

And it makes for a funny story.

 Peregrine wrote:
You're free to stop posting about it at any time, though I'd question what exactly you thought would happen when you made this thread. And you're still clearly wrong about this, even if you don't want to defend it anymore.

Sounds good.

When I set out to make this thread, the only thing I wanted to put in it was the part about dice not actually being random, just too unpredictable for the human brain, which seemed really profound to me since I've been up for two days straight. The story my dad told me was added as a silly afterthought that, for some reason I cannot currently comprehend, I thought no one would take seriously and turn into a big argument and would just ignore and think of me as crazy in secret.

I thought the reaction would be maybe a couple of, "Hey, that's pretty cool, I never thought of dice that way before," to the part about dice obeying physics and thus not actually being random, followed by the thread sinking into the depths of the non-front pages, while I have a small smile at having taught people a random useless fact.

The thread title is Dolan's intro line from the Super Planet Dolan videos on YouTube which answers random questions about how things work in real life posed by viewers with both a silly nonsensical humorous bit, followed by the actual scientific explanation.

Of course the dice follow physics precisely... everything in our observable universe does. Dice are not magical. The human brain is not the pinnacle of possible computation or prediction skill.

It is somewhat interesting to think about, I guess.

 Pouncey wrote:

When I set out to make this thread, the only thing I wanted to put in it was the part about dice not actually being random, just too unpredictable for the human brain

Thats the definition of randomness though, that its unpredictable.

AncientSkarbrand wrote:
Of course the dice follow physics precisely... everything in our observable universe does. Dice are not magical. The human brain is not the pinnacle of possible computation or prediction skill.

I'm not sure why you think I said/believe otherwise about any of that.

It is somewhat interesting to think about, I guess.

There we go.

Thread success.

:: hugs ::

The used to be a TV show on TLC called Breaking Vegas. It dealt with people that figured out legal, and illegal, ways to give themselves a statistical advantage over casinos. For example, roulette wheels all have a wobble in them from manufacturing errors. Some are worse than others. If you track a wheel long enough you can figure out that the ball will land within a certain arch on the wheel more often, so bet on those numbers.

One episode dealt with a guy that learned how to win at craps. There is no legal way a casino may enforce the technique you use to roll the dice. So, this guy figured out a way to roll the dice using an under-hand, wrist swinging movement. If you could get the technique right (and he did) it meant the dice would roll forwards and backwards, but never side to side. So, if you held the two dice together in such a manner so that the four sides likely to roll up would unlikely roll a "7" you would almost NEVER crap out. Alternatively, the ability to roll either a 6 or an 8 increased dramatically. The guy ended up having something like an 8% advantage over the house and won so often he was banned from all the casinos.

*Ian Malcolm Laugh*

Something else I remember was a dice manufacturer a number of years back that was selling "true cube" dice. Apparently his dice where significantly more cube-like than most dice.

Due to the errors of manufacturing most dice are not cubes. Some brands are significantly worse than others. This mostly comes from the old molds used to cast the plastic and the polishing process that makes the dice shiny. Dice will often be a few percent taller than they are wide, making some numbers more likely to pop up. In addition, some sides are not quite square, and some dice are "twisted" (the corners of the "1" side are not square with the corners of the "6" side for example).

Also, the smaller your dice, the more significant these manufacturing errors will be. Accidentally polishing of 1/100 of an inch from a giant 4-inch wide dice is almost meaningless, while polishing the same amount off a 1/4 inch wide dice is dramatic.

This thread's making me feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

 Pouncey wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:
You're free to stop posting about it at any time, though I'd question what exactly you thought would happen when you made this thread. And you're still clearly wrong about this, even if you don't want to defend it anymore.

Sounds good.

When I set out to make this thread, the only thing I wanted to put in it was the part about dice not actually being random, just too unpredictable for the human brain, which seemed really profound to me since I've been up for two days straight. The story my dad told me was added as a silly afterthought that, for some reason I cannot currently comprehend, I thought no one would take seriously and turn into a big argument and would just ignore and think of me as crazy in secret.

I thought the reaction would be maybe a couple of, "Hey, that's pretty cool, I never thought of dice that way before," to the part about dice obeying physics and thus not actually being random, followed by the thread sinking into the depths of the non-front pages, while I have a small smile at having taught people a random useless fact.

The thread title is Dolan's intro line from the Super Planet Dolan videos on YouTube which answers random questions about how things work in real life posed by viewers with both a silly nonsensical humorous bit, followed by the actual scientific explanation.

So you state obvious fact and story that ain't true and you are surprised which one gets more attention?

This post totally lived up to its boasts. It totally blew my mind!!!