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 jhe90 wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4308576/Tory-rebels-concede-defeat-EU-Bill.html

Looks like Gov has won right to launch Brexit
Queen just has to sign on the dotted line and we can press the button.

Well, here we go.

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
Personally I am absolutely fine with Scottish independence, it seems perfectly reasonable to me considering the curent climate. Besides, everyone knew explicitly that this would likely happen, so I'm not sure I understand the objections myself.

I'd also ask those English and Welsh members on here who object to this, to ask themselves exactly why they object. What impact is potential Scottish independence going to have on you, personally.
I'd also like to point out that I am not asking you to post your answer, it's just a question you might like to ask yourself before arguing against it.

I don't object to them having a second referendum, I'm objecting to them sabotaging Brexit by trying to hold it before Brexit is concluded.

In what way do you think this will sabotage Brexit?

The fact that we'd be cutting the UK in half, thereby shrinking its economy, territory and international prestige and clout at a time when we're conducting difficult and extremely cut throat negotiations over the UK's withdrawal from the EU?

Without Scotland, the UK is diminished and vice versa. How can it not impact upon Brexit negotiations?

Scotland is not half the UK, negotiations maybe stretched, but again, this is something we knew may happen, and we should have prepared for it.

I would also ask you what you would say if the words you speak came from a German poster talking about Brexit.

I don't care what Germans think about Brexit. Germans are not my countrymen and never will be.

The Scots are.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
Personally I am absolutely fine with Scottish independence, it seems perfectly reasonable to me considering the curent climate. Besides, everyone knew explicitly that this would likely happen, so I'm not sure I understand the objections myself.

I'd also ask those English and Welsh members on here who object to this, to ask themselves exactly why they object. What impact is potential Scottish independence going to have on you, personally.
I'd also like to point out that I am not asking you to post your answer, it's just a question you might like to ask yourself before arguing against it.

I don't object to them having a second referendum, I'm objecting to them sabotaging Brexit by trying to hold it before Brexit is concluded.

In what way do you think this will sabotage Brexit?

The fact that we'd be cutting the UK in half, thereby shrinking its economy, territory and international prestige and clout at a time when we're conducting difficult and extremely cut throat negotiations over the UK's withdrawal from the EU?

Without Scotland, the UK is diminished and vice versa. How can it not impact upon Brexit negotiations?

Scotland is not half the UK, negotiations maybe stretched, but again, this is something we knew may happen, and we should have prepared for it.

I would also ask you what you would say if the words you speak came from a German poster talking about Brexit.

I don't care what Germans think about Brexit. Germans are not my countrymen and never will be.

The Scots are.

Evidently, they don't care what you think about them either.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
Personally I am absolutely fine with Scottish independence, it seems perfectly reasonable to me considering the curent climate. Besides, everyone knew explicitly that this would likely happen, so I'm not sure I understand the objections myself.

I'd also ask those English and Welsh members on here who object to this, to ask themselves exactly why they object. What impact is potential Scottish independence going to have on you, personally.
I'd also like to point out that I am not asking you to post your answer, it's just a question you might like to ask yourself before arguing against it.

I don't object to them having a second referendum, I'm objecting to them sabotaging Brexit by trying to hold it before Brexit is concluded.

In what way do you think this will sabotage Brexit?

The fact that we'd be cutting the UK in half, thereby shrinking its economy, territory and international prestige and clout at a time when we're conducting difficult and extremely cut throat negotiations over the UK's withdrawal from the EU?

Without Scotland, the UK is diminished and vice versa. How can it not impact upon Brexit negotiations?

Scotland is not half the UK, negotiations maybe stretched, but again, this is something we knew may happen, and we should have prepared for it.

I would also ask you what you would say if the words you speak came from a German poster talking about Brexit.

I don't care what Germans think about Brexit. Germans are not my countrymen and never will be.

The Scots are.

Are you Scottish?

Are you Scottish?

British.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

Are you Scottish?

British.

Nice try
However, you claim not to care about what a German who says the things you have said, but the point wasn't whether you care or not, but to attempt to make you view your opinions through the lens of someone who opposes you, ie the Scottish Nationalists.

So, I'm asking again, how would you react if a German insisted that we should not have held the EU referendum because it would harm the EU's ability to sort out its difficulties?

That is in essence what you are suggesting, and I don't think it's unreasonable for you to consider what you are saying, and what impact that's likely to have. I would suggest that many Scots could view your stance quite unfavourably?

Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

Northern Ireland too. Especially with the land boarder.

I don't want to join the republic though. Don't tell my granddad that.

And I imagine, just like the last one, it'll be another vote I'm not allower to take part in.

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

If the SNP keep getting elected, almost certainly they will. The Union will constantly have to justify itself as long as there is a desire for Scottish independence. Besides, as I remember, the SNP started the first referendum with only about 27% support, so they're quite well ahead of the game if they're 50/50.

As to the timing, well I'm not convinced it's the right time myself, but I imagine that the SNP are going to try and get the most advantageous time to call it, rather than wait for a time convenient for people who won't get a vote.

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

Campaigning hasn't started yet, it is interesting though that polling consistently puts support for independence at a higher level than at Indyref1

Polls don't provide a mandate, the SNPs manifesto does.

Well the English went and created Brexit, without that it would have been a once in a generation vote.

 r_squared wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

If the SNP keep getting elected, almost certainly they will. The Union will constantly have to justify itself as long as there is a desire for Scottish independence. Besides, as I remember, the SNP started the first referendum with only about 27% support, so they're quite well ahead of the game if they're 50/50.

As to the timing, well I'm not convinced it's the right time myself, but I imagine that the SNP are going to try and get the most advantageous time to call it, rather than wait for a time convenient for people who won't get a vote.

When Bredit talks begin and things start rolling in that 2 year period they do risk making it look like q side show.
Plus even if thru got a yes. Even if they got a clear majority.

Scotland could not truely leave until after, and after they worked out how to delink the two countries.
Real independence could be 2020 or further.

 jhe90 wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

If the SNP keep getting elected, almost certainly they will. The Union will constantly have to justify itself as long as there is a desire for Scottish independence. Besides, as I remember, the SNP started the first referendum with only about 27% support, so they're quite well ahead of the game if they're 50/50.

As to the timing, well I'm not convinced it's the right time myself, but I imagine that the SNP are going to try and get the most advantageous time to call it, rather than wait for a time convenient for people who won't get a vote.

When Bredit talks begin and things start rolling in that 2 year period they do risk making it look like q side show.
Plus even if thru got a yes. Even if they got a clear majority.

Scotland could not truely leave until after, and after they worked out how to delink the two countries.
Real independence could be 2020 or further.

I'm guessing you're posting from a phone?

The thing to remember is the stated goal of the SNP, independence from the UK. The actual timing of independence is probably not that big a deal as long as independence is achieved, so real independence at 2020 may be perfectly acceptable, I'm not a member of the SNP so I can't say myself.
If they feel that the next year or so is the best time to go for it, then I imagine that that's what they'll do.

Besides it's not like Westminster haven't had the opportunity to not only address this issue, but to defuse it, but the Govt doesn't seem to be prepared to do anything on anyone else's terms in the belief that makes them look like strong negotiators.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Northern Ireland too. Especially with the land boarder.

I don't want to join the republic though. Don't tell my granddad that.

I'm convinced that Brexit will lead inexorably towards a united Ireland. But it's too late to go into why right now.

 r_squared wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:
Thr Scotland issue is a big one.

However according to most polls it seems its still only hovering 50-50 ish with few % aside.

Its not thr vest mandate for launching a new Scotland, and by polls we have seen not too much chmage from the last one.

If this is true the idea of Indy ref 2 is not looking sturgens best move.
Lastly they said it was once in a generation vote.

Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

If the SNP keep getting elected, almost certainly they will. The Union will constantly have to justify itself as long as there is a desire for Scottish independence. Besides, as I remember, the SNP started the first referendum with only about 27% support, so they're quite well ahead of the game if they're 50/50.

As to the timing, well I'm not convinced it's the right time myself, but I imagine that the SNP are going to try and get the most advantageous time to call it, rather than wait for a time convenient for people who won't get a vote.

When Bredit talks begin and things start rolling in that 2 year period they do risk making it look like q side show.
Plus even if thru got a yes. Even if they got a clear majority.

Scotland could not truely leave until after, and after they worked out how to delink the two countries.
Real independence could be 2020 or further.

I'm guessing you're posting from a phone?

The thing to remember is the stated goal of the SNP, independence from the UK. The actual timing of independence is probably not that big a deal as long as independence is achieved, so real independence at 2020 may be perfectly acceptable, I'm not a member of the SNP so I can't say myself.
If they feel that the next year or so is the best time to go for it, then I imagine that that's what they'll do.

Besides it's not like Westminster haven't had the opportunity to not only address this issue, but to defuse it, but the Govt doesn't seem to be prepared to do anything on anyone else's terms in the belief that makes them look like strong negotiators.

Yes I am. With not the biggest screen.
True I can see why a go at vote mid Brexit is possible, Westminster us distracted and all.
However I also see if the cannot win it now with Brexit, with the fact Scotland went mostly EU, and a Tory government.

If that fails, then they need some serious thinking time.

 jhe90 wrote:
...True I can see why a go at vote mid Brexit is possible, Westminster us distracted and all.
However I also see if the cannot win it now with Brexit, with the fact Scotland went mostly EU, and a Tory government.

If that fails, then they need some serious thinking time.

I'm inclined to agree, a vote during Brexit would pretty much seal the deal, not because nationalism would die, but because if they can't convince the Scottish to leave under these circumstances, they would struggle to ever convince them.
I don't think that'd stop them from trying though until they eventually get what they want, or the SNP somehow becomes an irrelevance, and Labour, Lib Dems, and the Tories make huge gains.
Needless to say, like the eurosceptics, they aren't going away any time soon.

 r_squared wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:
...True I can see why a go at vote mid Brexit is possible, Westminster us distracted and all.
However I also see if the cannot win it now with Brexit, with the fact Scotland went mostly EU, and a Tory government.

If that fails, then they need some serious thinking time.

I'm inclined to agree, a vote during Brexit would pretty much seal the deal, not because nationalism would die, but because if they can't convince the Scottish to leave under these circumstances, they would struggle to ever convince them.
I don't think that'd stop them from trying though until they eventually get what they want, or the SNP somehow becomes an irrelevance, and Labour, Lib Dems, and the Tories make huge gains.
Needless to say, like the eurosceptics, they aren't going away any time soon.

True. True.
But Id agree if that fails. And they cannot win then.
There credibility as a genuine impendence party is basicly torpedoed critically.

Now they might still exist just fine as a local party, who represent Scottish intests but not one that could lead Scotland as a independent nation.

And just a edit.
If this did go ahead. And SNP mantians similar majority's post indepence there would be no valid and capable opposition in there parliament.
Hmmm a thought. And maybe not the best one for a govement because ofthen its the opposition that keeps you on track and mantains balance, and also keeps the ruling party in check.

I've got a gut feeling that a second Scottish referendum will be for out. The wind seems to be blowing that way. If that's what Scotland decides then so be, but I think it'll definitely leave us both worse off.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I've got a gut feeling that a second Scottish referendum will be for out. The wind seems to be blowing that way. If that's what Scotland decides then so be, but I think it'll definitely leave us both worse off.

See I'm not 100% sure.
Trump, Brexit, and so many wild cards of late. Wild cards are happeneing. More ofthen.
I think it could go either way.

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

Are you Scottish?

British.

Nice try
However, you claim not to care about what a German who says the things you have said, but the point wasn't whether you care or not, but to attempt to make you view your opinions through the lens of someone who opposes you, ie the Scottish Nationalists.

So, I'm asking again, how would you react if a German insisted that we should not have held the EU referendum because it would harm the EU's ability to sort out its difficulties?

That is in essence what you are suggesting, and I don't think it's unreasonable for you to consider what you are saying, and what impact that's likely to have. I would suggest that many Scots could view your stance quite unfavourably?

Nice try? Wtf is that supposed to mean? I consider myself British first and foremost. Britain is my country as far as I'm concerned. Its not some attempt to side step your question.

Again, I don't care what the Germans think, they're not my countrymen.

And i have ALREADY answered you. I did not say Scotland should never have a second referendum, I said they should wait longer. 2020, not 2018. Comparing it to the EU is not valid, the EUs problems asre never going to be solved, they're inherent to the structure of the EU. Brexit however is at most a 2 year process.

"Britain's problems are never going to be solved, they're inherent in British society."

You're making this far too easy.

 jhe90 wrote:
Its been only a few years. Are they gonna keep going till they get right answer kinda way or make it meaningful.

When situation changes why not check what people think? UK isn't same UK they voted to remain in. Makes sense they would want to vote again. After all just because England decided to shoot themselves into foot doesn't mean Scotland should follow suit.

 r_squared wrote:

I'm inclined to agree, a vote during Brexit would pretty much seal the deal, not because nationalism would die, but because if they can't convince the Scottish to leave under these circumstances, they would struggle to ever convince them.

It won't seal the deal but it would push back a further vote for 20+ years, Scottish nationalism isn't going to fade into the night at this stage though; too much of the population support it and the staunchest unionist demographic are the over 65s so unionist support will quite literally die off over the coming years. Obviously a lot can happen in 20 years although I can't see Scotland voting Tory or Labour for a very long time yet.

 r_squared wrote:

I'm convinced that Brexit will lead inexorably towards a united Ireland. But it's too late to go into why right now.

You aren't the only one:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fianna-f%C3%A1il-working-on-plan-for-united-ireland-1.3007587
Fianna Fail is one of the 2 largest parties in the Irish parliament and for their leader to publicly make plans for a reunified Ireland is highly significant.

It seems silly to vote now before you know what Brexit turns out like. Unless the plan is to vote now, and if it doesn't work demand another vote again in a few more years on the basis 'the people didn't know what Brexit would be like'. Scotland can't remain in the EU by leaving the UK, so why the rush? Why not give people the opportunity to see how things are going before voting, it's just unpredictable at the moment.

Given how much Ireland and Northern Ireland don't get on at times, merging them back together probably wouldn't be pretty.


Also, any talk of Indyref2 should wait until after Brexit. Scotland will be leaving the EU regardless. Scotland hasn't even got its own currency, which is a basic requirement of joining the EU.

 welshhoppo wrote:

Also, any talk of Indyref2 should wait until after Brexit. Scotland will be leaving the EU regardless. Scotland hasn't even got its own currency, which is a basic requirement of joining the EU.

The timing is basically down to Westminster, although by late 2018/early 2019 the shape of the general Brexit settlement will be known,

As for the currency, the EU will be falling over themselves to admit Scotland so such things can be smoothed out.

In more general terms the currency question was a huge hurdle that was never resolved during the last referendum, I don't think that the SNP will let that happen a second time. I wouldn't be overly surprised if we end up with the euro.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 welshhoppo wrote:

Also, any talk of Indyref2 should wait until after Brexit. Scotland will be leaving the EU regardless. Scotland hasn't even got its own currency, which is a basic requirement of joining the EU.

The timing is basically down to Westminster, although by late 2018/early 2019 the shape of the general Brexit settlement will be known,

As for the currency, the EU will be falling over themselves to admit Scotland so such things can be smoothed out.

In more general terms the currency question was a huge hurdle that was never resolved during the last referendum, I don't think that the SNP will let that happen a second time. I wouldn't be overly surprised if we end up with the euro.

Aye, if I remember I believe all new countries must take the Euro as their currency. So that is probably what would happen.

 welshhoppo wrote:

Aye, if I remember I believe all new countries must take the Euro as their currency. So that is probably what would happen.

There is no timetable for adopting the Euro however so in reality EU countries can use whatever currency they want for as long as they want.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 r_squared wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

Are you Scottish?

British.

Nice try
However, you claim not to care about what a German who says the things you have said, but the point wasn't whether you care or not, but to attempt to make you view your opinions through the lens of someone who opposes you, ie the Scottish Nationalists.

So, I'm asking again, how would you react if a German insisted that we should not have held the EU referendum because it would harm the EU's ability to sort out its difficulties?

That is in essence what you are suggesting, and I don't think it's unreasonable for you to consider what you are saying, and what impact that's likely to have. I would suggest that many Scots could view your stance quite unfavourably?

Nice try? Wtf is that supposed to mean? I consider myself British first and foremost. Britain is my country as far as I'm concerned. Its not some attempt to side step your question.

Again, I don't care what the Germans think, they're not my countrymen.

And i have ALREADY answered you. I did not say Scotland should never have a second referendum, I said they should wait longer. 2020, not 2018. Comparing it to the EU is not valid, the EUs problems asre never going to be solved, they're inherent to the structure of the EU. Brexit however is at most a 2 year process.

I didn't ask you that, I asked,

how would you react if a German insisted that we should not have held the EU referendum because it would harm the EU's ability to sort out its difficulties?

Is it that you wouldn't like it all if a German said that we shouldn't have voted for Brexit because it was inconvenient for the EU?

Would you be happy if someone had said that? Because that's what you're saying about the Scottish. That they should hold off until it's convenient for the UK because we're entering tough negotiations, brought on by ourselves I hasten to add.

How likely is it, do you think, that a Scot reading what you said would similarly decide that they aren't going to listen to this Englishman/Welshman/Whatever (they may not consider you a fellow countryman btw) whose clearly only interested in his own agenda, and decide that it's another very good reason to end the union?

 Silent Puffin? wrote:



the EU will be falling over themselves to admit Scotland so such things can be smoothed out.

Out of interest what are you basing this assumption on?

Last I checked there were seven countries waiting to join the EU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_enlargement_of_the_European_Union

The process is far from quick, and after the mess that came from fast tracking the likes of Greece in I don;t see the EU having a desire to fast track people again.

Also add to that the fact that Spain would not want to do anything that might help convince Catalonia to keep going with its independence demands and the fact the with the UK leaving the odds don't seem good that the EU will want to add another drain on the massively reduced finances (unless you think Scotland will be a net contributor to the EU?) I'm afraid I just don't see what you are basing this believe upon.


I will add that I firmly believe that Scotland should be able to hold an indy ref if they want one - I'm a true believer in self determination and if they want to leave they should be allowed to - it's the same argument I use to why Gibraltar and the Falklands should remain British and why Britain was right to allow the Brexit vote in the first place. That said I do think it should be AFTER Brexit negotiation are finished, because the only reason to do it before Brexit is finished would have been to keep Scotland in the EU, which even the EU has said is not how it works. This is simply because we are going to have our hands full dealing with Brexit and we should be allowed the opportunity to get the best deal rather than having to split the focus.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:


I don't care what Germans think about Brexit. Germans are not my countrymen and never will be.

The Scots are.

On this basis then as the Scottish voted in the SNP as their government you should be supportive that they want another referendum and should cede to the request because being "your countrypeople" should mean you are more empathetic to their wishes because you care more about them. If you don't support that view then I'm not sure Germans would want you to consider them your countrypeople.