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Herzlos wrote:
I think everyone is assuming that No one is stupid enough to let a no deal happen by default. That this is all an elaborate bluff to get EU concessions before staying in at the last minute.

Alternatively; crashing out is deliberate, people like Mogg will make a fortune on acquisitions before we rejoin under weaker terms.

Welcome to the dark side. I truly believe that was there plan from the start.
If you look at it from that perspective it all makes sense.
Why is the only certainty about brexit is that we will leave at the end of march 2019, but the governments negotiating strategy is to kick the can down the road
and fight with each other?.
Why did we not pay the trade negotiator that we wanted the bit more he wanted?.(because a no deal will cause civil unrest and we will rejoin in about a month, about
the same sort of time that police officers have had leave suspended for)
Why did we not just hire the top 3 candidates?. brexit can only be a success if we get good trade deals, so why did they scrimp on the cost?
Why did davis resign because of the chequers deal, a deal that lasted less than a week before mogg added his amendments and the government
told the whips to force there MP's to vote for HIS plan?. (He knows whats coming and was getting out of dodge, no one can blame him for a no-deal brexit if he
isn't even in the cabinet)
Why have we made so little preparation in terms of border checks?, the Netherlands has hired 4 times as many border security agents than us!,
how is our plan still operation stack forever? (because we won't need it the civil unrest will mean that we rejoin in about a month)
Why are they talking about a blind brexit? who does that help over just extending the negotiating time?
(THEM they will saunter out with no one to stop them, and then unleash no-deal brexit. and no one could stop them because we have already left)

ETC. ETC. ETC...

Think of your own it really matches.

But it's not just disaster capitalists like crispin odey that will win.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html[url]

The anti EU brigade
If we leave the EU who will they rail against? farage is only in the position he's in due to the EU. Who will they blame for the bad deals we will get with all the other Countries we
are so desperate to make trade deals with? etc.
It will also damage the EU,both monetarily and politically. It may cause anti EU sentiment in other countries, like Ireland, who may blame the EU for not protecting them better,
for punishing the UK. etc.
A no deal will probably also strengthen there hand. If we are forced to rejoin, the EU may say we have to get rid of our rebate or something that just plays into there
hands.

The conservative party
Lets face it the torys are finished right now. There have been 5? cabinet ministers resign (it should be more and many should have been sacked), they have presided over the destruction of the public sector, the NHS in need of
so many staff up to there eyeballs in debt and failing there targets repeatedly. The police, numbers and money cut dramatically, whilst crime increases. I read that they won't
investigate a robbery unless more than £5000.00 had been stolen here in south Yorkshire. etc etc.
They have presided over scandal after scandal like Windrush, etc.
We are up to our neck in debt £1.75-2 TRILLION and there austerity measures have barely scratched the deficit.
A no-deal brexit will kick them out of power, and dump the chickens that are coming home to roost on whoever takes over.
They will walk away blaming everyone else for why they didn't get a good deal (the EU, Remainers, the civil service etc.)
and they will get away with it from some parts, the parts that are laughing and saying food shortages are just project fear, that agree with mogg when he said we could just not put
up a border between northern and the republic of Ireland. etc.
They have got away with blaming others before remember when they blamed immigrants and people on benefits for the recession?
how they still blame Labour for the continued use of austerity?

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-austerity-and-welfare-cuts-like-bedroom-tax-directly-caused-brexit-new-academic-study-finds-university-of-warwick-2018_uk_5b632558e4b0fd5c73d73693?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_cs=OtpRLoskV6rUcvdEct6sfA[/url]
A poorer Britain will look for someone to blame, they might blame brexiters or the might blame the EU.

A UKIP spokesman said: “It’s no surprise that some of the poorest areas of the UK are the ones which support Brexit most strongly.

“For decades successive British governments have pursued economic and social agendas set by the European Union. These have undermined the British economy and by extension the poorest in our society. The measures put in place by the EU supporting Tory ministers have only exacerbated these deep problems.

With "facts" like that, ones people already believe, It's not too hard to believe that it will get eaten up as gospel.

And Corbyn will be dumped in a situation where he won't have the money to re-nationalise anything, won't be able to reverse tory cuts, will be taking
a kicking from the media and those on the right for taking us back into the EU (the only viable solution to a no-deal brexit). They are afraid of him
He's almost teflon no mud they have slung at him has stuck except this recent anti-semitism one, which i admit there does seem to be a problem in Labour,
but he can do no right and the ones attacking him are slowly having there voices curtailed for, what some believe, is crying wolf.
His policies are death to austerity and neo-liberal ideas, similar policies are at play in Portugal and appear to be working, at least better than austerity.

It will also "solve" brexit for them. They won't have there name signed all over a deal that will be worse then we have now (rees moog it will take 50 years to see the benefits etc.)
They won't "seem" to be the ones that caused a hard border between the Irelands, at least to those that believe them.
They can have brexit now. Not wait 10 years for the technology to create no border between the Irelands, to continue to negotiate until they get a deal etc.
there is a good chunk of brexit supporters that want it now, because each year the demographic moves towards remain, they may except any brexit and vote
tory for giving it to them, even if it doesn't last long.

It also explains why a few months back there was talk of another election,
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2018/05/29/five-tory-giveaways-that-suggest-we-may-be-heading-for-a-general-election/[/url]
and why may said the NHS can have another £20billion, and why several public services have got a pay rise but no extra money from the treasury.
They are making a legacy, they don't need to balance the books because they won't be in power.

Of course this would require them to move to the right... It's a good thing johnson, gove and mogg have been talking to bannon then
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUKKBN1KH260[url]

There are others but it's sunny outside so i will let you think of them.

It really does seem to explain all the baffling behaviour. Why even bother with a plan if you know it'll be undone almost immediately (after cashing in).

To be fair I'll be cashing in as well; I've got a small fortune in US stock I'll dump once the pound drops to take advantage of the exchange rate.

The weak pound may take with one hand, but it gives with the other.

Britain is undergoing a tourism boom, the likes of which we've never seen. I was watching countryfile earlier and they were saying that tourism will be worth 250 billion to the UK by 2025.

That's a tidy sum for the old GDP, and that boom will bring a gak ton of jobs with it: hotels, tourist guides, food and drink, etc etc

And there's climate change as well. Spain, Portugal and Greece are baking this summer, and if that repeats itself every year, people will naturally flock to cooler climes.

I don't like climate change, but we may as well cash in if more people are flocking to Britain.

And of course, the weak pound is a God send to my foreign customers. Thank you Australia.

'Disappointing' foreign tourist visits despite £5m campaign

That's Wales, of course.

The UK has a vibrant tourism industry partly because we have excellent free museums, and a vibrant arts sector. Guess which two sectors are threatened by austerity cuts.

Plus it's going to get harder to get visas.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
'Disappointing' foreign tourist visits despite £5m campaign

That's Wales, of course.

The UK has a vibrant tourism industry partly because we have excellent free museums, and a vibrant arts sector. Guess which two sectors are threatened by austerity cuts.

Plus it's going to get harder to get visas.

People are probably fed up of me saying this, but that's where we need vision.

I'm sure it's not beyond us to create a seasonal visa scheme for artists visiting us during the art festivals in the summer.

And I'm hearing that HS2 is spiralling out of control. we're looking at 100 billion!

If we say bollocks to HS2, and we should have said it months ago, then we can invest that money into road and infastructure to handle the tourists turning up.

These Tories. Utter incompetence at every turn. Feeble. Useless.

I'm amazed that Brexit has manged to get this far.

But back to tourism. Like I said yesterday, there is a huge and growing middle-class in Inida and China. They have money to burn, and are frequently travelling abroad more and more.

Let's lure them in, and get them to part with the readies in exchange for Duchy originals.

We're not going to do that by tightening the visa rules.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
The weak pound may take with one hand, but it gives with the other.

Britain is undergoing a tourism boom, the likes of which we've never seen. I was watching countryfile earlier and they were saying that tourism will be worth 250 billion to the UK by 2025.

That's a tidy sum for the old GDP, and that boom will bring a gak ton of jobs with it: hotels, tourist guides, food and drink, etc etc

Context is important here....

In 2013 it amounted to 9% of the economy (£126.9bn). By 2025 they are predicting it will be 9.9% of the economy (£257.4bn). Firstly I wouldn't call 0.9% a boom.

So comparing like for like:-

9.9% in 2013 of GDP is equivalent to £139.6bn
Hence, simplistically £257.4bn compared to £139.6bn is equivalent to an 84% increase from inflationary pressures only.
Over 12 years that equates to 7% inflationary increase in prices year on year.

So before you become astounded by the numbers just think about this. They are predicting a 7% inflationary increase every year from 2013. Realistic? Well rampant inflation is not really what the country needs. So either our overall economy is expected to grow stupendously, something that has never happened since the mid 1950s or we are looking at inflation.

Lets say we split evenly between inflation and UK growth. 3.5% inflation is not to be laughed about. 3.5% growth is not something we have seen since the late 1970s. So it is either woefully optimistic or woefully depressing from an inflation perspective. As ever the government is giving you hopelessly optimistic, and almost certainly unrealistic, prediction. Rather than accept the tripe you are fed, *think* about what it means practically.

Regardless I'm not sure growth in a low skilled industry is what we really need. The majority is for waiters, food, shopping and so forth. You are the first to want a grand vision for the UK. Tourism will never provide you this. It is unskilled, basic labour. Whoopee, such a great vision.

And there's climate change as well. Spain, Portugal and Greece are baking this summer, and if that repeats itself every year, people will naturally flock to cooler climes.

I don't like climate change, but we may as well cash in if more people are flocking to Britain.

And of course, the weak pound is a God send to my foreign customers. Thank you Australia.

Yes that's honestly a good reason to think climate change is a good idea. I presume you haven't really studied what happens to the UK then? You may as well count out central London as it is likely a soggy mess by that point.

Are you sure you're not a Tory at heart. The what's best for me and the damn the future consequences is pretty much their mantra? And no disrespect but second hand wargaming supplies is not likely to keep the UK going.

I'm not disputing your numbers Whirlwind, but you're looking at it from a Whitehall account's perspective.

To the man on he street, he sees tons of jobs being created. To your average MP, that's a vote winner on the doorstep. Something to hang your hat on.

And don't be too quick to dismiss these as low paid jobs. They're ideal for students and young people looking to get on in life and build a CV before moving on.

I think I can safely say that most of us probably had gak jobs when we were young.

And if automation takes over, tourist jobs may be one of the few growth industries we have left for the low skilled.

As for climate change, I don't like it, but there's nothing that anybody on dakka can do about it. That's for governments to hammer out a solution.

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

We may as well take advantage of something that's happening anyway and out of our control, whilst hoping a solution can be found.

And before some smart ass says it, no, I'm not basing a Brexit future on climate change.

If Brexit never happened, and we were still in the EU, we'd still be getting climate change.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I'm not disputing your numbers Whirlwind, but you're looking at it from a Whitehall account's perspective.

To the man on he street, he sees tons of jobs being created. To your average MP, that's a vote winner on the doorstep. Something to hang your hat on.

Except it's not job creation, it's job transference. The forecasts in total eligible working population between now and 2025 are effectively zero change (using age groups of 15 - 60 as a baseline) - 38.7 million now, 38.6 million in 2025.

As such any percentage change means that the employment has to come from somewhere else. You have to lose part of another industry to gain growth in another. We could break that slightly if:-

(a) We de-educate the population forcing more into work at a younger age - long term that means your country becomes poorer; or
(b) You increase the pension age forcing more people to work longer (work till you drop mentality) - Again this is not great for the output of the country as, as we get older our overall contribution drops.

Hence you aren't actually creating any new jobs, your just moving the employment around and transferring work to lower grade work. This is not a good idea for any country that wants to grow and compete. You want to be moving people to more high quality jobs. All you actually causes by championing such jobs is an the transfer of wealth to a few at the expense of the many. We won't have a sudden influx of students to do these jobs; that population growth is not on the horizon; what you are seeing is wide scale redistribution of jobs to lower tier, lower quality, lower pay. Economically that is a terrible thing to be planning because it makes the country poorer.

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

However the point obviously missed is the assumption that we will be isolated from climate change. We will not be our weather patterns will change to more extreme weather as well. Low lying areas will flood (including central london) and perhaps large parts of the east coast depending on whether we contain it at all. You are making the assumption that everything will be rosy - it will definitely not be. Areas of world will become uninhabitable which will drive immigration, food and water shortages. 50% of our food already comes from abroad (mainly the EU). If we lose the east coast then that's probably another 50% of our food growing ability. Food growth in some areas will dry up. If there is a shortage of food institutions will priortise their own needs over others. It is hopeless naive to sit there and state but we might get more tourists when the 'benefit' of climate change will be negligible compared to the costs. But please go ahead and stick your head in the sand if you want.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

Do you just invent all the numbers you post in here? Only three Spanish cities have ever reached 45 degrees and average warmest month tenperatures are a solid 10 degrees below that. You're quoting the kinds of temperatures I only see when I'm working jn Iraq in July and August.

nfe wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

Do you just invent all the numbers you post in here?

Yes.

nfe wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

Do you just invent all the numbers you post in here? Only three Spanish cities have ever reached 45 degrees and average warmest month tenperatures are a solid 10 degrees below that. You're quoting the kinds of temperatures I only see when I'm working jn Iraq in July and August.

That't been his modus operandi for years. That's how he can defend brexit. He just invents good numbers to make it look like good ldea

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


These Tories. Utter incompetence at every turn. Feeble. Useless.

I'm amazed that Brexit has manged to get this far.

It's not the Tories that are at fault. Brexit was a stupid idea from the start and doomed to fail. I'm getting rather fed up with the pro brexit camp blaming the government and the EU right from the start. It was always a stupid idea and it was always going to fail for exactly the reasons remain laid out right from the start. The amount of made up or distorted numbers you need to defend it proves this.

Brexit was a stupid idea that the Tories made a referendum about to try and prevent their anti-EU wing from splitting off like lots of Tory voters already had defected to UKIP.

Having run and lost the referendum, the Tory government then screwed implementation by a series of bad moves:

1. Triggered Article 50 early and set a time limit.
2. Laid down the red lines which make it impossible to do a deal.
3. Held a general election to get national support for their Brexit programme -- and essentially lose it.
4. Generally muck around like silly schoolboys instead of getting stuck into solving the bad situation they had created.

But having said all that, the Labour Party aren't doing their proper job as Loyal Opposition.

 Steve steveson wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


These Tories. Utter incompetence at every turn. Feeble. Useless.

I'm amazed that Brexit has manged to get this far.

It's not the Tories that are at fault. Brexit was a stupid idea from the start and doomed to fail. I'm getting rather fed up with the pro brexit camp blaming the government and the EU right from the start. It was always a stupid idea and it was always going to fail for exactly the reasons remain laid out right from the start. The amount of made up or distorted numbers you need to defend it proves this.

But the government are incompetent though. That's one of the very few things both sides agree on. Bojo, Cameron, Fox, Gove. None of them are fit to run a fish and chip van.

As I've said before, I'm not sure why Remain supporters on this thread are worried. Give-away-May will roll up the white flag in the Autumn, so we'll be back in the EU at any rate, anyway.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Brexit was a stupid idea that the Tories made a referendum about to try and prevent their anti-EU wing from splitting off like lots of Tory voters already had defected to UKIP.

Having run and lost the referendum, the Tory government then screwed implementation by a series of bad moves:

1. Triggered Article 50 early and set a time limit.
2. Laid down the red lines which make it impossible to do a deal.
3. Held a general election to get national support for their Brexit programme -- and essentially lose it.
4. Generally muck around like silly schoolboys instead of getting stuck into solving the bad situation they had created.

But having said all that, the Labour Party aren't doing their proper job as Loyal Opposition.

I agree with every one of those points, but trouble is, you lot down south will vote for them by the millions come next election.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

tneva82 wrote:

nfe wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

Do you just invent all the numbers you post in here? Only three Spanish cities have ever reached 45 degrees and average warmest month tenperatures are a solid 10 degrees below that. You're quoting the kinds of temperatures I only see when I'm working jn Iraq in July and August.

That't been his modus operandi for years. That's how he can defend brexit. He just invents good numbers to make it look like good ldea

Meh. All you do is snipe from the sidelines, but I forgive you

I hope that Britain still has friendly relations with Finland for years to come.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

nfe wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

Do you just invent all the numbers you post in here? Only three Spanish cities have ever reached 45 degrees and average warmest month tenperatures are a solid 10 degrees below that. You're quoting the kinds of temperatures I only see when I'm working jn Iraq in July and August.

'Only' 45 degrees? It's not likely to get better though, is it? The Southern Med is not going to be much of a tourist destination in summer, if people are getting the gas mark 16 treatment every day!

Britain and Scandanavia are well placed to cash in with rising temperatures.

Naturally of course, we all hope global action is taken to tackle this huge problem.

DINLT, you were calling for Article 50 to have been invoked literally the day after the referendum.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


Automatically Appended Next Post:

nfe wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But if the reality is that Spain is baking every year in a 45 degree summer or there abouts, and Britain is a lot cooler, people will naturally flock to the cooler northern climes.

Do you just invent all the numbers you post in here? Only three Spanish cities have ever reached 45 degrees and average warmest month tenperatures are a solid 10 degrees below that. You're quoting the kinds of temperatures I only see when I'm working jn Iraq in July and August.

'Only' 45 degrees? It's not likely to get better though, is it? The Southern Med is not going to be much of a tourist destination in summer, if people are getting the gas mark 16 treatment every day!

Britain and Scandanavia are well placed to cash in with rising temperatures.

Naturally of course, we all hope global action is taken to tackle this huge problem.

I didn't say 'only 45 degrees'. I said only three Spanish cities have ever recorded a temperature as high as 45 degrees. Again, where did you get that figure as an average when the average in the warmest months in the hottest regions is ten degrees lower? Your imagination? Wild guessing?

In any case, global warning is not threatening a leap in temperatures as experienced by humans. We're talking about very slight increases in terms of how we feel in the heat, it's just that on a global scale very small increases are catastrophic. Spanish tourism isn't going to fall apart because Barcelona averages 30.5 in August instead of 30.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

To the man on he street, he sees tons of jobs being created. To your average MP, that's a vote winner on the doorstep. Something to hang your hat on.

He's going to see lots of low quality, low reliability, low paid, crappy condition and hour jobs created, and a generation of full time earners who can't afford to move out of their parents house.

They're ideal for students and young people looking to get on in life and build a CV before moving on.

Before moving on to where? A lot of the high skill, high paid jobs are being driven away (science, culture, manufacturing, R&D, banking), others that support businesses will shrink with demand (less businesses means less accountants, surveyors, etc & less money means less renovation and building). There will be some things with constant demand (doctors, dentists, undertakers) but they only take up a tiny percentage of the population.

Tourism isn't something to hang any hats on - it's very concentrated, and since we import a lot, the costs will go up whilst profits go down. Those earning the money from tourism still can't afford much as the prices have gone up. Austerity will directly hurt a lot of the things tourists go to - museums, national parks, etc. As stated, the growth in tourism is tiny.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But the government are incompetent though. That's one of the very few things both sides agree on. Bojo, Cameron, Fox, Gove. None of them are fit to run a fish and chip van.

Brexit being a bad idea and the government being incompetent* are not mutually exclusive though. Brexit was hard enough to make a success of without incompetence*.

You still voted for Brexit despite both facts. You pressed for them to get on with it as soon as possible without any plan, concern about the details or any problems.


*I suspect it's malice, at this stage. Even incompetent people get more right by accident than this lot.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Brexit was a stupid idea that the Tories made a referendum about to try and prevent their anti-EU wing from splitting off like lots of Tory voters already had defected to UKIP.

Having run and lost the referendum, the Tory government then screwed implementation by a series of bad moves:

1. Triggered Article 50 early and set a time limit.
2. Laid down the red lines which make it impossible to do a deal.
3. Held a general election to get national support for their Brexit programme -- and essentially lose it.
4. Generally muck around like silly schoolboys instead of getting stuck into solving the bad situation they had created.

But having said all that, the Labour Party aren't doing their proper job as Loyal Opposition.

I agree with every one of those points, but trouble is, you lot down south will vote for them by the millions come next election.

You continually lambast people for voting in the Tories no matter what they did to the country yet you yourself have admitted you voted and would again for Brexit no matter the cost to the country. How is this any different?

I will be worried until the day I see formal acceptance from the EU of a request to repeal our article 50 notification. Up to that point we are still at risk of crashing out and at the moment our government seem politically and intellectually incapable of making the request, never mind getting the EU to accept it.

 gianlucafiorentini123 wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Brexit was a stupid idea that the Tories made a referendum about to try and prevent their anti-EU wing from splitting off like lots of Tory voters already had defected to UKIP.

Having run and lost the referendum, the Tory government then screwed implementation by a series of bad moves:

1. Triggered Article 50 early and set a time limit.
2. Laid down the red lines which make it impossible to do a deal.
3. Held a general election to get national support for their Brexit programme -- and essentially lose it.
4. Generally muck around like silly schoolboys instead of getting stuck into solving the bad situation they had created.

But having said all that, the Labour Party aren't doing their proper job as Loyal Opposition.

I agree with every one of those points, but trouble is, you lot down south will vote for them by the millions come next election.

You continually lambast people for voting in the Tories no matter what they did to the country yet you yourself have admitted you voted and would again for Brexit no matter the cost to the country. How is this any different?

You forget your British history. Brexit is, and should be an issue that crosses the political spectrum. People forget that long ago, Labour was a socialist party, and not this cabal of Blairites and war criminals.

The main opposition to the EEC was the Left, Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner being notable examples. Back then, the Tories were EEC enthusiasts.

Hell, even the SNP were anti-EEC at one time. Changed days.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Jadenim wrote:
I will be worried until the day I see formal acceptance from the EU of a request to repeal our article 50 notification. Up to that point we are still at risk of crashing out and at the moment our government seem politically and intellectually incapable of making the request, never mind getting the EU to accept it.

It's a non-starter. Too much water under the bridge. And is any French politician going to stand up and say, sorry lads, those EU jobs we got from London. We have to hand them back.


Never going to happen.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

To the man on he street, he sees tons of jobs being created. To your average MP, that's a vote winner on the doorstep. Something to hang your hat on.

He's going to see lots of low quality, low reliability, low paid, crappy condition and hour jobs created, and a generation of full time earners who can't afford to move out of their parents house.

They're ideal for students and young people looking to get on in life and build a CV before moving on.

Before moving on to where? A lot of the high skill, high paid jobs are being driven away (science, culture, manufacturing, R&D, banking), others that support businesses will shrink with demand (less businesses means less accountants, surveyors, etc & less money means less renovation and building). There will be some things with constant demand (doctors, dentists, undertakers) but they only take up a tiny percentage of the population.

Tourism isn't something to hang any hats on - it's very concentrated, and since we import a lot, the costs will go up whilst profits go down. Those earning the money from tourism still can't afford much as the prices have gone up. Austerity will directly hurt a lot of the things tourists go to - museums, national parks, etc. As stated, the growth in tourism is tiny.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

But the government are incompetent though. That's one of the very few things both sides agree on. Bojo, Cameron, Fox, Gove. None of them are fit to run a fish and chip van.

Brexit being a bad idea and the government being incompetent* are not mutually exclusive though. Brexit was hard enough to make a success of without incompetence*.

You still voted for Brexit despite both facts. You pressed for them to get on with it as soon as possible without any plan, concern about the details or any problems.


*I suspect it's malice, at this stage. Even incompetent people get more right by accident than this lot.

Most of what you say would still happen even if we were in the EU.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:
DINLT, you were calling for Article 50 to have been invoked literally the day after the referendum.

I can't even remember what I was doing two days ago, never mind two years ago.

I don't get your point about left/right and the EEC - we're not in the EEC now, and none of that suddenly makes Brexit a good idea.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

It's a non-starter. Too much water under the bridge. And is any French politician going to stand up and say, sorry lads, those EU jobs we got from London. We have to hand them back.

The jobs that are already gone aren't coming back. The jobs that haven't gone can't be counted. There's nothing non-starter about withdrawing A50 beyond denial.
Plus it's swings and roundabouts - they'd lose some potential jobs, but they'd also avoid any trade related suffering.

I can't even remember what I was doing two days ago, never mind two years ago.

Well we can. You're lambasting the government for having done something you were jumping up and down on here about them doing. Not being able to remember doesn't prevent it being hypocritical.

Most of it will happen if we stay in the EU? Absolutely not.

Some of it might happen, a lot slower, but most of the jobs we're chasing off will stay if we stay in the EU (apart from those we've already lost). We were leading the world in all sort of things in conjunction with the EU, and we're potentially throwing that away.

Inside the EU, we don't need to give away the Airbus, Nissan, Toyota, or BMW factories. We'd still be competing for and getting research grants and collaborating on projects. We'd still have a banking sector. And so on. Sure, automation will change the landscape but the same was said about steam and electrification. We've had 3 industrial revolutions so far and still have skilled, well paid jobs, just different ones from the past.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 gianlucafiorentini123 wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Brexit was a stupid idea that the Tories made a referendum about to try and prevent their anti-EU wing from splitting off like lots of Tory voters already had defected to UKIP.

Having run and lost the referendum, the Tory government then screwed implementation by a series of bad moves:

1. Triggered Article 50 early and set a time limit.
2. Laid down the red lines which make it impossible to do a deal.
3. Held a general election to get national support for their Brexit programme -- and essentially lose it.
4. Generally muck around like silly schoolboys instead of getting stuck into solving the bad situation they had created.

But having said all that, the Labour Party aren't doing their proper job as Loyal Opposition.

I agree with every one of those points, but trouble is, you lot down south will vote for them by the millions come next election.

You continually lambast people for voting in the Tories no matter what they did to the country yet you yourself have admitted you voted and would again for Brexit no matter the cost to the country. How is this any different?

You forget your British history. Brexit is, and should be an issue that crosses the political spectrum. People forget that long ago, Labour was a socialist party, and not this cabal of Blairites and war criminals.

The main opposition to the EEC was the Left, Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner being notable examples. Back then, the Tories were EEC enthusiasts.

Hell, even the SNP were anti-EEC at one time. Changed days.

Did you read my post?

I didn't mention anything to do with parties support of Brexit. I was pointing out that you criticising people for voting for people no matter the consequences yet you yourself have done the same thing.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:
You effectively said it would be easy by saying we should have invoked article 50 the day after the referendum, completely ignoring all of the work that was required to prepare for the negotiations.

Considering the complete and utter feth up we've had from delaying A50 activation, I don't think it could have gone any worse. It might have sped up the process by focusing some minds. At any rate, the government should have been working at it hammer and tongs 24/7.

If you've any complaints as to why pre-referendum planning for a Leave vote didn't happen, then I suggest you direct them to one David Cameron.

Two years ago? Try December 2017.

I jest of course, Herzlos.

On a serious note, if we go back 2 years, anybody who claimed to be able to predict the next two years, was quite frankly, talking out their rear.


I've said before what I would do if I were in charge. EEA would be put on the table.


But I'm not in charge, and if anybody is unhappy with the current course of events, I suggest you contact your MP or direct your enquiries to:


Rt. Hon T. May

10 Downing Street

London

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Jadenim wrote:
I will be worried until the day I see formal acceptance from the EU of a request to repeal our article 50 notification. Up to that point we are still at risk of crashing out and at the moment our government seem politically and intellectually incapable of making the request, never mind getting the EU to accept it.

It's a non-starter. Too much water under the bridge. And is any French politician going to stand up and say, sorry lads, those EU jobs we got from London. We have to hand them back.


Never going to happen.

Then its a good thing they don't have to agree. We can unilaterally rescind the A50 notification right up to the day we leave.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I jest of course, Herzlos.

It's honestly hard to tell, so I apologise.

On a serious note, if we go back 2 years, anybody who claimed to be able to predict the next two years, was quite frankly, talking out their rear.

But negotiations, the damage and resulting clusterfeth are happening almost exactly like Remain and Remainers warned you (on here) before the referendum. We're not surprised at any of the reactions, but stunned at how much worse it is than we thought.

I've said before what I would do if I were in charge. EEA would be put on the table.

You've only come round to the EEA as a way to leave by the back door, once the threat of staying in appeared. That was maybe a month ago. For the 2 years proceeding that (correct me if I'm wrong) you've been banging on about going WTO and just walking away.

But I'm not in charge

You voted for it. You voted for the Tories to manage this clusterfeth. You shoulder 1/17,600,000th of the blame for the result. You can't vote for this and then claim it's not your fault or responsibility. That's a cop out and you know it.

I still support Brexit, and for tactical reasons, and playing the long game, I have swung in behind the EEA/EFTA option.

"When the facts change, I change my opinion, what do you do, sir?"

That's a famous Keynes quote, and one I endorse. The gross incompetence of the Tories has changed the facts of the situation, so I have adjusted accordingly.


I put my hand up and say I was in favour of an immediate activation of A50. But obviously, as outlined above, things are different.


I have decided to be flexible and pragmatic. If anybody is expecting me to fall on my kness, repent, don sackcloth and ashes and endorse the EU, then they've come to the wrong place.


That is my final position for the foreseeable future. You can take it or leave it.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I still support Brexit, and for tactical reasons, and playing the long game, I have swung in behind the EEA/EFTA option.

"When the facts change, I change my opinion, what do you do, sir?"

That's a famous Keynes quote, and one I endorse. The gross incompetence of the Tories has changed the facts of the situation, so I have adjusted accordingly.


I put my hand up and say I was in favour of an immediate activation of A50. But obviously, as outlined above, things are different.


I have decided to be flexible and pragmatic. If anybody is expecting me to fall on my kness, repent, don sackcloth and ashes and endorse the EU, then they've come to the wrong place.


That is my final position for the foreseeable future. You can take it or leave it.

The facts haven't changed. You've just decided to start believing them.

That's exactly our point.

And that despite the incompetence of the Tories and the damage brexit will do, you still want to do it, via some worst-of-both-worlds compromise, because you fear people will see sense and bring us back into the EU otherwise.

You also seem to ignore that the EEA option isn't going to satisfy most of your Brexit voting brethren.