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SM hand flamer: S4 AP-1 d6 automatic hits.

SoB hand flamer: S2 AP+1 d3 automatic hits
SoB hand flamers: S2 AP+1 d6 automatic hits

Problem solved!

As a proud owner of 8 leman russes, and four of which have battlecannons, I can say what they currently released is underwhelming for the gun. It is too unpredicable. Seems like it should belong on an Ork tank, not a Guardsmen. However, from what they have been releasing, 8th in general is going to be heavily luck based, as many weapons, laz cannon included are doing d6.

Personally, I would have preferred 3d3 for the battlecannon. Or even just 2d3 to give it at least two hits. But, with everything being able to splitfire now, this may be less problematic than we think. Especially if the LR is not as expensive as it currently is. Which I assume will be the case due to its T8.

I suspect the Battlecannon Leman Russ will be outshitned by all its sisters, however, if its cheaper than the rest, i will do nicely as a support gun. Three heavy bolters, a heavy stubbor plus a battle cannon at an infantry squad seems pretty useful, even if the heavy bolters are more consistent.

So I just did the math on Lascannon vs Battle Cannon on a leman Russ, and Heavy bolter vs Battle Cannon on MEQ

VS. Leman Russ
Lascannon:
.5 hits
.2777 wounds after saves
D6 damage = .97222 damage caused

Battlecannon:
1.75 hits
.58333 wounds after saves
d3 damage = 1.1666 damage caused




VS. MEQ
Heavy Bolter:
1.5 hits
1 wound
.5 casualties after saves

Battle Cannon:
1.75 hits
1.458333 wounds
.97222 casualties after saves


So there you have it. The battle cannon can either wound a vehicle roughly the same as a 20 points lascannon, or wound Space Marines roughly the same as 2 10 points heavy bolters. So I would say that if a Battle Cannon could be taken on its own as a heavy weapon, it would cost roughly 25 points. Vanilla Russes have a heavy bolter in the hull making their total weaponry worth 35 points. So the question now is, how much is a 12 wound 3+ save platform worth? 65 points? So a Leman Russ should cost around 100 points based on what we have so far. I don't find that likley to happen. But I will hold judgement until the final game is released.

IronJack wrote:
So the question now is, how much is a 12 wound 3+ save platform worth? 65 points?

No
65 Points sounds like ... T7, 8 wounds, 3+ Save Platform
Going into T8 sounds like it's worth maybe a Mark of Nurgle, so 15 Points.
Getting an additional 4 wounds, probably another 5 points per wound.

So that makes the platform worth around 100 points. Add the weapons, and we get that it should cost around 135.

 mrhappyface wrote:

 master of ordinance wrote:
losing firepower on the main gun is a big thing.

Your main gun is now a big monster/tank/small elite units hunter, that is not a loss of fire power it's a change of target priority. If you want to blast infantry again I am sure the punisher will step up and do remember this is the base Russ model i.e. the cheapest, so the gun shouldn't be able to auto kill everything.

Too bad all those roles are better done by other russ variants...You want elite unit killer that does nicely against monsters? Exterminator. Or you want to bust big models? Vanquisher.

Godhammer landraiders. Great again.

tneva82 wrote:

 mrhappyface wrote:

 master of ordinance wrote:
losing firepower on the main gun is a big thing.

Your main gun is now a big monster/tank/small elite units hunter, that is not a loss of fire power it's a change of target priority. If you want to blast infantry again I am sure the punisher will step up and do remember this is the base Russ model i.e. the cheapest, so the gun shouldn't be able to auto kill everything.

Too bad all those roles are better done by other russ variants...You want elite unit killer that does nicely against monsters? Exterminator. Or you want to bust big models? Vanquisher.

Vanquisher Cannon is S-1 and causes permanent armor save bonuses, Exterminator can only be fired at friendly models.

Comparative analysis at this point is chasing imaginary butterflies.

IronJack wrote:
So I just did the math on Lascannon vs Battle Cannon on a leman Russ, and Heavy bolter vs Battle Cannon on MEQ

VS. Leman Russ
Lascannon:
.5 hits
.2777 wounds after saves
D6 damage = .97222 damage caused

Battlecannon:
1.75 hits
.58333 wounds after saves
d3 damage = 1.1666 damage caused




VS. MEQ
Heavy Bolter:
1.5 hits
1 wound
.5 casualties after saves

Battle Cannon:
1.75 hits
1.458333 wounds
.97222 casualties after saves


So there you have it. The battle cannon can either wound a vehicle roughly the same as a 20 points lascannon, or wound Space Marines roughly the same as 2 10 points heavy bolters. So I would say that if a Battle Cannon could be taken on its own as a heavy weapon, it would cost roughly 25 points. Vanilla Russes have a heavy bolter in the hull making their total weaponry worth 35 points. So the question now is, how much is a 12 wound 3+ save platform worth? 65 points? So a Leman Russ should cost around 100 points based on what we have so far. I don't find that likley to happen. But I will hold judgement until the final game is released.

Sorry, but you are messing around with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_and_independent_variables

Since your wound roll/save determines if you roll for number of wounds at all, your results are wrong.

I would recommend to adhere to simulations.

EDIT: I was correct before, made a stupid mistake:

Here are my current results:

S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.944035182134801, average turns to death 7.033115
S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.7498897608981188, average turns to death 7.65155
S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.7512314235933175, average turns to death 7.8056
S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D 2D6 MAX vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 2.238095443126066, average turns to death 6.270834

Here is the code, maybe someone can check it:

P.S.: If you look at the main method the one liners are basically what you do to define a simulation and print its result. It should be quite easy to add other scenarions. Note that Invulnerability saves are not done, since I don't know how they work.

import java.text.DecimalFormat; import java.text.DecimalFormatSymbols; import java.text.NumberFormat; import java.util.Locale; import java.util.Random; public class FourtyK8th { static final Random r = new Random(System.currentTimeMillis()); static int d6() { return r.nextInt(6) + 1; } enum VariantStat { ONE(1), TWO(2), THREE(3), FOUR(4), FIVE(5), SIX(6), D3(1, 3), D6(1, 6), TWOD3(2, 3), TWOD6(2, 6), TWOD6MAX(2, 6, true); final String name; private final int number; private final int diceDiv; private final int numberOfDice; private final boolean max; private VariantStat(int numberOfDice, int diceType) { this.name = (numberOfDice > 1 ? numberOfDice + "D" : "D") + diceType; this.number = 0; this.diceDiv = diceType == 3 ? 2 : 1; this.numberOfDice = numberOfDice; this.max = false; } private VariantStat(int numberOfDice, int diceType, boolean max) { this.name = (numberOfDice > 1 ? numberOfDice + "D" : "D") + diceType + (max ? " MAX" : ""); this.number = 0; this.diceDiv = diceType == 3 ? 2 : 1; this.numberOfDice = numberOfDice; this.max = max; } private VariantStat(int number) { this.name = String.valueOf(number); this.number = number; this.diceDiv = 0; this.numberOfDice = 0; this.max = false; } final int numberValue() { if (number > 0) { return number; } int result = 0; for (int i = 0; i < numberOfDice; i++) { if (max) { result = Math.max(result, d6()); } else { result += d6() / diceDiv; } } return result; } } static final class TargetStats { final int toughness; final int wounds; final int save; final int invulnerabilitySave; public TargetStats(int toughness, int wounds, int save, int invulnerabilitySave) { super(); this.toughness = toughness; this.wounds = wounds; this.save = save; this.invulnerabilitySave = invulnerabilitySave; } public TargetStats(int toughness, int wounds, int save) { super(); this.toughness = toughness; this.wounds = wounds; this.save = save; this.invulnerabilitySave = 7; } @Override public String toString() { return "T " + toughness + ", W " + wounds + ", Sv " + save + "+" + (invulnerabilitySave < 7 ? ", ISv " + invulnerabilitySave + "+" : ""); } } static final class WeaponStats { final int skill; final int strength; final int ap; final VariantStat shots; final VariantStat damage; public WeaponStats(int skill, int strength, int ap, VariantStat shots, VariantStat damage) { super(); this.skill = skill; this.strength = strength; this.ap = ap; this.shots = shots; this.damage = damage; } @Override public String toString() { return "BS " + skill + "+, S " + strength + ", AP " + ap + ", SHOTS " + shots.name + ", D " + damage.name; } } static final class SimulationResult { final double averageTurnsToDeath; final double averageDamagePerTurn; final double averageKillsPerTurn; final WeaponStats weapon; final TargetStats target; public SimulationResult(WeaponStats weapon, TargetStats target, double averageTurnsToDeath, double averageDamagePerTurn, double averageKillsPerTurn) { super(); this.weapon = weapon; this.target = target; this.averageTurnsToDeath = averageTurnsToDeath; this.averageDamagePerTurn = averageDamagePerTurn; this.averageKillsPerTurn = averageKillsPerTurn; } public double getAverageTurnsToDeath() { return averageTurnsToDeath; } public double getAverageDamagePerTurn() { return averageDamagePerTurn; } @Override public String toString() { NumberFormat format = new DecimalFormat("0.00", DecimalFormatSymbols.getInstance(Locale.UK)); return weapon.toString() + " vs. " + target.toString() + ": average damage per turn " + format.format(averageDamagePerTurn) + ", average turns to death " + format.format(averageTurnsToDeath) + ", average kills per turn " + format.format(averageKillsPerTurn); } } public static SimulationResult simulate(WeaponStats weapon, TargetStats target) { double totalDamage = 0; double totalKills = 0; final int iterations = 1000000; int wounds = target.wounds; for (int i = 0; i < iterations; i++) { int shots = weapon.shots.numberValue(); for (int j = 0; j < shots; j++) { if (d6() >= weapon.skill && toWound(weapon.strength, target.toughness) && toPenetrate(weapon.ap, target.save, target.invulnerabilitySave)) { int damage = weapon.damage.numberValue(); if (damage < wounds) { wounds -= damage; totalDamage += damage; } else { totalDamage += wounds; totalKills++; wounds = target.wounds; } } } } return new SimulationResult(weapon, target, iterations / totalKills, totalDamage / iterations, totalKills / iterations); } private static boolean toPenetrate(int ap, int save, int invulnerabilitySave) { // TODO: Invulnerability saves return d6() + ap < save; } private static boolean toWound(int strength, int toughness) { int toWoundRoll = 4; if (strength < toughness) { toWoundRoll = 5; if (strength <= toughness * 2) { toWoundRoll = 6; } } else if (strength > toughness) { toWoundRoll = 3; if (strength >= toughness * 2) { toWoundRoll = 2; } } return d6() >= toWoundRoll; } public static void main(String[] args) { System.out.println("vs Terminators --------------------------"); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 8, -2, VariantStat.D6, VariantStat.D3), new TargetStats(4, 2, 2))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 5, -1, VariantStat.THREE, VariantStat.ONE), new TargetStats(4, 2, 2))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 9, -3, VariantStat.ONE, VariantStat.D6), new TargetStats(4, 2, 2))); System.out.println(""); System.out.println("vs Leman Russ --------------------------"); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 9, -3, VariantStat.ONE, VariantStat.D6), new TargetStats(8, 12, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 8, -2, VariantStat.D6, VariantStat.D3), new TargetStats(8, 12, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 8, -4, VariantStat.ONE, VariantStat.D6), new TargetStats(8, 12, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 5, -1, VariantStat.THREE, VariantStat.ONE), new TargetStats(8, 12, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 8, -4, VariantStat.ONE, VariantStat.TWOD6MAX), new TargetStats(8, 12, 3))); System.out.println(""); System.out.println("vs Space Marine --------------------------"); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 9, -3, VariantStat.ONE, VariantStat.D6), new TargetStats(4, 1, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 8, -2, VariantStat.D6, VariantStat.D3), new TargetStats(4, 1, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 8, -4, VariantStat.ONE, VariantStat.D6), new TargetStats(4, 1, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 5, -1, VariantStat.THREE, VariantStat.ONE), new TargetStats(4, 1, 3))); System.out.println(simulate(new WeaponStats(4, 5, -1, VariantStat.SIX, VariantStat.ONE), new TargetStats(4, 1, 3))); } }

I don't like the Random part. Cause it's not random. If you want an average result, you need averages - not randoms.

 koooaei wrote:
I don't like the Random part. Cause it's not random. If you want an average result, you need averages - not randoms.

I am sorry, but an average is the sum of randoms divided by the number of your tries. Thats what a simulation is all about. If you want to do it with statics I would like to see your results. But then you have to go through all the pain of linear independent variables and binominal distribution. Just multiplying averages does not work in this case.

My simulator is here, and i've recently added a visualization spreadsheet with some aggregate functions.

4+ to hit Russ with 2 Heavy Bolters, Lascannon and battle cannon shooting at a MEQ 100,000 times breaks down as follows:
hb_m hb_w bc_m bc_w lc_m lc_w Medi 2 2 1 2 0 0 #Med 33147 33147 36767 14730 66796 66796 Max 6 6 6 15 1 3 #Max 125 125 27 1 33204 11015 ‘1’ 26324 26324 36767 12083 33204 11093

3+ to hit russ (commander?) under same conditions
hb_m hb_w bc_m bc_w lc_m lc_w Medi 3.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 #Medi 30287 30287 33387 17181 55637 55637 #Max 779 779 121 3 44363 14888 ‘1’ 14089 14089 33387 11179 44363 14662
hb - heavy bolter
bc - battle cannon
lc - lascannon
m - models wounded and failed save
w - wounds inflicted after failed save
Median - the most common result for the result in question
#Medi - number of instances the median result happened
Max - the highest result that happened - Battle Cannon went crazy dice exactly once in 100,000 tries, and it still didn't get the maximum possible.
#max - number of instances the best possible result happened
'1' - number of instances exactly 1 model or wound was affected. in the lascannon's case, it did nothing more often than it wounded.

Going by median results only; 2 heavy bolters kill between 2 and 3 times as many marines as a battle cannon.

 malamis wrote:
My simulator is here, and i've recently added a visualization spreadsheet with some aggregate functions.

Hmm...

I adjusted my code to track kills per turn.

I get:

S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.7076403100448667, average turns to death 7.027241, average kills per turn 0.14230335917040557
S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.677694325358983, average turns to death 7.649735, average kills per turn 0.13072452836601528
S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.5358124588690225, average turns to death 7.813454, average kills per turn 0.12798437157241854
S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 3, D 1 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 0.2500380536432628, average turns to death 48.326516, average kills per turn 0.020692573824274856
S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D 2D6 MAX vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.9099357083808297, average turns to death 6.282934, average kills per turn 0.1591613090317358
S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3: average damage per turn 0.6942848553561647, average turns to death 1.440331, average kills per turn 0.6942848553561647
S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.6209883212555096, average turns to death 1.232838, average kills per turn 1.6209883212555096
S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3: average damage per turn 0.8331465696439715, average turns to death 1.200269, average kills per turn 0.8331465696439715
S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 3, D 1 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3: average damage per turn 0.9990549420413674, average turns to death 1.422135, average kills per turn 0.9990549420413674
S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 6, D 1 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3: average damage per turn 1.9979869346862007, average turns to death 1.096338, average kills per turn 1.9979869346862007

With two heavy bolters being significantly better than a battle cannon.

Since the heavy bolter does not let us descend into evil statistics we can just calculate its average expected space marine kills as 3 × 2/3 × 1/2 = 1.
And since space marines have only 1 wound, it seems 3.5 × 5/6 × 2/3 = 1.94 is quite correct.

UncleThomson wrote:


Since the heavy bolter does not let us descend into evil statistics we can just calculate its average expected space marine kills as 3 × 2/3 × 1/2 = 1.
And since space marines have only 1 wound, it seems 3.5 × 5/6 × 2/3 = 1.94 is quite correct.

The HB being slightly too good made me realise i'd set the LR to 'BS 4' instead of 4+ to hit; reran the simulation and yes, 2 kills per volley was the median result.

IronJack wrote:
So I just did the math on Lascannon vs Battle Cannon on a leman Russ, and Heavy bolter vs Battle Cannon on MEQ

VS. Leman Russ
Lascannon:
.5 hits
.2777 wounds after saves
D6 damage = .97222 damage caused

Battlecannon:
1.75 hits
.58333 wounds after saves
d3 damage = 1.1666 damage caused




VS. MEQ
Heavy Bolter:
1.5 hits
1 wound
.5 casualties after saves

Battle Cannon:
1.75 hits
1.458333 wounds
.97222 casualties after saves


So there you have it. The battle cannon can either wound a vehicle roughly the same as a 20 points lascannon, or wound Space Marines roughly the same as 2 10 points heavy bolters. So I would say that if a Battle Cannon could be taken on its own as a heavy weapon, it would cost roughly 25 points. Vanilla Russes have a heavy bolter in the hull making their total weaponry worth 35 points. So the question now is, how much is a 12 wound 3+ save platform worth? 65 points? So a Leman Russ should cost around 100 points based on what we have so far. I don't find that likley to happen. But I will hold judgement until the final game is released.

Not saying that it's actually properly costed right now, but isn't the cost of upgrading a LR to a battlecannon exactly 30pts currently? because, just to point something out here: Try doing the math of the lascannon vs MEQ and the HB vs Tank. I can't say somethings bad or good until I see points costs, but I'd bet that if you had a Lascannon that magically turned into 2 heavy bolters when you fired it at infantry, you'd probably pay a few points more for that than a regular lascannon.

the_scotsman wrote:


Not saying that it's actually properly costed right now, but isn't the cost of upgrading a LR to a battlecannon exactly 30pts currently? because, just to point something out here: Try doing the math of the lascannon vs MEQ and the HB vs Tank. I can't say somethings bad or good until I see points costs, but I'd bet that if you had a Lascannon that magically turned into 2 heavy bolters when you fired it at infantry, you'd probably pay a few points more for that than a regular lascannon.

The problem with that comparison is we don't have a baseline for what an ungunned russ would cost in 7th to tack on the price of the battle cannon. Hell, the Eradicator is the cheapest one, 30 points less than the LRBT, and in a lot of situations it's better than the standard BC.

IF what we suspect is true and small blasts are d3 shots, and we already know twinlinked is twice the shots, if units that have shread get some replacement for it, either keeping re rolls to wound, getting +1st or -1ap, then Wyverns will utterly outshine a Russ with 8d3 shots with whatever special rule replaces shread for them

The usual Guard whining ay? Well I will admit that I feel that the blasts are a little underwhelming. but I always imagined a Battle cannon as a regular tank cannon so the lack of a large explosion is fine with me, but it makes me wonder what anti-infantry attacks will do like Whirlwinds/Basilisks (see large area of effect) and what anti-heavy unit attacks would do like Demo-cannons

So I guess the niche is multiwound infantry or lighter vehicles/monsters ?

The perfect targets for a typical tank mounted cannon.

 Vulkan Fran'cis wrote:
The usual Guard whining ay? Well I will admit that I feel that the blasts are a little underwhelming. but I always imagined a Battle cannon as a regular tank cannon so the lack of a large explosion is fine with me, but it makes me wonder what anti-infantry attacks will do like Whirlwinds/Basilisks (see large area of effect) and what anti-heavy unit attacks would do like Demo-cannons

There was no whining when the 5th edition codex came out. In fact everybody was hyped up. I remember one guy wrote "this may be the time where Imperial Guard is at the top of its power during the past and future of 40k"

I am so sad I did not back this post up, this guy was a prophet. It was when I came into 40k and had no idea how bad IG had been and would become again.

If anybody complains that someone is whining about the weakness of a codex or a unit, I would recommend he creates a list with this codex/unit and proves the whining is wrong on the next big turnament in his area.





Automatically Appended Next Post:

Captyn_Bob wrote:
So I guess the niche is multiwound infantry or lighter vehicles/monsters ?

There really is no niche. Its as good or as bad vs almost everything. Its versatile, that is its advantage.

It all boils down to points/power level. A plain Russ with a battle cannon and a heavy bolter will probably kill 1.5 Space Marines per turn. One with a lascannon sponson will kill 0.13 leman russ tanks per turn.

So during a game lasting five turns you kill 7.5 space marines or 2/3 of an other Russ.

Note that a Land Raider will kill 2 russes during a game (it has about 3 times the fire power of a Russ, but I doubt its 3 times as tough)

When a space marine is worth 15 points and a land raider 200, a Russ should clock between 80 and 110 pts. Then its ok.

Captyn_Bob wrote:
So I guess the niche is multiwound infantry or lighter vehicles/monsters ?

Seems like it, and from what we've seen, 8th will feature a lot of heavier infantry getting a bump in number of wounds, so that is one factor we haven't considered here. The Heavy Bolter/Battlecannon vs MEQ may provide an artificially poor showing for the BC because the 1d3 wounds stat doesn't get to be factored in at all. For instance, the new BC causes 1.25 average wounds per shot against new terminators, outperforming the Lascannon (.55 repeating) and the Heavy Bolter (.166 repeating) significantly. We can't really compare its effectiveness vs specialized anti-TEQ weaponry like plasma and grav because critically we don't know what their wounds stats will look like (I'd bet a nickel it'll be 1D3 with plasma and 1 with Grav, and that'll be the grav nerf for 8th, leaving it as-is while # of average wounds goes up). But if this trend is similar to what we see, I'm going to say that anti-teq specialist weaponry will be not quite as good as a BC vs tanks, and better than the BC vs TEQ.

Really, the only thing the BC is going to be significantly bad at is fighting light infantry, because two of its stats (wounds and S) are likely to be wasted.

We don't know if you can split fire with your leman russ weapons. So, if you can, it might be a good idea to take all the stuff you can get. Lazcannon, heavy bolters, battlecannon, heavy stubber...The chasis is resilient enough to be a good weapon platform. And now there are no shakes, stuns and almost no one-shots.

 koooaei wrote:
We don't know if you can split fire with your leman russ weapons. So, if you can, it might be a good idea to take all the stuff you can get. Lazcannon, heavy bolters, battlecannon, heavy stubber...The chasis is resilient enough to be a good weapon platform. And now there are no shakes, stuns and almost no one-shots.

You can. And the battle cannon is now quite good vs Terminators, something where it did not shine before...

here are the new values, now including the ballistic skill

vs Terminators --------------------------
BS 4+, S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 4, W 2, Sv 2+: average damage per turn 0.87, average turns to death 2.30, average kills per turn 0.43
BS 4+, S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 3, D 1 vs. T 4, W 2, Sv 2+: average damage per turn 0.33, average turns to death 5.99, average kills per turn 0.17
BS 4+, S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 4, W 2, Sv 2+: average damage per turn 0.48, average turns to death 4.20, average kills per turn 0.24

vs Leman Russ --------------------------
BS 4+, S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.85, average turns to death 14.10, average kills per turn 0.07
BS 4+, S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.84, average turns to death 14.34, average kills per turn 0.07
BS 4+, S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.77, average turns to death 15.60, average kills per turn 0.06
BS 4+, S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 3, D 1 vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.13, average turns to death 95.82, average kills per turn 0.01
BS 4+, S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D 2D6 MAX vs. T 8, W 12, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.96, average turns to death 12.53, average kills per turn 0.08

vs Space Marine --------------------------
BS 4+, S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.35, average turns to death 2.88, average kills per turn 0.35
BS 4+, S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.81, average turns to death 1.23, average kills per turn 0.81
BS 4+, S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.42, average turns to death 2.40, average kills per turn 0.42
BS 4+, S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 3, D 1 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.50, average turns to death 2.00, average kills per turn 0.50
BS 4+, S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 6, D 1 vs. T 4, W 1, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 1.00, average turns to death 1.00, average kills per turn 1.00

 Purifier wrote:

Halfpast_Yellow wrote:

 Inquisitor Lord Katherine wrote:
I

Spoiler:

just ran 100,000 trials of a Leman Russ Battle Cannon attack against a target with a toughness between 5 and 7 and a save of 3+.

The results are not encouraging.

By percentage, the wounds distribution is as follows:

As you can see, 45% of the time, the tank fails to achieve anything at all. When it does manage to achieve something, it scores between 1 and 3 wounds.

Finally someone models this in a decent way. That mathhammer site is awful.

I disagree with your assessment, those results look very acceptable to me. 54% of the time we're doing some damage, ~28% of the time we're doing 3 or more wounds.

That doesn't sound horrible. It wouldn't be reasonable to expect one single battle cannon to regularly take out a high priority target alone every round.

Should we not use a comparison to determine the effectiveness of the weapon?
How does the BC line up to a LC when shot at a dread? How about a melta gun?
When shot at infantry, how does the BC compare to a HB when shot at MEQ?
Without a comparison we don't know how effective the gun is.

tneva82 wrote:

 mrhappyface wrote:

 master of ordinance wrote:
losing firepower on the main gun is a big thing.

Your main gun is now a big monster/tank/small elite units hunter, that is not a loss of fire power it's a change of target priority. If you want to blast infantry again I am sure the punisher will step up and do remember this is the base Russ model i.e. the cheapest, so the gun shouldn't be able to auto kill everything.

Too bad all those roles are better done by other russ variants...You want elite unit killer that does nicely against monsters? Exterminator. Or you want to bust big models? Vanquisher.

You're missing the point, this is the base cheapest variance: why would it be better than variants you have to pay more for?
Also we don't know what the other weapon profiles are so why do you assume they are all better?

 labmouse42 wrote:

Should we not use a comparison to determine the effectiveness of the weapon?
How does the BC line up to a LC when shot at a dread? How about a melta gun?
When shot at infantry, how does the BC compare to a HB when shot at MEQ?
Without a comparison we don't know how effective the gun is.

That's vs Dreadnaught:

BS 4+, S 9, AP -3, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 8, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.80, average turns to death 9.98, average kills per turn 0.10
BS 4+, S 8, AP -2, SHOTS D6, D D3 vs. T 8, W 8, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.82, average turns to death 9.77, average kills per turn 0.10
BS 4+, S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D D6 vs. T 8, W 8, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.72, average turns to death 11.11, average kills per turn 0.09
BS 4+, S 5, AP -1, SHOTS 3, D 1 vs. T 8, W 8, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.13, average turns to death 63.89, average kills per turn 0.02
BS 4+, S 8, AP -4, SHOTS 1, D 2D6 MAX vs. T 8, W 8, Sv 3+: average damage per turn 0.89, average turns to death 8.96, average kills per turn 0.11

I already did it vs Russ and MEQ and Terminators in the post right before yours. (note D 2D6 MAX means maxium of two D6 rolls, that is a melta at short range)

vs. Vehicles: Melta Short > Lascannon = Battle Cannon > Melta Long >>>> Heavy Bolter (Heavy Bolters suck vs vehicles)
vs. MEQ: Battle Cannon > Heavy Bolter > Melta Short = Melta Long > Lascannon (Battle Cannon not much better than a heavy bolter)

There's also the distinct possibility that tank orders will make this better. Which is a little horrifying for terminator squads.

 docdoom77 wrote:
Since it keeps coming up:

Or it means one Hive Tyrant or vehicle can have a very bad, bad time.

Martel732 wrote:
There's also the distinct possibility that tank orders will make this better. Which is a little horrifying for terminator squads.

While I think Battle Cannons are too weak vs basic infantry they seem to be too strong vs Terminators. (On the other hand killing 2 Terminators during the course of a game does not seem to be extreme.)