Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
feeder wrote: Turns out every person killed by the missile was in fact a traitor to the DRPK! Dear Leader wanted this to happen, to punish those who would even think ill of Best Korea. All praise Dear Leader, he who makes the sun rise and gets 18 holes in one!
North Korea managed to missile it self. Well that's a turn up for the books. Missiles fail from time to time. There weapons a are pretty experimental.
I guess thr missile designer has come to a bad end. Or the engineers.
I don't think so. Those people are probably too valuable to simply off because of a mistake. Better to simply cover the whole thing up or blame it on the CIA.
Probbly be only time Kim showed mercy, he is hardly a forgiving figure.
His track record with own family and other senior officials is bloody and he even killed his own brother, and they caught potential assasins in China after another reletive during a security sweep for some big event.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
After the LDP's crushing victory in Oct. 2017's well timed snap elections, Abe is confident in accelerating the long promised revision of the Japanese constitution.
ISE, Mie Prefecture--Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Jan. 4 indicated that his New Year’s resolution is to take the next big step toward revising the Constitution.
The prime minister said he will instruct the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to present draft revisions to the Diet this year.
“The Constitution represents the way this nation should be and its ideal state,” Abe said at his first news conference of 2018 after visiting Ise Jingu shrine here. “It is time to fully present to the public a Constitution that serves as a hope for new times and to deepen public debate toward constitutional revision.”
He said that “popular sovereignty, protection of basic human rights and pacifism will remain the basic principles” in the draft of the revised Constitution.
But he stressed that it is only natural to hold talks on how Japan should be in response to the changing times.
Japan’s pacifist Constitution went into force in 1947 and has never been amended. Changes to the Constitution must be approved by two-thirds of members of both Diet houses and a majority in a national referendum.
Abe did not specify when he would file a motion for a vote in the Diet or when he wanted to hold a national referendum.
“I would like to leave all related matters to the LDP,” he said.
He also avoided giving a clear-cut answer on whether he will seek a third term as LDP president, when his current term expires in September.
“I am ready to focus my attention on the ordinary Diet session to generate results,” he said, referring to the session that starts later this month. “I will think about what I should do after that.”
I don't think so. Those people are probably too valuable to simply off because of a mistake. Better to simply cover the whole thing up or blame it on the CIA.
Taking a page from Russia's last missile mistake then? 'The missile spontaneously launched and hit the wrong target. No one was injured.'
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
I don't think so. Those people are probably too valuable to simply off because of a mistake. Better to simply cover the whole thing up or blame it on the CIA.
Taking a page from Russia's last missile mistake then? 'The missile spontaneously launched and hit the wrong target. No one was injured.'
To be honest I don't know what incident you are referring to. But all missiles fail every now and then. Even reliable designs (well, relatively reliable, missiles are never very reliable) can fail. Like this one:
But yeah. Covering it up is a good idea. Having missile failures reflects badly on your military, and a military can't really afford to appear weak. So military accidents are often covered up or ignored as much as possible.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/01/08 16:03:06
whembly wrote: So... with the latest missile developments that is almost an ICBM, that can theoretically now reach Alaska and Hawaii...
Now what?
Keep in mind, that we're technically still at war... only that it's "on pause" now. So no formal agreement from UN or US Congress is needed to re-engage. (egads!!!)
There are no good options... is... letting NK become fully nuclearized (sp?) the best option?
Seems to me, is that if we want to force China/RU to de-nuclearize NK... maybe the best card on the table for the US is to threaten support for Japan (or, more provocatively Taiwan) to build their own ICBM nukes?
Acquiescence the South China Sea to China in return for their help to de-nuclearize NK?
Re-engaging hostilities at the 38th parallel just seems too knarly.
I'm sure this has been said to death.
But any action against the DPRK will result in death, pain and destruction for South Korean citizens. I doubt much will really happen to anyone else. It's the worst situation to be in, and there is no easy solution. We should have finished the job in 53.
whembly wrote: So... with the latest missile developments that is almost an ICBM, that can theoretically now reach Alaska and Hawaii...
Now what?
Keep in mind, that we're technically still at war... only that it's "on pause" now. So no formal agreement from UN or US Congress is needed to re-engage. (egads!!!)
There are no good options... is... letting NK become fully nuclearized (sp?) the best option?
Seems to me, is that if we want to force China/RU to de-nuclearize NK... maybe the best card on the table for the US is to threaten support for Japan (or, more provocatively Taiwan) to build their own ICBM nukes?
Acquiescence the South China Sea to China in return for their help to de-nuclearize NK?
Re-engaging hostilities at the 38th parallel just seems too knarly.
I'm sure this has been said to death.
But any action against the DPRK will result in death, pain and destruction for South Korean citizens. I doubt much will really happen to anyone else. It's the worst situation to be in, and there is no easy solution. We should have finished the job in 53.
More support for Japan actually plays into Chinas hands. It pisses off US SE Asian regional allies and acts to destabilise. NK gets a free propaganda card for the masses.
Pushing the Taiwan angle does the same, only its the Taiwainese population who then worry that a 'puppeted leadership allied to the US threatens their safety'.
djones520 wrote: Talks that the two nations may march together at the Olympics. That would be nice to see.
Aye. But it seems Kim Jong Un is still rather confrentainal.
This might be a nice gesture but if it sticks is another matter.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
“I think President Trump deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks, and I want to show my gratitude,” he told reporters in Seoul. “It could be the result of US-led sanctions and pressure.”
Perhaps praising Trump is a way of tying the famously narcissistic president to the talks, give him credit so he has a vested interest to see them succeed. Maybe the rhetoric does work? Regardless Moon Jae-In himself has made several in-roads into getting the talks to this point and should be credited for his domestic and international handling of the situation.
“This initial round of talks is for the improvement of relations between North and South Korea,” [PM Moon Jae-In] said. “Our task going forward is to draw North Korea to talks aimed at the denuclearisation of the North. That is our basic stance, and that will never be given up.”
Another thing to take away is the initial talks are not about denuclearisation, something the Trump admin has been very adamant that be the topic of discussion. Tillerson suggesting that the initial talks not be focused on the nuclear issue is what got him in the dog house with Trump. Despite the aggressive rhetoric coming out of Trump's twitter account, which Western media fixates on for domestic reasons, it's clear the Trump admin is actually flexible on it's stated positions.
Take aways:
-North Koreans thrown a bone or two
-South Koreans taking the lead
-Chinese buy in with the Four Principles for Peace and Security -Flexible US policy playing a partner role
The conditions for denuclearisation are there.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2018/01/10 17:26:37
I am shocked to here that De-nuclearization is a Trump policy. On the campaign trail, he talked about the opposite. He was a proponent of proliferation.
Support Blood and Spectacles Publishing:
https://www.patreon.com/Bloodandspectaclespublishing
Easy E wrote: I am shocked to here that De-nuclearization is a Trump policy. On the campaign trail, he talked about the opposite. He was a proponent of proliferation.
Denuclearisation of the peninsula has been the policy goal for South Korea, the PRC and the US from the beginning. Idk what your point is besides that Trump made wild and outlandish campaign statements. I can find crazy quotes too:
Donald Trump, May 1st, 2016 wrote:"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing"
But that's clearly not how Trump interacts with the Chinese. Debate on the viability of denuclearisation has been ongoing in the US gov't with various officials weighing in publicly one way or another, but the policy of a nuke free Korean peninsula has been the official US policy since Bush the Elder pulled them out in accordance with the '92 Joint Agreement.
It's also worth mentioning the renegotiation of the South Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) is in process. A deal that Trump likes to threaten to walk away from but in practice is more interested in renegotiating. Part of praising Trump may be to influence those negotiations. The US unsurprisingly is pushing for small tweaks which can be packaged as "wins" rather than fundamentally altering the free trade agreement between both countries:
The Hankyoreh wrote:Automobiles and automobile parts are already duty-free areas. Sources reported that the US focused its demands on the abolition of “non-tariff barriers” to imports of US automobiles, including safety regulations by South Korean authorities and environmental regulations on emissions. The current FTA sets quotas allows imports of up to 25,000 vehicles per business even when the automobiles do not meet South Korean safety standards as long as they meet the US’s. The US hopes to eliminate or raise the quota.
In terms of place-of-origin regulations subject to preferential tariffs, the US reported made the sensitive demand to procure parts from a specific country – namely the US – for use at Hyundai-Kia’s factories in Ulsan and in the US. It also proposed tougher place-of-origin standards on steel items, ostensibly to prevent cheap Chinese steel from being exported indirectly to the US through South Korea.
Analysts said the US’s focus on specific items and “implementation” of the current FTA rather than amendment of its terms suggests a conclusion that its best strategy is to achieve reductions in trade imbalances.
“The increase in the US’s trade deficit is less about the FTA per se than differences in the two countries’ microeconomic and macroeconomic environments, including their economic growth rates and industry structures,” said one South Korean trade official. Indeed, the US appears to view it as more beneficial to tweak place-of-origin regulations and non-tariff barriers in the large-deficit items of automobiles and steel than to alter the current phased tariff abolition or reduction schedule.
The fact that South Korea’s trade surplus with the US dropped sharply from US$23.2 billion in 2016 to US$17.9 billion last year without any changes to the amendment was cited as a factor in the US’s adoption of a strategy focused on practical gains in specific areas.
With US President Donald Trump adhering to an “America first” position, South Korean trade authorities have accepted a reduction in the trade surplus with the US as inevitable during his term, and are focusing more on addressing trade issues such as US import regulations affecting South Korean steel, washing machines, and solar panels. The Office of the Minister for Trade announced shortly after the first round of negotiations that the South Korean side has “raised the investor-state dispute system and trade remedies as areas of interest.”
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2018/01/10 20:41:31
The guy is a seasoned diplomat. Not only does it seem plausible, but I would go as far as to say the most plausible explanation is that he's tossing out praise of Trump to get on his good side. It costs him next to nothing to make a statement like that but it can have a dramatic impact on how the US acts via the President. Trump is well known for his narcissism and it's incredibly easy to manipulate him on that front so I don't see any reason why SK wouldn't be interested in doing so. Doubly so because Trump is liable to change positions in a heartbeat if he gets angry at something/someone, so it pays to be on his good side.
But President Moon Jae-In isn't a seasoned diplomat he was former President's Roh Moo-hyun's chief of staff until his suicide but otherwise has been a legislative politician.
Moon was elected 8 months ago in a highly contentious election, that's what makes his apparent regional foreign policy savviness impressive.
I understand it's hard for Americans to process news that's not screenshots of Trump's twitter account. But like the saying goes actions speak louder than words. When the rhetoric says one thing and the actions say another, like public statements from the White House supporting a strike on North Korea then quietly cancelling joint war games targeting North Korea a month later. Something is happening behind the curtain. The fact the US is looking like the junior partner in initiating the talks and has accommodated South Korean requests are good things.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2018/01/10 21:46:31
You're right, 'seasoned diplomat' was an inaccurate term to use. Still, he is obviously a man who knows what he's doing. Then I suppose in his position he'd have to be.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
While its true what you say, this administration might not be the best for the North Koreans to depend on. Personally even if the conditions for denuclearisation are there, which I believe aren't there, I would not take that step with one of the most publically hostile administrations. Yeah NK does it too, but the direct insight into Trump's mind when he tweets things like that should make anyone reluctant to make a deal. What would be the guarentee?
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
While its true what you say, this administration might not be the best for the North Koreans to depend on. Personally even if the conditions for denuclearisation are there, which I believe aren't there, I would not take that step with one of the most publically hostile administrations. Yeah NK does it too, but the direct insight into Trump's mind when he tweets things like that should make anyone reluctant to make a deal. What would be the guarentee?
Oddly enough, I actually think that that is the reason we have made significantly more progress in the last year regarding North Korea than we have in the last 20.
North Korea has to this point been blessed with a string of US presidents who were really passive on the whole issue, and were predictable in how they'd react. Bluster against North Korean provocation and then back down to a compromise. Trump wasn't doing any of that. His unpredictability and short temper have, for once, put North Korea on the backfoot. North Korea was and is faced with a US which might actually decide to give them a spanking, unlike the last 50 years where it's been tense but relatively safe for North Korea to keep poking the proverbial bear.
North Korea might have realized that they can't simply keep poking the US to get some concessions and foreign aid because instead they might actually get total annihilation.
In some ways, being unpredictable can be a good thing. It actually forces your opponents to concede more than they might otherwise have done.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/01/11 17:38:36
Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
While its true what you say, this administration might not be the best for the North Koreans to depend on. Personally even if the conditions for denuclearisation are there, which I believe aren't there, I would not take that step with one of the most publically hostile administrations. Yeah NK does it too, but the direct insight into Trump's mind when he tweets things like that should make anyone reluctant to make a deal. What would be the guarentee?
Oddly enough, I actually think that that is the reason we have made significantly more progress in the last year regarding North Korea than we have in the last 20.
North Korea has to this point been blessed with a string of US presidents who were really passive on the whole issue, and were predictable in how they'd react. Bluster against North Korean provocation and then back down to a compromise. Trump wasn't doing any of that. His unpredictability and short temper have, for once, put North Korea on the backfoot. North Korea was and is faced with a US which might actually decide to give them a spanking, unlike the last 50 years where it's been tense but relatively safe for North Korea to keep poking the proverbial bear.
North Korea might have realized that they can't simply keep poking the US to get some concessions and foreign aid because instead they might actually get total annihilation.
In some ways, being unpredictable can be a good thing. It actually forces your opponents to concede more than they might otherwise have done.
While this line of thinking is all fine and well, what have the North Koreans actually conceded? What progress has been made?
So far they have pushed through their nuclear program as fast as possible, or even faster because of US rhetoric. Meanwhile President Moon was elected on a more diplomatic approach towards NK, so that meant the goals of SK and the US were running counter for the greater part of the Trump administration so far.
The threat of war/downfall always existed in the minds of NK ever since the beginning of the end of communism in a great many countries. Especially the Bush Jr. admin with the axis of evil talk, the spreading/imposing of democracy that was going on by force and calling it a rogue state made NK even more nervous. That is exactly when they incredibly sped up nuclear research and conducted their first nuclear weapons test during the Bush presidency. So what Trump is doing really isn't that different, the only element he has injected is some ridiculous public personal feud.
So North Korea has been faced with a tense presidency 2/3 times in the 21st century. Also the total annihilation thing shows exactly why this is an incredibly stupid move, as you assume the Trump admin is willing to let tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilians in allied countries die just so he doesn't have to look weak with some food aid or other minor concessions? Its not like were talking about handing NK the keys to the world. Its not going to stop nuclear development either, as this total annihilation rhetoric is the absolute perfect example of why they need nuclear weapons.
So why would you make a deal to hand over your only serious leverage with a President who promised total annihilation and war on multiple occasions. Nuclear NK was inevitable, getting into a screaming match with them was never going to bring any progress to a country that already had an irrational fear of being invaded before Trump.
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
It also doesn't help that the record on treatment of aspiring nuclear regimes by the large powers after they give up the effort is...not great.
Gaddafi have up his WMD programs...and ended up dead less than a decade later. Ukraine gave up its former USSR nukes to Russia...and now has lost its easternmost towns and Crimea. Saddam had his programs destroyed and then shut down most of them and still ended up dead because of them. Iran agreed to a deal and the next US president to rotate in has done nothing but talk about how that deal is bad and needs to be rescinded.
If I were Kim Jong Un, I'd be pushing those nukes as fast as possible too. The track record for those that play ball is...not good.
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
Do remember that during those 50 years they had USSR nukes to protect them.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
Do remember that during those 50 years they had USSR nukes to protect them.
And had a more genuine alliance with China. Who now protect them bit not as genuine allience. They are even backing sanctions against Kim and his regime.
The two are no longer exactly freinds and close allies.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
While its true what you say, this administration might not be the best for the North Koreans to depend on. Personally even if the conditions for denuclearisation are there, which I believe aren't there, I would not take that step with one of the most publically hostile administrations. Yeah NK does it too, but the direct insight into Trump's mind when he tweets things like that should make anyone reluctant to make a deal. What would be the guarentee?
Oddly enough, I actually think that that is the reason we have made significantly more progress in the last year regarding North Korea than we have in the last 20.
North Korea has to this point been blessed with a string of US presidents who were really passive on the whole issue, and were predictable in how they'd react. Bluster against North Korean provocation and then back down to a compromise. Trump wasn't doing any of that. His unpredictability and short temper have, for once, put North Korea on the backfoot. North Korea was and is faced with a US which might actually decide to give them a spanking, unlike the last 50 years where it's been tense but relatively safe for North Korea to keep poking the proverbial bear.
North Korea might have realized that they can't simply keep poking the US to get some concessions and foreign aid because instead they might actually get total annihilation.
In some ways, being unpredictable can be a good thing. It actually forces your opponents to concede more than they might otherwise have done.
While this line of thinking is all fine and well, what have the North Koreans actually conceded? What progress has been made?
So far they have pushed through their nuclear program as fast as possible, or even faster because of US rhetoric. Meanwhile President Moon was elected on a more diplomatic approach towards NK, so that meant the goals of SK and the US were running counter for the greater part of the Trump administration so far.
The threat of war/downfall always existed in the minds of NK ever since the beginning of the end of communism in a great many countries. Especially the Bush Jr. admin with the axis of evil talk, the spreading/imposing of democracy that was going on by force and calling it a rogue state made NK even more nervous. That is exactly when they incredibly sped up nuclear research and conducted their first nuclear weapons test during the Bush presidency. So what Trump is doing really isn't that different, the only element he has injected is some ridiculous public personal feud.
The sudden advances North Korea made in its nuclear weapons program are not entirely linked to US policy though. North Korea has been preparing for war with the US and pursuing nuclear weapons for a long time already, even under the more benign US administrations, but it was never very successful. The most recent developments are linked to developments in the war in Ukraine, which has allowed North Korea to finally build a (somewhat) reliable delivery system. That made nuclear weapons something that North Korea could actually use to really hurt the US in case of war, turning nukes from a theoretical possibility into NK's most promising weapon. I can imagine that the development of ICBMs is what drove North Korea's recent development of heavier nukes more than anything.
Oddly enough, I actually think that that is the reason we have made significantly more progress in the last year regarding North Korea than we have in the last 20.
North Korea has to this point been blessed with a string of US presidents who were really passive on the whole issue, and were predictable in how they'd react. Bluster against North Korean provocation and then back down to a compromise. Trump wasn't doing any of that. His unpredictability and short temper have, for once, put North Korea on the backfoot. North Korea was and is faced with a US which might actually decide to give them a spanking, unlike the last 50 years where it's been tense but relatively safe for North Korea to keep poking the proverbial bear.
North Korea might have realized that they can't simply keep poking the US to get some concessions and foreign aid because instead they might actually get total annihilation.
In some ways, being unpredictable can be a good thing. It actually forces your opponents to concede more than they might otherwise have done.
While this line of thinking is all fine and well, what have the North Koreans actually conceded? What progress has been made?
So far they have pushed through their nuclear program as fast as possible, or even faster because of US rhetoric. Meanwhile President Moon was elected on a more diplomatic approach towards NK, so that meant the goals of SK and the US were running counter for the greater part of the Trump administration so far.
The threat of war/downfall always existed in the minds of NK ever since the beginning of the end of communism in a great many countries. Especially the Bush Jr. admin with the axis of evil talk, the spreading/imposing of democracy that was going on by force and calling it a rogue state made NK even more nervous. That is exactly when they incredibly sped up nuclear research and conducted their first nuclear weapons test during the Bush presidency. So what Trump is doing really isn't that different, the only element he has injected is some ridiculous public personal feud.
The sudden advances North Korea made in its nuclear weapons program are not entirely linked to US policy though. North Korea has been preparing for war with the US and pursuing nuclear weapons for a long time already, even under the more benign US administrations, but it was never very successful. The most recent developments are linked to developments in the war in Ukraine, which has allowed North Korea to finally build a (somewhat) reliable delivery system. That made nuclear weapons something that North Korea could actually use to really hurt the US in case of war, turning nukes from a theoretical possibility into NK's most promising weapon. I can imagine that the development of ICBMs is what drove North Korea's recent development of heavier nukes more than anything.
Oh no I didn't mean to imply that they are linked to US policy. I'm just saying all the belligerent rhetoric likely pushed North Korea to accelerate certain aspects such as possibly testing. They would have gotten there eventually, but the Bush and Trump presidency have given them additional motivation to develop it fast.
As for heavier nukes being a consequence of ICBM tech. Its hard to say, its the chicken and the egg problem. Heavier nukes might have already been usable on short range missiles to an extent, but we don't know how far along with miniaturization the NK are/were. Furthermore Ukraine kicked off in 2014, but North Korea already detonated a relatively heavy device in 2013 (which was roughly in line with the one in early 2016). So its likely that building 'heavy' nukes wasn't so much the issue for North Korea, it was the delivery mechanism/miniaturization. But from earlier tests it seems that heavy nuclear weapons were already mostly developed before getting long range ICBMs, not the other way around.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2018/01/13 00:04:29
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
While its true what you say, this administration might not be the best for the North Koreans to depend on. Personally even if the conditions for denuclearisation are there, which I believe aren't there, I would not take that step with one of the most publically hostile administrations. Yeah NK does it too, but the direct insight into Trump's mind when he tweets things like that should make anyone reluctant to make a deal. What would be the guarentee?
Oddly enough, I actually think that that is the reason we have made significantly more progress in the last year regarding North Korea than we have in the last 20.
North Korea has to this point been blessed with a string of US presidents who were really passive on the whole issue, and were predictable in how they'd react. Bluster against North Korean provocation and then back down to a compromise. Trump wasn't doing any of that. His unpredictability and short temper have, for once, put North Korea on the backfoot. North Korea was and is faced with a US which might actually decide to give them a spanking, unlike the last 50 years where it's been tense but relatively safe for North Korea to keep poking the proverbial bear.
North Korea might have realized that they can't simply keep poking the US to get some concessions and foreign aid because instead they might actually get total annihilation.
In some ways, being unpredictable can be a good thing. It actually forces your opponents to concede more than they might otherwise have done.
While this line of thinking is all fine and well, what have the North Koreans actually conceded? What progress has been made?
So far they have pushed through their nuclear program as fast as possible, or even faster because of US rhetoric. Meanwhile President Moon was elected on a more diplomatic approach towards NK, so that meant the goals of SK and the US were running counter for the greater part of the Trump administration so far.
The threat of war/downfall always existed in the minds of NK ever since the beginning of the end of communism in a great many countries. Especially the Bush Jr. admin with the axis of evil talk, the spreading/imposing of democracy that was going on by force and calling it a rogue state made NK even more nervous. That is exactly when they incredibly sped up nuclear research and conducted their first nuclear weapons test during the Bush presidency. So what Trump is doing really isn't that different, the only element he has injected is some ridiculous public personal feud.
The sudden advances North Korea made in its nuclear weapons program are not entirely linked to US policy though. North Korea has been preparing for war with the US and pursuing nuclear weapons for a long time already, even under the more benign US administrations, but it was never very successful. The most recent developments are linked to developments in the war in Ukraine, which has allowed North Korea to finally build a (somewhat) reliable delivery system. That made nuclear weapons something that North Korea could actually use to really hurt the US in case of war, turning nukes from a theoretical possibility into NK's most promising weapon. I can imagine that the development of ICBMs is what drove North Korea's recent development of heavier nukes more than anything.
Oh no I didn't mean to imply that they are linked to US policy. I'm just saying all the belligerent rhetoric likely pushed North Korea to accelerate certain aspects such as possibly testing. They would have gotten there eventually, but the Bush and Trump presidency have given them additional motivation to develop it fast.
As for heavier nukes being a consequence of ICBM tech. Its hard to say, its the chicken and the egg problem. Heavier nukes might have already been usable on short range missiles to an extent, but we don't know how far along with miniaturization the NK are/were. Furthermore Ukraine kicked off in 2014, but North Korea already detonated a relatively heavy device in 2013 (which was roughly in line with the one in early 2016). So its likely that building 'heavy' nukes wasn't so much the issue for North Korea, it was the delivery mechanism/miniaturization. But from earlier tests it seems that heavy nuclear weapons were already mostly developed before getting long range ICBMs, not the other way around.
Yeah, you may be right. I had forgotten about that 2013 test, it seems to have been almost as big as the ones in 2016.
Apart that without NK having weapons to hit US it's basically just matter of time before US comes down hard. All it takes is SK/US alliance end(and nothing lasts forever) and US has little reason to not repeat Iraq there.
It's a matter of time? There was 50 years prior to nuclear weapons, where North Korea conducted significantly more provacative acts then they've done recently, and we didn't "come down hard".
That's a war no one wants, and nukes has nothing to do with it.
While its true what you say, this administration might not be the best for the North Koreans to depend on. Personally even if the conditions for denuclearisation are there, which I believe aren't there, I would not take that step with one of the most publically hostile administrations. Yeah NK does it too, but the direct insight into Trump's mind when he tweets things like that should make anyone reluctant to make a deal. What would be the guarentee?
Oddly enough, I actually think that that is the reason we have made significantly more progress in the last year regarding North Korea than we have in the last 20.
North Korea has to this point been blessed with a string of US presidents who were really passive on the whole issue, and were predictable in how they'd react. Bluster against North Korean provocation and then back down to a compromise. Trump wasn't doing any of that. His unpredictability and short temper have, for once, put North Korea on the backfoot. North Korea was and is faced with a US which might actually decide to give them a spanking, unlike the last 50 years where it's been tense but relatively safe for North Korea to keep poking the proverbial bear.
North Korea might have realized that they can't simply keep poking the US to get some concessions and foreign aid because instead they might actually get total annihilation.
In some ways, being unpredictable can be a good thing. It actually forces your opponents to concede more than they might otherwise have done.
While this line of thinking is all fine and well, what have the North Koreans actually conceded? What progress has been made?
So far they have pushed through their nuclear program as fast as possible, or even faster because of US rhetoric. Meanwhile President Moon was elected on a more diplomatic approach towards NK, so that meant the goals of SK and the US were running counter for the greater part of the Trump administration so far.
The threat of war/downfall always existed in the minds of NK ever since the beginning of the end of communism in a great many countries. Especially the Bush Jr. admin with the axis of evil talk, the spreading/imposing of democracy that was going on by force and calling it a rogue state made NK even more nervous. That is exactly when they incredibly sped up nuclear research and conducted their first nuclear weapons test during the Bush presidency. So what Trump is doing really isn't that different, the only element he has injected is some ridiculous public personal feud.
The sudden advances North Korea made in its nuclear weapons program are not entirely linked to US policy though. North Korea has been preparing for war with the US and pursuing nuclear weapons for a long time already, even under the more benign US administrations, but it was never very successful. The most recent developments are linked to developments in the war in Ukraine, which has allowed North Korea to finally build a (somewhat) reliable delivery system. That made nuclear weapons something that North Korea could actually use to really hurt the US in case of war, turning nukes from a theoretical possibility into NK's most promising weapon. I can imagine that the development of ICBMs is what drove North Korea's recent development of heavier nukes more than anything.
Oh no I didn't mean to imply that they are linked to US policy. I'm just saying all the belligerent rhetoric likely pushed North Korea to accelerate certain aspects such as possibly testing. They would have gotten there eventually, but the Bush and Trump presidency have given them additional motivation to develop it fast.
As for heavier nukes being a consequence of ICBM tech. Its hard to say, its the chicken and the egg problem. Heavier nukes might have already been usable on short range missiles to an extent, but we don't know how far along with miniaturization the NK are/were. Furthermore Ukraine kicked off in 2014, but North Korea already detonated a relatively heavy device in 2013 (which was roughly in line with the one in early 2016). So its likely that building 'heavy' nukes wasn't so much the issue for North Korea, it was the delivery mechanism/miniaturization. But from earlier tests it seems that heavy nuclear weapons were already mostly developed before getting long range ICBMs, not the other way around.
Yeah, you may be right. I had forgotten about that 2013 test, it seems to have been almost as big as the ones in 2016.
If they test any more nukes the test site is at risk of collapse and releasing radiation and radioactive materials from the previous testing.
Its been rendered unstable to some sources, collapses. Higher seismic readings and quakes. Signs of aras that have collapsed or slid.
The previous one collapsed other test tunnels a crossing to reports. One came down on miners.
Major radiation issues. Deformed babies. Dying trees, dry Wells in the region. People sick from unknown ailments.
It does not sound very good there. The mountain may have already have lost containment already once.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
Cut it out with the siege towers of quotes guys, please, next comment you keep on the chain reaches the two digits already and it is horrible to load up on a mobile phone with little data at this point.
Long as not image threads etx.
And seige towers of quotes is certainly a new description of them.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
Lord Kragan wrote: Cut it out with the siege towers of quotes guys, please, next comment you keep on the chain reaches the two digits already and it is horrible to load up on a mobile phone with little data at this point.
I cut it down a bit. But DakkaDakka being so unwieldy on a mobile is exactly why I avoid cutting down the pyramid, as its an absolute chore to fix quotes when cutting.
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Lord Kragan wrote: Cut it out with the siege towers of quotes guys, please, next comment you keep on the chain reaches the two digits already and it is horrible to load up on a mobile phone with little data at this point
Quotes for the quote god! More posts for his throne!
1750 pts Blood Specters
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
