Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Martel732 wrote:
There's two tiers here. Some concede only that orders need to be removed. I'm more concerned with 50 3pt models that are immune to psychology.

Most offered solutions involve unrealistic scenarios, incorrect math, or hardcore tailoring or a combination thereof. This is the exact same thing eldar players tried in 7th, despite all data and math to the contrary.

So what are we supposed to do? I've conceded we are OP this edition. So have others. We didn't write the friggin book, dude.

I've been wanting to run an all infantry list literally for years now. A list that last edition was a total turd (most IG lists were, honestly.) I was planning to run 100 conscripts, 40 of which I have painted. I can't use them as regulars because I paint them differently. I don't play tourneys, and I don't want to be a DB so now I don't even know if I should run ANY of them. I really want to play on a level playing field. I wish they would fix it tomorrow. Heck, I'd house rule some things to make it more fair. Trouble is, the only acceptable solution for many of you is making us last editions IG, i.e. target practice.

You ruin efficient by requiring more orders if you reduce conscripts to max size 20 squads.

This means you need 3 orders to give conscripts frfsrf or get back in the fight on 50-60 conscripts. Odds are they won't have enough orders to do this. So it will limit conscripts better then simply making them 4ppm.

I also think plasmagun and plasma pistols should be nerfed to str6 overcharged str7 but this needs to be done across the board for most of the imperium.

 Smotejob wrote:
(rhinos are actually still pretty good my friends)

To build on this: Each lascannon the Guard uses on a Rhino has just over a 27% chance to cause on average 3-4 damage. You need 3-4 lascannons to reliably deal one unsaved wound to a Rhino, and thee times this amount to reliably kill it in one turn. That's around 288 points of heavy weapons teams with 12 lascannons firing at the rhino in a single round to kill it. Having this many additional squads means they will go second, and you can prevent them from doing as much damage to you by killing the very fragile squads. This is about four times the rhino's cost, btw.

On a turn the Rhino pops smoke, this becomes an 18.5% chance to cause on average 3-4 damage. You need 5-6 lascannons per smoke-popping rhino in order to reliably cause an unsaved wound, and in order to destroy one, you need three times this amount to reliably kill it in one turn. That's 360 points of heavy weapons teams with 15 lascannons firing at the rhino in a single round to kill it. Again, you'll probably go first and kill the squads quite easily, being T3, with 3 2-wound models that have a 5+ save and NEED to have line of sight to your vehicles to shoot to begin with. This is about five times the rhino's cost, btw.

So what about vehicles you ask? Okay. A Leman Russ Battle Tank with a Tank Commander and hull lascannon is 209 points; with 3.5 battlecannon shots per turn and 1 lascannon shot per turn. Assuming they're undamaged, they hit on 3+, smoke reduces this to 4+. If they give themselves an order to reroll 1s (which I'm not even sure is possible? but let's humor the idea), they get two battle cannon hits, of which about one and a third wound, and on average less than one is unsaved (0.907 unsaved wounds on average, dealing 1d3 damage). And the lascannon isn't much better (0.729 unsaved wounds on average, dealing 1d6 damage).

So assuming these are rounded up to one (you mathematical sinner), you'd need two of these to take down a rhino that popped smoke in one turn. That's 418 points to take down a single 70-74 point rhino, or about six times the Rhino's cost.

Seriously, Rhinos are fuckin' tough as nails. You could do a lot worse in your dealing with IG by making good use of your vehicles.

Also, I'm disappointed that the complaints about conscripts are spamming yet another thread.

 Melissia wrote:
If they give themselves an order to reroll 1s (which I'm not even sure is possible?

It is not.

 Aenarian wrote:

 Melissia wrote:
If they give themselves an order to reroll 1s (which I'm not even sure is possible?

It is not.

Heh, go figure. So yeah, fun times, makes Rhinos even more durable against Guard firepower.

So there you go. My recommendation for beating guard? Make better use of your own vehicles

Vehicles are a good answer. IG's anti vehicle/high toughness is surprisingly mediocre.

It doesn't have to be poor. They can bring a lot of cheap lascannons.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 crimsondave wrote:

Martel732 wrote:
There's two tiers here. Some concede only that orders need to be removed. I'm more concerned with 50 3pt models that are immune to psychology.

Most offered solutions involve unrealistic scenarios, incorrect math, or hardcore tailoring or a combination thereof. This is the exact same thing eldar players tried in 7th, despite all data and math to the contrary.

So what are we supposed to do? I've conceded we are OP this edition. So have others. We didn't write the friggin book, dude.

I've been wanting to run an all infantry list literally for years now. A list that last edition was a total turd (most IG lists were, honestly.) I was planning to run 100 conscripts, 40 of which I have painted. I can't use them as regulars because I paint them differently. I don't play tourneys, and I don't want to be a DB so now I don't even know if I should run ANY of them. I really want to play on a level playing field. I wish they would fix it tomorrow. Heck, I'd house rule some things to make it more fair. Trouble is, the only acceptable solution for many of you is making us last editions IG, i.e. target practice.

There is not a lot if mathematical space to maneuver here. Someone proposed one conscript squad per ig list.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Melissia wrote:

 Smotejob wrote:
(rhinos are actually still pretty good my friends)

To build on this: Each lascannon the Guard uses on a Rhino has just over a 27% chance to cause on average 3-4 damage. You need 3-4 lascannons to reliably deal one unsaved wound to a Rhino, and thee times this amount to reliably kill it in one turn. That's around 288 points of heavy weapons teams with 12 lascannons firing at the rhino in a single round to kill it. Having this many additional squads means they will go second, and you can prevent them from doing as much damage to you by killing the very fragile squads. This is about four times the rhino's cost, btw.

On a turn the Rhino pops smoke, this becomes an 18.5% chance to cause on average 3-4 damage. You need 5-6 lascannons per smoke-popping rhino in order to reliably cause an unsaved wound, and in order to destroy one, you need three times this amount to reliably kill it in one turn. That's 360 points of heavy weapons teams with 15 lascannons firing at the rhino in a single round to kill it. Again, you'll probably go first and kill the squads quite easily, being T3, with 3 2-wound models that have a 5+ save and NEED to have line of sight to your vehicles to shoot to begin with. This is about five times the rhino's cost, btw.

So what about vehicles you ask? Okay. A Leman Russ Battle Tank with a Tank Commander and hull lascannon is 209 points; with 3.5 battlecannon shots per turn and 1 lascannon shot per turn. Assuming they're undamaged, they hit on 3+, smoke reduces this to 4+. If they give themselves an order to reroll 1s (which I'm not even sure is possible? but let's humor the idea), they get two battle cannon hits, of which about one and a third wound, and on average less than one is unsaved (0.907 unsaved wounds on average, dealing 1d3 damage). And the lascannon isn't much better (0.729 unsaved wounds on average, dealing 1d6 damage).

So assuming these are rounded up to one (you mathematical sinner), you'd need two of these to take down a rhino that popped smoke in one turn. That's 418 points to take down a single 70-74 point rhino, or about six times the Rhino's cost.

Seriously, Rhinos are fuckin' tough as nails. You could do a lot worse in your dealing with IG by making good use of your vehicles.

Also, I'm disappointed that the complaints about conscripts are spamming yet another thread.

Conscripts are the major obstacle to defeating guard. Of course it came up.

Martel732 wrote:
It doesn't have to be poor. They can bring a lot of cheap lascannons.

True, but none will survive turn one.

Martel732 wrote:

There is not a lot if mathematical space to maneuver here. Someone proposed one conscript squad per ig list.

And result in situations where there are more Grey Knights on a table than Guardsmen. And encourage more Scion spam. This starts to happen at point values that people actually play. Like, 2000 points, depending on your GK list.

Rules that do not scale well are not well though out rules.

 Otto von Bludd wrote:

Martel732 wrote:
It doesn't have to be poor. They can bring a lot of cheap lascannons.

True, but none will survive turn one.

It takes four or five times the cost of "cheap" lascannons to take down a Rhino in one turn. Clearly, Rhinos are op-pls-nerf tier broke.

Welp just got back from a tournament at my local store as Guard. 0-3 against Nids, BA, and Necrons. Ran 60 conscripts, 4 las/plas infantry squads, 2 ccs in a bbq chimera, 1 scion plasma ccs, 2 plasma scion troops, two dakka tauroxes, 9 mortars, pask, and an executioner tank commander.

I honestly should have won the nid one but we ran out of time so he scored a two points on objectives during the top of round 3 and I didnt get to play my half of the round. He was on track to get tabled by 4, if not then 5.

Fliers basically flew past my line in the other two games, killed all my heavy hitters with las/mm/deathrays, and also shredded my conscripts with their tesla/hurricane bolters. Might have been able to turn the BA game around as he was running out of models but again, ran out of time. Necrons just utterly destroyed me. I focus fired the fliers with everything left in my army and they still didn't die til turn 3. The immortal squad had holed up 6" from the relic, deleted the 40 or so conscripts I had sent to take it with their tesla guns, grabbed it, and pulled back to cover. I had gotten them down to two (again, focusing fire), but he res orbed and got most of them back. At that point it was pretty much game.

One of the necron fliers managed to assassinate a commissar by flying right behind him on its way back put of my lines. That was my fault for not putting him in the middle of the blob, but it goes to show that it can definitely be done in a live game. I impulse bought two Hydras on the way out the store.

So I guess my advice would be get a couple fliers?

If your question comes from the Imperial side you need Wolf Scouts.

Wolf Scouts are Elite because their deployment is on a different level to normal Mehrine Scouts and they're much harder to hide from. They can also demand attention by locking down vehicles that Guard armies have coughed up big points for.

RogueApiary wrote:
Welp just got back from a tournament at my local store as Guard. 0-3 against Nids, BA, and Necrons. Ran 60 conscripts, 4 las/plas infantry squads, 2 ccs in a bbq chimera, 1 scion plasma ccs, 2 plasma scion troops, two dakka tauroxes, 9 mortars, pask, and an executioner tank commander.

I honestly should have won the nid one but we ran out of time so he scored a two points on objectives during the top of round 3 and I didnt get to play my half of the round. He was on track to get tabled by 4, if not then 5.

Fliers basically flew past my line in the other two games, killed all my heavy hitters with las/mm/deathrays, and also shredded my conscripts with their tesla/hurricane bolters. Might have been able to turn the BA game around as he was running out of models but again, ran out of time. Necrons just utterly destroyed me. I focus fired the fliers with everything left in my army and they still didn't die til turn 3. The immortal squad had holed up 6" from the relic, deleted the 40 or so conscripts I had sent to take it with their tesla guns, grabbed it, and pulled back to cover. I had gotten them down to two (again, focusing fire), but he res orbed and got most of them back. At that point it was pretty much game.

One of the necron fliers managed to assassinate a commissar by flying right behind him on its way back put of my lines. That was my fault for not putting him in the middle of the blob, but it goes to show that it can definitely be done in a live game. I impulse bought two Hydras on the way out the store.

So I guess my advice would be get a couple fliers?

IG players I go up against are making it so there is no space on their side of the board to do anything. I can't move past them, deep strike, nothing. It's a wall where only selective parts move until I'm completely crippled and its safe to start scoring points.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 daedalus wrote:

Martel732 wrote:

There is not a lot if mathematical space to maneuver here. Someone proposed one conscript squad per ig list.

And result in situations where there are more Grey Knights on a table than Guardsmen. And encourage more Scion spam. This starts to happen at point values that people actually play. Like, 2000 points, depending on your GK list.

Rules that do not scale well are not well though out rules.

Wasn't my idea. It's just one I hadn't though of before.






Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Melissia wrote:

 Otto von Bludd wrote:

Martel732 wrote:
It doesn't have to be poor. They can bring a lot of cheap lascannons.

True, but none will survive turn one.

It takes four or five times the cost of "cheap" lascannons to take down a Rhino in one turn. Clearly, Rhinos are op-pls-nerf tier broke.

That's many reasons that things don't really work out this way. I'll leave you to find out the hard way as to why.

I closed all the deep strike windows in my backfield just fine. But making it impossible for a flyer to move past my conscripts into my backline is significantly harder. Doubly so with a time limit.

Good guard players always block off the backfield with conscripts so moving SRs in better shooting positions is nigh impossible. I'm a BA player and after the IG player seized on me at the BAO he killed 1 10 man tac squad, 2 Razorbacks and a Baal predator.

 Ministry wrote:
Good guard players always block off the backfield with conscripts so moving SRs in better shooting positions is nigh impossible. I'm a BA player and after the IG player seized on me at the BAO he killed 1 10 man tac squad, 2 Razorbacks and a Baal predator.

Who did you play?

OP - Post some batreps. Would help people give more poignant advice - lets them see the lists and tactics involved.

 vipoid wrote:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Martel is correct, basically. They're becoming the same way Eldar apologists used to be.

To be fair, the anti-IG crowd are far from reasonable themselves.

I've seen many IG players accept that, for example, Conscripts are a problem and offer solutions.

However, those solutions are constantly rejected by the anti-IG crowd in favour of solutions like 'we need to nerf every single aspect of conscripts and then increase their cost just to be sure', or 'we need to nerf conscripts in such a way that all other (non-OP) IG infantry gets screwed over even more', or 'let's make it that every Commissar is only allowed to fire his gun when he's pointing it up his own nose'.

The reason IG players are getting defensive is because many of the anti-IG crowd want to institute nerfs that would cripple the entire IG army (and they've already suffered through 2 editions of that).

If you and the other anti-IG crowd want a reasonable response then you have to be reasonable yourselves. Yet thus far the reasonable ones seem to be a tiny minority at best.

There's a few ways to go about it.
1. Orders pass on a 4+, as they're not fully trained.
2. Restrict the maximum unit size to 25-30
3. Commisars off D3 instead of just one.
4. Let them get the full support of all HQ as current, but everyone gets a point increase of 1. Part of the reason Guard infantry sucked last edition was because orders not being automatic, and AP5 Ignores Cover not being hard to get. Neither is an issue anymore for any of them.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
However, the attitude of "Conscripts and Scion Command Squads are fine" really needs to stop.

 Ministry wrote:
Good guard players always block off the backfield with conscripts so moving SRs in better shooting positions is nigh impossible. I'm a BA player and after the IG player seized on me at the BAO he killed 1 10 man tac squad, 2 Razorbacks and a Baal predator.

How many conscripts did he have? I was running 60, which was enough to block my front and maybe went 4 inches deep. This was spearhead assault so maybe I had a deeper backline then I should have? The conscripts were as far forward as I could get them so I could start moving on objectives. Other than running twice as many conscripts, I don't see how I could deny all that space to have prevented it.

So I just fought my first Guard army (as Adeptus Custodes no less). I lost, but I in no way see why all the complaints are raging in here. Admittedly, he was more plasma drop than conscript but his conscript forces were a complete non-factor. Even without the morale phase the Custodians mulched them at a completely unsustainable rate for them to hold objectives.

I ended up losing far more to the Falchion he had (2k point game). I couldn't hold objectives with that obliterating everything.

If we're going to nerf AM at all, reducing conscripts to 20/unit is probably all you need.

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

 vipoid wrote:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
Martel is correct, basically. They're becoming the same way Eldar apologists used to be.

To be fair, the anti-IG crowd are far from reasonable themselves.

I've seen many IG players accept that, for example, Conscripts are a problem and offer solutions.

However, those solutions are constantly rejected by the anti-IG crowd in favour of solutions like 'we need to nerf every single aspect of conscripts and then increase their cost just to be sure', or 'we need to nerf conscripts in such a way that all other (non-OP) IG infantry gets screwed over even more', or 'let's make it that every Commissar is only allowed to fire his gun when he's pointing it up his own nose'.

The reason IG players are getting defensive is because many of the anti-IG crowd want to institute nerfs that would cripple the entire IG army (and they've already suffered through 2 editions of that).

If you and the other anti-IG crowd want a reasonable response then you have to be reasonable yourselves. Yet thus far the reasonable ones seem to be a tiny minority at best.

There's a few ways to go about it.
1. Orders pass on a 4+, as they're not fully trained.
2. Restrict the maximum unit size to 25-30
3. Commisars off D3 instead of just one.
4. Let them get the full support of all HQ as current, but everyone gets a point increase of 1. Part of the reason Guard infantry sucked last edition was because orders not being automatic, and AP5 Ignores Cover not being hard to get. Neither is an issue anymore for any of them.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
However, the attitude of "Conscripts and Scion Command Squads are fine" really needs to stop.

There are two consolidated threads talking about Conscripts, including one with a poll to discuss potential fixes. What needs to stop is people hijacking threads to talk about Conscripts being OP or how to fix them - neither of which does anything to help OP's current predicament and discussion of which draws a legitmate thread off topic.

Yes, let's not let the anti-conscript whine-squad take over this thread.

Right now, the Imperial Guard actually has a hard time taking down, point per point, Space Marine vehicles. It takes 12-15 lascannons to take down a rhino in one turn (12 if it hasn't popped smoke, 15 if it has). And that's assuming that he has 15 lascannons in five heavy weapons teams, which five times the cost of the Rhino. If your Rhinos are transporting units and ramming in to enemy squads to force them in to melee (and thus prevent their shooting and overwatch), they're easily worth their 70 points.

As another example, take a quad lascannon predator. Any vehicle of tgheirs that needs LoS is an instant victim to it; where Marine transport vehicles pop smoke to reduce Guard shooting to 5+, a backline Predator has a hefty 3+ to hit, and results in an average of one and a half wounds, or around 3-7 damage per turn average. And this 3+ isn't reduced to 4+ until it takes six wounds. With its T7, it requires something on the level of a lascannon to wound on a 3+-- an autocannon wounds on a 4+ and a multilaser or less on a 5+. But it can still keep shooting all weapons even then, just at a 4+.

Compare that to the heavy weapons squads; as they take wounds, they lose whole lascannons. A heavy bolter dev squad, a dakka predator, or any of our fliers can wipe out between two and three lascannon teams each turn, reducing the enemy's anti-tank infantry firepower by often a massive amount.

"So what the enemy will just use manticores hidden behind terrain!" For one, if you're playing so that 6+ manticores are hidden from sight no matter where you put your anti-tank in your deployment zone, you're playing the game wrong. No, shut up, you're playing it wrong. Even GW's own Cities of Death tables wouldn't allow that kind of deployment. Shut up and start playing the game right.

That said, but if the enemy only has manticores as anti-tank... they're still not gonna do much point per point. If they dedicate 400 points of their strongest artillery unit on a single rhino of yours, they might-- MIGHT-- take it down in one turn, but more likely than not they'll require a fourth or fifth manticore. And all the rest of your tanks can move up unopposed. Sometimes the manticores will get lucky and do more damage than average. But at the same time, sometimes they'll get unlucky and do almost no damage. That's the nature of the game.

tl;dr: know your opponent's forces. Understand their capabilities, and deploy appropriately. Be adaptable to the situation, Use your strengths to your advantage-- including strengths that wouldn't really be all that strong against other armies, but are strong against this one-- and minimize your weaknesses.

In other words? To win as a Space marine, you need to ACT like a fuckin' Space Marine. Don't let fear get in the way of victory.

And you don't see a problem with those rhino numbers?

Rhinos, and many vehicles, are simply too durable to realistically be dealt with. - I get that vehicles were getting splat too quick in other editions, but, this one...

People who use rhino walls to block deep strikes, charges, and tie up units for multiple rounds' it's a bit much, especially as ork.

The answer to cheese shouldn't be to use a different kind of cheese.

Actually I'm of the opinion that everyone should be "cheese" but in its own unique way. Orks have their own problems right now that need to be sorted out.

True, orks have significant unit choice and design issues that aren't solved simply by toning down the top units from other factions.

AMs ability to parking lot and win is real solid this edition. I feel manticores are a huge offender; who cares if they're useless turn 5-7, when most armies can't weather the firepower straight up anyways. Add in master of ordnance...

 Melissia wrote:
Yes, let's not let the anti-conscript whine-squad take over this thread.

Right now, the Imperial Guard actually has a hard time taking down, point per point, Space Marine vehicles. It takes 12-15 lascannons to take down a rhino in one turn (12 if it hasn't popped smoke, 15 if it has). And that's assuming that he has 15 lascannons in five heavy weapons teams, which five times the cost of the Rhino. If your Rhinos are transporting units and ramming in to enemy squads to force them in to melee (and thus prevent their shooting and overwatch), they're easily worth their 70 points.

As another example, take a quad lascannon predator. Any vehicle of tgheirs that needs LoS is an instant victim to it; where Marine transport vehicles pop smoke to reduce Guard shooting to 5+, a backline Predator has a hefty 3+ to hit, and results in an average of one and a half wounds, or around 3-7 damage per turn average. And this 3+ isn't reduced to 4+ until it takes six wounds. With its T7, it requires something on the level of a lascannon to wound on a 3+-- an autocannon wounds on a 4+ and a multilaser or less on a 5+. But it can still keep shooting all weapons even then, just at a 4+.

Compare that to the heavy weapons squads; as they take wounds, they lose whole lascannons. A heavy bolter dev squad, a dakka predator, or any of our fliers can wipe out between two and three lascannon teams each turn, reducing the enemy's anti-tank infantry firepower by often a massive amount.

"So what the enemy will just use manticores hidden behind terrain!" For one, if you're playing so that 6+ manticores are hidden from sight no matter where you put your anti-tank in your deployment zone, you're playing the game wrong. No, shut up, you're playing it wrong. Even GW's own Cities of Death tables wouldn't allow that kind of deployment. Shut up and start playing the game right.

That said, but if the enemy only has manticores as anti-tank... they're still not gonna do much point per point. If they dedicate 400 points of their strongest artillery unit on a single rhino of yours, they might-- MIGHT-- take it down in one turn, but more likely than not they'll require a fourth or fifth manticore. And all the rest of your tanks can move up unopposed. Sometimes the manticores will get lucky and do more damage than average. But at the same time, sometimes they'll get unlucky and do almost no damage. That's the nature of the game.

tl;dr: know your opponent's forces. Understand their capabilities, and deploy appropriately. Be adaptable to the situation, Use your strengths to your advantage-- including strengths that wouldn't really be all that strong against other armies, but are strong against this one-- and minimize your weaknesses.

In other words? To win as a Space marine, you need to ACT like a fuckin' Space Marine. Don't let fear get in the way of victory.

This is exactly right. Guard does indeed struggle to take down mass t7 or t8 despite that you can theoretically spam lascannon HWTs. If you want to have even a chance of taking down a single rhino you NEED to spam them as you have pointed out. I am seriously considering getting some quad las-preds for my guard army to replace my LRBTs just to deal with this problem because nothing in the Guard roster can really do it. Battle Cannons, as much as I've tried to like them, usually take a couple wounds at most off T7 target. That is terrible for a 200 point main battle tank which will stands a very good chance of being one shot by the aforementioned las pred. Artillery too gets 3-4 wounds typically which again just doesn't cut it.

Orks has very serious problems with T8 vehicles. But we are probably one of the best factions against T7 stuff ( with the exception of Airborne and Hard to Hit flyers). Boyz will kill rhinos and chimeras all day, and killing the occupants along with the transports. Imperial guard is strong this edition, but they are not broken unless they bring twin-punisher vultures or something.

And remember, static gunlines only works until you start playing Maelstrom.

pismakron wrote:
Orks has very serious problems with T8 vehicles. But we are probably one of the best factions against T7 stuff ( with the exception of Airborne and Hard to Hit flyers). Boyz will kill rhinos and chimeras all day, and killing the occupants along with the transports. Imperial guard is strong this edition, but they are not broken unless they bring twin-punisher vultures or something.

And remember, static gunlines only works until you start playing Maelstrom.

It still works fine if you table your opponent. Which appears to be the norm in 8th.

As for guard player's, if you are shooting at rhinos then you are almost certainly doing it wrong.

 Melissia wrote:
Yes, let's not let the anti-conscript whine-squad take over this thread.

Right now, the Imperial Guard actually has a hard time taking down, point per point, Space Marine vehicles. It takes 12-15 lascannons to take down a rhino in one turn (12 if it hasn't popped smoke, 15 if it has). And that's assuming that he has 15 lascannons in five heavy weapons teams, which five times the cost of the Rhino. If your Rhinos are transporting units and ramming in to enemy squads to force them in to melee (and thus prevent their shooting and overwatch), they're easily worth their 70 points.

As another example, take a quad lascannon predator. Any vehicle of tgheirs that needs LoS is an instant victim to it; where Marine transport vehicles pop smoke to reduce Guard shooting to 5+, a backline Predator has a hefty 3+ to hit, and results in an average of one and a half wounds, or around 3-7 damage per turn average. And this 3+ isn't reduced to 4+ until it takes six wounds. With its T7, it requires something on the level of a lascannon to wound on a 3+-- an autocannon wounds on a 4+ and a multilaser or less on a 5+. But it can still keep shooting all weapons even then, just at a 4+.

Compare that to the heavy weapons squads; as they take wounds, they lose whole lascannons. A heavy bolter dev squad, a dakka predator, or any of our fliers can wipe out between two and three lascannon teams each turn, reducing the enemy's anti-tank infantry firepower by often a massive amount.

"So what the enemy will just use manticores hidden behind terrain!" For one, if you're playing so that 6+ manticores are hidden from sight no matter where you put your anti-tank in your deployment zone, you're playing the game wrong. No, shut up, you're playing it wrong. Even GW's own Cities of Death tables wouldn't allow that kind of deployment. Shut up and start playing the game right.

That said, but if the enemy only has manticores as anti-tank... they're still not gonna do much point per point. If they dedicate 400 points of their strongest artillery unit on a single rhino of yours, they might-- MIGHT-- take it down in one turn, but more likely than not they'll require a fourth or fifth manticore. And all the rest of your tanks can move up unopposed. Sometimes the manticores will get lucky and do more damage than average. But at the same time, sometimes they'll get unlucky and do almost no damage. That's the nature of the game.

tl;dr: know your opponent's forces. Understand their capabilities, and deploy appropriately. Be adaptable to the situation, Use your strengths to your advantage-- including strengths that wouldn't really be all that strong against other armies, but are strong against this one-- and minimize your weaknesses.

In other words? To win as a Space marine, you need to ACT like a fuckin' Space Marine. Don't let fear get in the way of victory.

Let us know how many games you win with marines, because its much more complicated than your analysis.