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edited by moderator

Can we just stop feeding the troll now? Cause at this point, for the sake of my faith in humanity, I have to believe that Xeno is a troll with nothing better to do than waste peoples' time with threads like this.

Let this thread die, please.

 ruminator wrote:

Table wrote:
Im sorry, I try to be as nice as possible on this forum, but I just have to state that the levels of entitlement on this thread are staggering. You have no idea whats going on. I do not either. But I can assure you that this is not aimed at you and most certainly not the first time this has happened.

When the Legions codex hit almost a year ago GW ran out of nearly half the chaos lineup. Took them months to restock.

Kits dont poof into reality and there is limit capacity at the production level. So when they (GW) do something right and release a popular update to a range there is a chance they will have more demand than supply, It has happened before and it will happen again.

In america we have this problem that the hottest christmas toys seem to sell out quickly and supply cannot meet demand, we even have after market sellers who stock pile in anticipation. GW is not alone in this issue.

I am not a GW apologist. I am just not entitled.

This isn't a new company, they are not stepping into the unknown here. The fact that after all these years of making games and related miniatures they are surprised by the demand is itself sign of poor management. Production takes time but they probably have release schedules for more than 12 months in relation to books, so easy to match production to launches.

Actually they are.

They haven't been growing for at least 10 years, it's a massively huge business change.

pismakron wrote:
They still sell Goff Rockers from GWs homepage. That is what you end up doing if you keep too large inventories.

Just imagine how many they would have sold if they had actually bothered to put some rules on them in the index.

 Farseer_V2 wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

These are easy problems to solve actually...actually having product available to sell is basically rule number 1 of business. They should have expected 8th edition would be as popular as it is. They had a full 6 months (or more) to prepare and stock up...it is - indefensible and it's costing them money. Good companies don't let money slip away from them.

So tell me how many years have you spent running an injection facility? How many years have you spent in product management and store set? You have no idea what you're talking about here because you simply don't understand the basic business in play here. Sure in an ideal world every company at all times keeps stock levels ramped to holiday levels, that world doesn't exist though. See the video game console industry, see the high end specialty car industry - it isn't easy to perfectly predict demand against supply. Also let me ask again - do you understand how having excess stock on hand works for a company?

He also doesn't understand how much production is lost to changing moulds. They can't just knock out a few carnifexes to get the stock back up in between other things. Because of the lost time for switching moulds they have to make a full run or they're making the problem worse. That means something else loses it's production slot and then goes out of stock.

I think there are some other factors that are being missed as well that are contributing to part of the problem.

The first is that games stores are pretty much required to stock certain products just to be a trade partner. Many of the small game stores i have gone to stock the same "core" products and do very little to carry any additional product beyond that. Most often i am told to special order or pre-order product to guarantee i get it.

Both GW and local game stores are trying to reduce the amount of product they have to buy that just sits on the shelves. Stores have to buy that product from their distributors and until a final sale is made that is cash out of their pocket, and by carrying a smaller amount of stock that is less cash they have to put out that sits on the shelf collecting dust.

That brings me to my second point which is popularity. IMHO i found 6th and 7th to be pretty garbage editions, i really have not bought models or books during their lifespans. Some armies were pretty terrible during those editions, Tyranids being one of them. Now in 8th they got much better in the indexes and while that might have been a good time for GW to ramp up their production i feel that many players have been holding off purchases until their army's codex is out. At my FLGS over half of the players are interested in 8th and want to play but are waiting for a codex rather than using just the indexes. That slightly skews GW's ability to project demand for their products.

I feel that direct only models are also a contributing factor into the shortage. By making a model Direct Only, GW can now produce smaller batch runs as they only have to stock a handful of warehouses rather than have enough product on hand to stock every store.

So really the situation is you have a "streamlined" almost on demand production line that already has ebbs and flows of production hit with an electrical grid disruption on top of higher demand from a successful release and this is pretty much as worse case as it could get.

Nobody is recommending they sit on masses and masses of unrequired stock. What they are querying is why GW seem unable to appreciate that the release of a new Tyranid codex will co-incide with an increase in demand for Tyranid models. As the codex issue was likely known some 12 months in advance we're not talking about a mass of changing moulds around weeks before, but a proper production plan for at least a year so that availability of stock is considered in line with new codex releases and hits the shelves at the right time.

There was even a comment here that GW had no way of knowing the carnifex box would likely increase in demand following the new codex dropping. Really? Not only the generic carnifex entry, but an HQ entry (OOE) and 2 specific named carnifex versions in addition to this would make this look pretty likely. If you asked the writers I'm sure they'd have flagged that as one to watch and were likely specifically tasked which making the model useable again.

Does anyone honestly think there won't be an increase in sales of Blood Angels and Dark Angels boxes on the new codexes dropping? Do you honestly think that GW can't work this out from all the years of previous codex releases and plan ahead. Codexes do have long lead times themselves after all.

You don't think the external shareholders will be looking at the out of stock issues and asking some hard questions as to why this wasn't handled better. The shares have gone up, yes, but realistically could have gone up more - same for dividends.

"Half" is pushing it.

Sad person that I am, I counted (on the US site).

51 options, 20 not available for one reason or another, so 2/5.

Still not great, tho some items double up - there are several carnifex brood options, so I assume that if ONE fex isn't available, multiples won't be either. The doubling up would also of course apply to sets that ARE in stock.

As for "5,000 carnifex kits will sell instantly" (or words to that effect, surely that can only be a random or wishful guess. The only person I would expect to have a knowledgeable view on this would be stock control/inventory/management, who could presumably tell how many fexes have sold in the last 3 months....

 ruminator wrote:
Nobody is recommending they sit on masses and masses of unrequired stock. What they are querying is why GW seem unable to appreciate that the release of a new Tyranid codex will co-incide with an increase in demand for Tyranid models.

What makes you think they didn't spin more to prepare? Do you have evidence of this?

 ruminator wrote:
Nobody is recommending they sit on masses and masses of unrequired stock. What they are querying is why GW seem unable to appreciate that the release of a new Tyranid codex will co-incide with an increase in demand for Tyranid models. As the codex issue was likely known some 12 months in advance we're not talking about a mass of changing moulds around weeks before, but a proper production plan for at least a year so that availability of stock is considered in line with new codex releases and hits the shelves at the right time.

There was even a comment here that GW had no way of knowing the carnifex box would likely increase in demand following the new codex dropping. Really? Not only the generic carnifex entry, but an HQ entry (OOE) and 2 specific named carnifex versions in addition to this would make this look pretty likely. If you asked the writers I'm sure they'd have flagged that as one to watch and were likely specifically tasked which making the model useable again.

Does anyone honestly think there won't be an increase in sales of Blood Angels and Dark Angels boxes on the new codexes dropping? Do you honestly think that GW can't work this out from all the years of previous codex releases and plan ahead. Codexes do have long lead times themselves after all.

You don't think the external shareholders will be looking at the out of stock issues and asking some hard questions as to why this wasn't handled better. The shares have gone up, yes, but realistically could have gone up more - same for dividends.

So you really think they didn't increase at all the stock levels pre-release? Or maybe (and the more likely) is that they did increase stock levels but missed the mark because the release proved more popular than forecasted.

It's all about supply chain management, safety stock, projecting expected sales, and maintaining inventory levels of 100+ SKUs.

Any feth up in one of the above and you run out of a product.

It can happen to anyone, but it's certainly frustrating if you're the person that wants that thing. I can certainly empathize.

So (based entirely on what I have read on the thread), is it possible that GW can't move the mold machines for certain models from the depowered factory?

I may be showing my ignorance of plastic casting here, but every time I think of a factory I think of floor-length production lines and huge machines bolted to the floor. I'm probably wrong, but it seems to me like moving the machinery from one factory to another is a herculean effort, and that would tell me that they simply are completely unable to produce the stock requested until a lucky day when the power is on.

They will most likely be moving the molds, not entire machines.

Yeah they'd be able to move molds but moving entire machines isn't something that's easily done - it takes a large amount of effort and heavy hauling equipment.

Complaining cause minis have been out of stock for only a few weeks is pretty much the definition of first world problems.

Given the amount of people suddenly returning, I'm amazed they keep anything in stock at all...

Moving heavy machinery isn't easy. It's a lot of practical little details. It's not neccesary herculean but thakes time and effort. They are probably better of just waiting for more power.

Injection molding means high presure,molten plastic. You can't just do that anywhere. Both because of power and safety concerns.

There is also the legal side of the issue. There are some sharp quality/safety/enviroment assurances you need to give in EU countries before being allowed to open another factory. GW isn't huge but big enough and with dangerous equipment to need bigger asurances.

All in all a company the size of GW can't adapt to problems very quickly. Three weeks on a production scale is practically nothing.

Daedalus81 wrote:

 ruminator wrote:
Nobody is recommending they sit on masses and masses of unrequired stock. What they are querying is why GW seem unable to appreciate that the release of a new Tyranid codex will co-incide with an increase in demand for Tyranid models.

What makes you think they didn't spin more to prepare? Do you have evidence of this?

The speed in which large chunks of the Nid range went OOS is indicative that any increase was marginal at best. Do you have anything to support they do project sales based on codex releases, because recent history is hardly supportive of this?

Let's be honest, go into any stockist (including their own stores) and the boxes are pretty much the same every time, irrespective of what's come out recently. I bought my Nid codex from Warhammer on Tottenham Court Road and a quick look at the Nid models in stock and there was about 6-7 different boxes in total. The shelf was looking organized as well so it didn't look half empty like they'd had a run on Nids that day, just that they had a basic stock of Nid models in stock ... on the day the codex came out! Talk about lost sales - if they'd a box of hive guard or two there I would probably have bought some for sure! I'm sure that's likely the case with many customers.

 ruminator wrote:

Daedalus81 wrote:

 ruminator wrote:
Nobody is recommending they sit on masses and masses of unrequired stock. What they are querying is why GW seem unable to appreciate that the release of a new Tyranid codex will co-incide with an increase in demand for Tyranid models.

What makes you think they didn't spin more to prepare? Do you have evidence of this?

The speed in which large chunks of the Nid range went OOS is indicative that any increase was marginal at best. Do you have anything to support they do project sales based on codex releases, because recent history is hardly supportive of this?

I do. That was part of my job for GW.

 Farseer_V2 wrote:

 ruminator wrote:

Daedalus81 wrote:

 ruminator wrote:
Nobody is recommending they sit on masses and masses of unrequired stock. What they are querying is why GW seem unable to appreciate that the release of a new Tyranid codex will co-incide with an increase in demand for Tyranid models.

What makes you think they didn't spin more to prepare? Do you have evidence of this?

The speed in which large chunks of the Nid range went OOS is indicative that any increase was marginal at best. Do you have anything to support they do project sales based on codex releases, because recent history is hardly supportive of this?

I do. That was part of my job for GW.

You did a great job then!

Snark is fine - I'm no longer employed there. Just offering you proof that GW does spool up stock levels prior to a release based on an existing forecasting model.

 Farseer_V2 wrote:
Snark is fine - I'm no longer employed there. Just offering you proof that GW does spool up stock levels prior to a release based on an existing forecasting model.

Which by nature can't be right in a period where sales pick up dramatically.

Honestly, I think they were surprised by their own success, and they weren't the only ones.

US Nid players -- Carnifexes and Raveners are back in stop. Go for it!

Another imbalance between the haves and have-not armies, btw; it seems like you can buy intercessors in what, 3, different box sizes? For whatever reason, GW deleted the single Carnifex box from their catalog; I love Carnifexes enough to buy them twice, but I'm pretty sure Marine players don't have to do anything like that.

 Gene St. Ealer wrote:
US Nid players -- Carnifexes and Raveners are back in stop. Go for it!

Another imbalance between the haves and have-not armies, btw; it seems like you can buy intercessors in what, 3, different box sizes?

Yes and no.
There's a "Combat Squad" box for $35(5 of the multi-part Intercessors) and an "Intercessor Squad" box for $60(10 of the multi-part Intercessors). That came about because of the reception of Stormcast Eternals; notably the fact that a minimum sized unit was $50 for 5 of the multi-parts. They basically didn't sell as people just bought the starter set instead. They just did things in reverse with Primaris, where we started with the 10 model box and got the 5 model box later.

The third box is $15 and is 3 models intended to fill out a squad/add some extra models to the starter set stuff.


Termagants actually have a 5 for $10 box that is just the Devourer IIRC. Basically pushfit stuff.

For whatever reason, GW deleted the single Carnifex box from their catalog; I love Carnifexes enough to buy them twice, but I'm pretty sure Marine players don't have to do anything like that.

It's been gone for quite some time.
We don't really know why. There's an assumption that part of it was in response to the existence of(at that time) the old Battleforces that included Carnifexes being considered a "better value". So they ditched the 1x Carnifex box(which was $50) and instead set them to the 2x Carnifex box at $90(saving you $10).

 ruminator wrote:

The speed in which large chunks of the Nid range went OOS is indicative that any increase was marginal at best.

Some horribly faulty logic there.

All it tells you is that demand outstripped supply by a substantial margin. Unless you have some data on one of those variables then you can make no such inference.

So wait...if GW doesn't magically know how exactly, to the decimal, how many butthurt neckbeards are going to come REEEEEEEEing out of the r/incels to buy Nids now that they're FOTM, it's 100% proof of massive institutionalized incompetence?

Lol, cool story bro.

I don't understand. Through the emperors divine grace we are lucky to be xeons free. Your argument is most cromulent.