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 Disciple of Fate wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
You didn't read the thread at all, did you Frazzled?

I did. Just disagreeing with her intent of the statement.

What are the chances of a far right party coming up there? Need to know in case we have to break the glass on the DO NOT OPEN EXCEPT IN CASE OF NAZI INVASION zombie Zhukov vault.

Just to be clear, what do you think her intent and concept behind no-go zones was then?

Also the chances of a far right party coming up? Last I checked the party being led by people who consider Holocaust memorials to bring shame upon Germans and who think Germans should be proud of the Wehrmacht got 1/8th of the vote in this election. I would say we already passed the stage of the far right just "coming up".

If that's true. Well then yes the right has got up and it's walking.

However...
That does not happen overnight. The growth will not have been last month, or even last year. That only happens over multiple years and a longer period.

 jhe90 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
You didn't read the thread at all, did you Frazzled?

I did. Just disagreeing with her intent of the statement.

What are the chances of a far right party coming up there? Need to know in case we have to break the glass on the DO NOT OPEN EXCEPT IN CASE OF NAZI INVASION zombie Zhukov vault.

Just to be clear, what do you think her intent and concept behind no-go zones was then?

Also the chances of a far right party coming up? Last I checked the party being led by people who consider Holocaust memorials to bring shame upon Germans and who think Germans should be proud of the Wehrmacht got 1/8th of the vote in this election. I would say we already passed the stage of the far right just "coming up".

If that's true. Well then yes the right has got up and it's walking.

However...
That does not happen overnight. The growth will not have been last month, or even last year. That only happens over multiple years and a longer period.

Well a lot of AfD voters get attracted to the 'populist' attitude of being anti of what the government and most other parties are more positive towards (I believe almost all parties are/used to be pretty positive to taking in refugees besides the AfD), they grew because of the Eurozone troubles and the refugee crisis. Its political opportunism, most of their voters aren't far right, just right and the AfD tried hard to hide it up to the elections, but the AfD really was the big alternative if not a very good one. The people running the AfD however are pretty much far right adjacent and comfortable about it in public, there was even that falling out that led to their more moderate leader (Petry) leaving just hours after the election to become an independent. Petry really was the one trying to downplay certain sentiments to try and get those votes. As I said earlier in this thread, the AfD is a kind of protest party, they are against a lot of things, but not with all too clear idea about what they want to do themselves. It will be interesting to see if the party can get its act together, but with the cartoon caricatures running the show, I'm not going to bet on it. So its likely those voters will just end up dissapointed.

Its political opportunism, most of their voters aren't far right, just right and the AfD tried hard to hide it up to the elections, but the AfD really was the big alternative if not a very good one.

I agree with this, IMO most of the people who voted AfD did it because basically all other parties share the same vision to a degree that people have started making jokes about the return of the GDR with its pseudo-parliament. I don't think that most of their voters are far right, it's just the one option to actually ring the bell. I don't think the rest really got the message, though, although the FDP at least showed some grace (I know that the media say they chickened out, but I think Lindner did the right thing. The party would not have survived being the voting cattle for a black-green government. Also, only about 10% of German political journalists say they're conservatives or liberals while roughly 40% tend toward the Greens, so I do get the feeling that there's a lot of revenge writing going on because the Greens didn't get to rule when the FDP said they would pull out).

Anyway:
You know that stuff is going wrong in your political spectrum when there's a peaceful protest against the conservative chancellor and the police has to protect the protesters from the Antifa. The whole situation in this country has become ridiculous because there weren't really any political wings to choose for quite some time.

The growth will not have been last month, or even last year.

That party is basically 5 years old and started out as a neoconservative party by a few euroskeptic academics. It wasn't a growth, it was an explosion post-2015. Zero to 14% in two elections, and they failed to get into the Bundestag the first time. In the polls, they're overtaking the SPD which used to take up to 40%, but like all other european social democrats sort of died very quickly recently.

XuQishi wrote:

Its political opportunism, most of their voters aren't far right, just right and the AfD tried hard to hide it up to the elections, but the AfD really was the big alternative if not a very good one.

I agree with this, IMO most of the people who voted AfD did it because basically all other parties share the same vision to a degree that people have started making jokes about the return of the GDR with its pseudo-parliament. I don't think that most of their voters are far right, it's just the one option to actually ring the bell. I don't think the rest really got the message, though, although the FDP at least showed some grace (I know that the media say they chickened out, but I think Lindner did the right thing. The party would not have survived being the voting cattle for a black-green government. Also, only about 10% of German political journalists say they're conservatives or liberals while roughly 40% tend toward the Greens, so I do get the feeling that there's a lot of revenge writing going on because the Greens didn't get to rule when the FDP said they would pull out).

Anyway:
You know that stuff is going wrong in your political spectrum when there's a peaceful protest against the conservative chancellor and the police has to protect the protesters from the Antifa. The whole situation in this country has become ridiculous because there weren't really any political wings to choose for quite some time.

To be fair, the FDP voters seem to be quite fickle, with not 10 years ago having dipped under the required 5%, so it really makes sense that the media don't really reflect that party much, because there isn't much representation of the party in society.

As for the pseudo-parliament joke. In a sense the parties were a decent reflection of German society until about 2009, things were going relatively well for the majority of Germans and there wasn't much need to change things up. The Eurozone crisis and the Refugee crisis provided alternative views for those in former East-Germany who might still have felt to be left behind and those for whom the SPD and CDU/CSU weren't tough enough on their issues. Its great for those people, but it sucks that the only place they can go is a party that is run by individuals best left at the margins of society. Therein lies the problem, to most of us more along the center-left axis the AfD is repulsive because of its leaders, yet how much can we blame voters with no alternative to vote for those leaders? Personally I still find it distasteful with the full historical knowledge behind what representatives of said party have proclaimed to vote for the AfD, yet those voters might feel like being stuck between a rock and a hard place with the AfD versus the other parties.

Some difficult motivations to consider, but the AfD won't provide those people with an answer because its driving out the moderates. Sadly for their voters, the collapse of the AfD (while I would cheer that on) might possibly also mean the collapse of any other attempt to have a different political party from the current ones, as the perception could be created that they are doomed to fail or aimed at the far right (even if most of the majority of AfD voters might not be).

XuQishi wrote:

The growth will not have been last month, or even last year.

That party is basically 5 years old and started out as a neoconservative party by a few euroskeptic academics. It wasn't a growth, it was an explosion post-2015. Zero to 14% in two elections, and they failed to get into the Bundestag the first time. In the polls, they're overtaking the SPD which used to take up to 40%, but like all other european social democrats sort of died very quickly recently.

Well they went to 12.6%. In the 2013 elections they got 4.7% of the vote, just .3% under the voting threshold. But the 2015 explosion due to the Refugee crisis was really their best case scenario to grow, the question is if that best case scenario growth is sustainable. Certainly doubtful with the state of the party.

so it really makes sense that the media don't really reflect that party much

It's not missing coverage, it's a lot of coverage that puts the blame for the failed Jamaica coalition solely on them, IMO undeservedly.

but it sucks that the only place they can go is a party that is run by individuals best left at the margins of society

Very much so. I can't tell you what I think of Höcke, Gedeon and Poggenburg, that would end up being a giant rant.

those voters might feel like being stuck between a rock and a hard place with the AfD versus the other parties

The eastern Germans used to vote for Die Linke heavily, but they would have just driven the Merkel course into overdrive and the ex-GDR-citizens aren't that big into internationalism and communism anymore. They've had enough of that, also of having to read between the lines in the news (something that is currently undergoing a reversal, though).

the question is if that best case scenario growth is sustainable

Depends on how much the next GroKo screws up, really. In today's poll they scored 16% compared to the SPD's 15.5 and the polls are difficult to read. There's a massive shy tory effect going on regarding the AfD because there have been incidences of people getting fired or otherwise disadvantaged for acknowledging to vote for them.

In the 2013 elections they got 4.7% of the vote, just .3% under the voting threshold.

That was a terrible election overall, IMO. It ended up with about 16% of the valid votes circling down the drain with no representation in the parliament. Good thing that didn't happen in 2017 again.

(Just for the record, my ideal-ish government would be a CDU-FDP coalition, but without Merkel at the helm and a programme that closely resembles their 2005 programme).

XuQishi wrote:

so it really makes sense that the media don't really reflect that party much

It's not missing coverage, it's a lot of coverage that puts the blame for the failed Jamaica coalition solely on them, IMO undeservedly.

The CDU and the Greens were closer to each other on critical points the FDP didn't agree on. So while attributing the blame solely on them is unfair, they are the ones who walked out while the other two agreed.

XuQishi wrote:

those voters might feel like being stuck between a rock and a hard place with the AfD versus the other parties

The eastern Germans used to vote for Die Linke heavily, but they would have just driven the Merkel course into overdrive and the ex-GDR-citizens aren't that big into internationalism and communism anymore. They've had enough of that, also of having to read between the lines in the news (something that is currently undergoing a reversal, though).

Heavily might be a bit of an overstatement. Die Linke only became the biggest party in a few east German states after becoming Die Linke in the mid 2000's, the SPD used to be stronger there. Its more of a gradual shift to slightly more 'radical' views from the SPD to Die Linke, but when Die Linke didn't translate the mindset of those areas they migrated to the AfD as the other one with the radical views.

XuQishi wrote:

the question is if that best case scenario growth is sustainable

Depends on how much the next GroKo screws up, really. In today's poll they scored 16% compared to the SPD's 15.5 and the polls are difficult to read. There's a massive shy tory effect going on regarding the AfD because there have been incidences of people getting fired or otherwise disadvantaged for acknowledging to vote for them.

Sure, but polls are just polls until its election time. While Merkel and co might screw up, the AfD has to manage not kneecapping itself in the coming years. You might have gotten a lot of votes, but if the party then spends 4 years fighting and destroying itself it won't make itself more attractive.

XuQishi wrote:

In the 2013 elections they got 4.7% of the vote, just .3% under the voting threshold.

That was a terrible election overall, IMO. It ended up with about 16% of the valid votes circling down the drain with no representation in the parliament. Good thing that didn't happen in 2017 again.

(Just for the record, my ideal-ish government would be a CDU-FDP coalition, but without Merkel at the helm and a programme that closely resembles their 2005 programme).

There are benefits and downsides to a threshold, the benefit being that the political landscape doesn't splinter to badly to function at times, the downside is lost votes. Coming from a PR system in the NL where we don't have a threshold, I see the other sides benefits and downsides. Neither is perfect.

Well Merkel has been relatively good for us in the Netherlands as a partner, us being so reliant on Germany after all. As for parties, the FDP broadly aligns with my foreign policy and societal views, maybe a bit too much on the business side for my taste, but there are elements I like from Die Grünen and the SPD.

 Frazzled wrote:
What are the chances of a far right party coming up there? Need to know in case we have to break the glass on the DO NOT OPEN EXCEPT IN CASE OF NAZI INVASION zombie Zhukov vault.

Maybe look into your own backyard first? The US is further along that route than Germany this time around.

 Frazzled wrote:
What are the chances of a far right party coming up there? Need to know in case we have to break the glass on the DO NOT OPEN EXCEPT IN CASE OF NAZI INVASION zombie Zhukov vault.

A Nazi invasion isn't going to happen. Even if things devolved into a total war between the domestic far right and the Islamic far right, I don't think today's far right shares Hitler's expansionist dream of conquering Russia for their Lebensraum.

 AlexHolker wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
What are the chances of a far right party coming up there? Need to know in case we have to break the glass on the DO NOT OPEN EXCEPT IN CASE OF NAZI INVASION zombie Zhukov vault.

A Nazi invasion isn't going to happen. Even if things devolved into a total war between the domestic far right and the Islamic far right, I don't think today's far right shares Hitler's expansionist dream of conquering Russia for their Lebensraum.

The 'German' population is on a steady decline, were it not for immigration and such the Germans would struggle to fill the current Lebensraum in Germany itself, let alone Eastern Europe

Apart from that, the German army had one of its key logistics people release a statement a while ago that they are lacking absolute basic stuff like tents and winter gear, so I'm pretty sure Germany couldn't invade even Liechtenstein properly these days.

 Witzkatz wrote:
lacking absolute basic stuff like tents and winter gear

Well no change there then

But overall that's the story for a lot of European militaries.

I don't follow German politics that closely, but as a general observation hard line right wing parties don't often claim an all powerful share of the vote by themselves. In fact 15 to 20% seems to be a pretty firm ceiling in most cases. Le Pen getting to 34% in the last French election was quite of the ordinary, and it was still a 30 point slaughter. Even after calling a snap election after the Reichstag fire and running a week long terror campaign to scare away the wrong kind of voters, Hitler only just cracked 40% and needed coalition support to form government (the previous election that gave him power he won 33%).

This doesn't mean hard line right wing parties can't get power. But typically it happens when more moderate groups form alliances with the hard liners.

That isn't happening in Germany, is it? Any hint that it might?

XuQishi wrote:


The eastern Germans used to vote for Die Linke heavily, but they would have just driven the Merkel course into overdrive and the ex-GDR-citizens aren't that big into internationalism and communism anymore. They've had enough of that, also of having to read between the lines in the news (something that is currently undergoing a reversal, though).

But they are supportive of the GDR, if things hasn't changed these last 9 years

Dunno, that article is 9 years old and from the Spiegel, which is a giant panic-monger regardless of the topic .

I lived in the east for a few years recently, can't say that this is a huge topic for the under-50s. Note that the East Germans are on average younger than the ones in the west (which also means that the idea that some people have and loudly proclaim that the East plundered the pension fund is hogwash, that's not even how the system works).

The 'German' population is on a steady decline, were it not for immigration and such the Germans would struggle to fill the current Lebensraum in Germany itself,

Actually the Nazis had about 20 million people less to work with. Which shows how stupid that ideology is, there is, however, no actual decline. Also, what people tend to forget: fewer people need less infrastructure. And it would be good for the environment (and hey, we're world leaders in telling people how to be good to the environment. It's bloody expensive and will slow down global warming for 5 seconds and we'll have spent the money on that instead of preparing, but man, are we good at it. ).

 sebster wrote:
I don't follow German politics that closely, but as a general observation hard line right wing parties don't often claim an all powerful share of the vote by themselves. In fact 15 to 20% seems to be a pretty firm ceiling in most cases. Le Pen getting to 34% in the last French election was quite of the ordinary, and it was still a 30 point slaughter. Even after calling a snap election after the Reichstag fire and running a week long terror campaign to scare away the wrong kind of voters, Hitler only just cracked 40% and needed coalition support to form government (the previous election that gave him power he won 33%).

This doesn't mean hard line right wing parties can't get power. But typically it happens when more moderate groups form alliances with the hard liners.

That isn't happening in Germany, is it? Any hint that it might?

No hint for Germany so far. The AfD doesn't really tend to play nice with the other parties or vice versa. The fact that the AfD doesn't even want to keep a pretense of moderate approaches means that they just drive away any possible coalition. Plus it might be electoral suicide for other parties to link up with the AfD, because the voters who supported the AfD already moved over, while the majority of Germans seems to strongly dislike the AfD for obvious reasons.

Le Pen getting 34% is in part a side effect of second round French presidential elections, but as Germany doesn't have that system and multiple parties, I have a hard time seeing them reach above the 10-20% bracket. Taking into account that both the AfD and Le Pen got their election campaigns handed to them on a silver platter due to events in the last years.

Yeah, that's not going to happen, I think. If the AFD took 49% there'd be a coalition of all other parties. The rest will even let Die Linke play a part, although that party has been under scrutiny by the Verfassungsschutz for years (which is not a big wonder given the amount of ex-Stasi in that party).

XuQishi wrote:

The 'German' population is on a steady decline, were it not for immigration and such the Germans would struggle to fill the current Lebensraum in Germany itself,

Actually the Nazis had about 20 million people less to work with. Which shows how stupid that ideology is, there is, however, no actual decline. Also, what people tend to forget: fewer people need less infrastructure. And it would be good for the environment (and hey, we're world leaders in telling people how to be good to the environment. It's bloody expensive and will slow down global warming for 5 seconds and we'll have spent the money on that instead of preparing, but man, are we good at it. ).

Uhm no they didn't. The population of Germany in 39 was about 70 million, add to that the 7 million of Austria and you get 77 million of a much less diverse 'ethnic' background back then. Currently Germany has about 80 million, but only 80% is 'ethnic' German. So in reality Nazi Germany had about 10 million more Germans to work with.

Also there is actual decline. Its obvious from the birthrate of 'ethnic' Germans which is around 1.4 per couple I believe. But a couple is two people, so unless the get 2.1/3 children on average the population is declining. So yes there is actual decline, however it gets evened out by migration and birth rates of other groups in society.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
.

Le Pen getting 34% is in part a side effect of second round French presidential elections, but as Germany doesn't have that system and multiple parties, I have a hard time seeing them reach above the 10-20% bracket. Taking into account that both the AfD and Le Pen got their election campaigns handed to them on a silver platter due to events in the last years.

That and Le Pen has massively toned down the anti-European and anti-immigrant rhetoric.

While her father was openly anti-semite, anti-immigrant and anti-semite she speaks about "the values of laicism" and to "rethink the euro"

It's been a remarkable exercise of rebranding.

jouso wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
.

Le Pen getting 34% is in part a side effect of second round French presidential elections, but as Germany doesn't have that system and multiple parties, I have a hard time seeing them reach above the 10-20% bracket. Taking into account that both the AfD and Le Pen got their election campaigns handed to them on a silver platter due to events in the last years.

That and Le Pen has massively toned down the anti-European and anti-immigrant rhetoric.

While her father was openly anti-semite, anti-immigrant and anti-semite she speaks about "the values of laicism" and to "rethink the euro"

It's been a remarkable exercise of rebranding.

It has, sadly for Le Pen her niece and probable succesor seems to take after grandfather So I wonder how far Le Pen manages to get before her party gaks the bed again.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

jouso wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
.

Le Pen getting 34% is in part a side effect of second round French presidential elections, but as Germany doesn't have that system and multiple parties, I have a hard time seeing them reach above the 10-20% bracket. Taking into account that both the AfD and Le Pen got their election campaigns handed to them on a silver platter due to events in the last years.

That and Le Pen has massively toned down the anti-European and anti-immigrant rhetoric.

While her father was openly anti-semite, anti-immigrant and anti-semite she speaks about "the values of laicism" and to "rethink the euro"

It's been a remarkable exercise of rebranding.

It has, sadly for Le Pen her niece and probable succesor seems to take after grandfather So I wonder how far Le Pen manages to get before her party gaks the bed again.

It's happened also in Italy, where both 5-star movement in the left and the Lega Nord in the right have taken great pains to dillute their message to make it more palatable for the mainstream.

Or in Greece, where I'm now, formerly anti-everything Syriza now sits more or less comfortably just at the edge of the mainstream. Golden Dawn still need to try harder.

Uhm no they didn't. The population of Germany in 39 was about 70 million, add to that the 7 million of Austria and you get 77 million of a much less diverse 'ethnic' background back then. Currently Germany has about 80 million, but only 80% is 'ethnic' German. So in reality Nazi Germany had about 10 million more Germans to work with.

I said people, though . And the country was much bigger. That said, it's hard to argue that a population of 228 people per square kilometer has any problems filling anything. If anything, that's way too many to keep people sane (not completely pulling that out of thin air, recent studies here have shown that kids who grow up in cities develop psychoses and schizophrenia 3 times as often als country kids).

XuQishi wrote:

Uhm no they didn't. The population of Germany in 39 was about 70 million, add to that the 7 million of Austria and you get 77 million of a much less diverse 'ethnic' background back then. Currently Germany has about 80 million, but only 80% is 'ethnic' German. So in reality Nazi Germany had about 10 million more Germans to work with.

I said people, though . And the country was much bigger. That said, it's hard to argue that a population of 228 people per square kilometer has any problems filling anything. If anything, that's way too many to keep people sane (not completely pulling that out of thin air, recent studies here have shown that kids who grow up in cities develop psychoses and schizophrenia 3 times as often als country kids).

Well if we count just people, you're still wrong Because in 39 Nazi Germany had a population of about 88 million with Austria plus the Czech part. They only lost those because the Nazis chose to go to war. So in Germans the Nazis had 10 million more. In general about 6-7 million more.

But the side effect of having a declining population in a welfare state is pressure on budgets. So if you don't keep the population stable something is going to give in the system.

 sebster wrote:
I don't follow German politics that closely, but as a general observation hard line right wing parties don't often claim an all powerful share of the vote by themselves. In fact 15 to 20% seems to be a pretty firm ceiling in most cases. Le Pen getting to 34% in the last French election was quite of the ordinary, and it was still a 30 point slaughter. Even after calling a snap election after the Reichstag fire and running a week long terror campaign to scare away the wrong kind of voters, Hitler only just cracked 40% and needed coalition support to form government (the previous election that gave him power he won 33%).

This doesn't mean hard line right wing parties can't get power. But typically it happens when more moderate groups form alliances with the hard liners.

That isn't happening in Germany, is it? Any hint that it might?

It might. The problem is not that more moderate groups form alliances with the hard liners; it's that the more moderate groups form alliances against the hard liners. That is how they have already broken the ceiling by finding support outside their core voter base: by being the the only ones on their side of the argument.

Certainly, unless the productivity is high enough to compensate (which it is), something that the average German hasn't felt much of. In terms of real money, not nominal money, wages have been dropping since the 90s*, I think this is slowly turning around now, though, as the companies can't get enough good people and start paying better.

*taxation plays a part in this. Currently 60% more people than in 2012 are paying the maximum tax rate, since the brackets are from the 1960s and are never adjusted by inflation. It's starting to hit the guys at the automotive assembly lines now since their wages are now nominally at a level that captains of the industry were in 1960. (To illustrate: It used to be that you had to make 18 times the average income to hit that threshold, it's now 1.3 times). Basically a guy who had to pay that in 1960 could buy 25 VW Beetles with that money or 2.5 average single-family homes. Now it's one Golf GTD or 1/8 of an average house.

XuQishi wrote:
Certainly, unless the productivity is high enough to compensate (which it is), something that the average German hasn't felt much of. In terms of real money, not nominal money, wages have been dropping since the 90s*, I think this is slowly turning around now, though, as the companies can't get enough good people and start paying better.

*taxation plays a part in this. Currently 60% more people than in 2012 are paying the maximum tax rate, since the brackets are from the 1960s and are never adjusted by inflation. It's starting to hit the guys at the automotive assembly lines now since their wages are now nominally at a level that captains of the industry were in 1960. (To illustrate: It used to be that you had to make 18 times the average income to hit that threshold, it's now 1.3 times). Basically a guy who had to pay that in 1960 could buy 25 VW Beetles with that money or 2.5 average single-family homes. Now it's one Golf GTD or 1/8 of an average house.

To a point productivity plays a part. But in the coming years both Germany and the NL will hit the babyboomer retriment wave hump. Once those people stop working you can't tax them the same amount while those people will start drawing more heavily from certain parts of the welfare state.

Wage plays a part in this, wages could go up, but if the wages for 1.4 people don't match the older previous wages for 2 people, you're not going to be able to get the same amount of tax on them. In that case, productivity comes into the picture because companies might start having to pay more if their productivity level stays the same but wage costs relatively decline because less people are employed for the productivity. The money is going to have to come from somewhere, someone is going to have the cough up for the budget shortfalls, at least untill the boomer generation reaches the age they start dying off.

There'd a thing missing here.

Yes there is a rise of far right in Germany, and right in general.

You cannot have the rise of a Nazi without the rise of Hitler, Himler, and Goerbals, speer. Etc.

Theres no charasmatic leader, no one able to easily fill a rally ground of hundreds of thousands, to drive thr vision with Thete oratory. There's no war hero, no national hero, no propaganda master whom able to sell the message with great skill or master architect turn ING the very ideas and power into form and function.

Look at Germany now, and world leaders. Find someone who can deliver a speech like back then? You won,t. No German, No brit can deliver like that.

Theres no great Churchill, or Hitler who could deliver a speech with power to drive people to those extremes and those wartime fevers.

Who gonna do it?

Merkel?
Shutz?
May, Cameron or so?

Don, t think so...

You cannot have the rise of a Nazi without the rise of Hitler, Himler, and Goerbals, speer. Etc.

Theres no charasmatic leader, no one able to easily fill a rally ground of hundreds of thousands, to drive thr vision with Thete oratory. There's no war hero, no national hero, no propaganda master whom able to sell the message with great skill or master architect turn ING the very ideas and power into form and function.

I was just going to post the same thing here. The AfD has no single one, charismatic leader that would be able to pull anything off at a bigger stage. And the pathetic thing is, it's full of people who are obviously trying to hold a speech like Hitler did - and it's so very obvious, and so very sad. Björn Höcke (the one guy who said the Holocaust memorial is a shame amongst other ridiculous things) is front and foremost amongst those who seem to think they can pull off being the next Hitler - and he's been sidelined so hard even by his own party that you rarely ever hear from him these days.

The current AfD top politicians have some more charisma than the rest of the bunch, but not at the level where a rousing oratory will convince half the country to suddendly like the AfD.

 Witzkatz wrote:

You cannot have the rise of a Nazi without the rise of Hitler, Himler, and Goerbals, speer. Etc.

Theres no charasmatic leader, no one able to easily fill a rally ground of hundreds of thousands, to drive thr vision with Thete oratory. There's no war hero, no national hero, no propaganda master whom able to sell the message with great skill or master architect turn ING the very ideas and power into form and function.

I was just going to post the same thing here. The AfD has no single one, charismatic leader that would be able to pull anything off at a bigger stage. And the pathetic thing is, it's full of people who are obviously trying to hold a speech like Hitler did - and it's so very obvious, and so very sad. Björn Höcke (the one guy who said the Holocaust memorial is a shame amongst other ridiculous things) is front and foremost amongst those who seem to think they can pull off being the next Hitler - and he's been sidelined so hard even by his own party that you rarely ever hear from him these days.

The current AfD top politicians have some more charisma than the rest of the bunch, but not at the level where a rousing oratory will convince half the country to suddendly like the AfD.

You don't need a charismatic leader to send a nation on the road to hell.

If you know your 1920s German history, then you'll know that Conservative elements, especially in the army, were out to destroy the Weimar Republic from day 1, long before Hitler became a major player in German politics.

As I've said before, AfD don't need to win - just by panicking the ruling class, and changing the narrative, already gives them a 'victory' of sorts.

UKIP, another minority party in the UK, were able to panic the much larger Conservative party into holding an EU referendum. The rest is history.

If AfD get the mainstream parties talking tough on immigration, then AfD have achieved their goals...

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


UKIP, another minority party in the UK, were able to panic the much larger Conservative party into holding an EU referendum. The rest is history.

It then collapsed in on itself and lost most of it's vote share, becoming more of a joke than it started.

These populist / single party groups tend to disintegrate as soon as they have to do anything except shout soundbites from the sidelines.

Oh, they are changing the topics of the mainstream parties. Many columnists have correctly pointed out that the AfD hogged the topic of immigration for themselves, and they gained so many votes because no other party was going to touch it. Now that they are far above 10%, you hear very different notes from CDU mostly about immigration.

Nevertheless, it could also be said that the AfD was kind of a logical conclusion of an overall shift to the left in German politics - people complained that the traditionally opposed conservative CDU and social-democratic SPD were suddendly interchangeable on so many positions that they ran out of viable options to really have a decision on as a voter.

As an example: The CDU had put forward a notion about defining German as the definite national language of Germany back in the 90s. For some reason or the other, it didn't go through, without much hubbub as far as I remember.

Recently, the AfD wanted to define German as the national language. Suddendly CDU (amongst all other parties) are laughing at the AfD for trying to "enshrine their own petty German-ness into law" and viewing this as a folly to even suggest.

Just to show one quick example of how the CDU shifted on the left-right scale in the last years, mostly under Merkel, and mostly since she started her famous "We can do it!" approach to the refugee crisis.