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 Necros wrote:
Couldn't they pump the water out somehow? Drilling worked in Chile but isn't it a lot farther and not mapped well enough so it's easy to miss? Or could they drill horizontally and make a tunnel that's above the water line?

They are already pumping out the water. I think their biggest hope is now that it will stay dry long enough for them to be able to pump out enough water to allow the boys to crawl out again. Drilling a horizontal tunnel is technically possible, but it would take too much time.

Though I do wonder if they couldn't widen the narrow passages with blasting charges. Probably don't want to risk a cave-in.

beast_gts wrote:

 djones520 wrote:
Yeah, the SEAL's were saying it was a very tough, dangerous dive, and you don't get more expert on that type of thing then SEAL's. There is no great option here.

And the RTN SEALs themselves called in international experts who had previously dived those caves before attempting it - the group that found them had a Brit in it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:


(From the BBC

British adventurers were the first to respond, and the first to arrive.

That´s why spelunking is dangerous. The same goes for mountaineering. You must be very bored or suicidal to have such hobbies.

Or just have a realistic understanding of the risk. Spelunking/caving is usually a fairly safe activity assuming proper training. Between the US, Mexico, and Canada only about 5-10 people die in caving accidents per year, and the majority of those are due to cave diving.
Here's a list of things more dangerous than caving:
Smoking
Poor eating habits
Lack of exercise
Making generalizations about people's hobbies without any real information on the topic

They have been widening some of the areas though apparently and are starting to lay down reserve oxygen tanks along the route at least

To show just how dangerous it is one rescuer died in the process...former thai seal member.

This is why imo diving should be reserved as last option to be tried if other options are even more dangerous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44734385



A former Thai navy diver has died while taking part in efforts to rescue 12 boys and their football coach trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand.

Petty Officer Saman Gunan lost consciousness on his way out of the Tham Luang cave complex, where he had been delivering air tanks.

"His job was to deliver oxygen. He did not have enough on his way back," the Chiang Rai deputy governor said.

Have to say for news coverage that some darn nice photography in the first link to details!



This map from the BB article that Beast just posted above I think goes to show how difficult and how far into the cave system they are



In short that's a very long way to travel. Its even longer if you are in a highly stressed state and scared and totally inexperienced. Taking off your tank, pushing through super tight gaps, the risk of getting stuck even for a moment could tip that panic over the edge. In addition don't forget the darkness and tightness and being underwater all at once. It might only take one torch to blink out and suddenly you're trapped, unable to move, totally untrusting in your gear, having no prior safer situation where you've wriggled through to know what to do etc.... And those around you can't even speak to you to offer the most basic reassurance because you're underwater.

All you can hear is bubbling water gurgling around your ears for what might feel like hours.

And then we are going to add the fact that these people are not swimmers, some can't even swim; not climbers or cavers and are already over a week weakened on a water diet and being scared out of their wits (I didn't see it mentioned but I'd honestly suspect that they spend the latter days of that time in total pitch black darkness - if they conserved a torch light it would only have been used sparingly.

If the cave was wide and thus they could just hold a rope and follow it along that would be an option, but this is a situation where part way they'd have to wriggle out of a tank to push it infront of them. Where they'd have to follow a twisty winding path through segments that are very tight.


Honestly I can well understand them not wanting to extract them via cave diving. If where they are is safe and they can get food, clean water and lighting to them then its far far safer that they remain where they are.
Drilling I think would be dangerous as well, they are in a tiny spot and gaining access without risking rock fall or other problems could prove to be very difficult.



Pumping out the water and blocking off as much water access is probably the best approach; even if its only to keep the level at a point where the group is safe within their current location.

 Overread wrote:
Have to say for news coverage that some darn nice photography in the first link to details!



This map from the BB article that Beast just posted above I think goes to show how difficult and how far into the cave system they are

Spoiler:

In short that's a very long way to travel. Its even longer if you are in a highly stressed state and scared and totally inexperienced. Taking off your tank, pushing through super tight gaps, the risk of getting stuck even for a moment could tip that panic over the edge. In addition don't forget the darkness and tightness and being underwater all at once. It might only take one torch to blink out and suddenly you're trapped, unable to move, totally untrusting in your gear, having no prior safer situation where you've wriggled through to know what to do etc.... And those around you can't even speak to you to offer the most basic reassurance because you're underwater.

All you can hear is bubbling water gurgling around your ears for what might feel like hours.

And then we are going to add the fact that these people are not swimmers, some can't even swim; not climbers or cavers and are already over a week weakened on a water diet and being scared out of their wits (I didn't see it mentioned but I'd honestly suspect that they spend the latter days of that time in total pitch black darkness - if they conserved a torch light it would only have been used sparingly.

If the cave was wide and thus they could just hold a rope and follow it along that would be an option, but this is a situation where part way they'd have to wriggle out of a tank to push it infront of them. Where they'd have to follow a twisty winding path through segments that are very tight.


Honestly I can well understand them not wanting to extract them via cave diving. If where they are is safe and they can get food, clean water and lighting to them then its far far safer that they remain where they are.
Drilling I think would be dangerous as well, they are in a tiny spot and gaining access without risking rock fall or other problems could prove to be very difficult.



Pumping out the water and blocking off as much water access is probably the best approach; even if its only to keep the level at a point where the group is safe within their current location.

Well, at least they should be quite used to being underground in total darkness by now, so I highly doubt that will lead to sudden panic. They also got into the cave, so they squeezed through those narrow passages before. The only problem is of course that now they would have to do parts of it while underwater. But they will be attached to a guide as well as a rope leading them out. Furthermore, they are being fed to regain their strength and appear quite calm rather than frightened.
It would still be incredibly dangerous, as shown very well by the death of the diver, but it could possibly be done if there was no other option. But for now they are hoping they can pump out enough water as it appears it will stay dry until Sunday.

Good news of sort. They have found promising alternative tunnel they hope might lead to the kids.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44734385



A former Thai navy diver has died while taking part in efforts to rescue 12 boys and their football coach trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand.

Petty Officer Saman Gunan lost consciousness on his way out of the Tham Luang cave complex, where he had been delivering air tanks.

"His job was to deliver oxygen. He did not have enough on his way back," the Chiang Rai deputy governor said.

Too bad Sarge Sam whom pursues 'teach them to dive' did not make it out alive. He had been RTN SEAL member until 2006 where he resigned in favor for his new job in Suvannabhumi International Airport. not doing diving for long, he returned to SEAL as volunteer and he believed his contribution works.

the proposal to evacuate kids through diving must be revised. (and at best not to be pursued)... as predicted (and warned) by former US Navy SEAL member Cade Courtley . https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/984406/Thai-cave-rescue-Thailand-football-team-latest-update-navy-seal-fatality-prediction-video

safer ways is to pursue 'Dry Seasons Evacuations'--resupply those kids until the cave is dry enough to evacuate.
Elon Musk did offer yet a different proposals, all based on his corporate techs.

As a spelunker myself, I must say, that anyone here advocating diving as a valid option doesn't know what he's talking about. I know spelunking instructors that won't ever dive in fully flooded tunnel... If this cave tight spots require you to take off canister, then "attaching boys to a guide rope" or some sort of "tandem dive" with a rescuer is not an option - even in dry tight places it is usually impossible to assist anyone. Add to that scuba gear and 5-10 cm visibility (very typical cave diving conditions) and you can see why this SEAL run out of oxygen.

Divers are there to provide resupply options for the boys, not to bring them back to the surface and that was clear to anyone with any real cave experience.

nou wrote:
As a spelunker myself, I must say, that anyone here advocating diving as a valid option doesn't know what he's talking about. I know spelunking instructors that won't ever dive in fully flooded tunnel... If this cave tight spots require you to take off canister, then "attaching boys to a guide rope" or some sort of "tandem dive" with a rescuer is not an option - even in dry tight places it is usually impossible to assist anyone. Add to that scuba gear and 5-10 cm visibility (very typical cave diving conditions) and you can see why this SEAL run out of oxygen.

Divers are there to provide resupply options for the boys, not to bring them back to the surface and that was clear to anyone with any real cave experience.

Only scenario i can see that as hail mary pass option if new storm makes realistic danger caves will be flooded so bad staying there is drowning quaranteed. Then boys have nothing to lose trying but another thing how many if any survives :/

Drilling would probably be safsr at that point. If waters rise, I assume the current would get very swift. Weakened kids swimming against a current is bad enough. In a tight cave system? Suicide for them or anybody trying to help them.

I just read that the route the divers have to take to get to the boys is five hours. Yikes

But now they're running low on oxygen. There might be no truly safe options...

Really hoping they can get them all out safely! (Or keep them safe where they are, but the oxygen issue is a scary one)

 Dreadwinter wrote:
Drilling would probably be safsr at that point. If waters rise, I assume the current would get very swift. Weakened kids swimming against a current is bad enough. In a tight cave system? Suicide for them or anybody trying to help them.

Drilling is not really a realistic option. Not with the limited time they have.

I wonder if its possible to run a single pipe to run air that far? AT the very least that would reduce the number of runs needing to be made (food would still be needed but at least not big heavy air tanks).

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Dreadwinter wrote:
Drilling would probably be safsr at that point. If waters rise, I assume the current would get very swift. Weakened kids swimming against a current is bad enough. In a tight cave system? Suicide for them or anybody trying to help them.

Drilling is not really a realistic option. Not with the limited time they have.

There are no good options here. But diving risks doubling the casualties. That is assuming each child has somebody with them helping. Then when they are moving them out, if say a child were to die in a bad spot, they would then have to move the body to keep it from blocking others. Which could take time, energy, and oxygen.

Pumping out the water and doing their best to block any more getting in is their best bet. Second to that, drilling.

 Overread wrote:
I wonder if its possible to run a single pipe to run air that far? AT the very least that would reduce the number of runs needing to be made (food would still be needed but at least not big heavy air tanks).

They are trying to install a 5 km long oxygen line. But earlier efforts to install a line failed, so it remains to be seen whether they will be able to get it ready in time.

 Dreadwinter wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Dreadwinter wrote:
Drilling would probably be safsr at that point. If waters rise, I assume the current would get very swift. Weakened kids swimming against a current is bad enough. In a tight cave system? Suicide for them or anybody trying to help them.

Drilling is not really a realistic option. Not with the limited time they have.

There are no good options here. But diving risks doubling the casualties. That is assuming each child has somebody with them helping. Then when they are moving them out, if say a child were to die in a bad spot, they would then have to move the body to keep it from blocking others. Which could take time, energy, and oxygen.

Pumping out the water and doing their best to block any more getting in is their best bet. Second to that, drilling.

No, drilling is simply not possible. They have already abandoned that idea altogether. There just is not enough time to install the equipment and drill a kilometer-deep hole before Sunday, which is when the cave is likely going to be flooded entirely and the boys will drown. However, they have been combing out the jungle for other tunnels, and they may have discovered an alternative entrance.

Minor note: they are probably not using pure oxygen tanks for the dives or pumping it in. Medical oxygen (~97%) causes CNS convulsions (siezures) past about 25 feet deep, and risks burning the children to death if there was so much as a bad elecrtical connection in a flashlight. I'd assume they're using air, maybe trimix if there are extended deep sections.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Overread wrote:
I wonder if its possible to run a single pipe to run air that far? AT the very least that would reduce the number of runs needing to be made (food would still be needed but at least not big heavy air tanks).

They are trying to install a 5 km long oxygen line. But earlier efforts to install a line failed, so it remains to be seen whether they will be able to get it ready in time.

 Dreadwinter wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Dreadwinter wrote:
Drilling would probably be safsr at that point. If waters rise, I assume the current would get very swift. Weakened kids swimming against a current is bad enough. In a tight cave system? Suicide for them or anybody trying to help them.

Drilling is not really a realistic option. Not with the limited time they have.

There are no good options here. But diving risks doubling the casualties. That is assuming each child has somebody with them helping. Then when they are moving them out, if say a child were to die in a bad spot, they would then have to move the body to keep it from blocking others. Which could take time, energy, and oxygen.

Pumping out the water and doing their best to block any more getting in is their best bet. Second to that, drilling.

No, drilling is simply not possible. They have already abandoned that idea altogether. There just is not enough time to install the equipment and drill a kilometer-deep hole before Sunday, which is when the cave is likely going to be flooded entirely and the boys will drown. However, they have been combing out the jungle for other tunnels, and they may have discovered an alternative entrance.

Cool story Iron_Captain. I mean it is 100% untrue, but cool story anyways.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thai-cave-rescue-team-may-be-able-to-drill-down-to-reach-boys-says-engineer

Well lets be fair now. Drilling through the mountain in a single borehole isn't on the cards; what they are talking about there is clearing a boulder/tunnel which might open up a cave network that will lead to the trapped boys.

It sounds like, at the time of writing (7 hours ago on that article) they are still investigating if the tunnel connects up.

Looking at that map above, the part marked "Smallest section of tunnel" is giving me mild panic just looking at the diagram. I would never have made it through that section on the way in (presumably when it was dry), never mind trying to get through it underwater, in pitch darkness.

 Overread wrote:
I wonder if its possible to run a single pipe to run air that far? AT the very least that would reduce the number of runs needing to be made (food would still be needed but at least not big heavy air tanks).

Yes but the quite sudden depletion of oxygen contents in the cave is due to the water draining units became temporaily malfunctioned... covered up in Thai news agencies. (And so much pressure to evacuate the cave ASAP (including FIFA, which prepared a 13 VIP seats for those survivors in Russia 2018 Worldcup Final !) too much pressure to apply safer methods).

 Dreadwinter wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Overread wrote:
I wonder if its possible to run a single pipe to run air that far? AT the very least that would reduce the number of runs needing to be made (food would still be needed but at least not big heavy air tanks).

They are trying to install a 5 km long oxygen line. But earlier efforts to install a line failed, so it remains to be seen whether they will be able to get it ready in time.

 Dreadwinter wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Dreadwinter wrote:
Drilling would probably be safsr at that point. If waters rise, I assume the current would get very swift. Weakened kids swimming against a current is bad enough. In a tight cave system? Suicide for them or anybody trying to help them.

Drilling is not really a realistic option. Not with the limited time they have.

There are no good options here. But diving risks doubling the casualties. That is assuming each child has somebody with them helping. Then when they are moving them out, if say a child were to die in a bad spot, they would then have to move the body to keep it from blocking others. Which could take time, energy, and oxygen.

Pumping out the water and doing their best to block any more getting in is their best bet. Second to that, drilling.

No, drilling is simply not possible. They have already abandoned that idea altogether. There just is not enough time to install the equipment and drill a kilometer-deep hole before Sunday, which is when the cave is likely going to be flooded entirely and the boys will drown. However, they have been combing out the jungle for other tunnels, and they may have discovered an alternative entrance.

Cool story Iron_Captain. I mean it is 100% untrue, but cool story anyways.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thai-cave-rescue-team-may-be-able-to-drill-down-to-reach-boys-says-engineer

Ah. I had read an earlier story in which said they had stopped their drilling efforts because it was too dangerous. I did not know there had been an update.
Still, I don't think it is likely they will drill a hole from above all the way in. Admittedly I know little of drilling at such depths, but afaik you would not be able to get that done by Sunday. The alternative entrance does sound promising though.

 AndrewGPaul wrote:
Looking at that map above, the part marked "Smallest section of tunnel" is giving me mild panic just looking at the diagram. I would never have made it through that section on the way in (presumably when it was dry), never mind trying to get through it underwater, in pitch darkness.

Agreed. Does that means the kids went through that to escape rising water, in the dark? How the hell did they manage to stay together?

Could they get some good coal minors in there to kick ass and widen openings to get them out?

 Frazzled wrote:

 AndrewGPaul wrote:
Looking at that map above, the part marked "Smallest section of tunnel" is giving me mild panic just looking at the diagram. I would never have made it through that section on the way in (presumably when it was dry), never mind trying to get through it underwater, in pitch darkness.

Agreed. Does that means the kids went through that to escape rising water, in the dark? How the hell did they manage to stay together?

Could they get some good coal minors in there to kick ass and widen openings to get them out?

Ths reminds me of one anecdote: there was once a cave exploration in Poland, that reached a possible opening of the new cave section, but the opening was too small (rather symbolic canal really). So my fellow spelunking instructor invited a mining team to help them widen this opening, but miners freaked out because caves are not pitproped. Habits do die very hard...

It sounds like they are hoping they found an alternate passage and they want to drill it out to make it accessible. That would probably be the safest way, assuming the cave system is stable enough to handle that kind of heavy machinery. Drilling inside the cave is going to be real interesting and tricky.

Seems like the attempt to get an oxygen cable into the cave was unsuccessful. Also, it has started to rain...

Also, the boys apparently have a lot of experience with this cave. They went into it to explore it many times, at times even farther in than where they are stuck now. Well, I guess that they won't be going back anymore if they survive this ordeal.

nou wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 AndrewGPaul wrote:
Looking at that map above, the part marked "Smallest section of tunnel" is giving me mild panic just looking at the diagram. I would never have made it through that section on the way in (presumably when it was dry), never mind trying to get through it underwater, in pitch darkness.

Agreed. Does that means the kids went through that to escape rising water, in the dark? How the hell did they manage to stay together?

Could they get some good coal minors in there to kick ass and widen openings to get them out?

Ths reminds me of one anecdote: there was once a cave exploration in Poland, that reached a possible opening of the new cave section, but the opening was too small (rather symbolic canal really). So my fellow spelunking instructor invited a mining team to help them widen this opening, but miners freaked out because caves are not pitproped. Habits do die very hard...

Most miners are not trained to work in those conditions with alot of water to. Plus that's more bodies using up oxygen in the Cave system..

Ita a tricky balence.