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There's a toooooon of things to sort through here and Ive barely begun to scratch the surface as Im reading, but I believe this represents the most comprehensive look at the nascent 9th edition meta so far.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/10/02 16:35:37
Jesus that's shocking and I went in expecting it....
Great article!
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
very intersting read. From non math personal expiriance, I can attest that the difference between going first and second as GK is like playing two different armies. So the 63% to 39% win ratio makes sense for very good players.
If you have to kill, then kill in the best manner. If you slaughter, then slaughter in the best manner. Let one of you sharpen his knife so his animal feels no pain.
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Oh I'm sorry. You must be new here. I have been told many times now that there is no 1st turn advantage and that anyone stating such must be using "wrong tactics for 9th" because "you really do need to keep up with the times".
Seriously though - yeah, that's eye opening, and, as I said when the first tourney results started rolling out, I only expect that issue to worsen. I'm not sure that's a problem the codexes can make better ...
Edit: I just googled ablutions and apparently it does not including dropping a duece. I should have looked it up early sorry for any confusion. - Baldsmug
Psiensis on the "good old days":
"Kids these days...
... I invented the 6th Ed meta back in 3rd ed.
Wait, what were we talking about again? Did I ever tell you about the time I gave you five bees for a quarter? That's what you'd say in those days, "give me five bees for a quarter", is what you'd say in those days. And you'd go down to the D&D shop, with an onion in your belt, 'cause that was the style of the time. So there I was in the D&D shop..."
Mixzremixzd wrote: Skimming through the data and all that jumps out to me is goodness gracious are Necrons getting a train ran over them...
That new Codex can't come soon enough.
Tau are faring even worse, rock bottom in basically every stat.
- 36% win rate. 49% if going first, 25% (!!!) if going second. Last, second to last and last in these rankings, respectively.
- least favorable matchups (2)
- second to last in avg points scored (42.9), second to last in avg points scored in primary (23.3) and last in secondaries (19.6)
- largest difference in avg points scored versus points conceded per match (-10.8), both in primary (-7.0) and secondaries (-3.8)
Mixzremixzd wrote: Skimming through the data and all that jumps out to me is goodness gracious are Necrons getting a train ran over them...
That new Codex can't come soon enough.
Tau are faring even worse, rock bottom in basically every stat.
- 36% win rate. 49% if going first, 25% (!!!) if going second. Last, second to last and last in these rankings, respectively.
- least favorable matchups (2)
- second to last in avg points scored (42.9), second to last in avg points scored in primary (23.3) and last in secondaries (19.6)
- largest difference in avg points scored versus points conceded per match (-10.8), both in primary (-7.0) and secondaries (-3.8)
Tau were relying on rules that no longer exist to be good in 8th so that's not much of a surprise either.
Yeah. T'au really are rock bottom at the moment, almost nothing going for them.
Their new dex had better bring with it some real nice changes.
Other than that, I read the article earlier, and by god is it a lot of data. Great breakdown by goonhammer, I wonder what GW will do to try and tone down T1? It was a problem near the start of 8th, it's now returned as a dif beast. Only thing I see is adjusting secondaries/missions.
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Seeing we are talking about resin which has lower profit margin than plastic expect tons of nerfs. Gw has vested interest in making sure players don't buy fw, just collectors. That's how even units not appearing at tournament got 300% price hikes or how "i lose automatically" models have got price increase
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Oh I'm sorry. You must be new here. I have been told many times now that there is no 1st turn advantage and that anyone stating such must be using "wrong tactics for 9th" because "you really do need to keep up with the times".
Seriously though - yeah, that's eye opening, and, as I said when the first tourney results started rolling out, I only expect that issue to worsen. I'm not sure that's a problem the codexes can make better ...
Who has said so?
Seeing how 9e went away with all anti 1st turn protections 8e had got and made los easier to gain it was fairly inevitable
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/10/02 22:59:13
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Seeing we are talking about resin which has lower profit margin than plastic expect tons of nerfs. Gw has vested interest in making sure players don't buy fw, just collectors. That's how even units not appearing at tournament got 300% price hikes or how "i lose automatically" models have got price increase
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Oh I'm sorry. You must be new here. I have been told many times now that there is no 1st turn advantage and that anyone stating such must be using "wrong tactics for 9th" because "you really do need to keep up with the times".
Seriously though - yeah, that's eye opening, and, as I said when the first tourney results started rolling out, I only expect that issue to worsen. I'm not sure that's a problem the codexes can make better ...
Who has said so?
Seeing how 9e went away with all anti 1st turn protections 8e had got and made los easier to gain it was fairly inevitable
So you do know GW owns FW now, right? Any profit to FW is profit to GW, plain and simple. I was shocked when I learned it too. But facts are facts, and GW can't sell it's gakky $70 custodes dreadnaughts, because they flat suck, so they bought the company that makes the really great $400 dollar ones. Or the $400 dollar space marine ones.
They now have a vested interest in seeing FW profit. I expect the new FW rules we be a major increase in sales.
FezzikDaBullgryn wrote: ...So you do know GW owns FW now, right? Any profit to FW is profit to GW, plain and simple. I was shocked when I learned it too. But facts are facts, and GW can't sell it's gakky $70 custodes dreadnaughts, because they flat suck, so they bought the company that makes the really great $400 dollar ones. Or the $400 dollar space marine ones.
They now have a vested interest in seeing FW profit. I expect the new FW rules we be a major increase in sales.
GW has always owned FW.
The problem is that the profit margin to GW for a FW model is worse than that for a plastic model.
Which is supposedly why they're nerfing the FW models until nobody buys them.
FezzikDaBullgryn wrote: ...So you do know GW owns FW now, right? Any profit to FW is profit to GW, plain and simple. I was shocked when I learned it too. But facts are facts, and GW can't sell it's gakky $70 custodes dreadnaughts, because they flat suck, so they bought the company that makes the really great $400 dollar ones. Or the $400 dollar space marine ones.
They now have a vested interest in seeing FW profit. I expect the new FW rules we be a major increase in sales.
GW has always owned FW.
The problem is that the profit margin to GW for a FW model is worse than that for a plastic model.
Which is supposedly why they're nerfing the FW models until nobody buys them.
If their goal was to discourage sales of fw models in order to sell more plastic models wouldn't it be easier to just stop making the fw models? No one here rails against gw's silly rules for many fw units more than me, but I just don't understand the logic of why they would want to discourage the sale of models they produce. There's lots of possible reasons for why gw insists on making certain fw units near unplayable, but I doubt it's because they don't want to sell them.
The tl;dr is just that everything we immediately spotted turns out to be true.
There is a big first turn advantage, except on the one best mission.
The secondary objects are totally spank. The lack of a kill secondary that punishes marines is in fact the problem it seemed to be, abhor is indeed as dumb as it looked, and the rest of the psychic secondaries are indeed as bad as they first appeared to be.
Engage on all fronts probably needs to be toned down. Or made less guaranteed - possibly by having the points you get ramp up over time.
On Tau, I think the problem is how assault skewed this expansion is. Which isn't something I expected to say 3 months ago, but an army with negligible assault potential has an incredibly difficult time defending/taking back primary objectives. And the fact you can be tied up even on your backfield ones by fast flyers is quite awful too.
So you are sort of reduced to this negative back-line attrition, which *may* work if you go first and roll sufficiently hot that enough of your opponent's stuff will die each turn that they can never just blob up and claim 15 primary points a turn while you get 5 or even 0 over turns 2 and 3, effectively ending the game right there. Its more or less impossible if you go second, hence the terrible win rate, which is probably when the dice kick off in a ludicrous fashion.
There are lots of things you could do, but a 15%~ points reduction, more or less across the board, would probably be my starting point.
Tyel wrote: Engage on all fronts probably needs to be toned down. Or made less guaranteed - possibly by having the points you get ramp up over time.
On Tau, I think the problem is how assault skewed this expansion is. Which isn't something I expected to say 3 months ago, but an army with negligible assault potential has an incredibly difficult time defending/taking back primary objectives. And the fact you can be tied up even on your backfield ones by fast flyers is quite awful too.
So you are sort of reduced to this negative back-line attrition, which *may* work if you go first and roll sufficiently hot that enough of your opponent's stuff will die each turn that they can never just blob up and claim 15 primary points a turn while you get 5 or even 0 over turns 2 and 3, effectively ending the game right there. Its more or less impossible if you go second, hence the terrible win rate, which is probably when the dice kick off in a ludicrous fashion.
There are lots of things you could do, but a 15%~ points reduction, more or less across the board, would probably be my starting point.
7th ed jump-shoot-jump (as a datasheet ability for JET PACK BATTLESUIT models) would be a good start and getting one third of the Rising Crescendo rule that Harlequins get (fall back + shoot) would also help a lot.
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Seeing we are talking about resin which has lower profit margin than plastic expect tons of nerfs. Gw has vested interest in making sure players don't buy fw, just collectors. That's how even units not appearing at tournament got 300% price hikes or how "i lose automatically" models have got price increase
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Oh I'm sorry. You must be new here. I have been told many times now that there is no 1st turn advantage and that anyone stating such must be using "wrong tactics for 9th" because "you really do need to keep up with the times".
Seriously though - yeah, that's eye opening, and, as I said when the first tourney results started rolling out, I only expect that issue to worsen. I'm not sure that's a problem the codexes can make better ...
Who has said so?
Seeing how 9e went away with all anti 1st turn protections 8e had got and made los easier to gain it was fairly inevitable
So you do know GW owns FW now, right? Any profit to FW is profit to GW, plain and simple. I was shocked when I learned it too. But facts are facts, and GW can't sell it's gakky $70 custodes dreadnaughts, because they flat suck, so they bought the company that makes the really great $400 dollar ones. Or the $400 dollar space marine ones.
They now have a vested interest in seeing FW profit. I expect the new FW rules we be a major increase in sales.
Uh they have always owned...
But if i pay 100 to plastic the pure profit gw gets is bigger with automated plastic production with cheaper material than with material that costs more and crucially involves manual job. It's not press button and wait 10000 sprue to be completed.
It's not who owns what. It's how much gw gets pure profit.
Or in so simple terms even toddlers understand. If it pays 1e to produce and you sell for 100 or it costs 60 and you sell for 100 which gives you bigger profit? I'm sure you can do math...
Resin isn't as profitable as plastic. If gw could sell as many models without resin fw wouldn't exist but there are those pesky collectors who don't spam broken stuff so they need more kits to get more money from those.
But gw has shown for years when they make rules for resin they suck. They want to maximize profit aed every resin dread is less profit than plastic.
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Seeing we are talking about resin which has lower profit margin than plastic expect tons of nerfs. Gw has vested interest in making sure players don't buy fw, just collectors. That's how even units not appearing at tournament got 300% price hikes or how "i lose automatically" models have got price increase
9th's 1st turn win problem benefits factions that don't even have their FW codecies yet....Just wait till we see what Custodes get in the FW codex updates!
Oh I'm sorry. You must be new here. I have been told many times now that there is no 1st turn advantage and that anyone stating such must be using "wrong tactics for 9th" because "you really do need to keep up with the times".
Seriously though - yeah, that's eye opening, and, as I said when the first tourney results started rolling out, I only expect that issue to worsen. I'm not sure that's a problem the codexes can make better ...
Who has said so?
Seeing how 9e went away with all anti 1st turn protections 8e had got and made los easier to gain it was fairly inevitable
So you do know GW owns FW now, right? Any profit to FW is profit to GW, plain and simple. I was shocked when I learned it too. But facts are facts, and GW can't sell it's gakky $70 custodes dreadnaughts, because they flat suck, so they bought the company that makes the really great $400 dollar ones. Or the $400 dollar space marine ones.
They now have a vested interest in seeing FW profit. I expect the new FW rules we be a major increase in sales.
Uh they have always owned...
But if i pay 100 to plastic the pure profit gw gets is bigger with automated plastic production with cheaper material than with material that costs more and crucially involves manual job. It's not press button and wait 10000 sprue to be completed.
It's not who owns what. It's how much gw gets pure profit.
Or in so simple terms even toddlers understand. If it pays 1e to produce and you sell for 100 or it costs 60 and you sell for 100 which gives you bigger profit? I'm sure you can do math...
Resin isn't as profitable as plastic. If gw could sell as many models without resin fw wouldn't exist but there are those pesky collectors who don't spam broken stuff so they need more kits to get more money from those.
But gw has shown for years when they make rules for resin they suck. They want to maximize profit aed every resin dread is less profit than plastic.
For this theory to hold up, They would probably need to be making all the models in Plastic. And smaller runs of things in resin are much smarter as the sales needed are less even if you dont Get as much for each model as profit.
I think its just often that GW is a large company with a lot of management effectively clueless about the thing they sell and dont want to learn.
also lol that space marine win %. And the necron win % going first and second. Seems like playing necron is , in that regard, like playing GK, practicaly if you go second you play a different army. And over 20% difference in win ratio is big for the same army.
If you have to kill, then kill in the best manner. If you slaughter, then slaughter in the best manner. Let one of you sharpen his knife so his animal feels no pain.
Marines are not above everyone else, despite what some people like to say about it.
I wonder how people who normally argue that balance on a high competitive level is more important than in casual play, would rate the relative strength of Marines now.
Designer's Note: Hardened Veterans can be represented by any Imperial Guard models, but we've really included them to allow players to practise their skills at making a really unique and individual unit. Because of this we won't be making models to represent many of the options allowed to a Veteran squad - it's up to you to convert the models. (Imperial Guard, 3rd Edition)
Yeah, competitive meta is very healthy with the exception of the going first problem. Thats a BIG problem, you can't accept every faction in the game barring 4 having a bigger than 10%(most even higher than 15%) difference in winrate by going first or second.
Marines still feel oppresive agaisnt "casual lists" but that gap will disappear when other factions receive their 9th codex.
Sadly after that then we will have marine codex 4.0 and they'll jump again to the top.
Dakka does have White Knights and is also rather infamous for it's Black Knights. A new edition brings out the passionate and not all of them are good at expressing themselves in written form. There have been plenty of hysterical responses from both sides so far. So we descend into pointless bickering with neither side listening to each other. So posting here becomes more masturbation than conversation.
ERJAK wrote: Forcing a 40k player to keep playing 7th is basically a hate crime.
Marines are not above everyone else, despite what some people like to say about it.
I wonder how people who normally argue that balance on a high competitive level is more important than in casual play, would rate the relative strength of Marines now.
Yeah except that's not what it proves when Marines Fight Marines aka 40% of their games statistics mean that they have a 50% win ratio regardless, this depresses the overall results.
To compair marines to non marines you have to remove all the chapters and check the ratio versus the field.
Supliment spam and the insistence that they be tracked seperately destroyed win ratio as a meaningful measure for marines.
Galas wrote: Yeah, competitive meta is very healthy with the exception of the going first problem. Thats a BIG problem, you can't accept every faction in the game barring 4 having a bigger than 10%(most even higher than 15%) difference in winrate by going first or second.
Marines still feel oppresive agaisnt "casual lists" but that gap will disappear when other factions receive their 9th codex.
Sadly after that then we will have marine codex 4.0 and they'll jump again to the top.
Maybe after 2 years of being bottom again. Yet...none of the marine haters will ever admit it. LOL.
Marines are not above everyone else, despite what some people like to say about it.
I wonder how people who normally argue that balance on a high competitive level is more important than in casual play, would rate the relative strength of Marines now.
Yeah except that's not what it proves when Marines Fight Marines aka 40% of their games statistics mean that they have a 50% win ratio regardless, this depresses the overall results.
To compair marines to non marines you have to remove all the chapters and check the ratio versus the field.
Supliment spam and the insistence that they be tracked seperately destroyed win ratio as a meaningful measure for marines.
Marines fight marines is only relevant when its a mirror like ultras vs ultras. Let me tell you how exceedingly rare that is there are like 6 popular chapters - they are separate armies which often as much difference as vanilla vs chaos. All that could really do with a mirror match is bring you close to 50% anyways - a losing win rate is actually worse as the result of mirror matches.,. A lot of times they correct for mirrors though. As in - a losing marine chapter would actually have a worse win rate if you removed the mirror matches.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2020/10/30 20:06:18
If we fail to anticipate the unforeseen or expect the unexpected in a universe of infinite possibilities, we may find ourselves at the mercy of anyone or anything that cannot be programmed, categorized or easily referenced.
- Fox Mulder
Dakka does have White Knights and is also rather infamous for it's Black Knights. A new edition brings out the passionate and not all of them are good at expressing themselves in written form. There have been plenty of hysterical responses from both sides so far. So we descend into pointless bickering with neither side listening to each other. So posting here becomes more masturbation than conversation.
ERJAK wrote: Forcing a 40k player to keep playing 7th is basically a hate crime.
