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0.3 wounds per anti-tank weapon more is not exactly the end of the world.
It's a dice game - constructing your army and tactics around rolling above average is folly.
I'm glad that the dice seem to favour you, but my own personal FNP saves look more like passing 1 in 10.
I'd rather take consistent buffs that I can build around than the fickle whims of fortune. Especially if I were to be betting against the odds.
There is actually quite little difference between -1D and 5+++ against D6 weapons.
In the first case a D6 weapon averages 2,66 wounds, in the second one it averages 2,31.
Is it a nerf? Yes.
Is it a big one? Not at all.
Against D2 is better, against D3 is identical, against Dd3 is identical (1,33 average wounds).
So you have lost a little bit of durability against D6 weapons. There is NOTHING in that definition which makes those tanks glass.
To really get some meaningful differences, you need to be shot at with some of the new D3+3 weapons, in which case you now suffer 21% more damage.
If a d6 weapon rolls a 6 on an unsave wound, it will now take 5. Period.
Under the old rules, it would usually take 3-4. I don't care what statistics say, those are the actual numbers in practice, based on 40+ games during 8th.
Add the fact that you get no buff at all against D1 weapons.
We've lost A LOT of duration against D1 weapons, and in prectice about 40% against D6 weapons.
Jidmah wrote: Losing a wound on the drone is a buff because it no longer degrades.
Yes. It also dies faster. Especially with the loss of FNP.
But I do agree that over all, the drop of a wound is a buff.
However, it did lose melee capabilities.
The flamer is better, and so is the BS.
However, it's won't be nearly the bullet sink it used to be.
Statistically it's less of a bullet sink against anything with damage 4 or higher or D1, the same against D3 and better against D2. The question then becomes what weapons are you more likely to be defending against? I think the new DR rules give Deathguard a big advantage with the way the current meta is going as it's generally most effective against D2 weapons which are becoming very prevalent.
We also have no idea on the points costs yet. What we do know is that DG stuff is going to be more resilient than equivalent units in other armies thanks to generally having +1T and DR, or in the case of vehicles having a lot of 5++ saves. That seems fluffy to me and gives the DG a niche they fill. Of course, they could be terrible if GW overpoints them by a lot, but equally they may be hugely broken if they're too cheap. We just don't know yet.
Yes, statistically FNP saves two out of 6 wounds. However, it's way more common it saves more than that.
What weapons are more likely to shoot at my drones? D1 and D6 weapons.
If they stay at the exact same points, they'll be over costed. If they get 50p cheaper, they're hilariously broken. A discount of 10-15 points are very much needed.
Buuuuuut it's GW ´we're talking about here. They'll probably increase their points by 10-20.
Ok, this is getting painful.
Please. Learn. Math.
I agree.
Please. Learn. The. Difference. Between. Theory. And. Practice.
Who on earth is rapid firing 5 full intercessor squads into a single blight drone. Then proclaiming it bad when it only loses 7.4 wounds.
Please go look at other units in other armies, battlescribe is good for a brief over view. Nobody is regularly firing 6 damage shots into a small-mid size vehicle unless that's the biggest thing in your army.
Those 7.4 wounds used to be 4.9. I can't understand how you think that's not a nerf, or even bad when you compare it.
Well, Drones, blighthaulers and Rhinos ARE the biggest things in MY regular army list. I rarely take Mortarion, and I dislike the mortars with a passion. The same goes for Defiler (who actually might have gotter straight better with the new codex) and the useless Helbrute.
Sure the Daemon Prince might be better and scarier, but you can't shoot him, so.
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kirotheavenger wrote: "my personal perception of a limited data set is more reliable than the field of statistics and maths, on which the world is based"
If we're saying that doesn't matter, for all you know every single damage roll with come up a 2 from now on. It's about as useful a discussion point.
Yes, you are totally correct. Theory and practice are always the exact same thing. That's why you never have to try stuff that works on paper.
Let's address this the other way round, beyond the fact you'd be making poor decisions firing 100 rounds at a drone, why is your opponent not killing a 155 point model with 1000 points of firepower not good enough. Forget that they do marginally less damage. Is that durable enough?
There is actually quite little difference between -1D and 5+++ against D6 weapons.
In the first case a D6 weapon averages 2,66 wounds, in the second one it averages 2,31.
Is it a nerf? Yes.
Is it a big one? Not at all.
Against D2 is better, against D3 is identical, against Dd3 is identical (1,33 average wounds).
So you have lost a little bit of durability against D6 weapons. There is NOTHING in that definition which makes those tanks glass.
To really get some meaningful differences, you need to be shot at with some of the new D3+3 weapons, in which case you now suffer 21% more damage.
Never trust anyone's math who is not showing their work Against d6 you have Rolled 1 => .6666 => 1 => 50% increase in damage taken Rolled 2 => 1.3333 => 1 => 25% reduction in damage taken Rolled 3 => 2 => 2 => 0% increase in damage taken Rolled 4 => 2.6666 => 3 => 12.5% increase in damage taken Rolled 5 => 3.3333 => 4 => 20% increase in damage taken Rolled 6 => 4 => 5 => 25% increase in damage taken Average => 13.75% increase of damage taken
Against d6+2 Rolled 1 (3 damage) => 2 => 2 => 0% increase in damage taken Rolled 2 (4 damage) => 2.6666 => 3 => 12.5% increase in damage taken Rolled 3 (5 damage) => 3.3333 => 4 => 20% increase in damage taken Rolled 4 (6 damage) => 4 => 5 => 25% increase in damage taken Rolled 5 (7 damage) => 4.6666 => 6 => 28.57% increase in damage taken Rolled 6 (8 damage) => 5.3333 => 7 => 31.25% increase in damage taken Average => 19.55% increase of damage taken
Against 3+d3 Rolled 1 (4 damage) => 2.6666 => 3 => 12.5% increase in damage taken Rolled 2 (5 damage) => 3.3333 => 4 => 20% increase in damage taken Rolled 3 (6 damage) => 5 => 25% increase in damage taken Average => 19.16% increase in damage taken
Amount of lost effektive health: PBC 2-3 MBH 1-2 (gained a wound) Drone 3-4 (lost a wound) DP 2-3 Mortarion 3-5 (not considering the extra +1 toughness) Defiler 2-4
So assuming that you have roughly two D1 attacks wounding a vehicle for every D2 attack(a very generous assumption, most armies have a lot less D2), you are knocking off 2-3 wounds or more of every vehicle. That is a fairly big nerf in my book, but I agree, it's not like they will be made of glass now.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 11:07:48
7 Ork facts people always get wrong: Ragnar did not win against Thrakka, but suffered two crushing defeats within a few days of each other. A lasgun is powerful enough to sever an ork's appendage or head in a single, well aimed shot. Orks meks have a better understanding of electrics and mechanics than most Tech Priests. Orks actually do not think that purple makes them harder to see. The joke was made canon by Alex Stewart's Caphias Cain books. Gharkull Blackfang did not even come close to killing the emperor. Orks can be corrupted by chaos, but few of them have any interest in what chaos offers. Orks do not have the power of believe.
"Hey, Bubonicus, is it just me or are these Bolter shells hurting a bit more today?" "I dunno Phlemaclese, but those Plasmaguns hurt half as bad now!" Chaos Rhino: Cries in having having an effective wound count of 5.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 11:09:02
BaconCatBug wrote: "Hey, Bubonicus, is it just me or are these Bolter shells hurting a bit more today?"
"I dunno Phlemaclese, but those Plasmaguns hurt half as bad now!"
Chaos Rhino: Cries in having having an effective wound count of 5.
Amount of lost effektive health:
PBC 2-3
MBH 1-2 (gained a wound)
Drone 3-4 (lost a wound)
DP 2-3
Mortarion 3-5 (not considering the extra +1 toughness)
Defiler 2-4
So assuming that you have roughly two D1 attacks wounding a vehicle for every D2 attack(a very generous assumption, most armies have a lot less D2), you are knocking off 2-3 wounds or more of every vehicle.
That is a fairly big nerf in my book, but I agree, it's not like they will be made of glass now.
Can you clarify this part? Didn't get what you were calculating.
As a BA player this is really disturbing for me. Most of my damage comes from flat 2 damage weapons and at most 4 or 5 flat 3 damage.
In practice this means that except for the few str 4 d1 bolters, that are bad against t5+ 3+ multi wound, it will be like DG got an improvement to 4+++. Add extra wounds on top and it will be a real hassle to come out on top against Death Guard units.
I like it though since it removes a ton of dice rolling that just bogs down the games. Having a 5 man unit of buffed Sanguinary Guard barely kill something due to despite them being one of the deadliest melee units in the entire game the amount of steps makes it a chore. With high toughness, good invulnerable saves and FNP you do 3! rolls to see if you damage something after you have already hit the target.
I think FNP can be a cool rule if it is used very sparingly. Like only on certain characters or maybe a special unit. Having it on entire factions and easy to get for lots of units just prolongs the time you roll dice in favor of doing more interesting actions.
Like I love rolling dice(just bought 9 D6 for 86$) but each roll after the first in a sequence gives me less and less enjoyment until it even becomes a detriment. Rerolls make it even worse. We all love rolling dice but not rolling for the sake of the rolling itself. It has to feel meaningful or there is no point. If we didnt want the rolls to have meaning you would see people advocate for even more steps and not less.
Blood Bowl is an amazing game that hinges a lot on the dice. Each and every dice you throw there feels impactful since a failure makes your turn end. At most you can roll 9-10 dice total for a single action sequence. Block(3), armor(2), injury(2) and casualty(2). But usually it is just 1 die for each action and they all matter. Not like 40k where you can throw a hundred dice and roll them a few times and in the end you did like 2 damage to a 24wound model. 40k should be more like Blood Bowl and not like current 40k with literal buckets of dice that means nothing sometimes.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 11:20:03
Dudeface wrote: Let's address this the other way round, beyond the fact you'd be making poor decisions firing 100 rounds at a drone, why is your opponent not killing a 155 point model with 1000 points of firepower not good enough. Forget that they do marginally less damage. Is that durable enough?
You keep bringing up this string of thought. Don't you want to understand that inefficient weapons shooting at something is a horrible benchmark? It's the very design of the game that intercessors should suck at killing drones, and not, that does not make the drone durable enough.
It takes roughly 500 gretchin to kill a unit of terminators. That doesn't mean that a unit of terminators should cost 2500 points. It just means that gretchin shouldn't be shooting terminators.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 11:18:08
7 Ork facts people always get wrong: Ragnar did not win against Thrakka, but suffered two crushing defeats within a few days of each other. A lasgun is powerful enough to sever an ork's appendage or head in a single, well aimed shot. Orks meks have a better understanding of electrics and mechanics than most Tech Priests. Orks actually do not think that purple makes them harder to see. The joke was made canon by Alex Stewart's Caphias Cain books. Gharkull Blackfang did not even come close to killing the emperor. Orks can be corrupted by chaos, but few of them have any interest in what chaos offers. Orks do not have the power of believe.
Dudeface wrote: Let's address this the other way round, beyond the fact you'd be making poor decisions firing 100 rounds at a drone, why is your opponent not killing a 155 point model with 1000 points of firepower not good enough. Forget that they do marginally less damage. Is that durable enough?
You keep bringing up this string of thought. Don't you want to understand that inefficient weapons shooting at something is a horrible benchmark? It's the very design of the game that intercessors should suck at killing drones, and not, that does not make the drone durable enough.
It takes roughly 500 gretchin to kill a unit of terminators. That doesn't mean that a unit of terminators should cost 2500 points. It just means that gretchin shouldn't be shooting terminators.
Lol, I would love to see that scene though.
More than killed, you would have them buried under a veritable mountain of lead.
Dudeface wrote: Let's address this the other way round, beyond the fact you'd be making poor decisions firing 100 rounds at a drone, why is your opponent not killing a 155 point model with 1000 points of firepower not good enough. Forget that they do marginally less damage. Is that durable enough?
You keep bringing up this string of thought. Don't you want to understand that inefficient weapons shooting at something is a horrible benchmark? It's the very design of the game that intercessors should suck at killing drones, and not, that does not make the drone durable enough.
It takes roughly 500 gretchin to kill a unit of terminators. That doesn't mean that a unit of terminators should cost 2500 points. It just means that gretchin shouldn't be shooting terminators.
Oh I agree, I'm trying to understand the value in the ridiculous initial statement.
Clearly Kall3m0n is playing in a very casual environment and their experiences and source data for the units seem to be centered around mass infantry firepower for whatever reason.
Its why I even prefaced my statement with "you'd be making a poor decision firing 100 bolter rounds at it". Its clearly a bad idea but complaining they're suddenly glass cannons to bolters when they eat 1000 points worth and keep ticking isn't a fair statement.
Amount of lost effektive health:
PBC 2-3
MBH 1-2 (gained a wound)
Drone 3-4 (lost a wound)
DP 2-3
Mortarion 3-5 (not considering the extra +1 toughness)
Defiler 2-4
So assuming that you have roughly two D1 attacks wounding a vehicle for every D2 attack(a very generous assumption, most armies have a lot less D2), you are knocking off 2-3 wounds or more of every vehicle.
That is a fairly big nerf in my book, but I agree, it's not like they will be made of glass now.
Can you clarify this part? Didn't get what you were calculating.
Old DR was a flat 50% increase of effective health. I divided that by extra damage taken for all three damage ranges.
For example, a DP used to have an effective health of 12 (8*150%). Is he takes 19.16% extra damage, his new effecitve health is 12/(1+0.1916)=10.07. So he lost 2 effective health against something like an entropy cannon or a doomscythe.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Dudeface wrote: Clearly Kall3m0n is playing in a very casual environment and their experiences and source data for the units seem to be centered around mass infantry firepower for whatever reason.
Its why I even prefaced my statement with "you'd be making a poor decision firing 100 bolter rounds at it". Its clearly a bad idea but complaining they're suddenly glass cannons to bolters when they eat 1000 points worth and keep ticking isn't a fair statement.
No, he is just creating a common point of reference. There are plenty of D1 weapons out there which make sense to point at drones, like a punisher, reaper auto-cannons, redemptor dreads as well as pretty much all the melee units that rely on weight of attacks, like ork boyz, gaunts or assault intercessors. His point holds true for all of them.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 11:32:43
7 Ork facts people always get wrong: Ragnar did not win against Thrakka, but suffered two crushing defeats within a few days of each other. A lasgun is powerful enough to sever an ork's appendage or head in a single, well aimed shot. Orks meks have a better understanding of electrics and mechanics than most Tech Priests. Orks actually do not think that purple makes them harder to see. The joke was made canon by Alex Stewart's Caphias Cain books. Gharkull Blackfang did not even come close to killing the emperor. Orks can be corrupted by chaos, but few of them have any interest in what chaos offers. Orks do not have the power of believe.
Klickor wrote: As a BA player this is really disturbing for me. Most of my damage comes from flat 2 damage weapons and at most 4 or 5 flat 3 damage.
In practice this means that except for the few str 4 d1 bolters, that are bad against t5+ 3+ multi wound, it will be like DG got an improvement to 4+++. Add extra wounds on top and it will be a real hassle to come out on top against Death Guard units.
To be fair as a Blood Angel player you'll be outmaneuvering Death Guard most of the time. Unless Death Guard is about to get some movement shenanigan or psychic powers they will still be affected by their slow movement.
Never trust anyone's math who is not showing their work Against d6 you have
Rolled 1 => .6666 => 1 => 50% increase in damage taken
Rolled 2 => 1.3333 => 1 => 25% reduction in damage taken
Rolled 3 => 2 => 2 => 0% increase in damage taken
Rolled 4 => 2.6666 => 3 => 12.5% increase in damage taken
Rolled 5 => 3.3333 => 4 => 20% increase in damage taken
Rolled 6 => 4 => 5 => 25% increase in damage taken
Average => 13.75% increase of damage taken
On one hand this is right - on the other, I think you need to consider some second order mathhammer, because I don't think its strictly fair to compare a certainty with a probability.
So for example on paper from a damage 3 hit, you should save 1 wound with a 5++, but then you could save more - or, about 30% of the time, you save none. So how do you value that versus "you save 1 damage full stop"?
Usually in 40k that certainty has a value over the mathematical average because you want to defend against the downside - hence why I think most people preferred 3 damage weapons they were in control of over D6 damage weapons. They could spike up to 5s and 6s, but if you got a run of 1s it could cost you the game.
Really I think one of the reasons why people hated Wave Serpents - and will hate this - is that its a "lose harder rule". There's nothing like getting 3 D6 damage hits through and then rolling a 2, 2, 3. Which becomes 1, 1, 2 and so you may as well have not bothered.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 13:32:44
Unlike for the infantry guys, I think at 8-18 wounds the number of successful rolls is very likely to be near the average.
I could do the whole standard deviation calculation, but from experience, it's not worth doing it for the three people in this thread that actually understand more complex statistics than averages.
7 Ork facts people always get wrong: Ragnar did not win against Thrakka, but suffered two crushing defeats within a few days of each other. A lasgun is powerful enough to sever an ork's appendage or head in a single, well aimed shot. Orks meks have a better understanding of electrics and mechanics than most Tech Priests. Orks actually do not think that purple makes them harder to see. The joke was made canon by Alex Stewart's Caphias Cain books. Gharkull Blackfang did not even come close to killing the emperor. Orks can be corrupted by chaos, but few of them have any interest in what chaos offers. Orks do not have the power of believe.
Jidmah wrote: Unlike for the infantry guys, I think at 8-18 wounds the number of successful rolls is very likely to be near the average.
I could do the whole standard deviation calculation, but from experience, it's not worth doing it for the three people in this thread that actually understand more complex statistics than averages.
Fair enough.
I think in rough terms - its worse once you get 5+ damage. If most multi-damage weapons become this (melta rules, general 3+D3 evolution) then it will hurt the big vehicles/monsters, all other features being equal.
But then some trade off for better weapons/BS3+ etc might justify it.
If I lose ~9 wounds across the 3 MBH and 2 PBC I brought, but I get those wounds backs spread across plague marines, terminators and an extra drone I can now bring, I can (maybe?) live with that.
After doing the math, my main issue is really DR being worthless against 1 damage weapons.
7 Ork facts people always get wrong: Ragnar did not win against Thrakka, but suffered two crushing defeats within a few days of each other. A lasgun is powerful enough to sever an ork's appendage or head in a single, well aimed shot. Orks meks have a better understanding of electrics and mechanics than most Tech Priests. Orks actually do not think that purple makes them harder to see. The joke was made canon by Alex Stewart's Caphias Cain books. Gharkull Blackfang did not even come close to killing the emperor. Orks can be corrupted by chaos, but few of them have any interest in what chaos offers. Orks do not have the power of believe.
Kall3m0n wrote: I don't care what statistics say, those are the actual numbers in practice, based on 40+ games during 8th.
Thats not how you evaluate a unit. If you'd rather use anecdotical evidence instead of look at the average result, you're always going to be dissapointed.
"OMG the dunecrawler is OP! It can do 18 damage in one shooting phase!!!!" when in reality it deals 2-3 damage most of the time.
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Slipspace wrote: Yes, it's possible that an old DG unit took 9 wounds from two d6 Damage weapons and saved 8 out of them with DR, but it's equally possible that same unit saved none.
Its actually more common for the DG to fail all their DR rolls so its purely a buff then. If were going by outliers
Automatically Appended Next Post: And now we know what the contagions of nurgle are :
Kall3m0n wrote:If i take 6dmg from a melta now, the drone will take 5 dmg. If that same drone took 6dmg from a melta with the old rules, it usually took 3-4. I don't care what the math says, I'm telling you what usually happened in practice.
Kall3m0n wrote:@Dudeface: So you think a loss in wounds and -1D is making them scarier than when they had more wounds and could shrug ALL damage?
Is it more scary and annoying to do 5 dmg than maybe none, but usually only 3-4 when rolling a six for dmg roll on a D6?
Kall3m0n wrote:If a d6 weapon rolls a 6 on an unsave wound, it will now take 5. Period.
Under the old rules, it would usually take 3-4. I don't care what statistics say, those are the actual numbers in practice, based on 40+ games during 8th.
If you can't figure out how many 5+ you would typically roll on six dice, you can't really expect anyone to take your argument seriously. This is no longer an argument based on the game; it's confirmation bias and bad grasp of statistics versus reality.
contagions are totally not an aura (not effected by things that screws with auras) while being a "passive ability" whos radius is based on turn number (1/3/6/9") and Nurgle's gift is a -1T, and same named contagions dont stack
Fortification can be set up 12" outside enemy deployment and always counts as round 4 for its contagion
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 14:36:01
"If you are forced to use your trump card, then the battle is already lost"
"You remember how VotLW was so broken it was part of the reason for us to implement caps for modifiers to the wound roll? Let's give Death Guard free VotLW with all their Bolters against all T3, T4, and T5 models, while still allowing VotLW to be used and it not being affected by the cap."
What were they thinking?
Once again, GW are going the route of adding special rules that ignore the restrictions that would normally be placed on those rules.
BaconCatBug wrote: "You remember how VotLW was so broken it was part of the reason for us to implement caps for modifiers to the wound roll? Let's give Death Guard free VotLW with all their Bolters against all T3, T4, and T5 models, while still allowing VotLW to be used and it not being affected by the cap."
What were they thinking?
Once again, GW are going the route of adding special rules that ignore the restrictions that would normally be placed on those rules.
Its got a short range, on a slow moving army..... And for all we know, VotLW could be gone or changed.
The -1 toughness ability is already in the game (skitarii vanguards) and you don't see anybody complain about it.
Its got a short range, on a slow moving army..... And for all we know, VotLW could be gone or changed.
The -1 toughness ability is already in the game (skitarii vanguards) and you don't see anybody complain about it.
skitarri cant take a fortification which i assume turns into terrain and cant be destroyed (not sure on that?) outside your opponents depolyment zone with a 9" -1T aura, and potentially take 3 and make beyond 3" outside their deployment zone unsafe across the entire board either
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 14:41:55
"If you are forced to use your trump card, then the battle is already lost"
warmaster21 wrote: my brother had built (awhile back) a dual knife plague marine squad, they suddenly got so much deadlier
going to wound my sisters/DE/Slaanesh daemons on 2's with re-roll 1's... fun
for your slaanesh demons at least you should be able to reliably get the first fight in and wipe the squad before they get to mulch you.
DE we'll see when their codex comes out.
Sisters, yeah, DR gonna suck for your repentia but your arco-flagellants + shooting should still do decent agaisnt them.
skitarri cant take a fortification which i assume turns into terrain and cant be destroyed (not sure on that?) outside your opponents deployment zone with a 9" -1T aura, and potentially take 3 and make beyond 3" outside their deployment zone unsafe across the entire board either
yeah, hadnt noticed that part, thats strong. You can detroy these fortification tho.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 14:45:31
yeah, hadnt noticed that part, thats strong. You can detroy these fortification tho.
ah thats good at least, assuming they are cheap enough its still probably worth it to draw fire away from the rest of units potentially. I figured it would be like the current trend of codex fortifications where they are just "terrian" once on the battlefield (like nurgle trees, sisters building etc etc)
"If you are forced to use your trump card, then the battle is already lost"
BaconCatBug wrote: "You remember how VotLW was so broken it was part of the reason for us to implement caps for modifiers to the wound roll? Let's give Death Guard free VotLW with all their Bolters against all T3, T4, and T5 models, while still allowing VotLW to be used and it not being affected by the cap."
What were they thinking?
Once again, GW are going the route of adding special rules that ignore the restrictions that would normally be placed on those rules.
Its got a short range, on a slow moving army..... And for all we know, VotLW could be gone or changed.
The -1 toughness ability is already in the game (skitarii vanguards) and you don't see anybody complain about it.
Until the CSM codex gets replaced, VOTLW is still a valid stratagem to use on DG units if you have a CSM detachment.
Skitarii Vanguards don't have a 9" bubble on it though, do they?
If it is a Superdoctrine though, that means VotLW is off the table, but it's still, on it's own, free VotLW on all bolter weapons.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/12/11 14:56:13
