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SemperMortis wrote:
As far as Snagga stuff getting nerfed, again, its perception is reality when it comes to Orkz. A lot of tournament meta players and podcasters PERCEIVED ork beastsnaggas to be OP, so therefore they were OP. It doesn't matter that the tournament data proved otherwise, it didn't matter nobody was taking the named beastboss on squigosaur let alone the regular one. They were PERCEIVED as being OP and therefore they had to die. I was trying to find it, but there was a youtube video review of the Beastboss on squigosaur and Mozrog skragbad by this one guy and it was hilarious because he kept losing his cool about "HOW OP" the models were...boy was he wrong.

That can be a real thing in a community, where the top players or designers are ok with certain factions being overpowered (Matt Ward with Chaos Demons in WHF, very famously) but lose their gak when other factions start racking up wins.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Orks are competent at melee.

11 Kommandoz plus Grot v Sags

Kommandos kill one 50% of the time,2 @ 32%, and 3 @ 5%. ( without the grot and one extra komando it is 1 @ 55%, 2 @ 19%, and 3 @ 1% )
Sags kill 1 @ 20%, 2 @ 32%, 3 @ 27%, 4 @ 12%, and 5 @ 3%.

That means 91% of the Sag results kill less points than 87% of the Kommandoz results. Toss in Waaagh and Goffs and they would absolutely overwhelm them.

f you had 16 Goff Boyz instead...it would be 1 @ 12%, 2 @ 38%, and 3 @ 50%. Custodes melee specialists should kill half a squad and then drop 2 to morale, which still outnumbers on obsec.

It isn't a big gap, really.

Classic daedalus math attack.
"look, this one unit in your codex with +1 to wound and a special deployment rule can kill a single model from random unit from another codex better than that unit can kill them back. All your units are great in combat, no changes needed!"

 Jidmah wrote:

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Orks are competent at melee.

11 Kommandoz plus Grot v Sags

Kommandos kill one 50% of the time,2 @ 32%, and 3 @ 5%. ( without the grot and one extra komando it is 1 @ 55%, 2 @ 19%, and 3 @ 1% )
Sags kill 1 @ 20%, 2 @ 32%, 3 @ 27%, 4 @ 12%, and 5 @ 3%.

That means 91% of the Sag results kill less points than 87% of the Kommandoz results. Toss in Waaagh and Goffs and they would absolutely overwhelm them.

f you had 16 Goff Boyz instead...it would be 1 @ 12%, 2 @ 38%, and 3 @ 50%. Custodes melee specialists should kill half a squad and then drop 2 to morale, which still outnumbers on obsec.

It isn't a big gap, really.

Classic daedalus math attack.
"look, this one unit in your codex with +1 to wound and a special deployment rule can kill a single model from random unit from another codex better than that unit can kill them back. All your units are great in combat, no changes needed!"

I mean to be fair it's not like you only attack Custodian Guard with shields in melee either, so it's not a wholly encompassing exercise.

Daed fancy comparing some bs5 orks vs bs4 orks into some common targets if you get bored please? Both with and without a -1 to hit.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Orks are competent at melee.

11 Kommandoz plus Grot v Sags

Kommandos kill one 50% of the time,2 @ 32%, and 3 @ 5%. ( without the grot and one extra komando it is 1 @ 55%, 2 @ 19%, and 3 @ 1% )
Sags kill 1 @ 20%, 2 @ 32%, 3 @ 27%, 4 @ 12%, and 5 @ 3%.

That means 91% of the Sag results kill less points than 87% of the Kommandoz results. Toss in Waaagh and Goffs and they would absolutely overwhelm them.

f you had 16 Goff Boyz instead...it would be 1 @ 12%, 2 @ 38%, and 3 @ 50%. Custodes melee specialists should kill half a squad and then drop 2 to morale, which still outnumbers on obsec.

It isn't a big gap, really.

Conveniently giving the Kommandos an upgrade that costs points and is a once a game ability while just accidentally not giving The Sag custards their FREE misericordia? 3 sag custards get 12 attacks without any other rules interactions just stats and misers. Thats 10 hits, at S5 for 5 dead Orkz. On average. So your math is to put it bluntly, useless. If you include their re-rolls they all get it works out to 6 or more and going beyond that they have easy access to even more attacks and strats and rules etc that buff that to ungodly levels. I used a unit to unit comparison without adding in any other factors and showed that they don't stand a chance. You had to strip FREE equipment from the Custards while giving the Kommandos an equipment upgrade that costs points just to make that bad math work.

Dudeface wrote:

I mean to be fair it's not like you only attack Custodian Guard with shields in melee either, so it's not a wholly encompassing exercise.

Sags don't have shields, I literally chose the SHOOTY custards to prove the point. Those SHOOTY custards out perform CC only Kommandos point for point, and that isn't even getting things involved like durability. And I promise you, a T5 1 wound 6+ save model doesn't have anywhere near the durability as a T5 3 wound 2+/4++ model.

Hecaton wrote:

SemperMortis wrote:
As far as Snagga stuff getting nerfed, again, its perception is reality when it comes to Orkz. A lot of tournament meta players and podcasters PERCEIVED ork beastsnaggas to be OP, so therefore they were OP. It doesn't matter that the tournament data proved otherwise, it didn't matter nobody was taking the named beastboss on squigosaur let alone the regular one. They were PERCEIVED as being OP and therefore they had to die. I was trying to find it, but there was a youtube video review of the Beastboss on squigosaur and Mozrog skragbad by this one guy and it was hilarious because he kept losing his cool about "HOW OP" the models were...boy was he wrong.

That can be a real thing in a community, where the top players or designers are ok with certain factions being overpowered (Matt Ward with Chaos Demons in WHF, very famously) but lose their gak when other factions start racking up wins.

Yup, unfortunately, there are always going to factions that lack strong advocates on the rules team or the test players, which inevitably skew some of the rules design and decisions to favour some armies more than others, and Orks typically fall under the "neglected" category. Not in terms of models usually, but definitely in terms of consistency for how our rules are written to bogglingly worst standards than those of other armies (i.e. specialist boyz like Trukk Boyz were RAW unplayable upon release).

 Grimskul wrote:

Hecaton wrote:

SemperMortis wrote:
As far as Snagga stuff getting nerfed, again, its perception is reality when it comes to Orkz. A lot of tournament meta players and podcasters PERCEIVED ork beastsnaggas to be OP, so therefore they were OP. It doesn't matter that the tournament data proved otherwise, it didn't matter nobody was taking the named beastboss on squigosaur let alone the regular one. They were PERCEIVED as being OP and therefore they had to die. I was trying to find it, but there was a youtube video review of the Beastboss on squigosaur and Mozrog skragbad by this one guy and it was hilarious because he kept losing his cool about "HOW OP" the models were...boy was he wrong.

That can be a real thing in a community, where the top players or designers are ok with certain factions being overpowered (Matt Ward with Chaos Demons in WHF, very famously) but lose their gak when other factions start racking up wins.

Yup, unfortunately, there are always going to factions that lack strong advocates on the rules team or the test players, which inevitably skew some of the rules design and decisions to favour some armies more than others, and Orks typically fall under the "neglected" category. Not in terms of models usually, but definitely in terms of consistency for how our rules are written to bogglingly worst standards than those of other armies (i.e. specialist boyz like Trukk Boyz were RAW unplayable upon release).

Well also the goal of the new Ork codex was to sell a lot of Snaggas. Not to make a fun codex. Good internal balance would have been against the goal.

Hecaton wrote:

 Grimskul wrote:

Hecaton wrote:

SemperMortis wrote:
As far as Snagga stuff getting nerfed, again, its perception is reality when it comes to Orkz. A lot of tournament meta players and podcasters PERCEIVED ork beastsnaggas to be OP, so therefore they were OP. It doesn't matter that the tournament data proved otherwise, it didn't matter nobody was taking the named beastboss on squigosaur let alone the regular one. They were PERCEIVED as being OP and therefore they had to die. I was trying to find it, but there was a youtube video review of the Beastboss on squigosaur and Mozrog skragbad by this one guy and it was hilarious because he kept losing his cool about "HOW OP" the models were...boy was he wrong.

That can be a real thing in a community, where the top players or designers are ok with certain factions being overpowered (Matt Ward with Chaos Demons in WHF, very famously) but lose their gak when other factions start racking up wins.

Yup, unfortunately, there are always going to factions that lack strong advocates on the rules team or the test players, which inevitably skew some of the rules design and decisions to favour some armies more than others, and Orks typically fall under the "neglected" category. Not in terms of models usually, but definitely in terms of consistency for how our rules are written to bogglingly worst standards than those of other armies (i.e. specialist boyz like Trukk Boyz were RAW unplayable upon release).

Well also the goal of the new Ork codex was to sell a lot of Snaggas. Not to make a fun codex. Good internal balance would have been against the goal.

Fair point, though it's funny that I would say only Kill Rigs and maybe Squighog Boyz were the only ones that really made most people go out and buy the new stuff.

I gave the Sag misers.

I'm not really sure its adding much - but I broadly agree with you Semper. The Professional/Competitive sphere seems to go nuts on Orks, then tries them out, find they don't play like Marines/Eldar, and ditches them. I've never understood or seen the weird hype when the 8th book dropped explained. The views of the Squigosaur (and even Kill Rig although I think it was pushed) were disproportionate to the table outcome. Certainly by the standards of the meta today - although perhaps because it was just a more competitive space even if DE were clearly undercosted and we all knew it.

The only thing I disagree with is that I think Buggies+Flyers was great for the 3ish months after the Snagga Box until they nerfed everything. If you go through a list of GTs (winners and top 4s) in that period, I think Orks are comfortably 3rd Army after DE and Ad Mech - and its overwhelmingly that buggies/flyers archetype. GK then turn up to settle in 4th for a month or so.

 Jidmah wrote:
Classic daedalus math attack.
"look, this one unit in your codex with +1 to wound and a special deployment rule can kill a single model from random unit from another codex better than that unit can kill them back. All your units are great in combat, no changes needed!"

So you tax max Kommandos and don't take a grot? I also provided the grot-less numbers for your enjoyment. You could always fight Custodes on terrain, which is where they're going to be.

If melee specialists from both sides crank each other out and there isn't a huge gap? No, I don't see a need for sweeping changes. I see a need for changes in other parts of the game.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Dudeface wrote:
I mean to be fair it's not like you only attack Custodian Guard with shields in melee either, so it's not a wholly encompassing exercise.

Daed fancy comparing some bs5 orks vs bs4 orks into some common targets if you get bored please? Both with and without a -1 to hit.

I would, but this is an Ork thread and I don't feel like being gaslighted today.

Just thinking about it, when’s the last time the very best unit in an ork dex has been a melee unit, last few editions for me it’s been shooty things that have always been the models carrying the codex.

 Some_Call_Me_Tim wrote:
Just thinking about it, when’s the last time the very best unit in an ork dex has been a melee unit, last few editions for me it’s been shooty things that have always been the models carrying the codex.

I mostly owe this to 40k heavily favoring shooting. I WILL say this edition favors melee a little more than prior editions, but not by enough.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

 Jidmah wrote:
Classic daedalus math attack.
"look, this one unit in your codex with +1 to wound and a special deployment rule can kill a single model from random unit from another codex better than that unit can kill them back. All your units are great in combat, no changes needed!"

So you tax max Kommandos and don't take a grot? I also provided the grot-less numbers for your enjoyment. You could always fight Custodes on terrain, which is where they're going to be.

If melee specialists from both sides crank each other out and there isn't a huge gap? No, I don't see a need for sweeping changes. I see a need for changes in other parts of the game.

Your analysis is worthless for two reasons:
1) You picked the only unit in the codex which has somewhat viable melee capabilities and only has those due to a math-warping bespoke rule unique to them. Ironically, that unit isn't even a melee specialist unit (and not used as such), but a utility infiltrator unit used to gather VP.
2) A kills B better than B kills A is and always has been a useless statement. You are comparing apples to oranges.

You usually neither run max units of kommandoz nor the grot, by the way.

I didn't pick the unit.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
I didn't pick the unit.

Wait, what? You're the one who followed up the premise from the previous page to begin with, you don't get to back down after attempting to use it to justify your bias against Orks.

Nice try attempting to abdicate your accountability for showing that you don't know what you're talking about again.

 Grimskul wrote:

 Daedalus81 wrote:
I didn't pick the unit.

Wait, what? You're the one who followed up the premise from the previous page to begin with, you don't get to back down after attempting to use it to justify your bias against Orks.

Nice try attempting to abdicate your accountability for showing that you don't know what you're talking about again.

When was any bias displayed?

Hecaton wrote:

Well also the goal of the new Ork codex was to sell a lot of Snaggas. Not to make a fun codex. Good internal balance would have been against the goal.

But that's the thing....it didn't do anything to sell snaggas. The new "Beast Snagga" units were Beastsnagga boyz, Squighog boyz, Beastboss, Beastboss on Squigosaur, Named beastboss on squigosaur, Killrig, Hunta Rig, painboss, wurrboy, nob on smasha squig. (think that was it) Of all those new units, Beastboss on Squigosaur, Squighog boyz, Killrig and maybe nob on smash squig were ok/good ish The rest range from bad to hot garbage. And when I say "ok/good" i mean just that, they weren't broken, they weren't OP and they weren't even the best choices within their own FOC spots. Small tweaks could have made all these units good to competitive, they just decided not to do so.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
I gave the Sag misers.

Sag's get 12 attacks, they get 10 hits without any rerolls, thats 5 dead boyz on average. And again, that's without any of there easy access to re-rolls which they always have in spades. Thats 150pts of RANGED custodes killing 60pts of CC only Kommandos in a single turn on AVERAGE. Those Kommandos AVERAGE (144pts or 12 models) 36 attacks, 24 hits, 8 wounds and against -1AP thats 2.66dmg or just shy of 1 dead Custard. If you include even a single round of shooting its even worse, but the math is just there to point out that a RANGED COMBAT custodes unit is likely to win an equal engagement in CC against Kommandos. If you include the Throat slittas ability going off it goes to 24 hits, 12 wounds and 4dmg on average So 144pts of CC oriented infantry kill 50pts of ranged oriented custards. Still not a great trade off for the orkz. if you want to stack buffs like goffs, waaagh etc that is fine, i'll do likewise for the custards and lets incorporate a round of shooting, see how well that works out for the kommandos. You can dance around the point being made to your hearts content, but it still stands. Orkz are NOT competitive in CC in a meta that has a RANGED Custards unit beating up a Kommandos unit, the fact that its even close is terrible for those kommandos and just shows how skewed the game has become recently.

Tyel wrote:

The only thing I disagree with is that I think Buggies+Flyers was great for the 3ish months after the Snagga Box until they nerfed everything. If you go through a list of GTs (winners and top 4s) in that period, I think Orks are comfortably 3rd Army after DE and Ad Mech - and its overwhelmingly that buggies/flyers archetype. GK then turn up to settle in 4th for a month or so.

overall, yes Orkz did wonderful before the nerfs, we were solidly in 3rd place even though it relied exclusively on that 1 build and as Jidmah and i have stated in the past and for a change agree with one another, it was a FLUKE build rather than GW intentionally giving orkz a competitive build. That opinion is proven rather quickly by GW's immediate and hamfisted emergency nerf to that build.

But it is rather telling that Orkz had success as the THIRD most powerful army in the game and received incredibly quick and over compensating nerfs. The squigbuggy which is pathetically weak compared to the Voidweavers, received a 22.2% points increase AND it was limited from 3 squadrons of 3 to 1 squadron of 1-3. What did chickenwalkers get? You know the thing ad-mech were maxing out with? At first it just lost core, a few months later they finally hit it with a crushing, borderline debilitating....*Checks notes* 10pt price increase.

Drukhari and Ad-mech both continued to dominate the meta until Custards/harlies/Tau came out even after those nerfs, in contrast, orkz fell off a cliff in W/L rate and tournament top 4 placings.

Actually, they had three build, and the weakest one of the three, goff pressure, was nerfed into the ground for unknown reason despite being a perectly healthy archetype which was causing no problems whatsoever.