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 bosky wrote:
They survive by momentum and the fact that there will always be more 13-15 year olds who inject fresh money before getting burned out in a few years. Enough players have enough armies that they keep at it every new edition and codex change, even if they don't enjoy it, sunk cost style.

If 40k was released fresh today it would fail on the cost of entry alone.

Also can we move away from the ridiculous idea that 40k is a "beer & pretzels" game or "casual"? So easy to pick up and play after finding a 6'x4' table, building/buying enough terrain to fill it, spending ~$200 on rules and codexes, then a further $500 (assuming $200-$250 per starter army), painting everything, then finding 2-4 hours to setup and play the game!
Jeez! Yahtzee is beer & pretzels. X-Wing is arguably beer & pretzels. 40k is NOTHING BUT.

It's a beer and pretzels game in the sense that you can drink beer and eat pretzels while playing it

But that's also basically EVERY board/tabletop game.

Beer and Pretzels refers to the tone of the game. As in it's supposed to be played casually, as a hobby.

As opposed to the more serious wargames that existed at the time that were historical, and had more involved rules. In fact, they never sold terrain when that term was coined. They told you how to make terrain out of whatever you could find.

WayneTheGame wrote:

 bosky wrote:
They survive by momentum and the fact that there will always be more 13-15 year olds who inject fresh money before getting burned out in a few years. Enough players have enough armies that they keep at it every new edition and codex change, even if they don't enjoy it, sunk cost style.

If 40k was released fresh today it would fail on the cost of entry alone.

Also can we move away from the ridiculous idea that 40k is a "beer & pretzels" game or "casual"? So easy to pick up and play after finding a 6'x4' table, building/buying enough terrain to fill it, spending ~$200 on rules and codexes, then a further $500 (assuming $200-$250 per starter army), painting everything, then finding 2-4 hours to setup and play the game!
Jeez! Yahtzee is beer & pretzels. X-Wing is arguably beer & pretzels. 40k is NOTHING BUT.

It's a beer and pretzels game in the sense that you can drink beer and eat pretzels while playing it

But that's also basically EVERY board/tabletop game.

The beer and pretzels thing is something that GW trots out every now and then as a bland excuse for their poorly written rules ala "forge the narrative." A true beer and pretzels game is one that doesn't involve any "forging" of narratives or figuring out what the drunken monkey who banged out the mis-mash of "rules" in the books meant when he banged his forehead repeatedly on the keyboard to produce the gack that was printed.


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 Veteran Sergeant wrote:
Beer and Pretzels refers to the tone of the game. As in it's supposed to be played casually, as a hobby.

As opposed to the more serious wargames that existed at the time that were historical, and had more involved rules. In fact, they never sold terrain when that term was coined. They told you how to make terrain out of whatever you could find.

Funny how it's the opposite now with the historical games being less involved rules-wise and more casual in nature.

 Slaphead wrote:
40k is an amazing game, has brilliant quality of models, rulebooks and all the other stuff like rulebooks, supplements, novels, games etc are really, really good.

I absolutely love everything about it. I'm sure the reason why it and GW haven't died is that despite some people complaining, the majority like me absolutely love it all. More people feel the need to complain about things and give negative reviews, whereas people that like things are less inclined to make the effort to shout about how much they enjoy it.

For me, 40k gets better and better and the amount of people still playing it speaks for itself.

I could eat shredded newspaper for breakfast and poop out a more coherent and balanced ruleset than the GW writers give us. The reason GW hasn't died is because they built up a large enough cash surplus during the years when they actually cared about their customers to weather the storm when their revenue and profit plummeted. However, despite cutting costs, raising prices and a breakneck release pace, their sales are still falling. Now the quality of the products are suffering because there's less time for play testing due to the release pace. This is causing less people to buy. To compensate, they raise prices, which causes even less people to buy. This is called a death spiral and it's usually an indicator that a company will be bankrupt in 5 years.

 Accolade wrote:
Yeah, I would definitely agree with TheCustomLime in that games of 40k work well with friends because you're all just there to have fun and its not as much of a competition (losing probably results in a light ribbing). With any game where you're actually trying to play a structured game against someone with whom you don't have a pre-established relationship, the imbalance can create some issues.

Although to that regard, I don't know why people who are in friend gaming groups feel the need to keep up with what rules GW are pumping out. You are sure investing a lot of money in something that really isn't improving very much, so do people see it as a high priced subscription then? I just imagine if I were in a group, we'd make an agreement about what edition we like the most and play that and stay away from wasting money on product that is not improving, only changing.

I've always liked the idea of playing games with older editions rules, but it seems like if you bring it up a lot of people act like you've just suggested some sort of apostasy. Finding a group that you can regularly play with, and is all on the same page for playing say, 6th ed, could be tough to manage.

GW dont go under because:

-Fanboys
-Fluff
-Their minis look good
-They paint and take good pictures of the minis.

 TheCustomLime wrote:
Momentum, really. 40k is big because 40k is big. People pick up 40k because that is what everyone else is playing. It's going to be a slow death as GW squanders away it's market domination.

I'd say pretty much this.

People play 40k because it's the most popular game out there because for so long it had a monopoly in the market. You played a GW game or you went without your fix of plastic unless you could get your best mate into an historical game or something. You're always going to get 40k players no matter where you are (especially in the UK), unless you live in an exceptionally small community. Many people bitch and moan (rightly so) but few actually give in and stop altogether. It took me about eleven years to finally put the breaks on.

That being said, it's dying a death by a thousand cuts. Where many other tabletop games I see out there are slowly growing, gaining new players daily (that is to say, the amount picking up the game is outnumbering those leaving) upgrading their production and sales, whilst GW only loses steam. Just look at those figures. GW won't suffer a heart attack over night. It won't 'die' tomorrow, it won't 'die' next year, it won't 'die' in a decade, they probably won't suddenly go into liquidation ever, but the way they're going? They're going to keep shrinking until they're just a shell of their former glory. The British Empire no longer rules the world, but the UK is still a powerful and important figure on the world stage.

 Arbitrator wrote:
GW won't suffer a heart attack over night. It won't 'die' tomorrow, it won't 'die' next year, it won't 'die' in a decade...

I don't know if I'd put money on that.

Yes, people have been saying GWS has been on the verge of death since first edition and so on, but I think the situation has markedly changed in recent history. Their stock has declined from £800 to £500 in 19 months. They've had other big stock drops over the years but they've all been due to some clearly articulable factor: the LOTR bubble bursting, the global financial crisis and ensuing recession, and so on.

In this case, however, GWS has been hemorrhaging money at a time when they're cutting costs to the bone, using less expensive materials, whoring out the IP to any shovelware developer whose check clears, and raising prices, all at once. They're throwing all those things out there and still plummeting. There are clearly some pretty significant fundamental problems and I don't think that's a matter of opinion. What is a matter of opinion is what specifically is the issue, and I daresay it's largely self inflicted wounds: their refusal to do any market research, their ham-fisted litigation bullying, their non-existent PR leading to nonsense like the Spots the Space Marine fiasco, their squandering of a fortune on a mediocre website, and so on. Even then they can coast until they finally break price elasticity (which I think they have), and there isn't much else to cut.

I think if they stay on the current course they're going to be acquired in a lot less than a decade.

GW don't go out of business because enough people enjoy their hobby and buy their products to prevent that happening.

this may or may not change in the near or distant future.

i think things are actually looking up, but plenty of other people disagree.

whilst i'm not as negative as a lot of people, there's still a lot of feth ups and money-grabbing going on. but the fluff and the models are SO good..

 daddyorchips wrote:
GW don't go out of business because enough people enjoy their hobby and buy their products to prevent that happening.

this may or may not change in the near or distant future.

i think things are actually looking up, but plenty of other people disagree.

whilst i'm not as negative as a lot of people, there's still a lot of feth ups and money-grabbing going on. but the fluff and the models are SO good..

Looking "up" in terms of what? It sure as hell isn't their financial numbers. The half year report for 2014 was £4M below 2013. 2013 was £7M below 2012...

In doing some quick research I came up wih this:
Games Workshop (LSE: GAW) has a reputation for being a dividend stalwart. Over the past five years the company's annual dividend yield has averaged 7.1% and this is set to continue.
Analysts believe that Games Workshop is set to yield 6.2% this year, 6.8% during 2016 and 7.8% during 2017. The company's dividend payout is set to increase at an inflation busting rate of 10% per annum.
According to current City forecasts, Games Workshop is currently trading at a forward P/E of 13.1 and the dividend is covered 1.2 times by earnings per share.



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 Toofast wrote:

 daddyorchips wrote:
GW don't go out of business because enough people enjoy their hobby and buy their products to prevent that happening.

this may or may not change in the near or distant future.

i think things are actually looking up, but plenty of other people disagree.

whilst i'm not as negative as a lot of people, there's still a lot of feth ups and money-grabbing going on. but the fluff and the models are SO good..

Looking "up" in terms of what? It sure as hell isn't their financial numbers. The half year report for 2014 was £4M below 2013. 2013 was £7M below 2012...

Just guessing by looking at their financials GW returns profits to shareholders while absorbing losses into the business. If I had to make a educated guess the difference between US And UK (or IFRS) GAAP makes comparing financial statements really tricky for those of us in the USA. From what I can find GW is doing quite well.

Jaxler, it is at this point only a matter of time before GW Dies. If they don't fix their market model soon they will be out of business. I myself am an avid 40K player. I have a 5-6k PT Ork army. Of which 10% was bought from GW and 90% from EBAY and places like Dakkadakka. My army if purchased COMPLETELY through GW would cost over $1,700, instead I paid closer to 400-500. I had 2 armies at one point and I was forced to choose between the two of them to expand the other to a more playable level, if GW had lower prices I would have been more tempted to stick with 2 armies and then one day expand into 3 or maybe even 4 which would have brought them even more profit. Instead im a one and done player, I will play orks and thats it because I don't have the money to throw at their furnaces.


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BTW GW released its half year earnings reports and this half year guess what? The company dropped 4,000,000 pounds or roughly 1/16th its earnings in revenue.

So the last half year of 2014 saw GW lose 1/16th its profit margin compared to the 1st half of the year. Take into consideration that last year GW announced it lost 25% of its income. Put together GW is officially on its death bed and will soon die if HUGE sweeping changes are not put in place.

You guys are not very smart if you want to can the management every time something arrives which upsets you. You will end up with a completely incoherent business as every incoming exec "tries to turn around the company" and further fractures any kind of unified direction in design. Significant change takes time.

"Fire everyone" is super reactionary. And the Eldar codex is good except for a few problem units. Everyone needs to calm down. I have my reservations about the growing complexity of 40k, unless you make information more accessible. Decurion, Warhost, more to follow. But fixing the Jetbike/Wraith/D dilemma is as easy as a costing increase. It's just so simple.

I don't necessarily buy that the player base is that unhappy, either. Dakka is not necessarily very representative, and GW has better info on sales trends than we have. I don't know if GW wants to cater to the hardcore tournament crowd either, they have probably decided they will make casual players feel unwelcome.

GW's problems probably boil down to being too elite, complicated and expensive. That's what discourages most players. It doesn't help so many their own fans love to emanate negativity and wish death on the company, rather than deal. Not people I particularly want to hang out with. 40k needs to be more normal and accessible. Getting newer players into the game is completely glossed over in all these balance discussions.

 Ghazkuul wrote:
Jaxler, it is at this point only a matter of time before GW Dies. If they don't fix their market model soon they will be out of business. I myself am an avid 40K player. I have a 5-6k PT Ork army. Of which 10% was bought from GW and 90% from EBAY and places like Dakkadakka. My army if purchased COMPLETELY through GW would cost over $1,700, instead I paid closer to 400-500. I had 2 armies at one point and I was forced to choose between the two of them to expand the other to a more playable level, if GW had lower prices I would have been more tempted to stick with 2 armies and then one day expand into 3 or maybe even 4 which would have brought them even more profit. Instead im a one and done player, I will play orks and thats it because I don't have the money to throw at their furnaces.


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BTW GW released its half year earnings reports and this half year guess what? The company dropped 4,000,000 pounds or roughly 1/16th its earnings in revenue.

So the last half year of 2014 saw GW lose 1/16th its profit margin compared to the 1st half of the year. Take into consideration that last year GW announced it lost 25% of its income. Put together GW is officially on its death bed and will soon die if HUGE sweeping changes are not put in place.

7% yield isn't exaclty deathbed numbers... It's pretty amazing.

Yoyoyo wrote:
You guys are not very smart if you want to can the management every time something arrives which upsets you. You will end up with a completely incoherent business as every incoming exec "tries to turn around the company" and further fractures any kind of unified direction in design,

It's super reactionary. And the Eldar codex is good except for a few problem units. Everyone needs to calm down. I have my reservations about the growing complexity of 40k, unless you make information more accessible. But fixing the Jetbike/Wraith/D dilemma is as easy as a costing increase. It's just so simple.

I don't necessarily buy that the player base is that unhappy, either. Dakka is not necessarily very representative, and GW has better info on sales trends than we have.

If that were the case they wouldn't have lost 25% of their market value last year. According to the bloomsberg report, since October of 2013 GW has lost about 3/8ths of its value. So it is SUFFERING heavily

 Ghazkuul wrote:
If that were the case they wouldn't have lost 25% of their market value last year. According to the bloomsberg report, since October of 2013 GW has lost about 3/8ths of its value. So it is SUFFERING heavily

Ninja'd dawg. It's like turning a boat. You don't see instant reaction, and small jumps in profit don't equal long term health. That's why business needs vision -- it's hard to say what GW is thinking because they are trying not to get too close to their fan base.

which is a poor business plan when you think about the specific business they are in. Gaming communities are tight knit and by keeping them at arms length GW is alienating them. As for long term vision. the Down trend in GW's financials started in 2013 and can be seen as a sign that the community isn't happy with the recent trend of releasing codex's and units with broken stat lines in a brazen attempt to sell specific over priced models to armies that are popular. Space marines got centurions, Eldar got significant models, Tau got Riptides, Orks got Mek Gunz and Nauts. The list goes on.

The one thing that links all fo these together is that for the most part these units (except hte naut) are considered almost a must take to be competitive.

After looking at some (not enough for GAAS by any stretch) Id suggest the weakening of the euro and the whole eurozone Is the primary culprit for the losses in the last few years. Which fits with the reported positve 18 month outlook and strong dividend policy.

except that England has been positively affected by the down turn in the Euro and not vice versa.

Tbh GW's chart looks (casual study) to be similar enough to the FTSE 100 to say it's doing fine


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 Ghazkuul wrote:
except that England has been positively affected by the down turn in the Euro and not vice versa.

Sales to the eurozone.... Less consumers with spare income and rising costs relative to the Pound should result in less sales

look less casually then, GW's 3 year looks literally the OPPOSITE of the FTSE charts.


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And to counter that the increase in the Dollar and Pound would compensate more then enough to push the charts into the positive.

Honestly Indont see that, I see drops by GW that loosly follow the FTSE, it doesn't recover as quickly or as effectively as an index does but it's close enough that I'm confront able with the statement "the sognificant majority of losses in share price reflect broader market trends" now what that reflects I'm not qualified to answer, nor do I really want to. That said we might never agree, but I'm also confidant saying were I a UK citizen Id buy GW stock on its yield.


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dollR vs pound has been mostly stable so Indont see how that would change sales to the US, but again the weak Euro hurts retail sales from a UK company to the continent.


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Lulzy .. Confront able as an auto correct for comfortable...

I wish I could include pictures here but whatever, regardless the FTSE over the last 3 years has been steadily increasing. GW on the other hand has shown a steady DECLINE since 2013, losing roughly 30-35% market value. So how in the world does that look the same? one is going up strongly the other is dropping like a rock.

Because an index is made up of a bunch of companies, ones that underperform are eventually dropped. So it's value to me as an overlay is in seeing when a broad market has gone Down, and then applying that to a single company.
For an American company example: the Dow is at 17k+ and climbing for years, but a blue chip might be stable in that time. We could still fit the two graphs together and see that both fall mostly together and safely assume that the single blue chip stocks drops correlate closely enough that it is generally being affected by the market.

is that a better explanation?

nope, it is actually completely wrong in this regard. If the genera welfare of the british market is steadily increasing, then how would GW losing 25% of its value be a reflection of that market?

The British are experiencing a bull market right now and yet GW is financially stricken with the worst number it has had in the last 10+ years.

 Toofast wrote:
Now the quality of the products are suffering because there's less time for play testing due to the release pace.

They never really tested the gak anyway. In the studio they literally "test" new rules out by playing a handful of games in super casual mode, using armies like the crap you see in White Dwarf where they just take one of everything. They aren't looking for mistakes, they aren't thinking outside the box, and they aren't actively TRYING to break the game which is how you find what's broken in the first place.

If they gave a damn they'd have actual gamers do the play testing, open up an avenue for them to leave feedback, and then actually listen to the feedback. Who knows, we might actually get a codex that's worth the fething $60 that way.

Speaking of codex's have you ever bothered to think about the fact that the codex's are usually about 70% fluff and then 30% rules? and it always feels like they spent more time on the fluff then making the rules work or to match the fluff in the first place?

I think the eldar codex does a great job matching fluff to rules, both with unit special rules and formation layouts/bonuses. The problem is when eldar match the fluff they become similar to the movie marines from WD awhile back. I play eldar so I'm happy but my dark angels and CSM friends aren't...

The way codexs are released (~2yrs) isn't great for balance between factions. But since they publish hardcopy not digital, you are kind of stuck with it.

GW could publish the fluff in hard copy books for 'collectors'.
And have the Codex rules as digital download .

The only reason GW has not gone under is that they still managed to inspire some people to buy their product short term.
If GW plc had the same size customer base as they did back in 2004, they would have a turn over in excess of £300M.

GW will continue to shrink in size, and raise prices to try to stabilize . until GW find out what their business actually is and focus on it .