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Okay I am just posting these for reference and book marking. These are the chances to get enough 4+'s to manifest any of the WC1-3 powers followed by the chance to perils of the warp. I mostly posted these so people could have informed discussion when they are talking about psykers in other threads. BTW I used this nice program if you are interested;
http://www.fnordistan.com/smallroller.html

WC1:
1 dice = 50% (0%)
2 dice = 75% (2.78%)
3 dice = 87.5% (7.41%)
4 dice = 93.75% (13.19%)
5 dice = 96.88% (19.62%)
6 dice = 98.44% (26.32%)
7 dice = 99.22% (33.02%)
8 dice = 99.61% (39.53%)

WC2:
2 dice = 25% (2.78%)
3 dice = 50% (7.41%)
4 dice = 68.75% (13.19%)
5 dice = 81.25% (19.62%)
6 dice = 89.06% (26.32%)
7 dice = 93.75% (33.02%)
8 dice = 96.48% (39.53%)

WC3:
3 dice = 12.50% (7.41%)
4 dice = 31.25% (13.19%)
5 dice = 50.00% (19.62%)
6 dice = 65.63% (26.32%)
7 dice = 77.34% (33.02%)
8 dice = 85.55% (39.53%)
9 dice = 91.02% (45.73%)
10 dice = 94.53% (51.55%)

Perils Chances on Daemonology for the unfortunate, ie not CD or GK. See below.

In conclusion you will notice that high WC powers are very likely to cause perils and if you use the malefic primaris you will need 8 dice to have a decent shot at it and you will almost assuredly perils. The new psykers have some powerful abilities but they are very high risk in using them and your average army with a single ML2 will average 5.5 dice and so will usually get a single WC2 power off or possibly 2-3 WC1 powers off.

Interestingly even daemons throwing 8 dice at their malefic primaris have better than a 1/3 chance of peril's.

Please let me know if you catch any mistakes or errors. Thanks and good luck.

Daemonology chance for perils is 100% for 7 dice and up.

Nah, a die could land on a corner

Am I correct in assuming any doubles will be perils for daemonology? If so then the chart should be this... (assuming I did my math right)

2 dice = 16.67%
3 dice = 44.44%
4 dice = 72.22%
5 dice = 90.74%
6 dice = 98.46%
7+ dice = 100%

You guys are correct. Thanks.

Looks like you'll need an average of 2x Cost +1 WC to have a reasonable chance to get the power off without a dispel.

 minigun762 wrote:
Looks like you'll need an average of 2x Cost +1 WC to have a reasonable chance to get the power off without a dispel.

do we know what the dispel chance is?

Does anyone know the new rules for denying the witch or denying powers?
Thanks for the info, had those numbers in my head bht its nice to see them written out.
This is also without any modifiers like Runic weapons and Tyranid shadow in the warp.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Lookng at Santic, Daemonology, Biomancy, and Telepathy, there are a lot of very powerful 1 and 2 warp charge powers. Even with the added casting difficulties a good turn of pyshic powers can really change the game. I guess i really bad turn or perils is just as brutal the other way.

So basically you need to spend 4 warp charge to have the same chances of getting off a 1 warp charge power as you did to get one off previously with LD 10.

This makes the white dwarf article where they laughably complained about how chaplains were better than Librarians in 6th and how they wanted to fix that even more hilarious in their incompetence.

In 6th, a Librarian has a 92% chance of successfully casting any spell with a 2.7% chance of perils. Now the Librarian needs 4 dice to hit a 94% chance of success, which comes with a 13% chance of perils for non-daemon powers.

Lets take the success rate of a lone vanilla mastery 1 level Librarian. Factoring in the d6 roll for power dice, the average success rate for said librarian trying to cast a level 1 power with all available dice is still at 91%, but comes with an average 17% chance of perils. You can limit perils by using less dice, but that brings down the success rate.

The real kicker is in the dispel phase as leaked. To dispel, you need to roll a 6 for every warp charge of the spell to dispel it. An opponents with no psykers or defenses whatsoever has around a 44% chance of dispelling a level 1 power using only the d6 dice.

So your mastery level 1 librarian in 6th basically got his success rate cut in half and with more chances of perils. More powers and higher warp charge are hard to dispel, but don't scale well since you need roughly 3.5 dice per charge to hit 90% and only get 1 additional die per mastery level.

To be fair we have not seen many of the important details. There are a lot of small rules that would tip the balance on psykers one way or another.

However what I heard is that on a 6 you remove one of the opponent's successful 4+'s. This makes it entirely possible to power through that key power that turn but in return you are probably taking a peril. I also have not seen whether you need to be within a certain range or what confirmed yet. I know that some of the modifiers for DtW seem to be target and range dependent in the rumors.

One of the big reasons people were freaking out about psykers is that they saw the malefic powers and went OMG! they can create a GUO or Bloodthirster!!! but as we can see if you have to throw a huge number of dice at this (3 ML3 psykers worth!) and if you happen to be not daemon you will probably blow yourself up and do something nasty to your army.

We really just don't know enough to judge accurately whether the entire system is balanced though. Unlimited witchfires, not rolling to hit, 1 dice a bunch of WC1 powers, etc. could all make these vastly better.

I will tell you that I think that even a ML1 libby could be worthwhile just to give you the hood boost to your DtW and help you block key powers in psyker heavy armies.