Ongoing Rumor Accuracy Tracking

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**pretre**

DaKKaLAnce wrote:
I had a question, On lords Of Wargamming.

Wouldnt this rumor be correct/somewhat true and not false?

-DELETED Skitarii > Ad Mech > Eldar > SM > Tau. Correct. FALSE

I'm debating it still.

Actual:
Skitarii
Eldar
Ad Mech
SM
Tau??

If Tau comes true, I'll give them a Partially True.

**DaKKaLAnce**

Ok gotcha. thanks for the input!

**Chief Librarian Mephiston**

Mauler should be added to the list and dinged on several points, as he held himself out to be a valid rumor source, roundly denying a new Eldar, Dark Angels, and Space Marine codex. Let me just post up a bunch of screenshots I took a while back, and you can peruse the Mauler posts at your leisure.

**pretre**

Where were these posted? I need to grab the text of them and get links.

Automatically Appended Next Post:
SM apocalypse!

4chan was all false.

Steve the Warboss got 21 FALSE from SM. Yikes.

**pretre**

Updated SM and DA.

**pretre**

Tim
F 17

Steve
F 10
T 2

Vela
T 1

Natfka

Timetowaste85
F 1

SinaLeibniz
F 5
T 3

SadPanda
T 4

Harry
T 2

Darnok
T 1

Atia
T 4

Arthurius
T 1

Zamerion
T 1

Silvertongue
T 1

Captain Citadel
T 1

Automatically Appended Next Post:
9th edition-mageddon.

**Alpharius**

Do any of the BoLS crew ever apologize for being so wrong, so often?

Or would such an admission less the clock through rate going forward?

**pretre**

Alpharius wrote:
Do any of the BoLS crew ever apologize for being so wrong, so often?

Or would such an admission less the clock through rate going forward?

Nope and yep.

I've talked to a dude who hangs out with Vela. He says Vela just forwards everything and doesn't filter. Same thing as Natfka.

**Alpharius**

Well, you'd think that by now, since that's obvious, their clickthru rates have GOT to be declining/really low...

**pretre**

Alpharius wrote:
Well, you'd think that by now, since that's obvious, their clickthru rates have GOT to be declining/really low...

Nope, the people who go there don't pay attention to stuff like the tracker or whether what they post is accurate or not. They just like seeing posts about 40k.

**pretre**

More blood in the water.

**Accolade**

Khorne must be pleased with this level of massacre!

**pretre**

Added judgedoug.

**MasterSlowPoke**

mikhaila has an underline you need to close.

**pretre**

Nice catch. Fixed.

**pretre**

Massive warhammer fantasy updates.

**pretre**

A silly thread reminded me of Vela's enormous 'chat conversation' about how Fantasy and 40k were going to be the same.

Vela
T 5
F 215
PT 10

Ouch.

**Shadowclaimer**

pretre wrote:
Alpharius wrote:
Well, you'd think that by now, since that's obvious, their clickthru rates have GOT to be declining/really low...

Nope, the people who go there don't pay attention to stuff like the tracker or whether what they post is accurate or not. They just like seeing posts about 40k.

That's me, there's a ton of stuff that ends up false, but it doesn't make it not fun to discuss it really.

**pretre**

Shadowclaimer wrote:
pretre wrote:
Alpharius wrote:
Well, you'd think that by now, since that's obvious, their clickthru rates have GOT to be declining/really low...

Nope, the people who go there don't pay attention to stuff like the tracker or whether what they post is accurate or not. They just like seeing posts about 40k.

That's me, there's a ton of stuff that ends up false, but it doesn't make it not fun to discuss it really.

I guess I don't get this. Why not just hang out in the proposed rules forum then? Discussing made up stuff that has little to no chance of coming true seems like a waste of time for me.

**Shadowclaimer**

pretre wrote:
Shadowclaimer wrote:
pretre wrote:
Alpharius wrote:
Well, you'd think that by now, since that's obvious, their clickthru rates have GOT to be declining/really low...

Nope, the people who go there don't pay attention to stuff like the tracker or whether what they post is accurate or not. They just like seeing posts about 40k.

That's me, there's a ton of stuff that ends up false, but it doesn't make it not fun to discuss it really.

I guess I don't get this. Why not just hang out in the proposed rules forum then? Discussing made up stuff that has little to no chance of coming true seems like a waste of time for me.

Because about half the time it is true? I mean, sometimes he gets the jump on some stuff, sometimes he doesn't and it ends up false. Regardless there's a few people on there I enjoy "hanging out with" and discussing potential changes and reasons.

Its also kinda fun guessing whether its true or not and then seeing who's right when the dust clears.

I don't take it as gospel, if I want gospel I go to Lady Atia's Twitter where she only posts hard leaks. Rumors are rumors to me, I don't fully trust any of the rumormongers.

**Accolade**

Well, a lot of the rumormongers are just click-bait mongers. Their whole goal for posting the made-up rumors is to garner clicks on their websites. I don't find much engagement in discussing the things they literally just make up for profit.

@pretre: Larry seriously can't get much more wrong! He's quite literally almost at zero with this last release. Hasn't he griped about dakka's rumor tracker before? I wonder what possible reason he would have to do that...

**pretre**

Shadowclaimer wrote:
Because about half the time it is true? I mean, sometimes he gets the jump on some stuff, sometimes he doesn't and it ends up false. Regardless there's a few people on there I enjoy "hanging out with" and discussing potential changes and reasons.

Its also kinda fun guessing whether its true or not and then seeing who's right when the dust clears.

I don't take it as gospel, if I want gospel I go to Lady Atia's Twitter where she only posts hard leaks. Rumors are rumors to me, I don't fully trust any of the rumormongers.

That's the thing, it isn't even close to half the time anymore. Larry is at about 23% true. Natfka is around 38%. Steve the Warboss is around 27%. These are the people we're talking about who are just trying to farm clicks.

Larry Vela aka Big Red - Total rumors: (190 TRUE) / (597 FALSE) / (42 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)
Natfka on Faeit 212 - Total rumors: (361 TRUE) / (824 FALSE) / (75 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)
Steve the Warboss - Total rumors: (38 TRUE) / (95 FALSE) / (10 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)

If you wanted to talk about who is reliable and who you should discuss? You should be looking at Sad Panda (100% True), Atia (100% True), Hastings (82% true), Harry (79% True), etc. These folks are only incidentally wrong and almost always worth listening to. That's the purpose of the tracker: sorting the good from the bad.

Sad Panda - Total rumors: (22 TRUE) / (0 FALSE) / (0 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)
Atia - Total rumors: (7 TRUE) / (0 FALSE) / (1 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)
75hastings69 - Total rumors: (93 TRUE) / (18 FALSE) / (2 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)
Harry from Warseer - Total rumors: (57 TRUE) / (13 FALSE) / (2 PARTIALLY TRUE/VAGUE)

Automatically Appended Next Post:
For funsies, here's every rumor monger with more than 20 tracks:

RumorMonger	TRUE	FALSE	Partially True / Vague	Accuracy?
Brovius 	43	0	0	100%
Sad Panda 	22	0	0	100%
Little Bird 	68	2	0	97%
Squidbot 	21	1	0	95%
Best Pone 	32	0	2	94%
Neko from Warseer 	29	1	1	94%
Grant 	22	0	2	92%
40kradio 	61	5	3	88%
Lords of Wargaming 	38	3	2	88%
Captain Citadel 	21	2	1	88%
ChargeandDie 	27	2	2	87%
Beasts of War 	26	1	3	87%
Endobai 	44	4	5	83%
WhiteHat 	44	4	5	83%
75hastings69 	93	18	2	82%
The Dude 	24	4	2	80%
Harry from Warseer 	57	13	2	79%
Bramgaunt 	20	5	1	77%
Tastytaste at Blood of Kittens 	121	25	12	77%
Darnok (from Warseer) 	76	19	11	72%
Father Gabe 	33	10	7	66%
Puscifer 	12	10	1	52%
WhispererofTruth 	17	14	5	47%
Kirby from 3++ 	26	28	3	46%
Natfka on Faeit 212 	561	824	75	38%
Nightfury 	9	14	1	38%
shaso_iceborn 	10	21	1	31%
Stickmonkey 	162	330	51	30%
Voice of the Chaos Gods 	26	61	2	29%
necronspurs2012 	10	23	4	27%
Steve the Warboss 	38	95	10	27%
Ikitlagriffe 	6	7	13	23%
Larry Vela aka Big Red 	190	597	42	23%
Tim the Thief 	19	71	3	20%
SinaLeibniz 	7	31	0	18%
Antipathy 	4	18	1	17%
Maelstr 	10	42	7	17%
Master Sheol 	5	22	3	17%
TheDarkGeneral 	13	69	13	14%
ghost21 	8	59	2	12%
Tyren 	4	33	2	10%
Lecai 	3	27	7	8%
Juvieus Kaine 	2	46	0	4%
4chan 	2	71	2	3%

**pretre**

And here's every RumorMonger period:

Spoiler:

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Aww damn, spoiler doesn't work on code.

**pretre**

Lots of clean up of old rumors. Updated!

**pretre**

Small updates.

**Brometheus**

Pretre,

We have more from Dark Apostle today: http://natfka.blogspot.com/2015/08/redshirt-rumors-tau-next-astra.html?showComment=1440893246779#c9275325234900481

Specifically:

----------------------------------------------------------
"AM won't get a release this year. Tzeentch/chaos is after Tau. (TDK i don't know but chaos will be seeing more this year in the november at the very least. possible Xmas release. (or there abouts) but i have not been told anything about AM. i heard whispers of Tyranids, but no IG just yet.

BUT.....but i have been wrong before as have everyone else whom has supplied info's here. (it's all hit and miss until GW releases it- regardless of the source. as we have witnessed recently)

as always take the info any way you like."
----------------------------------------------------------

-Brom

Automatically Appended Next Post:
It's interesting to note that he mentions that he has "been wrong before", but afaik he has not been either wrong or right yet according to the tracker?

Meh.

**Brometheus**

we will be getting that new sorcerer. i initially thought it was a daemon, it could well be a chaos sorcerer (chaos space marine). regardless what i heard/was told: Tzeentch will see a release (if not rules aka dex, then models) Tau ~ Chaos ~ Tyranid......then maybe AM, then another Imperial dex, possibly a supplement followed by several repacks.for Tau: * new drones* new suits* possibly new kroot and vespids.Chaos:* updated dex/TDK (either or)* Havocs (we have heard this before, but increased price point, increased number of options in kit)* something new and big.* Cultists (idk if 10 or 20 man, just that they are coming)Nids:* expect new dex, or supplement containing last big wave of nids as well as several new strains represented.* re-pack of gaunts (with options for gargoyles- wings)AM:* hardback dex* sentinel repack* rough riders* new tank/terrain feature.Imperial Dex/Supp:* IDK. wasn't listening as i was focused on finding out chaos info's (but did hear to expect something around the end of this year/start of next year, could be a campaign, could be anything at this point)that's more or less i know or can divulge at this moment. now i fully do not expect this to come true nor do i expect anyone to take me serious due in part i never share pictures or verify my info. but take this with salt and know that some or all MIGHT be released (and in the order given above)

[[More today From DA. same link as above post]]

**pretre**

Thanks. Added to OP.

**Brometheus**

Sorry to bother you, Pretre. I just feel like these are worth a thread for in the N&R section so I made one. I would link you the post I just made, but I can't for some reason.. Oddly enough, I can still link the original post on B&C where these people gave rumors. So, apologies.. but you should be able to find my most recent thread here on Dakka easily

SlavetoDarkness, and TheHairySorcerer20

http://www.bolterandchainsword.com/topic/312676-chaos-space-marines-rumors/page-6

Thanks again.

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Sorry to bother you, Pretre. I just feel like these are worth a thread for in the N&R section so I made one. I would link you the post I just made, but I can't for some reason.. Oddly enough, I can still link the original post on B&C where these people gave rumors. So, apologies.. but you should be able to find my most recent thread here on Dakka easily

SlavetoDarkness, and TheHairySorcerer20

http://www.bolterandchainsword.com/topic/312676-chaos-space-marines-rumors/page-6

Thanks again.

**pretre**

Updated.