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For my point of view, it is kind of hard to say. The hopeful side of me thinks that after Games Workshop goes down the drain, other companies start to fill in the void that Games Workshop has left. No one company will not be as overtly dominant like GW during its heyday, but there might be two-or-three that take the top spot. Seeing the current market as it it, this might be Fantasy Flight a little more on top since they have a strong presence on Living Card Games, Board Games, RPGs and starting to make a little more headway into miniatures now than before. Then followed and probably close by Privateer Press. Corvus Belli and possibly Warlord following close behind. The possibly of that many gamers who used GW for a while leave for not seeing a proper alternative if someone does not pick up the IP and run with it (depending if it was handled properly and much better than it is now).

Again, my two cents on the situation.

Everyone would benefit, including the fanbase.

If GW went away there would be a sudden vacuum in the market place.

The direct competitors would start experiencing a large amount of growth, and all of the problems thereof, as wargamers started to switch systems. This switch wouldn't be immediate, as we obviously still have rules and models to use. Further, eBay prices would go up and more well defined alternative rules would appear on various forums. You'd likely even see a few tournaments finishing out the year with GW before switching over completely to other systems.

We've seen this type of thing happen before when other systems disappeared (eg: Battletech). Some people hold on to what they have, others move to different systems, and still others just quit wargaming entirely.

Ultimately the market itself would rebalance. After market companies, and even recasters, would entirely switch over to other lines as a new winner takes charge.

In short, there would be a bit of Chaos but likely after 2 years the problems would have already healed over as people completed their switch. Assuming the fall was due to insolvency then we'd see another company pick up the "Warhammer" brand. It's a crap shoot as to whether they would be successful or not and the brand might change hands a few times before finally landing in someone's hands that knows what they are doing. If there were any legal issues involved regarding the assets (highly likely given their size) then it would easily be 10 years before another company would even start selling the product again.

I would love an after market for Warmachine. And despite rumors to the contrary, yes, you can convert Warmachine stuff. ( I will be doing so shortly.)

For my point of view, it is kind of hard to say. The hopeful side of me thinks that after Games Workshop goes down the drain, other companies start to fill in the void that Games Workshop has left.

The problem with statements like this (and many other statements in this thread) is that they don't fully take into account the fact that there has never been a table-top war game as big as 40k is right now (you mention that there won't be anyone as big as GW in their heyday but even that doesn't quite go far enough to explain the situation). While games like Battletech were popular in their day, I never saw or heard of a single store supporting itself based almost entirely on Battletech sales. Additionally (and again speaking strictly in terms of miniature wargames only), I don't know that the gap between #1 and #2 has ever been this large either.

The stores I shop at or keep in contact with (because I move a lot and keep in touch with old friends) are largely on the east cost of the U.S. and in Ohio. They are all independents (never actually even seen a GW corporate storefront in person). Without exception, their sales strategy is as follows:

A. MtG and other collectable card games are what pays the bills and allows them to have room for games like 40k. 40k in turn sells enough to not be dead weight on the bottom line and keeps people coming back. The other games like warmahordes/drop zone are available but exist largely because the store can afford to take a small hit on them with the money MtG and Gw helps them bring in and it's always good to offer more options.

B. Comic books and other collectibles are what pays the bills and keeps the doors open and the gaming supplies make up a small portion of profits but bring people in and sell enough to justify their existence. As with the top example, MtG is still the money maker by a wide margin over minis

C. It's a game store but they primarily focus on RPGs. They offer table space and regular gaming groups and make more money off of selling the gamers food and soda than they do on the actual games.

So in every case above, GW is the Wargame that's making the money and allowing the others to piggy back off of it. If GW goes, there's no garuantee that gamers will just instantly switch systems. Some will, but many more will just leave completely and others may switch but will need convincing. Meanwhile, while the remaining companies like PP are scrambling to try and get new production up and running for the supposed "increased demand" the game stores I mentioned are busy having fire sales. They would be selling off ALL wargames at very cheap prices and either consolidating their shops into smaller, less expensive places, or dedicating the newly free shelf space to their bigger money makers.

Additionally, it's not been my experience that when a game system goes belly up that it's still easy to play. Gamers move on pretty quick. Just try getting a game of Chronopia, Warzone, Clan Wars, SST or Vor locally. You can't do it and even if you can, your LGS isn't going to help because they aren't making money off of it.

In short, and speaking for my stores only, GW going under would be fairly catastrophic for the wargaming community as a whole. It's already hanging on by a thread and the other minis systems don't bring in enough money to keep the stores from dumping them if there's no 40k bringing people in. I don't see that situation going well for us.

Edited because I used the wrong quote ...

If GW goes under than wouldn't that mean that independents would have already seen their GW sales dropping? I mean, its not like its going to happen overnight and everyone is going to wake up shocked about being in a GW-less world.

If GW goes under than it would most certainly mean that most of their customers have either already dropped wargaming altogether, or have switched games already.

I'd be very doubtful of a game store riding predominantly on GW sales until the bitter end. There might be a handful of stores that'd be ruined, but part of you wonders what they were doing relying entirely on a single product line in the first place.

No, I don't think losing GW would have any sort of lasting dramatic consequences on wargaming at large.

I'd be very doubtful of a game store riding predominantly on GW sales until the bitter end. There might be a handful of stores that'd be ruined, but part of you wonders what they were doing relying entirely on a single product line in the first place.

You're right, they wouldn't ride it out to the bitter end. The point (in my case) still stands though. No one is going to fill that void and be the moneymaker/traffic generator GW was so even in the case that it's a long slow decline, the LGS I mention are still going to sell off what's left and consolidate. It would largely signal the end of Wargamming in the area.

Plus, many companies DO go out of business "overnite" as it were. FASA didn't exactly give a ton of notice to our local stores for example. A bunch of us had just bought in to Crucible (a wargame FASA published maybe 6 months before they called it quits) and were in the process of putting together a large order when our shop's distributor told us the news (he wasn't suppose to tell anyone for another few weeks but didn't want the store to be mad at him for letting us order a ton of stuff from them). GW would likely do it in a similar manner. "Nothing is wrong, everything is fine despite reports to the contrary" is what you would hear on Monday and "We're done" is what you would hear on Tuesday. AFTER you've placed your final large order.

I don't think GW is providing the majority of revenue for very many stores out there. I also suspect that even the stores where GW stuff outsells other wargames, the margins through their distributors are better than what GW offers and if the store ever started having issues with GW, they'll have loads of choices to replace them with that would get them that little bit extra margin through a normal distributor that would make it worth their while.

What I've been seeing here over the last five years is what it looks like when GW fades away as the top wargame. The answer is healthier stores where a 2-5% increase in margin makes a huge difference in terms of long term viability.

The previously GW gaming communities tend to fragment into multiple different games, but what does the store care? They're all available from the same distributor and can be special ordered with ease while a tiny amount is all that is needed to be kept in stock for new players (or people making a second army).

It also takes effort to promote a game and I think many store owners will find that the same effort spent on alternatives to GW (especially MTG) will yield more rewards for the same effort. Local stores here have had great success replacing their Warhammer Fantasy night with board game night. Better margins, easy to sell people new games, easy to build a community.

Tycho wrote:

For my point of view, it is kind of hard to say. The hopeful side of me thinks that after Games Workshop goes down the drain, other companies start to fill in the void that Games Workshop has left.

The problem with statements like this (and many other statements in this thread) is that they don't fully take into account the fact that there has never been a table-top war game as big as 40k is right now (you mention that there won't be anyone as big as GW in their heyday but even that doesn't quite go far enough to explain the situation). While games like Battletech were popular in their day, I never saw or heard of a single store supporting itself based almost entirely on Battletech sales. Additionally (and again speaking strictly in terms of miniature wargames only), I don't know that the gap between #1 and #2 has ever been this large either.

The stores I shop at or keep in contact with (because I move a lot and keep in touch with old friends) are largely on the east cost of the U.S. and in Ohio. They are all independents (never actually even seen a GW corporate storefront in person). Without exception, their sales strategy is as follows:

A. MtG and other collectable card games are what pays the bills and allows them to have room for games like 40k. 40k in turn sells enough to not be dead weight on the bottom line and keeps people coming back. The other games like warmahordes/drop zone are available but exist largely because the store can afford to take a small hit on them with the money MtG and Gw helps them bring in and it's always good to offer more options.

B. Comic books and other collectibles are what pays the bills and keeps the doors open and the gaming supplies make up a small portion of profits but bring people in and sell enough to justify their existence. As with the top example, MtG is still the money maker by a wide margin over minis

C. It's a game store but they primarily focus on RPGs. They offer table space and regular gaming groups and make more money off of selling the gamers food and soda than they do on the actual games.

So in every case above, GW is the Wargame that's making the money and allowing the others to piggy back off of it. If GW goes, there's no garuantee that gamers will just instantly switch systems. Some will, but many more will just leave completely and others may switch but will need convincing. Meanwhile, while the remaining companies like PP are scrambling to try and get new production up and running for the supposed "increased demand" the game stores I mentioned are busy having fire sales. They would be selling off ALL wargames at very cheap prices and either consolidating their shops into smaller, less expensive places, or dedicating the newly free shelf space to their bigger money makers.

Additionally, it's not been my experience that when a game system goes belly up that it's still easy to play. Gamers move on pretty quick. Just try getting a game of Chronopia, Warzone, Clan Wars, SST or Vor locally. You can't do it and even if you can, your LGS isn't going to help because they aren't making money off of it.

In short, and speaking for my stores only, GW going under would be fairly catastrophic for the wargaming community as a whole. It's already hanging on by a thread and the other minis systems don't bring in enough money to keep the stores from dumping them if there's no 40k bringing people in. I don't see that situation going well for us.

Edited because I used the wrong quote ...

In some parts, I kind of do agree. PP needs to get their act together (granted I love their game and products, but they are still kind of small time) before doing anything major. But Games Workshop is, on a whole, not doing so hot and starting to not meet the demands almost looking at the global trend. That is why I put Fantasy Flight as first since it is a company that would be able to capitalize on it and expand.

As Blacksails has noted, I think it is not going to be something that happens overnight. It is something that is going to possibly happen over the long run and more than likely, a global shift to other games that are non-GW. If that happens, then the gaming community has essentially lessened the effect of GW going belly-up.

I don't think GW is providing the majority of revenue for very many stores out there.

If you read what I wrote you would see that I said MtG/"other" is providing most of the gross revenue. GW is generally the only MINIS game making a profit (again in my area).

The previously GW gaming communities tend to fragment into multiple different games, but what does the store care? They're all available from the same distributor and can be special ordered with ease while a tiny amount is all that is needed to be kept in stock for new players (or people making a second army).

It also takes effort to promote a game and I think many store owners will find that the same effort spent on alternatives to GW (especially MTG) will yield more rewards for the same effort. Local stores here have had great success replacing their Warhammer Fantasy night with board game night. Better margins, easy to sell people new games, easy to build a community.

It's very easy to get someone to pick up MtG or a board game. Yes. That's the point. Other wargames are a much harder sell. There are plenty of really good minis games that allow good play and have quality miniatures at better prices but they aren't selling right now and I don't expect that to change just because GW goes under. Most of the 40K players I know are 40k players. NOT wargamers in general. That's exactly why what I said is probably what will happen in these stores. The other games like Warmahordes are likely just not going to generate enough income fast enough for the stores to justify carrying them so that shelf space now becomes CCGs, board games, etc.

Like what Tycho mentioned, my local game stores relies heavily on Magic and other card games to pay the bills. I never knew how popular card games are until I went there. Those who do play WHF40K are the old school (older individuals).

Tycho wrote:


You're right, they wouldn't ride it out to the bitter end. The point (in my case) still stands though. No one is going to fill that void and be the moneymaker/traffic generator GW was so even in the case that it's a long slow decline, the LGS I mention are still going to sell off what's left and consolidate. It would largely signal the end of Wargamming in the area.

How do you know that? No singular company may fill the void of GW, but why does it matter if one or a dozen companies grow, expand, or apparate to fill the gap? While a handful of small areas might be hit hard with the loss of GW, wargaming as a whole would carry on, likely for the better in the time following. Gaming still exists outside of a dedicated store, and while its gakky losing a store, I have to wonder about the business model of the store that is dependent on a single product line.

Plus, many companies DO go out of business "overnite" as it were. FASA didn't exactly give a ton of notice to our local stores for example. A bunch of us had just bought in to Crucible (a wargame FASA published maybe 6 months before they called it quits) and were in the process of putting together a large order when our shop's distributor told us the news (he wasn't suppose to tell anyone for another few weeks but didn't want the store to be mad at him for letting us order a ton of stuff from them). GW would likely do it in a similar manner. "Nothing is wrong, everything is fine despite reports to the contrary" is what you would hear on Monday and "We're done" is what you would hear on Tuesday. AFTER you've placed your final large order.

There have been dozens of competitors for GW for years now. The writing is on the walls for a lot of people, and really, this financial report will show us if last years was a blip or the start of the descent. I'd be a little shocked to hear about a decent game store not stocking other games, like Infinity, WM/H or Dystopian Wars, not to mention board games, RPGs, and card games. If a store does indeed go belly up because they're shocked to learn to GW goes under, I have to question their business decisions.

GW may be the largest wargaming company currently, but if the trends keep up the way they are, it'll be a fairly smooth transition away from the monolith mentality and into a market with a dozen smaller companies offering a wider range of products.

Like what Tycho mentioned, my local game stores relies heavily on Magic and other card games to pay the bills. I never knew how popular card games are until I went there. Those who do play WHF40K are the old school (older individuals).

Exactly. And in most cases the shop owner is going to look at that dedicated wargaming space and say "I could put time into promoting a different wargame (likely one that's already been in the shop for a while and is barely breaking even), and hopefully start making money on that space again in six months to a year, or I could consolidate to a smaller store or convert that space to something fo rone of my CCGs and make money IMMEDIATELY."

Considering the shoe string budget most LGSs run on, I don't see many stores taking the chance ...

How do you know that? No singular company may fill the void of GW, but why does it matter if one or a dozen companies grow, expand, or apparate to fill the gap? While a handful of small areas might be hit hard with the loss of GW, wargaming as a whole would carry on, likely for the better in the time following. Gaming still exists outside of a dedicated store, and while its gakky losing a store, I have to wonder about the business model of the store that is dependent on a single product line.

Because where I live GW going under WOULD end the community. Too many people live too far away from each other to game at someone's house. The Stores are where people can get together thanks to public transportation. I feel like you're either not understanding what I'm saying, or you're deliberately avoiding my actual point. I have said in every post that NO STORE relies on GW for its profits. I've also not one time said the LGS would go out of business. I said the would simply stop catering to such a small portion of the business and switch that space to something else.

I'd be a little shocked to hear about a decent game store not stocking other games, like Infinity, WM/H or Dystopian Wars, not to mention board games, RPGs, and card games. If a store does indeed go belly up because they're shocked to learn to GW goes under, I have to question their business decisions.

Again, I've not even implied that this is the case ...I'm not sure how much more clear I can make it, but no, not one store would go under because of GW going away. It's just that we as a local community would lose store support which would then, kill the community.

The good independent stores leverage their customers as volunteers to organize play for the games they are interested in, stock a minimum amount and then do special orders as the community grows.

Stocking a line of miniatures and hoping to make money six months later is a pretty poor way to approach the problem of falling GW sales. You build these alternative games customer bases organically. The GW model of telling a store to fill a whole wall with thousands and thousands worth of their product is in GW's best interests, not the retailers and when the retailers realize that, there's no reason to repeat the mistake with another miniatures game.

If you've got good distributors and good communication with your customers, you can sell 20 different alternative miniatures games, stock a small amount of only some of them and do great sales through special orders.

Why? They'll all be available through a distributor or two. You just add the stuff to an order you're making anyway because you're ordering Magic cards.

This idea that GW sales somehow make it possible for the store to be willing to try stocking other games is ludicrous. They're not "taking a hit" on them unless they don't sell and then they're no different than the hundreds or thousands of GW stock that isn't selling. Well, except they probably got a better trade discount through their distributor than GW gives, so there's less capital tied up.

Tycho wrote:

Because where I live GW going under WOULD end the community. Too many people live too far away from each other to game at someone's house. The Stores are where people can get together thanks to public transportation. I feel like you're either not understanding what I'm saying, or you're deliberately avoiding my actual point. I have said in every post that NO STORE relies on GW for its profits. I've also not one time said the LGS would go out of business. I said the would simply stop catering to such a small portion of the business and switch that space to something else.

Again, I've not even implied that this is the case ...I'm not sure how much more clear I can make it, but no, not one store would go under because of GW going away. It's just that we as a local community would lose store support which would then, kill the community.

Okay, so you'd lose your community.

The thread is about how other companies would be affected, and I suppose, wargaming at large by extension.

Then again, if the store in question still stocks any sort of miniature games, why would you suddenly be unable to play 40k with the models and books you have? Or perhaps trying another game?

It sounds like you have a specific problem in that your wargaming life revolves entirely around GW.

The good independent stores leverage their customers as volunteers to organize play for the games they are interested in, stock a minimum amount and then do special orders as the community grows.

Stocking a line of miniatures and hoping to make money six months later is a pretty poor way to approach the problem of falling GW sales. You build these alternative games customer bases organically. The GW model of telling a store to fill a whole wall with thousands and thousands worth of their product is in GW's best interests, not the retailers and when the retailers realize that, there's no reason to repeat the mistake with another miniatures game.

If you've got good distributors and good communication with your customers, you can sell 20 different alternative miniatures games, stock a small amount of only some of them and do great sales through special orders.

Why? They'll all be available through a distributor or two. You just add the stuff to an order you're making anyway because you're ordering Magic cards.

This idea that GW sales somehow make it possible for the store to be willing to try stocking other games is ludicrous. They're not "taking a hit" on them unless they don't sell and then they're no different than the hundreds or thousands of GW stock that isn't selling. Well, except they probably got a better trade discount through their distributor than GW gives, so there's less capital tied up.

Sarcasm on\

Right, so again, as I mentioned, several times ...

While the stores DO stock and actively promote other games, GW is their big seller (when it comes to wargames). I realize that everyone else lives in a gaming utopia where every group plays every alternative game just as much as they play GW stuff and that the sky is falling because GW is >insert insult of the week here<, but that's just not the case with my stores.

/sarcasm


Really, it's great that you guys have communities that play other games to the point that you can switch systems easily. Point is, the stores I frequent don't have that (and it's not for lack of trying - believe me). Like I said, I think many 40k players are just that - 40k players. They don't have as much interest in wargamming in general. Regardless of what the internet would have you believe, it's not as easy to get someone to pick up a new game to the point that a store will give up valuable real estate to support it. Sadly.

Okay, so you'd lose your community.

The thread is about how other companies would be affected, and I suppose, wargaming at large by extension.

Then again, if the store in question still stocks any sort of miniature games, why would you suddenly be unable to play 40k with the models and books you have? Or perhaps trying another game?

It sounds like you have a specific problem in that your wargaming life revolves entirely around GW.

Right, but I think that's more common (especially in the U.S.) than people realize. I actually think that GW going under WOULD have a long term negative effect. Not one as catastrophic as the effect would be locally, but still negative long term. You can't compare this industry to other "mainstream" industries where if one widget maker fails, there's a million more widget makers ready willing and able to fill the void seamlessly.

We're in different countries. Here in Canada retailers of GW products need to compete, at full Canadian MSRP with US based online sellers of GW at US MSRP + a discount.

If I want to I can get GW stuff at just over what the local store pays for it at their trade discount. It's a bit better for local stores since the US dollar strengthened over the last year, but we're still talking the equivalent of a 30-40% discount. Or, if I want to buy non-GW stuff locally I can just pay the honest exchange rate because GW can't dictate the price of non-GW products (obviously).

So stores here are working at a price disadvantage on their GW stuff.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Tycho wrote:
You can't compare this industry to other "mainstream" industries where if one widget maker fails, there's a million more widget makers ready willing and able to fill the void seamlessly.

Yes you can. GW is not special.

We're still talking retail here. If someone comes into the shop and they want some miniature wargaming related, the staffer can recommend products, put the product in their hand, guide them to the till and close the sale. You can still have gaming space available, make special orders, promote products, etc.,. And that's not even counting how smaller miniature companies are doing great things using the internet to promote their games. Infinity 3rd Edition Week on Beasts of War has caused a massive boost in Infinity special orders at two local stores, for example.

There are communities across the world that used to have thriving GW communities and multiple stores selling GW products. They've faded. We've seen first hand what it looks like when GW goes from dominant to irrelevant in a local area.

And it'll be okay. Better even. To the point that you sarcastically described us as living in a "gaming utopia."

---

Tycho wrote:

Right, but I think that's more common (especially in the U.S.) than people realize. I actually think that GW going under WOULD have a long term negative effect. Not one as catastrophic as the effect would be locally, but still negative long term. You can't compare this industry to other "mainstream" industries where if one widget maker fails, there's a million more widget makers ready willing and able to fill the void seamlessly.

Why can't you compare this industry to others? What makes miniature wargaming so special we can't compare other luxury markets dominated by one or two large players?

I have seen no argument or reason to believe GW's demise would negatively impact the hobby at large. We've seen the market grow the past few years while GW's revenue has either dropped, or remained flat despite price increases. This means other companies are picking up the slack GW is handing them. The market is already filling the void GW is leaving behind. In fact, part of the success of games like Infinity or Firestorm Armada can be attributed to GW cutting product lines and those companies siezing the opportunity.

Given that, why is there any reason to believe other companies wouldn't be able to step up and fill the gap of a 28mm sci-fi company level game? The fantasy version already has a competitor, so its not like the market isn't ready on that front.

I don't think it'd be common at all. If people still want to play 40k, they could still go to the local store and play. If they play other games, they'd happily carry on doing just that. Really, the hardest hit would be people who exclusively play at GW stores, but given the general size of them, number of staff members, and restriction on the games you can play and how you can play them, I don't feel like that percentage of gamers makes up any sizeable amount.

No, the hobby will carry on just fine. Its already doing just that while GW stagnates. Its showing an ability to grow, adapt, and provide new experiences consumers want. There's no reason to conclude otherwise.

We're in different countries.

Which is why my points were more or less aimed (as I said) at the regional part of the U.S. I happen to be living in. I didn't say anythign about the Canadian market. Look at the OP's last line:

I wonder if the entire market would shrink in the longer run for the lack of a major recruiting point.

My point is that yes, I believe that it would indeed shrink. Just like how not everyone is currently seeing the "downturn" in GW sales, not every place would feel the shrink the same either, but I believe that, over-all, the market would get smaller.

We're still talking retail here. If someone comes into the shop and they want some miniature wargaming related, the staffer can recommend products, put the product in their hand, guide them to the till and close the sale.

And honestly, when was the last time you saw someone walk into a shop and say "I'm looking for something miniature wargame related?". My guess is never. While you can see that sort of thing happen all the time in other places. "I'm looking for a DVD player", "I need a washing machine", etc etc. Wargames is a niche part of an already niche market. Like it or not, the only player even close to being "mainstream" right now is GW. When your a bit player (or even larger than a bit player but still not #1) in a niche market and the name brand that was bringing people in goes under, things can get tough.

Yes, PP may get some additional interest, yes, Infinity may get a few more eyes on it, but in the long run, you're not likely to see a big enough shift that the gaming community at large will remain the same size it is now. I think it would get smaller. That could be good, it could be bad, but I think that's what would happen. An over-all contraction.

I have seen no argument or reason to believe GW's demise would negatively impact the hobby at large. We've seen the market grow the past few years while GW's revenue has either dropped, or remained flat despite price increases. This means other companies are picking up the slack GW is handing them. The market is already filling the void GW is leaving behind. In fact, part of the success of games like Infinity or Firestorm Armada can be attributed to GW cutting product lines and those companies siezing the opportunity.

But we HAVEN'T seen the market "grow". The market has remained stable. We've simply seen more people taking a bite from the same size pie. There's more choices now, but really, the miniatures wargaming market is not a "growth" industry. lol A lot of times, you can have the smaller guys running around and "looking" more sucessful than they are because demand for their product is low. There's just enough demand that they can make money, but not so much demand that they have trouble meeting production quotas. That describes probably nearly all of GW's supposed "competition" (with the possible exception of someone like Privateer).

The problem is that you're assuming that people will instantly just jump to the next game system. That's not necessarily the case. And even if they do, these places will have to time the market perfectly in order to scale up production to meet the increased demand without too much of a delay. That's a lot of "ifs" that need to go down almost perfectly and I just don't see it happening. I think the more likely scenario is that gaming becomes a little more "regional" thing. If that makes sense. I don't see wragaming surviving very well in my area if GW bites it, but in areas where other systems are already well established you could have hold outs. I think though, that the industry needs a large "boilerplate" type name to help drive continued "new" sales and I don't know that in the current era, anyone will be able to do that effectively.


This time edited because typos ... SO MANY TYPOS lol

Tycho wrote:

But we HAVEN'T seen the market "grow". The market has remained stable. We've simply seen more people taking a bite from the same size pie.

I'm going to strongly disagree.

By all means, claim the market has remained stable, but please provide sources indicating as such.

Plus, this is also not including any data about things like FFG's massive grownt, PP's growth, Spartan's growth, or Corvus Belli's growth.

There's more choices now, but really, the miniatures wargaming market is not a "growth" industry. lol A lot of times, you can have the smaller guys running around and "looking" more sucessful than they are because demand for their product is low. There's just enough demand that they can make money, but not so much demand that they have trouble meeting production quotas. That describes probably nearly all of GW's supposed "competition" (with the possible exception of someone like Privateer).

Claim its not a growth industry all you like, but everything is pointing in the opposite direction. Seems like there's plenty of demand to make money. As far I know, most of these companies are in fact having trouble keeping up with demand. One of the largest distributors in Australia reported Dystopian Wars outsold 40k 7th 7:1. Please, enlighten us further on the state of the market though. Sources would be nice, or even a hint of one.

The problem is that you're assuming that people will instantly just jump to the next game system. That's not necessarily the case. And even if they do, these places will have to time the market perfectly in order to scale up production to meet the increased demand without too much of a delay. That's a lot of "ifs" that need to go down almost perfectly and I just don't see it happening. I think the more likely scenario is that gaming becomes a little more "regional" thing. If that makes sense. I don't see wragaming surviving very well in my area if GW bites it, but in areas where other systems are already well established you could have hold outs. I think though, that the industry needs a large "boilerplate" type name to help drive continued "new" sales and I don't know that in the current era, anyone will be able to do that effectively.

I'm not making that assumption. I thought I already stated that should GW go under, it would be precisely because people have either left wargaming entirely, or moved their money to other sources within the industry. I thought it was clear that this would mean it wouldn't be instant, but a gradual shift. Oddly enough, one we're seeing now.

There will certainly be growing pains; some of them are experiencing them now with new releases, like Spartan and Corvus Belli with their new editions of their flagship games.

In the age of the internet, I don't think there needs to be a single company as large or dominant as GW to survive.

Plus, this is also not including any data about things like FFG's massive grownt, PP's growth, Spartan's growth, or Corvus Belli's growth.

It's also a quote that's lumped multiple games together and has a somewhat vague breakdown. Is 40K a collectable game, a dice game, or a miniatures game by their standards? Would you consider the various "clicks" games to be wargames in the same vein as 40k or Warmahordes? Really, I never said "gaming in general" is not a growth industry. I said miniature wargames. Games like Infinity, 40k etc. Your article doesn't really break that down or address that. I'll dig up one of my own later (it's a PITA to manage the links from my phone).

I'm not making that assumption. I thought I already stated that should GW go under, it would be precisely because people have either left wargaming entirely, or moved their money to other sources within the industry. I thought it was clear that this would mean it wouldn't be instant, but a gradual shift. Oddly enough, one we're seeing now.

And I've said *literally* the exact same thing. I'm just hedging my bets in the direction of more people leaving all together than on switching. Like I said, I don't think GW going under would "end" the industry. I just think that over-all it will cause a contraction.

One of the largest distributors in Australia reported Dystopian Wars outsold 40k 7th 7:1. Please, enlighten us further on the state of the market though. Sources would be nice, or even a hint of one.

In the age of the internet, I don't think there needs to be a single company as large or dominant as GW to survive.

So in a country where GW's artificial mark-up is borderline criminal, another game outsold it? Color me shocked. lol
Really though, both the quote about the Aussies as well as your quote about the internet are exactly what I'm talking about. Yeah, our segment if the industry will survive (as I've said repeatedly), but I think it will start to become a more localized kind of thing. Sure, in the age of the internet it gets easy to get whatever games and game supplies you want and you can even sometimes use it to find players. That's not the case in a lot of places though. There are a great deal of communities that absolutely depend on the LGS in order for those communities to exist. In too many places, once that avenue is gone (in this case because the store no longer supports the games), the community is gone. That's why I think it would cause an over-all contraction.

Tycho wrote:


It's also a quote that's lumped multiple games together and has a somewhat vague breakdown. Is 40K a collectable game, a dice game, or a miniatures game by their standards? Would you consider the various "clicks" games to be wargames in the same vein as 40k or Warmahordes? Really, I never said "gaming in general" is not a growth industry. I said miniature wargames. Games like Infinity, 40k etc. Your article doesn't really break that down or address that. I'll dig up one of my own later (it's a PITA to manage the links from my phone).

I await your study indicating wargames aren't growing.

And I've said *literally* the exact same thing. I'm just hedging my bets in the direction of more people leaving all together than on switching. Like I said, I don't think GW going under would "end" the industry. I just think that over-all it will cause a contraction.

It may temporarily cause a contraction, but I don't think it would be permanent. I see no reason rapidly growing games like Infinity or the Spartan selections couldn't easily grow to be more than what GW currently is. Between better costs, better advertisements/marketing, and general business acumen, I think a lot of smaller companies are poised to eat up any market share left by GW and then some.

I just don't see GW contributing to a whole lot in today's wargaming market. Especially outside of the UK. Then again, North Americans and Aussie/NZ tend to rely more on FLGS than GW stores, which naturally means there'll be easier and more diversity of games among those stores.

So in a country where GW's artificial mark-up is borderline criminal, another game outsold it? Color me shocked. lol
Really though, both the quote about the Aussies as well as your quote about the internet are exactly what I'm talking about. Yeah, our segment if the industry will survive (as I've said repeatedly), but I think it will start to become a more localized kind of thing. Sure, in the age of the internet it gets easy to get whatever games and game supplies you want and you can even sometimes use it to find players. That's not the case in a lot of places though. There are a great deal of communities that absolutely depend on the LGS in order for those communities to exist. In too many places, once that avenue is gone (in this case because the store no longer supports the games), the community is gone. That's why I think it would cause an over-all contraction.

I don't get what you're saying about becoming localized, or regional.

Tycho wrote:


It's also a quote that's lumped multiple games together and has a somewhat vague breakdown. Is 40K a collectable game, a dice game, or a miniatures game by their standards? Would you consider the various "clicks" games to be wargames in the same vein as 40k or Warmahordes? Really, I never said "gaming in general" is not a growth industry. I said miniature wargames. Games like Infinity, 40k etc. Your article doesn't really break that down or address that. I'll dig up one of my own later (it's a PITA to manage the links from my phone).

ICV2 considers GW products a "Non-Collectible Miniature Line" .

As of 10/22, they look like this:
Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Lines – Summer 2014
1 Warhammer 40k

2 Star Wars X-Wing

3 Warmachine

4 Star Trek Attack Wing

5 Hordes

 Blacksails wrote:

It may temporarily cause a contraction, but I don't think it would be permanent. I see no reason rapidly growing games like Infinity or the Spartan selections couldn't easily grow to be more than what GW currently is. Between better costs, better advertisements/marketing, and general business acumen, I think a lot of smaller companies are poised to eat up any market share left by GW and then some.

I just don't see GW contributing to a whole lot in today's wargaming market. Especially outside of the UK. Then again, North Americans and Aussie/NZ tend to rely more on FLGS than GW stores, which naturally means there'll be easier and more diversity of games among those stores.
l.

I think tycho has made some valid points. I think we too easily dismiss gw, for all it's faults and massive problems. And yes, I'm one of those that is very much less than impressed with their recent performance and see severe trouble ahead as a distinct possibility.

On the topic at hand though, To be fair, scale is a thing.

infinity is produced by a small company. Iirc they have sonething like twenty or thirty employees (and I think that includes freelance). Gw has something less that two thousand. Being cynical for a moment, one could argue Massive growth for the former arguably translates as a drop in the ocean for the latter.

And to be fair, I see cb's, pp's, wyrd etc growth (impressive as it is) less as a growth in the player base and more the same people branching out and playing multiple games. Here, the infinity player base is pretty much a subset of the warmachine players for example. Infinity seems to be a lot of peoples 'bit on the side', as opposed to a main game. And the warmachine community is smaller than that of gw. Probably by quite a bit.

Sometimes I think being outside the gw bubble gives us slightly skewed perspective relative to our own importance as 'non gw players'. For the record, I see historicals as the largest section of wargames, they tend to be Rather nonplussed at our antics.

Tycho has made some good points, I just don't agree entirely with the details.

We're largely in agreement about the broadest picture of the future. I don't dispute that.

GW is far and away the largest, I just don't think that losing them will have any sort of permanent or far reaching impact. I imagine many of the employees could easily be picked up by the dozens of smaller outfits, ranging from game plublishers to boutique model companies. Hell, some might start their own company, something ex-GW employees have been quite good at.

While I doubt any one company can absorb the void left by GW in all ways, I suspect 25 smaller companies of varying sizes could do it without too much struggle. We're already seeing it happen.

Miniature wargaming existed long before GW and it will continue long after GW fades away. They're currently top dog but when they eventually close their doors, another company will take their place.

I'm of the opinion that the initial months will see a downward turn for a number of companies and stores.

Those that survived will come out stronger than ever. Most of the FLGSs I've been to over the last year or two are significantly shifting away from GW as it is, almost universally as a result of their customer base moving to games like FoW, WM/H, Infinity and the like.

I think that my most local FLGS would come out much better almost right off the bat, as they could finally get rid of all the deadweight GW stuff, which leaves more room for their historicals/DBA stuff, as well as RPG stuff (books/Reaper minis, etc), FoW and Warmachine/Hordes. As it is right now, the trickle of GW sales are such that the owner has to keep it in stock, but it really does just sit forever and ever.

Basically the slower GW's decline is, the easier it is for companies to capture the lost market share and transition from a single company that used to dominate the market (GW during the late 90s and early 00s) to a market with many smaller participants.

Every price hike on a new product opens up profitable pricing levels for the competition who don't have GW's economies of scale. Every bad rules release is an opportunity for a game-play centred company to get some more ground. Every shunning of the internet is another opportunity for the social media savvy to get people interested in a new game.

A sudden collapse of GW would result in a scramble. I don't think any currently profitable miniature company who makes their own line would suddenly no longer be profitable, but I don't think the market as a whole would transition as nicely in such a scramble for GW's existing customer base/market share.

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I see Fantasy flight pick up the slack, X-wing and attack wing starter sets are perfect for the the kids that walk in the store, it appeals to the nerdy dad to give to their kids. Star Wars Armada will probably appeal to the more mature gamer. I wonder if they would come out with a battlestar galactica or Babylon 5 variant of X/Attack wing

 slowthar wrote:
I think people are somewhat underestimating the appeal that historicals might have if they were exposed to more younger players. Keep in mind that like 2/3rds of the console first person shooters are set in WW2 these days; it's a setting that's really become more and more mainstream in the past decade.

I personally never would've thought to look into a game like Bolt Action 5 years ago, but now I'm really intrigued.

You should give it a go - it's awesome. And you can get a fully usable army including rules for the cost of the GW battleforce.