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Perhaps they pay a mental high dividend to keep that share price as high as it is year on year?

I hope that whoever eventually owns GW, or GW's IP after the sky falls, is a gamer.

 Davylove21 wrote:
Perhaps they pay a mental high dividend to keep that share price as high as it is year on year?

I hope that whoever eventually owns GW, or GW's IP after the sky falls, is a gamer.

A gamer is not needed just an experienced company or manger with some ethics to not line there own nest at the cost of the company.

 Arschbombe wrote:

I don’t think we have enough information to set a Rage Quit Price Index where model prices <$2 means a codex is crap and model prices >$3 means a codex is good. We don’t know that every seller is a former player. Sometimes the prices are ridiculously low because the seller is a spouse, parent, or ex-landlord who cleaning out a closet.

I’ve got a stillborn Word Bearers army that I want to get rid of. Is it better to put up for sale now or wait until the next CSM codex is coming out?

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.


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Thulsa Doom wrote:

Anyone can blame currencies for the fall in stock price...honestly this is a cover up to poor sales...here are the key words to look for:

Yup. Who exactly were they trying to fool with this report?

NoggintheNog wrote:

And no, before anyone interjects, deathstorm doesn't count. its a limited release for some inexplicable reason known only to Tom Kirby and his financial advisers, and the starter box provides neither codex or a legal army.

Deathstorm is a sales promotion, they're selling those figures at a massively reduced price to try to get you (the consumer) to spend money on other things. That's probably why it's limited time.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Is this the moment that GW's crops wither and die, its children piteous deaths?

Like most people, I haven't a clue when it comes to net profits, gross profits, currency flow etc etc

So, in one friendly sound bite, can anybody answer this question: is this GW's inevitable decline and demise?

Too early to tell, but the stated reasons for the decline don't seem to mesh well with reality or expectations of that reality... so it's still too early to tell.

If GW were honest in their preamble:
"Our profit is down because revenue is down. Revenue is down because we've pissed off half our customer base, we don't do any market research to figure out how/why our customers are leaving or how to retain the ones we still have and we don't do any marketing to get new customers to make up for all the ones that left. Therefore, we expect our profits to continue to fall because we don't know what we're doing wrong in the first place and have no intention to try and figure it out. Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."

You hit the nail on the head there Toofast.

For the hell of it, my iphone has a stock ticker that I use to monitor GW's decent. While that essentially monitors investor's faith in the company moreso than the actual health of the company, there are things I see that tell me GW is heading for an eventual crash - some ways down the road.

Back in 2004, I see they had an enormous high (in the 800's), probably coming off the LotR series. This dropped down to around 120 or so in 2008, the lowest I see GW's stock price has gone.

It then rapidly rose until peaking around 2011 at around the 700's. There was a small surge coinciding with 6th's release, but since that time, the stock has been steadily dropping. What's disturbing is that 7th's release didn't even make a speed bump (like 6th) in the stock's slow grind downward.

From what I see, GW is going to hit the 300's in about 18 months; I suspect that is when GW will start have financial problems as it starts dipping into reserves and flat-lines on profits. In about 36 months, if there isn't some drastic changes, they'll be back in the 100's for stock value. If GW doesn't do something to turn things around by that time, I'm pretty sure they'll be on the brink of bankruptcy.

Honestly though, I do see GW *attempting* to make some changes to draw customers back, but it all seems too little, too late. Their prices are so high that offering discounts on things like Deathstorm still leaves their stuff overpriced. And while they are trying a few new things - like dataslates, rulebook-only releases, qucker release cycles and the like, it seems like a lot of their tactics leave the community going "lol, whut?" It's a lot of gak being thrown at the wall to see what sticks, instead of doing proper market research to find out what customers REALLY want.

Herzlos wrote:
I didn't think it was the wife's company, but she got a chunk of it somehow (IT manager?). I'll need to dig into the last report to see what I can find out.

The previous threads about the first half 2014 financial report mention that a Mrs Kirby is IT director, and possibly worked as a consultant on the website, but I've not found any citation for that yet. Does anyone know if there's somewhere we can find a list of current directors, or the name of the company that repackaged the webstore?

Red Technology Solutions Ltd did the webstore, they have two directors, a husband and wife by the looks of it (not the Kirbys!). Company is based in Oxfordshire.

A less-than-thorough Google didn't turn up a connection between Ms Lathbury/Kirby and Red or the individual directors

 Azreal13 wrote:
It actually makes me a tad angry to think that, assuming this interpretation is accurate, and let's face it, the facts fit it quite well, then Kirby has, in essence, put his own personal wealth ahead of the livelihoods of hundreds of people, their dependants and anyone who has any savings invested directly with GW or one of the institutions that do.

Kirby's fortune was definitely made at the expense of GW employees. Having a minimum wage with no raises ever for non-manager retail staff combined with massive layoffs to cut expenses meant that the earnings and dividends could be pushed up even higher. If we consider the LOTR boom, we have GW making the most money it ever did (especially when you adjust for inflation) and paying Kirby such high bonuses he made lists of overpaid CEOs in the financial news industry, we still have lower earnings per share than the current way GW is operating. Just think about that. Costs (and therefore people's jobs and livelihoods) have been slashed so far that GW was making more per share in their current state of declining volume and revenue than during the LOTR boom (well, until 2014 which saw two reports with massive declines in both revenue and profit).

People say things like "it's good when management owns stock in the company because then they have a personal interest for the stock to do well." And that's the case when the management will get their 40% or so of eps as a dividend and have to make up the rest of their value through reinvesting in the business and growing the equity in the business in terms of building assets, having a good cash position and growing sales channels and volume. And they can also make money off of options agreements where they are directly rewarded for increasing shareholder value by being able to exercise their options and buy shares at a lower price than the market rate. There's a way for management to be well compensated without endangering the long term viability of the company by looting through excessive dividends. What's going on here reminds me of the 2004-2007 distributions of Canadian Income Trusts and American Master Limited Partnerships when they were paying such high distributions that they were actually returning capital rather than paying earnings. When the economic down turn hit, that all completely fell apart as you can't weather storms when you've looted your treasury.

 Baragash wrote:
Red Technology Solutions Ltd did the webstore, they have two directors, a husband and wife by the looks of it (not the Kirbys!). Company is based in Oxfordshire.

A less-than-thorough Google didn't turn up a connection between Ms Lathbury/Kirby and Red or the individual directors

Hmm, must have got my wires crossed then.

 Toofast wrote:
If GW were honest in their prpreamble:
"Our profit is down because revenue is down. Revenue is down because we've pissed off half our customer base, we don't do any market research to figure out how/why our customers are leaving or how to retain the ones we still have and we don't do any marketing to get new customers to make up for all the ones that left. Therefore, we expect our profits to continue to fall because we don't know what we're doing wrong in the first place and have no intention to try and figure it out. Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."

Glorious, concise, captures my sentiments exactly; have an exalt.

GW really is a morbidly curious case in terms of business; their position really isn't that grim right now, and good management could improve their business dramatically; they aren't failing in the face of insurmountable odds, but declining owing to their own stupidity, doomed not for the cruelty of the gods and fate, but for their own inability, or lack of desire as some have postulated, to actually change "business as usual."

As a gamer, I just wish they'd either keel over and die and let someone take over with a modicum of business sense or start actually trying to right their ship. Instead, we're in the awkward and uncomfortable and depressing position of watching a beloved friend or family member get increasingly ill while denying anything is going on.

 Yodhrin wrote:

 Baragash wrote:
Red Technology Solutions Ltd did the webstore, they have two directors, a husband and wife by the looks of it (not the Kirbys!). Company is based in Oxfordshire.

A less-than-thorough Google didn't turn up a connection between Ms Lathbury/Kirby and Red or the individual directors

Hmm, must have got my wires crossed then.

In July they hired a different company (Soak Digital Ltd, according to Soak's website) to do 3 ecommerce sites for them, which is interesting in that maybe it suggests they weren't that impressed with the webstore, and also suggests the speculation above hasn't much substance (on the basis that if it were true you'd keep funnelling money their way rather than all the way out to Norwich where Soak appear to be based).

 techsoldaten wrote:

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.

Er, wut?

No sure why you think I am baiting you. I think you have an interesting theory, but I don't think you have all the data to support it. It would be great if you could get several years worth of data from Ebay that would allow you to track 40k-related items listed over time. I think it would very interesting to see how the listings vary over the course of a year and overlay GW's release schedule to see if there are patterns. Even then I think you might be limited to some conclusions about the popularity of a codex which would still only approximate quality.
.

 Toofast wrote:
I[...]Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."

This part kills me


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 Stormonu wrote:
It then rapidly rose until peaking around 2011 at around the 700's. There was a small surge coinciding with 6th's release, but since that time, the stock has been steadily dropping. What's disturbing is that 7th's release didn't even make a speed bump (like 6th) in the stock's slow grind downward.

7th IMO did way more harm than it did good. It may have addressed some gaming issues like a lot of people say and may actually *be* a much better product than 6th...but that doesn't change the fact that it showed us GW is willing to accelerate the entire rule cycle and start over again in half the time of their previous editions. It also finally eliminated the illusion that GW is working towards a better set of rules, instead focusing on swinging the pendulum wildly back-and-forth to try to force players to have to play keep-up. And I think these realizations have really dissuaded vets and new players alike, and as such I don't see this cycle reversing for a long time. I doubt Tom Kirby really cares though, all according to plan presumably.

 Toofast wrote:
If GW were honest in their prpreamble:
"Our profit is down because revenue is down. Revenue is down because we've pissed off half our customer base, we don't do any market research to figure out how/why our customers are leaving or how to retain the ones we still have and we don't do any marketing to get new customers to make up for all the ones that left. Therefore, we expect our profits to continue to fall because we don't know what we're doing wrong in the first place and have no intention to try and figure it out. Profits are broadly in line with what you would expect from a company that doesn't do market research or marketing in 2014."

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the winner of the internets for today.
But yes, no market research has to be the most problematic of their business tactics.

 Arschbombe wrote:

 techsoldaten wrote:

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.

Er, wut?

No sure why you think I am baiting you. I think you have an interesting theory, but I don't think you have all the data to support it. It would be great if you could get several years worth of data from Ebay that would allow you to track 40k-related items listed over time. I think it would very interesting to see how the listings vary over the course of a year and overlay GW's release schedule to see if there are patterns. Even then I think you might be limited to some conclusions about the popularity of a codex which would still only approximate quality.
.

Yeah, I don't plan on doing detailed research on this topic, but please feel free to devote your time to that effort now that you understand the concept.

My original post was meant to point out how secondary markets might be cannibalizing GW's new model sales, and how this relates to the company's recent earnings.

Most of the responses I have gotten from this thread conflate Codex quality with individual experiences instead of market perception. Like when you asked if it's time to sell your Word Bearer's army now or when the new Codex comes out, it sounds like you think I am trying to come up with a predictive model for pricing (which is not possible).

The only thing I could possibly offer you is the idea that, if you don't like GW, sell your models on eBay as cheaply as possible. If you do like GW, ask for something closer to new model prices. And sell the army, not individual units. What actually matters is whether or not you are blocking the sale of new products by offering cheaper alternatives.

I seriously believe if enough people offered to sell their armies online with a average price per model of $1, GW would be out of business in less than 12 months. Looking at their actual profits, this group of people does not need to be a very large, probably less than a thousand.

 Stormonu wrote:

From what I see, GW is going to hit the 300's in about 18 months; I suspect that is when GW will start have financial problems as it starts dipping into reserves and flat-lines on profits. In about 36 months, if there isn't some drastic changes, they'll be back in the 100's for stock value. If GW doesn't do something to turn things around by that time, I'm pretty sure they'll be on the brink of bankruptcy.

Stocks getting to this point would be pretty grim for GW.

For clarification, GW stocks being traded on the London stock exchange means their prices are reported in pence, not USD. Currently a stock price of between 100-199 pence is equivalent to roughly $1.50-$3.00 per share.

Shares are up nearly 14 pence today on higher than average volume (33k shares vs. 24k average). It's a low volume stock so a relatively large buy can swing the stock sharply up.

When GW revenue drops far enough for them to be unable to pay the same dividends, the price will drop as people ditch their investment.

That's when you'll see changes.

I presume a company like Hasbro is just waiting around for the current board to drive the company value down low enough for them to pick up a bargain.

 techsoldaten wrote:

 Arschbombe wrote:

 techsoldaten wrote:

You're just baiting me and already know what I am going to say. Say it for me, nicely this time.

Er, wut?

No sure why you think I am baiting you. I think you have an interesting theory, but I don't think you have all the data to support it. It would be great if you could get several years worth of data from Ebay that would allow you to track 40k-related items listed over time. I think it would very interesting to see how the listings vary over the course of a year and overlay GW's release schedule to see if there are patterns. Even then I think you might be limited to some conclusions about the popularity of a codex which would still only approximate quality.
.

Yeah, I don't plan on doing detailed research on this topic, but please feel free to devote your time to that effort now that you understand the concept.

My original post was meant to point out how secondary markets might be cannibalizing GW's new model sales, and how this relates to the company's recent earnings.

Most of the responses I have gotten from this thread conflate Codex quality with individual experiences instead of market perception. Like when you asked if it's time to sell your Word Bearer's army now or when the new Codex comes out, it sounds like you think I am trying to come up with a predictive model for pricing (which is not possible).

The only thing I could possibly offer you is the idea that, if you don't like GW, sell your models on eBay as cheaply as possible. If you do like GW, ask for something closer to new model prices. And sell the army, not individual units. What actually matters is whether or not you are blocking the sale of new products by offering cheaper alternatives.

I seriously believe if enough people offered to sell their armies online with a average price per model of $1, GW would be out of business in less than 12 months. Looking at their actual profits, this group of people does not need to be a very large, probably less than a thousand.

Ebay has been around a LONG time now, and for as long as I can remember there have been GW products on ebay. However, there are some people (like me) who will always prefer NIB so they don't have to fix the mistakes of other people. My time is worth something, and if I have to strip, clean mold lines and re base 10 models to save $10-15, it just isn't worth it. Also, some people enjoy building models and don't want to buy things that have already been built. The problem is as GW continues to raise prices and make people quit because of their terrible rules, even people like me will eventually turn to ebay and the second hand market in general. Whether it will be enough to really affect their sales is up for debate. GW didn't have a problem selling stuff 10 years ago and there were just as many armies on ebay then as there are now.

AlexRae wrote:
When GW revenue drops far enough for them to be unable to pay the same dividends, the price will drop as people ditch their investment.

That's when you'll see changes.

I'm not actually sure we will, at least not on the same scale as we did back in January when the first drop in revenue and profits came to light. I'm of the opinion that many of the investors who would cut and run have already been shaken loose, and that the solid majority of stakeholders now are hunkered down and prepared to try and ride things out. Any of the institutions wishing to divest themselves of their share will likely do so off the floor, as dumping 15% or so of a company's shares onto the trading floor will drop the value of their own investment, which just leaves Kirby and a bunch of smaller scale investors who have decided to wait and see. Of course, if the results are really bad, then the whole situation will alter.

I presume a company like Hasbro is just waiting around for the current board to drive the company value down low enough for them to pick up a bargain.

One can hope! Although, on the grounds of better the devil you know, I'd rather the finances drove the board to stand down and we got some more forward thinking individuals in to replace them, rather than end up with 40Klix.

Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?

Because without numbers available "selling out" is meaningless.

We have seen some LE codexes hang around for weeks with only a few hundred declared available.

Smaug sold out in minutes, but there were only a few hundred available, and I reckoned, using GW's average production costs, that it only made them £30K. For a company that needs to be turning over £110m+ to make a profit, that's just a tiny amount.

 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?

How many units are being sold?

Its not hard to sell something out internationally if you're only putting 500 (hypothetical only, not the actual or guessed amount) out there. We don't know the actual volume of sales, so its largely irrelevant if they sold out or not.

*Edit * Oh for...44 secs.

Foiled again.

 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?

Its because they don't sell out. Its artificial hype, they've done it for a few years now, they do smaller runs and they sell out to create hype. The webstore "sold out" is particularly dishonest in the sense that they are given an allotment of product despite the fact it is the most direct source the company has.

Just to make it easier, lets say they give the webstore 150 copies of something for preorder, and give each of their stores 15 copies on release day. The webstore is all of north America, so even 2 or 3 pre orders from each GW store alone will run their stock out and generate hype to go buy it day of.

To make it worse we don't know the numbers, for all we know the webstore gets 15 copies as well. All in an effort to funnel people into their sell bot stores.

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 Azreal13 wrote:
Because without numbers available "selling out" is meaningless.

We have seen some LE codexes hang around for weeks with only a few hundred declared available.

Smaug sold out in minutes, but there were only a few hundred available, and I reckoned, using GW's average production costs, that it only made them £30K. For a company that needs to be turning over £110m+ to make a profit, that's just a tiny amount.

To be exact they only had 200 available worldwide.

Ironically for the same price you can get one the same size that is already painted from WETA workshop.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Is this the moment that GW's crops wither and die, its children piteous deaths?

Like most people, I haven't a clue when it comes to net profits, gross profits, currency flow etc etc

So, in one friendly sound bite, can anybody answer this question: is this GW's inevitable decline and demise?

Decline? Yes.

Demise? Eventually.

 Blacksails wrote:

 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?

How many units are being sold?

Its not hard to sell something out internationally if you're only putting 500 (hypothetical only, not the actual or guessed amount) out there. We don't know the actual volume of sales, so its largely irrelevant if they sold out or not.

*Edit * Oh for...44 secs.

Foiled again.

That's 30-15 to me in ninja tennis I think?

 Colpicklejar wrote:
Can I ask a dumb question? How is it that GW can be doing bad financially when (what I have seen) their every release has instantly sold out? I mean we had people talking about buying two or three Deathstorm boxes at a time, and people buying tactical objective decks seconds into their release. What's the deal?

New products could be doing great guns (subject to the "false" supply comments above), but underlying sales could have dropped off a cliff.