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techsoldaten wrote:
I seriously believe if enough people offered to sell their armies online with a average price per model of $1, GW would be out of business in less than 12 months. Looking at their actual profits, this group of people does not need to be a very large, probably less than a thousand.

If we set concerted efforts aside, I still think you are pointing out an interesting situation that GW has created.

In going after lower volume sold to less people at higher prices, GW has created a very large ex-customer base that have existing products they no longer use. And at the same time, the higher prices means that there is more room to sell second hand at a higher price. Their actions have basically created competition from their ex customers. The only thing that's missing though is any data at all about how big the second hand market actually is. What the total of auctions for GW product that finish on eBay is. How much product changes hands via private sales in person and on message boards. It's entirely possible that GW has already felt the impact of the second hand market they basically created by both turning customers into ex-customers and driving prices high enough that people will take the time to sell it rather than have it sit in a closet.

Though perhaps GW doesn't really consider this competition because they seem very, very focused on the success of new releases over existing products. In the Chapterhouse Studios lawsuit, GW provided some sales numbers and other than some basic space marine stuff like tactical squads and battleforce boxes, the sales were high on new releases and then rapidly dropped off after that.

So maybe all this second hand product doesn't actually impact GW's sales of new releases that much. Other than it diverts money away from new product and into the secondary market.

AlexRae wrote:
I presume a company like Hasbro is just waiting around for the current board to drive the company value down low enough for them to pick up a bargain.

Hasbro doesn't buy hurting companies and turn them around. Throughout their entire history as a company, they have only ever bought out successful companies and their management has never, ever made any noise about changing that plan or bargain hunting. GW simply doesn't fit the profile of the type of company Hasbro likes to buy. If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.

Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.

Which is self defeating, considering how much money they've been bleeding to legal fees.

That also fits the other possibility, is that they now have a legal dept with fewer demands on their time, and therefore can chase down these lower priorities now CHS is done.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.

Going after recasters, while extremely difficult and most-likely fruitless, is at least WAY more sane than going after third-party bits makers/children's book authors and turning yourself into a villain in the public's eyes!

frozenwastes wrote: If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.

After the recent Days of Wonder- Asmodee-Fantasy Flight Games merger, they could be a contender.

Steelmage99 wrote:

frozenwastes wrote: If someone buys GW out, it'll be someone else.

After the recent Days of Wonder- Asmodee-Fantasy Flight Games merger, they could be a contender.

I'm actually not so sure about that. Ffg isn't really a miniature manufacturer. Even with xwing they don't really have a wargame target audience. Xwing is more of a board game style wargame than a true wargame in the traditional sense. I can't see them keeping the wargame in its present form. It would likely be shredded down to boardgames, the lcg and rpg

What better company for a game manufacturer that isn't really a mini manufacturer to acquire than an organisation which owns literally every link in the production chain and can support enough volume for global sales?

 frozenwastes wrote:


If we set concerted efforts aside, I still think you are pointing out an interesting situation that GW has created.

In going after lower volume sold to less people at higher prices, GW has created a very large ex-customer base that have existing products they no longer use. And at the same time, the higher prices means that there is more room to sell second hand at a higher price. Their actions have basically created competition from their ex customers. The only thing that's missing though is any data at all about how big the second hand market actually is. What the total of auctions for GW product that finish on eBay is. How much product changes hands via private sales in person and on message boards. It's entirely possible that GW has already felt the impact of the second hand market they basically created by both turning customers into ex-customers and driving prices high enough that people will take the time to sell it rather than have it sit in a closet.

Though perhaps GW doesn't really consider this competition because they seem very, very focused on the success of new releases over existing products. In the Chapterhouse Studios lawsuit, GW provided some sales numbers and other than some basic space marine stuff like tactical squads and battleforce boxes, the sales were high on new releases and then rapidly dropped off after that.

So maybe all this second hand product doesn't actually impact GW's sales of new releases that much. Other than it diverts money away from new product and into the secondary market.

Got me thinking.. so I went and checked my ebay account.. since 2004 I've sold somewhere in the region of £14K of stuff.. I'd say 90-95% of that was 2nd hand GW stuff I no longer wanted, or had to sell for funds. Scary thought if you start multiplying that by former or even current GW fans.. I've probably brought a couple of grands worth this year as well... still totally active but also selling any excess.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.

Which is self defeating, considering how much money they've been bleeding to legal fees.

The reason that GW bled such a lot into legal fees the past few years is that their case against Chapter House was fundamentally flawed, unjust and unwinnable.

GW's case against a blatant recaster is open and shut.

Back to the topic of the second hand market.

IMO the majority of people who want to buy secondhand are different to GW's target market. And they are the kind of people who want rules as well as models, but they don't want secondhand old rules, they want the latest rules much cheaper. (To the extent that they want the new rules at all, rather than wanting a completely revised set of rules that hasn't been issued yet.)

Therefore I don't see the secondhand market undermining sales of the new expensive models, nor do I see it rejuvenating the disgruntled veterans like myself.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.

Unfortunately for GW the websites for these guys were just glorified catalogues, they do all their business via word of mouth and emails, and unlike the entertainment industry GW doesn't have the clout to force Google to knock search results for recasters down their rankings. Yet again GW are akin to a plumber on the Titanic tightening up a leaky pipe to stop it sinking; recasters only exist because GW's prices and availability shenanigans have gotten so bad that some guys in China can afford to cast up GW's products in polyurethane resin and ship them anywhere in the world for a third of what GW charge and still make a tidy profit for themselves - China aren't suddenly going to start respecting international copyright law, GW can't affect people's ability to do business with recasters beyond causing them mild inconvenience, nor do they have the influence to attack the problem through governments or 'net infrastructure, literally the only thing GW controls in this situation are the prices they themselves charge.

Of course even if they recognise that, they'll doubtless react in the same way the entertainment industry has, because the idea that these companies just have to accept reality whether they like it or not and actually compete with file sharing/recasters seems to just make them get angrier and sink even further into denial.

It's the legal system, not the prices.

 Morathi's Darkest Sin wrote:

Got me thinking.. so I went and checked my ebay account.. since 2004 I've sold somewhere in the region of £14K of stuff.. I'd say 90-95% of that was 2nd hand GW stuff I no longer wanted, or had to sell for funds. Scary thought if you start multiplying that by former or even current GW fans.. I've probably brought a couple of grands worth this year as well... still totally active but also selling any excess.

I don't think selling 14k over 10 years is typical at all. I think the average person who gets into a GW game, gets out and sells their stuff second hand is probably going to be in the few hundred range, if that.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It's the legal system, not the prices.

Sorry not quite following, can you clarify?

There used to be a prolific recaster in the UK several years ago when prices were lower. He was successful because actually the cost of recasting the pieces is pretty low. He didn't need high FW prices or low resin prices to make a profit. Unfortunately for him, he got nailed by the UK legal system (helped along by some DakkaDakka members).

The reason why Chinese recasters are successful is not pricing, it is the difficult of attacking them legally.

 Azreal13 wrote:
What better company for a game manufacturer that isn't really a mini manufacturer to acquire than an organisation which owns literally every link in the production chain and can support enough volume for global sales?

Yeah, I was thinking along those lines.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The reason why Chinese recasters are successful is not pricing, it is the difficult of attacking them legally.

To be fair, I think £30 Revenant Titans may have something to do with it too.

Another point about the prices is the combination with their location. Average wages in Shanghai (wages vary a lot between provinces in China, and most of the recasters are based in Shanghai) are around £7,000-8,000 a year plus maybe another £1k in bonuses for white collar workers. And with GW shops there having the same prices as in the UK, and the general attitude towards fake products, the recasters are able to build up a decent base of local, repeat customers who ensure a stable base income. One of the bigger operations (whose shop name GW, ironically, now seems to be copying :p) even have a brick and mortar store. Quite fascinating, really.

People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?

 Kilkrazy wrote:
There used to be a prolific recaster in the UK several years ago when prices were lower. He was successful because actually the cost of recasting the pieces is pretty low. He didn't need high FW prices or low resin prices to make a profit. Unfortunately for him, he got nailed by the UK legal system (helped along by some DakkaDakka members).

The reason why Chinese recasters are successful is not pricing, it is the difficult of attacking them legally.

Right, I did mention that in my post. My point was that the issue for GW is not whether recasters can be successful individually, it's whether recasters as a group impact GW's success. Just like with file sharing, there will always be some portion of a target market that will, if they can, buy cheap knockoffs, and just as with file sharing there is a factor outwith GW's control which makes it essentially impossible to stop. GW can either accept that and use the factors they do control to minimise the number of people buying knockoffs, or keep wasting time taking ineffectual swipes at the recasters while their business practices and pricing structure drives more and more people to buy from them.

People can debate the morality of it all they like, these things exist and are not going away, but what the whole file sharing stramash has shown is that if you make things available in a convenient way on terms the customer finds appealing and at a reasonable price, you can successfully "compete with free"(or in this case, much much cheaper).

 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?

A lot of machinery, a lot of moulds, a lot of stuff they do own, at least within the scope of wargaming, and a level of customer awareness beyond anything else within the sector.

Plus a large customer base and a substantial number of customers champing at the bit to re-engage should things improve.

 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?

Well, the IP obviously, and one of the important words there is "may".

But you bring up a relevant point. One of the really horrible possible outcomes might be that GW hangs on over the abyss for the next 10 or so years. Slowly dropping in value on a downward trajectory, and dragging the IP itself down too.
If they then go out of business the IP might be worth nothing.

 Azreal13 wrote:

 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?

A lot of machinery, a lot of moulds, a lot of stuff they do own, at least within the scope of wargaming, and a level of customer awareness beyond anything else within the sector.

Plus a large customer base and a substantial number of customers champing at the bit to re-engage should things improve.

A lot of moulds for products they may not own the IP for.
Alot of machinery in england, when they will most likely want to produce in china.
And a brand thats almost toxic.

A somewhat pessimistic view IMO.

 Azreal13 wrote:
A somewhat pessimistic view IMO.

Maybe. But if I'm right things don't look good, do they.
Could 40k carry on with the books we have. and third party manufactures?

 Azreal13 wrote:

 loki old fart wrote:
People keep saying if the share price drops enough, hasbro or another company may step in and buy GW.
Why would they? Since the chapterhouse fiasco, whats left to buy?

A lot of machinery, a lot of moulds, a lot of stuff they do own, at least within the scope of wargaming, and a level of customer awareness beyond anything else within the sector.

Plus a large customer base and a substantial number of customers champing at the bit to re-engage should things improve.

I wish I had pictures of some of the industrial auctions I have been too. You would be amazed at how little machinery, molds and other stuff that companies own actually goes for. The last one I saw had the entire assembly line cut up and loaded into dump trucks for scrap metal without anyone bothering to consider even reusing it.

The IP and customer base looks to be becoming worth less and less each year. Many of their old customers have become happily engaged with other companies - and have grown out of their Grim Dark youth.

 Yodhrin wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
Worth noting that GW seem to have gone after recasters much harder than usual recently - there was a thread recently about one site closing down altogether, and another, much larger, site I browse frequently for other goods (but also look at the prices of some recast kits and wonder how much development costs really are) has seemed to have fewer recasts on sale, and those that remain on sale frequently have no pictures and some message to the effect of they're keeping their heads down because GW are on the march.

Could well be a symptom of something they previously considered not worth investing significant effort into, but are now increasingly chasing down anything they perceive as a possibility of scraping together an extra few thousand in revenue.

Unfortunately for GW the websites for these guys were just glorified catalogues, they do all their business via word of mouth and emails, and unlike the entertainment industry GW doesn't have the clout to force Google to knock search results for recasters down their rankings. Yet again GW are akin to a plumber on the Titanic tightening up a leaky pipe to stop it sinking; recasters only exist because GW's prices and availability shenanigans have gotten so bad that some guys in China can afford to cast up GW's products in polyurethane resin and ship them anywhere in the world for a third of what GW charge and still make a tidy profit for themselves - China aren't suddenly going to start respecting international copyright law, GW can't affect people's ability to do business with recasters beyond causing them mild inconvenience, nor do they have the influence to attack the problem through governments or 'net infrastructure, literally the only thing GW controls in this situation are the prices they themselves charge.

Of course even if they recognise that, they'll doubtless react in the same way the entertainment industry has, because the idea that these companies just have to accept reality whether they like it or not and actually compete with file sharing/recasters seems to just make them get angrier and sink even further into denial.

Exalted. This is incredibly true.

 loki old fart wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
A somewhat pessimistic view IMO.

Maybe. But if I'm right things don't look good, do they.
Could 40k carry on with the books we have. and third party manufactures?

Sure. Most games never die. At least, not within any sort of measurable time period. You can still find people playing almost everything...granted, once the retail viability passes, then it becomes a cult classic, only known to the hip and cool.

If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.

Recast models are actually only a good value for $100+ pieces. On cheaper units, often the price difference is quite small, or, even cheaper to get legit models.

 Azreal13 wrote:
If GW shut down tomorrow, we'd have an exciting and engaging fan made ruleset and a solidly balanced set of codexes by Easter.

If thats the case roll on GW's demise.
Because the rubbish GW's put out isn't balanced, exciting, or engaging.