Ok,
Its getting hard to ignore all the latest posts about what is happening with the empire that is Gw. We've had insane restrictions on what the independents can do, stores being closed worldwide, Gamesdays being cancelled, totally inept sales presentations, 'major' shareholders selling their shares. Also add in all the other nonsense that they've done over the past few years.
So what does it add up to?
It is sounding more and more like the high ups are getting to sell the company, which in one sense may be a good thing. The problem is that when a company is bought out the first thing the new owners do is cost cutting, which usually means redundancies, and closures, and probably higher prices to boot.
Hell, we all may be barking up the wrong kneck of the woods, but you must agree that GW is currently staggering around like a punch drunk boxer at this moment in time, surely?
I've been told GW is in talks to sell off the company. A lot of people have been discussing the possibilities, and I've been sitting on this info for a little while. In case it had been leaked to only my source, I didn't want to chance getting them in trouble, but with so many people discussing it, it's probably safe to discuss now. But I do have sources saying GW is looking to sell off. Pretre, feel free to add me as a 'monger on this-I don't have a timeframe for you, but I'd imagine the next year or two. I'm confident enough in my source to put my name on your thread.
Ugh, cut and paste on here puts all my user info too and requires a bunch of deletions.
Right. GW bans online retailers, bans bits, raises prices past where they could concievably be raised, hobbit is a bust, production facility in Memphis closes, Tau supply debacle, downsizes stores to one man operations with limited hours, discourages gaming in-store, finecrap all within the last 1.5 years and just today the 3 largest investors are pulling out of GW. And it's "just" the internet.
Right. GW bans online retailers, bans bits, raises prices past where they could concievably be raised, hobbit is a bust, production facility in Memphis closes, Tau supply debacle, downsizes stores to one man operations with limited hours, discourages gaming in-store, finecrap all within the last 1.5 years and just today the 3 largest investors are pulling out of GW. And it's "just" the internet.
I've been told GW is in talks to sell off the company.
What exactly does this mean in the context of GW being a publicly traded company. Do you mean a group of shareholders acting in unison, a single shareholder with a large percentage of shares?
"GW" is not owned by a single person or wholly owned by a single group of shareholders, as I understand the current situation. Thus "GW" cannot be in talks to sell itself.
Companies "takeover" publicly traded companies all the time. Sometimes just by buying shares in the open market, sometimes by making an offer that gets voted on by the shareholders at an annual or special meeting of the shareholders...it isnt anything exceptional.
Quite often, if a majority holder (like Kirby) is interested in selling his holdings, they will look to sell them as a whole chunk, either as part of the company sold to a larger company (or even a private company who takes it off the market) or selling all of his shares to one party as opposed to attempting to sell them off on the open market.
I've been told GW is in talks to sell off the company.
What exactly does this mean in the context of GW being a publicly traded company. Do you mean a group of shareholders acting in unison, a single shareholder with a large percentage of shares?
"GW" is not owned by a single person or wholly owned by a single group of shareholders, as I understand the current situation. Thus "GW" cannot be in talks to sell itself.
Typically it means approval by the board of directors to allow the companies stock to be frozen in price and then paid off. When Anheuser Busch was sold to InBev, they basically paid off all the shareholders at a predetermined price. Let's assume the share price is 650 pence per share. They have 31.73 million shares. That works out to 206 million pounds of value. Now as you sell shares off, the per share price will go down because the market is flooded. What typically happens in a buy out is that the stock price will be negotiated to prevent a market surge or plunge based on the announcement of an acquisition.
As the stock price has been going up recently with the revenues remaining basically flat, one could speculate that investors are trying to get in before a potential buy out or they know something we don't, like a major licensing deal. I would bet that if a company could come up with 150 million pounds by the end of the year, they may be able to purchase GW.
Right. GW bans online retailers, bans bits, raises prices past where they could concievably be raised, hobbit is a bust, production facility in Memphis closes, Tau supply debacle, downsizes stores to one man operations with limited hours, discourages gaming in-store, finecrap all within the last 1.5 years and just today the 3 largest investors are pulling out of GW. And it's "just" the internet.
OK im not defending GW, just commenting that the things you have strung together dont neccasarily add up to anything out of the ordinary.
The online retail ban is not new, GW are just tightening it up. From the GW perspective this could be a good/smart move.
According to GW the crackdown on bitz resellers is to protect the coherence of their marketing, packaging and product presentation. From the GW perspective this also makes sense and in reality it probably will account to exactly nothing in the big scheme of things other than make bitz prices slightly higher.
Downsizing stores, limiting hours and making the one man are the kind of steps all big retailers take to cut costs. If it ends up making the stores more profitable then that is a good thing for GW.
Discouraging veterans from gaming in the store and changing the focus of the store seems short sighted but if the stores are losing money then would you have them carry on as normal? It is certainly not the approach I would take but I dont run the company.
The fact that the Tau have sold out is in contradiction to your assertion that prices have been raised beyond what is conceivable.
Would you keep the Memphis facility open if it was excess capacity? We dont know the details of the GW supply chain so it is impossible to know what factors went into the decision to close the Memphis factory. Did Memphis make a lot of metal models? Those arent needed anymore. Did their plastic injection machines become outdated?
So from your list that leaves finecast, which by any serious standard was a disaster but people are still buying it, the hobbit which appears to be a flop and your vague statement about 3 investors pulling out.
I assume that those investors must have sold their stock to someone. There are many reasons why investors change their holdings and you cannot really make any kind of inference from the statement you provided. It could be because they think GW is heading for disaster or it could be that GW's future plans dont match their investment strategy.
I think it is just business as usual. GW does not cater to the internet crowd (foolish imo) so there is a lot of butthurt and consternation. Their products are expensive so many of us cant buy everything we want which is also aggravating and the internet is great at amplifying negativity whether it has real basis or not. I think there is more "hope" that GW will fail than "reason" for it to fail.
JWhex wrote: The fact that the Tau have sold out is in contradiction to your assertion that prices have been raised beyond what is conceivable.
To be fair, I don't think they sold out because of higher than normal demand, I think it was because they didn't supply the amount they normally do. If I normally ship 100 units for a new release and only ship 20 this time, just because I sold out doesn't mean anything. I would normally sell 50 of the 100 units, but only sold 20, thus loosing out on 30 units worth of sales even though I sold out. Selling out of an item means either the product was more popular than normal or you didn't provide as much. I'm betting the second.
I've been told GW is in talks to sell off the company.
What exactly does this mean in the context of GW being a publicly traded company. Do you mean a group of shareholders acting in unison, a single shareholder with a large percentage of shares?
"GW" is not owned by a single person or wholly owned by a single group of shareholders, as I understand the current situation. Thus "GW" cannot be in talks to sell itself.
Typically it means approval by the board of directors to allow the companies stock to be frozen in price and then paid off. When Anheuser Busch was sold to InBev, they basically paid off all the shareholders at a predetermined price. Let's assume the share price is 650 pence per share. They have 31.73 million shares. That works out to 206 million pounds of value. Now as you sell shares off, the per share price will go down because the market is flooded. What typically happens in a buy out is that the stock price will be negotiated to prevent a market surge or plunge based on the announcement of an acquisition.
As the stock price has been going up recently with the revenues remaining basically flat, one could speculate that investors are trying to get in before a potential buy out or they know something we don't, like a major licensing deal. I would bet that if a company could come up with 150 million pounds by the end of the year, they may be able to purchase GW.
Thanks for that example and good explanation. If the stock is presently going up it doesnt seem like right now is the best time freeze the price and sell it off, or am I missing something?
JWhex wrote: The fact that the Tau have sold out is in contradiction to your assertion that prices have been raised beyond what is conceivable.
To be fair, I don't think they sold out because of higher than normal demand, I think it was because they didn't supply the amount they normally do. If I normally ship 100 units for a new release and only ship 20 this time, just because I sold out doesn't mean anything. I would normally sell 50 of the 100 units, but only sold 20, thus loosing out on 30 units worth of sales even though I sold out. Selling out of an item means either the product was more popular than normal or you didn't provide as much. I'm betting the second.
Why would GW have provided less than normal for a release? My understanding is that they have very low costs associated with producing an additional unit, all the costs are incurred upfront in design and mold production. Why would they attempt to cut costs by producing an abnormally small amount of Tau boxes? Could you help me understand?
JWhex wrote: The fact that the Tau have sold out is in contradiction to your assertion that prices have been raised beyond what is conceivable.
To be fair, I don't think they sold out because of higher than normal demand, I think it was because they didn't supply the amount they normally do. If I normally ship 100 units for a new release and only ship 20 this time, just because I sold out doesn't mean anything. I would normally sell 50 of the 100 units, but only sold 20, thus loosing out on 30 units worth of sales even though I sold out. Selling out of an item means either the product was more popular than normal or you didn't provide as much. I'm betting the second.
Well if the price as you put it was "beyond conceivable" they would not have sold out in any event. I am not arguing the price is OK and in fact the current prices are beyond what I would conceivably pay myself. Clearly the demand for the Tau is higher than GW expected and I am not buying that the shortage is some conspiracy to make the models appear more popular than they really are.
Comparatively speaking, in recent months there has been a blitzkrieg of GW products. Perhaps they underestimated how much Tau people would buy because they expected that people would have spent a lot of money on recent releases (I acknowledge this to be PURE speculation on my part).
It is also possible that a lot of "big robot" fans are crossing over to buy the riptide and even other suits, and GW completely underestimated this factor.
Bolognesus wrote: ...Because you really fail to see how not having enough stock to take full advantage of impulse buys around release time is bad? hmmkay.
They don't have enough stock because people bought it all. What part of this don't people understand? "Our stuff is too popular" is generally speaking not a real problem.
Bolognesus wrote: ...Because you really fail to see how not having enough stock to take full advantage of impulse buys around release time is bad? hmmkay.
They don't have enough stock because people bought it all. What part of this don't people understand? "Our stuff is too popular" is generally speaking not a real problem.
Hey! I've got three of this thing that everyone wants, but I'm not going to say that, just announce I'm selling them.
*three sales later*
Wow, I, sold out, what an unprecedented success!!!!!!! !! !!!
"We didn't make enough models" might be bad in some cases. "We didn't make enough models to meet the unexpectedly huge demand for our new product" doesn't seem like one of those cases.
It should be pointed out there isn't any sales data thus far to prove or disprove whether the shortage was due to high demand or not. The only oblique reference I have seen to sales data has been from Rich, the owner of Wayland, who said that the Tau sales thus far were similar in volume to Dark Eldar and Grey Knight releases.
Once again, we have no idea of the production figures, the sales figures or demand. Tau might have been super-popular or GW might not have made enough, or the rumoured supply chain issues might have caused a bottleneck.
Flashman wrote: Hmm... would new owners try to grow the company though or just carry on milking the cow?
The question is whether the cow will survive the rate of milking.
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
If I was going to take it over that is what I would do. I would also be a lot friendlier to FLGSs and veteran fans, on the basis that my GW shops can't be everywhere and I need people to help spread the word. Earned channels are much more effective than bought channels.
Reports from those retailers (some rather substantial ones amongst them) who claim to have seen good, but not all that exceptional interest for a 40K release seem to belie that, however.
Bolognesus wrote: Reports from those retailers (some rather substantial ones amongst them) who claim to have seen good, but not all that exceptional interest for a 40K release seem to belie that, however.
Which reports are those? In my area, the reports are "Tau are extremely popular." I would say this is at least the most popular release locally since Dark Eldar.
Right. GW bans online retailers, bans bits, raises prices past where they could concievably be raised, hobbit is a bust, production facility in Memphis closes, Tau supply debacle, downsizes stores to one man operations with limited hours, discourages gaming in-store, finecrap all within the last 1.5 years and just today the 3 largest investors are pulling out of GW. And it's "just" the internet.
All of the things you've listed are symptoms of a cause, not the other way around. GW is owned by hedge funds mostly (or so I'm told). GW is not in the gaming industry. GW's not in the model making industry. Hell, they don't even represent a hobby, ironically spelled or otherwise.
Their industry is increasing their stock price. This breeds the classically unsustainable do-more-with-less-every-year attitude that leeches into most publicly traded companies.
So yes, Darkness is correct: Nothing is happening.
"We didn't make enough models" might be bad in some cases. "We didn't make enough models to meet the unexpectedly huge demand for our new product" doesn't seem like one of those cases.
It should be pointed out there isn't any sales data thus far to prove or disprove whether the shortage was due to high demand or not. The only oblique reference I have seen to sales data has been from Rich, the owner of Wayland, who said that the Tau sales thus far were similar in volume to Dark Eldar and Grey Knight releases.
Once again, we have no idea of the production figures, the sales figures or demand. Tau might have been super-popular or GW might not have made enough, or the rumoured supply chain issues might have caused a bottleneck.
Yes - the Tau sales was a thing...nothing more, than just that a thing.
Though, in the grand scheme of things - selling out is not generally a good thing. If you sell out, the next customer who comes into your store who wants that item can not buy it. You have lost that sale on that day. He might come back in two weeks time when you get more in - but then again, he might not. If you rent or payroll comes due and you are short by $20 between then and now - it has even more immediate impact as your empty shelves are only costing you money and not making any money.
Now, you have two different options in terms of interpreting the sell out. One is high demand, the other is low production (or a combination of the two). If demand was higher than they expected that would seem to point towards a bad thing. The bad thing isn't the high demand - rather that GW was caught unaware that there would be high demand. That would go back to the short lead time between preorders and releases. If a preorder was placed online a month before a release, GW and their various retail partners could arrange stock and orders to meet the high demand. Production can be shifted, and stock reallocated in order to compensate.
If the problem was low production and stable demand - then again, you have another bad thing. Again, management not knowing how low they could run the production lines to avoid having a warehouse full of stock at the end of the year or a misunderstanding of the actual production needs that caused them to decide to shut down Memphis operations (and move additional workload back onto their plant in the UK).
So...yes, we don't know what kind of a thing selling out of Tau was - but generally speaking at best it was a thing. At worse it was a bad thing. I don't think much of a case can be made for it being an actual good thing (without discounting the issues that I stated above).
Slipstream wrote: Ok,
Its getting hard to ignore all the latest posts about what is happening with the empire that is Gw. We've had insane restrictions on what the independents can do, stores being closed worldwide, Gamesdays being cancelled, totally inept sales presentations, 'major' shareholders selling their shares. Also add in all the other nonsense that they've done over the past few years.
So what does it add up to?
It is sounding more and more like the high ups are getting to sell the company, which in one sense may be a good thing. The problem is that when a company is bought out the first thing the new owners do is cost cutting, which usually means redundancies, and closures, and probably higher prices to boot.
Hell, we all may be barking up the wrong kneck of the woods, but you must agree that GW is currently staggering around like a punch drunk boxer at this moment in time, surely?
The only way they can go at this point is up or out.
Get rid of some of the corperation scum and money grubbers, hire some talent, and add two parts give a gak, and it will be like nothing happened, and the last five years were a dream.
Thier biggest issue is that they have lost thier way.
Whatever happens on the business side, I hope the studio is able to continue it's work wether it's with old or new owners and management. I must admit 6th edition and the recent codices feel good to me. YMMV about some design decisions with the models, but overall, the product itself is nice atm, just the salesmen are a catastrophy.
JWhex wrote: Selling out of a product is certainly not the BEST thing but it is a good thing compared to average sales.
There is no way to know that.
If GW was short on production (either due to intentionally shorting it, or due to production/shipping bottlenecks) then it may have only been "average" sales of a new release. Not being able to provide for that is not a good thing at all. For all we know, it might have even been less than average sales and GW is using internal numbers to project lower production needs...so it could be just shooting too low (and in this case, hitting one's own foot in the process).
I've been told GW is in talks to sell off the company.
What exactly does this mean in the context of GW being a publicly traded company. Do you mean a group of shareholders acting in unison, a single shareholder with a large percentage of shares?
"GW" is not owned by a single person or wholly owned by a single group of shareholders, as I understand the current situation. Thus "GW" cannot be in talks to sell itself.
I know others have posted proper reasoning since you asked, but I just wanted to weigh in after work and let you know that I only reported what I had been told. I don't know, personally, how public companies are sold, traded or bought. I'm glad others are understanding in the matter, but I definitely know my limitations in the matter.
I hope it is not Disney, they would keep the Hobbit license and kill the warhammer universe as too violent.
JWhex :You should read Barbarians at the gate there is explained how (a hostile) takeover works, it also depends on how many shares GW own them selves, the buying company just needs a maximum percentage of shares to instagate a change of the board or CEO.
Bolognesus wrote: ...Because you really fail to see how not having enough stock to take full advantage of impulse buys around release time is bad? hmmkay.
They don't have enough stock because people bought it all. What part of this don't people understand? "Our stuff is too popular" is generally speaking not a real problem.
Well if you have 50 people wanting to buy your widget, and only make 4, and then sell all 4, that is in fact a problem. It's hard to say how many people actually want the widget, but selling out very quickly isn't necessarily an ideal situation imo.
Bolognesus wrote: ...Because you really fail to see how not having enough stock to take full advantage of impulse buys around release time is bad? hmmkay.
They don't have enough stock because people bought it all. What part of this don't people understand? "Our stuff is too popular" is generally speaking not a real problem.
Well if you have 50 people wanting to buy your widget, and only make 4, and then sell all 4, that is in fact a problem. It's hard to say how many people actually want the widget, but selling out very quickly isn't necessarily an ideal situation imo.
Save your breath, he will never get it because he does not want to get it.
I do not think that there is any way that he could not be getting it otherwise.
Leave him to his windmills, they might be giants.
Back when I was a Young Grump publishers used to do the same thing - make two small print runs, then boast 'Already In It's Third Printing!' - and there were folks that wanted to believe that was telling the whole story.
*EDIT* In this case... I kind of like the idea that GW was trying to reduce inventory before the end of the fiscal year - they are sitting on a lot of Hobbits right now, and when the tax man comes knocking then it will hurt.
I do not believe that it was malice on their part, just nervousness about taxes and a pretty thorough underestimate of the needed numbers of their Tau models.
The Auld Grump, the folks that I know who collect Tau do not even play WH40K, they just like the models....
ON topic, if the Tau release was an intentional short production run to drive demand I'm a bit curious about that choice. We have no way to know, mind you. Apple used to be the king of that, but in more recent launches they have tried to have more stock on hand Day 1 to lock in more customers. If it was poor forecasting, I wonder if they're able to learn from it. (Hope, always hope, lol). If it was crazy mad demand, well good for them.
On the whole though, I think it's a disconnect between HQ and the real world that's been driving the stumbling strategy. I'm pretty sure they believe what they're saying, I just have trouble seeing how.
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then. It works in high-school economic classes, why not in real life?
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then.
Yep, which is why every other miniature wargaming company is just barely struggling to survive, and in fact, several like Spartan Games, Wyrd Games, and Privateer Press have recently announced that they're shutting down.
Oh. Wait.
Also, GW themselves have stated, numerous times that they're not affected by the economy. So either they're lying or they're incompetent.
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then. It works in high-school economic classes, why not in real life?
During the years GW enjoyed rapid year on year growth they passed through the early 80s recession, the early 90s recession and the early 2000s recession, selling an interesting variety of games (and doing all the things veterans like to complain aren't done now.)
It was post LotR, when there was a major economic boom, that their sales growth hit a wall, selling only three games.
If a buyout is planned then GW picked a poor time to risk their IP taking on the Chapterhouse case. I think that would have to be resolved before someone would arrange a take over, otherwise it's a bit of a risk. I doubt GW will lose much ground on their IP, but potentially they could and that's going to look an uncertain investment for someone planning to buy in. Maybe the CHS case is getting to be a bit of a burden.
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then. It works in high-school economic classes, why not in real life?
Exactly, its not like there was a reported 15% growth in the industry as a whole last year... oh wait!
There's been a big rise in the tabletop gaming industry over the last few years. By contrast, I remember reading a stat that back in in 2004, something like 40% of game stores in the US closed down.
Howard A Treesong wrote: If a buyout is planned then GW picked a poor time to risk their IP taking on the Chapterhouse case. I think that would have to be resolved before someone would arrange a take over, otherwise it's a bit of a risk. I doubt GW will lose much ground on their IP, but potentially they could and that's going to look an uncertain investment for someone planning to buy in. Maybe the CHS case is getting to be a bit of a burden.
Although IANAL I think GW are being rather paranoid about the Chapter House case, arising from their control freak personality.
What is the worst that could happen? They lose the TM for Space Marine™. Big deal, just trademark everything Warhammer 40K™ Space Marine™ and so on and nothing really will have changed.
The business is not going to fall apart because other people can make space marine models with shoulder pads.
Iamjack42 wrote: Why would GW have provided less than normal for a release? My understanding is that they have very low costs associated with producing an additional unit, all the costs are incurred upfront in design and mold production. Why would they attempt to cut costs by producing an abnormally small amount of Tau boxes? Could you help me understand?
Let me provide you an example that has actually happened on how companies manipulate supply chain to drive price. Up until Return to Ravnica, WotC shipped all the MtG product that a customer wanted at the initial order. If a store wanted 10 cases, they received all 10 cases when the set was ready to ship. A box of boosters could be purchased for about $90. With Return to Ravnica, WotC changed their shipping method so that the cards would be sent out in waves, not in one bulk shipment. This meant that instead of the market having the initial demand filled immediately, it was filled over the course of several months. Due to gamers being impatient, the fictional drop in supply, caused boost box prices to go up to $110 per booster box because retailers were more limited on what they could sell due to limited product. I also think WotC did something to add in a preference system for when people received product based on their size and other factors.
Anyway, GW has been short on at least 2 products recently, the flyer rules and Tau. Obviously they knew how many rulebooks they sold, so one would assume the flyer rules should be stocked in the same quantities. I also don't think the amount of Tau being in demand is any more than other Codeces in the past. Tau isn't OP from my understanding and as such, won't create an absurd demand like Grey Knights would have. I suspect GW is trying to create artificial demand or is having issues with paying for their supply chain.
Howard A Treesong wrote: If a buyout is planned then GW picked a poor time to risk their IP taking on the Chapterhouse case. I think that would have to be resolved before someone would arrange a take over, otherwise it's a bit of a risk. I doubt GW will lose much ground on their IP, but potentially they could and that's going to look an uncertain investment for someone planning to buy in. Maybe the CHS case is getting to be a bit of a burden.
Although IANAL I think GW are being rather paranoid about the Chapter House case, arising from their control freak personality.
What is the worst that could happen? They lose the TM for Space Marine™. Big deal, just trademark everything Warhammer 40K™ Space Marine™ and so on and nothing really will have changed.
The business is not going to fall apart because other people can make space marine models with shoulder pads.
In 2010, when GW began its big IP enforcement push in ernest, GW was describing it's "defendable intellectual property" as the company's "fortress wall" that served as a barrier to competition. GW told that to its investors.
Since then, competition has expanded, and GW's market share has arguably been shrinking. 3rd party accessory companies have gone gangbusters. The lawsuit itself has thus far shown GW's plan to be a remarkable failure. It has likely also cost the company hundreds of thousands of dollars. Were the company to lose the lawsuit...were the company to lose the lawsuit in a big way, such as by losing control over self-professed IP that the company has personally tied to its success in the market, well, it would not look good in the least.
I think you are right that losing IP that should not be protectable, like "Space Marine" and "Stromtrooper" is not in itself a serious blow because a reasonable company would not even attempt to enforce such alleged IP, but GW is facing a manufactured problem of its own creation. GW told investors that the company is valuable, and will continue to be valuable because of its "defendable intellectual property," and so a blow to that alleged IP is a blow to the company's image. GW is facing the real possibility of being hoisted by its own petard, which communicates both gross waste and incompetent management in any industry.
It also looks really bad when a multi million dollar international company cannot win a lawsuit against a guy spin casting in his garage.
Christ. Don't do that to me. Seriously, my heart skipped a beat.
Mine too... please don't do that to me D:
Well, I mean, can you blame them? GW stagnated over the past couple years, and everyone knows they make the absolute best miniatures and the greatest games, and if they stagnated due to the weak economy, then Wyrd, which launched their game in 2009 while things were still bad, and Privateer Press, which, while relatively popular compared to other games, hadn't quite taken off yet, must be on their knees right now. We've all read the reports about how the entire wargaming industry has shrunk over the past decade or so, and-
The wargaming industry grew 15%
Oh. Dammit, now I need to grasp at a different straw to desperately absolve GW of any responsibility in their own stagnation/shrinkage.
Nafarious wrote: I have also heard that the CEO's plan to get out of the company, and are getting really to sell it off.
Kirby intended to retire after 5 years when he led the buyout from Bryan Ansell, 20 years ago.
He remained because he found he could keep awarding himself more money (awarded himself both salaries as CEO and Chair, then when that was pointed out as dubious, hired Wells but took no pay cut... and now he's 'covering' for Wells stepping down after Kirby's return from the USA beheadings? Oh yeah, another pay increase) and increasing the value of his own shares. He is the spider in the web and most of what's wrong with the company can be traced back to him, that failed TSR writer, and the corporate suits with nothing but disdain of the hobby that he brought in to the highest positions.
*Downsizing stores, limiting hours and making the one man are the kind of steps all big retailers take to cut costs. If it ends up making the stores more profitable then that is a good thing for GW. *
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This. is a negative impact of an ETS (carbon Emission Trading Scheme) i am unsure if UK/US/EU is affected by such but it could certainly explain things here
I really think GW went from being a Hobby of toy men to a Miniatures Company to a well known global Buisiness but in too short of a space of time. ie they Expanded faster than the support could sustain. yet Ward will be blamed (somehow).
TBH i don't know any more than you do on this. speculation at best
Flashman wrote: Hmm... would new owners try to grow the company though or just carry on milking the cow?
The question is whether the cow will survive the rate of milking.
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
This is the greatest problem I have with their current business strategy.. the term 'Games Workshop' hasn't really been valid for at least a decade or so now, and being content to release a 0.1 upgrade of the rules every few years, shuffle a few things round in a codex, rinse and repeat isn't really enough for those of us who have been playing long term! At least, from my own perspective, after dismounting at least 20,000 marines from a rhino it would be nice if GW could produce a change of scenery for when you want to try something different. But they don't, and so other games and manufacturers continue to grow.
Dreadfleet was a step back in the right direction, and it was a glimmer of what the company was once capable of, even if the general conception of the game was that it was poorly executed. On those grounds, yes perhaps it didn't instantly sell out, but it would be good if it had sold enough to make the bean counters consider giving another new game a try.
...Not saying that you should buy it though mate ! Credit where it is due and all that..
What is the cost in Aus of that game, I'm guessing something mental. And will 25% off take it anywhere near the price of 2 fleets for Dystopian Wars or Uncharted Seas, both of which offer a far superior nautical wargaming experience?
Kingsley wrote: "Tau selling out is bad for GW, not good!" is probably the silliest piece of Internet wisdom I've seen in a while.
lol.....tell that to Apple......demand always outstrips supply, this in turn creates a product which is scarce and therefore people tend not to moan as much about the price lol
Dont think that people at GW are complete idiots......
The Tau kits will come back into supply. People who want them will buy them next week if they could not get them last week.
The damage is reputational. It would be highly unethical to cut off the independent shops you supply while keeping goods in stock in your own retail chain.
I realise that in the end, GW did not do that. Apparently the FLGSs got most or all of what they wanted. However whether the situation arose from a bad ethical decision that was revised, or a lack of forward planning in the supply chain, it shakes confidence either way.
Pacific wrote: ...Not saying that you should buy it though mate ! Credit where it is due and all that..
What is the cost in Aus of that game, I'm guessing something mental. And will 25% off take it anywhere near the price of 2 fleets for Dystopian Wars or Uncharted Seas, both of which offer a far superior nautical wargaming experience?
IIRC, at launch, it was $190au. My FLGS has it for about $150au, last I checked.
I've got no interest getting into another full fledged wargame. Dreadfleet was something I really liked the look of - it's got a campaign and a story and uses Warhammers ridiculous magic and monsters to great effect, and from what I've heard, is a really enjoyable beer and pretzels game. Just want I want. And is all contained in one box.
Kilkrazy wrote:
The damage is reputational. It would be highly unethical to cut off the independent shops you supply while keeping goods in stock in your own retail chain.
I realise that in the end, GW did not do that. Apparently the FLGSs got most or all of what they wanted. However whether the situation arose from a bad ethical decision that was revised, or a lack of forward planning in the supply chain, it shakes confidence either way.
I do wonder at GW's logic in all of this - the FLGS are in effect salesmen for their game outside of the official GW stores. With all of this, the direct only sales, and numerous other difficulties that shop owners have posted on here, how likely is it to make those shop owners try to hawk their systems? They are practically being driven to try and push sales of other systems instead.
Kilkrazy wrote:
The damage is reputational. It would be highly unethical to cut off the independent shops you supply while keeping goods in stock in your own retail chain.
I realise that in the end, GW did not do that. Apparently the FLGSs got most or all of what they wanted. However whether the situation arose from a bad ethical decision that was revised, or a lack of forward planning in the supply chain, it shakes confidence either way.
I do wonder at GW's logic in all of this - the FLGS are in effect salesmen for their game outside of the official GW stores. With all of this, the direct only sales, and numerous other difficulties that shop owners have posted on here, how likely is it to make those shop owners try to hawk their systems? They are practically being driven to try and push sales of other systems instead.
I wouldn't shop at any store that pushed a system at all.
It's bad that this happened, and removes confidence in GW being able to provide pre orders (which has happened quite a bit recently). But if I walked into a store and started browsing their 40k section, and the staff told me to buy some Warmachine instead because *insert reason*, I'd probably just leave. Customers make up their own minds generally. The best thing store owners should do is simply give a cautionary warning if someone places a pre order.
Right. GW bans online retailers, bans bits, raises prices past where they could concievably be raised, hobbit is a bust, production facility in Memphis closes, Tau supply debacle, downsizes stores to one man operations with limited hours, discourages gaming in-store, finecrap all within the last 1.5 years and just today the 3 largest investors are pulling out of GW. And it's "just" the internet.
Gets me all giddy inside
Agreed. Maybe the IP will go to an actual games company (GW now calls itself a model company) and someone will make a solid set of rules to go with all the nice miniatures.
I wouldn't shop at any store that pushed a system at all.
It's bad that this happened, and removes confidence in GW being able to provide pre orders (which has happened quite a bit recently). But if I walked into a store and started browsing their 40k section, and the staff told me to buy some Warmachine instead because *insert reason*, I'd probably just leave. Customers make up their own minds generally. The best thing store owners should do is simply give a cautionary warning if someone places a pre order.
Any good FLGS Owner is far more subtle than that.
For example, every store has certain shelves or areas that will sell the product on it faster than others for a variety of psychological reasons (eye level, where it happens to be placed in a circuit of the store, etc). As a result, a store owner choosing to push a product can be as simple as picking where to place it. Likewise, a product can be vanished to obscurity on the lower sales, more obscure shelving.
There are also other factors, such as how much of a product line the store chooses to carry, how much support (tournaments, etc) is maintained, what games are recommended to new players/customers, word of mouth to more loyal customers, and so on.
Your local FLGS owner has far more impact over what he chooses to sell and you choose to buy than you might realise. And if GW hacks enough of them off, you may find that each time Privateer Press, or another company will pick up that slack and get the more prominent placing. Infinity night will get slotted in instead of Lord of the Rings night. When giving demonstration painting lessons, a Malifaux miniature is picked out to show the new customer instead of a Space Marine.
Whilst it continues to earn money, a FLGS owner will rarely just instantly cease to carry and support a game. However should they choose to do so, they have a multitude of ways of slowly strangling the introduction of new blood to it (and thus guaranteeing its eventual decline and demise locally).
Nafarious wrote: I have also heard that the CEO's plan to get out of the company, and are getting really to sell it off.
Kirby intended to retire after 5 years when he led the buyout from Bryan Ansell, 20 years ago.
He remained because he found he could keep awarding himself more money (awarded himself both salaries as CEO and Chair, then when that was pointed out as dubious, hired Wells but took no pay cut... and now he's 'covering' for Wells stepping down after Kirby's return from the USA beheadings? Oh yeah, another pay increase) and increasing the value of his own shares. He is the spider in the web and most of what's wrong with the company can be traced back to him, that failed TSR writer, and the corporate suits with nothing but disdain of the hobby that he brought in to the highest positions.
Who was the writer from TSR that they brought on board?
Who was the writer from TSR that they brought on board?
Kirby, he used to write modules for TSR. They were not well received by the senior staff. (strangely one of his modules received a very good review from White Dwarf, back in the days when they did that sort of thing, before all those contributors were fired and the magazine became purely inhouse...).
He also told the design team, back in the 90s, that the minis would sell if they were sold in soap boxes instead of boxes with good artwork and implemented such (you remember the solid, brittle plastic boxes they temporarily replaced the original artwork 'regiments of renown' into back then? It was met with a sharp decline in sales and he was forced to make a U turn. Something that lead to his somewhat unfavorable view of the artistic dept and seek to get rid of much of the team, reducing down to just a few and getting rid of others or exiling them to the various offshoot products that cropped up around the mid to late 90s.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say a major toy manufacturer (like Hasbro), a major video game company (Blizzard-Activision), or a large media company (Disney) is going to get their hands on GW within the next year.
Seems what everything is building up towards as GW tries to bulk up its perceived value by protecting IPs, updating products, and trying to show that their product is going to sell well/add to an already existing stable of merchandise.
-Loki- wrote: I wouldn't shop at any store that pushed a system at all.
It's bad that this happened, and removes confidence in GW being able to provide pre orders (which has happened quite a bit recently). But if I walked into a store and started browsing their 40k section, and the staff told me to buy some Warmachine instead because *insert reason*, I'd probably just leave. Customers make up their own minds generally. The best thing store owners should do is simply give a cautionary warning if someone places a pre order.
I disagree that "customers make up their own minds generally". If the store chooses to fill the store with advertising from other companies rather than GW, place GW paints alongside cheaper paints from other companies, if they have tables, use the tables for games other than GW games, inform gamers of some of the shadier dealings they've had with GW, it can definitely have an impact on gamers.
For someone who knows what they want before they ever walk in to the shop, it's not going to matter either way. For people who are more interested in the hobby in general or don't know the hobby as well, the FLGS owner can definitely push sales one way or another without "pushing" directly on to the individual customers. If the FLGS is related to or linked with a club, they can have an even greater influence on things.
Video game publishers spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to have their games and advertising prominently displayed in stores. While hobby stores are most certainly different, they can definitely have an effect. Hell, in my younger days, my FLGS owner got me in to Epic 40k Tyranids (I already had a 40k Epic Ork army) because someone else had traded some Tyranids and he gave them to me for almost nothing... which then resulted in me coming back and buying more on a later occasion
Flashman wrote: Hmm... would new owners try to grow the company though or just carry on milking the cow?
The question is whether the cow will survive the rate of milking.
As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.
This is the greatest problem I have with their current business strategy.. the term 'Games Workshop' hasn't really been valid for at least a decade or so now, and being content to release a 0.1 upgrade of the rules every few years, shuffle a few things round in a codex, rinse and repeat isn't really enough for those of us who have been playing long term! At least, from my own perspective, after dismounting at least 20,000 marines from a rhino it would be nice if GW could produce a change of scenery for when you want to try something different. But they don't, and so other games and manufacturers continue to grow.
Dreadfleet was a step back in the right direction, and it was a glimmer of what the company was once capable of, even if the general conception of the game was that it was poorly executed. On those grounds, yes perhaps it didn't instantly sell out, but it would be good if it had sold enough to make the bean counters consider giving another new game a try.
Dreadfleet really was a terrible idea. I am very interested in fantasy naval battles in the warhammer world (own over 300 Man O War ships) but I passed on dreadfleet because of the price and rules. I mean if you cant sell something like dreadfleet to me you have gone horribly wrong with a product.
They knew a classic game with pent up demand and miniatures compatible with 40k would sell out, but they did Dreadfleet? That was just an all around fail.
Ma55ter_fett wrote: As long as I can get my hands on the new eldar before they switch over I'm happy.
You mean if they aren't already sold out before release, that is. Been over a week and I still can't get any of the new Tau, and if they don't show up this Friday I'll have to wait even longer.
No, it's terible news and GW should burn in hell for having supply issues.
Of course, when Privateer Press have supply issues, it's fantastic because the game is so popular they can't keep up with demand.
Also fantasyflight can't keep x-wing in stock to save there souls.
They should burn too. They obviously don't care about the gamers who want to play it and are deliberately either not releasing stock to stockists and distributors or not producing enough to create an artificial demand.
I wasn't aware that PP and FFG both had the same history of being actively hostile to their own customers/retailers/distributors that GW does.
Also, I can buy X-Wing at my local store, so clearly the FFG stock issues are just the internet over-exaggerating things or making storms in tea cups like it typically does.
Sidstyler wrote: I wasn't aware that PP and FFG both had the same history of being actively hostile to their own customers/retailers/distributors that GW does.
I wasn't aware it had been proven that the low stock for Tau had any malice behind it. I'd like to see actual evidence about it - would be nice to finally stop all the anecdotal evidence.
Sidstyler wrote: Also, I can buy X-Wing at my local store, so clearly the FFG stock issues are just the internet over-exaggerating things or making storms in tea cups like it typically does.
Day of release, I walked into myFLGS, a non GW store, and they had multiples of each on the shelves of everything new the Tau got, so clearly the GW Tau stock issues are just the internet exaggerating things or making storms in a tea cups like it typically does.
PS. Seriously, they had at least 3 of each new product including the codex, and that was after lunchtime when the store had been open and received the initial rush of people coming in to buy them, with people sitting around building the new kits and reading the codex in the store while I was playing a game.
Dreadfleet was a step back in the right direction, and it was a glimmer of what the company was once capable of, even if the general conception of the game was that it was poorly executed. On those grounds, yes perhaps it didn't instantly sell out, but it would be good if it had sold enough to make the bean counters consider giving another new game a try.
Dreadfleet really was a terrible idea. I am very interested in fantasy naval battles in the warhammer world (own over 300 Man O War ships) but I passed on dreadfleet because of the price and rules. I mean if you cant sell something like dreadfleet to me you have gone horribly wrong with a product.
They knew a classic game with pent up demand and miniatures compatible with 40k would sell out, but they did Dreadfleet? That was just an all around fail.
I meant that in the sense it was a step in the right direction - GW used to be a hotbed of imagination and creativity, and it was their coupling of that (with the ability to make good models for whatever game they conjured up) that I think was largely responsible for them being in the position they are in today.
As such Dreadfleet was probably the only thing they have done in more than a decade that wasn't just a re-hash of a previous version, with a 0.1 change to the rules, a section of re-written background, and perhaps a new monster/character/vehicle plastic kit thrown in. It's all grown very stale.
Kilkrazy wrote:
The damage is reputational. It would be highly unethical to cut off the independent shops you supply while keeping goods in stock in your own retail chain.
I realise that in the end, GW did not do that. Apparently the FLGSs got most or all of what they wanted. However whether the situation arose from a bad ethical decision that was revised, or a lack of forward planning in the supply chain, it shakes confidence either way.
I do wonder at GW's logic in all of this - the FLGS are in effect salesmen for their game outside of the official GW stores. With all of this, the direct only sales, and numerous other difficulties that shop owners have posted on here, how likely is it to make those shop owners try to hawk their systems? They are practically being driven to try and push sales of other systems instead.
I wouldn't shop at any store that pushed a system at all.
It's bad that this happened, and removes confidence in GW being able to provide pre orders (which has happened quite a bit recently). But if I walked into a store and started browsing their 40k section, and the staff told me to buy some Warmachine instead because *insert reason*, I'd probably just leave. Customers make up their own minds generally. The best thing store owners should do is simply give a cautionary warning if someone places a pre order.
Obviously I don't mean people who have come in to buy a thing specifically. But, in the sense that if you get a customer (possibly parents for instance) who are fishing around for ideas, and want something new, the FLGS staff is going to be far more likely to push them in the direction of something other than a GW game.
Yes, it's true that Space Hulk was basically an update, and Dreadfleet was a brand new design. Which makes it a great pity that it was a failure. I wonder why Dreadfleet was such a failure?
Kilkrazy wrote: Yes, it's true that Space Hulk was basically an update, and Dreadfleet was a brand new design. Which makes it a great pity that it was a failure. I wonder why Dreadfleet was such a failure?
Because it was a horrible game with horrible rules?
From what I heard it was just an awful game. In fact I think "So random as to be a farce" might actually be a direct quote from one of the reviews I saw.
It basically sounds like it was a game on rails, where all the wacky cards and random events essentially played the game for you. Player input was minimal, there was little to no thinking or tactical play involved, and you were mainly only needed to physically push the models around on the table and just watch the action happen...sounds kinda like 40k 6th edition, come to think of it . Add to that the ships were mostly goofy-looking and didn't have much value as collector's pieces or as proxies for other ship games, and the obligatory high price point, and it doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success.
They tried something new, but they didn't try very hard, or stray far enough from their gakky formula.
Sidstyler wrote: From what I heard it was just an awful game. In fact I think "So random as to be a farce" might actually be a direct quote from one of the reviews I saw.
It basically sounds like it was a game on rails, where all the wacky cards and random events essentially played the game for you. Player input was minimal, there was little to no thinking or tactical play involved, and you were mainly only needed to physically push the models around on the table and just watch the action happen...sounds kinda like 40k 6th edition, come to think of it . Add to that the ships were mostly goofy-looking and didn't have much value as collector's pieces or as proxies for other ship games, and the obligatory high price point, and it doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success.
They tried something new, but they didn't try very hard, or stray far enough from their gakky formula.
That sounds like Talisman to me, no player input at all.
Sidstyler wrote: Also, I can buy X-Wing at my local store, so clearly the FFG stock issues are just the internet over-exaggerating things or making storms in tea cups like it typically does.
Base game? Sure. Try getting your hands on most of the expansion boosters though (and make no mistake, you'll need a couple of those for an enjoyable experience!); those are... elusive, to say the least
Kilkrazy wrote: Yes, it's true that Space Hulk was basically an update, and Dreadfleet was a brand new design. Which makes it a great pity that it was a failure. I wonder why Dreadfleet was such a failure?
It was a lot of money on a blank release with no previous history and no forthcoming information, so I held off until some reviews came out. The reviews were poor, so I passed. Can't have been the only one.
Kilkrazy wrote: Yes, it's true that Space Hulk was basically an update, and Dreadfleet was a brand new design. Which makes it a great pity that it was a failure. I wonder why Dreadfleet was such a failure?
Because it was a horrible game with horrible rules?
That and the price. At half the RRP (£70?) it might have been worth it for a couple of evenings entertainment, but it seems from the reviews I read that it was too random to be enjoyable, and had no real replay value, so a lot of people bought it, played it once or twice and then tried to get rid, whilst the high price put off impulse buys.
I'd seen it going for about £30 and couldn't bring myself to buy it.
I was told GW moved some production to china for cheaper costs and there was some kind of shipment blunder and most of the places that take longer than 5 days shipping out did not get there tau product. Has anyone else heard this? What concerns me most is if GW did moving production to china then it's going to cost less to make while they hike prices in June.
Kal-El wrote: I was told GW moved some production to china for cheaper costs....
I would take it with a grain of salt personally, at least until it is independently corroborated. FW made a similar move a while back; moved a bunch of production to China and just as soon as they did, a load of counterfeit FW stuff started appearing. Not sure GW would be foolish enough to risk that happening again, even if the cost savings were good.
Hmmm, what I think is happening:
GW is suffering from flat and/or diminishing sales.
GW has cut production.
GWmay be cutting back on QA (just may - it could also be that Finecast is just that bad....)
GWmay be suffering a cash/liquidity crunch - selling off the machines in Florida to help free up some liquid funds.
This is balanced, in part by having a low overhead with the exception of the GW storefronts.
GW wants to draw attention away from a possible cash flow problem, so is going for actions that net the greatest returns on profits, not the greatest volume of sales.
If so then the methods that they are choosing are stopgap measures only.
As a result GWmay make themselves inconsequential to the hobby as a whole - removing themselves from the greater picture to focus only on their core base.
Observations:
Fantasy, as a whole, is not as healthy for GW as WH40K - but I also do not see any direct competition faring well in that market either. Much as I love Kings of War it just does not have that same base. Privateer's WARMACHINE is actually more in competition with 40K than fantasy, as far as scale and game flavor goes.
Possible Consequences:
I do not see GW pulling out of this situation anytime soon - they are too entrenched, and are too stubbornly clinging to an outdated strategy.
I do not see GW vanishing anytime soon, though we may see a slow decline and collapse, followed by a faster collapse if/when investors begin dropping under performing stock.
I do not see GW being picked up by Hasbro - more likely they would try a competing model through WotC rather than pick up the GW lines.
The properties... more likely to be picked up by a computer game company, I think, than a tabletop game company. This may or may not be good for the game settings as a whole, but would likely be disastrous for the tabletop games.
The Auld Grump
*EDIT* In summation, there is doom and gloom for this week's forecast, followed by more gloom and doom for the weekend! And now, Andy with today's Sports Reports!
