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silent25 wrote:
 Kilkrazy wrote:

It is a crucial part of business to understand what your customers want, how many, how to price them, and how to deliver them on time. If you know that you can place production orders at optimum bulk discount pricing.

IMO this is an area in which the lack of advance PR hurts GW. Do you remember when the original PS3 "banana" controller design was revealed to worldwide derision and contempt. Sony acted on that feedback and changed the design.

If GW had put out sketches and handbuilt models of the Riptide, and the other stuff, six months ago they could have got feedback showing them the Riptide was going to be popular and the flier wasnt. I don't know how popular the flier is but about half of Dakka members think it's poor, whereas everyone loves the Riptide.


I wouldn't use Sony as an example. The Playstation division is hemorrhaging money. They loss $2.8 billion US last year.

As for "fan feedback" releasing that early concept art only allows for knock-off companies to take the pics and make their own ripoffs. And internet feedback doesn't guarantee realistic input. You only get the loudest voices and those people might not even buy the product. I agree they should release the pics earlier than they currently do, but design by internet committee is never a good idea.

One question I have in the whole Tau debacle, how many Riptide units did they actually make?



If they would have lost more money by sticking with the banana controller, they did well to listen to feedback.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18030939

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AllSeeingSkink wrote:
 Kingsley wrote:
Only on Dakka, and only for GW, is "we sold too many models" a "debacle."
"we sold too many models" isn't a debacle, "we didn't make enough models" kind of is.


"We didn't make enough models" might be bad in some cases. "We didn't make enough models to meet the unexpectedly huge demand for our new product" doesn't seem like one of those cases.
   
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 Kingsley wrote:


"We didn't make enough models" might be bad in some cases. "We didn't make enough models to meet the unexpectedly huge demand for our new product" doesn't seem like one of those cases.


It should be pointed out there isn't any sales data thus far to prove or disprove whether the shortage was due to high demand or not. The only oblique reference I have seen to sales data has been from Rich, the owner of Wayland, who said that the Tau sales thus far were similar in volume to Dark Eldar and Grey Knight releases.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/08 07:38:48


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AllSeeingSkink wrote:
 Kingsley wrote:
Only on Dakka, and only for GW, is "we sold too many models" a "debacle."
"we sold too many models" isn't a debacle, "we didn't make enough models" kind of is.


And that concerns me. To me the company is going into a pattern of minimum sales run. To myself this is not a good thing to happen in this hobby.

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 Kingsley wrote:
"We didn't make enough models" might be bad in some cases. "We didn't make enough models to meet the unexpectedly huge demand for our new product" doesn't seem like one of those cases.

Do you have any sales figures to show that there was an 'unexpectedly high demand'?


And if there was, is there any reason to assume that the shortfall couldn't have been easily avoided through basic market research prior to release?

 
   
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More likely they shorted the production on purpose in order to avoid carrying over stock from this FY to the next. That is a drag on the balance sheet, and given how close we are getting to year end...Nottingham may well be looking at the numbers and seeing costs they need to cover.
   
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 Kanluwen wrote:
Maybe they're just not sending anything to Australia?



But on a more serious note:

Did the Memphis Plant really do that much? By all accounts, they only had the molds for the "most popular" models. I can't think of anything really that had "Made in USA" recently from GW, all of it has been China/UK.


I stopped in at the Memphis battlebunker/plant last year, and the guys there told me that the nice thing about having the warehouse in the back was that if something was missing on the shelf, they could just go in the back and churn one out for you. Some assumption is involved on my part, but his wording suggested they could make any plastic kit. So from my experience, I'd say they had more than just the basic ones. Again, a bit of assumption on my part.

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 timetowaste85 wrote:

I stopped in at the Memphis battlebunker/plant last year, and the guys there told me that the nice thing about having the warehouse in the back was that if something was missing on the shelf, they could just go in the back and churn one out for you. Some assumption is involved on my part, but his wording suggested they could make any plastic kit. So from my experience, I'd say they had more than just the basic ones. Again, a bit of assumption on my part.


The Memphis ware house would also have stock sent to them from the UK for anything they don't produce. Usually they'd order anywhere form 6 months to a year supply of a product.

There is also no real way for the bunker staffer to know just exactly what is in stock (or out of stock) in the warehouse until he would put an order in. He wouldn't be able to just "pop in" to the warehouse to grab stock since his key card likely doesn't have that permission. Even is a customer is waiting they still have to place the order in the system, have the warehouse staff/Direct Sales staff pull the order and bring it to the bunker. I think the manager might be able to pull product, but that would only be after the regular warehouse staff have gone home for the day.

At least that's how it was set up when I was there, the procedure could have been changed.

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 Kilkrazy wrote:

If they would have lost more money by sticking with the banana controller, they did well to listen to feedback.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18030939


That is open to debate. And the link you posted didn't show anything to support that. If you are questioning my number, it is for the Consumer and Products division of Sony which sales of the PS3 factor into.
http://www.vg247.com/2012/05/10/sony-hit-hard-in-fy2012-financials-ps3-sales-down/

It's hard to say "they listened so the did a good job" when the company is losing tons of money.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Sean_OBrien wrote:
More likely they shorted the production on purpose in order to avoid carrying over stock from this FY to the next. That is a drag on the balance sheet, and given how close we are getting to year end...Nottingham may well be looking at the numbers and seeing costs they need to cover.


So we're calling shenanigans on the whole reduced production and simple playing the books instead?

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/04/08 04:04:59


 
   
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silent25 wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
More likely they shorted the production on purpose in order to avoid carrying over stock from this FY to the next. That is a drag on the balance sheet, and given how close we are getting to year end...Nottingham may well be looking at the numbers and seeing costs they need to cover.


So we're calling shenanigans on the whole reduced production and simple playing the books instead?


Most of what GW does is for reasons other than providing great service. Closing the US factory was no doubt an issue - but I doubt they ran into any actual problems with being able to produce quantities in time. However, if you read the past annual reports, inventory reduction has been emphasized for several years running. Based on information I have heard they have a large pile of inventory that did not move very well as well as some expenses which are coming due and no licensing fees coming from THQ in the last half. All of those added together have likely caused GW HQ to be very hesitant about printing anything more than they think they can sell.

Regarding Sony...those were last years numbers...this years are fast approaching and they look to be on track for $200-250 million in profit on the year. Not to bad to go from $5.7 BILLION loss last FY to a profit of any kind this year...Hirai has been doing a solid job.
   
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Making a set initial production run while having the capacity to meet an unexpected demand in a short time would seem like the ideal responsive position to be in for any manufacturer.

Minimising your risks and responding the demand smacks of good management from GW as unfashionable as it is to say these days.

As does programming releases to coincide with the financial year.

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Especially when shortages in high demand items push customers to GW direct sources (either GW Online or GW Retail stores...).

They are burning bridges with their shorted releases - and eventually it will be the last straw for each person (whether they are a consumer who wasn't able to pick up their preorder from their LGS or a LGS who only got half of their order...).
   
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 notprop wrote:
Minimising your risks and responding the demand smacks of good management from GW as unfashionable as it is to say these days.

This is the company that thinks that if we know about a release more than a week in advance, we'll lose interest and not buy it.

Making customers wait for 2-3 weeks past the release date to ensure that you don't over-produce really doesn't fit with that principle...



 
   
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silent25 wrote:
As for "fan feedback" releasing that early concept art only allows for knock-off companies to take the pics and make their own ripoffs.


That makes no sense. GW could put out concept art after already starting work on the model, giving them a head start on anyone trying to rip it off. They then will inevitably have a much larger production capacity than any knock off makers so they should get the model done and in store well before anyone else could. And, most importantly, if they were to put out a good model at a fair price they shouldn't need to worry about knock off models.

 Fafnir wrote:
Oh, I certainly vote with my dollar, but the problem is that that is not enough. The problem with the 'vote with your dollar' response is that it doesn't take into account why we're not buying the product. I want to enjoy 40k enough to buy back in. It was my introduction to traditional games, and there was a time when I enjoyed it very much. I want to buy 40k, but Gamesworkshop is doing their very best to push me away, and simply not buying their product won't tell them that.
 
   
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 jonolikespie wrote:
And, most importantly, if they were to put out a good model at a fair price they shouldn't need to worry about knock off models.

This is it in a nutshell. It's when we have no idea that GW are even considering releasing a given model that the 'knock-offs' are likely to appear, since they can take the gamble that the GW kit will be some way off (and this can pay off in a big way, as we saw with all of the not-Thunderwolves that filled in the gap that GW left open for so long.

If GW told us what they were working on, and when to expect it, there would be less market for 3rd party knock-offs as people would just wait for the GW model. I lost count of the number of people I spoke to who would have happily waited for the GW Thunderwolves if they had known that they were coming eventually. But thinking that Wolfy McWolfclaws on his Warhamster was the only thunderwolf we were going to get due to GW not being willing to tell anyone that plastic thunderwolves were in development, they went with the 3rd party options instead.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/08 05:42:54


 
   
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I presume, insaniak, that when you say "...and when to expect it", you're speaking in generalities not in specific release dates.

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 azreal13 wrote:
.. some of that slack will have been taken up by the Hobbit, albeit not as much as they'd like I'm sure.


They still have not sold out of the limited edition boxed sets for The Hobbit. I would say the sales for that line are way below what they planned/expected.
http://www.games-workshop.com/gws/catalog/productDetail.jsp?catId=cat970009a&prodId=prod1820008a

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 nolzur wrote:
 azreal13 wrote:
.. some of that slack will have been taken up by the Hobbit, albeit not as much as they'd like I'm sure.


They still have not sold out of the limited edition boxed sets for The Hobbit. I would say the sales for that line are way below what they planned/expected.
http://www.games-workshop.com/gws/catalog/productDetail.jsp?catId=cat970009a&prodId=prod1820008a


The Australian limited editions of DV were recalled a month or two ago since they didn't sell out in the allotted time period (and having something 'limited' on the shelves 6 months later looks bad), and there are still 7 copies of Crusade of Fire (that's what it was called right) between my FLGS and my local GW. I think GW have simply overplayed the 'limited' card.

 Fafnir wrote:
Oh, I certainly vote with my dollar, but the problem is that that is not enough. The problem with the 'vote with your dollar' response is that it doesn't take into account why we're not buying the product. I want to enjoy 40k enough to buy back in. It was my introduction to traditional games, and there was a time when I enjoyed it very much. I want to buy 40k, but Gamesworkshop is doing their very best to push me away, and simply not buying their product won't tell them that.
 
   
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What Sean O'Brien said.

Since the company is retrenching to cut costs, stocking out doesn't surprise me. Pretty common.

Cutting production isn't just about cutting cost. It is an acknowledgement that the production facilities are no longer needed. That is, they are accepting that GW's long term production capacity is greater than they can sell.
Profit = revenue-cost.
Revenue = Price x Units sold

Prices are going up, and revenue is decreasing. Says a lot about units sold compared to the past.

To be fair, all company's in the entertainment niche are struggling. The video game companies aren't doing better.

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 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I presume, insaniak, that when you say "...and when to expect it", you're speaking in generalities not in specific release dates.

Yeah. Just the old fashioned 'These are in development, should be out in 6-9 months' sort of deal is more than sufficient to keep people in the loop.

 
   
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Cool. I'm just pre-empting the brigade of people who normally chime in with "But when they give release dates and miss them people just complain; better to say nothing". Release windows are fine ("Q3 will be all about the Eldar, and we're going to be releasing some great new kits including X, Y and Z"). It really needn't be more specific than that.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/08 06:35:30


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 insaniak wrote:
 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I presume, insaniak, that when you say "...and when to expect it", you're speaking in generalities not in specific release dates.

Yeah. Just the old fashioned 'These are in development, should be out in 6-9 months' sort of deal is more than sufficient to keep people in the loop.


Alternatively they could try what the more successful kickstarters are doing and dangling tons of concept art and WIP pics in front of us to generate interest. Hell they could put that stuff in white dwarf and watch sales skyrocket.

 Fafnir wrote:
Oh, I certainly vote with my dollar, but the problem is that that is not enough. The problem with the 'vote with your dollar' response is that it doesn't take into account why we're not buying the product. I want to enjoy 40k enough to buy back in. It was my introduction to traditional games, and there was a time when I enjoyed it very much. I want to buy 40k, but Gamesworkshop is doing their very best to push me away, and simply not buying their product won't tell them that.
 
   
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New WD luuuuuuuuuuuuvvvvvvvvvvs its pictures. They're an excellent substitute for content, and a good thing to fill space between the 50 pages of new releases and the ever-present listing of every GW store and stockist in the known universe. No reason why they couldn't put in those sorts of pictures, fulfilling their need to avoid writing copy of any real substance whilst still including 'content' in their monthly catalogue (even if by accident).

I mean, "Next Month: Jes Goodwin shows off the concept art and some of the new model's for the upcoming Eldar Codex" 2-3 months before the Eldar Codex his pre-order would be a great way to boost sales. No more months and months of rumours and then bad photos from that guy in the warehouse who always seems to take photos when there's an earthquake going on. Just an actual real preview to build buzz for an upcoming product.

A bit like how Forge World do it.

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 scuddman wrote:
To be fair, all company's in the entertainment niche are struggling. The video game companies aren't doing better.

Not really. Tabletop gaming, as an industry, is growing rather quickly. 15% last year, in fact.
   
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Fair enough, tabletop gaming is increasing.

But what about GW's market share in tabletop gaming?
You could say...the boom marks the end of the GW monopoly. They've done the same thing Nintendo did in the early 90's and lost their advantage.

If you are the biggest tabletop gaming company, and tabletop gaming increased by 15% and that 15% wasn't you...that implies that some other direct competitor stole your business.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/08 06:57:11


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 scuddman wrote:
Fair enough, tabletop gaming is increasing.

But what about GW's market share in tabletop gaming?
You could say...the boom marks the end of the GW monopoly. They've done the same thing Nintendo did in the early 90's and lost their advantage.


Warhammer 40k is still a solid first place. However, The Hobbit isn't even in the top five. Interestingly, Warmachine is no longer #2, having been bumped out of the spot by X-Wing.
   
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Hmm, I don't know. That's like saying Microsoft Windows is still #1 in sales, but their sales volume is shrinking. That doesn't mean they aren't in trouble.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/04/08 07:01:06


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 scuddman wrote:
Fair enough, tabletop gaming is increasing.

But what about GW's market share in tabletop gaming?
You could say...the boom marks the end of the GW monopoly. They've done the same thing Nintendo did in the early 90's and lost their advantage.

If you are the biggest tabletop gaming company, and tabletop gaming increased by 15% and that 15% wasn't you...that implies that some other direct competitor stole your business.


Oh, I'm definitely not disagreeing with that: GW sales data from their stockholder reports tells us that their growth is essentially flat. I'm just disputing the (potential) argument that this is a symptom of a problem effecting the entire industry.
   
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 scuddman wrote:
Hmm, I don't know. That's like saying Microsoft Windows is still #1 in sales, but their sales volume is shrinking. That doesn't mean they aren't in trouble.


Perhaps. The next round of GW financial reports will be interesting.
   
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Well...a very wise GW manager once told me..."A pretty turd Is still a turd...a turd is a turd"

But of course, companies don't grow forever. That's a reality. Retrenching happens eventually. It happened to Microsoft. It happened to Nintendo. It'll happen to Apple, if it hasn't already. And it's happening to GW. If they survive it, they'll be a better company for it. If not, then the gaming world will move on to the next best thing.

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Customers ask me what army I play in 40k. Wrong Question. The only army I've never played is orks.

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