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 filbert wrote:
From another thread:

 filbert wrote:

 Kingsley wrote:


"We didn't make enough models" might be bad in some cases. "We didn't make enough models to meet the unexpectedly huge demand for our new product" doesn't seem like one of those cases.

It should be pointed out there isn't any sales data thus far to prove or disprove whether the shortage was due to high demand or not. The only oblique reference I have seen to sales data has been from Rich, the owner of Wayland, who said that the Tau sales thus far were similar in volume to Dark Eldar and Grey Knight releases.

Once again, we have no idea of the production figures, the sales figures or demand. Tau might have been super-popular or GW might not have made enough, or the rumoured supply chain issues might have caused a bottleneck.

Yes - the Tau sales was a thing...nothing more, than just that a thing.

Though, in the grand scheme of things - selling out is not generally a good thing. If you sell out, the next customer who comes into your store who wants that item can not buy it. You have lost that sale on that day. He might come back in two weeks time when you get more in - but then again, he might not. If you rent or payroll comes due and you are short by $20 between then and now - it has even more immediate impact as your empty shelves are only costing you money and not making any money.

Now, you have two different options in terms of interpreting the sell out. One is high demand, the other is low production (or a combination of the two). If demand was higher than they expected that would seem to point towards a bad thing. The bad thing isn't the high demand - rather that GW was caught unaware that there would be high demand. That would go back to the short lead time between preorders and releases. If a preorder was placed online a month before a release, GW and their various retail partners could arrange stock and orders to meet the high demand. Production can be shifted, and stock reallocated in order to compensate.

If the problem was low production and stable demand - then again, you have another bad thing. Again, management not knowing how low they could run the production lines to avoid having a warehouse full of stock at the end of the year or a misunderstanding of the actual production needs that caused them to decide to shut down Memphis operations (and move additional workload back onto their plant in the UK).

So...yes, we don't know what kind of a thing selling out of Tau was - but generally speaking at best it was a thing. At worse it was a bad thing. I don't think much of a case can be made for it being an actual good thing (without discounting the issues that I stated above).

Slipstream wrote:
Ok,
Its getting hard to ignore all the latest posts about what is happening with the empire that is Gw. We've had insane restrictions on what the independents can do, stores being closed worldwide, Gamesdays being cancelled, totally inept sales presentations, 'major' shareholders selling their shares. Also add in all the other nonsense that they've done over the past few years.
So what does it add up to?
It is sounding more and more like the high ups are getting to sell the company, which in one sense may be a good thing. The problem is that when a company is bought out the first thing the new owners do is cost cutting, which usually means redundancies, and closures, and probably higher prices to boot.
Hell, we all may be barking up the wrong kneck of the woods, but you must agree that GW is currently staggering around like a punch drunk boxer at this moment in time, surely?

The only way they can go at this point is up or out.

Get rid of some of the corperation scum and money grubbers, hire some talent, and add two parts give a gak, and it will be like nothing happened, and the last five years were a dream.

Thier biggest issue is that they have lost thier way.

Whatever happens on the business side, I hope the studio is able to continue it's work wether it's with old or new owners and management. I must admit 6th edition and the recent codices feel good to me. YMMV about some design decisions with the models, but overall, the product itself is nice atm, just the salesmen are a catastrophy.

Selling out of a product is certainly not the BEST thing but it is a good thing compared to average sales.

Either tau are the biggest selling 40k release ever(unlikely) or GW did not think they would sell many and limited the amount of stock they had

JWhex wrote:
Selling out of a product is certainly not the BEST thing but it is a good thing compared to average sales.

There is no way to know that.

If GW was short on production (either due to intentionally shorting it, or due to production/shipping bottlenecks) then it may have only been "average" sales of a new release. Not being able to provide for that is not a good thing at all. For all we know, it might have even been less than average sales and GW is using internal numbers to project lower production needs...so it could be just shooting too low (and in this case, hitting one's own foot in the process).

JWhex wrote:

 timetowaste85 wrote:


I've been told GW is in talks to sell off the company.

What exactly does this mean in the context of GW being a publicly traded company. Do you mean a group of shareholders acting in unison, a single shareholder with a large percentage of shares?

"GW" is not owned by a single person or wholly owned by a single group of shareholders, as I understand the current situation. Thus "GW" cannot be in talks to sell itself.

I know others have posted proper reasoning since you asked, but I just wanted to weigh in after work and let you know that I only reported what I had been told. I don't know, personally, how public companies are sold, traded or bought. I'm glad others are understanding in the matter, but I definitely know my limitations in the matter.

I hope it is not Disney, they would keep the Hobbit license and kill the warhammer universe as too violent.

JWhex :You should read Barbarians at the gate there is explained how (a hostile) takeover works, it also depends on how many shares GW own them selves, the buying company just needs a maximum percentage of shares to instagate a change of the board or CEO.

 Kingsley wrote:

 Bolognesus wrote:
...Because you really fail to see how not having enough stock to take full advantage of impulse buys around release time is bad? hmmkay.

They don't have enough stock because people bought it all. What part of this don't people understand? "Our stuff is too popular" is generally speaking not a real problem.

Well if you have 50 people wanting to buy your widget, and only make 4, and then sell all 4, that is in fact a problem. It's hard to say how many people actually want the widget, but selling out very quickly isn't necessarily an ideal situation imo.

 Ouze wrote:

 Kingsley wrote:

 Bolognesus wrote:
...Because you really fail to see how not having enough stock to take full advantage of impulse buys around release time is bad? hmmkay.

They don't have enough stock because people bought it all. What part of this don't people understand? "Our stuff is too popular" is generally speaking not a real problem.

Well if you have 50 people wanting to buy your widget, and only make 4, and then sell all 4, that is in fact a problem. It's hard to say how many people actually want the widget, but selling out very quickly isn't necessarily an ideal situation imo.

Save your breath, he will never get it because he does not want to get it.

I do not think that there is any way that he could not be getting it otherwise.
Leave him to his windmills, they might be giants.

Back when I was a Young Grump publishers used to do the same thing - make two small print runs, then boast 'Already In It's Third Printing!' - and there were folks that wanted to believe that was telling the whole story.

*EDIT* In this case... I kind of like the idea that GW was trying to reduce inventory before the end of the fiscal year - they are sitting on a lot of Hobbits right now, and when the tax man comes knocking then it will hurt.

I do not believe that it was malice on their part, just nervousness about taxes and a pretty thorough underestimate of the needed numbers of their Tau models.

The Auld Grump, the folks that I know who collect Tau do not even play WH40K, they just like the models....

 TheAuldGrump wrote:


Leave him to his windmills, they might be giants.

The Auld Grump

In before Particle Man.

ON topic, if the Tau release was an intentional short production run to drive demand I'm a bit curious about that choice. We have no way to know, mind you. Apple used to be the king of that, but in more recent launches they have tried to have more stock on hand Day 1 to lock in more customers. If it was poor forecasting, I wonder if they're able to learn from it. (Hope, always hope, lol). If it was crazy mad demand, well good for them.

On the whole though, I think it's a disconnect between HQ and the real world that's been driving the stumbling strategy. I'm pretty sure they believe what they're saying, I just have trouble seeing how.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.

Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then. It works in high-school economic classes, why not in real life?

 DarknessEternal wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.

Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then.

Yep, which is why every other miniature wargaming company is just barely struggling to survive, and in fact, several like Spartan Games, Wyrd Games, and Privateer Press have recently announced that they're shutting down.



Oh. Wait.

Also, GW themselves have stated, numerous times that they're not affected by the economy. So either they're lying or they're incompetent.

 DarknessEternal wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.

Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then. It works in high-school economic classes, why not in real life?

During the years GW enjoyed rapid year on year growth they passed through the early 80s recession, the early 90s recession and the early 2000s recession, selling an interesting variety of games (and doing all the things veterans like to complain aren't done now.)

It was post LotR, when there was a major economic boom, that their sales growth hit a wall, selling only three games.

If a buyout is planned then GW picked a poor time to risk their IP taking on the Chapterhouse case. I think that would have to be resolved before someone would arrange a take over, otherwise it's a bit of a risk. I doubt GW will lose much ground on their IP, but potentially they could and that's going to look an uncertain investment for someone planning to buy in. Maybe the CHS case is getting to be a bit of a burden.

Nothing. GW gets less sales, raises prices to keep the profit stable.

 DarknessEternal wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:

As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.

Well let's all just hop in our time machines and pretend today's economy is the same as then. It works in high-school economic classes, why not in real life?

Exactly, its not like there was a reported 15% growth in the industry as a whole last year... oh wait!

Eh...what country exactly got a growth of 15%? O_o

 Sigvatr wrote:
Eh...what country exactly got a growth of 15%? O_o

The wargaming industry grew 15%

Ah, the branch. I thought he meant the entire industry

Thanks for the clarification.

I believe that's the growth rate from the ICV2 figures for the US hobby games industry:

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/25373.html

There's been a big rise in the tabletop gaming industry over the last few years. By contrast, I remember reading a stat that back in in 2004, something like 40% of game stores in the US closed down.

 Howard A Treesong wrote:
If a buyout is planned then GW picked a poor time to risk their IP taking on the Chapterhouse case. I think that would have to be resolved before someone would arrange a take over, otherwise it's a bit of a risk. I doubt GW will lose much ground on their IP, but potentially they could and that's going to look an uncertain investment for someone planning to buy in. Maybe the CHS case is getting to be a bit of a burden.

Although IANAL I think GW are being rather paranoid about the Chapter House case, arising from their control freak personality.

What is the worst that could happen? They lose the TM for Space Marine™. Big deal, just trademark everything Warhammer 40K™ Space Marine™ and so on and nothing really will have changed.

The business is not going to fall apart because other people can make space marine models with shoulder pads.

Iamjack42 wrote:
Why would GW have provided less than normal for a release? My understanding is that they have very low costs associated with producing an additional unit, all the costs are incurred upfront in design and mold production. Why would they attempt to cut costs by producing an abnormally small amount of Tau boxes? Could you help me understand?

Let me provide you an example that has actually happened on how companies manipulate supply chain to drive price. Up until Return to Ravnica, WotC shipped all the MtG product that a customer wanted at the initial order. If a store wanted 10 cases, they received all 10 cases when the set was ready to ship. A box of boosters could be purchased for about $90. With Return to Ravnica, WotC changed their shipping method so that the cards would be sent out in waves, not in one bulk shipment. This meant that instead of the market having the initial demand filled immediately, it was filled over the course of several months. Due to gamers being impatient, the fictional drop in supply, caused boost box prices to go up to $110 per booster box because retailers were more limited on what they could sell due to limited product. I also think WotC did something to add in a preference system for when people received product based on their size and other factors.

Anyway, GW has been short on at least 2 products recently, the flyer rules and Tau. Obviously they knew how many rulebooks they sold, so one would assume the flyer rules should be stocked in the same quantities. I also don't think the amount of Tau being in demand is any more than other Codeces in the past. Tau isn't OP from my understanding and as such, won't create an absurd demand like Grey Knights would have. I suspect GW is trying to create artificial demand or is having issues with paying for their supply chain.

 RatBot wrote:
Wyrd Games

Christ. Don't do that to me. Seriously, my heart skipped a beat.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 Howard A Treesong wrote:
If a buyout is planned then GW picked a poor time to risk their IP taking on the Chapterhouse case. I think that would have to be resolved before someone would arrange a take over, otherwise it's a bit of a risk. I doubt GW will lose much ground on their IP, but potentially they could and that's going to look an uncertain investment for someone planning to buy in. Maybe the CHS case is getting to be a bit of a burden.

Although IANAL I think GW are being rather paranoid about the Chapter House case, arising from their control freak personality.

What is the worst that could happen? They lose the TM for Space Marine™. Big deal, just trademark everything Warhammer 40K™ Space Marine™ and so on and nothing really will have changed.

The business is not going to fall apart because other people can make space marine models with shoulder pads.

In 2010, when GW began its big IP enforcement push in ernest, GW was describing it's "defendable intellectual property" as the company's "fortress wall" that served as a barrier to competition. GW told that to its investors.

Since then, competition has expanded, and GW's market share has arguably been shrinking. 3rd party accessory companies have gone gangbusters. The lawsuit itself has thus far shown GW's plan to be a remarkable failure. It has likely also cost the company hundreds of thousands of dollars. Were the company to lose the lawsuit...were the company to lose the lawsuit in a big way, such as by losing control over self-professed IP that the company has personally tied to its success in the market, well, it would not look good in the least.

I think you are right that losing IP that should not be protectable, like "Space Marine" and "Stromtrooper" is not in itself a serious blow because a reasonable company would not even attempt to enforce such alleged IP, but GW is facing a manufactured problem of its own creation. GW told investors that the company is valuable, and will continue to be valuable because of its "defendable intellectual property," and so a blow to that alleged IP is a blow to the company's image. GW is facing the real possibility of being hoisted by its own petard, which communicates both gross waste and incompetent management in any industry.

It also looks really bad when a multi million dollar international company cannot win a lawsuit against a guy spin casting in his garage.

 daedalus wrote:

 RatBot wrote:
Wyrd Games

Christ. Don't do that to me. Seriously, my heart skipped a beat.

Mine too... please don't do that to me D:

 Alfndrate wrote:

 daedalus wrote:

 RatBot wrote:
Wyrd Games

Christ. Don't do that to me. Seriously, my heart skipped a beat.

Mine too... please don't do that to me D:

Well, I mean, can you blame them? GW stagnated over the past couple years, and everyone knows they make the absolute best miniatures and the greatest games, and if they stagnated due to the weak economy, then Wyrd, which launched their game in 2009 while things were still bad, and Privateer Press, which, while relatively popular compared to other games, hadn't quite taken off yet, must be on their knees right now. We've all read the reports about how the entire wargaming industry has shrunk over the past decade or so, and-

The wargaming industry grew 15%

Oh. Dammit, now I need to grasp at a different straw to desperately absolve GW of any responsibility in their own stagnation/shrinkage.

 Nafarious wrote:
I have also heard that the CEO's plan to get out of the company, and are getting really to sell it off.

Kirby intended to retire after 5 years when he led the buyout from Bryan Ansell, 20 years ago.

He remained because he found he could keep awarding himself more money (awarded himself both salaries as CEO and Chair, then when that was pointed out as dubious, hired Wells but took no pay cut... and now he's 'covering' for Wells stepping down after Kirby's return from the USA beheadings? Oh yeah, another pay increase) and increasing the value of his own shares. He is the spider in the web and most of what's wrong with the company can be traced back to him, that failed TSR writer, and the corporate suits with nothing but disdain of the hobby that he brought in to the highest positions.

*Downsizing stores, limiting hours and making the one man are the kind of steps all big retailers take to cut costs. If it ends up making the stores more profitable then that is a good thing for GW. *
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This. is a negative impact of an ETS (carbon Emission Trading Scheme) i am unsure if UK/US/EU is affected by such but it could certainly explain things here

I really think GW went from being a Hobby of toy men to a Miniatures Company to a well known global Buisiness but in too short of a space of time. ie they Expanded faster than the support could sustain. yet Ward will be blamed (somehow).

TBH i don't know any more than you do on this. speculation at best

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 Flashman wrote:
Hmm... would new owners try to grow the company though or just carry on milking the cow?

The question is whether the cow will survive the rate of milking.

As I've said many times before, I think GW could do a lot better if they used their retail chain to sell more stuff than just WH/40K, like in the good old days when they enjoyed rapid year on year growth.

This is the greatest problem I have with their current business strategy.. the term 'Games Workshop' hasn't really been valid for at least a decade or so now, and being content to release a 0.1 upgrade of the rules every few years, shuffle a few things round in a codex, rinse and repeat isn't really enough for those of us who have been playing long term! At least, from my own perspective, after dismounting at least 20,000 marines from a rhino it would be nice if GW could produce a change of scenery for when you want to try something different. But they don't, and so other games and manufacturers continue to grow.

Dreadfleet was a step back in the right direction, and it was a glimmer of what the company was once capable of, even if the general conception of the game was that it was poorly executed. On those grounds, yes perhaps it didn't instantly sell out, but it would be good if it had sold enough to make the bean counters consider giving another new game a try.