The publishing of a UN report on the human rights abuses by the North Korean state on its own people would be shocking if it wasn't so expected.
Testimony given to the panel from defectors included an account of a woman forced to drown her own baby, children imprisoned from birth and starved, and families tortured for watching a foreign soap opera.
thats just the tip of the iceberg going by some of the interviews that I have listened to today.
North Korea is clearly deeply, deeply broken and it will probably be the next generation's holocaust but what can be done about it? Its a nuclear power so military force would be a really bad idea, diplomacy won't work as it so insular and it has China's backing, its populace is so downtrodden that a rebellion is extremely unlikely. I just can't see a way of resolving this horrible situation.
I find it depressing that such a totalitarian state is allowed to 'thrive' so soon after WWII.
Palindrome wrote: I find it depressing that such a totalitarian state is allowed to 'thrive' so soon after WWII.
Thrive isn't the word I'd use to describe NK, it does manage to limp along thanks to the support of the Chinese who use it as a buffer for their border. So to answer your question about what is to be done with NK I believe the short answer is "Nothing", at least until China decides it has grown weary of its neighbour.
I doubt that even China has the power to do much with NK. If china withdrew its support, or more importantly its trade, all that would mean is that the NK populace would suffer even more.
And quiet frankly what can we do about it? That regime will not be removed short of military action, and as someone who spent 4 years training to fight that war... feth that noise. I want no part of it.
And that doesn't even touch what happens afterwards. Even a clean reintegration would still destroy S. Korea. Your talking bringing a nation that wishes it was third world and overnight cojoining it to a first world nation. Millions of people who have less then a kindergarten level education. Folks who have absolutely no workable skills beyond farming whatever meager scratch they've been able to survive on. It would devastate the South, and honestly I feel they really don't want any part of it.
N. Korea is one of those sad chapters of this world that there is really nothing we can do. All we can do is hope that one day its people will be able to stand up and say enough is enough.
Its a safe bet for the UN to release such a report. A coalition won't form to take on this part of the axis of evil and the NK's will just carry on but with even more propaganda to use on the indoctrinated masses.
Nothing will happen and I suspect nothing will be the watchword for quite sometime.
Yes they do, but not enough to force NK to change its ways.
They can cut of food and economic support in a heartbeat, remove any political cover on a whim, and it's military is more numerous, better lead, better trained, and better equipped. China has plenty of power over NK. But it is not currently in their interests to do anything about it.
A fair few of my students are South Korean, and it's interesting as hell to talk to them about this. Their main concern is for their families (most are from Seoul) if war breaks out again. You can see them getting a lot more tense each time they consider going home for holidays.
Lovely students, the lot of them. Hard working, thoughtful, helpful and polite.
China wants the secure border that NK represent in its current form from western "influence". NK over time. Going to collapse but in its death throes many countries will be blamed for not "helping" the people.
I could imagine that any direct action against North Korea would see horrific casualties to the downtrodden populace.
China holds the key to setting these people free. They should be pressing harder on the Leadership and Military, but as already pointed out it suits them to have NK on their border and on their side.
If NK collapses of it's own accord I'd expect a lot of it's nuclear materials to be acquired by unfriendly sources.
The fact that a cult of personality was allowed to fester in the North for so long is pretty shameful.
They can cut of food and economic support in a heartbeat, remove any political cover on a whim, and it's military is more numerous, better lead, better trained, and better equipped.
And what would that actually do other than pile even more suffering on the NK populace? A military 'solution' is anything but as long as NK has a nuclear arsenal.
A change in Chinese attitudes would be very welcome but by itself its not a real solution.
Because it serves their purpose to have a madman with nukes drawing attention away from them.
They're not fond of NK waving nuclear weapons around. But they see any western involvement as interference as being on their patch, being a neighbouring Asian country. They just don't like it. China isn't so different in some thinking to North Korea, try talking about Tiananmen Square in public and see how well it goes down with police.
I've a feeling China will at the point of total collapse step in and assume the of government and make it like it their "territory" like Puerto Rico, Guam, and some Carribean Islands. Why spend money on shoring up defensive positions on China/NK border while NK southern border with South Korea is shored up with a whole slew of different type of positions and the Injem(?) River in the western corridger.
Sadly i think nothing should be done with them for now. A war would hurt all the countries involved. I feel really bad for the people that live there, hopefully their government digs their own grave quickly.
I was just about to start a post on this topic, and saw that one already existed.
As someone who lived in Korea (the South!) for a few years, continues to travel there, has Korean friends and a great interest and respect for their culture and history, I have to say I find this latest news both heartbreaking but also completely un-surprising.
It's a good question; what is to be done? Sanctions are a waste of time, it is the poor rather than the ruling elite that suffer, and the government will use it to motivate anti-Western sentiment.
Allow it to continue, and hope that a revolution takes place from within NK? A few years ago, my great hope after the death of Kim Jong Il was that the country would have its 'night of the long knives'. A number of key ministers and military heads would disappear (including the 'dear leader'), a group of military heads would take over. Some dialogue would then begin with both China, South Korea and the rest of the world. The door would open just a crack.. that is all it would need, money, ideas and basic freedoms of thought and expression would start to colour the country, a slow improvement would come over many years. Sadly, the night of the long knives has come, but it is the wrong people that stand as victors. Sadly, I find this outcome unlikely for the immediate future, less likely as time goes on.
Military action? I find it incredible (and also horrifying) that this was seriously tabled as a recommendation by senior Hawks in the Bush administration some years ago. It would be insanity. At the very least hundreds of thousands dead, the modern metropolis of Seoul reduced to burning rubble even as the North would (eventually) be conquered. This option would at least give mean that the country would, quite literally, be built up from nothing again. Although, I don't think we would ever be forgiven. Fortunately senior US military dismissed the idea as untenable, although the possibility of an accident as a precursor to war remains.
Would it be possible to destroy the NK senior leadership in a single military strike? I'm sure China has the technology and the means.. but would obviously not do such a thing predicated on human suffering, unless it felt pressured by an increasingly belligerent NK and the threat of nuclear war on the peninsula.
As far as I'm concerned, the only option is for China to take a lead. With the recent death (by artillery) of the chief NK liaison to China, there was a severing of ties for the first time in years, and another delegation of senior diplomats recently travelled to Pyongyang. According to some friends who are in the region, and some SK press, there is the feeling that China is starting to lose a little patience with its wayward neighbour. China is starting to step up as a player in international politics, beyond its role as economic power. Closer trade ties with the West, with Australia, a gradual movement away from controlled economies and towards greater civil liberties. It is a gradual, and slow, process but I think the country is starting to become a more respected (rather than disparaged) member on the world stage. I think perhaps now that it is starting to realise it has some responsibility for the destiny of NK and its people, and I wonder (and also hope) that steps will be taken to try and bring influence to bear on NK.
The alternative, of the continuing human suffering and possibility of war, I find unconscionable. When I see how affluent SK has become, the potential there (when their deranged, archaic despotism of a leadership has been stripped away) is plain to see, and the continued existence of the NK state, in its current form, is most likely one of the greatest crimes against humanity that currently exists.
It's so bizarre, just last night a friend and I watched a documentary by PBS on NK. Showed footage of emaciated children picking things off the ground to eat, and lots of other malnourished people just wandering around listless and aloof. Obviously it was selected footage, but the people were in a marketplace-like area. If this is how it is in some totally public areas, imagine where the really bad areas are, and inside the detention camps. I saw smuggled footage of inside the camps of men standing nude inside thin vats of what are allegedly cells full of tannins for some kind of harsh chemical - no doubt performing some sort of extremely unsafe labor. It must be utter horror and misery inside the camps.
Palindrome wrote: And what would that actually do other than pile even more suffering on the NK populace? A military 'solution' is anything but as long as NK has a nuclear arsenal.
A change in Chinese attitudes would be very welcome but by itself its not a real solution.
I'm interested in hearing what you consider to be a real solution to NK on China's part.
And what would that actually do other than pile even more suffering on the NK populace?
In the same way you put down an injured animal to prevent further suffering.
What is better?
A few years of total famine and ruin leading to a few million deaths followed by reorganization and modernization OR hundreds of years of slightly less pain and suffering at the hand of their own leaders?
its a gakky situation all around, so we choose the least gakky solution, which unfortunately will never happen.
Dreadclaw69 wrote: Thrive isn't the word I'd use to describe NK, it does manage to limp along thanks to the support of the Chinese who use it as a buffer for their border. So to answer your question about what is to be done with NK I believe the short answer is "Nothing", at least until China decides it has grown weary of its neighbour.
China's support of North Korea is not about maintaining a buffer state. It's about alliances having inertia, even when it's been a long time since the ideology that originally underpinned that ideology has long since fallen away. And more than that, it's about the issue that if North Korea collapsed, China would have millions of refugees flooding in to its borders, and that's a problem that China is happy to not have right now. As North Korea's behaviour gets worse, China is increasingly unwilling to just keep kicking the can down the road, leading to China's increasing willingness to take the lead in dealing with North Korea.
And quiet frankly what can we do about it? That regime will not be removed short of military action, and as someone who spent 4 years training to fight that war... feth that noise. I want no part of it.
North Korea is dependant on aid. The aid has been given as the world has been unwilling to let people starve, even if it meant it might end up stabilising the regime.
But given the evidence of torture we've now seen, I suspect that reducing or removing that aid entirely is now likely - anything that helps the stability of the regime seems too great a cost now that their daily crimes against humanity are abundantly clear.
China isn't exactly the humanitarian regime as the rest of the world would like them to be... but, they're fething saints compared to NK.
Nah, as a piece of politics that makes no sense. China is protected from any kind of punishment for its own human rights abuses because they're an essential part of the world economy. Some people being locked up for bs political reasons here and there honesly just don't matter to the rest of the world when there's jobs at stake.
And even if that weren't the case, and somehow highlighting China's human rights abuses were somehow likely to make people disregard the economic implications and start punishing China... then China saying 'no, forget about us, look over there at North Korea (that we are propping up), they're really despicable'... isn't going to change that.
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Medium of Death wrote: I could imagine that any direct action against North Korea would see horrific casualties to the downtrodden populace.
China holds the key to setting these people free. They should be pressing harder on the Leadership and Military, but as already pointed out it suits them to have NK on their border and on their side.
North Korea is not a useful ally to China. North Korea is a bit like that kid on your street that used to be okay when you played GI Joe together, but now you're in to girls and he still hasn't figured out personal hygiene and just tries to talk about war and death all the time, and you kind of suspect he's been killing the local wildlife. So you get stuck with a choice to tell this guy you don't want to hang around with him anymore and worry that he might kill your cat, or to just kind of humour him every so often when there's no girls around.
Sometimes when some other kids turn up and have a go at him you feel like you have to defend him, even though you know they're mostly right.
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Jihadin wrote: I've a feeling China will at the point of total collapse step in and assume the of government and make it like it their "territory" like Puerto Rico, Guam, and some Carribean Islands. Why spend money on shoring up defensive positions on China/NK border while NK southern border with South Korea is shored up with a whole slew of different type of positions and the Injem(?) River in the western corridger.
That isn't China's decision alone, exactly how willing and able South Korea is to work towards reunion will play a large part. If North Korea did collapse, the talks between South Korea, China, Japan, the USA, the UN and a bunch of other parties about what resources were needed to stabilise the situation and begin a long term recovery effort, and who would be putting in would be fascinating.
Da Boss wrote: A fair few of my students are South Korean, and it's interesting as hell to talk to them about this. Their main concern is for their families (most are from Seoul) if war breaks out again. You can see them getting a lot more tense each time they consider going home for holidays.
Lovely students, the lot of them. Hard working, thoughtful, helpful and polite.
Yep, I had South Korean room mates and got into several conversations about this situation. I was living with them when there was an issue with a North Korean submarine being found right on their coast and they got downright pissed. One of my friends told me she'd rather marry a Japanese man before she'd even think of marrying a North Korean.
Sebster....are you saying you think China would want a unify Korea on their border? Think deeper on it. China can pull it off. Prop up a puppet regime and pretty much control North Korea. Hell we're doing it in Afghanistan.
Smuggling is thriving, I cant seem to find it (im at work and a lot of news sites get blocked)
I remember reading a story from a NK imigrant who came to america, and told his story. He was a fisher man, who would use his boat and connections to get into South Korea, get batteries and food, smuggle it back in and sell em to people who needed em and not even at like a huge mark up. He saved and did this for a few years got enough to come to america, where he was promptly tossed on his ass and became poorer than sin and had to beg for food. Wishing he had never left was something he said he never thought he would have to do.
Grey Templar wrote: That's probably the one case where it might have been a downgrade.
But considering the NK authorities would probably have shot him for doing that he at least got screwed on the right side of the fence.
again cant find it now, but he was paying off border guards from the NK to let him through. There is wayy less support for this regieme in power than we imagine. Its probably just like being a guardsmen tho, do what you are told or *BLAM*
I'm interested in hearing what you consider to be a real solution to NK on China's part.
There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.
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Kavik_Whitescar wrote: There is wayy less support for this regieme in power than we imagine. Its probably just like being a guardsmen tho, do what you are told or *BLAM*
I would imagine that there is only enforced public support by NKs populace and very little real affection for their leaders despite decades of brainwashing. There has not been a succesful, or even noticable, rebellion though so the state is obviously very good at suppressing any and all discontent.
Jihadin wrote: Sebster....are you saying you think China would want a unify Korea on their border? Think deeper on it.
No, China doesn't want a unified Korea, but that's not a question they would get to answer in isolation.
Instead the question is what China is willing to do, or to tolerate in order to prevent that unified Korea from happening. Consider a collapsed North Korea, refugees streaming across the border in to China, and the US, UN and South Korea approach China and tell them they're building a reintegration plan in which all North Korean refugees will be returned to this new Korean nation, saving China a load of money and hassle. Does China dislike a unified Korea enough to screw that up and end up with even more refugees?
China can pull it off. Prop up a puppet regime and pretty much control North Korea. Hell we're doing it in Afghanistan.
China can do lots of things. Right now any of those things is a mile away from things China actually wants to do, so instead they settle for just maintaining the status quo. My point is that that is a mile away from actually desiring the current situation.
I mean, don't forget it was China that eventually resolved the situation in Sri Lanka. Something India had failed to do, something the US wanted nothing to do with, but for China it was a key part of their access to African resources, so they did it. But with North Korea? It seems at this point the juice is not worth the squeeze.
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Kavik_Whitescar wrote: again cant find it now, but he was paying off border guards from the NK to let him through. There is wayy less support for this regieme in power than we imagine. Its probably just like being a guardsmen tho, do what you are told or *BLAM*
The stories of brainwashing and the like are wildly exaggerated. The borders are still quite porous and the people there aren't stupid. The problem is more like Stalinist Russia - that there is an unbelievable level of control exerted over the upper echelons of power, so that no individual or group of rivals is able to exist for any time at all. For a long time it was believed that like Stalinist Russia that system would disappear on the death of dear leader, but we're now in to our third generation of dear leader and control has barely waivered.
Frazzled wrote: Well there is an option that eliminates the NK threat, but it would require will and iron.
To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.
I don't hope you mean war? The US was unable to win a war against North Korea in the 50's, and as long as China supports North Korea, there is nothing that can be done by the West.
Hostile actions by the West would likely draw China into the conflict and China is likely to draw it's ally Russia into the conflict. Hello World War III.
The only thing we can do is either waiting for China to get tired of North Korea or a revolution in North Korea itself.
At most the West could keep some pressure on China and maybe Russia, so that they can put some pressure on North Korea.
I would also like to note that is report is not very reliable. It is heavily biased and only shows one side of the issue. It also relies on rumours and biased witnesses rather than solid evidence and indpendent research.
While it is without doubt that Korea is doing very bad things that would make Stalin blush; it should still be noted that propaganda is everywhere, especially in this report.
Frazzled wrote: Well there is an option that eliminates the NK threat, but it would require will and iron.
To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.
I don't hope you mean war? The US was unable to win a war against North Korea in the 50's, and as long as China supports North Korea, there is nothing that can be done by the West. Hostile actions by the West would likely draw China into the conflict and China is likely to draw it's ally Russia into the conflict. Hello World War III. The only thing we can do is either waiting for China to get tired of North Korea or a revolution in North Korea itself. At most the West could keep some pressure on China and maybe Russia, so that they can put some pressure on North Korea.
I would also like to note that is report is not very reliable. It is heavily biased and only shows one side of the issue. It also relies on rumours and biased witnesses rather than solid evidence and indpendent research. While it is without doubt that Korea is doing very bad things that would make Stalin blush; it should still be noted that propaganda is everywhere, especially in this report.
No not war, unless you consider the war lasting ~30 minutes flight time. Most people don't view that as an option unless NK attacks. So your other options revolve around containment.
Another US option of course, is just to say "wow that guys a nut. sucks to be you South Korea. Good thing its not our issue." and get the ^*%( out of there.
Palindrome wrote: There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.
So you post a thread asking what can be done with North Korea, shoot down suggestions as to what may play out, and then say that there is pretty much nothing that can be done anyway. Interesting way to hold a discussion
Palindrome wrote: There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.
So you post a thread asking what can be done with North Korea, shoot down suggestions as to what may play out, and then say that there is pretty much nothing that can be done anyway. Interesting way to hold a discussion
For once I agree with Dreadclaw. That's a rather... interesting way to hold a discussion.
The stories of brainwashing and the like are wildly exaggerated. The borders are still quite porous and the people there aren't stupid. The problem is more like Stalinist Russia - that there is an unbelievable level of control exerted over the upper echelons of power, so that no individual or group of rivals is able to exist for any time at all. For a long time it was believed that like Stalinist Russia that system would disappear on the death of dear leader, but we're now in to our third generation of dear leader and control has barely waivered.
I met a North Korean during my time in the country, she had swum to freedom over the border after teaching herself to swim. She left behind elderly parents but no other family, they had wanted the best for her and encouraged her to go. Incredibly strong character and certainly not a dumbo, although one has to only look at how the government manipulates the un-educated in the developed world (let alone in places such as NK) to see how its possible to easily direct people so that they solemnly act against their own best interests.
I've heard some quite interesting stories of pictures of Kim Jong Un/Il in newspapers being folded in half as a resistance sign, families and communities gathering to watch satellite TV (usually news or dramas from across the border), the sale of Chinese mobile phones allowing communication on a level not possible before.
But, after Kim Jong Un's ascension things have taken a step back. Flea markets, officially banned under Kim Jong Un but something that the authorities had previously turned a blind eye to as a necessity, have once again been stopped. As to have meetings of a certain number of people, and attempts to introduce an Orwellian/Gestapo esque rule on the populace have been resumed. The SK press has an absolute field day with this a lot of the time, writing about stuff that almost certainly isn't true in some cases, but no doubt there is a nugget of truth in amongst the mind-control drugs and people being fed to room's full of dogs.
I agree that perhaps the incentive isn't there right now for China to act. Perhaps if things start to escalate on the peninsula they might feel the need to do so.
Jihadin wrote: Sebster....are you saying you think China would want a unify Korea on their border? Think deeper on it. China can pull it off. Prop up a puppet regime and pretty much control North Korea. Hell we're doing it in Afghanistan.
Umm... no we aren't. Karzai is doing everything he possibly can to screw us (and his nation) over in his final months in office.
For once I agree with Dreadclaw. That's a rather... interesting way to hold a discussion.
Well I was looking for something feasable, a Chinese invasion of NK falls a bit short of that criteria.
There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.
There you go, I took out the name of the poster so you can pretend someone else answered yourself
There you go, I took out the name of the poster so you can pretend someone else answered yourself
Thanks for that, how about suggesting something useful?
I can see that this is degenerating into the usual pointless dakka slide into gak so It may as well get locked.
Mayhaps you could suggest something first. I'm still trying to find out what you think one country could do to another to motivate it besides economics sanctions and war. Voodoo?
Well beyond the nuclear option, I think the KPA would fold quite quickly.
North Korean army discipline is extremely bad. The famine conditions in the country combined with the monolithic power of the army has turned many military units into gangs of bandits, which often terrorize local towns for food and indeed even fight rival units for control. These internal battles can actually be quite large/bloody but are rarely reported much in the outside world. Chinese Border Guards also frequently have to deal with attempts at banditry by North Korean soldiers. They will sneak over the border and try to take their supplies.
A good example was in the weeks leading up to Kimmy killing his uncle, one gang of KPA soldiers attempted to take a fishery from another gang of soldiers (which had itself confiscated from locals), resulting in several hundred deaths.
There also have been many uprisings/acts of disobedience against the Communist regime throughout the decades, and the fallout from such has had the army kill hundreds of people. There have been multiple episodes of strikes/protests by workers demanding pay that isn't food rations, all ending rather bloodily. In 1995 an entire Corps of KPA soldiers left their posts and tried to march on Pyongyang, why exactly is not clear but they were probably swept up in the anti-Communist revolutions at the time and were in the middle of a very bad famine. It did not end well and thousands of the mutineers were sent to camps or executed.
The army is held together under a machine of terror thanks to the Pyongyang-based Military Counterintelligence Agency, but it's extremely unstable and with the horrible conditions in North Korea the units already have balkanized in a dog-eat-dog atmosphere. This extends to the highest levels, i.e. the Kim family only trusts certain army units. Most notably Supreme Guard Command, his ~100,000 force of bodyguards meant to defend Pyongyang from an attempted coup. Forces under Pyongyang Defense Command (~60,000) and the 3rd Army Corps (~30,000 strong directly south of the capital) make up the only units the Kim Family trust and will go anywhere near for an extended period. In contrast, the large force of KPA soldiers along the DMZ is seen as politically unreliable and under the influence of Generals who have their own spheres of influence. These Generals are as much businessmen and administrators as they are commanders, and run local black markets, enterprises, agriculture, and so on.
Granted, Kim is actually trying to rectifying this by launching a purge across the country right now that I'm sure has heavily hit the military (indeed, several high-ranking officers are assumed dead). Officers with ties to China in particularly are being targeted. Behind the anti-uncle, anti-china, paranoia though is clearly an attempt to reassert Pyongyang's control over the KPA though. A control that fell apart under Kim Jong-Il.
So what would we see in an invasion scenario? The army units (especially on the DMZ, which are under the harshest surveillance to ensure they don't defect and primarily drawn from southern areas where the famines are the worst) would probably fold quickly, either surrendering or scattering and looting local North Korean villages for food. However, in the end, I won't be shocked if the KPA units on the DMZ and Chinese Border under the influence of Warlord-like Generals eventually duke it out with the Kim loyalists around Pyongyang. Supreme Guard Command actually worries me a bit though, and would probably actually fight to the death since they're predominately drawn from locals of the Pyongyang/suburbs area and are indeed brainwashed from teenagers to worship the Kim Family as Gods (a stereotype otherwise not true with most of North Korea, imo).
Harriticus wrote: Well beyond the nuclear option, I think the KPA would fold quite quickly.
North Korean army discipline is extremely bad. The famine conditions in the country combined with the monolithic power of the army has turned many military units into gangs of bandits, which often terrorize local towns for food and indeed even fight rival units for control. These internal battles can actually be quite large/bloody but are rarely reported much in the outside world. Chinese Border Guards also frequently have to deal with attempts at banditry by North Korean soldiers. They will sneak over the border and try to take their supplies.
A good example was in the weeks leading up to Kimmy killing his uncle, one gang of KPA soldiers attempted to take a fishery from another gang of soldiers (which had itself confiscated from locals), resulting in several hundred deaths.
There also have been many uprisings/acts of disobedience against the Communist regime throughout the decades, and the fallout from such has had the army kill hundreds of people. There have been multiple episodes of strikes/protests by workers demanding pay that isn't food rations, all ending rather bloodily. In 1995 an entire Corps of KPA soldiers left their posts and tried to march on Pyongyang, why exactly is not clear but they were probably swept up in the anti-Communist revolutions at the time and were in the middle of a very bad famine. It did not end well and thousands of the mutineers were sent to camps or executed.
The army is held together under a machine of terror thanks to the Pyongyang-based Military Counterintelligence Agency, but it's extremely unstable and with the horrible conditions in North Korea the units already have balkanized in a dog-eat-dog atmosphere. This extends to the highest levels, i.e. the Kim family only trusts certain army units. Most notably Supreme Guard Command, his ~100,000 force of bodyguards meant to defend Pyongyang from an attempted coup. Forces under Pyongyang Defense Command (~60,000) and the 3rd Army Corps (~30,000 strong directly south of the capital) make up the only units the Kim Family trust and will go anywhere near for an extended period. In contrast, the large force of KPA soldiers along the DMZ is seen as politically unreliable and under the influence of Generals who have their own spheres of influence. These Generals are as much businessmen and administrators as they are commanders, and run local black markets, enterprises, agriculture, and so on.
Granted, Kim is actually trying to rectifying this by launching a purge across the country right now that I'm sure has heavily hit the military (indeed, several high-ranking officers are assumed dead). Officers with ties to China in particularly are being targeted. Behind the anti-uncle, anti-china, paranoia though is clearly an attempt to reassert Pyongyang's control over the KPA though. A control that fell apart under Kim Jong-Il.
So what would we see in an invasion scenario? The army units (especially on the DMZ, which are under the harshest surveillance to ensure they don't defect and primarily drawn from southern areas where the famines are the worst) would probably fold quickly, either surrendering or scattering and looting local North Korean villages for food. However, in the end, I won't be shocked if the KPA units on the DMZ and Chinese Border under the influence of Warlord-like Generals eventually duke it out with the Kim loyalists around Pyongyang. Supreme Guard Command actually worries me a bit though, and would probably actually fight to the death since they're predominately drawn from locals of the Pyongyang/suburbs area and are indeed brainwashed from teenagers to worship the Kim Family as Gods (a stereotype otherwise not true with most of North Korea, imo).
I learned a lot that I did not know from this post.
I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.
The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.
You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?
Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
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Grey Templar wrote: I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.
When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.
The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.
You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?
Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
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Grey Templar wrote: I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.
When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.
The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.
You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?
Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Grey Templar wrote: I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.
Not really. We know the Ork weapons can work.
North Korea put a satellite into orbit ahead of South Korea, just saying.
When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.
The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.
You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?
Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Grey Templar wrote: I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.
Not really. We know the Ork weapons can work.
North Korea put a satellite into orbit ahead of South Korea, just saying.
Did the satellite even work? For all we know, it could've been a big Rok.
When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.
The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.
You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?
Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Grey Templar wrote: I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.
Not really. We know the Ork weapons can work.
North Korea put a satellite into orbit ahead of South Korea, just saying.
South Korea makes tens of thousands of cars and other vehicles a year. Plus they manage to feed their people. NK, not so much.
According to a talking head on Radio4 yesterday NK has better standard of nutrition than India, not exactly a great accolade but they aren't actually starving, or if they are its probably by design.
Easy E wrote: Yeah, but the point of getting a satellite in orbit is to show-off that you can handle ICBM technology too.
IIRC, getting something into orbit is actually easier than designing a missile that both exits and reenters the atmosphere. while also designing a nuclear warhead and its trigger mechanism.
Palindrome wrote: According to a talking head on Radio4 yesterday NK has better standard of nutrition than India, not exactly a great accolade but they aren't actually starving, or if they are its probably by design.
Uh... and who's giving out that sort of information? That's like saying that Cuban's Healthcare is better than the US...
Easy E wrote: Yeah, but the point of getting a satellite in orbit is to show-off that you can handle ICBM technology too.
IIRC, getting something into orbit is actually easier than designing a missile that both exits and reenters the atmosphere. while also designing a nuclear warhead and its trigger mechanism.
Not only that, but giving it a targeting mechanism as well. You definitely don't want to fire a nuke into low orbit, and have it land in your capital.
If I may use an analogy, it's one thing kicking a ball into the air. Kicking the ball into the air and sending it to where you want it, on the other hand, is a different matter.
I learned a lot that I did not know from this post.
I didn't know any of that stuff either. Can I ask, are you in the military Harraticus?
Grey Templar wrote: - I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
They have one of the largest artillery components of any army in the world, possibly the largest. Most of it is aimed at Seoul. Even in the most optimistic of scenarios, where pre-emptive simultaneous strikes can take out of percentage of that force, they would still cause an absolutely horrendous amount of damage.
Seoul is a great city. It's first world, the people living there have spent 50 years building it into the metropolis it is today, I'm sure the people living there (or what will be left of them) won't want to start over!
When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.
The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.
You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?
Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Grey Templar wrote: I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.
And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...
On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.
Not really. We know the Ork weapons can work.
North Korea put a satellite into orbit ahead of South Korea, just saying.
South Korea makes tens of thousands of cars and other vehicles a year. Plus they manage to feed their people. NK, not so much.
And yet the North got to orbit first. What I'm saying is that I think it's bad to completely write off the technology of North Korea. Sure, a lot of it is rather shoddy, but they were still good enough to beat South Korea, a nation with high-tech as their national stereotype, into orbit.
I'm going to play devil's advocate and say that just because NK managed to launch a satellite into orbit does not necessarily mean that they have the capability to reliably launch and guide a missile, complete with payload, to it's target.
Palindrome wrote: According to a talking head on Radio4 yesterday NK has better standard of nutrition than India, not exactly a great accolade but they aren't actually starving, or if they are its probably by design.
Uh... and who's giving out that sort of information? That's like saying that Cuban's Healthcare is better than the US...
According to the CIA World Factbook Cuba is ahead of the USA on on infant mortality and almost the same on life expectancy at birth.
Palindrome wrote: According to a talking head on Radio4 yesterday NK has better standard of nutrition than India, not exactly a great accolade but they aren't actually starving, or if they are its probably by design.
Uh... and who's giving out that sort of information? That's like saying that Cuban's Healthcare is better than the US...
According to the CIA World Factbook Cuba is ahead of the USA on on infant mortality and almost the same on life expectancy at birth.
Again... how is that data acquired? This is the sort of question you need to be asking when acquiring data from anywhere.
Just like the UK folks like to point out the differences between how UK count's "violent crimes" vs the US... the World Factbook is based on what the country reports.
Unless, you think there's spooks in every Cuban hospitals.
Well, according Bloomberg, Cuba's quite a bit better than the US in terms of health, but I also imagine the typical American diet doesn't help our numbers much.
RatBot wrote: Well, according Bloomberg, Cuba's quite a bit better than the US in terms of health, but I also imagine the typical American diet doesn't help our numbers much.
EDIT: I also don't know how they arrived at these numbers and I haven't got time right now to do more digging.
I deal with these datasets for a living...
The biggest things to keep in mind is that that of the Cuban government’s heavy-handed enforcement of statistical targets and the lack of transparency... many experts would suggest taking these numbers with a grain (or feth ton) of salt.
And it's not just Cuba... it's Every. fething. Country. On. The. Planet.
There are deviations in the fundamental terminologies, reporting accuracy, data sources, populations, and cultural-medical practices... that making apples-to-apples comparison between these countries extremely problematic.
Besides... NK is still supposedly wracked by famine.
My wife is Korean. I speak Korean. I have a fair amount of family there. I spent many years there in the military and still go every few years. I still see videos smuggled out by certain groups that are allowed into North Korea... I saw a lot of stuff when I was in uniform, stuff the South Koreans tried to present to the American government that came out with escaped ROK prisoners. No one in the American governments wanted to listen from what I could tell..
North Korea is the world's largest concentration camp. It is far worse than even most refugees talk about. What makes it worse is it has death camps like Kwan-li-so 16 and 22 for so long that the basic structure of human family does not exist there. Families are sentenced there for life (parents, grandparents, children for the crime of a single person not smiling enough or missing a step in a televised parade). 22 is where the last of the South Korean soldiers from the Korean War were placed when they closed the mines after the last of the Americans died. After the parents die and the kids have kids without any values system instilled it is very scary what humans can do to other "family" members.
Most refugees do not come from the death camps. I know of 2 in the last 12 years that have made it out. Believe me when I tell you they have not, and will not talk about most of what happens there to most folks and never to reporters or the press. They figure out quick no one wants to hear about it, not really. So what you see on the Internet, as bad as it looks, pales to the truth.
Kim Jung-eun killed off all those who might have been a threat to him along with their families in the last year. He lived thru two assassination attempts in late 2012 and early 2013. He is there to stay. He knows if he ever loses power he will die. He is married to Ri Sol-ju and has a daughter by her. He had anyone who she had been with prior to that killed off along with anyone in North Korea who mentioned it for an image of purity to be maintained. There was not a pornographic video tape as had been suggested in the news. No one raised in North Korean would have even considered such a sure fire execution kind of thing.
You can not use conventional ideas of rational thought when thinking about the leaders of North Korea. All the rational ones are dead, with their families. They have been abducting women for over 40 years, not just oriental as most believe. European countries for the most part when not oriental and at least one American male, David Sneddon. Almost all to train spies...really.
If they think sending the army south will buy them a few more years they will do so.
If they think nuking an American city with a bomb smuggled in via a shipping container just to prove to an American President that they can and they will nuke a second or third to keep the the world off them, they will.
All of those thinking the Chinese will deal with them had better think again. The Chinese are terrified of the thought that they will be blamed for what North Korea might do.
One of the assassination attempts was Chinese, the other was not...
What you see going on in Kiev will never happen in North Korea.
You had better believe that the first thing most responsible world leaders gets brief on each morning is North Korea.
My personal estimate... One day the Chinese will get a OK signal that there are no unaccounted for North Korean pig boats and the Chinese will take out all the nuclear sites in North Korea and wipe out the entire line.
For the folks in North Korea I hope that time comes soon....
My wife is Korean. I speak Korean. I have a fair amount of family there. I spent many years there in the military and still go every few years. I still see videos smuggled out by certain groups that are allowed into North Korea... I saw a lot of stuff when I was in uniform, stuff the South Koreans tried to present to the American government that came out with escaped ROK prisoners. No one in the American governments wanted to listen from what I could tell..
North Korea is the world's largest concentration camp. It is far worse than even most refugees talk about. What makes it worse is it has death camps like Kwan-li-so 16 and 22 for so long that the basic structure of human family does not exist there. Families are sentenced there for life (parents, grandparents, children for the crime of a single person not smiling enough or missing a step in a televised parade). 22 is where the last of the South Korean soldiers from the Korean War were placed when they closed the mines after the last of the Americans died. After the parents die and the kids have kids without any values system instilled it is very scary what humans can do to other "family" members.
Most refugees do not come from the death camps. I know of 2 in the last 12 years that have made it out. Believe me when I tell you they have not, and will not talk about most of what happens there to most folks and never to reporters or the press. They figure out quick no one wants to hear about it, not really. So what you see on the Internet, as bad as it looks, pales to the truth.
Kim Jung-eun killed off all those who might have been a threat to him along with their families in the last year. He lived thru two assassination attempts in late 2012 and early 2013. He is there to stay. He knows if he ever loses power he will die. He is married to Ri Sol-ju and has a daughter by her. He had anyone who she had been with prior to that killed off along with anyone in North Korea who mentioned it for an image of purity to be maintained. There was not a pornographic video tape as had been suggested in the news. No one raised in North Korean would have even considered such a sure fire execution kind of thing.
You can not use conventional ideas of rational thought when thinking about the leaders of North Korea. All the rational ones are dead, with their families. They have been abducting women for over 40 years, not just oriental as most believe. European countries for the most part when not oriental and at least one American male, David Sneddon. Almost all to train spies...really.
If they think sending the army south will buy them a few more years they will do so.
If they think nuking an American city with a bomb smuggled in via a shipping container just to prove to an American President that they can and they will nuke a second or third to keep the the world off them, they will.
All of those thinking the Chinese will deal with them had better think again. The Chinese are terrified of the thought that they will be blamed for what North Korea might do.
One of the assassination attempts was Chinese, the other was not...
What you see going on in Kiev will never happen in North Korea.
You had better believe that the first thing most responsible world leaders gets brief on each morning is North Korea.
My personal estimate... One day the Chinese will get a OK signal that there are no unaccounted for North Korean pig boats and the Chinese will take out all the nuclear sites in North Korea and wipe out the entire line.
For the folks in North Korea I hope that time comes soon....
Dreadclaw69 wrote: I'm going to play devil's advocate and say that just because NK managed to launch a satellite into orbit does not necessarily mean that they have the capability to reliably launch and guide a missile, complete with payload, to it's target.
Again, missing my point. All I'm saying is that it's silly to completely dismiss North Korean technology as useless and defective.
Given what we know about NK technology, we can confidently say they won't be launching nukes any farther than South Korea. And maybe Japan if they get really lucky.
Palindrome wrote: According to a talking head on Radio4 yesterday NK has better standard of nutrition than India, not exactly a great accolade but they aren't actually starving, or if they are its probably by design.
Uh... and who's giving out that sort of information? That's like saying that Cuban's Healthcare is better than the US...
According to the CIA World Factbook Cuba is ahead of the USA on on infant mortality and almost the same on life expectancy at birth.
Again... how is that data acquired? This is the sort of question you need to be asking when acquiring data from anywhere.
Just like the UK folks like to point out the differences between how UK count's "violent crimes" vs the US... the World Factbook is based on what the country reports.
Unless, you think there's spooks in every Cuban hospitals.
You are assuming the Cuban data is false. If it is, you can't use dodgy data to support your argument any more than I can. Your proposition about comparing Cuban and US healthcare is incorrect at the outset.
FWIW the USA has somewhat worse public health than a lot of genuinely comparable countries like the UK or Japan.
Grey Templar wrote: Given what we know about NK technology, we can confidently say they won't be launching nukes any farther than South Korea. And maybe Japan if they get really lucky.
Which I am sure is a great comfort to South Korea and Japan.
If it is, you can't use dodgy data to support your argument any more than I can. Your proposition about comparing Cuban and US healthcare is incorrect at the outset.
False. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't treat these datasets from various countries as gospel.
FWIW the USA has somewhat worse public health than a lot of genuinely comparable countries like the UK or Japan.
There's a huge distinction between the level of healthcare one can receive vs how healthy a certain population is...
Back to OP: I'm challenging that statement that NK's diet is better that India.
There are quite a few countries with a worse diet that NK going by that report, including india. The data tables are at the bottom (page 122).
I've seen that before...
Again, dash a healthy splash of salt, especially when dealing with NK. They don't just let anybody, much less a UN representative, to show up and start taking in data.
But, then again, asian food are generally "healthier" so I'm not totally discounting that.
If it is, you can't use dodgy data to support your argument any more than I can. Your proposition about comparing Cuban and US healthcare is incorrect at the outset.
False. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't treat these datasets from various countries as gospel.
FWIW the USA has somewhat worse public health than a lot of genuinely comparable countries like the UK or Japan.
There's a huge distinction between the level of healthcare one can receive vs how healthy a certain population is...
Back to OP: I'm challenging that statement that NK's diet is better that India.
You picked Cuba to contrast with the USA. It was implicit in that choice that you either place some kind of credence in the published stats or in some idea you've made up. When you say the published stats are useless readers can draw their own conclusions as to your intentions.
There's a huge distinction between the level of healthcare one can receive vs how healthy a certain population is...
It's a distinction without any meaning for the general populace.
The Dear Leader of NK gets healthcare just as good as the President of the USA. The average citizen in the USA has in theory the opportunity to get healthcare as good as anyone in western Europe as long as he can get insurance from his job, etc.
The total population health stats from the USA are worse than from comparable countries. The health stats from NK are not officially available but from all we know they are pretty dreadful.
I agree with you that the NK diet is worse than the Indian diet.
If it is, you can't use dodgy data to support your argument any more than I can. Your proposition about comparing Cuban and US healthcare is incorrect at the outset.
False. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't treat these datasets from various countries as gospel.
FWIW the USA has somewhat worse public health than a lot of genuinely comparable countries like the UK or Japan.
There's a huge distinction between the level of healthcare one can receive vs how healthy a certain population is...
Back to OP: I'm challenging that statement that NK's diet is better that India.
You picked Cuba to contrast with the USA.
Yes I did... I said:
Uh... and who's giving out that sort of information? That's like saying that Cuban's Healthcare is better than the US...
It was implicit in that choice that you either place some kind of credence in the published stats or in some idea you've made up. When you say the published stats are useless readers can draw their own conclusions as to your intentions.
*sigh*
So, you'll believe what ever that comes out of NK or Cuba?
There's a huge distinction between the level of healthcare one can receive vs how healthy a certain population is...
It's a distinction without any meaning for the general populace.
Huh?
The Dear Leader of NK gets healthcare just as good as the President of the USA. The average citizen in the USA has in theory the opportunity to get healthcare as good as anyone in western Europe as long as he can get insurance from his job, etc.
That's not what I'm arguing...
I'm questioning any datasets from NK (or Cuba).
The total population health stats from the USA are worse than from comparable countries.
I'm not arguing otherwise.... American is gluttonous compared to most other countries.
The health stats from NK are not officially available but from all we know they are pretty dreadful.
I agree with you that the NK diet is worse than the Indian diet.
Dreadclaw69 wrote: I'm going to play devil's advocate and say that just because NK managed to launch a satellite into orbit does not necessarily mean that they have the capability to reliably launch and guide a missile, complete with payload, to it's target.
Again, missing my point. All I'm saying is that it's silly to completely dismiss North Korean technology as useless and defective.
We finally agree on something, and then you go out of your way to disagree with me I never said that NK technology was "useless and defective". What I said was that there is a difference in technology, planning, logistics, etc. in launching a satellite into orbit and launching an ICBM and having it hit it's designated target coordinates. Evidence of achieving one does not prove the capability to perform the other.
Dreadclaw69 wrote: I'm going to play devil's advocate and say that just because NK managed to launch a satellite into orbit does not necessarily mean that they have the capability to reliably launch and guide a missile, complete with payload, to it's target.
Again, missing my point. All I'm saying is that it's silly to completely dismiss North Korean technology as useless and defective.
We finally agree on something, and then you go out of your way to disagree with me I never said that NK technology was "useless and defective". What I said was that there is a difference in technology, planning, logistics, etc. in launching a satellite into orbit and launching an ICBM and having it hit it's designated target coordinates. Evidence of achieving one does not prove the capability to perform the other.
In 1998 they launched a missile directly over my head in Japan. They purposefully fired a medium ranged missile directly over a US base there, to show they could. Sure, their ICBM capabilities may suck, but they have the ability to deliver payload anywhere in Japan, to include all of our military installations.
The fact that the US is capable of chucking a missile anywhere in the world means that it is completely physically feasible, and the North Koreans can and will replicate that achievement should they devote enough time and resources to it. It might take them the next twenty, or even fifty years,but they will manage it.
Western countries always seem to suffer from this mildly arrogant delusion that only they are capable of research and development. We saw it in 1905, we saw it in 1941, and we'll probably see it again in the future.
Ketara wrote: The fact that the US is capable of chucking a missile anywhere in the world means that it is completely physically feasible, and the North Koreans can and will replicate that achievement should they devote enough time and resources to it. It might take them the next twenty, or even fifty years,but they will manage it.
Western countries always seem to suffer from this mildly arrogant delusion that only they are capable of research and development. We saw it in 1905, we saw it in 1941, and we'll probably see it again in the future.
We are hardly delusional on that. It's why we spend so much money on R&D, to stay ahead of the race. All the people screaming that we don't need such advanced stuff, are the ones who want to see everyone else gain parity/the lead.
djones520 wrote: In 1998 they launched a missile directly over my head in Japan. They purposefully fired a medium ranged missile directly over a US base there, to show they could. Sure, their ICBM capabilities may suck, but they have the ability to deliver payload anywhere in Japan, to include all of our military installations.
Fair point, I'd forgotten about that. I assume that we've invested more heavily in missile interception capabilities for our Japanese bases since.
Was that the same launch where they also threatened to treat it as an act of war if anyone shot their missile down? Or was that another incident?
djones520 wrote: In 1998 they launched a missile directly over my head in Japan. They purposefully fired a medium ranged missile directly over a US base there, to show they could. Sure, their ICBM capabilities may suck, but they have the ability to deliver payload anywhere in Japan, to include all of our military installations.
Fair point, I'd forgotten about that. I assume that we've invested more heavily in missile interception capabilities for our Japanese bases since.
Was that the same launch where they also threatened to treat it as an act of war if anyone shot their missile down? Or was that another incident?
That's what I'd thought but I just wanted to double check.
As much as I might like to see NK gone tomorrow it won't happen without China becoming agreeable. NK's loss shrinks China's sphere of influence, and presently it serves as a nice distraction for the time being.
Ketara wrote: The fact that the US is capable of chucking a missile anywhere in the world means that it is completely physically feasible, and the North Koreans can and will replicate that achievement should they devote enough time and resources to it. It might take them the next twenty, or even fifty years,but they will manage it.
Western countries always seem to suffer from this mildly arrogant delusion that only they are capable of research and development. We saw it in 1905, we saw it in 1941, and we'll probably see it again in the future.
I think its the 9,000 nuclear warheads help provide comfort to us. Plus our navy ships are starting to sport lasers and rail guns. As soon as we prove out our new SHARKSWITHFRIGGINGLAZERBEAMS Program we'll be good to go.
Ketara wrote: The fact that the US is capable of chucking a missile anywhere in the world means that it is completely physically feasible, and the North Koreans can and will replicate that achievement should they devote enough time and resources to it. It might take them the next twenty, or even fifty years,but they will manage it.
Western countries always seem to suffer from this mildly arrogant delusion that only they are capable of research and development. We saw it in 1905, we saw it in 1941, and we'll probably see it again in the future.
We are hardly delusional on that. It's why we spend so much money on R&D, to stay ahead of the race. All the people screaming that we don't need such advanced stuff, are the ones who want to see everyone else gain parity/the lead.
You say that, but when I see comments like this, I do wonder...
Grey Templar wrote: Given what we know about NK technology, we can confidently say they won't be launching nukes any farther than South Korea. And maybe Japan if they get really lucky.
Ketara wrote: The fact that the US is capable of chucking a missile anywhere in the world means that it is completely physically feasible, and the North Koreans can and will replicate that achievement should they devote enough time and resources to it. It might take them the next twenty, or even fifty years,but they will manage it.
Western countries always seem to suffer from this mildly arrogant delusion that only they are capable of research and development. We saw it in 1905, we saw it in 1941, and we'll probably see it again in the future.
We are hardly delusional on that. It's why we spend so much money on R&D, to stay ahead of the race. All the people screaming that we don't need such advanced stuff, are the ones who want to see everyone else gain parity/the lead.
You say that, but when I see comments like this, I do wonder...
Grey Templar wrote: Given what we know about NK technology, we can confidently say they won't be launching nukes any farther than South Korea. And maybe Japan if they get really lucky.
Well Templar isn't the guy who determines how money is spent in R&D.
Ketara wrote: The fact that the US is capable of chucking a missile anywhere in the world means that it is completely physically feasible, and the North Koreans can and will replicate that achievement should they devote enough time and resources to it. It might take them the next twenty, or even fifty years,but they will manage it.
Western countries always seem to suffer from this mildly arrogant delusion that only they are capable of research and development. We saw it in 1905, we saw it in 1941, and we'll probably see it again in the future.
We are hardly delusional on that. It's why we spend so much money on R&D, to stay ahead of the race. All the people screaming that we don't need such advanced stuff, are the ones who want to see everyone else gain parity/the lead.
You say that, but when I see comments like this, I do wonder...
Grey Templar wrote: Given what we know about NK technology, we can confidently say they won't be launching nukes any farther than South Korea. And maybe Japan if they get really lucky.
If we were really afraid, then it would be in our enlightened best interest to nuke them now before they develop the technology. Is that what you're advocating?
On the subject of R&D; Did those kinetic bombardment weapons ever progress any further? I remember seeing them talked about a few years ago (I think the concept goes back even further) but it seemed to be starting off again.
Frazzled wrote: As soon as we prove out our new SHARKSWITHFRIGGINGLAZERBEAMS Program we'll be good to go.
Rodney the wiener dog faced off against a pit mix and some other dog Sunday. Fortunately he had heavy back up in the form of a half mountain dog mix and Frazzled (not sure who is furrier, me or the mountain dog).
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Medium of Death wrote: On the subject of R&D; Did those kinetic bombardment weapons ever progress any further? I remember seeing them talked about a few years ago (I think the concept goes back even further) but it seemed to be starting off again.
Frazzled wrote: As soon as we prove out our new SHARKSWITHFRIGGINGLAZERBEAMS Program we'll be good to go.
...sea bass.
Are you talking satellite dropped kinetic weapons?
Are you talking satellite dropped kinetic weapons?
djones520 wrote: I had to look up what you were talking about MoD. I'm guessing it's still in research stage.
Yeah I think I saw it on that Future Weapons show on the discovery channel or something like that. I could have sworn their was test footage of them using inert metal poles to destroy a bunker. I might be getting confused though and it was probably all CGI, but it was implied that it was coming back.
Are you talking satellite dropped kinetic weapons?
djones520 wrote: I had to look up what you were talking about MoD. I'm guessing it's still in research stage.
Yeah I think I saw it on that Future Weapons show on the discovery channel or something like that. I could have sworn their was test footage of them using inert metal poles to destroy a bunker. I might be getting confused though and it was probably all CGI, but it was implied that it was coming back.
Last I heard, they were looking at it in 2003. I haven't seen anything else since then.
Are you talking satellite dropped kinetic weapons?
djones520 wrote: I had to look up what you were talking about MoD. I'm guessing it's still in research stage.
Yeah I think I saw it on that Future Weapons show on the discovery channel or something like that. I could have sworn their was test footage of them using inert metal poles to destroy a bunker. I might be getting confused though and it was probably all CGI, but it was implied that it was coming back.
I think you're talking about the "Rod of God" system.
You say that, but when I see comments like this, I do wonder...
Grey Templar wrote: Given what we know about NK technology, we can confidently say they won't be launching nukes any farther than South Korea. And maybe Japan if they get really lucky.
By the time NK has a reliable ICBM that can threaten beyond their tiny corner of the world, we'll have the technology to blow it up on the launch pad(if we don't already)
North Korea is so far behind the US technologically they are not a major threat in and of themselves.
The dangerous part is that they are a cornered animal who has nukes, albeit primitive ones. They are more likely to smuggle a device somewhere in a shipping container than send one via missile. So they're more along the lines of a big terror threat. Plus they're threatening South Korea constantly.
At worst, South Korea gets bombarded with Artillery and a couple Nukes then North Korea gets turned into a real life Fallout3 map. Which would really suck but its not going to cause WW3.
Iron_Captain wrote: I don't hope you mean war? The US was unable to win a war against North Korea in the 50's, and as long as China supports North Korea, there is nothing that can be done by the West.
Hostile actions by the West would likely draw China into the conflict and China is likely to draw it's ally Russia into the conflict. Hello World War III.
Are you posting from 1962? The state of world politics has changed a lot. Russia and China are not close, and are rivals in most things. Chinese policy towards North Korea is very similar to the West - 'we'd rather it didn't make a great big mess right now'. The days of the Communist nations all covering for each other is decades out of date.
I would also like to note that is report is not very reliable. It is heavily biased and only shows one side of the issue. It also relies on rumours and biased witnesses rather than solid evidence and indpendent research.
While it is without doubt that Korea is doing very bad things that would make Stalin blush; it should still be noted that propaganda is everywhere, especially in this report.
"Well yes they do awful things but we shouldn't just believe the report saying they do awful things" isn't really anything.
Jebus...all the tunnels they dug under the DMZ...they can wait till the harvest of rice is done and come pouring out like Drows and make off with all the rice and women....
Pacific wrote: I met a North Korean during my time in the country, she had swum to freedom over the border after teaching herself to swim. She left behind elderly parents but no other family, they had wanted the best for her and encouraged her to go. Incredibly strong character and certainly not a dumbo, although one has to only look at how the government manipulates the un-educated in the developed world (let alone in places such as NK) to see how its possible to easily direct people so that they solemnly act against their own best interests.
I've not met anyone who's escaped the country, but I've read a lot from people who did so, and spoken to a few people who spent some time there. I think the question of what people believe is best answered with a line I once heard about whether people really believed all the crazy stuff about Scientology - (paraphrasing) "you don't believe it, but you've got so much personally and emotionally at stake you just accept it'.
And in getting people to act against their own interests - the trick is to understand that attempting resistance is acting against one's own best interest. The contribution an individual might make to the overall resistance is very small, but the personal risk for themselves and their loved ones is great - being part of a resistance is a very brave thing, far braver that most people will ever be.
You don't actually need to keep the people fooled to keep a totalitarian government in place, you just need the risk of resistance to be high enough that they're more willing to just go along, and maybe that means accepting some nonsense, or more likely just not thinking about it.
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Frazzled wrote: Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.
You can say one thing is like another, without having been in existance when those things were around. For instance, people on this forum are notorious for saying something is very much the Nazis or Hitler, despite most of them not having been before 1945.
Doing so is not non-sensical as much as it is a basic part of historical understanding.
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whembly wrote: It's absolutely laughable to state that "Cuban healthcare" is better than the US.
Also, any stats that comes out of Cuba are vetted by the government and are not independently verified.
Actually, WHO does its own research. And the findings are interesting, as Cuba does do better in some areas, they have a greater ratio of doctors to people, and the percentage of the population covered with a basic standard of care is higher - very few are unable to access a doctor or receive standard treatments. This doesn't mean their system is 'better', because the US does a lot better in a lot of areas... establishing that it is the idea of 'better' which is really the problem.
As to North Korea and food, it honestly doesn't surprise me that they do better than India. Thing is, India's problem with food is entirely with distribution - it's a country undergoing modernisation and that means that a lot of traditional means of ensuring everyone gets fed are in decline, but the overall standard of living isn't yet high enough to overcome that.
The issue in North Korea, on the other hand, is that food is basically the only they have to export, so they export a lot of it just to get the funds needed to buy any kind of material products from the rest of the world. Which is okay most years, but it's a still a low-tech agricultural sector and that means the crops will fail every so often. And then, because North Korea has no built up surplus because it was all exported, and nothing else to sell to access food, the North Koreans either starve, or receive food aid from the rest of us.
Putting something into space isn't really a big deal anymore, it isn't the 60s.
Yep. A handful of countries have built up industries launching satellites in to space, for other countries who want satellites up there it's much, much cheaper to simply book a flight than build their own industry from scratch.
Putting something into space isn't really a big deal anymore, it isn't the 60s.
Yep. A handful of countries have built up industries launching satellites in to space, for other countries who want satellites up there it's much, much cheaper to simply book a flight than build their own industry from scratch.
Which means that it's rather interesting that SouthKoreadidn't just book a flight.
There are quite a few countries with a worse diet that NK going by that report, including india. The data tables are at the bottom (page 122).
I've seen that before...
Again, dash a healthy splash of salt, especially when dealing with NK. They don't just let anybody, much less a UN representative, to show up and start taking in data.
But, then again, asian food are generally "healthier" so I'm not totally discounting that.
The same should be applied to all rumours of famine in North Korea.
Really, as soon as anyone claims something about North Korea, a truckload of salt should be applied.
No one outside the NK government knows what is actually going on there. No one is allowed to take a look in North Korea without government supervision, so everything about North Korea is based on rumours rather than fact.
The situation in North Korea probably is pretty bad, otherwise they wouldn't be so extremely secretive, but that is pretty much all we can say. Everything else is just rumours and propaganda.
As long as we do not have any solid information on North Korea, any discussion about it is rather pointless.
How is that interesting? At one time they were happy to use launch capabilities of another country, and then they changed their mind and decided to develop their own space program.
That doesn't mean that previously they were incapable of putting their own satellites in space, as the 'North Korea did it first' line of argument assumes. It simply wasn't an industry they wanted to pursue at the time, which made sense given the massive advances in consumer manufacturing that the country was experiencing. Now they've reached the end of that line, and are finding other countries with lower base rates of pay are competing for basic industry, and so they are shifting in to high end industry, just as other developed countries have done before them.
I had a chat with an engineer about that very subject actually. He said that in the past the West had been the first with the development of new technologies and then reaped the benefits of those with their industries. S. Korea is putting hundreds of millions into subsidising their robotics and also satellite capability; when the new breakthroughs in technology and new industries/markets become apparent, they want to be at the forefront of it.
