We all know 40k least GW goes under has a decent shot of being around in 2035. Warmachine/Hordes and Privateer Press seem to be a lock as well.
Other games like Battletech survived since the 80s through various companies. Other games like Battlefleet Gothic died, and looks like LotR/The Hobbit will die too. The Mongoose games like Babylon 5 always seem to die as that company seems to always do badly.
With so many miniature games popping up, which games do you think will survive the TEST of time? Be around for your kids to play with your toys. No one wants to build up a collection of armies and have them become unsupported and dropped in 5 years.
-Kings of War
-Halo Wars
-Firestorm Armada
-Robotech
-Dyspotian Wars
-Maulifax
-Flames of War
-Bolt Action
-DUST
-AT-43
-X-Wing
-Dropzone Commander
-Infinity
-Star Wars Armada
-Star Trek attack wing
-Age of Sigmar
I think all the licensed games like Star Wars/Star Trek/LotR will always die after the hype is gone because it is not their own IP. The success of 40k/Warmachine/Infinity is partly based on the company creating their own world and their own IP. Invest in licensed IP games at your own risk - they may not be around in 6 years.
Which games are good to invest in for the long run? Thoughts?
I agree infinity is probably going to stand the TEST OF TIME.
It seems 40k, Warmachine/Hordes, and Infinity are the big three excluding niche oddities like Battletech, Star Fleet Battles, and relics from the 80s/90s.
By 20 years I meant the game will still be going 20 years from today so in 2035.
As for age of sigmar, BOLS gave it a thumbs up and said sales are going strong 1 month in. Who knows?
DorianGray wrote: By 20 years I meant the game will still be going 20 years from today so in 2035.
This is impossible to predict. The reason GW is still around is they got lucky on a license and rode that gravy train into the ground. It's over and cracks are showing. I doubt that is going to come up again for anyone else.
DorianGray wrote: As for age of sigmar, BOLS gave it a thumbs up and said sales are going strong 1 month in. Who knows?
I'm sure the same could have been said for Lord of the Rings, or even a lot of specialist games. 1 month is nothing. Lord of the Rings had significant legs and still died.
Retailers are reporting way above average/expected Age of Sigmar sales. GW has also reported increased 40k sales. Generally speaking the only people who think AoS is going to fail are those that feel GW gave them the shaft by discontinuing WHFB, never mind that for the most part these are the same people that didnt buy WHFB products or play WHFB games back when it was still WHFB.
In any case, Id put my money on Warmahordes, Flames of War and Bolt Action. X-Wing and Armada have a good chance as well assuming Disney keeps working its magic with the IP. Infinity and Malifaux could go either way, they are growing in popularity but Im not sure they have the right stuff to have that kind of longetivity. The rest of it Id say are all just a flash in the pan, but a lot of it depends on what the businesses behind them do with their products.
As for 'around' or 'supported', I think games such De Bellis Antiquitatis will still be around, it's been around 25 years already, but I doubt it will be 'supported' in the sense of WRG making new materials and editions. DBA is essentially finished and complete in 3rd edition. From now on, WRG only need to reprint it when copies run out, or even just list it on a print on demand service.
10 years ago people would have said that WHFB would be around in 10 years time. Of course it's already dead, because GW haven't updated the army books and the models are going OOP.
The support materials are out of date making the game difficult to play even if you keep your rules and what figures you have.
chaos0xomega wrote: Retailers are reporting way above average/expected Age of Sigmar sales. GW has also reported increased 40k sales. Generally speaking the only people who think AoS is going to fail are those that feel GW gave them the shaft by discontinuing WHFB, never mind that for the most part these are the same people that didnt buy WHFB products or play WHFB games back when it was still WHFB.
Maybe it's just in the UK, but people are really not buying AoS.
Also, WHFB made up 15% of GW's yearly revenue. I think they just want to die as a company or something.
DorianGray wrote: By 20 years I meant the game will still be going 20 years from today so in 2035.
This is impossible to predict. The reason GW is still around is they got lucky on a license and rode that gravy train into the ground. It's over and cracks are showing. I doubt that is going to come up again for anyone else.
DorianGray wrote: As for age of sigmar, BOLS gave it a thumbs up and said sales are going strong 1 month in. Who knows?
I'm sure the same could have been said for Lord of the Rings, or even a lot of specialist games. 1 month is nothing. Lord of the Rings had significant legs and still died.
Specialist games never had long term support how do you expect it to last?
Lotr had promise but as I was told the rules new line insist upon became extremely difficult to keep. GW made masses from the part work and the advertising from that. But after the duration was done it was dropped. Gw thought they could keep the sales up they simply couldn't.
They neglected their first product and have bought out AoS to replace and fine primary sales are fine but it's New Toy Syndrome.
I can't honestly see it lasting, not because of how stupid it is but because they have made a fair few of the fantasy players out there angry.
Maybe you guys at GW had done what people wanted like I dunno release new Brets or Chaos Dwarfs or Cathay or expand the world via dogs of war or Mordhiem 2.0 but no it's baby out with the bathwater time.
So AoS won't last it just doesn't have the durability.
chaos0xomega wrote: Retailers are reporting way above average/expected Age of Sigmar sales. GW has also reported increased 40k sales. Generally speaking the only people who think AoS is going to fail are those that feel GW gave them the shaft by discontinuing WHFB, never mind that for the most part these are the same people that didnt buy WHFB products or play WHFB games back when it was still WHFB.
Maybe it's just in the UK, but people are really not buying AoS.
Also, WHFB made up 15% of GW's yearly revenue. I think they just want to die as a company or something.
]
What if I told you that revenue and profit are two different things, and its possible to draw revenue from something while having a negative profit (that is to say, losing money) from it?
If you have the rules, and they work, and if you have a collection of miniatures that's at least large enough to support two sides in a game, why does a ruleset need to stand the test of time? You can pull it out whenever you like, say to someone, "Want to have a game?", and then play.
Maybe fantasy would have made a profit of they had given people what they wanted. Instead of what Kirby thinks they want . Maybe just maybe this abomination wouldn't have happened. GW becoming public was the worst thing to happen to its games.
I can see Halo having a chance. Microsoft seem happy about churrning a new game out every 2 years. Plus a TV series being worked on. I can easily see people still being interested in 20 years.
Star wars stuff has a good chance as its star wars.
I hope Flames of war is still about as its one of my favorate games and has been my biggest spending since AoS came out.
They are moving to plastics which will take time and they still have a lot of the early war stuff to redo plus things like Korea and expanding in WW1
What if I told you that revenue and profit are two different things, and its possible to draw revenue from something while having a negative profit (that is to say, losing money) from it?
What if I told you that, according to GW, NONE of their lines are making profit?
What if I told you that mismanagement is the cause of GW's problems and not Warhammer Fantasy?
What if I told you that revenue and profit are two different things, and its possible to draw revenue from something while having a negative profit (that is to say, losing money) from it?
What if I told you that, according to GW, NONE of their lines are making profit?
What if I told you that mismanagement is the cause of GW's problems and not Warhammer Fantasy?
Really a niche game... but it has been going for a long, long time.... (Older than D&D, let alone Warhammer....)
The Auld Grump - the best game of Star Fleet Battles that I ever played had both the Federation and the Klingons winning - each of their victory conditions had nothing to do with the other's....
What if I told you that revenue and profit are two different things, and its possible to draw revenue from something while having a negative profit (that is to say, losing money) from it?
What if I told you that, according to GW, NONE of their lines are making profit?
What if I told you that mismanagement is the cause of GW's problems and not Warhammer Fantasy?
This guy gets it.
Step 1. Do no market research.
Step 2. Never admit to making a mistake.
Step 3. Drop the game instead of repairing the problems.....
This question depends heavily on what we mean by "be around."
I'd give the following criteria:
1) the game exists in the same broad game universe
2) rules and models are available for sale, even if not from the same manufacturers
3) The game is distributed through retail channels beyond the owners webstore.
Very few games have lasted 20 years by that definition. WFB did, 40k did. Epic and Bloodbowl very technically did, I think. WM/H, FoW, and Infinity are over halfway there.
For the future? I think the best odds have to be with 40k and WM/H. I feel okay eliminating nearly all licensed properties, as when they run out of stuff from the universe, they tend to collapse. (Star Fleet Battles has the world's most bizarre license, and is essentially a different universe than Star Trek). I'd also eliminate most games that are historical, or can rely on a really broad range of models, which includes Bolt Action, Kings of War, etc. They've got a decent chance of carving out some space if they really develop their own look, but if any army can switch rulesets easily, people will go to whatever rules are good/popular.
Kilkrazy wrote: GW declaread a significant profit in their last annual report. At least some of their lines are profitable.
They dropped in revenue and barely gained anything from cash generation.
Keep in mind this annual report is pre-AoS, but that's pretty bad for a business. It's likely that it's just restructuring (ie they have notably less staff because less stores) and less actually growing their market. Not a bad thing for a business, but definitely not sustainable.
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TheAuldGrump wrote: Step 1. Do no market research.
Step 2. Never admit to making a mistake.
Step 3. Drop the game instead of repairing the problems.....
Locally... AoS is not doing well, at all, at all.
Step 1. Brag about not doing market research.
Step 2. Blame your customers for not wanting what you're giving them.
Step 3. Burn it all down.
That game didn't just lose momentum... it hit a brick wall. I've never seen a game with so much potential implode so fast. It had a huge, gorgeous model range!
That game didn't just lose momentum... it hit a brick wall. I've never seen a game with so much potential implode so fast. It had a huge, gorgeous model range!
Liar! Don't believe this slander! I just got my 4th Rackham tattoo! It is the best game ever!
What if I told you that revenue and profit are two different things, and its possible to draw revenue from something while having a negative profit (that is to say, losing money) from it?
What if I told you that, according to GW, NONE of their lines are making profit?
I would tell you to reread the past few financial reports they have released. They are certainly turning a profit on 40k even if total revenues are down.
I'd say very few games around now will survive another 20 years, (although it really depends on how you define survive)
pretty much anything dependant on a licence will go because either the property will dwindle so it no longer makes sense to pay the licence fee, or the property will change hands, get rebooted etc resulting in the licence going to somebody else who will put out their own game (eg the original starwars RPG is not the same as todays starwars RPG)
I think the historical rule sets are probably not safe simply because the setting can be re-used by anybody, and so can the minis. As gaming tastes change a new rule set or sets is likely to pop up and take hold, poaching players and minis
I also think that with more choice than ever available marginal games have less chance of simply hanging on/hanging around with lots of alternatives coming out all the time. Stores don't have space to keep carrying them when they start to falter
Depending on how they are set up private companies can help protect a game if the owner(s) believe in it they can keep it going through tough times, but it's a double edged sword and when an owner retires/dies (which is going to happen in some of the current 'name' systems) a business can crumble as the remaining partners have to find cash to buy out there heirs (depending on how the company is set up)
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote: I'd say very few games around now will survive another 20 years, (although it really depends on how you define survive)
GW has survived for 20 years. I think GW or at least the game will survive another 20 years and possibly Warmachine. Those two games are safe because they are the most popular. These two games are not licensed it is their own IP.
I'm sure it's fun game for those who play it, but I don't think it has the overall popularity or enough appeal to stick around for the long haul. I could be wrong, it's just that in my travels here in the US, which are by no means limited, I have never had this game come up in conversation or even seen this product on store shelves.
EDIT:
I see now that the game in the list is "Robotech" I actually meant Battletech. I used play Battletech, I think it's awesome, It's certainly stood the test of time, but never had a large following.
I've got a bunch of AT-43 stuff I got at fire sale prices after the company went bust and retailers were trying to get rid of the stock. I got large Cogs and Golem (?) armies, which are usable generally in SF games, plus a few White Star which are good generic human future soldiers.
They are nice models, playable straight out of the box (pre-paints, of course.)
The terrain bits are a nice bonus.
The rules are pretty good, about what 40K ought to be if Sigmarinized, though they need to add more H2H and special rules.
None of them!
Seriously.
Games Workshop just happened to be in the right place at the right time, the rest are still on the fringes and to be honest they have been around for a while but none have come close to market domination. Five years from now a lot of that list will be gone and no doubt replaced by new 'gods' for a while. Some will get the occasional boost like Star Wars because of the films but none will rise above the fringe they already occupy.
I give 40k, as a wargame(i'm not talking about GW here)10 years at the most before it is forgotten. As for being around in 2035, If I'm proved wrong feel free to dig me up and say "I told you so!"
Just don't expect a reply...
I don't think Flames of War will make it for another 10 years, or perhaps even 5, let alone 20.
I don't think they can go for another round around of Version 4 with all new books, even though Version 3 has some serious flaws at the moment.
And while they're trying to expand, FoW's weakness as a game when having anything to deal with anything outside of tanks is telling, especially when they tried turning Vietnam into a tank game, and decided that the best place to start WWI was the era when tanks were available. Now they're trying to make a Cold War Gone Hot game, but we'll see how successful they can be with that at a 15mm company level scale, when that era is probably best played at either small skirmishs or big, battalion level games.
Infinity, but it will only be 2-3 of the months 6-8 releases. Becaus, the rest of the spots will be for Warcrow as they bring that line back and make a fantasy skirmish form it .
oni wrote: EDIT:
I see now that the game in the list is "Robotech" I actually meant Battletech. I used play Battletech, I think it's awesome, It's certainly stood the test of time, but never had a large following.
Say what?
Battletech was huge in the 80's and mid-late 90's. The game spawned video games, an animated cartoon and a line of toys and action figures.
To say that the game never had a large following is incorrect.
oni wrote: EDIT:
I see now that the game in the list is "Robotech" I actually meant Battletech. I used play Battletech, I think it's awesome, It's certainly stood the test of time, but never had a large following.
Say what?
Battletech was huge in the 80's and mid-late 90's. The game spawned video games, an animated cartoon and a line of toys and action figures.
To say that the game never had a large following is incorrect.
Yes indeed, even I had heard of it as a child in the pestilent north east of England, and I hadn't heard of much.
D&D, Ninja Turtles, Battletech.
Oh yeah, and obviously fags, Red Stripe lager, chips, and heroin.
In 20 years time it is extremely difficult to make any logical predictions, the time frame is too vast and the current state of social and technological changes are too fast to make any solid predictions.
One is almost certain, companies that listen to their customers, deliver what they want (which is different from what the vocals want) and keep pace with technology will be around.
The games o the other hand will be altered, there are many reasons why, but if you want a first hand example, 40k is not an almost 30 year continuous saga, it is a continuous alteration and re-imagining of the core experience which has nothing to do with its first introduction to the world, one could say that when you look 1st and 7th together, they are two entirely different games in almost every respect.
The question then will become will the games of the companies that will still be around feel the same as they do now despite their evolution?
I think Magic will still be strong in 20 years; I think predicting more than 5 years ahead for any miniature game, though, is impossible. Even Malifaux, which I think is the best and I love it, has no guarantee to last that long.
PsychoticStorm wrote: In 20 years time it is extremely difficult to make any logical predictions, the time frame is too vast and the current state of social and technological changes are too fast to make any solid predictions.
This. Remember, the miniature gaming scene may be completely different. 3D printers, Microsoft Hololenses, and stuff we can't even imagine will probably make the environment where kids scoff at the old codgers playing physical figures that they (gasp!) painted.
At a minimum, 3D printing will probably disrupt all the major miniature companies where sales of figures are their primary revenue generators. Even if there is some DRM equivalent that prevents people from distributing and copying 3D models for games freely, don't see historical companies like Warlord or Flames of War lasting. Can't copyright historical stuff.
The games who's rules remain fun, fresh, and balanced. As well as the companies that price their games competitively, and communicates with their communities.
leopard wrote: + lots for Star Fleet Battles, just wish I could find someone to play it against.
I feel you there, bro. I have a ton of the expansion modules for SFB, and I was working on teaching my younger brother to play (until he lost interest), but I don't know anyone else around who plays.
Back on topic, I have to wonder if miniatures games will even exist at all in 20 years. It seems kids these days only want to play video games. I like video games, too, but I also enjoy playing a game where thinking is more important than dexterity or hand-eye coordination. Miniatures games are already a niche hobby, and I don't see that changing. The only way that may change is if someone introduces a "cool" miniatures game (as in the miniatures equivalent to Magic or Pokemon cards), something that ends up being more mainstream and can be bought at regular stores like Wal-Mart or Target.
Not sure about current games, in 20 years we may all be in VR or playing with stones like our ancestors,
Those with big franchises (Disney star wars) behind them have a chance, like X-wing or well run companies, like PP, warlord games and corvus belli i see a long future, some companies i don't know.
That game didn't just lose momentum... it hit a brick wall. I've never seen a game with so much potential implode so fast. It had a huge, gorgeous model range!
The company made some rather silly decisions.... Oh Snake man with Umbrella why do you haunt me.....I'm sorry I never got you....
I can't see GW lasting 20 years sorry not with who's there now. It needs radical upper management changes to survive and it won't because it's a certain persons cash cow.
I remember I think it was 2003? GW went to wall Mart with the idea of selling there products through them.
You know they wanted an entire isle? Just for themselves? And they wanted Wall Mart to adhere to their price structures.
Needless to say the meeting ended with Wall Mart laughing them out of it.
Jehan-reznor wrote: Not sure about current games, in 20 years we may all be in VR or playing with stones like our ancestors,
Those with big franchises (Disney star wars) behind them have a chance, like X-wing or well run companies, like PP, warlord games and corvus belli i see a long future, some companies i don't know.
Think I agree with this.
The strong franchises will survive in one form or another, because they will live regardless of bad support or gakky games. Even if FFG suddenly stopped releasing Star Wars stuff for 10 years, another company could pick it up at that point and do something with it. People are still hankering after the Aliens vs. Predator stuff, despite a decade of generally poor movies and the most hilariously bad customer relations on the part of Prodos, and that's entirely down to the strong popularity and evocative nature of the franchise.
You would like to think that companies that are conscientious, try and give the customer what they want and are generally interested in producing something regarded as quality within their craft will survive, although sadly that is not always the case. This is something that applies beyond wargaming.
Kings of War is a very strong contender, for one reason - entirely miniatures agnostic, doesn't matter what company you buy from, there will always be 28mm fantasy miniatures for sale.
DBM/Hordes of the Things has been going for ages as a result of simply being a rules-only thing where you can use any mini you own.
Anything that wizkids makes or pre-paints can be ruled out, they attract a different crowd to regular wargamers a lot of the time.
You should always get what you need for two players to play for any miniature game you really like to play, because guess what; it will probably be unsupported very, very soon.
PsychoticStorm wrote: In 20 years time it is extremely difficult to make any logical predictions, the time frame is too vast and the current state of social and technological changes are too fast to make any solid predictions.
This. Remember, the miniature gaming scene may be completely different. 3D printers, Microsoft Hololenses, and stuff we can't even imagine will probably make the environment where kids scoff at the old codgers playing physical figures that they (gasp!) painted.
At a minimum, 3D printing will probably disrupt all the major miniature companies where sales of figures are their primary revenue generators. Even if there is some DRM equivalent that prevents people from distributing and copying 3D models for games freely, don't see historical companies like Warlord or Flames of War lasting. Can't copyright historical stuff.
Im still not convinced that 3D printers will disrupt the gaming industry all that much. Even if printers do reach that level of speed and detail accuracy (most developments so far are focused on accuracy at the expense of speed mind you), and the cost of the printing material comes down, there are still numerous developments underway within the manufacturing industry that will further drop the price of plastic injection molding. Its also worth remembering that the production cost of a plastic injection molded model (exclusive of the cost of mold tooling, as you cannot factor that cost in without knowing your total volume of output) is many orders of magnitude less than the cost of a 3d printed product. You're talking a few seconds and some pocket change in time & materials cost to make a box of space marines, whereas (currently) to print that box of marines to the same level of detail you would be talking a hundred dollars or more in materials costs and hours of time. The big balancing factor (right now) that gives the perception of a 3D printer one day challenging more conventional methods is that those molds currently cost thousands of dollars (which wouldnt be as big an issue if more people purchased them), but in the next 20 years you can expect the majority of that cost to disappear once some of the new die-making materials and processes hit the market (ironically, some of that technology has been enabled via 3D printing). The end result is that conventional manufacturers who don't want to go digital can drop prices while retaining margins and thus make it not worthwile to print (basically, if its more expensive to print it yourself, you have no incentive not to buy a boxed product, unless you're doing it for the sheer novelty of it).
The one area, however, that I think 3D printing *will* change the industry, is that it will drop the barrier of entry for new indy developers to get their product out there, as they wont have to invest in some of the sunk costs associated with manufacturing, storing, and transporting their own physical goods if they can sell print licenses to customers instead. However, as they grow these developers will have strong incentive to pursue manufacturing for their product lines as the profit margins on industrially produced goods will be much much higher than the profit margins on license sales (because remember, if you're selling a license to print a model, your customer still has to pay to produce it. GW couldn't charge you $50 (thats how much a 10 man unit of marines costs these days, right?) for a one time print license on a unit of marines if you then had to spend another $30 on materials to print that unit, otherwise they would price themselves out pretty quickly. Instead, they could charge you $20 for that print license, and you would pay the other $30 in materials to keep price parity, which doesn't sound too bad for them, until you realize GWs costs (exclusive of their ridiculous insistence of maintaining their own fleet of stores as sales portals) to produce, transport, and store that box of Space Marines is currently between $5 and $10, meaning that they would actually be losing money if they pursued that avenue.
Aren't 3D printers large and costs tens to hundreds of thousands of pounds?
All that to stick it to GW and spend a ton of time printing your own space marines? Just buy a box from GW.
Also a big part of the value in GW is their IP and the fluff/world they created. That's the only reason I play 40k. You can't 3D print that away. They can still survive on rulebooks, novels, and gaming supplies. Also all the licensing fees from video games and boardgames.
I think Warmachine/40k for sure. Kings of War? Aren't they only a few years old? Do they even have any tournaments at conventions like Adepticon?
DorianGray wrote: I mean supported. New editions new units books etc
Whens the next edition of chess out? I'm not buying a new copy until its revised.
And what about the Codex:White Pieces. Sheesh, is that over-powered. Perhaps they will finally released a new Codex: Black Pieces, which has not been updated for centuries. It can include some new piece, one that occupies 4 squares, and is twice the height of the queen. Four whole squares! That'll balance things...
20 years is far too long a time range given the rapid changes we are seeing. For all we know, physical miniatures will be gone, and we'll use holograms.
Remember we are talking 20 years from now. So costs will be on a very different level from what they are at now. I remember less than 20 years ago CD burners costing thousands, now they are an obsolete technology and the next generation (technically two generations) of burners for Bluerays are only $50 - 60US. Yes, printers are slow now, but there will likely be improvements in speed over the next 20 years. Plus I don't necessarily see everyone with a printer in a home, but instead more akin to placing an order with a "print shop" and either have the order mailed out or picked up. My local UPS store already has a coupe 3D printers and have them print the stuff and pick it up there. With most games just needing 10 - 20 figs, placing an order with a shop and picking it up the next day doesn't seem that far fetched. Yes resin is expensive for a lot of these printers, but remember, these are proprietary resins and I know a couple of them have patents on the formulas. Those patents will have expired by then driving the cost down and will be the same costs as most bulk resins. The resin I use for casting is $45US per 1/2 gallon and I can tell you that makes A LOT.
While GW would charge $50US for 10 marines, a lot of other companies wouldn't. The costs would be far lower, especially when they no longer have any production costs past sculpting. You would probably see $10US for 10 figs, but that is only for the print file. The printing costs would be pushed on the consumer. There you would even see cost differences as some people would pay more for slower high quality prints while others would pay for a fast, quick low resolution prints. The fast print armies would become the equivalent of the quick assembled and glued unpainted armies we see today. Complete with mold lines, glue splots, and sprue tabs.
But I don't disagree with you notion that it will allow faster entry into the market for companies. Your really seeing that today with the ease to bring sculpts to reality and production. Plus I agree that you will see sooner improved manufacturing techniques due to 3D printing. 3D printed molds for plastic extrusions are already happening. While the quality is poor now, I can only see it getting better. I only think at a certain point, it will become more affordable to have the consumer produce the figures locally instead of at a factory for storage and distribution.
I don't think X-wing will be around for another 5 years let alone 20. There are only so many decent Starfighters in the Galactic Civil War/Immediate Post Galactic Civil War EU and FF is already scraping the bottom of the barrel with this new wave.
Unless they do Clone Wars, Old Republic and 25 ABY out. Then I could see them going until 2025.
TheCustomLime wrote: I don't think X-wing will be around for another 5 years let alone 20. There are only so many decent Starfighters in the Galactic Civil War/Immediate Post Galactic Civil War EU and FF is already scraping the bottom of the barrel with this new wave.
Unless they do Clone Wars, Old Republic and 25 ABY out. Then I could see them going until 2025.
I hated the prequels, but I love the ship designs. If X-Wing brings in Clone Wars (Which I heard they can't) then it would jump higher up in my game priority.
X-Wing seems to be cooling off a lot around here. Unless the new movies bring a lot to the table, they seem to be really stretching to come up with stuff for 'waves' now. I wonder about Armada too, given that it has even less to work with.
Games that have a limited use of the IP like star wars will always fade out much faster. The ability to keep things new and exciting goes away once its all been done. If its a companies own original IP that they can keep building and changing to keep the game fresh, those stand the test of time. Assuming they crap on the IP like AOS
Well, i am really unsure AoS will be around. WHFB had an unique setting - on one hand they had all the classic fantasy tropes (elves, dwarves, orks, humans,...) plus some unique armies (lizzardmen, skaven...) with an extensive background story for the immersive experience. AoS is some very very strange pseudo-fantasy-post-apocalypse stuff. You have to like the models to like the game, since it has no intrinsic appeal from the background as far as I am concerned. If I were to start a new system, I'd take almost any other setting - vikings, steampunk, classic high fantasy, whatever but what GW churned out. I have my doubts AoS will be popular. It might be around subsidized by 40k, but that aint likely.
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DorianGray wrote: Aren't 3D printers large and costs tens to hundreds of thousands of pounds?
They were - some years ago. You can get a pretty decent 3D desktop printer for around 300$ now. Not tabletop 28mm quality, but pretty close, good enough for vehicles at any rate. And you'll probably get tabletop quality for 100$ five years from now
DorianGray wrote: Aren't 3D printers large and costs tens to hundreds of thousands of pounds?
All that to stick it to GW and spend a ton of time printing your own space marines? Just buy a box from GW.
Also a big part of the value in GW is their IP and the fluff/world they created. That's the only reason I play 40k. You can't 3D print that away. They can still survive on rulebooks, novels, and gaming supplies. Also all the licensing fees from video games and boardgames.
I think Warmachine/40k for sure. Kings of War? Aren't they only a few years old? Do they even have any tournaments at conventions like Adepticon?
They are getting a lot cheaper and better all the time.
However the analogy has to be with 2D printers. Lots of people have them, but only enthusiasts use them to print out photos, and no-one uses them to print out novels because it is cheaper and more convenient to buy professionally printed books.
I agree that 3D printing will make it much quicker for small firms to prototype models and to print them on demand as a boutique business.
GW will probably be around because it's public and has shown to be profitable (albeit at low margins) so some private equity firm will snatch it up take it private and re-IPO it.
There is a ton of value in the 40k IP. It's like battletech except much better. It'll be around when our kids grow up.
DorianGray wrote: GW will probably be around because it's public and has shown to be profitable (albeit at low margins) so some private equity firm will snatch it up take it private and re-IPO it.
There is a ton of value in the 40k IP. It's like battletech except much better. It'll be around when our kids grow up.
War machine maybe. The rest highly doubtful.
So were a lot of other companies with more resources and market influence in their respective markets. It only takes one really bad decision or a few terrible quarters to bring a company down. Once the cash reserves are gone, poof.
As for games still around in 20 years, it's hard to say, I honestly think 40k will still be around, possibly WM/H, that's about it.
totalfailure wrote: X-Wing seems to be cooling off a lot around here. Unless the new movies bring a lot to the table, they seem to be really stretching to come up with stuff for 'waves' now. I wonder about Armada too, given that it has even less to work with.
I think Armada has a lot of problems that will doom it long before they dredge up obscure ship designs. In my opinion, the scale is too large and they are focusing too much on non-iconic ships. Why oh why didn't they put an ISD in the starter box along with some Nebulon-B Frigates/Corellian Corvettes. I understand that ISDs at that scale would've made the starter too costly but that brings me to my next point: The scale. The ships are too damned big for the game's own good. Super Star Destroyers are out of the question and the iconic ISD will probably be a "Apoc level" ship. A smaller scale would've allowed for larger fleet actions and for the big boys to get into the fight without making the game unwieldy.
Well considering the ISD is supposed to be out by the end of the year and from what we know not at all an "apoc" level ship, youd be wrong, though I do agree they should have gone smaller scale and put the ISD in the starter.
They're sticking to the same scale - those things are sort of twice the length of the VSD, so they still work at that scale - they're just rather large.
Totally agree on Armada. In theory its the game I've been waiting my entire life to play, yet the scale feels wrong - if they'd done the ships in X-Wing size then it would work. the current scale feels too big for really big ships and its a very clunky system.
the other problem is that the star wars universe feels more about starfighter battles not capital ship battles - the whole point of the west end games fluff was that there weren't many rebel ships, they were to try and avoid direct combat with the imperial fleet and that much of it was about single ships rocking up and fighting each other.
I think armada is a missed opportunity and whilst I dearly love X-wing, I think they've burned a lot of goodwill over the Raider and Wave 7 fiasco whereby they previewed it almost a year ahead of time but no release. People are getting tired of waiting - they need to fix their shipping woes and fast.
-Loki- wrote: Just a point - Infinity already has. It's 10 years old, 1st edition was released in 2005.
I know it doesn't reach your 20 years, but Warmachine is 12 years old and you didn't list it.
warmachine is already here to stay!
Personally I think infinity, kings of war, and x wing are definitely here to stay. Infinity has a lot of momentum in the past few years, even though its really old, its still fresh! Kings of war is going to replace WHFB, just watch and see. X-Wing has the backing of the star wars name, and is also really easy to pick up and teach a younger crowd.
None of them. Twenty years from now, all the listed games will have replaced by new games, new ways of playing. Might not even be tabletop minis but likely some electonic version (not quite a "video game", but the next evolution, perhaps holographics, (3d) print-n-play or magnetically manipulated silicates. The only people who will still be playing those games listed before will be the old farts (like me) and anyone they can cajole into playing.
Stormonu wrote: None of them. Twenty years from now, all the listed games will have replaced by new games, new ways of playing. Might not even be tabletop minis but likely some electonic version (not quite a "video game", but the next evolution, perhaps holographics, (3d) print-n-play or magnetically manipulated silicates. The only people who will still be playing those games listed before will be the old farts (like me) and anyone they can cajole into playing.
I've read a lot of bobbins written here , but this is grade A bobbins. None of them? Seriously?! Replaced by "the next evolution". I hardly think so. Sure things are different from when I first started gaming but wildly different? People are involved in this hobby because they get to build stuff and play games with toy soldiers, there are already electronic alternatives which exist happily alongside model gaming without destroying it. Electronic media will never replace books entirely, electronic games will never replace physical games entirely. As for "(3d) print-n-play or magnetically manipulated silicates.", those are just different ways of geting your models on the table/material theyre made out of, its not a game changer by any means. Someone will still have to produce them, there were still be games to play with them.
Very few mentions of Malifaux in this thread. It's huge in some areas and I've noticed several groups double in size since Warhammer Fantasy bit the dust.
Wyrd is a solid company that's really grown, has an amazing IP, they have fingers on the pulse of the market because they actually get input from the players (everything goes through private, then public testing), and the kits are gorgeous (and becoming much easier to assemble).
Steampunk/Gothic Horror/Wild West/Zombie Hookers/Whatever skirmish game? Try Malifaux.
Like the setting but don't want to collect? More into RPG's? Play Through the Breach.
Want to know more about Earth in this game's universe? The Other Side is being detailed soon.
Want some light, goofier games? Evil Baby Orphanage and Puppet Wars.
Want a solid co-op game? Darkness Comes Rattling (I was absolutely blown away by this at Gencon)
The 2 FLGS's I've played at (New York and California) have started to drop GW and Privateer minis because people are getting pulled into Wyrd's games and not going back.
Malifaux fluff seems really odd and bizarre more gothic horror than steampunk. War machine is steampunk.
The fluff and the bizarre models just turned me off from that game. Who wants to play with a killer giant teddy bear with giant teeth (Teddy) or an undead reporter (Molly).
Apparently Malifaux is gaining popularity with woman and at Adepticon it was the only game with more than one or two women in it.
Malifaux setting really hits the spot for me to the point where it was taking over Infinity as well, but it's been really hard to get my group into it. Out of the 5 of us, only my brother and I play it, with token interest from the others.
Lately I've torn myself away from Malifaux to get back into Infinity for a while in the hope that soon another of the group decides to pick up the game. I'm at the point where I'm willing to buy the 2 player set and just give the Guild to the friend that's interested in the faction if it gets him into the game.
Though, our group is fairly stubborn. Once we find a game we like, we don't branch out much. And the group mostly likes Infinity.
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DorianGray wrote: The fluff and the bizarre models just turned me off from that game. Who wants to play with a killer giant teddy bear with giant teeth (Teddy) or an undead reporter (Molly).
That's one of the best parts of Malifaux. It doesn't take itself seriously if you don't want it to. Want serious? There's Guild and Arcanists. Want gothic horror? There's Ressurectionists and Neverborn. Want outright silly? Gremlins are right there.
I can see why some wouldn't enjoy it, but it's really a unique game setting.
I think X Wing and Armada will stay strong at least in the mid term (5 years or so) simply because the new movies are on their way and FFG seems to be ready to capitalise on that.
jonolikespie wrote: I think X Wing and Armada will stay strong at least in the mid term (5 years or so) simply because the new movies are on their way and FFG seems to be ready to capitalise on that.
As long as Disney keeps putting out star wars movies and cartoons FFG will be in great shape. Not sure if x wing or any other game will be around in 20 years that's a long time from now, so I'm going to enjoy these great games now and not worry what's going to be around in 20 years. Hopefully when I'm 60 I will still enjoy flying my x wing around making pew pew noises with my buddies who will all be in there 60's with me.
I'm laughing a little bit thinking about 40k being in its 17th edition and still being a badly written rule set at that time.
I'm laughing a little bit thinking about 40k being in its 17th edition and still being a badly written rule set at that time.
Who knows, the old guard will be retired by then. I can't see Kirby and JJ running the show when they're in their 90s. Maybe this is just blind optimism though.
I'm laughing a little bit thinking about 40k being in its 17th edition and still being a badly written rule set at that time.
Who knows, the old guard will be retired by then. I can't see Kirby and JJ running the show when they're in their 90s. Maybe this is just blind optimism though.
I think it's blind optimism thinking 17th ed will be that long away. I'd say it's closer to 10 years away if things keep going the way they are
I'm laughing a little bit thinking about 40k being in its 17th edition and still being a badly written rule set at that time.
Who knows, the old guard will be retired by then. I can't see Kirby and JJ running the show when they're in their 90s. Maybe this is just blind optimism though.
Don't see either one of those guys being around but just the thought of GW not getting it right in 20 years just makes me chuckle. Can't imagine the amount of bloat that will be in 40k in 20 years if they don't do something different from their current strategy.
Hopefully GW will be around in 20 years and I can tell the kids playing it back in my day how messed up the game was and about the old guard running the company back then. How back in my day I had to walk to the game store 20 miles, up hill both ways,just to get a game in. How if I would of kept my complete set of beta magic cards I would have been a millionaire. The list goes on and on..
DorianGray wrote: Malifaux fluff seems really odd and bizarre more gothic horror than steampunk. War machine is steampunk.
The fluff and the bizarre models just turned me off from that game. Who wants to play with a killer giant teddy bear with giant teeth (Teddy) or an undead reporter (Molly).
Apparently Malifaux is gaining popularity with woman and at Adepticon it was the only game with more than one or two women in it.
Technically speaking, Warmachine isn't steampunk.
Steampunk is partially defined by Victorian asthetics and culture. Warmachine has neither.
It's just fantasy going through an industrial revolution.
Technically speaking, Warmachine isn't steampunk.
Steampunk is partially defined by Victorian asthetics and culture. Warmachine has neither.
It's just fantasy going through an industrial revolution.
I'm not saying you're wrong... but if you want to call a world of high fantasy with rapid industrialization, magic blending with technology, tesla coils and goggles, and steampowered impossible tech "not steampunk," you're going to get pushback.
It's not alternative history steampunk, and like any genre steampunk has been stretched to the breaking point, but I think it's safe to say that Warmachine, at least initially, took a profound influence from Steampunk. (Vintner escaped after the Lions Coup in a hot air balloon! )
I'm laughing a little bit thinking about 40k being in its 17th edition and still being a badly written rule set at that time.
Who knows, the old guard will be retired by then. I can't see Kirby and JJ running the show when they're in their 90s. Maybe this is just blind optimism though.
Don't see either one of those guys being around but just the thought of GW not getting it right in 20 years just makes me chuckle. Can't imagine the amount of bloat that will be in 40k in 20 years if they don't do something different from their current strategy.
Hopefully GW will be around in 20 years and I can tell the kids playing it back in my day how messed up the game was and about the old guard running the company back then. How back in my day I had to walk to the game store 20 miles, up hill both ways,just to get a game in. How if I would of kept my complete set of beta magic cards I would have been a millionaire. The list goes on and on..
I keep hoping that they'll accidentally hire someone who understands game mechanics and can write him/herself out of a paper bag. I know there are people who like the "fluff" and black library books but I cringe when I read them; it's like pulp fiction from the 30's gone wrong.
Kilkrazy wrote: No-one plays Monopoly any more. It hasn't been updated since 1935.
Not to mention chess.
Monopoly has had numerous new editions over the just last 10-15 years, and that's NOT just the branded versions (ie, Star Wars Monopoly, Marvel Monopoly, LotR Monopoly, etc), but new rules, ways to play, etc. Heck, they release a new branded version every other month it seems.
Heck, chess is also has countless different versions (granted, the rules are the same, but new versions of chess pieces = new models if you are going for accurate comparisons).
To be perfectly honest, I'll be somewhat shocked if tabletop miniature games are still as prominent 20 years from now, simply because technology will likely dramatically alter the industry. In another 10 years, 3-D scanning and printing may be cheap enough and advanced enough to potentially hurt miniature makers that are too slow, stubborn, or don't have the resources to adapt (which pretty much describes most of the top miniature games companies). I'd imagine that the only companies to survive are those that have A) kept their business model flexible enough to embrace or at least keep ahead of new technology (having a hard time thinking of any that truly fit that bill), or are diverse enough for it not to have as big of an impact (FFG comes to mind here).
In 15-20 years, we could see technology advances that may kill the industry completely, such as some form of 3-D hologram projection system that eliminates the need for physical pieces and terrain, just set up projectors on a table and move the holographic pieces using futuristic sensor gloves, who knows! Then again, as possible with any niche market, 20 years from now, we may still be playing the same games in the same way, still complaining about GW's prices and decisions, etc. After all, printed paper publication was supposed to have died about 10 years ago, and while technology has taken a bite out of it, it will be a long time before its truly dead (if ever).
DorianGray wrote: Maulifaux doesn't take itself seriously so its not a serious game.
It's obviously something you don't like, but this statement is utter rubbish.
Like most non historical games, it's based in a fantasy setting. A portal to abother dimension, with things based on nightmares, is no more silly that other backstory.
It's hugely popular in the UK, with a large tournament scene, and they are about to drop a campaign system. And they also have announced a slightly larger model count skirmish game ala WM is coming. My WM stuff is already on sale on eBay because of this.
Within 20 years Citadel will have been purchased by Disney and all GW IP will be folded into the Star Wars brand. There will be no miniatures wargaming other than Star Wars, which will feature jedi space marines in power armor fighting with blasters and lightsabers while X-wings and Thunderhawks dogfight in the skies above. In the grim darkness of the far future there is only Star Wars.
Haruspex wrote: Within 20 years Citadel will have been purchased by Disney and all GW IP will be folded into the Star Wars brand. There will be no miniatures wargaming other than Star Wars, which will feature jedi space marines in power armor fighting with blasters and lightsabers while X-wings and Thunderhawks dogfight in the skies above. In the grim darkness of the far future there is only Star Wars.
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