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 odinsgrandson wrote:
How did AT-43 make your list? Hasn't it been defunct for years now?

As to the ones in question- Malifaux I think is going to be going strong for a long time.


There are a lot of supported games missing from your list. Things like Wrath of Kings or Arena Rex.

Pretty sure he is going with:

He likes the game = It's gonna survive....

Considering that Age of Stockholders makes his list... I am tempted to simply invert it to increase accuracy.

The Auld Grump

I think Magic will still be strong in 20 years; I think predicting more than 5 years ahead for any miniature game, though, is impossible. Even Malifaux, which I think is the best and I love it, has no guarantee to last that long.

 PsychoticStorm wrote:
In 20 years time it is extremely difficult to make any logical predictions, the time frame is too vast and the current state of social and technological changes are too fast to make any solid predictions.

This. Remember, the miniature gaming scene may be completely different. 3D printers, Microsoft Hololenses, and stuff we can't even imagine will probably make the environment where kids scoff at the old codgers playing physical figures that they (gasp!) painted.

At a minimum, 3D printing will probably disrupt all the major miniature companies where sales of figures are their primary revenue generators. Even if there is some DRM equivalent that prevents people from distributing and copying 3D models for games freely, don't see historical companies like Warlord or Flames of War lasting. Can't copyright historical stuff.

The games who's rules remain fun, fresh, and balanced. As well as the companies that price their games competitively, and communicates with their communities.

leopard wrote:
+ lots for Star Fleet Battles, just wish I could find someone to play it against.

I feel you there, bro. I have a ton of the expansion modules for SFB, and I was working on teaching my younger brother to play (until he lost interest), but I don't know anyone else around who plays.

Back on topic, I have to wonder if miniatures games will even exist at all in 20 years. It seems kids these days only want to play video games. I like video games, too, but I also enjoy playing a game where thinking is more important than dexterity or hand-eye coordination. Miniatures games are already a niche hobby, and I don't see that changing. The only way that may change is if someone introduces a "cool" miniatures game (as in the miniatures equivalent to Magic or Pokemon cards), something that ends up being more mainstream and can be bought at regular stores like Wal-Mart or Target.

Not sure about current games, in 20 years we may all be in VR or playing with stones like our ancestors,

Those with big franchises (Disney star wars) behind them have a chance, like X-wing or well run companies, like PP, warlord games and corvus belli i see a long future, some companies i don't know.

Only one I can see about in the future is FFGs Star Wars line, for obvious reasons, the rest of us will have moved on to holograms or something

 Polonius wrote:

 kronk wrote:
Confrontation 4Life!

Rackham Rules!

That game didn't just lose momentum... it hit a brick wall. I've never seen a game with so much potential implode so fast. It had a huge, gorgeous model range!

The company made some rather silly decisions.... Oh Snake man with Umbrella why do you haunt me.....I'm sorry I never got you....


I can't see GW lasting 20 years sorry not with who's there now. It needs radical upper management changes to survive and it won't because it's a certain persons cash cow.


I remember I think it was 2003? GW went to wall Mart with the idea of selling there products through them.

You know they wanted an entire isle? Just for themselves? And they wanted Wall Mart to adhere to their price structures.

Needless to say the meeting ended with Wall Mart laughing them out of it.

 Jehan-reznor wrote:
Not sure about current games, in 20 years we may all be in VR or playing with stones like our ancestors,

Those with big franchises (Disney star wars) behind them have a chance, like X-wing or well run companies, like PP, warlord games and corvus belli i see a long future, some companies i don't know.

Think I agree with this.

The strong franchises will survive in one form or another, because they will live regardless of bad support or gakky games. Even if FFG suddenly stopped releasing Star Wars stuff for 10 years, another company could pick it up at that point and do something with it. People are still hankering after the Aliens vs. Predator stuff, despite a decade of generally poor movies and the most hilariously bad customer relations on the part of Prodos, and that's entirely down to the strong popularity and evocative nature of the franchise.

You would like to think that companies that are conscientious, try and give the customer what they want and are generally interested in producing something regarded as quality within their craft will survive, although sadly that is not always the case. This is something that applies beyond wargaming.

You know I remember a game about some cthuhlu type monsters that had minis back in 1998 that kinda died very fast

Like within a year?

But who knows we may have 3d printer's by then and just print things to paint out (20 years)

Yeah I can't believe how Prodros acts to people it was kinda odd. It put me of the starcraft game even before it dropped.

Edit spelling

Kings of War is a very strong contender, for one reason - entirely miniatures agnostic, doesn't matter what company you buy from, there will always be 28mm fantasy miniatures for sale.

DBM/Hordes of the Things has been going for ages as a result of simply being a rules-only thing where you can use any mini you own.

Anything that wizkids makes or pre-paints can be ruled out, they attract a different crowd to regular wargamers a lot of the time.

I would say for definite:

- 40k
- Warmachine
- Infinity
- Kings of War

Anything beyond that isn't a huge certainty.

You should always get what you need for two players to play for any miniature game you really like to play, because guess what; it will probably be unsupported very, very soon.

None.

Some may still be limping around with small, niche market groups, but as a game with broad appeal? None of them.

 silent25 wrote:

 PsychoticStorm wrote:
In 20 years time it is extremely difficult to make any logical predictions, the time frame is too vast and the current state of social and technological changes are too fast to make any solid predictions.

This. Remember, the miniature gaming scene may be completely different. 3D printers, Microsoft Hololenses, and stuff we can't even imagine will probably make the environment where kids scoff at the old codgers playing physical figures that they (gasp!) painted.

At a minimum, 3D printing will probably disrupt all the major miniature companies where sales of figures are their primary revenue generators. Even if there is some DRM equivalent that prevents people from distributing and copying 3D models for games freely, don't see historical companies like Warlord or Flames of War lasting. Can't copyright historical stuff.

Im still not convinced that 3D printers will disrupt the gaming industry all that much. Even if printers do reach that level of speed and detail accuracy (most developments so far are focused on accuracy at the expense of speed mind you), and the cost of the printing material comes down, there are still numerous developments underway within the manufacturing industry that will further drop the price of plastic injection molding. Its also worth remembering that the production cost of a plastic injection molded model (exclusive of the cost of mold tooling, as you cannot factor that cost in without knowing your total volume of output) is many orders of magnitude less than the cost of a 3d printed product. You're talking a few seconds and some pocket change in time & materials cost to make a box of space marines, whereas (currently) to print that box of marines to the same level of detail you would be talking a hundred dollars or more in materials costs and hours of time. The big balancing factor (right now) that gives the perception of a 3D printer one day challenging more conventional methods is that those molds currently cost thousands of dollars (which wouldnt be as big an issue if more people purchased them), but in the next 20 years you can expect the majority of that cost to disappear once some of the new die-making materials and processes hit the market (ironically, some of that technology has been enabled via 3D printing). The end result is that conventional manufacturers who don't want to go digital can drop prices while retaining margins and thus make it not worthwile to print (basically, if its more expensive to print it yourself, you have no incentive not to buy a boxed product, unless you're doing it for the sheer novelty of it).

The one area, however, that I think 3D printing *will* change the industry, is that it will drop the barrier of entry for new indy developers to get their product out there, as they wont have to invest in some of the sunk costs associated with manufacturing, storing, and transporting their own physical goods if they can sell print licenses to customers instead. However, as they grow these developers will have strong incentive to pursue manufacturing for their product lines as the profit margins on industrially produced goods will be much much higher than the profit margins on license sales (because remember, if you're selling a license to print a model, your customer still has to pay to produce it. GW couldn't charge you $50 (thats how much a 10 man unit of marines costs these days, right?) for a one time print license on a unit of marines if you then had to spend another $30 on materials to print that unit, otherwise they would price themselves out pretty quickly. Instead, they could charge you $20 for that print license, and you would pay the other $30 in materials to keep price parity, which doesn't sound too bad for them, until you realize GWs costs (exclusive of their ridiculous insistence of maintaining their own fleet of stores as sales portals) to produce, transport, and store that box of Space Marines is currently between $5 and $10, meaning that they would actually be losing money if they pursued that avenue.

Aren't 3D printers large and costs tens to hundreds of thousands of pounds?

All that to stick it to GW and spend a ton of time printing your own space marines? Just buy a box from GW.

Also a big part of the value in GW is their IP and the fluff/world they created. That's the only reason I play 40k. You can't 3D print that away. They can still survive on rulebooks, novels, and gaming supplies. Also all the licensing fees from video games and boardgames.

I think Warmachine/40k for sure. Kings of War? Aren't they only a few years old? Do they even have any tournaments at conventions like Adepticon?

DorianGray wrote:

I think Warmachine/40k for sure. Kings of War? Aren't they only a few years old? Do they even have any tournaments at conventions like Adepticon?

Yes, for a few years now.

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

DorianGray wrote:
I mean supported. New editions new units books etc

Whens the next edition of chess out? I'm not buying a new copy until its revised.

And what about the Codex:White Pieces. Sheesh, is that over-powered. Perhaps they will finally released a new Codex: Black Pieces, which has not been updated for centuries. It can include some new piece, one that occupies 4 squares, and is twice the height of the queen. Four whole squares! That'll balance things...

20 years is far too long a time range given the rapid changes we are seeing. For all we know, physical miniatures will be gone, and we'll use holograms.

Lets all wait and see.

chaos0xomega wrote:
snip

Remember we are talking 20 years from now. So costs will be on a very different level from what they are at now. I remember less than 20 years ago CD burners costing thousands, now they are an obsolete technology and the next generation (technically two generations) of burners for Bluerays are only $50 - 60US. Yes, printers are slow now, but there will likely be improvements in speed over the next 20 years. Plus I don't necessarily see everyone with a printer in a home, but instead more akin to placing an order with a "print shop" and either have the order mailed out or picked up. My local UPS store already has a coupe 3D printers and have them print the stuff and pick it up there. With most games just needing 10 - 20 figs, placing an order with a shop and picking it up the next day doesn't seem that far fetched. Yes resin is expensive for a lot of these printers, but remember, these are proprietary resins and I know a couple of them have patents on the formulas. Those patents will have expired by then driving the cost down and will be the same costs as most bulk resins. The resin I use for casting is $45US per 1/2 gallon and I can tell you that makes A LOT.

While GW would charge $50US for 10 marines, a lot of other companies wouldn't. The costs would be far lower, especially when they no longer have any production costs past sculpting. You would probably see $10US for 10 figs, but that is only for the print file. The printing costs would be pushed on the consumer. There you would even see cost differences as some people would pay more for slower high quality prints while others would pay for a fast, quick low resolution prints. The fast print armies would become the equivalent of the quick assembled and glued unpainted armies we see today. Complete with mold lines, glue splots, and sprue tabs.

But I don't disagree with you notion that it will allow faster entry into the market for companies. Your really seeing that today with the ease to bring sculpts to reality and production. Plus I agree that you will see sooner improved manufacturing techniques due to 3D printing. 3D printed molds for plastic extrusions are already happening. While the quality is poor now, I can only see it getting better. I only think at a certain point, it will become more affordable to have the consumer produce the figures locally instead of at a factory for storage and distribution.

I don't think X-wing will be around for another 5 years let alone 20. There are only so many decent Starfighters in the Galactic Civil War/Immediate Post Galactic Civil War EU and FF is already scraping the bottom of the barrel with this new wave.

Unless they do Clone Wars, Old Republic and 25 ABY out. Then I could see them going until 2025.

Licensed games only last a few years until it runs out. If they are picked up by another company they reboot it and its a different game entirely.

They don't count I'm talking about one continuous chain where you could even use the same minis 20 years from today.

 TheCustomLime wrote:
I don't think X-wing will be around for another 5 years let alone 20. There are only so many decent Starfighters in the Galactic Civil War/Immediate Post Galactic Civil War EU and FF is already scraping the bottom of the barrel with this new wave.

Unless they do Clone Wars, Old Republic and 25 ABY out. Then I could see them going until 2025.

I hated the prequels, but I love the ship designs. If X-Wing brings in Clone Wars (Which I heard they can't) then it would jump higher up in my game priority.

X-Wing seems to be cooling off a lot around here. Unless the new movies bring a lot to the table, they seem to be really stretching to come up with stuff for 'waves' now. I wonder about Armada too, given that it has even less to work with.

Games that have a limited use of the IP like star wars will always fade out much faster. The ability to keep things new and exciting goes away once its all been done. If its a companies own original IP that they can keep building and changing to keep the game fresh, those stand the test of time. Assuming they crap on the IP like AOS

Well, i am really unsure AoS will be around. WHFB had an unique setting - on one hand they had all the classic fantasy tropes (elves, dwarves, orks, humans,...) plus some unique armies (lizzardmen, skaven...) with an extensive background story for the immersive experience. AoS is some very very strange pseudo-fantasy-post-apocalypse stuff. You have to like the models to like the game, since it has no intrinsic appeal from the background as far as I am concerned. If I were to start a new system, I'd take almost any other setting - vikings, steampunk, classic high fantasy, whatever but what GW churned out. I have my doubts AoS will be popular. It might be around subsidized by 40k, but that aint likely.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

DorianGray wrote:
Aren't 3D printers large and costs tens to hundreds of thousands of pounds?

They were - some years ago. You can get a pretty decent 3D desktop printer for around 300$ now. Not tabletop 28mm quality, but pretty close, good enough for vehicles at any rate. And you'll probably get tabletop quality for 100$ five years from now

DorianGray wrote:
Aren't 3D printers large and costs tens to hundreds of thousands of pounds?

All that to stick it to GW and spend a ton of time printing your own space marines? Just buy a box from GW.

Also a big part of the value in GW is their IP and the fluff/world they created. That's the only reason I play 40k. You can't 3D print that away. They can still survive on rulebooks, novels, and gaming supplies. Also all the licensing fees from video games and boardgames.

I think Warmachine/40k for sure. Kings of War? Aren't they only a few years old? Do they even have any tournaments at conventions like Adepticon?

They are getting a lot cheaper and better all the time.

However the analogy has to be with 2D printers. Lots of people have them, but only enthusiasts use them to print out photos, and no-one uses them to print out novels because it is cheaper and more convenient to buy professionally printed books.

I agree that 3D printing will make it much quicker for small firms to prototype models and to print them on demand as a boutique business.

GW will probably be around because it's public and has shown to be profitable (albeit at low margins) so some private equity firm will snatch it up take it private and re-IPO it.

There is a ton of value in the 40k IP. It's like battletech except much better. It'll be around when our kids grow up.

War machine maybe. The rest highly doubtful.

DorianGray wrote:
GW will probably be around because it's public and has shown to be profitable (albeit at low margins) so some private equity firm will snatch it up take it private and re-IPO it.

There is a ton of value in the 40k IP. It's like battletech except much better. It'll be around when our kids grow up.

War machine maybe. The rest highly doubtful.

So were a lot of other companies with more resources and market influence in their respective markets. It only takes one really bad decision or a few terrible quarters to bring a company down. Once the cash reserves are gone, poof.

As for games still around in 20 years, it's hard to say, I honestly think 40k will still be around, possibly WM/H, that's about it.

 totalfailure wrote:
X-Wing seems to be cooling off a lot around here. Unless the new movies bring a lot to the table, they seem to be really stretching to come up with stuff for 'waves' now. I wonder about Armada too, given that it has even less to work with.

I think Armada has a lot of problems that will doom it long before they dredge up obscure ship designs. In my opinion, the scale is too large and they are focusing too much on non-iconic ships. Why oh why didn't they put an ISD in the starter box along with some Nebulon-B Frigates/Corellian Corvettes. I understand that ISDs at that scale would've made the starter too costly but that brings me to my next point: The scale. The ships are too damned big for the game's own good. Super Star Destroyers are out of the question and the iconic ISD will probably be a "Apoc level" ship. A smaller scale would've allowed for larger fleet actions and for the big boys to get into the fight without making the game unwieldy.

Well considering the ISD is supposed to be out by the end of the year and from what we know not at all an "apoc" level ship, youd be wrong, though I do agree they should have gone smaller scale and put the ISD in the starter.